美國(guó)MLP行業(yè)快報(bào)

1、GlobalResearch11 January2019EquitiesMLP Hydrocarbon ExpressEquitiesEnergyAmericasPuck Skates to Deer ValleyEnergyAmericas101 Series: UBS Evidence Lab Inside US Crude Export CapacityWe kicked off our 2019 101 Series with a deep dive into US Gulf Coast crude export capacity. With crude exports rising

2、during 18 and expected to continue, many have debated how much crude export capacity is on the Gulf Coast and if there is enough capacity for growing exports. We used UBS Evidence Lab data to attempt to quantify the amount of Gulf Coast crude oil export capacity, by tracking vessel activity, necessa

3、ry idled dock time and utilizing available company loading rates to arrive at a time derived capacity. Our analysis concluded there is 8.9MMbpd of crude export capacity on the Gulf Coast (Houston, Beaumont, Louisiana, and Corpus), net of imports. With YTD average exports of 1.7MMbpd, we estimate the

4、re is an incremental7.2MMbpdofcapacity;however,therearedisparitiesbetweentheregions. In looking at current and planned pipeline capacity flowing into the different Gulf Coastports,webelievethatCorpuswilllikelyneedadditionalexportcapacity.UBSeof 964Mbpd of export capacity (net of imports and idled do

5、ck time) compared to 1.6MMbpdofpipelinecapacityintoCorpus(assumesallpipesarefull)and2.2Mbpdof planned capacity coming online in 4Q19/1Q20. Hence, we believe additional export capacitywilllikelybeneeded,outsideofBPLsplannedSouthTexasGatewayterminal andtheEPD/PAAJV.BothHouston/BeaumontandLouisianaseem

6、tohaveadequate capacity today based on pipeline capacity. HYPERLINK /shared/d23RFgnUbF (clickhere)Rigsillow: Moderation in Permian Rig Count GrowthRig count growth increased in 4Q18 to +2.8% after a slowdown in 3Q of +0.7% following consecutive strong 1Q/2Q of +7.5%/+5.0%, respectively. The rig coun

7、t cadence implies slower growth into the start of 19, which should pick up slightly in 2Q.RigsillowidentifiedCEQP,OKE,andENLKasthoseseeingthemostgrowtharound theirassetsfollowedbyTRGP.Wecontinuetoexpectstronggrowthin4Q18,following the strong macro support we identified in our previous Rigsillow HYPE

8、RLINK /shared/d21EPNSvevR (click here) and EIA estimates; however, prod growth should begin to taper into the beginning of 19, potentially due to lower crude prices and infrastructure tightness across midstream. During4Qcalls,wewilllistenforcadenceinto19volguidanceasastagnantrigcount in the Permian

9、could imply slower growth until new pipeline capacity comes online. Thatsaid,rigcountintheEagleFordisupQoQasitcontinuestoprovideahavenfrom the over utilized Permian. HYPERLINK /shared/d2eBNzCFHyZrTHv (click here)Fractionator: Shifting NGL Price DifferentialsEnergyTransfersmuchanticipatedME2NGLpipeli

10、neenteredserviceonDec29th.ME2 provides NGL takeaway capacity and export optionality for production from the MarcellusandUticabasinstotheMarcusHookcomplexontheEastCoast.ME2should improve NGL differentials for NE producers and incentivize more wet gas drilling; positiveforMPLX,WMB,andET.TheNGLcomposit

11、espreadbetweenMtB-Conwasa major theme during 18, blowing out to $0.360/gal in Sept and providing some midstream companies (namely OKE and EPD) opportunity to capture optimization margin on spreads. However, a colder start to the heating season in the Midwest coupled with crop drying demand and seaso

12、nal demand in the NE helped tighten the spreadtoanaverageof$0.121/galduring4Q18,down54%from3Q18.TheDecdiff averaged$0.046/gal,belowthehistoricalaverageof$0.06.gal HYPERLINK /shared/d2ELtFMnVE5k (clickhere).Asaresult, weareloweringour2018/2019EBITDAestimatesforOKEby0.8%/1.7%.(Seedetails on page 24.)F

13、und Flow DataFundFlowsthisweekwere+$94MMwithMutualFundFlows+$84MMandETFFlows+$10MM. January flows are tracking +$29MM vs. December 18 flows of ($671MM). YTD flows are tracking +$29MM compared to +$475MM at this time last year.ShneurZ.Gershuni,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:shneur.gershuni +1-212-7133974Michel

