華星化工估值模型

1、,3,現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)估值（公司的自由現(xiàn)金流FCFF）,公司名稱,華星化工,代碼,002018,流通A股,2,000.00,流通B股,0.00,流通H股,0.00,總股本,6,500.00,A股股價(jià),7.17,B股股價(jià),0.00,H股股價(jià),0.00,分析日期,2006/04/18,匯率,1.00,匯率,1.06,假設(shè),數(shù)值,第二階段(2010-2017)年數(shù),8,第二階段增長率,0.50%,長期增長率,0.00%,應(yīng)付債券利率,0.00%,無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率Rf,5.00%,1.20 ,Rm,11.00%,Ke,12.20%,稅率,32.73%,Kd,3.79%,Ve,46,605.00,Vd,20,552

2、.08,WACC,9.63%,第一階段,2006E,2007E,2008E,2009E,2010E,FCFF,-5,234.40,5,472.26,10,466.73,12,028.23,12,747.72,第二階段,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2016E,2017E,FCFF,12,811.46 ,12,875.52 ,12,939.89 ,13,004.59 ,13,069.62 ,13,134.96 ,13,200.64 ,13,266.64 ,FCFF估值,現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)值（萬元）,價(jià)值百分比,第一階段,27,151.02,21.86%,第二階段

3、,50,047.99,40.29%,第三階段（終值）,47,005.30,37.85%,企業(yè)價(jià)值A(chǔ)EV,124,204.30,100.00%,+ 非核心資產(chǎn)價(jià)值,10,695.31,8.61%,少數(shù)股東權(quán)益,0.00,0.00%,都是凈現(xiàn)金流的概念,凈債務(wù),20,552.08,-16.55%,總股本價(jià)值,114,347.53,92.06%,股本（萬股）,6,500.00,每股價(jià)值（元）,17.59,敏感性測(cè)試,敏感性測(cè)試結(jié)果,長期增長率(g),WACC,-1.00%,-0.50%,0.00%,0.50%,1.00%,1.50%,2.00%,2.50%,3.00%,7.50%,22.07,22.

4、77,23.55,24.45,25.48,26.69,28.11,29.82,31.92,8.00%,20.62,21.20,21.86,22.61,23.46,24.45,25.59,26.95,28.58,8.50%,19.32,19.82,20.37,21.00,21.71,22.52,23.46,24.55,25.84,9.00%,18.15,18.58,19.05,19.58,20.18,20.86,21.63,22.52,23.56,9.50%,17.10,17.46,17.87,18.32,18.83,19.40,20.04,20.78,21.62,10.00%,16.14,16

5、.46,16.81,17.20,17.63,18.11,18.65,19.26,19.96,10.50%,15.27,15.54,15.85,16.18,16.55,16.96,17.42,17.93,18.52,11.00%,14.47,14.71,14.98,15.26,15.58,15.93,16.32,16.76,17.25,11.50%,13.74,13.95,14.18,14.43,14.71,15.01,15.34,15.72,16.13,12.00%,13.06,13.25,13.45,13.67,13.91,14.17,14.46,14.78,15.14,12.50%,12.

6、44,12.60,12.78,12.97,13.18,13.41,13.66,13.94,14.24,指標(biāo)說明：, EV=股權(quán)價(jià)值+債權(quán)價(jià)值現(xiàn)金, EBITDA EBIT 折舊 攤銷, EBIT 營業(yè)利潤財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用, NOPLAT EBIT （1所得稅率） EBIT 所得稅（只考慮核心業(yè)務(wù)，扣除非經(jīng)常性損益）, IC（invested capital） 股東權(quán)益 長期借款 短期借款 應(yīng)付債券 少數(shù)股東權(quán)益現(xiàn)金短期投資長期投資, ROIC NOPLAT / IC 100, OPFCF EBITDA 稅收 凈資本性支出 營運(yùn)資本的增加, WACC (KeVe)（KdVd） / (VeVd), Kd 債務(wù)成本 平均債務(wù)利率（1稅率）（短期借款短期借款利率長期借款長期借款利率長期應(yīng)付債券長期應(yīng)付債券利率）/（長期借款長期應(yīng)付債券）（1所得稅率）, Ve 股本價(jià)值 股價(jià)總股本（H股、B股按各自股價(jià)匯率轉(zhuǎn)換為人民幣計(jì)算，非流通股按A股計(jì)算）, Vd 債務(wù)價(jià)值短期借款長期借款應(yīng)付債券, Ke Rf + (RmRf) , 營運(yùn)資本 流動(dòng)資產(chǎn) 流動(dòng)負(fù)債, 公司自由現(xiàn)金流 FCFF EBIT（1-所得稅率）折舊資本支出非現(xiàn)金