印度尼西亞：電子商務(wù)激增正在改變習(xí)慣

1、January 31, 2019 09:00 PM GMTDisruption Decoded: Indonesia ConsumerJanuary 31, 2019 09:00 PM GMTeCommercesurgechangingNewdata,channelchecksandourproprietaryAlphaWisesurveypromptusincreaseourmarketsizeestimatesIndonesiaeCommerce.Indonesiaisnow only five years behind China in terms of penetration, and

2、 we estimate eCommercesaleswillcrossUS$50bnby2023,implyinga32%CAGR.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorgan

3、StanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesnotwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoN

4、ASD/NYSErestrictionson communicationswithasubjectpublicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.ContributorsMORGAN STANLEY ASIA (SINGAPORE) PTE.+Divya Gangahar KothiyalEquityAnalyst+656834-6438 HYPERLINK mailto:Divya.Gangahar Divya.GangaharPT. MORGAN STANLEY SEKURITAS INDONESIA+P

5、utri L Tobing, CFAResearch Associate+6221 3048-8120 HYPERLINK mailto:Putri.L.Tobing Putri.L.TobingMORGAN STANLEY ASIA (SINGAPORE) PTE.+Nico Yosman, CFAEquityAnalyst+656834-6731 HYPERLINK mailto:Nico.Yosman Nico.YosmanDisruption Decoded: Indonesia ConsumereCommercesurgechangingNewdata,channelchecksan

6、dourproprietaryAlphaWisesurveyusincreaseourmarketsizeestimatesIndonesiaeCommerce.IndonesiaisnowonlyfiveyearsbehindChinaintermsofpenetration,weestimateeCommercesaleswillcrossUS$50bnby2023,implyinga 32%CAGR.Biggerthangeneralperception:thinkeCommerceinIndonesia isbiggerthaninvestorsperceivenotjustinsiz

7、ebutintermsof impact.Itischangingpurchasingbehavioraswellaserodingtional competitive barriers. estimate that Indonesias mercemarketreachedUS$13bnin2018,whichwouldimply8%retailsales.Thisisnotablyaboveourpreviousestimateof(4.4%ofsales)partiallyduetobetterdataavailabilitybutalsototherapidgrowthinuserba

8、se.estimatethemarketgrewata CAGRofmorethan50%overthelasttwoyearsandexpecta32% CAGRinthenextfiveyears,withpenetrationlevelshitting18%by 2025(similartothetrajectoryseeninChina).AlphaWisesurveyvalidatesthegrowingprevalenceofshopping:Giventhedearthofdatainthisspace,weconductedface- to-faceinterviewswith

9、1,582peopleacrosseightcitiesinIndonesia togatherinsightsintotheironlinespendinghabits.Interestingly,oftherespondentsinoursurveyhadonlystartedshoppingwithinthepastyear,andthemajoritybelievedeCommercebecometheirmainmethodofshoppingovertime.TherearesmartphoneusersinIndonesiaandonlyabout30mnonlinepers.T

10、hegrowthpotentialoftheuserbaseisstillclearlyhuge.Apparelfirst:Clothing&footwearseemstobethebiggestcategory, with93%ofusersinoursurveybuyingthiscategoryonlineinthe12months(comparedtojust16-25%consumerelectronicsmobiledevices).Oftheseusers,halfshoppedonlineapparelleast once amonth.Industry ViewASEAN C

11、onsumer - AttractiveBehaviormodification:Fourkeytakeawaysfromthesurvey:1)ofuserscheckoffersandpricesonlinebeforebuyinganything in-store.2)70%willcontinueshoppingonlineevenifthereisainaldeliverycharge,whichshowsawillingnesstopayconve- nience.Fast(notfree)shippingwastheprimaryreasononewebsiteoveranoth

12、er.3)Beauty&personalcare,asacategory, featureshigherthanwewouldhavethoughtonlineshopping.The highest proportion of users that have increased their online spendinginthelast12monthscomefromsmallercitiesImpactonstocks:Ouranalysisreaffirmsourmedium-termconcern apparel-focused retailers like Matahari. Th

