鉆石：市場在疲軟的2019年后企穩(wěn)

1、Global Research16 January 2020EquitiesExpert CallsPrecious MetalsGlobalDiamonds: market stabilising after weak 2019Diamond market stabilising after 2H destock, gradual recovery expectedWe hosted a call with a leading diamond consultant (replay details below). 2019 was challenging for diamonds with d

2、emand impacted by trade tensions & midstream credit tightening. DB & Alrosa stabilised the market in 2H by deferring sales & allowing the midstream to destock; there are now some encouraging signs with the holiday shopping season appearing relatively positive & some prices starting to recover. The i

3、ndustry is however still underspending on generic advertising; this is seen as the key risk medium-term. We believe demand/ realised pricing is bottoming out and expect the recovery to be gradual due to the upstream inventory build (even with supply set to contract). We recently upgraded Alrosa to B

4、uy (note) & are cautious on AAL (note).1) Demand up modestly in 2019; advertising key; 2) Midstream restructuring1) Demand growth moderated in 2019 to +0-2% (2018 +4%) due to the trade war; Hong Kong was weak due to the protests but offset by more purchases in mainland China. The recent holiday seas

5、on appears better y/y with 2018/19 impacted by falling stock markets & the US govt shut-down. Marketing is key for demand medium-term; the DPA spends only $75-100m on generic marketing vs $250mpa by DeBeers in the mid-2000s. Marriage rates are declining in developed markets, but there is growth in s

6、elf-purchase by women, the growing middle class in China/ India & cohabiting couples buying diamonds. 2) Mid-stream is consolidating/ restructuring; this makes the industry healthier medium-term; its inventory has contracted due to tighter credit/ weak Rupee.Supply to fall until at least 2021/22; 4)

7、 Synthetics risk to smaller stonesSupply falls 5% by 2021 to 140mct as mines deplete. There is potential for new supply from Luaxe in Angola (10mct) & Marange in Zim (+7mct) (but economics are poor). Alrosa & DB invest mainly to extend lives of mines. 4) Synthetics are a risk to smaller stones/ fash

8、ion jewellery; the mkt is small (5-7mct or 5%) but growing rapidly.Signs of price recovery; market still segmented with small stones stabilising5) Prices of small (0.42ct) stones (50% of mkt by volume, 15%) due to new supply, higher recoveries (new technology) & the increase in synthetics; prices li

9、fted +3-4% in 2019 due to support from majors. Prices of large (10.8ct) stones are down 20% in 2019 with manufacturers cutting inventory.Myles AllsopAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:myles.allsop myles.allsop+44-20-7568 1693Daniel MajorAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:daniel.major daniel.major+44-20-7568 3472Hugo Br

10、averyAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:hugo.bravery hugo.bravery+44-20-7568 7202Shilan ModiAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:shilan.modi shilan.modi+27-11-322 7302Glyn LawcockAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:glyn.lawcock glyn.lawcock+61-2-9324 3675 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepare

11、d by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 11. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this

12、 report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Key takeaways from expert callUBS hosted a call with Paul Zimnisky, a leading independent diamond consultant on 15th January to discuss the outlook for diamonds. Paul covered price trends (poli

13、shed and rough), the supply & demand outlook and inventory levels as well as the challenges from synthetics, mid-stream financing and changing consumer habits. The replay details are:UK: 0800 032 9687; 0207 136 9233 (Link for other replay numbers);Passcode: 27343580This presentation was produced sol

14、ely by Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics. The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly for any loss or damage a

15、rising out of the use of this presentation or part thereof.Reproduced with permission.Figure 1: Diamond industry review last year vs last decadeSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 2: The rough diamond price index has overall been broadly flat in H219Source: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsF

16、igure 3: Diamonds price performance by categorySource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 4: Prices recovering in H219Source: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 5: Quarterly price performance of large diamonds.Source: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 6: Upstream market overview 2020-22Sou

17、rce: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 7: Supply is set to fall from 150m cts to 140mcts by 2021; there are some projects in Angola and Zimbabwe which could lift supply from 2022Source: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 8: Midstream market overviewSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigur

18、e 9: The mid-stream has decreased inventory in 2019Source: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 10: A stronger Rupee would be a catalyst for diamond demandSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 11: Downstream market overviewSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 12: Global 2019 diamon

19、d demand expected to be US$78 bnSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 13: Chow Tai Fook continues to aggressively open new stores in China in lower tier citiesSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 14: Diamond market consumer demand trendsSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure

