醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)：中金醫(yī)藥月度7+5組合3月組合

1、行情回顧與本月策略二月行情回顧A 股醫(yī)藥過去一月A股醫(yī)藥板塊指數(shù)上漲跌.，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指上漲.（164.49（86.7康美藥業(yè)（81.8，跌幅前三分別是T 長生（29.1、宜華健康（14.2、德展健康（6.3港股醫(yī)藥上月漲幅前三為佳兆業(yè)健康（5.2%、美瑞健康國際（64.1%、華誼騰訊娛樂（1.44，跌幅前三分別是中國再生醫(yī)學(xué)（4.5、REPUC HC（17.57、亮晴控股（16.3美國中概股醫(yī)藥（21.02（.（13.4，跌幅前三為中國蘇軒堂藥業(yè)（12.66、知臨集團(tuán)（2.90、惠普森醫(yī)藥（2.0%1:A股股價(jià)表現(xiàn)，相對估值溢價(jià)250%350%200%150%300%250%200%100%150

2、%50%100%50%2014/12/312015/2/282015/4/302015/6/302015/8/312015/10/312015/12/312014/12/312015/2/282015/4/302015/6/302015/8/312015/10/312015/12/312016/2/292016/4/302016/6/302016/8/312016/10/312016/12/312017/2/282017/4/302017/6/302017/8/312017/10/312017/12/312018/2/282018/4/302018/6/302018/8/312018/10/3

3、12018/12/312019/2/28相對估值溢價(jià)（右軸）滬深300（左軸）申萬醫(yī)藥指數(shù)（左軸）資料來源：萬得資訊，本月中金醫(yī)藥投資組合投資組合：A 股：科倫藥業(yè)、恒瑞醫(yī)藥、樂普醫(yī)療、華東醫(yī)藥、華潤三九、凱利泰、國藥一致。H 股：中國生物制藥、石藥集團(tuán)、君實(shí)生物、石四藥集團(tuán)、威高股份。A A 4.29ppt。二月H 股組合平均上漲1.3H 股恒生醫(yī)療保健指數(shù)上漲3.52.14pp。圖表 2: 2 月月度 7+5 組合表現(xiàn)股票代碼年初至今漲跌幅一季度至今漲跌幅二月漲跌幅A股科倫藥業(yè)002422.SZ15.40%15.40%11.36%華東醫(yī)藥000963.SZ19.80%19.80%19.49

4、%樂普醫(yī)療300003.SZ24.12%24.12%26.99%國藥一致000028.SZ6.61%6.61%12.85%美年健康002044.SZ15.72%15.72%13.44%恒瑞醫(yī)藥600276.SH36.30%36.30%21.76%凱利泰300326.SZ19.29%19.29%14.58%股石藥集團(tuán)1093.HK18.58%18.58%-0.45%中國生物制藥1177.HK31.98%31.98%3.18%威高股份1066.HK7.57%7.57%4.12%石四藥集團(tuán)2005.HK20.00%20.00%-1.00%白云山0874.HK8.56%8.56%1.00%資料來源：萬

5、得資訊，圖表 3: 3 月月度 7+5 圖表 3: 3 月月度 7+5 組合推薦邏輯EPSP/E股票代碼貨幣單位 2018A/E 主要推薦邏輯A股科倫藥業(yè)002422.SZ CNY0.520.881.121.4027.321.317.0 1）業(yè)績保持高速增長，經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流大幅提升； 2）銷售費(fèi)用、研發(fā)費(fèi)用進(jìn)一步提恒瑞醫(yī)藥600276.SH CNY0.871.101.441.7665.350.140.9 1）業(yè)績符合預(yù)期；2）腫瘤和麻醉板塊表現(xiàn)亮眼；3）期待2019年新藥放量。樂普醫(yī)療300003.SZ CNY0.500.691.071.4037.424.318.5 1）可降解支架上市在即，器械