13、e average transaction sizeapparelonline,peroursurvey,issimilartoMataharisbasket size.Inaddition,withmoreconsumerscheckingpricingonlinebefore purchasing,offlinepriceincreasesmaybecapped. HYPERLINK /eqr/article/webapp/0570e896-9aea-11e8-8a8d-ba3eeb7654b4?ch=rpint&sch=cr OurOWrating HYPERLINK /eqr/arti

14、cle/webapp/0570e896-9aea-11e8-8a8d-ba3eeb7654b4?ch=rpint&sch=cr LPPFislargelyduetovaluationasthestockhasde-ratedto10 xPER (vs.RALSat18x)andoffersa7%dividendyield2019.beauty &personalcare(BPC)companieslikeUNVR,thecombinationeCommerceanddigitalmediaismakingiteasier/cheapersmaller companiestobuildbrand

15、sandoffernationwidedistribution.SEA,weremainconvincedthatitseCommerceplatformisbeing undervalued.Oursurveynotonlyconfirmsthepopularityofbutalsothatitsusersarewillingtopaydelivery,whichsolidifies its path toprofitability.Contents5ExecutiveSummary7Bigger than wethought11Still anybodysgame16eCommerce i

16、s being integrated into shopping behaviour19Impact onRetailers22 Impact on Staples25 Most enablers moving in the right directionAlphaWise SurveyDetailsMore onAlphaWiseExecutive SummaryInApril2018,welaidoutourframeworkandthoughtsonIndonesias eCommerce space in the report: HYPERLINK /eqr/article/webap

17、p/c3534bc4-a806-11e7-99f2-8e2fb3b0e506?ch=rpint&sch=tr Disruption Decoded: HYPERLINK /eqr/article/webapp/c3534bc4-a806-11e7-99f2-8e2fb3b0e506?ch=rpint&sch=tr DigitalDisruption.Dataavailabilityhasalwaysbeenanissueinspace,butoverthelastyearwehavemanagedtogetadditionalpointsthathelpusrefineandrevisitou

18、restimatesandviewseCommerce inIndonesia.The additional colour comes from our conversations with industry players, the availability of new third-party (McKinsey and Google-Temasek), as well as our proprietary AlphaWisesurveyconductedinOctober2018,inwhichweviewed1,582peopleacrosseightcitiestogatherins

19、ightsintotheir online spending habits andpreferences.Triangulatingthesethreenewsourcesofinformation,wearerefining ourestimatesIndonesiaseCommercemarketandbelieveitsetrationlevel(asa%ofretailsales)ishigherthanweassumedinthe April 2018report.estimateIndonesiaseCommercemarketwasUS$13bninwhichisabout8%o

20、fsales.Chinawasatasimilarpenetrationin2013andthemarketgrewata32%CAGRinthenextfiveyearsto reach19%penetrationbytheendof2018.Lookingatthegrowing sizeofinvestmentsbyestablishedplayers,risingsmartphonetration,rapidnewusergrowth,andagrowingpreferenceonline shopping,wethinkIndonesiacouldfollowasimilargrow

21、thoverthenextfiveyears.estimatetheIndonesianeCommerce marketwillreachUS$52bnby2023,implyinga32%CAGRand18% penetration.Exhibit 1:We estimate the eCommerce market in Indonesia reached US$13bn in 2018 and is likely to increase to US$52bn in the next five yearsIndonesia eCommerce Market Size, US$ bn6943

22、694333251813469526032% CAGR over the next 5 years706050403020102015e2016e2017e2018e2019e2020e2021e2022e2023e2024e2025e02015e2016e2017e2018e2019e2020e2021e2022e2023e2024e2025eSource: Morgan Stanley Research (e) EstimatesExhibit 2:20182022OldNewOldNeweCommercesales,7.313.026.143.1as%ofretailsales4.4%7

23、.9%11.6%16.8%Ourrevised20182022OldNewOldNeweCommercesales,7.313.026.143.1as%ofretailsales4.4%7.9%11.6%16.8%US$ bnSource: Morgan Stanley Research EstimatesExhibit 3:WeestimateIndonesiaseCommercemarketsizeatUS$13bn,which is8%ofretailsales.Chinawasatthesamepenetrationlevelin2013and hassincegrownata32%C

