《統(tǒng)計學》(第四版)袁衛(wèi)第8章修改后的全部表格與圖形

1、第8章時間序列分析與預測全部表格和圖形（按書稿中順序）:表8.1 19782021年中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值GDP及人口數(shù)據(jù)年份國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值億元國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年增長率年末人口萬人年平均人口（萬人）人均GDP（元）123(4)5197896259956171979975429690119809870598124198110007299389198210165410086319831030081023311984104357103683695.20198510585110510419861075071066791987109300108404198811102611016319891127041118651

2、519.0019901143331135191644.0019911158231150781992117171116497199311851711784419941198501191844044.00199512112112048619961223891217551997123626123008199812476112419419991257861252747158.5020001267431262652001127627127185200212845312804020031292271288402004129988129608200513075613037220061314481311021

3、6499.70200713212913178920211328021324662021133450133126202113409113377120211347351344132021135404135070注：其中 國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值按當年價格計算，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年增長率按可比價格計算。資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫 。GOOOOO圖8.2中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值變動圖圖8.3中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年增長率變動圖表8.21990 2021年中國人均國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）及增長數(shù)據(jù)年份人均GDP（元）逐期土外長量元環(huán)比開展速度環(huán)比”速度定基開展速度定基增長速度1990一一一1991248.76115.

4、1315.13115.1315.131992418.33122.1022.10140.5840.581993687.27129.7429.74182.3882.3819944044.001045.64134.8734.87245.99145.9919951001.73124.7724.77306.92206.921996800.16115.8615.86355.59255.591997574.29109.829.82390.52290.521998375.85105.855.85413.38313.3819997158.50362.47105.335.33435.43335.432000699

5、.18109.779.77477.96377.962001764.03109.729.72524.43424.432002776.34109.009.00571.66471.6620031143.92112.1712.17641.24541.2420041793.61117.0117.01750.34650.3420051849.78115.0015.00862.86762.86200616499.702314.34116.3116.311003.63903.6320073669.76122.2422.241226.851126.8520213538.25117.5417.541442.071

6、342.0720211899.82108.018.011557.641457.6420214407.52117.2117.211825.731725.7320215182.74117.2717.272140.982040.9820213261.68109.279.272339.382239.38資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫. K020Q13 5 7 5 11 13 15 17 19 2 1 23 25 2729 31 33 35 37 41 4545 47圖8.4包含四種因素的時間序列圖形(a)線性長期趨勢的圖形4000(a)線性長期趨勢的圖形4000(b)非線性長期趨勢的圖形

7、圖8.5長期趨勢的圖形1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 3 3表8.3國家財政收入季度數(shù)據(jù)及移動平均數(shù)據(jù)（單位：億元）年份季度國家財政 收入（億 元）三次移動平均五次移動平均指標值逐期增長指標值逐期增長2021一季度14642.0一一一一二季度19324.217169.7一一一二季度17542.817955.5一四季度16999.418056.4101.02021一季度19627.1二季度23722.8二季度19689.8138.0四季度20041.02021一季度26125.825639.036二季度30750.2二季度24787.6258

8、71.5四季度22076.6-258.02021一季度29976.3二季度33819.130196.21572.22二季度26793.1一一四季度26621.6一一一一資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫. 。季度數(shù)據(jù)由月度數(shù)據(jù)匯總形成國家財政收入季度數(shù)據(jù)四次移動平均計算表（單位：億元）年份季度國家財政收入（億元）四次移動平邛均移正平均逐期增2021一二二四18373.482021一二20009.88二20770.28四22394.952021一3二25426.25二25935.1526897.78四2021一二28166.38三26四rlECDE1年份季良國霰財跋收入笆元）四次慘過

9、千詞答正平均q2g9軍一手度118設3二季叟19324. 24三季度17542. S5工季熨16999. 4F17127. 16年一李庠19627.115373. 37 S17750.3757二季度23722. 519171 02515923, 2S三季嚏19689. BF20009. 77519741. 4g四季嗔20041F29770.175工/曹J； aio2011 岸一季熨26125.822394. S52182,512511二季腎30750. ZP341Q1.723273. 37512三季度24787. 6.2542穴 15247S8,英513四季嚷22076. 6F25935. 0

10、525600. 614201年一季度29976. 3F886工 67526416. 3625Z J二季度33814.1&7E61.927281.2S7516三季度26793.1.28166, 3752791a. c57a17四季庠2667 L 629302,晚5MftL 4圖8.9 Excel四次移動平均輸出結(jié)果表8.5國家財政收入季度數(shù)據(jù)平滑值計算結(jié)果（單位：億元）年份季度國家財政收入社會消費品零售總額平滑值2021一季度一一一二季度14642.014642.014642.0二季度15110.216046.717919.5四季度15353.516495.517655.82021一季度1551