6、創(chuàng)新龍頭楊帆再起航； 2）約三年左右獨(dú)占期，業(yè)績增凱利泰300326.SZ CNY0.270.650.430.5515.523.118.4 1）業(yè)績符合預(yù)期，持續(xù)高增長；2）易生科技剝離，投資收益豐厚；3）Elliquence 新華東醫(yī)藥000963.SZ CNY1.221.531.922.3520.916.613.6 1）主營產(chǎn)品基層渠道進(jìn)一步開拓；2）預(yù)計(jì)百令膠囊2018年收入有望超25億元，同比國藥一致000028.SZ CNY2.472.803.103.5416.414.812.9 1）“零售+分銷”雙輪驅(qū)動，專業(yè)化服務(wù)商價(jià)值凸顯； 2）零售：布局全國，行業(yè)領(lǐng)華潤三九000999.SZ

7、 CNY1.331.461.671.8817.215.113.4 1）增長穩(wěn)健，品牌優(yōu)勢將愈來愈強(qiáng)；2）品牌OTC與連鎖零售強(qiáng)強(qiáng)聯(lián)合將成為趨勢，集中度有望提升；3）醫(yī)藥新零售時(shí)代開啟，公司品牌優(yōu)勢將愈來愈高。股1）扣除泰德并表的內(nèi)生增速持續(xù)攀升；2）強(qiáng)大的研發(fā)實(shí)力和外延并購能力有望推動中國生物制藥1177.HKHKD0.200.240.280.3325.521.518.1 公司實(shí)現(xiàn)長期強(qiáng)有力的增長；3）我們認(rèn)為近期行業(yè)政策為公司帶來的長期利益要遠(yuǎn)高于短期的壓力。石藥集團(tuán)1093.HKCNY0.450.580.730.9122.818.314.6 1）核心品種保持強(qiáng)勁增長；2）公司毛利率持續(xù)提升

8、，主要得益于產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)改善以及威高股份1066.HKCNY0.300.340.390.4518.215.613.7 1）原有品種恢復(fù)強(qiáng)勁增長；2）看好愛瑯為公司帶來的長期利益；3）H 股全流通已完成。1）全球生物制劑市場實(shí)現(xiàn)快速增長；中國市場擁有顯著的增長潛力； 2）君實(shí)是創(chuàng)新厚明顯；3）傳統(tǒng)板塊增長穩(wěn)定，業(yè)績持續(xù)高增長。產(chǎn)品值得期待。增12%；3）積極擴(kuò)充糖尿病產(chǎn)品線。先；3）分銷：深耕兩廣地區(qū)，業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)展盈利能力。自營產(chǎn)品占比提升；3）研發(fā)管線持續(xù)推進(jìn)。君實(shí)生物-B1877.HK-0.41-0.47 -0.52 -0.04N.MN.MN.M 驅(qū)動型生物制藥公司，擁有從研發(fā)到商業(yè)化的實(shí)力；3

9、）我們預(yù)計(jì)年君實(shí)主要產(chǎn)品的銷售收入將超過96 億元。石四藥集團(tuán)2005.HK0.220.30 0.38 0.45 23.6 18.8 15.7 1）2018年業(yè)績或強(qiáng)勁增長；2）2018年大輸液行業(yè)進(jìn)一步整合；3）我們預(yù)計(jì)新產(chǎn)品將在2019年貢獻(xiàn)收入。資料來源：萬得資訊，滬股通持股量占流通股比例排名前三的是恒瑞醫(yī)藥、通化東寶、安圖生物；深股通持股量占流通股比例排名前三的是貝瑞基因、泰格醫(yī)藥、愛爾眼科；港股通持股量占流通股比例排名前三的是山東新華制藥股份、東陽光藥、白云山。二月滬股通增持量占流通股比例排名前三的是恒瑞醫(yī)藥、藥明康德、昆藥集團(tuán)；深股通增持量占流通股比例排名前三的是愛爾眼科、凱利泰、

10、迪安診斷；港股通增持量占流通股比例排名前三的是東陽光藥、神威藥業(yè)、山東新華制藥股份。證券代碼 證券簡稱持股量占流通股（千股）（%）證券代碼 證券簡稱 持股量變化 證券代碼 證券簡稱持股量占流通股（千股）（%）證券代碼 證券簡稱 持股量變化 占流通股（千股）（%）證券代碼 證券簡稱 持股量變化 占流通股（千股）（%）滬股通按持股量最新排序（前十） 滬股通本月增持量排序（前十） 滬股通本月減持量排序（前十） 600867.SH通化東寶142,404.347.29603259.SH藥明康德876.980.85600518.SH康美藥業(yè)-48,093.90-1.09600535.SH天士力67,481

