金融分析組第二屆光華管理學院案例大賽

京能清潔能源/r/n是/r/n最大的燃氣熱電/r/n發(fā)/r/n及/r/n領先的風電運營商，具有多元化的/r/n清/r/n大/r/n氣/r/n陸自/r/n1970/r/n年代末期，逐/r/n步/r/n開放、發(fā)/r/n展經(jīng)濟。/r/n隨著工業(yè)活動迅速增多、/r/n人們生活/r/n逐步現(xiàn)代化，相應/r/n的環(huán)境保護/r/n意識/r/n及/r/n卻非/r/n常薄弱，導/r/n致污染/r/n現(xiàn)象漸趨嚴/r/n重。其中，空氣污染是影響面最廣，個人或地區(qū)/r/n卻/r/n為力、只能接受的污染形式。/r/n2014/r/n年/r/n4/r/n月/r/n11/r/n日/r/n，/r/n來/r/n自/r/n市/r/n、/r/n國/r/n家/r/n總/r/n隊/r/n的/r/n分/r/n析/r/n顯/r/n示/r/n，/r/n京/r/n放影響/r/n最明顯/r/n；/r/n工/r/n業(yè)污染最突/r/n出；河北燃/r/n煤影響/r/n最嚴重。在空氣/r/n污染物中，PM2.5/r/n38927/r/n88.8%，/r/n遠遠高/r/n于/r/n的25.4%/r/n和/r/n的59.6%。煤炭消費排放出大量二氧化硫，對大氣環(huán)境造成很大影響，2012/r/n80.8%。/r/n河北工業(yè)高耗能行業(yè)工業(yè)/r/n總產(chǎn)值所/r/n占/r/n為/r/n51.6%；綜合能耗占比達/r/n90.8%。從/r/n能/r/n耗增幅看，2013/r/n年/r/n，/r/n工業(yè)高耗能行業(yè)綜合能耗同比下降/r/n2.1%；河北工業(yè)高耗能行/r/n48%。化石能源使用的不斷增加，加重了對大氣環(huán)境的污染。/r/n建/r/n議，一方面，嚴/r/n格限制高耗/r/n能行業(yè)發(fā)展，逐步/r/n淘汰、疏/r/n解/r/n高耗能/r/n行業(yè)；/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n今日/r/n空氣質(zhì)/r/n量/r/n的/r/n10/r/n個城/r/n清/r/n潔/r/n能/r/n源/r/n發(fā)/r/n展/r/n政/r/n/r/n2012/r/n10/r/n24/r/n(2012)/r/n大力發(fā)展新能源/r/n(1263.41,-4.150,-0.33%)和可再生能源，是推進能源多元清潔發(fā)展、培/r/n育/r/n性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的重/r/n要/r/n舉措/r/n也是/r/n護生態(tài)環(huán)境/r/n應對氣候變化/r/n實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的迫切需要。/r/n根/r/n據(jù)《/r/n中/r/n民/r/n國民經(jīng)濟/r/n和社會/r/n發(fā)/r/n展第十/r/n二個五年規(guī)/r/n劃綱要/r/n》/r/n目/r/n標：/r/n到/r/n2015/r/n年/r/n中國非化石能源占一次能源消/r/n費/r/n達到/r/n11.4%，/r/n單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值能源消/r/n耗比/r/n2010/r/n年降低/r/n16%，/r/n單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總/r/n值/r/n排放比/r/n2010/r/n年降低/r/n17%。到/r/n2020/r/n年/r/n非化石能源占一次能源消/r/n費/r/n將達到/r/n15%左右。/r/n積極有序發(fā)展水電和風能/r/n、/r/n能等可再生能源。/r/n國家發(fā)改委能/r/n源/r/n在/r/n召開的/r/n第十二屆中國國際煤炭大會上表示，/r/n炭在能源消費總量中/r/n的/r/n將降低，而相應的清潔能源/r/n的/r/n將增加。/r/n2014/r/n年/r/n3/r/n月/r/n21/r/n日/r/n/r/n主/r/n持/r/n召/r/n開/r/n節(jié)/r/n能/r/n減/r/n排/r/n及/r/n應/r/n對/r/n氣/r/n候/r/n變/r/n化/r/n工/r/n作/r/n會/r/n議/r/n，/r/n推/r/n動/r/n《/r/n，/r/n促/r/n進/r/n節(jié)/r/n能/r/n減/r/n排/r/n和/r/n低/r/n碳/r/n發(fā)/r/n展/r/n；/r/n會/r/n議/r/n原/r/n則/r/n通/r/n過《2014-2015年節(jié)/r/n/r/n了我國應對氣候變化的行動方案表示，/r/n推廣分布式能源，發(fā)展智能電網(wǎng)，逐步把煤/r/n炭/r/n降下來。/r/n2013/r/n裝/r/n機/r/n16.1GW，比2012/r/n年/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增長23.84%，/r/n國/r/n家/r/n能/r/n源/r/n局/r/n在/r/n年/r/n初/r/n的/r/n工/r/n作/r/n會/r/n議/r/n上/r/n確/r/n立/r/n了/r/n2014/r/n年/r/n的/r/n新/r/n增/r/n裝/r/n機/r/n規(guī)/r/n模/r/n為/r/n18GW，比2013年增長11.8%。按照“/r/n十/r/n二/r/n五/r/n”/r/n規(guī)/r/n劃/r/n，到2015/r/n年/r/n我/r/n100GW，/r/n20%左右的需/r/n選取京能清/r/n潔/r/n能源作為/r/n標/r/n的公司進/r/n行/r/n估值/r/nl/r/n/r/n估值/r/n模/r/n型由/r/n于/r/n要求只提交/r/no/r/nd/r/n/r/n文檔故在估值部分截圖展示。/r/n—在可預見的未來，天然氣發(fā)電具有穩(wěn)定的回/r/n報率：燃氣發(fā)電/r/n在/r/n制定的基準價/r/n—公司燃氣發(fā)電業(yè)務迎來爆發(fā)式增長。