企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)

1、PPT模板下載：/moban/ 行業(yè)PPT模板：/hangye/ 節(jié)日PPT模板：/jieri/ PPT素材下載：/sucai/PPT背景圖片：/beijing/ PPT圖表下載：/tubiao/ 優(yōu)秀PPT下載：/xiazai/ PPT教程： /powerpoint/ Word教程： /word/ Excel教程：/excel/ 資料下載：/ziliao/ PPT課件下載：/kejian/ 范文下載：/fanwen/ 試卷下載：/shiti/ 教案下載：/jiaoan/ 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)2第一部分風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)第1章 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 第2章 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 第3章 保險(xiǎn) 第4章 影響保險(xiǎn)合同的基本因素

2、 第5章 保險(xiǎn)合同的內(nèi)容及其分析3第一章 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)41.1 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的本質(zhì)Risk: variability in future outcomes， which means outcomes may differ from expectations.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一種客觀存在的、損失的發(fā)生具有不確定性的狀態(tài)。5風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義的三個(gè)要點(diǎn)(1) risk is a state. 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一種狀態(tài)。不論人們是否意識(shí)到，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都是客觀存在的。(2)risk has something to do with loss. 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是與損失相關(guān)的狀態(tài)。(3)uncertainty. 損失的發(fā)生具有不確定性。6兩個(gè)概念speculativ

3、e risk 投機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn): 既存在損失的可能性又存在獲利的可能性。三種可能： 損失、無(wú)變化或獲利。pure risk 純粹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)： 只有損失機(jī)會(huì)而無(wú)獲利機(jī)會(huì)。 兩種可能： 損失、無(wú)損失。71.2 對(duì)待風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的態(tài)度81.3 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量損失發(fā)生的頻率frequency ,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失發(fā)生的嚴(yán)重程度severity，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的不確定性和損失的嚴(yán)重性，構(gòu)成了人們對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重視程度。9損失概率10(1)均值根據(jù)概率分布，可計(jì)算樣本平均數(shù)11(2)變化性12相同的均值,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。不同的均值, 則看coefficient of variance離散系數(shù)。離散系數(shù),則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。13大數(shù)定律 LAW OF LARGE N

4、UMBERS As a sample of observations is increased in size, the relative variation about the mean declines.14The Law of Large Numbers For any e 0, Pr L-m e 0 as N . .15Risk Pooling ExampleConsider 1 individual, facing the following loss distribution: Loss Prob $0 0.8 $2,500 0.2E(Loss) = $500Std (Loss)

5、= 1,000161 Individual $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.10.0 17Suppose that 2 individuals, facing the same loss distribution. Pooled Losses Avg Losses Prob $0 $0 0.64 $2,500 $1,250 0.16 $2,500 $1,250 0.16 $5,000 $2,500 0.04 E(Loss) = $500 Std (Loss) = 707.1

6、0 182 Individuals $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 19Suppose that 3 individuals, facing the same loss distribution. Pooled Losses Avg Losses Prob 0 0 0.5122,500 833.33 0.128 2,500 833.33 0.128 2,500 833.33 0.128 5,000 1,666.67 0.032 5,000 1,666.67 0.032 5,000 1,666.67 0.032 7,500 2,500.00

7、0.008 E(Loss) = $500 Std (Loss) = 577.352021222324The Covariance協(xié)方差measures the relationship between two random variables.It is computed as Cov (X, Y) = S pi (xi -mx) (yi -my) = sx,y = E(x -m x)(y -my) E (x -mx)(y -my) = E(XY) -mxmy Cov (X, X) = Var(X) The correlation coefficient between X and Y is

8、computed as r = sx,y/s xsy 25Properties of Variances:26Cov(X,X)=Var(X)Cov(X,Y)Cov(Y,X)Cov(Y,Y)=Var(Y)Cov(X,X)Cov(X,Y)Cov(X,Z)Cov(Y,X)Cov(Y,Y)Cov(Y,Z)Cov(Z,X)Cov(Z,X)Cov(Z,Z)272829 An Example: Suppose that an insurance company insures the following group of 20 policies: 20 satellites, each with mi =

