印尼房地產(chǎn)：1009個(gè)印尼人告訴我們什 么是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)

1、GlobalResearch8 February2019Indonesia Real EstateUBSEv.Labinside:whatare1,009Indonesians tellingusaboutthepropertymarket?(Erratum)Animal spirits driving price optimism and buying intentionSince the October 2018 trough, developers valuations have risen 28% due to an expectedupcycle.ButapresalesdipinQ

2、418hasraisedconcernsthatdemandmaybe structurallyweak.TherecentUBSEvidenceLabSurveyonhousingdemandindicates rising price expectations, better affordability, and self-use housing needs as key strengths behind demand, suggesting a solid outlook. Of the respondents, 13% may buy a house earlier than plan

3、ned on expectations of mortgage rate rise, and positive housing policies and price trends post-election. Optimism is high, with 92% of respondentsexpectingatleasta10%priceincreaseinthenext12months.Weexpect this to boost demand and end users to become a driving force; we forecast 10% presalesgrowthin

4、2020from4%in2019E.Thesectorispricinginimpliedpresales13- 23% below our estimates. We expect our top sector picks Pakuwon and Ciputra to continue widening the valuation gap with peers.Supply-demand mismatch could narrow; buyers budget improvingOftherespondents,79%arebudgetingforanunderRp1bnASPpropert

5、y,higherthan the developers 2018 44% presales mix with similar ASP. We attribute the Q418 presalesdipchieflytothismismatch.Developersfocuswouldbeskewedtowardsthis demand in 2019. While 4% of respondents had bought a property for Rp1-3bn in the past,affordabilityisrisingwith18%nowearmarkingapropertyw

6、ithsimilarASP.New and second hand property ASP gap and SOE vs foreign developersThe fall in the percentage of respondents buying a second hand property from 8% in 2015 to 1% in 2018 indicates a narrowing ASP gap with new property. The survey suggestsSOEdevelopersarebetterknownforaffordableASPandsoar

7、eadifferent market segment from domestic private developers, while developers from China are attemptingtolocalisetheirbrandtogainmarketshare,butweseenothreatyet.Lower 2019-21 presales estimates 6-16%; Pakuwon and Ciputra our top picks WeexpectastablerupiahandaneasingpolicyrateinH220toinduceinvestorb

8、uyers intothemarket,aspropertyyieldwouldbeattractive;butuntilthentherecoverycould begradual.Pakuwonisourtoppickasitisleastexposedtogrowthrisk(50%RNAVis frompresalescomparedwithpeers75%)withgoodROEvisibility.WelikeCiputrafor its broad area coverage enabling it to focus on the performing segments and

9、avoid overlycompetitiveones.Thesurveysuggestsinvestorbuyersmaybuypropertyahead of the election due to an expected ASP increasepost-election.Erratum: This replaces an earlier note to clarify that PWON and LPKR use adjusted EPS in accordance with Indonesian reporting standards (not UBS headline EPS).F

10、igure 1: Indonesia real estatevaluation summaryReal EstateIndonesiaEquitiesIgor PutraReal EstateIndonesiaEquities HYPERLINK mailto:igor.putra +62-21-25547033Joshua Tanja, CFA HYPERLINK mailto:joshua.tanja +62-21-25547030ReutersShare price PricetargetMkt cap EPSgrowth(YoY) PE(x) P/BV(x) ROEYieldcodeR

11、ating(Rp)(Rp)(US$ bn2019E2020E2019E2020E2019E2020E2019E2020E2019ECiputra DevtCTRA.JKBuy9501,3401.37.7%23.0%1.17.5%8.6%0.6%Pakuwon JatiPWON.JKBuy6908602.417.6%9.1%13.5*12.4*%18.3%1.3%Bumi SerpongBSDE.JKBuy1,4101,7601.942.6%32.0%15.611.81.00.96.5%8.1%0.5%Lippo KarawaciLPKR.JKSell3002500.521.4%23.4%9.1

12、*7.4*%4.8%1.6%Note:Abovedataasat7February2019.*UsingadjustedEPSforPWONandLPKRinaccordancewithIndonesianreportingstandards(notUBSheadlineEPS). Source: Bloomberg, UBSestimates HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyPTUBSSekuritasIndonesia. ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDRE

13、QUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGIN ONPAGE52. UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in maki

14、ng their investment decision.ContentsOURTHESISINPICTURES4PIVOTALQUESTIONS5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Q:Whenandhowstrongwillapresalesrecoverybe?5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Whythissurveymattersininvestmentdecisions5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Propertysalesanddemandprospectsnotstructurallyweak8 HYPERLINK l _T

15、OC_250015 Whichdemandtypewoulddrivepresales?11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Supply-demand mismatch explains softpresalesrecovery13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Willinvestorbuyersreturntothepropertymarket?14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 AnimalspiritsbehindIndonesianspropertypurchase17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Sentim

