自動化產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)集成商調(diào)查

1、Automation IndustryJ.P. Morgan/CSIA System Integrator Survey: Notable, Albeit Unsurprising, Step Down In SentimentOur latest proprietary survey of automation system integrators shows not surprisingly, a notable step down in the recent months compared to continued growth momentum in the prior surveys

2、. While we are far from shocked by the responses and its not eye poppingly bad, the responses that have proven stable over time, even throughout the 14/15 “industrial recession”, took a meaningful shift negative. Most interesting items include a duration of impact 6 months, longer than recent survey

3、s from distributors, reflecting the lagging nature of capex, a pickup in expectations for average declines of15%, with customer capex down 10%+, while, on the longer term, they believe customers had not entered this period having under-spent on equipment, and noting the tax changes did virtually not

4、hing for their businesses, going against the notion of some pent up demand for US manufacturing capacity - in the end it seems all about end market/demand related. Here, for end markets, there are notable downticks in oil/gas and auto, while food/beverage is stable, but not accelerating.From a US st

5、ock perspective, we remain UW on ROK (expectations remain too optimistic) and OW on EMR (attractive valuation, more stable portfolio and defendable margins on $1 B+ of cost out). In Europe, we prefer Schneider (OW) and Siemens OW over ABB (UW). While Siemens auto exposure holds back near term growth

6、, we believe that it has the outstanding industrial software franchise in the automation industry. Schneider is well positioned with its stake in Aveva and the strong growth momentum, mainly in Energy Management. At ABB, we are concerned about the market share loss in process automation and the near

7、 term earnings risks in Robotics while the company also has a weaker position in industrial software.J.P. Morgan/CSIA automation survey. This note summarizes our latest proprietary survey of control system integrators, where we received 201 responses. System integrators are third-party firms focusin

8、g on delivering technically advanced capital projects, a proxy for upward of 70% of sales for automation suppliers. Responses are slanted toward North America, similar to the overall SI industry, but with some global representation as well. We are pleased to continue our partnership with CSIA (Contr

9、ol System Integrators Association), the leading professional association representing the industry.Survey results show steep slowdown in demand, amidst macro weakness. Responses on demand were still on net showing growth but with a discernable shift negative until last survey, but have steepened sig

10、nificantly in this survey, reflecting a slowdown in order activity, B2B, and revenue growth. The overall percentage of those reporting order strength versus weakness was much less favorable vs our prior survey (20%/50% strength/weakness vs 40%/30% prior), with expectation for order activity over the

11、 next 6 months lower at 28%/52% (strength/weakness) vs47%/15% in our prior survey. On March trends specifically, 48% noted weaker demand than in Jan/Feb vs 15% indicating weaker, implying the severe impact of COVID-19 as the pandemic spread globally in March. On B2B, 23% are 1.0 x and41% are 1.0 x a

12、nd30% 1x vs16% prior in Oil & Gas, 61% seeing 1.0 x vs 49% prior in Auto & Tire, while book-to-bill at Food & Bev was sustained, with 28% seeing 1.0 x similar to prior survey.North America Equity Research27 April 2020Electrical Equipment & Multi- IndustryC. Stephen Tusa, Jr CFA AC (1-212) 622-6623 H

13、YPERLINK mailto:stephen.tusa stephen.tusa Bloomberg JPMA TUSA J.P. Morgan Securities LLCPatrick M. Baumann, CFA(1-212) 622-0160 HYPERLINK mailto:patrick.m.baumann patrick.m.baumannJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCNicole Q Cai(1-212) 622-1050 HYPERLINK mailto:nicole.cai nicole.caiJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCA

14、bhipsa Sahu(91-22) 6157-4230 HYPERLINK mailto:abhipsa.sahu abhipsa.sahuJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedAndreas Willi AC(44-20) 7134-4569 HYPERLINK mailto:andreas.p.willi andreas.p.williBloomberg JPMA W ILLI J.P. Morgan Securities plcSee page 54 for analyst certification and important disclosures, i

15、ncluding non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report a

16、s only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Growth expectations remain subdued. 37% of respondents anticipate growth in demand conditions over the next 12 months, much lower than 64% in our prior surveys, with 16% expecting 10% growth vs 21% in the prior survey. Keep in m