9、m = $10m (for all i) and si = s = 100m.Let Xi denote the random loss for satellite i. 30Suppose that the insurance company required actuarially fair premiums in exchange for full insurance. What is the probability that the insurance company goes under insolvency? P (Liabilities Assets) Answer: .5 31

10、Suppose that the load is 10% instead.P= 11. P (Liabilities Assets) Answer: 1 - .672 = .338 32 Example (Cont): Suppose that an insurance company insures the following group of policies: 100 satellites, each with mi = m = $10m (for all i) and si = s = 100m. Let Xi denote the random loss for satellite

11、i. 33Suppose that the load is 10% instead.P = 11.P (Liabilities Assets) = P ( Z 1) = 1 - .841345 = .1586 341.4 純粹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的要素35EXPOSURES 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)載體the property or person facing a condition in which loss or losses are possible.按照exposure風(fēng)險(xiǎn)載體來(lái)分類，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以分為人身?yè)p失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)產(chǎn)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與責(zé)任損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。36人身?yè)p失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)personal loss exposures由于所有的損失最終都是

12、要由人來(lái)承受的，因此，從某種意義上說(shuō)，所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損害對(duì)象都是個(gè)人。但是有一些損失更直接地影響到人身。37財(cái)產(chǎn)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)property loss exposures因財(cái)產(chǎn)發(fā)生損毀、滅失和貶值而使財(cái)產(chǎn)的所有權(quán)人遭受損失。這種損失既有direct loss直接損失，也有consequential loss引致?lián)p失。38責(zé)任損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)liability loss exposures人們的過(guò)失或侵權(quán)行為造成他人的財(cái)產(chǎn)損毀或人身傷亡，在法律上負(fù)有經(jīng)濟(jì)賠償責(zé)任或?qū)Υ诉M(jìn)行申訴。39PERILS 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故Perils are the immediate causes of loss.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故是損失的直接原因，如火

13、災(zāi)、地震、洪水、龍卷風(fēng)、雷電、盜竊、死亡、爆炸、疾病等等。可分為人為、自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故和insurable可保、noninsurable不可保風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故。40HAZARDS 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Hazards are the conditions that lie behind the occurrence of losses, increasing the probability of losses, their severity or both.促使和增加損失發(fā)生的頻率或嚴(yán)重程度的任何條件。有兩類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素：有形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素physical hazards和無(wú)形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素intangible hazards.41有

14、形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Physical hazards are the tangible conditions of the environment that affect the frequency and/or severity of loss. 導(dǎo)致?lián)p失發(fā)生的物質(zhì)方面的因素。如財(cái)產(chǎn)所在的地域、建筑結(jié)構(gòu)和用途等。42無(wú)形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Attitudes and culture (nonphysical conditions) also affect the probability and severity of loss.文化、習(xí)俗和生活態(tài)度等非物質(zhì)形態(tài)的因素也會(huì)影響損失發(fā)生的可能性和受損的程度。它包括道德

15、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素moral hazard和行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素morale hazard兩種。43風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素結(jié)構(gòu)圖44道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Moral hazards involve dishonesty on the part of insureds. In the context of insurance, moral hazards are conditions that encourage insureds to cause losses intentionally.人們以不誠(chéng)實(shí)、不良企圖或欺詐行為故意促使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故發(fā)生，或擴(kuò)大已發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故所造成的損失。在保險(xiǎn)的場(chǎng)合，道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要表現(xiàn)在投保人利用保險(xiǎn)謀取不正當(dāng)利益。

16、45行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Morale hazards, in contrast , do not involve dishonesty. Rather, morale hazards are attitudes of carelessness and lack of concern that increase the chance a loss will occur or increase the size of losses that do occur.由于人們行為上的粗心大意和漠不關(guān)心，易于引發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故發(fā)生的機(jī)會(huì)和擴(kuò)大損失的程度。461.5 對(duì)付風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法Methods of Handling Pur