20、15: The natural industry needs to spend more on advertising to save itselfSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsFigure 16: Natural small diamond vs synthetic diamond price performanceSource: Paul Zimnisky Diamond AnalyticsValuation Method and Risk StatementOur price targets are based on DCF and NAV

21、.Investment risk inherent in the resource sector includes, but it is not limited to, movements in commodity price and currency which may differ materially from the assumption used in this report. Furthermore, the sector is subject to political, financial and operational risks, each of which has the

22、potential to significantly impact company/industry performance.Required DisclosuresThis report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as UBS.For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts

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25、(or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 15 January 2020 11:11 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis

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29、ecific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions12-Month RatingDefinitionCoverage1IB Services2BuyFSR is 6% above the MRA.44%32%NeutralFSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA.41%29%SellFSR is 6% below the

30、MRA.15%20%Short-Term RatingDefinitionCoverage3IB Services4BuyStock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.1%1%SellStock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a spec

31、ific catalyst or event.1%1%Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 31 December 2019.1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category.2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within th

32、e past 12 months.3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category.4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.KEY DEFINITIONS:Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is d

33、efined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. In some cases, this yield may be based on accrued dividends. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equit

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35、ted near-term (up to three months) performance of the stock and do not reflect any change in the fundamental view or investment case. Equity Price Targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES:UK and European Investment Fund ratings and definitions are: Buy: Positive o

36、n factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount. Core Banding Exceptions (CBE): Exceptions to the stan

37、dard +/-6% bands may be granted by the Investment Review Committee (IRC). Factors considered by the IRC include the stocks volatility and the credit spread of the respective companys debt. As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate t

38、o the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.

39、 Such analysts may not be associated persons of UBS Securities LLC and therefore are not subject to the FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. The name of each affiliate and analyst employed by that

40、affiliate contributing to this report, if any, follows.UBS AG London Branch: Myles Allsop; Daniel Major; Hugo Bravery. UBS South Africa (Pty) Limited: Shilan Modi. UBS Securities Australia Ltd: Glyn Lawcock.Company DisclosuresCompany NameReuters12-month ratingShort-term ratingPricePrice dateALROSAAL

41、RS.MMBuyN/ARBL90.3715 Jan 2020Anglo American4, 7, 13AAL.LSellN/A2,162p15 Jan 2020Anglo American plc4, 7, 13AGLJ.JSellN/ARCnt40,29515 Jan 2020Rio Tinto Limited7, 12RIO.AXNeutralN/AA$103.3915 Jan 2020Rio Tinto Plc7, 12, 13, 16RIO.LNeutralN/A4,523p15 Jan 2020Source: UBS. All prices as of local market c

42、lose.Ratings in this table are the most current published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock pricing date4.Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking services from this company/entity or one of

43、its affiliates.7.Within the past 12 months, UBS Securities LLC and/or its affiliates have received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from this company/entity.An employee of UBS AG is an officer, director, or advisory board member of this company.UBS AG, it

44、s affiliates or subsidiaries beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of this companys common equity securities as of last months end (or the prior months end if this report is dated less than 10 days after the most recent months end).16. UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or AD

45、Rs of this company.Unless otherwise indicated, please refer to the Valuation and Risk sections within the body of this report. For a complete set of disclosure statements associated with the companies discussed in this report, including information on valuation and risk, please contact UBS Securitie

46、s LLC, 1285 Avenue of Americas, New York, NY 10019, USA, Attention: Investment Research.ALROSA (RBL)150Price Target (RBL)Stock Price (RBL)1005001-Nov-1601-Jan-1701-Mar-1701-May-1701-Jul-1701-Sep-1701-Nov-1701-Jan-1801-Mar-1801-May-1801-Jul-1801-Sep-1801-Nov-1801-Jan-1901-Mar-1901-May-1901-Jul-1901-S

47、ep-1901-Nov-1901-Jan-200Buy NeutralSell No RatingDateStock Price (RBL)Price Target (RBL)Rating2016-10-1486.98-No Rating2019-02-0899.690.0Sell2019-05-2090.7890.0Neutral2019-07-1978.780.0Neutral2019-09-0274.3573.0Neutral2019-11-2977.978.0Neutral2020-01-0885.45105.0BuySource: UBS; as of 15 Jan 2020Angl

48、o American (p)Price Target (p)Stock Price (p)250020001500100050001-Nov-1601-Jan-1701-Mar-1701-May-1701-Jul-1701-Sep-1701-Nov-1701-Jan-1801-Mar-1801-May-1801-Jul-1801-Sep-1801-Nov-1801-Jan-1901-Mar-1901-May-1901-Jul-1901-Sep-1901-Nov-1901-Jan-200NeutralSell No RatingDateStock Price (p)Price Target (p