17、ind as always, responses are typically biased on optimism in forward expectations, and actual growth tends to fall below expectations as weve seen in prior surveys. On backlog visibility, 31% said they were at normal levels and 52% at weaker than normal levels, worse than prior survey where 44% said

18、 they were at normal levels and 29% at weaker than normal levels. A lesser number of respondents were positive on capex expectations, 24% expect it to be up in 2020 with overall 2020 weighed capex growth expectations showing 3% type decline, vs 50% expecting it to be up in the prior survey, showing

19、1% type growth expectations. For ROK, we assume organic decline of 8.9% in FY20 and -4.1% in FY21. At EMR, we model FY20 organic sales down 10.9% (down 11.3% for Automation), followed by -3.6% in FY21 (-5% in Automation). At Schneider we look for +0.3% organic sales growth in the Industry Automation

20、 segment in FY19 and +0.9% in FY20. At ABB, for Robotics & Discrete Automation, we look for -4.3% organic sales in FY19 and -2% in FY20, while for Industrial Automation (former Process Automation) segment we assume FY19 to be up 1.1% organically and up +2% organically in FY20. At Siemens Digital Fac

21、tory, we look for flat organic growth in FY19 and -4% in FY20.How does it look versus 14/15? Sentiment around order activity looks weaker today, vs a more optimistic outlook in 15, and more respondents pointed to B2B20%. March trailing 3-month underlying orders were down 1%, reflecting initial momen

22、tum in the early portion of the quarter, particularly in the longer cycle businesses of Final Control and Systems, up 3% and 7%, respectively. In contrast, instrumentation business was down 9%, impacted more severely due to the deteriorating environment driven by COVID- 19 and oil demand. Geographic

23、ally, the Americas and Asia declined 4% and 3%, respectively, while Europe was flat as early quarter momentum quickly faded in March as the pandemic took hold. Middle East & Africa grew double digits on easy comps y/y and some previous project wins being booked. China orders dropped by 12%. Overall,

24、 we saw customers slow their acceptance and approval processes. Sequential backlog grew 3% to $5.1 billion.ABB Industrial Automation: Orders grew 5%, supported by large orders for specialty vessels, rounding out an altogether strong year for marine activity. Across the energy sector, large orders re

25、main subject to project postponements, and they continue to see a competitive pricing behavior. Conventional power generation continues to be weak. Elsewhere, process solutions remain supported by solid demand in pulp and paper and LNG sectors. Revenues were 1% lower, a function of the order backlog

26、 going into the quarter and lower book and bill. The order backlog rose 2%. Looking at Q1, they expect orders and revenues in IA to remain highly sensitive to end market developments with the business challenged to hold revenues and margins steady y/y against tough comps.Honeywells Process Solutions

27、: Process solutions sales were up 6% organically in Q4, driven by strength across the entire automation portfolio in Smart Energy. Additionally, orders in the automation and products businesses were up double digits, allowing us to exit the year with a strong backlog, notably in our global megaproje

28、cts business, which was up double-digits. Most of the growth is driven by LNG, mega-refining, petrochemical complex and some more from renewable segment.Yokogawa Electric: Orders were up 4.9% y/y and sales were up 5.4% y/y in 4Q in Control segment. Orders were significantly up in Japan, China and Mi

29、ddle East24while orders were down Asia, Europe and CIS due to y/y decline in large project orders.Figure 28: EMR Process Management/Automation Sales & Order Growth (Calendar quarters)% Y/Y organic30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%1Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q191Q

30、20-20%EMR Automation SalesEMR Automation Underlying OrdersFigure 29: ABB and Honeywell Process Automation Sales/Orders% Y/Y organicHoneywell Process Solutions Organic ABB Process Automation organic sales15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%2Q124Q122Q134Q132Q144Q142Q154Q152Q164Q162Q174Q172Q184Q182Q194Q19-25%Sour

31、ce: Company reports. From 1Q16, growth is from new Automation segmentSource: Company reports.Macro dataWhile there are a number of company-specific factors that influence growth, y/y organic revenues on a sector-wide basis tend to be fairly tightly correlated with top- down indicators like US core c

32、apital goods shipments and global industrial production, which have improved from the weak trends seen in 2016 and despite the slowdown experienced, they are still far away from 2016 levels.Figure 30: EE/MI Organic Growth vs Global Macro IndexIndex is 30% US Mfg IP, 15% US Core Capital Goods, 25% Eu

