大中華汽車零部件：中國新產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)鏈指南

1、August 13, 2019 10:20 AM GMTChina Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia PacificGreater China Auto Parts: China NEV Supply Chain GuidebookThe shift to electric vehicles is gaining pace in China as regulation and competition reshape carmakers strategies. The slowdown of the traditional car market in China is

2、 spurring the industry to become a global leader in the EV market. We explore what this means across the supply chain companies.MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Tim HsiaoEQUITY ANALYST HYPERLINK mailto:Tim.Hsiao Tim.Hsiao+852 2848-1982Shelley Wang, CFAEQUITY ANALYST HYPERLINK mailto:Shelley.Wang Shelley.

3、Wang+852 3963-0047Frank WanRESEARCH ASSOCIATE HYPERLINK mailto:Frank.Wan Frank.Wan+852 2239-1229Jack YeungEQUITY ANALYST HYPERLINK mailto:Jack.Yeung Jack.Yeung+852 2239-7843China Autos & Shared MobilityAsia PacificIndustryViewIn-LineMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered

4、 in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst ce

5、rtification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications wi

6、th a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Chinas NEV Value Chain Key Topics HighlightedPolicySubsidyLight WeightJoint VentureFuel CellNEVThermal ControlWiringHybridChargingEV CostChinas NEV Value Chain Charts in the SpotlightHow will dealers d

7、eal with EVs? (9 Aug 2019)Career in electric vehicles (2 Aug 2019)Lets make it short and sweet (26 Jul 2019)Meet the new EV breed (19 Jul 2019)Aim high, but not that high (12 Jul 2019)Warming up primes EV for a smoother ride (5 Jul 2019)How clean exactly is your EV? (28 Jun 2019)EV battery retiremen

8、t plans (21 Jun 2019)Together we can do so much more? (14 Jun 2019)Where to squeeze out profits? (6 Jun 2019)The end of cable charging? (24 May 2019)The right talent pool for EV? (17 May 2019)What margins told us in 1Q19? (10 May 2019)Cost to achieve fuel economy (3 May 2019)EV carnival at the Auto

9、Show (26 Apr 2019)Are price hikes a serious option? (12 Apr 2019)FCV: Dark horse or underdog? (4 Apr 2019)Can subsidy cuts lift quality? (29 Mar 2019)Cost vs. Performance (15 Mar 2019)Who will bear EV subsidy cut? (8 Mar 2019)Hybrid or BEV - which is better for AD? (1 Mar 2019)Taking a cooling bath

10、(22 Feb 2019)Ripple effect in the supply chain (15 Feb 2019)Incentives beyond the plate (1 Feb 2019)Make a strong case for batteries (25 Jan 2019)Enhance sound, remove noise (18 Jan 2019)Warm up your winter (11 Jan 2019)More volts, less pain? (4 Jan 2019)The live wire in EV (21 Dec 2018)Who stands b

11、ehind EV startups? (14 Dec 2018)Power up on China EV craze (7 Dec 2018)From materials to car makers (30 Nov 2018)Charging pile construction gets a move on (23 Nov 2018)The cold winter essentials (16 Nov 2018)Aluminum parts do not guarantee better profitability (9 Nov 2018)EVs hasten the change in ma

12、terials formula (1 Nov 2018)Every gram counts (26 Oct 2018)Mix matters - A00 type is finally on the wane? (19 Oct 2018)Are ICE plate restrictions driving NEV sales? (11 Oct 2018)The cost to manufacture EVs in China (5 Oct 2018)Luxury EVs hasten pace of localization in China (28 Sep 2018)The race to

13、TCO parity (21 Sep 2018)Hey EV fellows, youre not alone (14 Sep 2018)Chinas NEV Value Chain: Hybrid or BEV Which is Better for Autonomous Driving?Hybrid models prevail in the autonomous driving (AD) segment, likely due to concerns around BEVs insufficient driving distance currently, e.g., Lincoln MK

14、Z hybrid (by Baidu Apollo, Pony, AutoX), Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (by Waymo), and Lexus RX hybrid (by Apple).We expect more to be BEV-based if the limitation on driving distance can be eased.Hybrid autonomous vehicles prevail currentlyRegionAmericaJapanEuropeOEMGeneral MotorsFordToyotaVolvoJLRModelChr

15、ysler Pacifica minivanLincoln MKZ sedanLexus RX450h SUVXC90 SUVJaguar I-Pace SUVTypePHEVHybridHybridPHEVBEVAD playersWaymoBaidu Apollo, Pony, AutoXAppleRide hailingWaymo (from 2020)Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley ResearchPHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehiclesValuation Methodology and RisksMint