11、8.116646.717196.3二季度15929.017540.818897.9二季度16708.419395.422275.3四季度17006.519483.720465.52021一季度17310.019650.920218.3二季度30750.218191.521593.424338.6二季度19447.424340.428826.7四季度19981.424474.625999.32021一季度20210.923755.223253.4二季度21169.525621.527959.4二季度22434.428080.832061.2四季度22870.327694.528373.51 2

12、3 4 5 6 7 S 9 10 11 12 13 H 15T-國家財政收入（億元） 1 中=09 一10=0,7 -*-1-0=03圖8.10 不同平滑系數(shù)對序列修勻作用的比擬A 1tCDEFGKI 1 JE1轉(zhuǎn)件t國安卬敢也:C元;1 SturtT7 TTFir211幅線S13能4. 2回歸妹計43IT542. B nul tiple0. 8139745416999. 4R Square0. 6625536E19627.1Ad us：edOL 63B4S7&23732. 8棉ft讒差3230, 137L96E9. E16.g820011109部.ER-n10弱皿E肝SSHS3r f1211

13、247S7： 6回歸分折Z. 56E+CS* 號 5HEST. 4BSQi 01000134131222076- 6將141.511+08lOTh4aOB1413S9376.3典甘154. d PL+i. l.151433819.1,161526790.1I l: . 一:.泄工工t BtHtF-/aLuB LdREjr 9EUb：PEr 圜叔FT艮. US_LTR : ，1716段時1)72C EL 35. 024194S, 75B W 1184.1】削土編11664. i】印.我13K Variabl 932 7R57. d獷&-ri. 100124 B5LJE313H.ECI - 1；3

14、hLD6圖8.11 Excel趨勢方程擬合結(jié)果表8.6某企業(yè)某種產(chǎn)品銷售量及有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)單位：萬件時間序號t銷售量yt2年份季度第t年一季度-592825二季度-4284516二季度-332389四季度-249424第t+1年一季度-145551二季度062780二季度164851四季度268524第t+2年一季度368499二季度4731716二季度5702325Aa工ZlFUI/Jt時間（E啊學號tJDlffly就如皿ClTPLlt 129總EE 1102M1回后統(tǒng)計4tCc1 氐 4111 taxx-ai M3.677,七葉忤XZ -7X13OT 13, aD婚樂 MU O.MI47U TC

15、N,第3 TL圖8.13拋物線型趨勢的估計T-預測趨勢丫 T-銷售量Y圖8.14拋物線擬合曲線的圖形表8.7200 2021年中國貨幣和準貨幣（M2）供給量時間序號t年份貨幣和準貨幣（M2）供給量（億元）乂環(huán)比土銖y log(y)12000一5.12912200117.605.19953200216.875.26724200319.585.34485200414.866200517.575.47537200615.685.53868200716.745.60589202117.785.676810202127.585.782611202119.735.860812202117.325.9302

16、13202114.395.9886資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫. 一寬幣供應4實際值 *雄性擬合值招款啟聯(lián)擬臺里圖8.15貨幣供給量指數(shù)曲線趨勢與線性趨勢的比擬表8.8中國民航旅客周轉(zhuǎn)量（單位：億人公里）份年份、123456789101 1122021 年2021 年2021 年2021 年同月合計1341399.0同月平均334.6320.7334.2341.7335.9333.1389.7403.3360.1380.9346.9349.8季節(jié)指數(shù)0.94890.90970.94780.96920.95280.94481.10521.14381.02151.08040.983

17、90.9920資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫注:各月平均值為352.56圖8.16民航旅客周轉(zhuǎn)量季節(jié)指數(shù)變動圖形表8.9表8.9中國民航旅客周轉(zhuǎn)量 季節(jié)比率計算表單位：億人公里月份 年份1234567891011122 02 1客運周轉(zhuǎn)量Y 移動平均MY/M266.3一 一253.1一一264.3一 一272.9一 一266.9一 一254.3一 一301.4324.4281.1314.80.970.942 021客運周轉(zhuǎn)量Y 移動平均MY/M302.1313.8315.81.020.98320.40.90344

