matlab數(shù)學建模章節(jié)詳解corporate finance老師chpt

1、Corporate Finance Ross Westerfield JaffeSixth EditionSixth Edition26Chapter Twenty Six Corporate Financial Models and Long-Term PlanningChapter Outline26.1 What is Corporate Financial Planning?26.2 A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients26.3 What Determines Growth?26.4 Some Caveats of Financial

2、Planning Models26.5 Summary & Conclusions26.1 What is Corporate Financial Planning?It formulates the method by which financial goals are to be achieved.There are two dimensions:A Time FrameShort run is probably anything less than a year.Long run is anything over that; usually taken to be a two-year

3、to five-year period.A Level of AggregationEach division and operational unit should have a plan.As the capital-budgeting analyses of each of the firms divisions are added up, the firm aggregates these small projects as a big project.26.1 What is Corporate Financial Planning?Scenario AnalysisEach div

4、ision might be asked to prepare three different plans for the near term future:A Worst CaseA Normal CaseA Best CaseWhat Will the Planning Process plish?InteractionsThe plan must make explicit the linkages between investment proposals and the firms financing choices.OptionsThe plan provides an opport

5、unity for the firm to weigh its various options.FeasibilityAvoiding SurprisesNobody plans to fail, but many fail to plan.26.2 A Financial Planning Model: The IngredientsSales forecastPro forma statementsAsset requirementsFinancial requirementsPlugEconomic assumptionsSales ForecastAll financial plans

6、 require a sales forecast. Perfect foreknowledge is impossible since sales depend on the uncertain future state of the economy.Businesses that specialize in macroeconomic and industry projects can be help in estimating sales.Pro Forma StatementsThe financial plan will have a forecast balance sheet,

7、a forecast e statement, and a forecast sources-and-uses-of-cash statement.These are called pro forma statements or pro formas.Asset RequirementsThe financial plan will describe projected capital spending. In addition it will the discuss the proposed uses of net working capital.Financial Requirements

8、The plan will include a section on financing arrangements. Dividend policy and capital structure policy should be addressed.If new funds are to be raised, the plan should consider what kinds of securities must be sold and what methods of issuance are most appropriate.PlugCompatibility across various

9、 growth targets will usually require adjustment in a third variable.Suppose a financial planner assumes that sales, costs, and net e will rise at g1. Further, suppose that the planner desires assets and liabilities to grow at a different rate, g2. These two rates may be patible unless a third variab

10、le is adjusted. For example, compatibility may only be reached is outstanding stock grows at a third rate, g3.Economic AssumptionsThe plan must explicitly state the economic environment in which the firm expects to reside over the life of the plan.Interest rate forecasts are part of the plan.A Brief

11、 ExampleThe Rosengarten Corporation is think of acquiring a new machine. The machine will increase sales from $20 million to $22 million10% growth.The firm believes that its assets and liabilities grow directly with its level of sales. Its profit margin on sales is 10%, and its dividend-payout ratio

12、 is 50%.Will the firm be able to finance growth in sales with retained earnings and forecast increases in debt?A Brief ExampleCurrent Balance SheetPro forma Balance Sheet(millions)ExplanationCurrent assets$6$6.630% of salesFixed assets$24$26.4120% of salesTotal assets$30$33150% of salesShort-term de

13、bt$10$1150% of salesLong-term debt$6$6.630% of salesCommon stock$4$4ConstantRetained Earnings$10$11.1Net eTotal financing$30$32.7$300,000Funds neededA Brief Example: EFNThe external funds needed The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet:Express balance-sheet items that vary with sales as a

14、percentage of sales.Multiply the percentages determine in step 1 by projected sales to obtain the amount for the future period.When no percentage applies, simply insert the previous balance-sheet figure into the future period.The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet: (continued)Compute Pro

15、jected retained earnings asProjected retained earnings = Present retained earnings + Projected net e Cash dividendsAdd the asset accounts to determine projected assets. Next, add the liabilities and equity accounts to determine the total financing; any difference is the shortfall. This equals the ex

16、ternal funds needed.Use the plug to fill EFN.26.3 What Determines Growth?Firms frequently make growth forecasts on explicit part of financial planning.On the other hand, the focus of this course has been on shareholder wealth maximization, often expressed through the NPV criterion.One way to reconci

17、le the two is to think of growth as an intermediate goal that leads to higher value.Alternatively, if the firm is willing to accept negative NPV projects just to grow in size, the shareholders (but not necessarily the mangers) will be worse off.26.3 What Determines Growth?There is a linkage between

18、the ability of a firm to grow and its financial policy when the firm does not issue equity.The Sustainable Growth Rate in Sales is given by:The Sustainable Growth Rate in Sales T = ratio of total assets to salesp = net profit margin on salesd = dividend payout ratioA good use of the sustainable grow

19、th rate is to compare a firms sustainable growth rate with their actual growth rate to determine if there is a balance between growth and profitability.Uses of the Sustainable Growth RateA commercial lender would want to compare a potential borrowers actual growth rate with their sustainable growth

20、rate. If the actual growth rate is much higher than the sustainable growth rate, the borrower runs the risk of “growing broke” and any lending must be viewed as a down payment on a much more comprehensive lending arrangement than just one round of financing. 26.4 Some Caveats of Financial Planning ModelsFinancial planning models do not indicate which financial polices are the best.They are often simplifications of realityand the world can change in unexpected ways.Without some sort of plan, the firm may f