11、.984.46600594.SH益佰制藥3,549.350.45603368.SH柳藥股份-59.54-0.50600062.SH華潤雙鶴21,185.052.57603658.SH安圖生物564.300.42601607.SH上海醫(yī)藥-4,891.52-0.25603259.SH藥明康德2,053.951.97600329.SH中新藥業(yè)1,963.850.34600566.SH濟(jì)川藥業(yè)-1,138.78-0.14 柳藥股份中國醫(yī)藥 莎普愛思-0.13深股通按持股量最新排序（前十） 深股通本月增持量排序（前十） 深股通本月減持量排序（前十） 300347.SZ泰格醫(yī)藥42,403.2711.7

12、5300326.SZ凱利泰7,215.211.01002737.SZ葵花藥業(yè)-4,059.47-0.70000538.SZ云南白藥76,462.277.34002223.SZ魚躍醫(yī)療9,199.440.92000650.SZ仁和藥業(yè)-3,948.40-0.32000423.SZ東阿阿膠37,336.205.71300347.SZ泰格醫(yī)藥3,785.800.75000989.SZ九芝堂-2,265.08-0.26002727.SZ一心堂11,287.453.86002422.SZ科倫藥業(yè)8,387.110.58000503.SZ國新健康-1,325.08-0.15 華東醫(yī)藥 美年健康 嘉事堂-0

13、.09港股通按持股量最新排序（前十） 港股通本月增持量排序（前十） 港股通本月減持量排序（前十） 1558.HK東陽光藥59,948.0426.552877.HK神威藥業(yè)3,909.000.481666.HK同仁堂科技-7,365.00-1.172196.HK復(fù)星醫(yī)藥130,328.0423.610867.HK康哲藥業(yè)9,646.000.392196.HK復(fù)星醫(yī)藥-3,985.50-0.712666.HK環(huán)球醫(yī)療277,626.5016.182186.HK綠葉制藥9,163.000.281513.HK麗珠醫(yī)藥-1,422.94-0.581302.HK先健科技541,418.0012.51024

14、1.HK阿里健康9,742.000.091177.HK中國生物制-38,437.34-0.311513.HK麗珠醫(yī)藥21,050.428.560950.HK李氏大藥廠416.000.071548.HK金斯瑞生物-3,774.00-0.22600276.SH恒瑞醫(yī)藥487,572.1013.29600276.SH恒瑞醫(yī)藥35,850.370.98600750.SH江中藥業(yè)-6,288.03-1.50603658.SH安圖生物6,322.914.63600422.SH昆藥集團(tuán)4,207.890.56600062.SH華潤雙鶴-6,593.93-0.80600079.SH人福醫(yī)藥35,628.372

15、.77600781.SH輔仁藥業(yè)1,691.190.45600535.SH天士力-4,891.70-0.32601607.SH上海醫(yī)藥39,846.022.07603387.SH基蛋生物351.130.38600557.SH康緣藥業(yè)-1,316.05-0.22603387.SH基蛋生物1,683.451.83600587.SH新華醫(yī)療1,304.250.32600521.SH華海藥業(yè)-1,555.03-0.13000710.SZ貝瑞基因9,335.6515.01300015.SZ愛爾眼科28,065.751.18002262.SZ恩華藥業(yè)-13,235.74-1.30300015.SZ愛爾眼科

16、164,037.508.61300244.SZ迪安診斷6,043.550.97000915.SZ山大華特-1,226.01-0.53000999.SZ華潤三九70,753.807.23000028.SZ國藥一致3,206.670.86002589.SZ瑞康醫(yī)藥-4,069.19-0.27002422.SZ科倫藥業(yè)43,313.714.21000999.SZ華潤三九6,963.270.71002294.SZ信立泰-1,916.99-0.18300142.SZ沃森生物52,209.383.79300122.SZ智飛生物8,116.620.51002252.SZ上海萊士-4,694.47-0.100