燃氣發(fā)/r/n電受/r/n到/r/n市/r/n的大力支持，享有/r/n。/r/n2013~2014/r/n年公司京西項目、高安屯項目和未來科技城項目將先后投產(chǎn)，燃氣發(fā)電裝機增長將拉動利潤增長，/r/n同時“走出去”遠/r/n期/r/n提供了可持續(xù)增長空間。/r/n2012/r/n/r/n市場份額占比/r/n2.4%/r/n。/r/n2012/r/n/r/n年受全行業(yè)/r/n限/r/n響，/r/n利用小時數(shù)僅為/r/n1,816/r/n/r/n小時。/r/n2013/r/n/r/n年/r/n2000/r/n/r/n小時。/r/n—多元化發(fā)展的清潔能/r/n源/r/n。公司堅持“做/r/n大氣電、做強風電、做多水電、做/r/n優(yōu)/r/n給予買入/r/n目/r/n標/r/n價/r/n/r/n4.20/r/n，/r/n較/r/n現(xiàn)/r/n價/r/n有/r/n/r/n17%/r/n的/r/n上/r/n升/r/n空/r/n間/r/n目/r/n標/r/n價/r/n約/r/n相/r/n當/r/n于/r/n/r/n2013-/r/nPE/r/n20.9/r/n、/r/n10.7/r/n、/r/n9.7/r/n/r/n催化劑：國家出臺治/r/n理/r/n和有利于清潔能源發(fā)展的行業(yè)政策/r/n/r/n公司基本情/r/n /r/n/r/n基本資/r/n /r/n/r/n公司發(fā)展歷/r/n /r/n/r/n公司股權(quán)結(jié)/r/n /r/n/r/n管理/r/n /r/n/r/n公司歷史經(jīng)營情/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n燃氣發(fā)電業(yè)/r/n /r/n/r/n行業(yè)概/r/n /r/n需/r/n /r/n供/r/n /r/n補/r/n /r/n/r/n風電業(yè)/r/n /r/n/r/n行業(yè)概/r/n /r/n/r/n公司業(yè)務情/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n正確/r/n的/r/n選/r/n /r/n2013/r/n年京能旗下的風電項/r/n /r/n出色的項目安排/r/n /r/n風機供應穩(wěn)/r/n /r/n/r/n公司治/r/n /r/n/r/n多元化融/r/n資/r/n改/r/n善財務結(jié)/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n水電項目快速增/r/n /r/n/r/n燃氣發(fā)/r/n /r/n/r/n燃氣發(fā)/r/n /r/n/r/n風/r/n /r/n/r/n聯(lián)營公/r/n /r/n/r/n水力發(fā)/r/n /r/n/r/n其他收入（補貼/r/n與/r/n /r/n補/r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n估/r/n /r/n/r/n損益/r/n /r/n收/r/n /r/n毛/r/n /r/n費/r/n /r/n /r/n財務費/r/n /r/n聯(lián)營公/r/n /r/n稅/r/n /r/nAttribute/r/nto/r/n /r/n/r/n資產(chǎn)負債/r/n /r/n資/r/n /r/n負/r/n /r/nWorking/r/n/r/nCapital/r/n/r/n X/r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n現(xiàn)金流量/r/n /r/n經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金/r/n /r/n投資現(xiàn)金/r/n /r/n融資現(xiàn)金/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n燃氣部/r/n /r/n風電部/r/n /r/n水電部/r/n /r/n其他（光伏等/r/n /r/nDCF/r/n/r/n估值結(jié)/r/n /r/nP/E/r/n/r/n估/r/n /r/n/r/n圖/r/n /r/n基/r/n本/r/n資/r/n京/r/n能清潔/r/n能源電/r/n力 /r/n（/r/n簡/r/n稱/r/n“/r/n京能/r/n清/r/n潔/r/n能/r/n源/r/n”/r/n或/r/n“/r/n京/r/n能/r/n”/r/n，/r/n代/r/n碼/r/n：/r/n0579.HK/r/n，/r/n2011/r/n年/r/n12/r/n月/r/n22/r/n日在港交所上市）/r/n是/r/n最大的燃氣電力供貨商及/r/n中國/r/n根/r/n據(jù)/r/n電力行業(yè)/r/n/r/n之統(tǒng)計，按/r/n2008-2012/r/n/r/n年的控股裝機容量計算，/r/n京能/r/n是/r/n最大的燃氣發(fā)；按中國水電報告，截至/r/n2011/r/n/r/n9/r/n/r/n月末，京能控股的風電裝機容量/r/n占/r/n風電裝機容量的/r/n3.12%/r/n，/r/n第/r/n七大風電運營商。/r/n燃氣/r/n發(fā)/r/n電/r/n及/r/n供/r/n熱：/r/n京能/r/n是/r/n地區(qū)最大的燃氣/r/n發(fā)電及供熱運營商。公司當前管理/r/n和/r/n運營著/r/n3/r/n個燃氣電廠，/r/n分別/r/n是/r/n宮燃氣電廠，/r/n京豐燃氣電廠和京橋燃氣電廠。/r/n截/r/n2013/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n2,028/r/n/r/n兆瓦。/r/n風力/r/n發(fā)/r/n電/r/n：/r/n京能/r/n還/r/n領先的風力發(fā)電運營商。公司的風電場主要位于中國風力資源較為豐富的內(nèi)蒙/r/n、/r/n及/r/n等地區(qū)，同/r/n時公司還/r/n是/r/n地區(qū)唯一的風電運營/r/n2013/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n1,600.25/r/n/r/n兆瓦。