16、entonelectionandpropertytax20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 43% of respondents plan to buy propertyinH21922 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Istherisingpreferenceforapartmentsrelevant?26PIVOTALQUESTIONS27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Q:Whatwillbetheimpactoftherelaxationinhousingpolicy?27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Willtig

17、hteningmonetarypolicyslowdemand?27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Buyersowning2propertyunitscouldreleasepent-updemand30PIVOTALQUESTIONS31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Q:HowwillTransit-OrientedDevelopment(TOD)impacttheIndonesianreal estatemarket?31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 HasbuyerpreferenceshiftedtowardsTOD?31 H

18、YPERLINK l _TOC_250003 TODtodrawinvestorbuyersdemand35 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 DebunkingfearsofTODcompetitionwithSOE&Chinafirms36 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Where can SOE/foreign developersgainshare?39WHATSPRICEDIN?42 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Reverse-engineering RNAV from currentstockprice42Igor Putra H

19、YPERLINK mailto:igor.putra +62-21-25547033Joshua Tanja, CFA HYPERLINK mailto:joshua.tanja +62-21-25547030Indonesia Real EstateUBS Research THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking and whats where inthis report HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 OURTHESISINPICTURESMOSTFAVOUREDLEAST FAVOUREDPakuwon Jati,CiputraDevelopm

20、entLippoKarawaciPIVOTALQUESTIONSQ: When and how strong will a presales recoverybe?We expect presales growth to recover 10% YoY in 2020E, after growing 4% in 2019E, led by pent- up demand, a continuing low mortgage rate, better purchasing power, and resilience of end-user demand.Asthecurrentweakdeman

21、disnotstructuralandinvestorbuyersareabsent,therecovery has been gradual. We expect demand to rebound and remain structurally solid due to optimism aboutpropertyprices,increasingownneedsforalivingspace,andbetteraffordability.Developers willbeskewedtowardsfirst-timebuyers,inourview. HYPERLINK l _bookm

22、ark2 Q: What will be the impact of the relaxation in housing policy?We expect the new policy to spark pent-up demand from end-users and investors as it will: cut the timesavingsondown-payment(onhigherloantovalue)mitigatingrisinginterestrates;createscope forhigheroff-planmortgagedemand;andimprovebuye

23、rsaffordability(onlowerASP).Developers would have better working capital cash flow, resulting in lower leverage or more scope to cut ASP. Thiswoulddrivepresales,assetchurn,andROE.Bettercashflowwouldleadtofasterlandbanking, whichisNAV-accretive. HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Q: How will Transit-Oriented Dev

24、elopment (TOD) impact Indonesian real estate?TOD will accelerate urbanisation, spark property demand with more affordable products, and increasethegrossdevelopmentvalueofproperty,inourview.Withashiftingcompetitivelandscape in the long term (as TOD boosts apartment supply), the winners would be devel

25、opers focused on townships (3-6km transit radius) and shophouses/malls/landbank within 3km. Those focused on offices(3km),apartmentswithRp1.5bnpricepoints,andapartmentswith3km) wouldbenefitless. HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 UBSVIEWPositive outlook. We expect demand to remain structurally solid due to opti

26、mism about property prices, increasing demand for owned living space, and better affordability. A better operating environmentfordeveloperswouldprovideroomtocapturethismomentum.Therecentrelaxationof thehousingpolicyshouldboostpropertydemandandallowdeveloperstoaccelerateassetchurn.In the longer term,

27、 the new theme TOD would drive urbanisation, property demand and value. We forecast 4-10% YoY presales growth in 2019-20, with improving ROE tofollow.EVIDENCEPresalesin2018grew4%YoY,thefirstpositivegrowthsince2016.TheUBSEvidenceLabsuggests the presidential election and tax scrutiny concerns are unli

28、kely to dampen demand, but rupiahandotherinvestmentsmightbeaffected.Expectationsofhigherpropertypricesandself-need to have a living place are key motivations to buy property. Budgets and ASPs to buy property are higher for intended purchases than they were in pastpurchases.WHATSPRICEDIN?Thesectorist

29、radingatRp13.9trnimpliedpresalescomparedwithourRp16-18trnforecastsfor2019- 20(2018:Rp16trn).Themarketisbearishonthepresidentialelection,monetarytightening,concerns aboutstructuraldemandweakness,andrupiahvolatility. HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Sectors RNAV discount to narrow on relaxation policyIs the sec

30、tors 12m forward P/BV bottoming out? Yes, itis2.5200(20)(40)(60)Aug-09Dec-11Apr-14Aug-162.01.51.00.5Jun-08Mar-10Dec-11Sep-13Jun-15Mar-17Dec-18AverageSTD+1STD+2STD-1STD-2 AverageSTD+1STD+2STD-1STD -2Source: Bloomberg, UBS estimatesIndonesiaRealEstateUBSResearchOURTHESISINPICTURES HYPERLINK l _bookmar