17、719.HK山東新華制73,072.6037.471558.HK東陽光藥6,210.042.750874.HK白云山-4,324.48-1.970874.HK白云山56,864.9825.860719.HK山東新華制878.000.452607.HK上海醫(yī)藥-8,705.41-0.952186.HK綠葉制藥567,904.0017.341515.HK華潤鳳凰醫(yī)3,965.000.311530.HK三生制藥-15,293.26-0.601666.HK同仁堂科技97,055.2015.441099.HK國藥控股1,289.360.111093.HK石藥集團(tuán)-30,765.30-0.492607.H

18、K上海醫(yī)藥110,890.1912.071833.HK平安好醫(yī)生837.100.082666.HK環(huán)球醫(yī)療-4,358.50-0.25資料來源：萬得資訊，圖表 5: A 股醫(yī)藥公司最近一月重點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)證券代碼 證券簡稱 月收盤價(jià)(人民幣)月漲跌幅 (%)月?lián)Q手率 (%)總市值 (人民幣 百萬)流通A股占總股 本比例(%)月成交額 (人民幣 百萬)月成交量 (千股)000028.SZ國藥一致45.868.164.1418,91571.88567.0212,730.61000423.SZ東阿阿膠45.7411.4313.7929,91599.984,01890,179000513.SZ麗珠集團(tuán)33.4

19、523.1127.8024,05263.733,861127,404000661.SZ長春高新226.0521.6213.0838,45499.914,63922,228000963.SZ華東醫(yī)藥31.7019.4920.7946,224100.009,129301,195000999.SZ華潤三九25.1413.866.3224,61099.951,48961,882002007.SZ華蘭生物38.7115.1726.8536,20885.817,897215,513002022.SZ科華生物10.9023.4426.615,61695.941,342131,550002038.SZ雙鷺?biāo)帢I(yè)

20、27.1612.4230.1118,60282.784,338170,731002044.SZ美年健康17.3013.4411.0754,00375.114,420259,570002223.SZ魚躍醫(yī)療23.6510.5117.6123,70985.303,337150,542002262.SZ恩華藥業(yè)11.1821.2646.3111,40486.684,261409,462002422.SZ科倫藥業(yè)23.8311.3617.1834,31071.504,124176,799002433.SZ太安堂5.6323.7416.534,31796.11644121,807002550.SZ千紅制

21、藥4.6321.8413.845,92670.61537125,074002603.SZ以嶺藥業(yè)12.4415.4015.3415,00682.021,764151,822002737.SZ葵花藥業(yè)16.1714.5220.909,44388.491,745108,023300003.SZ樂普醫(yī)療25.8326.9938.3646,02085.0513,394581,311300015.SZ愛爾眼科32.1718.4510.6676,67379.966,258203,093300026.SZ紅日藥業(yè)3.4215.9314.0110,29882.931,135349,732300122.SZ智飛

22、生物44.4429.5625.1671,10454.328,895218,674300199.SZ翰宇藥業(yè)9.7920.4242.069,08959.582,105232,662300244.SZ迪安診斷18.3027.5324.3811,35467.311,699101,032300246.SZ寶萊特13.9428.3631.382,03673.7643033,818300255.SZ常山藥業(yè)4.9419.0423.134,61969.11699149,443300267.SZ爾康制藥3.9922.3926.008,23066.371,324355,891300326.SZ凱利泰10.141

23、4.5820.737,29789.591,277133,668300347.SZ泰格醫(yī)藥56.2529.3119.6228,13572.163,51570,507300363.SZ博騰股份10.1925.4911.335,53157.0933135,095300463.SZ邁克生物19.5536.7121.2710,90965.751,35778,041600079.SH人福醫(yī)藥10.9717.5820.7414,85095.002,810266,758600085.SH同仁堂29.2410.8410.2140,102100.004,013139,979600276.SH恒瑞醫(yī)藥71.9021

24、.768.57265,01399.5720,869314,592600332.SH白云山37.6312.3322.6661,17965.898,726242,694600436.SH片仔癀105.9319.8615.8363,909100.009,69595,507600511.SH國藥股份24.819.1020.6418,96536.321,39157,300600518.SH康美藥業(yè)10.6281.8578.1452,82288.5330,8173,440,672600521.SH華海藥業(yè)13.5231.5224.7316,91198.853,787305,806600535.SH天士力2