/r/n水力/r/n發(fā)/r/n電/r/n及/r/n其/r/n他/r/n：/r/n京/r/n能/r/n的/r/n中/r/n小/r/n型/r/n水/r/n電/r/n項/r/n目/r/n主/r/n要分/r/n布/r/n西/r/n南/r/n地/r/n區(qū)/r/n,/r/n光/r/n伏/r/n發(fā)/r/n電/r/n2013/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n368.89/r/n/r/n50/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n發(fā)/r/n展/r/n歷/r/n于/r/n內(nèi)/r/n完/r/n成首個風/r/n電場建/r/n圖表/r/n/r/n /r/n公/r/n司/r/n股/r/n權(quán)/r/n結(jié)/r/n2012/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n17/r/n/r/n61.50/r/n/r/n45.12/r/n/r/n億股，流通/r/nH/r/n/r/n16.38/r/n/r/n2013/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n30/r/n/r/n日/r/n,/r/n京能清潔能源的股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)如下圖所示/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n控股股東/r/n:/r/n能源投資/r/n(/r/n)/r/n(/r/n簡稱“京/r/n能/r/n”/r/n)/r/n成立于/r/n2004/r/n/r/n年，/r/n是/r/n市人/r/n民/r/n出資設立的國有獨資公司/r/n資本/r/n130/r/n/r/n億元/r/n,/r/n國有資本經(jīng)營管理/r/n中/r/n心擁有京/r/n能/r/n/r/n100%/r/n股權(quán)/r/n作/r/n為/r/n市/r/n電/r/n力能源的投資建設主體/r/n京/r/n能/r/n經(jīng)營和管/r/n理/r/n市/r/n電力、節(jié)能等相關的投資/r/n基金，擔負著首都電力、熱力等能源/r/n管/r/n理/r/n4/r/n/r/n /r/n圖表/r/n /r/n附：/r/n各/r/n位/r/n董/r/n事/r/n的/r/n陸/r/n先生，/r/n54/r/n/r/n歲，董事長，子/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年/r/n1/r/n/r/n月起一直擔任本公司非執(zhí)行董事，/r/n負/r/n責/r/n的業(yè)務策略及整體發(fā)展/r/n擁有逾/r/n17/r/n/r/n年大型電力公司管理/r/n投資管理、/r/n/r/n/r/n1998/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2008/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月期間，他曾擔/r/n任/r/n市/r/n多個職位。/r/n2003/r/n/r/n年/r/n2/r/n/r/n-2008/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月期間/r/n他先后擔/r/n任/r/n市市政市/r/n容管/r/n理/r/n副/r/n/r/n1998/r/n/r/n10/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2003/r/n/r/n年/r/n2/r/n/r/n月期間，他曾擔/r/n任/r/n市崇/r/n文區(qū)/r/n副/r/n。/r/n1998 /r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月/r/n- /r/n月他擔/r/n任/r/n市公用/r/n局/r/n助理/r/n /r/n 月/r/n-1998/r/n/r/n間，他/r/n在/r/n市液化石/r/n氣公司先后擔任副經(jīng)理及經(jīng)理。/r/n1982/r/n/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月/r/n-1988/r/n/r/n年/r/n1/r/n/r/n月期間，他加/r/n入/r/n市煤/r/n1978/r/n/r/n9/r/n/r/n-1982/r/n/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月在首都經(jīng)貿(mào)大學工業(yè)經(jīng)濟系修讀/r/n企業(yè)管理，/r/n獲得學/r/n /r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月/r/n-1997/r/n/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月修讀企業(yè)管理，現(xiàn)擁/r/n有/r/n/r/n/r/n15/r/n/r/n年電力業(yè)生產(chǎn)、建設、業(yè)務管理及資本管理經(jīng)驗。郭先生于/r/n2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n1/r/n/r/n京/r/n能/r/n，/r/n擔/r/n經(jīng)理助理。他于/r/n2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月晉升為副總經(jīng)理，并于/r/n2008/r/n/r/n12/r/n/r/n月擢升為總經(jīng)理兼董事。此外，從/r/n2007/r/n/r/n年/r/n1/r/n/r/n月起，他一直擔/r/n任/r/n京能國/r/n。