14、leKenel, AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:michelle.kenel +1-212-7134896Aga Zmigrodzka,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:agnieszka.zmigrodzka +1-212-7133014Brian ReynoldsAssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:brian.reynolds +1-212-7132563Luke AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:luke.vernon +1-212-7132402 HYPERLINK /inv

15、estmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 31. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a c

16、onflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Figure 1: WoW MLP SubSectorPerformanceFigure 2: QTD MLP Sub SectorPerformanceDiversifiedG&P LiquidOtherMidstreamNaturalGasPropaneMar

17、ine Transport2.1%7.8%7.7%6.0%7.9%14.4%31.6%36.5%DiversifiedG&P LiquidOtherMidstreamNaturalGasPropaneMarine Transport10.8%17.5%10.3%6.4%1.1%13.5%50.6%53.9% General4.1%11.4%9.1% General2.9%15.3%11.6%S&P500DJIA 10-yr6.1%5.8%7 bpsS&PDJIA 10-yr3.6%2.9%3bpsWTI-2.4%9.0%Henry HubWTIHenry Hub4.6%13.0%-5.0% 0

18、.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%-10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%Source:FactSet,Bloomberg,USTreasurySource: FactSet, Bloomberg, USTreasurySentiment UpdateThe midstream surge came to an end on Thursday but for once a down day was not volatilebutmoreorderlywithweaknessc

19、ontinuingonFridaybutagainorderly.Overall investor interest in the sector, continued to pick up with plenty of project requests, models, and refreshers for those who havent been in the sector in a while. With some updatesfromE&Psattendingaconferencethisweek,itseemsthethemeis,livingwithin cashflows,wi

20、thsomecuttingcapexmodestly,but,overallproductioncontinuestogrow in 2019 which is the Goldilocks scenario for Midstream. In terms of individual stocks, PAGPhasbeeninfocusbecauseofCaplineenthusiasmandmorebelievegivenitssizeit will dilute S&L enough to no longer be a source of equity volatility (we hop

21、e so). KMI many are asking whats the expectation is for KML asset sales and buyback for the upcoming analyst day, seems like a short thesis is being set up on the potential disappointment, we believe KMI will likely sell but not sure it will be concluded in time fortheanalystdayandthinkitsmorelikely

22、alate1Q/2Qevent.However,KMIwilllikely emphasize a desire for excess cash to be used for buybacks, which we think could be goodenough.BPLisbeingpitchedgivencontangoandBPLbeingclosertothebottom, fromourviewconsensusisstilltoohighfor4Qcombinedwithrecentperformance,but agree most of the negatives are in

23、 the rear-view mirror. NS most agreed with our downgrade this week. OKE has been mixed, some like it given its history, others concerned about the MtB:Conway spread (always weakens during winter months). TRGP got a lot of interest on Thursday when they updated guidance and marketed a bond offering (

24、which was upsized), TRGP said it would be at the high end of guidance vs. previously expecting to exceed the high end, many looked at it as not bad considering what commodities did during the quarter and also terming out therevolver balanceleavingover$2Bofliquidityonitsrevolvertoexecuteitsplans.ETal

25、sodidan oversubscribedbondofferingthispastweekandMMPannounceda30Ybondoffering onFriday,seemsthemarketisopenformidstreamdebtingeneral.SEMGannounceda JVandacquisitioninCanadathatwaswelllikedasitsetsapathtoanIPO,andreduced leverage by monetizing an asset above where it was trading. On the trading front

26、, buyersacrosstheboardnotjustcovering,lastweekitwasonlyhedgefunds,thisweek broughtbackthelongonliesaswell.Retailwasmoreasighofreliefthatitbouncedso much but looking everywhere across all sectors foropportunities.NGLsTheNGLbarrelatMt.Belvieuincreased1.7%to$0.571from$0.564/galthisweek. The NGL barrel

27、at Conway decreased 9.7% to $0.441 from $0.488/gal this week. The spread between Mt. Belvieu and Conway NGLs widened to $0.130 from$0.073/galthisweek.Notably,theweeklyaverageofE/PmixatConwaywasdown43%WoW.Propane/Propyleneinventoriesdecreased1.9MMBblsto68.7MMBbls asallPADDsweredownthisweek.PADD3hadth

28、elargestdrawdown1.0MMbbls followed by a 0.6 MMbbls draw in PADD 2. Total US weekly exports of propane increased to 993 Mbpd from 934 Mbpd this week. Seaborne LPG margins decreased to $0.079/gal from $0.081 this week but still wider than normal as the spread between US and European propanenarrowed.Fi