18、.81.060.91328.82 021客運周轉(zhuǎn)量Y 移動平均MY/M357.5341.60.971.01363.7356.3411.5420.6386.5404.8371.7368.92 02 1客運周轉(zhuǎn)量Y 移動平均MY/M412.3399.40.940.97404.8392.7413.80.96一 一477.9一 一430.7一 一438.7一 一409.2一 一414.9一 一同月Y/M合計3.032.89682.922.903.303.392.983.1841同月Y/M平均1.010.960.990.9791.0650.94季節(jié)比率95.8598.8496.8

19、596.19109.45112.4498.84105.4794.2093.20資料來源：民航旅客周轉(zhuǎn)量圖8.17季節(jié)比率圖形表8.10 2021年中國民航旅客周轉(zhuǎn)量 消除季節(jié)變動計算表單位：萬元月份123456789101112原序列Y412.3374.4393.6404.8392.7395.4466.6477.9430.7438.7409.2414.9季節(jié) 指數(shù)100.5095.8598.1898.8496.8596.16109.45112.444105.4794.2093.50消除季 節(jié)艾動 的序列410.5391.1399.7408.5406.0411.8426.9424.6435.94

20、16.5435.4443.7表8.11年距開展速度與年距增長速度計算單位：萬元年份季度房間空氣調(diào)節(jié)器銷售量（萬臺）年距開展年距增長2000一季度一一二季度一一二季度一一四季度一一2001一季度二季度二季度四季度2002一季度二季度二季度四季度2003一季度二季度二季度四季度2004一季度二季度二季度四季度2005一季度二季度二季度四季度2006一季度二季度177二季度四季度2007一季度二季度二季度四季度2021一季度二季度二季度6四季度2021一季度二季度二季度四季度2021一季度二季度二季度四季度2021一季度二季度二季度四季度2021一季度二季度二季度四季度。房間空氣調(diào)節(jié)器銷售量季度數(shù)據(jù)

21、根據(jù)當年各季度累計數(shù)計算而得。圖8.19年距開展速度與年距增長速度循環(huán)波動圖形表 8.12循環(huán)受動值計算表單位：萬元年份季度房間空氣 調(diào)節(jié)器銷ft! Y季節(jié)指數(shù)S消除季節(jié)變動的序列T. C. I趨勢方程擬合值T循環(huán)和不規(guī)那么變動C. I移動平均后的循環(huán)父動C(2)3二1 / 245=3/4(6)2000一0.9267306.46409.56一一1.4364434.35467.080.9022二0.8829539.47524.610.9506四0.7539520.23582.130.90152001一0.9267500.59639.660.8595一1.4364629.00697.180.832

22、4二0.8829613.21754.710.7667四0.7539475.39812.230.72062002一0.9267664.40869.760.7741一1.4364902.39927.280.8434二0.8829781.06984.810.8010四0.7539663.621042.330.79882003一0.92671063.241099.860.8873一1.43641225.291157.380.9635二0.88291051.191214.911.0219四0.75391452.981272.431.06132004一0.92671565.021329.961.1849一

23、1.43641715.051387.481.2475二0.88291921.281445.011.2659四0.75391851.041502.531.25532005一0.92671879.031560.061.2315一1.43642035.301617.581.1044二0.88291424.511675.111.0886四0.75392005.171732.631.05702006一0.92672082.441790.161.1342一1.43641999.371847.681.0582二0.88291770.191905.211.0135四0.75392021.901962.731.

24、01952007一0.92672223.052021.261.0852一1.43642339.532077.781.0891二0.88292222.792135.311.0114四0.75391901.582192.831.00142021一0.92672466.392250.360.9797一1.43642252.512307.880.9849二0.88292088.122365.410.8299四0.75391528.722422.930.75702021一0.92671878.062480.460.7246一1.43641994.362537.980.8090二0.88292294.82

25、2595.510.7965四0.75391908.872653.030.83512021一0.92672443.832710.550.8516一1.43642584.172768.080.9627二0.88292975.312825.601.0154四0.75393054.782883.131.14392021一0.92673878.932940.651.1621一1.43643321.152998.181.1799二0.88293400.723055.701.0840四0.75393210.513113.231.09052021一0.92673574.403170.751.0411一1.43643114.593228.281.0185二0.88293165.933285.800.9937四0.75393519.833343.33一圖8.20中國房間空氣調(diào)節(jié)器銷售量的循環(huán)變動曲線表8.13 某縣20212021年各季度鮮蛋銷售量（單位：萬千克）一季度二季度二季度四季度2021 年2021 年2021 年2021 年表8.14高等學校國家財政教育經(jīng)