在/r/n2003/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月期間，/r/n他擔任/r/n內(nèi)/r/n岱海發(fā)/r/n電/r/n公司總經(jīng)理。/r/n2000/r/n/r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月期間，他/r/n在/r/n國際電力開發(fā)投資公司工作，先后擔任電力投資管理部副經(jīng)理及經(jīng)理。/r/n1999/r/n/r/n年/r/n11/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2000/r/n/r/n年/r/n9/r/n月?lián)紊蜿柹蚝訁^(qū)人/r/n民/r/n區(qū)長助理。郭先生于/r/n1990/r/n/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月取/r/n得/r/n科技大學電力工程系學士學位，并于/r/n1995/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月取/r/n得/r/n水利電力大/r/n學/r/n/r/n。/r/n2003-2006/r/n/r/n年期間，他于/r/n 。/r/n2007-2008/r/n/r/n年，他/r/n為/r/n工業(yè)大/r/n學管理學院博士后流動/r/n站/r/n學生。/r/n先生，/r/n54/r/n/r/n歲，/r/n非執(zhí)行董事，/r/n負責公司的/r/n業(yè)務策略及整體發(fā)展。/r/n擁有逾/r/n6/r/n/r/n年大型電力公司財務、物業(yè)及會計管理經(jīng)驗/r/n。/r/n于/r/n2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n11/r/n/r/n月加入京能/r/n，/r/n擔任副總經(jīng)理至今。/r/n2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n11/r/n/r/n月期間，他/r/n在/r/n國際電力開發(fā)投資公司擔任副總經(jīng)理。/r/n1996/r/n/r/n年/r/n8/r/n/r/n月/r/n-1998/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月期間他曾擔任大連金石灘度假區(qū)管委會/r/n副/r/n，/r/n1998/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月期間擔任大連經(jīng)濟技術開發(fā)區(qū)管理/r/n副/r/n他/r/n于/r/n1978/r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月/r/n-1982/r/n/r/n男/r/n10/r/n/r/n月期間在遼寧財經(jīng)學院修讀財務管理，/r/n ，并于/r/n1986/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月取得投資經(jīng)濟/r/n學/r/n/r/n。此外，他在東北財經(jīng)/r/n /r/n孟文濤先生，/r/n41/r/n/r/n歲，公司執(zhí)行董事兼總經(jīng)理/r/n。/r/n自/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月起擔任公司/r/n18/r/n年電力業(yè)生產(chǎn)、建設及業(yè)務管理經(jīng)驗。/r/n2007/r/n/r/n5/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2010/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月/r/n他擔/r/n任/r/n京能熱電/r/n董事/r/n總經(jīng)理/r/n并于/r/n2006/r/n/r/n年/r/n11/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2007/r/n/r/n5/r/n/r/n月期間擔/r/n任/r/n北方公司安全生產(chǎn)監(jiān)督部副部長。/r/n2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2006/r/n年/r/n11/r/n月期間，他擔任/r/n內(nèi)/r/n岱海發(fā)/r/n電/r/n公司副總經(jīng)理。他在/r/n1992/r/n/r/n年/r/n-2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月期間，任職/r/n于/r/n發(fā)電廠，先后擔任營運部運/r/n行班長、值班長、組織/r/n部副部長、檢修出/r/n副/r/n、/r/n及副總工程師/r/n，/r/n于/r/n2002/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月取得中華北電力大學電力系統(tǒng)及自動/r/n化/r/n/r/n。/r/n公/r/n司/r/n歷/r/n史/r/n經(jīng)/r/n營/r/n京能清潔能源的各項經(jīng)營業(yè)績?nèi)缡垭娏俊I業(yè)收入、凈利潤均保持穩(wěn)步增長，/r/n2009-2012/r/n/r/n22%/r/n19.88%/r/n，經(jīng)營/r/n/r/n48.05%/r/n71.77%/r/n。/r/n主營收入和經(jīng)營利潤如下圖所示/r/n6/r/n7/r/n/r/n8/r/n/r/n2012-13/r/n/r/n年隨著一系列風電和燃氣發(fā)電項目上線，/r/n公司的收/r/n入實/r/n現(xiàn)/r/n式/r/n增長。