49、)Rating2016-10-141006.0950.0Neutral2016-11-291205.0-No Rating2016-11-301185.0950.0Neutral2016-12-011208.01300.0Neutral2017-01-241386.01250.0Neutral2017-07-061056.01050.0Neutral2017-10-051474.01360.0Neutral2018-03-281617.01650.0Neutral2018-09-271719.01800.0Neutral2019-02-081935.01800.0Sell2019-09-251

50、842.01700.0Sell2019-12-042049.01800.0Sell2020-01-152162.02000.0SellSource: UBS; as of 15 Jan 2020Anglo American plc (RCnt)Price Target (RCnt)Stock Price (RCnt)500004000030000200001000001-Nov-1601-Jan-1701-Mar-1701-May-1701-Jul-1701-Sep-1701-Nov-1701-Jan-1801-Mar-1801-May-1801-Jul-1801-Sep-1801-Nov-1

51、801-Jan-1901-Mar-1901-May-1901-Jul-1901-Sep-1901-Nov-1901-Jan-200NeutralSell No RatingDateStock Price (RCnt)Price Target (RCnt)Rating2016-10-1417516.018500.0Neutral2016-12-0120998.024000.0Neutral2017-01-3022911.025000.0Neutral2017-02-2221171.023000.0Neutral2017-05-3017860.0-No Rating2017-06-0917797.

52、021000.0Neutral2017-07-0618298.019500.0Neutral2017-10-0526277.026500.0Neutral2018-03-2826870.029000.0Neutral2018-06-2829591.031500.0Neutral2018-09-2731726.034500.0Neutral2019-02-0834044.032500.0Sell2019-03-2838309.035000.0Sell2019-08-1531318.033000.0Sell2019-09-2534238.031000.0Sell2019-12-0438966.03

53、3500.0Sell2020-01-1540295.036500.0SellSource: UBS; as of 15 Jan 2020Rio Tinto Limited (A$)150Price Target (A$)Stock Price (A$)1005001-Nov-1601-Jan-1701-Mar-1701-May-1701-Jul-1701-Sep-1701-Nov-1701-Jan-1801-Mar-1801-May-1801-Jul-1801-Sep-1801-Nov-1801-Jan-1901-Mar-1901-May-1901-Jul-1901-Sep-1901-Nov-

54、1901-Jan-200Buy NeutralDateStock Price (A$)Price Target (A$)Rating2016-10-1451.0561.0Buy2016-12-0158.770.0Buy2017-01-1762.771.0Buy2017-02-0965.2575.0Buy2017-08-0364.278.0Buy2017-10-0567.9979.0Buy2017-10-1771.4679.5Buy2017-12-1370.1479.0Buy2018-02-0877.5485.0Buy2018-03-1676.6288.5Buy2018-03-2873.3990

55、.0Buy2018-06-2883.0793.0Buy2018-08-0277.6590.0Buy2019-01-1880.6588.0Buy2019-03-0696.6594.0Neutral2019-03-2896.4197.5Neutral2019-04-16101.298.0Neutral2019-05-23100.98101.0Neutral2019-08-0294.7797.0Neutral2019-09-2691.1395.0Neutral2019-12-0595.7997.5NeutralSource: UBS; as of 15 Jan 2020Rio Tinto Plc (

56、p)Price Target (p)Stock Price (p)5000400030002000100001-Nov-1601-Jan-1701-Mar-1701-May-1701-Jul-1701-Sep-1701-Nov-1701-Jan-1801-Mar-1801-May-1801-Jul-1801-Sep-1801-Nov-1801-Jan-1901-Mar-1901-May-1901-Jul-1901-Sep-1901-Nov-1901-Jan-200Buy Neutral No RatingDateStock Price (p)Price Target (p)Rating2016

57、-10-142596.03150.0Buy2016-12-013028.03500.0Buy2017-02-093382.03750.0Buy2017-07-063348.03700.0Buy2017-08-033487.03750.0Buy2017-10-053676.04000.0Buy2018-06-204122.0-No Rating2018-06-214103.04000.0Buy2018-06-284184.04700.0Buy2018-09-273878.04600.0Buy2019-01-183925.04500.0Buy2019-03-054442.04500.0Neutra

58、l2019-05-234590.04700.0Neutral2019-08-024387.04500.0Neutral2019-09-254177.04100.0Neutral2019-12-044180.04250.0NeutralSource: UBS; as of 15 Jan 2020The Disclaimer relevant to Global Wealth Management clients follows the Global Disclaimer.Global DisclaimerThis document has been prepared by UBS AG Lond

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