33、rope IP, 30% Emerging Markets IP15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%3Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q19-20%EE/MI OrganicEcon IndexSource: J.P. Morgan estimates.25Figure 31: EE/MI Organic Growth vs. Key US Indicators% Y/Y20%Figure 32: EE/MI Organic Gr

34、owth vs. Key International IndicatorsEE/MI Growth and Europe IP Y/YChina IP Y/Y15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%1Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q19-15%-20%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%3Q061Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q10

35、1Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q19-20%EE/MI OrganicUS Mfg IP US Core Cap Goods ShipmentsEE/MI OrganicEurope IP China IPSource: Eurostat, NBS, J.P. Morgan Economics.Source: Eurostat, NBS, J.P. Morgan Economics.Figure 33: US Manufacturing IP Y/Y Growth vs. Sequent

36、ial 3mo/3mo Momentum% Y/Y% 3mo/3moFigure 34: US Core Capital Goods Shipments Y/Y Growth vs. Sequential 3mo/3mo Momentum% Y/Y% 3mo/3mo4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%Jul 13Nov 13Mar 14Jul 14Nov 14Mar 15Jul 15Nov 15Mar 16Jul 16Nov 16Mar 17Jul 17Nov 17Mar 18Jul 18Nov 18Mar 19Jul 19Nov 19Mar 20-4%Source: FRB.Mfg IP

37、y/yMfg IP 3mo/3mo2%1%1%0%-1%-1%-2%-2%15%10%5%0%-5%Feb 13Aug 13Feb 14Aug 14Feb 15Aug 15Feb 16Aug 16Feb 17Aug 17Feb 18Aug 18Feb 19Aug 19Feb 20-10%Source: US Census.Core Cap Goods Shipments y/yCore Cap Goods Shipments 3mo/3mo4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%26Detailed Review of Survey ResultsMethodology: We sent

38、surveys to over 1,000 systems integrators serving the automation and control industry and received 201 responses. Survey responses came from the period of March 27th through April 9th. The sections below detail our results.Demographics and Respondent ProfileThe sections below summarize the profile o

39、f the engineers surveyed. We also compare it to past surveys to make sure we have a reasonably comparable set of responses and we believe we do.Firm sizeSmaller firms made up a significant portion of the system integrators surveyed, with41% having fewer than 25 employees (similar to prior survey) an

40、d 47% with less than $5mm in annual revenues (vs 49% prior) with 26% having less than $2mm in annual revenues. Larger firms were also represented, however, with 17% of respondents having over $25mm in annual revenues (vs 21% in prior survey).Figure 35: What is your average number of employees plus c

41、ontract people involved in systems integration?200Figure 36: What is your approximate annual revenue for control system integration work, including shop/panel assembly but excluding construction?101-2006%11%51-10016%2540%60%50%40%30%20%Source: J.P. Morgan/CSIA.25-5026%10%0%$50 millionApr17Oct17Apr18

42、Oct18Apr19Oct19Apr20Source: J.P. Morgan/CSIA.Regional exposureThe firms surveyed were primarily focused in the US. This reflects, in part, the more developed channel of independent control engineers in the US relative to other emerging regions. The largest portion of outside US exposure comes from E

43、urope, Canada, Central & South America, Mexico and Asia. This was slightly different from prior survey where the largest exposure came from Europe, followed by Central & South America, Canada, Mexico and Asia.27Figure 37: What is your primary region(s) served? (Select up to 3)% of respondents indica

44、ting business in a region (will not sum to 100% given up to 3 selections were allowed)Figure 38: What is your primary region(s) served? (Select up to 3)10%3%4%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%12%11% Asia Central &South Ame8r%icaMexico 10%CanadaEurope AfricaAus/ NZ52%Eastern USApr17Oct17Apr18Oct18Apr19Oct19Apr20S

45、ource: J.P. Morgan/CSIA.41%Western USSource: J.P. Morgan/CSIA.51%Central USEnd market exposureResponses covered a wide range of end markets and were relatively well distributed. The four most commonly served markets were Food & Beverage, Water/Wastewater, Oil & gas, OEM/Industrial Equipment, Packagi

46、ng and Material Handling, Power & energy.Figure 39: What are the most significant end markets for your clients? (Select up to 3)% of respondents indicating business in a given market (will sum to 100% given up to 3 selections were allowed)Apr18Oct18Apr19Oct19Apr 2060%50%40%30%20%10%EntertainmentSemi