/r/n由于京/r/n橋熱電/r/n二/r/n期/r/n(838/r/n/r/n兆瓦/r/n)/r/n、/r/n高安屯/r/n(800/r/n/r/n兆瓦/r/n)/r/n、昌/r/n/r/n平未來城/r/n(200/r/n/r/n兆瓦/r/n)/r/n和北海淀/r/n(240/r/n/r/n兆瓦/r/n)/r/n項目投入運營，/r/n2012/r/n/r/n2013/r/n/r/n公司分別有/r/n1,038/r/n/r/n吉瓦和/r/n1,040/r/n/r/n吉瓦新容量投產(chǎn)，燃氣發(fā)電和供熱業(yè)務的收入貢獻將加速增長。/r/n2010-13/r/n/r/n37.7%/r/n，其中燃氣發(fā)電和熱力供應的年/r/n34.7%/r/n。/r/n公/r/n司/r/n優(yōu)/r/n勢/r/n與/r/n未/r/n來/r/n發(fā)/r/n展/r/n京能清潔能/r/n源/r/n首家設有集/r/n中/r/n系統(tǒng)的/r/n風電運營商。通過該系統(tǒng)在一個/r/n中心位置就可以實/r/n時/r/n相關風電場運行的風電機組，經(jīng)營效率大為提升。/r/n打破傳統(tǒng)運營模式，實現(xiàn)了/r/n對/r/n地區(qū)/r/n10/r/n/r/n家/r/n風電場的集/r/n中/r/n調(diào)度/r/n結(jié)合功/r/n率/r/n系/r/n統(tǒng)，實現(xiàn)風場有/r/n功和無功的精/r/n確控制，滿足電/r/n網(wǎng)大規(guī)模風/r/n場調(diào)/r/n減少風場運/r/n行/r/n和運營成本/r/n2011/r/n年，公司的風電集中控制系統(tǒng)獲得/r/n中/r/n民/r/n實用新型專利。/r/n未來/r/n《城鎮(zhèn)供熱系統(tǒng)能效提/r/n升/r/n與示范/r/n項目獲得國家科技/r/n“十二/r/n全面提升融資能力，優(yōu)/r/n化/r/n結(jié)構(gòu)，提/r/n供/r/n保障，防控能力明顯增強/r/n進一步完善內(nèi)控制度，項目建設全/r/n程/r/n，全面實施規(guī)范化管理/r/n管理團隊，增/r/n強/r/n競爭力。/r/n京能清潔能源具有多元化的清潔能源業(yè)務結(jié)構(gòu)/r/n。除了作/r/n為/r/n地區(qū)最大的燃氣發(fā)/r/n電/r/n及供熱運營商外，公司/r/n還/r/n領先的風力發(fā)/r/n電運營商，另外公司還涉及了中小型/r/n力度，通過不斷優(yōu)化，/r/n布局更加合理。截止/r/n2012/r/n年年底，在已投產(chǎn)發(fā)電裝機/r/n容/r/n量/r/n中/r/n，/r/n燃/r/n氣/r/n、/r/n風/r/n電/r/n、/r/n水/r/n電/r/n和/r/n光/r/n伏/r/n發(fā)/r/n電/r/n比/r/n例/r/n為/r/n51.2%、39.2%、9.3%/r/n和/r/n0.3%，/r/n燃/r/n氣/r/n發(fā)/r/n電集中/r/n在/r/n地區(qū)，占據(jù)得天獨厚的地域優(yōu)勢；風電、水電、光伏項目主要分布在/r/n公司堅持“做大氣電、做強風電、做多水電、/r/n做優(yōu)光電”的清潔能源發(fā)/r/n展/r/n，/r/n多/r/n行/r/n業(yè)/r/n概/r/nBP/r/n2000/r/n245/r/n2012/r/n1475/r/n16.14%/r/n2011/r/n10.56/r/n與傳統(tǒng)的燃煤電廠相/r/n比/r/n,燃氣熱電廠可頻繁/r/n快/r/n速啟動發(fā)/r/n電/r/n,因而可滿足臨時電力調(diào)/r/n度/r/n需/r/n求/r/n,并可在相對短時間內(nèi)增加及有效調(diào)節(jié)發(fā)/r/n電/r/n量/r/n,能夠靈活應/r/n付 /r/n期的供電以及在/r/n力需求陡增時銷/r/n售/r/n電力/r/n與燃煤發(fā)電相/r/n比/r/n,燃氣發(fā)電只會產(chǎn)生較少量的污染/r/n物/r/n,因此是較/r/n清/r/n潔的/r/n化/r/n石/r/n。/r/n天/r/n然氣/r/n具/r/n有/r/n發(fā)/r/n電效/r/n率高/r/n、機/r/n組/r/n啟動/r/n快/r/n、/r/n調(diào)/r/n節(jié)范/r/n圍/r/n大、/r/n運/r/n行/r/n靈/r/n活、適宜在負荷中心附近設廠等特點,適合用做電網(wǎng)調(diào)峰、保障電網(wǎng)運行質(zhì)量。天然氣電廠占地面積小,一般為燃煤電廠的10~30%;/r/n3,000元/r/n/千瓦,煤電項目造價4,500元/千瓦,風電項目造價7,500~8,000/r/n由于華北地區(qū)冬季供暖需求較大,所以不少電廠采用熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)的模式，發(fā)電機的部分蒸/r/n30%/r/n效率,燃氣熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)的發(fā)電效率更高(5/r/n0/r/n%以上),所以燃氣熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)電廠的設備利用率和營運效率更高。而且,與燃煤發(fā)電廠相比,燃氣聯(lián)產(chǎn)廠房工程架構(gòu)較簡單,不用預留空間存放廢灰,所需土地僅占燃煤發(fā)電廠的30%-40%。/r/n燃氣發(fā)/r/n電受/r/n到/r/n市/r/n的大力支持/r/n。/r/n的燃/r/n氣熱電廠均設/r/n在/r/n,/r/n市/r/n大力支/r/n持聯(lián)產(chǎn)發(fā)電/r/n廠發(fā)展,已頒布/r/n《/r/n市/r/n人/r/n民/r/n轉(zhuǎn)批市發(fā)/r/n展/r/n委/r/n關于加快構(gòu)/r/n建本市安全/r/n高效低碳城/r/n市供熱/r/n體系有關意/r/n見/r/n》,具體/r/n未來重/r/n視發(fā)展熱電/r/n聯(lián)產(chǎn)發(fā)電廠。