29、gure 3: LPG Shipping Cost ($/gal)PropanePrice(Europe)$0.79Transportation$0.056Propane(US)$0.65MarginMargin$0.079Source: UBS estimates, Bloomberg, ClarksonsFigure4:Mt.BelvieuNGLPrices($/gallon)Figure 5: Conway NGL Prices($/gallon)$1.80$1.60$1.40$1.20$1.00$0.80$0.60$0.40$0.20$0.00Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul

30、-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19EthanePropaneN-Butane$1.80$1.60$1.40$1.20$1.00$0.80$0.60$0.40$0.20$0.00Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19E/PMixPropaneN-ButaneIso-ButaneNaturalGasolineNGLComposite Iso-ButaneNaturalGasolineNGLCompositeSource: BentekNote:Pricesasof1/10/2019.Source: BentekNote: Prices as o

31、f 1/10/2019.Figure 6: NAPTHA vs.Ethane(USD/Gallon)Figure 7: Global Propane Prices(USD/Gallon)$2.20$2.00$1.80$1.60$1.40$1.20$1.00$0.80$0.60$0.40$0.20$0.00Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19EuropeSingaporeJapanPersianGulfMt. Belvieu EthaneSource: BloombergNote: Prices as of 1/10/2019.$1.40$1.20

32、$1.00$0.80$0.60$0.40$0.20$0.00Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18NorthAmericaFarEastAsiaEuropeSource: BloombergNote: Prices as of 1/10/2019.Figure 8:HGLStocksFigure 9: Propane/PropyleneStocks80604020016111621263136414651Min/Max 14-1820192018201780604020016111621263136414651Min/Max 14-18201920182017

33、Source:EIASource: EIAFigure 10: Propane/Propylene StocksbyPADDFigure 11: PropaneExports120,000100,00080,000MBbls60,000MBbls40,00020,000001/1607/1601/1707/1701/1807/1801/19PADD1PADD2PADD3PADD4&516111621263136414651Min/Max 15-18201920182017Source:EIASource: EIAEthylene margins (derived from Ethane) in

34、creased 115.4% WoW to $0.028/lb from$0.013/lb. The increase was driven by an 11.3% decrease in ethane prices to $0.284 from $0.320/gal coupled with a 0.6% increase in ethylene prices to $0.180 from$0.179/lb. Ethylene margins (derived from Propane) decreased 43.9% WoW to$0.046/lb from $0.082/lb. The

35、decrease was driven by an 8.0% increase in propane prices to $0.664 from $0.615/gal partially offset by the 0.6% increase in ethylene. Propylene prices decreased 5.2% to $0.368 from $0.388/lb this week.EthyleneFDEthyleneFDUSGC/lb17.817.917.817.818.017.918.6-3.8%ButadieneCIFUSG/lb50.050.050.050.050.0

36、50.051.5-2.9%Petrochemicals4-Jan7-Jan8-Jan9-Jan10-JanWeekly PricePrevious Week PriceWoW % changePG Propylene FD USG /lb36.837.336.836.836.836.938.7-4.7%Benzene Ugulf M1 /gal176.0178.0181.0188.0190.0182.6172.75.8%Ethane6.0-3.3%Normal Butane3.02.93.06.0-50.4%Ethylene Production Margin (/lb)Propane2.92

37、.2.65.0-48.1%NaturalEthylene Production Margin (/lb)Propane5.0-48.1%NaturalGasoline(0.8)(5.5)(1.7)(4.4)(4.4)(3.4)3.2-205.0%Figure 13: Cracking Model (Ethane vs. Propane)Ethylene Production EconomicsEthyleneFeedstockGross MarginEthanePropaneFeedstock Price (Mont Bevieu) ($

38、/gal)$0.284$0.664Gallon of Feedstock per LB of Ethane0.4340.563Price Per lb of Ethane ($/lb) $0.123$0.374 Gross Margin ($/lb)$0.057-$0.194Ethylene Production EconomicsCents /LbPriceUnitsEthaneYieldPropaneYieldConversionEthylene Price ($/lb)0.180Bi-ProductsPropylene$0.012$0.147$0.3680.37cnts/lb3.30%4

39、0.00%1.00Butadiene0.0070.0360.5000.50$/lb2.00%7.20%1.00Butylene0.0040.0120.3741.80$/gal1.20%3.10%4.81Butane0.0000.0000.1730.83$/gal0.04%0.00%4.81Pygas (use Motor gasoline)0.0040.0310.1321.32$/gal3.30%23.70%10.00Fuel Oil0.0000.0020.1670.80$/gal0.00%0.01%4.81Fuel Gas 0.0080.042 2.6002.60$/Mmbtu0.30%1.

