一季度消費者EPS預覽

1、COREConsumer1Q20 “All Consumer” EPS Preview1Q earnings season will provide us with our first comprehensive cross-Staples view of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the sector. It will of course be interesting to see howINDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. CHPC & BeveragesNEUTRALUnchangedEquity Research16 April 202

2、0recent shopping behavior plays into top-line growth for the quarter (even though scanner data has already foreshadowed this for domestic businesses to some extent) as well as what could be in store for C2Q20. That said, perhaps more remarkable will be the conversation on profitability, where there

3、has been much less clarity and many moving parts including a reduction in assortment to focus on top SKUs (to maximize output), retailer led pull-back on promotions, near-term enhanced benefits for front line workers, and potential supply chain disruption/costs from running at maximum capacity, not

4、to mention any potential swings in input costs such as commodities and currency.Given the complex and fluid nature of the current environment, we will be keen to see how many of the Staples companies handle annual financial guidance. Within Food, it was not surprising that some names which stand to

5、benefit from pantry loading & that are largely through their fiscal years (such as GIS and CAG) updated (and raised) guidance, while others with greater exposure to the foodservice channel (LW and MKC) elected to withdraw full-year guidance. Separately, within HPC, ENR (set to report F2Q20) withdrew

6、 as well as COTY & EL (both to report on F3Q20), understandably given the channel exposure and more discretionary nature of their portfolios. And in Beverages, names with heavy exposure to the hard-hit on-premise channel and/or volatile currencies (KO, CCEP, TAP, STZ) have also pulled their full-yea

7、r guide. So, for reporting companies who have much less clarity beyond the next quarter in terms of how long “shelter in place” orders remain, how gradually those measures ultimately get lifted, what shopper behavior might look like once these restrictions are lifted, etc., we would not be surprised

8、 to see guidance continue to be withheld or bracket wide ranges.While investors typically roll their models over to the new year with summer earnings, with many already looking to CY21 as a better gauge of more normalized trends, we would expect commentary around longer-term plans and prospects to b

9、e equally important. Key considerations would be how portfolios are positioned for a consumer recession via the mix of premium vs value priced products and core staples vs more discretionary items as well as the potential for lasting changes in consumer behavior. For instance, in food, we believe th

10、e unanticipated trial opportunity as a result of stock-up behavior could end up either driving new users or bringing back lapsed ones on a more sustained, or “sticky”, basis provided such companies have recently found some success in making more substantive product quality or branding improvements o

11、r said another way, improving relevance. In Beverages, we are most intrigued by how companies might evolve to recreate out-of-home experiences in the comfort of consumer homes should remote working or some level of social distancing become the new norm. In HPC, we could see a focus on sanitation pre

12、sent new innovation opportunities across hygiene and think efficacy will be more of a focus over more “naturals” products. Well also be curious to see how companies that are in the midst of a turnaround or had planned a “reinvestment year” adjust those plans given the current environment.Importantly

13、, our revised EPS estimates for many of our covered companies are our best forecasts as of today, and with more clarity to come as companies report earnings we could well have cause to make further revisions. U.S. Food NEUTRAL UnchangedFor a full list of our ratings, price target and earnings change

14、s in this report, please see table on page 2.U.S. CHPC & BeveragesLauren R. Lieberman+1 212 526 3112 HYPERLINK mailto:lauren.lieberman lauren.lieberman BCI, USU.S. Food Andrew Lazar+1 212 526 4668 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.lazar andrew.lazar BCI, USTeam MembersKate Grafstein+1 212 526 5755 HYPERLINK m

15、ailto:kate.grafstein kate.grafstein BCI, USShirley C. Serrao, CFA+1 212 526 7518 HYPERLINK mailto:shirley.serrao shirley.serrao BCI, USJoshua Bader, CPA, CFA+1 212 526 3084 HYPERLINK mailto:joshua.bader joshua.bader BCI, USSamira Somany+1 212 526 4602 HYPERLINK mailto:samira.somany samira.somany BCI

16、, USal n rten I-d e tc itr sReBarclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Invest

17、ors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 96.Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)CompanyRatingOld New