截至“十一五”/r/n規(guī)劃期末/r/n,/r/n的燃氣/r/n熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)電廠總裝機容量約為/r/n2,000/r/n兆/r/n當前我國正處于工業(yè)化中后期和城鎮(zhèn)化加速發(fā)展的階段,不少地區(qū)污染排放嚴重超過/r/n環(huán)境容量,一些地區(qū)生態(tài)環(huán)境質(zhì)量甚/r/n至/r/n了幾十年。/r/n而且以水泥、/r/n鋼鐵、/r/n焦化等重/r/n化/r/nPM2.5/r/n治理需/r/n進行經(jīng)濟結(jié)/r/n構(gòu)/r/n升級,并大/r/n力進行/r/n能/r/n源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,因此/r/n清潔能/r/n源需求上升，替/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n（Source：興/r/n證/r/n10/r/n/r/n（Source：國/r/n /r/n圖表/r/n /r/n京能清/r/n潔能源/r/n是/r/n最大的燃氣/r/n發(fā)/r/n,多年/r/n以來/r/n占/r/n總?cè)細?r/n發(fā)電裝機容量/r/n/r/n約/r/n/r/n公司的供熱覆蓋范圍/r/n占/r/n燃氣聯(lián)產(chǎn)集中供熱的約/r/n74%/r/n公司在/r/n建項目投產(chǎn)/r/n時間較/r/n原計劃縮短,，正/r/n在/r/n開展的/r/n前期項目也/r/n將大大加/r/n快/r/n速/r/n度。/r/n2012/r/n兆瓦;東北熱電中心-高安屯燃氣熱電項目于/r/n2011/r/n年獲得批準,于/r/n2014/r/n年投入運行,/r/n投產(chǎn)裝機容量/r/n845兆瓦;西北熱電中心-京西燃氣熱電項目于2011/r/n期工/r/n作/r/n,投產(chǎn)安排由/r/n2014/r/n年提前到/r/n2013/r/n年,建成后可增加裝機容量/r/n1,308兆瓦/r/n2013、2014/r/n3,336、4,421/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n我/r/n國/r/n天/r/n然/r/n氣/r/n消/r/n費/r/n占/r/n比/r/n已/r/n從/r/n2000/r/n年/r/n的/r/n2.2%/r/n提/r/n升至2012/r/n年/r/n的/r/n5.3%,/r/n未/r/n來/r/n隨/r/n著/r/n輸/r/n氣/r/n管/r/n道/r/n的/r/n增/r/n13/r/n/r/n燃氣熱/r/n電聯(lián)產(chǎn)的主/r/n要使用/r/n能源是天然氣/r/n,/r/n之地的/r/n地緣優(yōu)勢使/r/n得/r/n在天然氣的/r/n供應/r/n煤/r/n制/r/n氣/r/n)/r/n、/r/n大/r/n唐/r/n煤/r/n制/r/n氣/r/n和/r/n唐/r/n山/r/nLNG,/r/n年/r/n輸/r/n氣/r/n總/r/n能/r/n力/r/n達/r/n到/r/n600億/r/n/r/n立/r/n方/r/n米/r/n,/r/n可/r/n以/r/n滿/r/n足/r/n市2015/r/n年/r/n當/r/n年/r/n180/r/n億/r/n立/r/n方/r/n米/r/n的/r/n用/r/n氣/r/n需/r/n求/r/n。同時,/r/n為/r/n了/r/n/r/n避/r/n免/r/n采/r/n暖/r/n時/r/n段/r/n用/r/n氣/r/n緊/r/n張,/r/n國家還在河北規(guī)劃了曹甸和華北兩個調(diào)峰儲氣庫的建設。/r/n?/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n天然/r/n氣/r/n管/r/n 市“十二五”規(guī)劃/r/n從/r/n市“十二五”/r/n時期天然氣規(guī)劃設施分布圖可以看出,國家保/r/n障/r/n天然氣/r/n氣源/r/n供/r/nIRR/r/n8%。/r/n15/r/n/r/n京/r/n能/r/n所/r/n獲/r/n補/r/n貼/r/n主/r/n要/r/n由/r/n市/r/n財/r/n政/r/n提/r/n供/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n市/r/n用/r/n于/r/n節(jié)/r/n能/r/n環(huán)/r/n保/r/n的/r/n財/r/n政/r/n支/r/n出/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增/r/n長/r/n58.46%，根/r/n《/r/n市/r/n城/r/n市/r/n公/r/n用/r/n企/r/n業(yè)/r/n補/r/n貼/r/n使/r/n用/r/n管/r/n理/r/n暫/r/n行/r/n辦/r/n法/r/n,/r/n由于電/r/n力及熱力均/r/n為城市/r/n公用產(chǎn)品,/r/n因此燃/r/n氣/r/n發(fā)電企/r/n業(yè)可/r/n獲/r/n補貼。根/r/n據(jù)/r/n市/r/n發(fā)改委頒布/r/n《/r/n市發(fā)/r/n展和/r/n關/r/n于燃氣/r/n電/r/n價補貼/r/n機制有關問/r/n題的函》,規(guī)定位/r/n于北京的燃/r/n氣熱電廠將/r/n持續(xù)獲/r/n得/r/n市/r/n的補貼,以貼/r/n補國家發(fā)改/r/n委制定/r/n的臨時結(jié)算/r/n價格/r/n與/r/n市/r/n審定且批準的上網(wǎng)電價的差價。/r/n從/r/n燃/r/n氣/r/n(/r/n城/r/n市燃氣/r/n管道的獨家/r/n營/r/n運商)/r/n采購燃/r/n氣，生產(chǎn)發(fā)電全/r/n部銷售/r/n給國家/r/n電/r/n網(wǎng)/r/n。/r/n按/r/n之/r/n前/r/n電/r/n價/r/n政/r/n策/r/n,/r/n公/r/n司/r/n銷/r/n售/r/n的/r/n燃/r/n氣/r/n上/r/n網(wǎng)/r/n電/r/n價/r/n宮為0.6177元//r/n度/r/n，/r/n京/r/n豐/r/n為/r/n0.686/r/n元/度/r/n其中國家電網(wǎng)支付/r/n0.573/r/n元/度/r/n二者之間的價差/r/n由/r/n市財政提供補貼/r/n2013/r/n0.4/r/n0.2/r/n5/r/n元。