40、60%1.00Total Co-product ($/lb) $0.045$0.319 Total Income$0.225$0.499CostsEthane ($/lb)*$0.123$0.374Raw Material Spread$0.101$0.126Electricity$0.003$0.003Net Fuel gas Costs$0.026$0.031Other$0.004$0.005Total Variable$0.156$0.413Total Fixed $0.040Total Costs$0.196$0.453Ethylene Margin ($/lb)$0.028$0.04

41、6Source: Chemical Data: Monthly Petrochemical & Plastic Analysis-Jan 2014, Bentek, UBS estimates Note: Prices are spot prices as of 1/10/2019.ThefrontmonthNatGascontract(NG1)0.8%to$2.969fromNA hubs were mostly up this Transco Zone 6, Tetco and AECO posted WoWupThe1MWahaBasisto ($1.45) from ($1.38) t

42、hisweek.The Storage withdrawal for the week ended January 4th was 91 Bcf, below the 5-year average of 187 Bcf and last years 337 Bcf withdrawal. The withdrawal was above consensus estimates of 71 Bcf, leaving inventories 464 Bcf below the 5-year average. Notably, natural gas stocks remained below th

43、eir 5-year range this week.Figure14:NaturalGasRigCountvs.NG1PriceFigure 15: Natural Gas Stock(Bcf)300250200150100500$64,5004,000$53,500$43,0002,500$32,000$21,5001,000$1500$0001/1803/1805/1807/1809/1811/1801/19NatgasRigCountNG1 SpotPrice16111621263136414651Min/Max 14-18201920182017Source: EIA,BakerHu

44、ghesSource: EIAThe National Weather service is predicting warmer than normal in the West, Southwest, and Southeast of the US and normal weather in the Northeast and northern half of the Midwest over the next 6-10 days.Figure 17: Natural Gas Futures ($/MMBtu)Figure 16: 6-10 Day Temp ForecastSource: N

45、OAAJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2019202020212022Source: FactSetThefrontmonthNatGascontract(NG1)0.8%to$2.969fromNA hubs were mostly up this Transco Zone 6, Tetco and AECO posted WoWupThe1MWahaBasisto ($1.45) from ($1.38) thisweek.Figure 18: Natural Gas Futures($/MMBtu)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugS

46、epOctNovDec2019$2.967$2.825$2.706$2.696$2.747$2.798$2.804$2.780$2.804$2.861$3.016$3.1252020$3.076$2.892$2.619$2.565$2.586$2.611$2.619$2.605$2.630$2.675$2.840$2.9652021$2.902$2.747$2.497$2.484$2.526$2.570$2.585$2.574$2.610$2.645$2.863$2.9522022$2.899$2.787$2.532$2.514$2.548$2.580$2.591$2.583$2.604$2.

47、665$2.820$2.936Source: FactSetNote: Futures as of 1/11/2019.Natural Gas FuturesFigure 19: Henry Hub/Waha Basis SwapFigure 20: Nat GasFuturesNatural Gas Futures$4.00Natural Gas Spot PricesHenry Hub Spot$2.95Natural Gas Spot PricesHenry Hub Spot$2.95Waha Spot Price$1.99CurrentWAHA-HHSpread-$0.96$2.00$

48、1.00$0.00 ($1.00)($2.00)($3.00)Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20WahaBasisSwapImplied Waha Futures Henry HubFuturesSource: Bloomberg, UBS Note: Prices as of 1/11/2019.Figure 21: Natural Gas Differential MapNatural Gas Futures ContractsNatural Gas Futures ContractsHenry Hub Waha Bas is ImpliedWaha

49、FuturesSwapFutures1 Month Contract$3.04($1.45)$1.596 Month Contract$2.83($1.41)$1.4112 Month Contract$3.15($0.77)$2.3818 Month Contract$2.61($0.73)$1.8824 Month Contract$2.98($0.38)$2.60Source: Bloomberg, UBS Note: Prices as of 1/11/2019.AECOAECO$1.71WoW 16.3%QTD17.3%Transco Zone 6WoW 44.1%QTD90.0%R

50、ockies(CIG)WoW 3.6%QTD8.5%TranscoLeidyWoW 1.9%QTD8.8%ChicagoWoW -2.6%QTD 3.4%Tetco M3 $3.58WoW 31.1%QTD87.5%El Paso (SJ)WoW -21.5%QTD-24.4%TETCO M2 $2.57WoW -1.2%QTD5.6%Dominion SP $2.58WoW 0.4%QTD8.4%TCO Pool $2.65WoW 0.0%QTD10.2%Permian (WAHA) $2.02WoW -13.7%QTD-17.8%CarthageWoW 2.7%QTD2.6%Henry H