18、DatePricePrice TargetEPS FY1 (E)EPS FY2 (E)OldNew %Chg Old New %Chg Old New %ChgU.S. CHPC & BeveragesNeu NeuChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD)UW UW 15-Apr-2020 72.0055.0065.00182.71 2.71-2.87 2.87-Coca-Cola European Partners PLC (CCEP)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 41.8939.0045.00152.46 2.29-72.58 2.39-7Coca-Cola E

19、uropean Partners PLC (CCEP SM / CCE.AS)OW OW 16-Apr-2020 37.8035.0041.00172.46 2.29-72.58 2.39-7Colgate-Palmolive (CL)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 72.6570.0070.00-2.93 2.73-73.13 2.93-6Coty Inc. (COTY)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 5.785.005.00-0.48 0.24-500.48 0.37-23Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC)UW UW 15-Apr-2020 2

20、6.4133.0027.00-182.96 2.96-2.78 2.58-7Energizer Holdings, Inc (ENR)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 34.2157.0047.00-183.09 2.90-63.65 3.42-6International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)UW UW 15-Apr-2020 117.38119.00101.00-156.24 6.02-46.69 6.39-4Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 137.67143.00143.00-7.30 7.3517

21、.68 7.731Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 44.6059.0046.00-223.86 3.67-54.27 3.94-8Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 12.7320.0017.00-151.53 1.38-101.69 1.49-12PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 135.03148.00136.00-85.88 5.72-36.30 6.16-2The Coca-Cola Company (KO)OW OW 15-A

22、pr-2020 47.6148.0056.00172.14 2.06-42.32 2.24-3The Este Lauder Companies (EL)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 157.79180.00180.00-5.44 4.92-105.90 5.86-1U.S. FoodNeu NeuB&G Foods (BGS)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 18.3515.0019.00271.62 1.7471.66 1.66-BellRing Brands (BRBR)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 15.9023.0021.00-90.64 0.6520.88 0.87-

23、1Campbell Soup (CPB)UW UW 15-Apr-2020 50.5047.0051.0092.60 2.85102.76 2.781Conagra Brands (CAG)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 32.8736.0037.0032.24 2.24-2.45 2.45-Hain Celestial (HAIN)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 25.2128.0028.00-0.73 0.73-0.90 0.88-2Kellogg Co. (K)UW UW 15-Apr-2020 62.9562.0064.0033.81 3.9024.06 3.98-2Lamb

24、Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 55.9156.0065.00162.69 2.69-2.76 2.76-McCormick & Co. (MKC)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 152.56 147.00 155.0055.12 5.12-5.60 5.60-Mondelez International (MDLZ)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 53.71 65.00 61.00-62.65 2.60-22.87 2.76-4Nomad Foods Ltd. (NOMD)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 19.17 23.0

25、0 22.00-41.21 1.21-1.26 1.26-Post Holdings, Inc. (POST)OW OW 15-Apr-2020 91.51 119.00 108.00-94.14 4.08-14.93 4.90-1The Hershey Company (HSY)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 142.60 152.00 152.00-6.22 6.14-16.66 6.61-1The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 115.40 112.00 119.0068.28 8.5338.36 8.390The Kraft

26、 Heinz Company (KHC)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 28.05 29.00 29.00-2.34 2.26-32.28 2.24-2TreeHouse Foods (THS)EW EW 15-Apr-2020 45.39 49.00 49.00-2.54 2.7372.78 2.73-2Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting

27、 currency. FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: NegativeTABLE OF CONTENTS HYPERLINK l

28、_TOC_250031 CONSOLIDATED BARCLAYS RESEARCH ESTIMATES 9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250030 CONSOLIDATED EARNINGS CALL INFORMATION 10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250029 1Q20 CHEAT SHEET 111Q20 CHEAT SHEET CONTINUED 121Q20 CHEAT SHEET CONTINUED 131Q20 CHEAT SHEET CONTINUED 141Q20 CHEAT SHEET CONTINUED 151Q20 CHEAT SHEET CON

29、TINUED 16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250028 04/17/20PROCTER & GAMBLE 17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250027 04/21/20THE COCA-COLA COMPANY 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250026 04/22/20KIMBERLY-CLARK 20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250025 04/23/20THE HERSHEY COMPANY 21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250024 04/28/20COCA-COLA EUROPEAN PARTNERS 22 HYPERLINK l _