增量氣門站價格按可替代能源/r/n(/r/n油、液化石油氣)價格的/r/n85%確定。/r/n行/r/n業(yè)/r/n概/r/n國的風電裝機容量實現(xiàn)了飛速發(fā)展，/r/n2005-10/r/n/r/n26.8%/r/n。/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年，/r/n我國取/r/n代/r/n成為風電裝機容量最大的國家，達到/r/n42.3/r/n/r/n吉瓦。/r/n投資/r/n預計五年期間總投資額將達到/r/n5,000/r/n/r/n億/r/n電網(wǎng)制約的問題將逐步得到解決。而且，/r/n在/r/n《關于制定“十二五”規(guī)劃/r/n的建議》/r/n中/r/n，/r/n將加強電網(wǎng)建設力度，發(fā)/r/n展/r/n基于先進/r/n技術的電網(wǎng)體系。/r/n鑒于京能之前與國家電網(wǎng)公司和/r/n內(nèi)/r/n電/r/n力/r/n在國內(nèi)發(fā)電項目/r/n和/r/n電力市場發(fā)展計劃上都有過合作，/r/n公司項目在輸配電問題上應該沒有什么風險。/r/n公司旗下的八個風電項目分別接入國家電網(wǎng)公司和/r/n內(nèi)/r/n電力集/r/n66/r/n/r/n千伏、/r/n110/r/n/r/n220/r/n/r/n千伏輸配電網(wǎng)絡。/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n/r/n上網(wǎng)電價/r/n由/r/n依據(jù)招標確定/r/n的/r/n指導價而定。/r/n2009/r/n/r/n年發(fā)改委發(fā)布文件，進一步/r/n較高的上網(wǎng)電價。同區(qū)的所有陸上風能發(fā)電項目須采/r/n用/r/n標準的基準上網(wǎng)電價/r/n(/r/n包含/r/n)/r/n0.51/r/n/r/n元/r/n//r/n0.54/r/n/r/n元/r/n//r/n0.58/r/n/r/n元/r/n//r/n0.61/r/n/r/n元/r/n//r/n千瓦時。/r/n圖表/r/n/r/n /r/n1,000/r/n/r/n1.5/r/n億千瓦，位/r/n列/r/n第一。/r/n隨著該地區(qū)需求的上/r/n升以及電網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化，/r/n西部電網(wǎng)計劃將輸電能力由/r/n64/r/n/r/n億千瓦時提升至/r/n170/r/n/r/n億千/r/n瓦時。/r/n內(nèi)/r/n電/r/n網(wǎng)/r/n建/r/n設/r/n計/r/n劃/r/n如/r/n下/r/n圖/r/n所/r/n示/r/n：/r/n圖表/r/n/r/n /r/n內(nèi)/r/n風電需/r/n31%/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年我國新增風電裝機容量和風機/r/n16.5/r/n/r/n18.9/r/n/r/n吉瓦。由于風機采購成本占到風電場建設總成本的/r/n4000/r/n/r/n//r/n千瓦的風機價格將有利于新項目/r/n的/r/n收益率達到/r/n20%/r/n，/r/n超過了目前主要/r/n15-17%/r/n的水平。近年來風機價格走勢如下圖所示：/r/n19/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n業(yè)/r/n務/r/n情/r/n京能清潔能/r/n源/r/n領先的風力發(fā)電運營商。據(jù)/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年中國水電報告，公司風電控股裝機容/r/n量/r/n位列第八。/r/n公司的風電場主要位于中國風力資源較為豐富的內(nèi)蒙、/r/n及/r/n等地區(qū)，同時公司還/r/n是/r/n地區(qū)唯一的風電運營商。截至/r/n2013/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月/r/n30/r/n/r/n日/r/n1,600.25/r/n/r/n266/r/n/r/n2011/r/n/r/n2,474/r/n/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n圖表/r/n /r/n圖表/r/n /r/n/r/n目中，已經(jīng)拿到核準計劃的裝機容量已達/r/n1,100MW/r/n，項目多分布在內(nèi)蒙/r/n、/r/n和陜西/r/n圖表/r/n/r/n /r/n京/r/n能/r/n公/r/n司/r/n在/r/n風/r/n電/r/n行/r/n業(yè)/r/n的/r/n優(yōu)/r/n勢/r/n正確/r/n的/r/n選/r/n京能旗下的大多/r/n數(shù)風電場位于/r/n內(nèi)/r/n(84%)/r/n，/r/n其次分別/r/n是/r/n(11%)/r/n和遼寧/r/n(5%)/r/n。公/r/n司計/r/n上述地區(qū)內(nèi)。到/r/n2013/r/n年，/r/n內(nèi)/r/n的風電場將/r/n占到公司總裝機容量的/r/n62%/r/n，其次分別是/r/n(10%)/r/n、/r/n(9%)/r/n、/r/n(9%)/r/n、河北/r/n(6%)/r/n、/r/n山西/r/n(3%)/r/n和遼寧/r/n(1%)/r/n。/r/n2013/r/n圖表/r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n、/r/n、/r/n、/r/n民/r/n相關批準/r/n(/r/n目前公/r/n司的一級/r/n項目合/r/n計容量為/r/n99/r/n/r/n吉瓦/r/n)/r/n。耳機/r/n項目特指/r/n已經(jīng)與地/r/n方/r/n簽訂了項目協(xié)議、風電資源評估已初步完成的項目，合計容量為/r/n1,643.5/r/n/r/n兆瓦。