31、k0 return 68% positive correlation8%68% positive correlation7%6%5%80%4%3%20%2%0%1%-20%20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720180%-40%2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018The response to the UBS Evidence Lab survey question posed to 1,009 Indonesians on when they bought a pr

32、operty correlates positively with developers presalesUBSsurvey:whendidyoubuyproperty DeveloperspresalesYoY(RHS)8%7%8%7%13%9%35%37%33%47%10%9%33%43%80%60%40%20%0%100%80%TotalFirsttimebuyersExperiencedHavent shortlisted, plan to buy 7-12 months(H219)9%5%51%Havent shortlisted, plan to buy 3-6 months (Q

33、219) Havent shortlisted, plan to buy 1-2 months (Q119) Shortlisted, finishing paperwork in 1-2 months (Q119) Shortlisted, finishing paperwork in 10%Will increase by1-10%Will remainthesameWilldecreaseAnimal spirits (the fear of missing out on a good deal when prices are rising), the driver of propert

34、y purchases80%4%18%80%4%18%18%60%40%91%79%77%20%0%Improving affordability shows higher budgets and intention to buy property relative to past purchasesAverage purchase price Budget range for the Average selling pricerange intended purchaseperception for the intended propertyRp1bnRp1-3bnRp3-5bnSource

35、s for exhibits above: Company data, UBS Evidence Lab, UBS ResearchIndonesiaRealEstateUBSResearchPIVOTALQUESTIONS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 return Q: When and how strong will a presales recovery be?UBS VIEWWe expect presales growth to recover 10% YoY in 2020, up from 4% in 2019, led by pent-up demand, c

36、ontinuing low mortgage rates, better purchasing power, and resilient end-user demand. As the current weak demandisnotstructuralandinvestorbuyersareabsent,therecoveryhasbeen gradual.DemandcouldreboundfromH219assuggestedbytheresponsesto when to buy in the UBS Lab and developers pipelines. We expect de

37、mand to remain structurally solid due to optimism about property prices, the growing need for owned living space, and better affordability. Developerswillbeskewedtowardsfirst-timebuyersforpresalesgrowthsales, as experienced home buyer demand remains weak. This could change; however, if the macroecon

38、omic situation improves, the rupiah stabilises and the policy rate eases. This would drive confidence and widen the property investment yield gap with other investmentinstruments.EVIDENCEQ418 rolling presales were up 4% YoY in Q418 (2018: the 4% YoY growth was the first positive growth since 2016).

39、The UBS Evidence Lab suggestspresidentialelectionandtaxscrutinyconcernsareunlikelytodampen demand, but rupiah and other attractive investment yields might be affected. Expectationsofhigherpropertypricesandtheneedtoownaplacetoliveare key motivations to buy property. Budgets and ASPs for intended prop

40、erty purchases are higher than in pastpurchases.WHATS PRICED IN?Webelievecurrentpropertysharepricesassumepresaleswillcontractfurther in 2019-20, as the sector is trading at Rp13.9trn implied presales compared with our Rp16-18trn forecasts over 2019-20 and the Rp16trn in 2018. The market is bearish o

41、n the presidential election, monetary tightening, fears of structural demand weakness, and rupiahvolatility.Why this survey matters in investment decisionsThereisastrongcorrelationbetweentheUBSEvidenceLabresponseson when respondents will buy property and developers presales growth. We think the surv

42、ey is representative of Indonesianbuyers.Figure 2: Strong correlation between UBS survey vs presales8%140%68% positive correlation7%120%68% positive correlation6%100%5%80%60%4%40%3%20%2%0%1%-20%20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720180%-40%200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

43、2018UBSsurvey:whendidyoubuypropertyDevelopers presales YoY(RHS)Note:developersincludefivemajordevelopers,CiputraDevelopment,PakuwonJati,BumiSerpongDamai,Lippo Karawaci, and Summarecon Agung. Source: Company data, UBS EvidenceLabWeusedatafromaUBSEvidenceLabsurveyofface-to-faceinterviewswith1,009 Indo

44、nesiansfrom27September2018to5November2018,togetasenseofwhat will happen on the ground and perceptions of the Indonesia property market in thenext12months.TheUBSEvidenceLabmethodologyincludesstreetintercepts, snowballing/referrals,andcomputer-assistedpersonalinterviews(CAPI).We narrow our respondent

45、criteria specifically to male (65% of respondents) and female who are property purchase intenders in the next 12 months. The respondentsaremainorpartialdecisionmakersandactiveconsiderers.Theyhave visitedatleasttwopropertiesinthepastsixmonths,areaged20-54,intheSocio- Economic Classification (SEC) A,