30、TOC_250023 04/28/20MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL 24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 04/28/20PEPSICO INC. 26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 04/30/20CHURCH & DWIGHT 28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 04/30/20KELLOGG CO 30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 04/30/20THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY 32 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 04/30/20MOLSON COORS BREWIN

31、G COMPANY 33 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 05/01/20COLGATE-PALMOLIVE 35 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 05/01/20THE CLOROX COMPANY 37 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 05/01/20 THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES 38 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 05/01/20NEWELL BRANDS 40 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 WEEK OF 05/04/20B&G FOODS (TENTATIVE) 41 HYP

32、ERLINK l _TOC_250012 WEEK OF 05/04/20HAIN CELESTIAL (TENTATIVE) 42 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 WEEK OF 05/04/20KEURIG DR PEPPER (TENTATIVE) 43 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 WEEK OF 05/04/20REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS (TENTATIVE) 45 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 05/04/20INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES (TENTATIVE)

33、46 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 05/07/20BELLRING BRANDS 48 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 05/07/20ENERGIZER HOLDINGS 50 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 05/07/20EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY (TENTATIVE) 52 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 05/07/20NOMAD FOODS LTD. (TENTATIVE) 54 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 05/07/20POST HOLDINGS 56 H

34、YPERLINK l _TOC_250003 05/07/20TREEHOUSE FOODS 58 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 05/11/20COTY INC 59 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 WEEK OF 06/01/20CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY (TENTATIVE) 60 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 06/04/20THE J.M. SMUCKER COMPANY (TENTATIVE) 61CONSOLIDATED BARCLAYS RESEARCH ESTIMATES TickerCurrent Fis

35、c. QtrRelease DateBarclays EPS CurrentFisc. QtrCons. EPS CurrentFisc. Qtr$ Diffvs. Cons.Barclays EPS CurrentFisc. YrCons. EPSCurrent Fisc. Yr$ Diffvs. Cons.Barclays EPS ForwardFisc. YrCons. EPSForward Fisc. Yr$ Diffvs. Cons.PGF3Q2004/17/20$1.12$1.11$0.01$5.05$4.98$0.07$5.25$5.22$0.03KO1Q2004/21/20$0

36、.41$0.45($0.03)$2.06$2.00$0.06$2.24$2.21$0.03KMB1Q2004/22/20$2.06$2.00$0.06$7.35$7.34$0.01$7.73$7.70$0.03HSY1Q2004/23/20$1.73$1.69$0.04$6.14$6.16($0.01)$6.61$6.52$0.09CCEP1Q2004/28/20- 2.29 2.11 0.17 2.39 2.60( 0.21)MDLZ1Q2004/28/20$0.65$0.66($0.01)$2.60$2.62($0.02)$2.76$2.82($0.06)PEP1Q2004/28/20$1

37、.05$1.02$0.03$5.72$5.71$0.01$6.16$6.22($0.06)CHD1Q2004/30/20$0.77$0.77$0.00$2.71$2.69$0.02$2.87$2.87$0.00K1Q2004/30/20$0.96$0.90$0.06$3.90$3.80$0.10$3.98$3.98($0.00)KHC1Q2004/30/20$0.54$0.52$0.01$2.26$2.27($0.01)$2.24$2.29($0.06)TAP1Q2004/30/20$0.35$0.33$0.03$3.67$3.47$0.20$3.94$3.72$0.23CL1Q2005/01

38、/20$0.70$0.73($0.03)$2.73$2.89($0.15)$2.93$3.07($0.14)CLXF3Q2005/01/20$1.64$1.59$0.04$6.64$6.43$0.21$6.67$6.73($0.05)ELF3Q2005/01/20$1.07$0.87$0.20$4.92$4.92$0.00$5.86$5.82$0.04NWL1Q2005/01/20$0.08$0.05$0.03$1.38$1.35$0.03$1.49$1.48$0.01BGS1Q20Week of 05/04/20(Tentative)$0.44$0.42$0.02$1.74$1.68$0.0

39、6$1.66$1.70($0.04)HAINF3Q20Week of 05/04/20(Tentative)$0.25$0.24$0.01$0.73$0.72$0.01$0.88$0.90($0.02)KDP1Q20Week of 05/04/20(Tentative)$0.29$0.27$0.01$1.39$1.36$0.03$1.55$1.54$0.02REYN1Q20Week of 05/04/20 (Tentative)0.300.25$0.051.951.77$0.192.091.90$0.19IFF1Q2005/04/20 (Tentative)$1.61$1.59$0.02$6.