25、0.7615.0810.0831,403100.003,033152,505600587.SH新華醫(yī)療14.1420.449.375,74799.2750137,814600594.SH益佰制藥6.0629.7632.144,799100.001,399254,543600867.SH通化東寶14.5930.2721.0329,67696.055,443410,822601607.SH上海醫(yī)藥18.4214.4111.3852,35167.663,912218,773603108.SH潤達(dá)醫(yī)療8.9628.9227.185,19387.711,116138,162603658.SH安圖生物59

26、.3017.6414.7724,90632.511,14920,162603883.SH老百姓57.5222.5712.4016,39093.701,73333,114603939.SH益豐藥房55.2726.858.4920,82696.261,54930,803002030.SZ達(dá)安基因11.8832.5927.039,47395.792,245206,475002275.SZ桂林三金14.169.514.418,35790.3732523,519002294.SZ信立泰24.3722.8918.4325,491100.004,366192,739002390.SZ信邦制藥4.8538.5

27、720.088,086100.001,422331,225002424.SZ貴州百靈10.1123.7516.7614,26751.611,177122,089002462.SZ嘉事堂16.3419.8829.174,09499.521,13372,716002589.SZ瑞康醫(yī)藥7.4818.3544.1111,25572.083,433478,445002653.SZ海思科11.5517.0210.3112,47742.0750946,862002727.SZ一心堂22.8818.5531.4912,99151.481,96992,028002788.SZ鷺燕醫(yī)藥14.6122.8827.

28、302,80997.2555940,634600056.SH中國醫(yī)藥15.2324.2330.4916,27394.734,279308,575600763.SH通策醫(yī)療58.8914.5513.4418,882100.002,44543,101600993.SH馬應(yīng)龍15.3215.8012.816,60499.8180455,132600998.SH九州通15.445.752.9728,99188.4175349,340603368.SH柳州醫(yī)藥28.7511.9517.287,448100.001,19342,313資料來源：萬得資訊，；注：淺灰色背景表示的是中金覆蓋公司，白色背景為未覆

29、蓋公司圖表 6: 港股和美國中概股醫(yī)藥公司最近一月重點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)證券代碼 證券簡稱 月收盤價(jià) (當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?月漲跌幅 (%)月?lián)Q手率 (%)總市值 (當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?百萬)月成交額 ( 當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?百萬)月成交量 (千股)H股0874.HK白云山30.451.0016.6949,5051,13536,6941066.HK威高股份6.824.121.9630,84261688,8431093.HK石藥集團(tuán)13.40-0.4510.6483,5678,906663,5751177.HK中國生物制藥6.813.189.6785,7268,2151,216,7791513.HK麗珠醫(yī)藥27.659.727.1019,

30、88246517,4701530.HK三生制藥12.98-0.926.6133,0172,119168,1541666.HK同仁堂科技10.28-2.475.1113,16633532,1502005.HK石四藥集團(tuán)6.96-1.002.8120,97860084,6572607.HK上海醫(yī)藥17.645.637.3550,1341,18767,5103689.HK康華醫(yī)療6.701.210.192,24011593613.HK同仁堂國藥13.54-1.881.5511,33418212,9811518.HK新世紀(jì)醫(yī)療6.03-5.780.062,95522940570.HK中國中藥5.181

31、.575.3926,0851,433271,6143320.HK華潤醫(yī)藥10.52-5.570.7066,11347743,9683933.HK聯(lián)邦制藥4.766.974.507,80534673,8250460.HK四環(huán)醫(yī)藥1.64-0.611.5115,533241143,0510587.HK華瀚生物制藥0.530.000.003,814-0867.HK康哲藥業(yè)8.261.605.9520,4881,229147,6720950.HK李氏大藥廠6.857.701.254,055497,4261011.HK泰凌醫(yī)藥0.731.390.971,1731215,5521358.HK普華和順1.1