24、AGRtoreach19%penetrationin2018.We expectIndonesiatofollowasimilargrowthpatterneCommerce as % ofretailsales IndonesiaChinaIndonesia is 5 years behind China interms of penetration levelsIndonesia is 5 years behind China interms of penetration levels25%23%24%21%19%18%17%17%15%14%13%11%12%10%8%8%6%6%4%2

25、%3%25%20%15%10%5%0%2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023eSource: Euromonitor, NBS, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimatesAlphaWiseKey Insights from AlphaWise SurveyAlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchBigger than wethoughtIndonesias eCommerce penetration has doubled in the

26、last two yearsIndonesiaisthelargestandhasbeenthefastest-growingeCommercemarketinASEAN,asperthe2018e-Conomyreportby Google-Temasek.Growingsizeofinvestmentsbyestablishedforeignplayers,risingsmartphoneandInternetpenetration,anda tech-savvyconsumerarethe HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 enablers,allofwhicharemovi

27、ngintherightdirection.Modernbrick-and-mortarretailisstill notablyunderdeveloped,whichamplifiestheopportunityeCommerceasitnotonlytakessharebutalsoacceleratesconsumption.thinkthekeyrisktogrowthisifthesupportingecosystem(logistics/payments/infrastructure/talent)failsto keeppacewiththegrowthinonlineshop

28、ping,oriftheinvestment/fundingenvironmentbecomesunconducive.US$13bnmarketor8%ofretailsales:LackofreliabledataisacommonissuewefaceinASEANconsumer.However,evenwith thatexperience,thevariabilityinvariousestimatesofIndonesiaseCommercemarketsizeisquitestark(fromaslowasUS$4.5bn toashighasUS$19bn).Whileweh

29、aditpeggedatthelowerendofthatrangeasofwenowbelieveittobenotablyhigher2018,basedonnewdatacomingthrough,ourconversationswithleadingindustryplayersandgrowthoverthepastoneyear.Asa result,wealsothinkthatpenetrationlevelsareprobably2-3xhigherat8%ofretailsalesthanthelowsingledigitlevelsassumed inmanyindust

30、ryreports(includingoursin2018).Key insightsNewusergrowthhasbeenadrivingforcebutstillhasplentyofroomtogrow.Thereare195mnsmartphonesubscribersand over110mninternetusersbutonly30mnonlineshoppers.Inoursurvey,twothirdsoftherespondentsstartedshoppingonlinethe past oneyearExistingusersarespendingmore.54%of

31、userssaidthattheironlineshoppingspendinghadincreasedinthelast12andofthese28%saidthatthisspendinghasincreasedbymorethan25%.Interestinglythehighestproportionofsuchusersare from smallercities.Apparel(clothingandshoes)andbeauty&personalcareitemshaveseenthehighestincreaseinonlinespendinginthe12monthsandt

32、hetrendisexpectedtocontinueinthenext12monthsaswellSource: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 4:We estimate the eCommerce market in Indonesia reached US$13bn in 2018 and we expect it to increase to US$52bn in the next five yearsIndonesia eCommerce Market Size, US$ bn69526952433325181

33、39466032% CAGR over the next 5 years7060504030201002015e2016e2017e2018e2019e2020e2021e2022e2023e2024e2025eSource: Morgan Stanley Research (e) EstimatesExhibit 5:eCommerce constitutes 8% of overall retail spend we expect this to reach 18% by 2023Will reach CH level as % of retail sales in 5-6 years20

34、%Will reach CH level as % of retail sales in 5-6 years20%18%19%17%14%12%10%8%6%3%4%25%20%15%10%5%0%2015e2016e2017e2018e2019e2020e2021e2022e2023e2024e2025eSource: Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research (e) EstimatesWeexpectIndonesiatoremainthedominantmarketwithinASEANfor eCommerceSource:Google&Temasek,

35、MorganStanleyResearch.WeuseMorganStanleyResearchestimatesfor IndonesiaandGoogle&TemaseksestimatesforothermarketsIndonesianowhassimilarpenetrationlevelsineCommerceasselect developedmarkets;however,weexpectthistomorethandoubleinthe next fiveyearsSource:Euromonitor,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.ASEANe

