專業(yè)估值模型-EXCEL模版

1、一般情景預測現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)估值（公司的自由現(xiàn)金流FCFF）公司名稱華魯恒升代碼600426流通A股17,232.00流通B股總股本25,050.00A股股價9.70B股股價分析日期2005/08/25匯率假設數(shù)值第二階段（2010-2017）年數(shù)第二階段增長率0.50%長期增長率0.00%應付債券利率0.00%無風險利率Rf5.00%P1.26Rm11.00%Ke12.56%稅率19.63%Kd4.80%Ve242,985.00Vd143,933.00WACC9.67%第一階段2005E2006E2007E2008EFCFF(2&532.11)17,311.3737,382.097&306.98第

2、一階段2010E2011E2012E2013EFCFF92,903.4393,367.9593,834.7994,303.97FCFF估值現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)值（萬元）價值百分比第一階段137,074.5917.23%第二階段340,756.9942.82%第三階段（終值）317,940.3939.95%企業(yè)價值AEV795,771.97100.00%+非核心資產(chǎn)價值36,577.004.60%少數(shù)股東權益0.000.00%凈債務143,933.00-18.09%總股本價值688,415.9786.51%股本（萬股）25,050.00每股價值（元）27.48敏感性測試敏感性測試結果WACC長期增長率（g

3、）-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%7.50%36.0637.3038.7140.328.00%33.3534.3935.5736.918.50%30.9331.8232.8133.939.00%28.7629.5230.3731.319.50%26.8127.4628.1828.9910.00%25.0425.6026.2226.9110.50%23.4323.9224.4625.0511.00%21.9622.3922.8523.3611.50%20.6220.9921.3921.8412.00%19.3819.7120.0620.4412.50%18.2418.5318.841

4、9.17指標說明：EV=股權價值+債權價值一現(xiàn)金EBITDA=EBIT+折舊+攤銷EBIT=營業(yè)利潤+財務費用NOPLAT=EBITX（1-所得稅率）=EBIT所得稅（只考慮核心業(yè)務，扣除非經(jīng)常性損益）IC（investedcapital）=股東權益+長期借款+短期借款+應付債券+少數(shù)股東權益一現(xiàn)金一短期投資一長期投資ROIC=NOPLAT/ICX100%OPFCF=EBITDA稅收一凈資本性支出一營運資本的增加WACC=（KeXVe）+（KdXVd）/（Ve+Vd）Kd=債務成本=平均債務利率（1稅率）=（短期借款X短期借款利率+長期借款X長期借款利率+長期應付債券X長期（1所得稅率）Ve=

5、股本價值=股價X總股本（H股、B股按各自股價X匯率轉換為人民幣計算，非流通股按A股計算）Vd=債務價值=短期借款+長期借款+應付債券Ke=Rf+0（RmRf）營運資本=流動資產(chǎn)一流動負債公司自由現(xiàn)金流FCFF=EBITx（1-所得稅率）+折舊一資本支出一非現(xiàn)金性流動資本變化股權資本自由現(xiàn)金流FCFE=稅前利潤x（1-所得稅率）+折舊一資本支出一非現(xiàn)金性流動資本變化+新增債務一債務償還資本支出=長期資產(chǎn)總值增加一無息長期負債增加=長期資產(chǎn)凈值增加+折舊與攤銷一無息長期負債增加(g)2009E92,441.232014E2015E2016E2017E94,775.4995,249.3695,725

6、.6196,204.241.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%42.1744.3446.9049.9753.7338.4440.2042.2544.6847.6035.2036.6538.3240.2742.5832.3733.5834.9536.5438.3929.8830.8932.0333.3434.8427.6728.5229.4830.5631.8025.7026.4227.2328.1429.1723.9224.5425.2325.9926.8622.3222.8523.4424.0924.8220.8621.3221.8322.3923.0119.5419.9420.3720.8521.39空常性損益）權益一現(xiàn)