51、ub $2.86WoW -2.4%QTD4.6%Katy$2.78WoW -3.1%QTD 2.5%Source: BloombergNote: Prices are averages as of 1/10/2019.Crude OilTheMidland/WTIdifferentialwidenedto($5.60)from($5.58)thisweek.TheLLS/Brent differential narrowed to ($1.58) from ($2.00) this week. The Brent/WTI differential widened to $8.21 from $

52、7.28 this week. The WCS/WTI differential narrowed to($9.69) from($14.25)thisweek,itstightestspreadsinceAugust17.TheMEH-WTIdifferential widened to $5.63 from $4.89 this week. The Bakken/WTI differential widened to $1.77 from $1.50 this week. We note for the majority of 18, Bakken traded at a discount

53、 to WTI,butreversedduringthesecondweekofDecember.Crudepricesmovedhigherthis week.Pricesseemedtobesupportedbythebroadermarketrecovery,optimismabout US-Chinatradetalks,andSaudisEnergyMinisterconfirmingexportcuts.Crudestocks decreasedto1.7MMBblsWoWto439.7MMBbls,comparedtoa5-yearaveragedraw of 2.6 MMBbl

54、s. WoW US production was unchanged at 11.7 MMbpd. Cushing stocks increased 0.3 MMBbls WoW to 42.3 MMBbls. Weekly crude exports decreased to 2,065Mbpd from 2,237Mbpd.WCS$40.55WCS$40.5527.4%QTD 32.4%Bakken9.3%QTD11.4%ANS$58.928.5%QTD12.3%Brent$58.459.5%QTD12.3%Midland WoW 10.2%QTD 16.9%WTI$50.249.0%QT

55、D13.0%MEH$55.879.6%QTD13.2%LLS$56.87 QTD14.2%Source: UBS, BloombergNote: Prices are weekly average ended 1/10/2019.Brent-WTI$8.21$7.2812.7%$7.987.8%$7.987.8%Midland-WTI($5.60)($5.58)0.4%($5.63)-16.7%($5.63)-16.7%Brent-WTI$8.21$7.2812.7%$7.987.8%$7.987.8%Midland-WTI($5.60)($5.58)0.4%($5.63)-16.7%($5.

56、63)-16.7%ANS-WTI$8.68$8.205.9%$8.568.0%$8.568.0%1/10/20191/3/2019Weekly % Chg.QTD AverageQTD % Chg.YTD Avg.YTD % Chg.LLS-WTI$6.63$5.2925.4%$6.3624.5%$6.3624.5%Bakken-WTI$1.77$1.5018.0%$1.84-22.2%$1.84-22.2%Brent-Bakken$6.44$5.7811.4%$6.1421.2%$6.1421.2%LLS-Brent($1.58)($2.00)-20.8%($1.62)-43.6%($1.6

57、2)-43.6%WCS-WTI($9.69)($14.25)-32.0%($10.53)-38.4%($10.53)-38.4%ANS-Bakken$6.91$6.703.1%$6.7219.7%$6.7219.7%Brent-Midland$13.81$12.867.4%$13.61-2.6%$13.61-2.6%ANS-Bakken$6.91$6.703.1%$6.7219.7%$6.7219.7%Brent-Midland$13.81$12.867.4%$13.61-2.6%$13.61-2.6%MEH-WTI$5.63$4.8915.2%$5.4915.0%$5.4915.0%Note

58、: Prices are weekly average ended 1/10/2019.Figure24:CrudeOilStocks(millionBarrels)Figure 25: Cushing Stock (millionBarrels)016111621263136414651Min/Max 14-182019201820178070605040302010016111621263136414651Min/Max 14-18201920182017Source:EIASource: EIAFigure 26: US Crude Oil FieldProduction(MMBPD)F

59、igure 27: Refinery Crude Throughputs(MMBPD)1412108642016111621263136414651Min/Max 14-1820192018201716111621263136414651Min/Max 14-18201920182017Source:EIASource: EIAFigure28:OilRigCountvs.WTISpot1PriceFigure 29: Crude Oil Exports(MBPD)1,8001,6001,4001,200,000$80,000$801,7508001,500600$601,250$160$14

60、0$120$1003,2503,0002,7502,5002,2502,0000$40$20$01,00075050025001/1803/1805/1807/1809/1811/1801/19OilRigsWTI Spot 1016111621263136414651Min/Max 14-18201920182017Source: EIA,BakerHughesSource: EIAFigure 30: PADD I Gasoline Stockpiles (MMBbls)Figure 31: PADD II Gasoline Stockpiles(MMBbls)80657560706555