36、Commercemarketsizeisbasedon GoogleTemaseke-ConomySEA2018Exhibit 8:Newusergrowth:InoursurveyconductedinOct-18,65%oftheshop- personlystartedshoppingonlineinthelastoneyearSource: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 9:Newusergrowthhasalotmoreupside:With266mnpeople,195mn smartphoneusers,and110mnint

37、ernetusers,butonlineshoppersonly 30mnSource: Euromonitor, Company Data, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 10:Existingusersspendingmore:54%ofuserssaidthattheironlineshop- pingspendinghasincreasedinthelast12months,ofthese28%said thatithasincreasedbymorethan25%Change in total spend online in last 12mExhib

38、it 11:Smallercities(50%Increased 25%Increased Remained theDecreased13%15%7%26%54% increased spending40%Tier 1 (JKT)47%55%47%55%Others (Jogja, Palembang, Makassar, Balikpapan)Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch59%Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 12:ApparelandBPCwerethetopthreecate

39、goriesonwhichusersare spending more.Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 13: and we expect these two categories to continue seeing growth in online spending in the next 12 months% mentioning net increase in online shopping innext 12mClothing & Shoes43%Beauty and personal care16%Grocerie

40、s9%Health & wellness4%Home Furnishings3%Consumer electronics1%Mobile Devices0%Baby products & toys-6%Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearchStill anybodys gameAllthetopplayershaveareasonableshareinthemarketwiththetop3inrange of 20-30% each, weestimateseenoclearwinnersintheIndonesianeCommercelandscape

41、asyet.FourplayerscontrolmostoftheformaleCommerce sales(Lazada,Shopee,TokopediaandBukalapak).WhilewedonthaveofficialGMVnumbersfromanyoftheplayers,weShopee,TokopediaandLazadahave20-30%marketshareeach,whileweestimateBukalapakisinthelowteens(basedon companydisclosures,mediareportsandourconversationswith

42、industryplayers).Key insightsLazada,pioneerofeCommerceinASEAN,isstillthemostpreferred,asperoursurvey:WhileShopeehasbeengaining sharesince2016,Lazadawasratedasthemostpreferredwebsiteinoursurvey(39%ofrespondents).Italsohadthehighestrateas80%oftherespondentshadshoppedonLazadainthe12monthstoOctober2018.

43、Interestingly,Lazadahadhighusage ratesacrosscategoriesandgenders.Acashondeliveryoptionwasoneofthekeydriversofthepreference.Shopeewasthesecondmostpreferredwebsite(28%ofrespondents)butwas#1insmallercities,asperoursurvey: WhileShopeewas#2overallintermsofusageandpreference,itwasthemostpreferredonlinesho

44、ppingwebsiteinsmaller(15 categories. Regional platform across major ASEAN countries. Provides CoD in Indonesia for transactionsRp5mn.Primarily C2C Marketplace model with a regionalUS$1.1bninDec-18from SoftBank andAlibaba.According toTechCrunch, the deal values the com- pany at US$7bn US$50mn Series

45、DinJan-19. Became Indonesiasfourthunicorn, after this funding round US$2bn by Alibaba in March 2018, which takes Alibabas total investment in Lazada toUS$4bnIPO in 2017 raisedShopee2015Tencent owns 30% in parentcompanySEALtd.JD.id2017Subsidiary ofGlobalDigitalNiaga(GDN),platformTaiwanandIndonesiaare

46、itslargestmar- ketsJD is a B2C marketplace in Indonesia serves in 14 categories and operates own logistic company calledJD.idexpressdelivery.JD.idprovidesCODfor acrossIndonesiaortransactionsRp100mnB2C marketplace across 15 categories. In 2018,US$884mn. Raised US$575mn in Jul-18 in con- vertible note

47、s offeringNABlibli2011whichhasDjarumas keystakeholderBlibli acquired T to expand itsofferings totravel andentertainment.Source: Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 15:Lazada was still cited as the most preferred site in our AlphaWise survey followed by ShopeeMost Preferred Website for Online Shopping39%2

48、8%39%28%8%8%7%3%2%1%Go-jek / GoFoodBukalapakGrabFoodJD0%10%20%30%40%50%Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 16:CashonDeliveryandawiderangeofproductsmadeLazadathepre- ferredchoicefor39%ofrespondentsSource: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchShopee was the most preferred online shopping we