40、02$6.09($0.07)$6.39$6.67($0.28)BRBRF2Q2005/07/20$0.09$0.07$0.01$0.65$0.61$0.03$0.87$0.82$0.04ENRF2Q2005/07/200.390.36$0.032.902.91($0.01)3.423.45($0.04)EPCF2Q2005/07/20 (Tentative)$0.93$0.91$0.02$2.96$3.00($0.04)$2.58$3.05($0.47)NOMD1Q2005/07/20 (Tentative) 0.29 0.28 0.00 1.21 1.21 0.00 1.26 1.31( 0

41、.05)POSTF2Q2005/07/20$0.90$0.93($0.03)$4.08$4.28($0.20)$4.90$5.35($0.45)THS1Q2005/07/20$0.36$0.27$0.08$2.73$2.34$0.40$2.73$2.53$0.20COTYF3Q2005/11/20 (Tentative)($0.05)$0.03($0.08)$0.24$0.44($0.20)$0.37$0.57($0.20)CPBF3Q20Week of 06/01/20(Tentative)$0.78$0.60$0.18$2.85$2.63$0.22$2.78$2.75$0.03SJMF4Q

42、2006/04/20 (Tentative)$2.34$2.06$0.28$8.53$8.26$0.27$8.39$8.28$0.11Source: Barclays Research Estimates, Bloomberg* CCEP results will only include a trading update on revenuesCurrentReleaseReportingConferenceDial InDial InTickerFisc. QtrDateTime (ET)Call Time (ET)(US)(Intl)PasscodePGF3Q2004/17/207:00

43、 AM ET8:30 AM ET(888) 394-8218(323) 701-02256883616KO1Q2004/21/20BMO8:30 AM ET(877) 886-7523(262) 558-4760COKE IRKMB1Q2004/22/207:30 AM ET10:00 AM ET(877) 552-6208(334) 323-98714673#HSY1Q2004/23/20BMO8:30 AM ET(877) 407-3982(201) 493-678013697199CCEP1Q2004/28/202:00 AM ETTBATBATBA-MDLZ1Q2004/28/204:

44、05 PM ET5:00 PM ET(800) 322-9079(973) 582-2717-PEP1Q2004/28/206:00 AM ETTBATBATBA-CHD1Q2004/30/207:00 AM ET10:30 AM ET(877) 322-9846(631) 291-45392370535K1Q2004/30/208:00 AM ET9:30 AM ET(855) 209-8258(412) 542-4104-KHC1Q2004/30/20BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-TAP1Q2004/30/20BMO11:00 AM ETTBATBA-CL1Q2005/01/20

45、7:00 AM ET8:30 AM ETTBATBATBACLXF3Q2005/01/206:30 AM ET1:30 PM ETTBATBATBAELF3Q2005/01/206:45 AM ETTBATBATBA-NWL1Q2005/01/206:30 AM ET11:00 AM ET(800) 367-2403(334) 777-69782361782BGS1Q20Week of 05/04/20AMC4:30 PM ETTBATBA-HAINF3Q20Week of 05/04/20BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-KDP1Q20Week of 05/04/20BMOTBATBA

46、TBA-REYN1Q20Week of 05/04/20(Tentative)7:00 AM ET8:30 AM ETTBATBA-IFF1Q2005/04/20 (Tentative)AMCTBATBATBA-BRBRF2Q2005/07/20AMC10:30 AM ET (nextday)(833) 954-1568(409) 216-65837392288COTYF3Q2005/11/20 (Tentative)6:30 AM ETTBATBATBA-ENRF2Q2005/07/206:55 AM ET11:00 AM ETTBATBA-EPCF2Q2005/07/20 (Tentati