16、h (0425.HK)Our price target of HK$33 for Minth is our base case scenario value, derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation methodology. Our key assumptions include a 10% cost of equity and resulting WACC of 9%. Our medium-term growth rate is 12%, and our steady-state revenue growth assumpti

17、on is 3.5%.Key downside risks to achieving our price target:Significant slowdown in Chinas PV market.Sluggish overseas market sales growth.Labor cost increases.RMB appreciation against USD.Sanhua (002050.SZ)Our price target of Rmb8.46 is based on DCF valuation given Sanhua is a mature company with s

18、teady cash flows. We expect a steady state growth rate of 3%, thanks to continued share gains and increasing penetration of electric vehicles. Our cost of equity assumption is 11% with a 5% cost of debt for a resulting WACC of 10%.Risks:Upside: 1) New project wins for its auto business; 2) Booming p

19、roperty market; 3) Strong HVAC demand for extreme weather conditions.Downside: 1) Sales slump in Chinas property market (affecting residential HVAC), as seen in 2015; 2) Slower-than-expected EV sales due to regulatory uncertainty or model delays; 3) FX/export risks amid macro uncertainty.Xingyu (601

20、799.SS)Our Rmb83 price target is our base case scenario value. We employ a discounted cash flow (DCF) model because Xingyu is a mature company with steady free cash flows. We assume are a 10% cost of equity and 5% cost of debt, with a resulting WACC of 10%. Other key assumptions are 12% medium-term

21、growth rate and a 3% terminal growth rate.Key downside risks to achieving price targetDeteriorating auto sales in ChinaMargin dilution from new capacityRising raw material pricesDisclosure SectionThe information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stan

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30、-9000. Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USA.Analyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in

31、this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Tim Hsiao; Shelley Wang, CFA; Jack Yeung.Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover

32、 page of this report are research analysts.Global Research Conflict Management PolicyMorgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at HYPERLINK /institutional/research/conflictpolicies /institutional/research/conflictpolicies. A Port

33、uguese version of the policy can be found at HYPERLINK .br/ .brImportant US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesAs of July 31, 2019, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Dongfeng Moto

34、r Group, Great Wall Motor Company Limited, Minth Group Limited, Nio Inc.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Nio Inc. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services f

35、rom Cango Inc., Nio Inc.In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from BAIC Motor, BYD Company Limited, Cango Inc., Dongfeng Motor Group, FAW Car Company Limited, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Geely Automobile Holdings, Grea

36、t Wall Motor Company Limited, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Huayu Automotive, Minth Group Limited, Nexteer Automotive Group, Nio Inc., SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd., Uxin Limited, Zhongsheng Group Holdings.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than

37、 investment banking services from Baoxin Auto Group, BYD Company Limited, China Zhengtong Auto Services, Geely Automobile Holdings, Zhongsheng Group Holdings.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client rel

38、ationship with, the following company: BAIC Motor, BYD Company Limited, Cango Inc., Dongfeng Motor Group, FAW Car Company Limited, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Geely Automobile Holdings, Great Wall Motor Company Limited, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Huayu Automotive, Minth Group Limited, Nexteer Autom

39、otive Group, Nio Inc., SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd., Uxin Limited, Zhongsheng Group Holdings.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a cli

40、ent relationship with the following company: Baoxin Auto Group, BYD Company Limited, CAR Inc, China Zhengtong Auto Services, Geely Automobile Holdings, Nio Inc., Zhongsheng Group Holdings.Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC makes a market in the securities of Uxin Limited.The equity research analysts or strate

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46、 Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold and sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts vie

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49、n accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated

50、 and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight and Not-Rated to h

51、old and Underweight to sell recommendations, respectively.COVERAGE UNIVERSEINVESTMENT BANKING CLIENTS (IBC)OTHER MATERIAL INVESTMENTSERVICES CLIENTS (MISC)STOCK RATING CATEGORYCOUNT% OF TOTALCOUNT% OF TOTAL IBC% OF RATINGCATEGORYCOUNT% OF TOTALOTHER MISCOverweight/Buy112436%28142%25%51637%Equal-weig

52、ht/Hold140545%30946%22%66347%Not-Rated/Hold10%00%0%10%Underweight/Sell57719%7712%13%23316%TOTAL3,1076671413Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.

53、Due to rounding off of decimals, the percentages provided in the % of total column may not add up to exactly 100 percent.Analyst Stock RatingsOverweight (O). The stocks total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a ri

54、sk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.Equal-weight (E). The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.Not-Rated (NR). Currently the analyst d

55、oes not have adequate conviction about the stocks total return relative to the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.Underweight (U). The stocks total return is expected to be below the average total

56、return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.Analyst Industry ViewsAttractive (A): The analyst expects t

57、he performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the

58、 relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America -

59、 S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)Important

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