47、conductor & electronicsDefense/MilitaryCommercial/InstitutionalData centersOtherBuilding automationConsumer Goods / Household productsMetals, mining, aggregate, cementLife sciencesAutomotive and tireChemicals and petrochemicalsPackaging and material handlingPower & energyOil & gasOEM / industrial eq

48、uipmentWater & wastewaterFood and beverage (including0%Source: J.P. Morgan/CSIA.The markets targeted for incremental expansion tend to be in process-focused markets. Across end markets, the areas most targeted for expansion are Food and Beverage (significantly higher than last survey, after being th

49、e most targeted one for the surveys of the past 3 years before last survey) and Life Sciences (similar to last survey). The end markets that saw significant declines in expansion in this survey are Water and Wastewater (most targeted in last survey, Packaging and Material Handling and Chemicals & Pe

50、trochemicals. Other end markets being targeted for expansion are Power and Energy, Data centers and Semiconductor & electronics (better than last survey).28Figure 40: List an industry into which you are expanding or plan to expand, even if it is not yet generating significant revenue.20%18%16%14%12%

51、10%8%6%4%2%EntertainmentCommercial/InstitutionalConsumer Goods / Household productsSemiconductor & electronicsChemicals and petrochemicalsAutomotive and tireDefense/MilitaryMetals, mining, aggregate, cementBuilding AutomationData centersOil & gasWater & wastewaterOEM / industrial equipmentPackaging

52、and Material HandlingPower & energyLife SciencesFood and beverage (including bottling/canning)0%Apr18Oct18Apr19Oct19Apr20Source: J.P. Morgan/CSIA.Relative to key US automation suppliers such as ROK/EMR, this end market split is fairly representative of their addressable markets. ROK, given its discr

53、ete legacy, has relatively more food/beverage/household products exposure, while process suppliers like EMR have more oil & gas exposure.Figure 41: ROK Approximate End Market Breakout% of salesOtherFigure 42: EMR Automation Solutions by End Market% of sales8%Auto/Tire 15%Life Sciences/ Pharma10%Heal

54、th & Personal Care 5%Oil & Gas 12%Water/WW 5%Metals/mining 15%Discrete, 14%Hybrid, 10%Other, 7%Upstream Oil & Gas, 20%Midstream Oil & Gas, 11%Source: Company reports.Food & Beverage 15%Other Heavy15%Power, 14%Source: Company reports.Refining & Chemical, 24%We asked respondents to give their opinion

55、about the strongest and weakest end markets in terms of activity levels and new orders. Amongst the most operational end markets, Defense/Military, Life Sciences, Data centers and Commercial/Institutional showed reasonable strength, while weaker end markets included Entertainment, Automotive and Tir

56、e, Oil & gas, Commercial/Institutional, etc.29Figure 43: If your firm operates in multiple end markets, which customer end markets are showing the most activity and new orders? (Check all that apply).Oil & gasLeast StrengthBuilding automation Automotive and tireLife sciencesFood and beverage (includ

57、ing bottling/canning)Semiconductor & electronicsPower & energyPackaging and material handlingEntertainmentOEM / industrial equipmentConsumer Goods / Household productsOEM / industrial equipmentLeast WeaknessPackaging and material handlingWater & wastewaterNorth America Equity Research27 April 2020Se

58、miconductor & electronics Metals, mining, aggregate, cement Water & wastewaterChemicals and petrochemicalsConsumer Goods / Household productsFood and beverage (including bottling/canning)Commercial/InstitutionalPower & energy Defense/Military% operating% noting strengthSource: J.P. Morgan/CSIA.% ope

59、rating% noting weaknessSource: J.P. Morgan/CSIA.Chemicals and petrochemicals Building automationMost WeaknessMetals, mining, aggregate, cement Commercial/InstitutionalC. Stephen Tusa, Jr CFA (1-212) 622-6623 HYPERLINK mailto:stephen.tusa stephen.tusa10% growth (vs 21%/27% in prior surveys). Results

60、look worse today with significantly more pointing to declines.Figure 52: What best characterizes your expectation for revenue growth over the next 12 months (versus the year-ago period)?% Y/Y35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Down more Down 10-Down 5-Down 0-5% FlattishUp 0-5% Up 5-10% Up 10-15% Up morethan 15%15