17、e Risk47Avoidance回避Avoidance occurs when there is no possibility of the occurrence of some event. 人們?cè)O(shè)法回避損失發(fā)生的可能性。48回避的弊端(1)回避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有時(shí)是可能的，但是不可行。(2)回避某一類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能面臨另一類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(3)回避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能造成利益受損。49Loss Control損失控制Loss control represents those efforts designed to minimize the overall frequency and size of outcomes損失控制可

18、分為loss prevention 防損and loss reduction減損。5051Loss Financing 損失融資損失融資可通過(guò)自留和轉(zhuǎn)移來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。52Retention 自留Losses are paid from an individuals or organizations own funds. 自留即由企業(yè)或個(gè)人自己來(lái)承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。53人們自留某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因a.沒有意識(shí)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在，或?qū)︼L(fēng)險(xiǎn)的嚴(yán)重性估計(jì)不足，認(rèn)為自己不大會(huì)遭受這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所造成的損失。It wont happen to me.b.因?yàn)轱L(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能造成的損失在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是微不足道的，經(jīng)過(guò)慎重考慮決定自己承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。c. 全部或

19、部分地由自己來(lái)承擔(dān)某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比購(gòu)買保險(xiǎn)更經(jīng)濟(jì)和合算。54自保企業(yè) self insurance自留風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可行程度取決于損失預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性和補(bǔ)償損失的適當(dāng)安排。當(dāng)一個(gè)企業(yè)采用一種科學(xué)、合理的方法來(lái)自己承擔(dān)可保風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，這種企業(yè)為自保企業(yè)self insured。自保的優(yōu)點(diǎn)：可以節(jié)省開支; 由于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)自擔(dān)，收益自留，自保企業(yè)會(huì)積極主動(dòng)地對(duì)企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行控制，使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降至最低水平。缺點(diǎn)：防險(xiǎn)避險(xiǎn)技術(shù)和分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力不如專業(yè)保險(xiǎn)公司。55Transfer 轉(zhuǎn)移People still stay in the game but shift the financial aspects of risk to some

20、one else.人們?nèi)詤⑴c有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的事情，但將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移給其他人來(lái)承擔(dān)。565758在獨(dú)資形式下，由于企業(yè)不是獨(dú)立的法人，業(yè)主的個(gè)人財(cái)產(chǎn)不能與企業(yè)的財(cái)產(chǎn)相分離，業(yè)主對(duì)企業(yè)的債務(wù)負(fù)有無(wú)限責(zé)任。在合伙企業(yè)中，除了有限合伙人以外，如果沒有特別的約定，全體合伙人對(duì)于合伙的債務(wù)都將承擔(dān)無(wú)限連帶責(zé)任。即各個(gè)合伙人在企業(yè)的財(cái)產(chǎn)與他們個(gè)人的財(cái)產(chǎn)也是沒有分開的。59在公司這種組織形式中，企業(yè)是一個(gè)獨(dú)立的法人，股東的個(gè)人財(cái)產(chǎn)與企業(yè)的財(cái)產(chǎn)分離。企業(yè)如果經(jīng)營(yíng)失敗，股東的損失僅限于他們?cè)谠撈髽I(yè)中的投資部分。所以，公司是轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一種形式，它不會(huì)阻止損失的發(fā)生，但它將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)從股東個(gè)人那里轉(zhuǎn)移到了公司。606162Discus

21、sion Questions1、請(qǐng)針對(duì)駕駛汽車時(shí)存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，舉出exposures,perils and hazards, 以及如何管理這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。2、Some people with complete health insurance coverage tend to visit doctors more often than required. Is this tendency a moral hazard, a morale hazard, or simple common sense? Explain.63CaseOne medical practice that has been widely discussed in recent years involves “ defensive medicine ”, in which a doctor orders more medical tests and x-rays than she or he might have in the past-not because of the com