47、ve)6:00 AM ETTBATBATBA-NOMD1Q2005/07/20 (Tentative)BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-POSTF2Q2005/07/20AMC9:00 AM ET (nextday)(877) 540-0891(678) 408-40077265844THS1Q2005/07/20BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-CPBF3Q20Week of 06/01/20(Tentative)BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-SJMF4Q2006/04/20 (Tentative)BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-CONSOLIDATED EAR

48、NINGS CALL INFORMATION(Tentative)(Tentative) (Tentative)1Q20 CHEAT SHEETC1Q20TickerBarclaysConsensusDifference Notes on EPS DifferencesWhat Investors Care About This Quarter?Barclays One-Liner- Impact from consumer stockpiling on organic sales growth P&G was a Best in Class Consumer Staples company

49、prior to COVID-PG$1.12$1.11$0.01KO$0.41$0.45($0.03)Were above Consensus on revenues and marginsprofitability as top-line comes under pressure- Raw material supply especially with regards to CO2System and KOs access to liquidity to meet cash demands as it weathers through this stormWe believe were ab

50、ove- Covid impact on Consumer Tissue & KCPAs we parse through how Covid-19 could impact K-Cs fundamentalsKMB$2.06$2.00$0.06Consensus on gross- Operating leverage on profitabilitywe expect a sustained uptick in the Consumer Tissue business to offsetmargins- Updated 2020 guidancea downturn for the K-C

51、 Professional business.- 2020 guidance- Organic top-line benefit from pantry loadingWe are well above the- Commentary on the benefit from stay at home ordersWhile we would expect the quarter to benefit from pantry loading seenStreet on organic revenuebeyond the initial stock upin March, more interes

52、ting to us will be the companys Easter holidayHSY$1.73$1.69$0.04growth (+200bps) but- Easter expectationsperformance as well as how it foresees the future impact from reducedslightly below on operating- Profit flow through from sales liftstore traffic (convenience store closures, et al) and greater

53、industry e-margins (-10bps)- Potential impact moving forward on the confectionarycommerce shift.business given stay at home orders and its dependence onimpulse consumptionWe are below the Street on top-line and marginsvs. change in underlying behaviorSales growth in China as the country begins to re

54、coverChanges in reinvestment plansAbility to provide 2020 guidanceImpact of COVID-19 on global consumptionCurrency headwinds to top-line and profitabilityLevers at KOs disposal to protect cash flow and19 and we believe the strength of the brands, and improvement in process and cultural changes set f

55、orth over the past four years should position it well even in a recessionary environment after the immediate shock of the virus outbreak.While we expect top-line and profitability at KO to be disproportionately impacted by social distancing and currency moves in the coming months, we feel confident

56、in both the health of theCCEP-CCEPs trading update wiillonly include revenue detailWe are well above the Street on organic revenueAbility to provide 2020 guidanceImpact of COVID-19 on consumption in Western EuropeLevers at CCEPs disposal to protect cash flow and profitability as top-line comes under

57、 pressure2020 guidanceOrganic top-line benefit from pantry loadingCommentary on the emerging market environmentWhile volume pressure during the pandemic is inevitable, CCEP has swiftly shifted its business model in order to minimize operating deleverage across its P&L. Additionally, insulating cash

58、has been of particular focus in the near-term albeit with an eye on ensuring that the business remains healthy enough to capitalize on recovery opportunities when the time comesContrary to typical performance, given the difference in the trade (ieMDLZ$0.65$0.66($0.01)growth (+170bps) but slightly be

59、low on operating margins (-10bps)Commentary on the benefit from stay at home ordersbeyond the initial stock upEaster expectationsProfit flow through from sales liftSupply chain performance, particularly in North Americamodern vs traditional) and other disruptions, we look for growth indeveloped mark

60、ets to be elevated and emerging markets to be more muted.C1Q20TickerBarclaysConsensusDifferenceNotes on EPS DifferencesWhat Investors Care About This Quarter?Barclays One-LinerCL$0.70$0.73($0.03)Were primarily below Consensus on marginsCommentary on demand trends on soap & oral carePotential update