46、B, andC1.It appears that the market does not fully recognise the demand behaviour and intention of property intenders in Indonesia, possibly resulting in the recent volatility in Indonesias property stocks, especially with the approaching 2019 presidentialelectioninAprilthatmayleadtofurtherdemandsen

47、timentvolatility.It is imperative to understand the current views and outlook for the propertymarket of the Indonesian property intenders. In this report, and with the help of UBS Evidence Lab data, we attempt to answer the following questions that are frequently debated among investors:Whyhasthepre

48、salesrecoverybeengradual,despitetheeasingpolicy?Is property demand structurallyweak?Whichtypeofdemand(bySEC,age,experience)isweak/strong?Whatisdrivingandhinderingpropertyintenderspropertypurchases?When, where, and would demand recover?Howwouldtaxconcerns,theelection,andrupiahaffectbuyingdecisions?Ar

49、etheintendersalreadyshowingrisingpreference/attitudetowardsTransit- Oriented Development (TOD) propertyproduct?Howwouldintendersperceiveanddifferentiatedevelopersbrand?TheUBSLabcomprises39%SECArespondentsandfollowedby SEC B (32%) and SEC C1 (29%) which are essential to recognize the demand behaviour

50、andintentionfromtherespectiveupper,middle,andlowendsegment. Wealsostudymillennialsgeneration(Age20-34;32%ofrespondents)behaviour and intention as they are the future demand driver forproperty.Respondents are purchase intenders in the next 12 months, decision makers, active considerers, and have at l

51、east visited 2 properties in the past 6 monthsThe survey will help shed light on eight frequently asked questionsFigure 3: Respondents by Socio- Economic ClassificationsFigure 4: RespondentsbyageFigure 5: Respondents bypropertyownership1SEC1SECB32%SEC A (A1, 39%Age 45-5421%Age 35-4447%Age 3432%Rest

52、of the Non-owner/n on- renterRenter 36%Owner (main/ partial) 43%Source: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabExperienced buyers are those that have bought at least one property in the past, andtheyhavetheclosestcharacteristicsofinvestorbuyerswhilefirst-timebuyers are generally

53、end-users.The survey respondents live in nine major cities where the major developers operate.BasedonthepopulationdensityandGDPpercapitaintherespectivecity, we label Jakarta and Surabaya as Tier 1 cities; Tangerang (Pasar Kemis, Alam Sutera, Summarecon Serpong, and BSD City), Bekasi, Bandung, and Ma

54、kassar (ex- Java Sulawesi island) as Tier 2 cities; and the remaining, Bogor, Semarang, and Depok, as Tier 3 cities.Figure 6: Respondents by buyer experienceFigure 7: RespondentsbygenderFigure 8: Respondents by citywherethey resideced 49%First time 51%Female 35%Makassar22%18%Makassar22%18%13%Semaran

55、g10%Bandung10%Bekasi10%Tangerang10%Bogor3%Depok3%Source: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLab1131311313101010941949298121213410785913111082118131110551610991311938137123313101094413109123119347913112519125922241923202325222325191816221626141618181917TotalSECAA2)SECBSECC1Age20-

56、34Age35-44Age45-54First hand Second hand FirsttimeExperiencedOverallClassAgePurchasetendencyExperience100806040200JakartaT1SurabayaT1TangerangT2BekasiT2BandungT2MakassarT2BogorT3DepokT3Semarang Source: UBS Evidence LabProperty sales and demand prospects not structurally weakWithdemandremainingsolid,

57、weexpectdeveloperspresalestogrow4%YoYin 2019 and 10% in 2020. Demand will be H219-loaded after presidential election completion and based on developerspipeline.Afteraseriesoffallsinannualorganicpresales(ex.one-timesaleseg,blocktrade, large commercial land plot sales) in the past few years, we think

58、growth has normalised at 4% YoY in 2018. This is the first-time positive growth for presales sincethe2016trough(-28%YoY),andsuggestingademandrecovery.For the upcoming Q1 quarterly presales updates, we expect rolling presales to minimisethechoppyquarterlytrendcausedbydevelopersmovingtheirlaunching sc

59、hedules. However, Q4 rolling presales continued trending up gradually, suggesting a recovery that we expect could persist, as we think demand is not structurallyweakdespitethe175bpratehikeandrupiahvolatilityin2018.We expect 4-10% YoY growth in 2019-20E after 4% YoY growth in 2018Figure10:First-timep

60、ositivegrowthin2018since2016Figure 11: Q4 rolling presales trending upwardgraduallyPresales (Rp tn)30140%Presales (Rp tn)120%25100%2080%60%1540%1020%100%5-20%200520062007200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E70%Presales (Rp tn)60%Presales (Rp tn)50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-