49、bsite in smaller cities (2mn population)Most preferred website for online shopping insmaller citiesFree&fastdeliverypushedShopeeaheadofTokopediainoursurvey as the preferredwebsite24%17%Go-jek / Go Food24%17%Go-jek / Go FoodTokopedia7%Grab Food5%Bukalapak5%Blibli2%36%Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley

50、 ResearchSource: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 19:Most preferred website by age group & genderAGEGENDER18 30 years31 40 years41+ yearsMaleFemaleLazada37%40%42%38%40%Shopee30%25%29%20%36%Tokopedia9%9%4%11%5%Go-jek / Go Food8%9%9%9%7%Bukalapak7%7%7%9%4%Grab Food4%3%3%4%3%Blibli2%3%2%3%2%Ot

51、hers3%4%4%6%3%Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchAwareness & Usage: The top 4 eCommerce players score high on awareness but conversion was surprisingly lower 50% for Tokopedia and BukalapakSource: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchWhileLazadaseemstohaveabalanceduserbasebetweenmalesand females

52、,morewomenhaveshoppedonShopeewhileTokopediahad more maleshoppersSource: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 22:Usage:WhileLazadawasthemostcitedwebsiteusedinthelast12months,Shopeewasequallypopularinsmaller cities.TokopediausersappeartobenotablyskewedinfavourofJakartaWhich websites have you shop

53、ped from in the last 12m?8780816665 6272 7164Lazada Shopee4836394238 34Tokopedia BukalapakOverallJKTTier2(Surabaya, Bandung,Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchOthers (Jogja, Palembang, Makassar, Balikpapan)Exhibit 23:Lazada shoppers tend to use the website not just for electronics, but also g

54、roceries, beauty & personal care (BPC) products and baby products. BPC and Baby products were also the most shopped products on Shopee sonal careelectronicsDEVICESingsnessLazada67%85%79%71%sonal careelectronicsDEVICESingsnessLazada67%85%79%71%81%85%66%76%Shopee52%76%67%54%63%76%48%0%Tokopedia32%44%3

55、6%42%53%41%32%51%Bukalapak23%33%30%45%39%33%24%52%Blibli11%16%16%7%19%19%12%15%D3%8%6%5%7%2%3%8%Zalora3%6%Elevenia2%5%1%3%5%5%2%9%Health well-Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearcheCommerceisbeingshopping behaviourOnline shopping has modified purchasing patterns and reveals changing consumer Onl

56、ine shopping has modified purchasing patterns and reveals changing consumer prioritiesMajorityoftherespondentsinoursurveybelievethatonlineshoppingwillbecometheirmainmethodofshoppingovertime.sixpercentsaidthattheyshoponlineatleastonceamonth.Broadly,peoplefromsmallercitiesandtheyoungeragebracket(18- 3

57、0years)tendtoshopmorefrequentlyandhaveseentheironlinespendingincreaseinthelast12months.Key insightsSpeedoverprice:Interestingly,thevalue-consciousIndonesianconsumeriswillingtopayfastdelivery,whichwasnumberonereasonawebsitebeingtheirpreferredchoice.Assortmentwassecondandoffers/priceswasthird.Mobilefi

58、rst,apparelfirst:Indonesiaisamobile-firstnationwiththemajorityofinternettrafficoriginatingfrommobiledevices insteadofdesktops.OursurveyshowedthatIndonesiaalsoappearstobeanapparel-firstmarketwith93%ofrespondentsshopped online clothing & shoes compared to 16-25% mobile phones and consumer electronics,

59、 which is typically the dominantcategoryintheearlystagesofeCommercedevelopment.Fiftypercentcitedapparelasthemostfrequentlyshopped categoryonline,morethan2xthenextcategory.Exhibit 24: Intermsofcategory,93%ofuserspurchasedclothingandshoesonline inthelast12monthsSource: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Resear

60、chExhibit 25:Morethanhalfofusersdontpurchaseelectronicsandmobiledevices online,whichistypicallythemostpopularcategoryintheearlystages of eCommercedevelopmentSource: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 26:Frequencyofonlineshoppingforpreparedfoodandgrocerieswashigherthanothercategories,with75%of