32、71.740.481,83697,5861515.HK鳳凰醫(yī)療5.632.744.667,30033960,4062120.HK康寧醫(yī)院38.554.470.582,91141172186.HK綠葉制藥5.860.515.1819,1911,007169,5982348.HK東瑞制藥1.645.130.662,6021710,5492666.HK環(huán)球醫(yī)療7.3616.644.3912,63252675,284美股中概股 CBPO.O泰邦生物80.36-1.025.863,163-2,307BGNE.O百濟(jì)神州137.055.850.008,170-4,213HCM.O和黃中國醫(yī)藥26.0914

33、.932.063,467-2,736CCM.N泰和誠醫(yī)療3.102.720.08134-35KANG.O愛康國賓20.530.000.000-0資料來源：萬得資訊，；注：淺灰色背景表示的是中金覆蓋公司，白色背景為未覆蓋公司圖表 7: A 股可比公司估值表公司名稱 代碼 收盤價(jià) ( 元)2019/3/1總市值 （百萬元） 每股收益( 元)P/EP/B2017A2018E2019E2020E2017A2018E2019E2020E2017A2018E2019E2020E恒瑞醫(yī)藥 60027672.00265,3820.871.101.441.7682.5x65.3x50.1x40.9x17.3x1

34、3.5x11.0 x9.0 x華東醫(yī)藥 00096331.9346,5601.221.531.922.3526.2x20.9x16.6x13.6x5.5x4.7x3.9x3.2x恩華藥業(yè) 00226211.2211,4450.390.510.650.7929.0 x21.8x17.4x14.1x4.7x3.9x3.2x2.7x人福醫(yī)藥 60007910.9314,7961.530.580.640.747.2x18.8x17.1x14.7x1.1x1.0 x1.0 x0.9x科倫藥業(yè) 00242223.9034,4110.520.881.121.4046.0 x27.3x21.3x17.0 x2

35、.9x2.7x2.5x2.3x貝達(dá)藥業(yè) 30055842.4317,0140.640.440.470.5266.0 x96.3x90.9x82.1x8.3x7.8x7.4x6.9x康弘藥業(yè) 00277340.1527,0420.961.171.481.9042.0 x34.4x27.2x21.1x7.6x6.5x5.5x4.6x凱萊英00282184.3719,466-1.952.573.40-43.2x32.9x24.8x-7.6x6.3x5.1x信立泰00229424.2825,397-1.471.601.81-16.5x15.2x13.4x-3.7x3.2x2.7x化學(xué)制劑藥中值 10,

36、88739.0 x27.3x21.5x17.2x5.6x4.3x3.6x3.0 x化學(xué)原料藥中值 7,30738.8x29.9x20.8x15.8x2.7x2.1x1.8x1.7x生物制藥中值 16,63443.2x33.9x26.3x18.4x4.4x4.1x3.4x2.9x天士力 60053520.7131,3270.911.071.161.3022.8x19.4x17.9x15.9x3.6x3.2x2.8x2.5x以嶺藥業(yè) 00260312.4515,0190.450.510.610.7127.8x24.3x20.3x17.6x2.1x2.0 x1.8x1.7x華潤三九 00099925

37、.1724,6391.331.461.671.8818.9x17.2x15.1x13.4x2.5x2.3x2.1x1.9x昆藥集團(tuán) 6004227.295,5580.430.430.470.5016.8x17.1x15.6x14.7x1.5x1.4x1.3x1.2x健民集團(tuán)60097616.762,5710.480.550.650.9435.1x30.5x25.9x17.9x2.4x2.3x2.1x1.9x紅日藥業(yè)3000263.3910,2070.230.25-14.6x13.6x-益佰制藥6005946.114,8390.610.74-10.0 x8.3x-上海凱寶3000394.644,9720.260.27-17.5x17.4x-江中藥業(yè)60075018.007,560-現(xiàn)代中藥中值 4,97218.2x17.4x15.6x14.7x2.4x2.2x1.9x1.7x品牌中藥中值 9,73625.4x21.8x19.5x16.8x3.2x2.8x2.6x2.3x綜合性制藥企業(yè)中值 13,86523.2x19.1x17.8x15.7x2.6x1.9x1.7x1.6x國藥股份 60051124.8318,