/r/n三級項目則指那些已經(jīng)與相關地/r/n方/r/n簽訂諒解備忘錄的項目，/r/n總?cè)萘繛?r/n1,697/r/n兆瓦/r/n公司的項目分布于我國的東北和西北地區(qū)/r/n包括/r/n 和遼寧/r/n、/r/n、/r/n、/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n斯蘭風電和/r/nNordex/r/n/r/n公司。/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n多/r/n元/r/n化/r/n融/r/n資/r/n改/r/n善/r/n財/r/n務/r/n結(jié)/r/n構(gòu)/r/n構(gòu)/r/n-/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n圖表/r/n/r/n /r/n

/r/n聯(lián)/r/n營/r/n公/r/n司/r/n業(yè)/r/n績/r/n大/r/n幅/r/n提/r/n京/r/n能/r/n清/r/n潔/r/n能/r/n源/r/n參/r/n股/r/n了/r/n3/r/n家/r/n聯(lián)/r/n營/r/n公/r/n司/r/n，/r/n分/r/n別/r/n是/r/n全/r/n州/r/n水/r/n電/r/n、/r/n天/r/n銀/r/n地/r/n熱/r/n和/r/n京/r/n能/r/n國/r/n際能源。/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n由/r/n于/r/n煤/r/n炭/r/n價/r/n格/r/n持/r/n續(xù)/r/n下/r/n降/r/n，/r/n今/r/n年/r/n煤/r/n炭/r/n發(fā)/r/n電/r/n企/r/n業(yè)/r/n的/r/n經(jīng)/r/n營/r/n效/r/n益/r/n均/r/n大/r/n幅/r/n提/r/n升/r/n。/r/n據(jù)/r/n/r/n7/r/n/r/n月/r/n/r/n30/r/n/r/n日/r/n京/r/n能/r/n熱/r/n電/r/n披/r/n露/r/n的/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n中/r/n期/r/n業(yè)/r/n績/r/n，/r/n其/r/n凈/r/n利/r/n潤/r/n達/r/n到/r/n11.89/r/n億/r/n，/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增/r/n長/r/n達/r/n60%/r/n。/r/n2013/r/n上/r/n半/r/n年/r/n1.44/r/n水/r/n電/r/n項/r/n目/r/n快/r/n速/r/n增/r/n京能清潔能源的水電項目通過自建和收購兩種方式快速發(fā)展。2012年通過自建那邦水/r/n2012年年底，公司水電裝機容量已達368.89MW。2013年/r/n公/r/n司投/r/n產(chǎn)/r/n黑水三聯(lián)/r/n水電二期(裝機/r/n容量/r/n34MW/r/n圖表/r/n /r/n

/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/nColor/r/n紅/r/n色/r/n數(shù)/r/n燃/r/n氣/r/n發(fā)/r/n二/r/n五/r/n規(guī)/r/n劃/r/n2015/r/n年/r/n將/r/n建/r/n好/r/n并/r/n投/r/n入/r/n使/r/n用/r/n4/r/n個/r/n電/r/n廠共/r/n780MW，/r/n隨/r/n后/r/n根/r/n據(jù)/r/n地/r/n區(qū)/r/n每/r/n年/r/n20%/r/n的/r/n電/r/n廠需求增長/r/n率/r/n保守估計平均每年可有/r/n100MW/r/n的設備新投入使用。/r/n30/r/n/r/n 估計每個電廠每年使用時間也將/r/n50/r/n表格/r/n /r/n通過前三年平/r/n均/r/n估計出燃氣電廠消耗天然氣的比率，最終得出了/r/n0.19/r/n立方米/r/n/kWh/r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n補貼（/r/n30%無法被覆蓋/r/n表格/r/n /r/n燃/r/n氣/r/n發(fā)/r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n /r/n風/r/n，/r/n從國家對風電行業(yè)的支持和風力資源的利用前景來看/r/n/r/n京能公司的裝機容量/r/n將/r/n以穩(wěn)定速率增長。而/r/n從/r/nIPO/r/n招股書中看出，/r/n京能打算對/r/n內(nèi)/r/n和/r/n的風/r/n能/r/n繼續(xù)投資，/r/n而/r/n和遼寧 /r/n 的裝機容量增加/r/n49/r/n/r/n單位，其他都用于投資潛能最大的內(nèi)/r/n，/r/n。/r/n表格/r/n /r/n 會每年增加/r/n90/r/n/r/n小時，/r/n10/r/n/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n2%/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n聯(lián)/r/n營/r/n公/r/n由于聯(lián)營公司業(yè)務相似，按照京能清潔能源收入增長率/r/n來/r/n聯(lián)營公司業(yè)績/r/n表格/r/n /r/n水/r/n力/r/n發(fā)/r/n保守估計，水電業(yè)務預計每年新增容量約為/r/n70MW/r/n，水電機組的年利用小時數(shù)維持在/r/n3,500/r/n小時左右。/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n其/r/n他/r/n收/r/n入（/r/n補/r/n貼/r/n與/r/n/r/n（CDM/r/n(CERs)，京能同時還參與/r/n了/r/n議定書之外的自愿減排機制(VERs)。/r/n公司共/r/n有/r/n40/r/n個項目有資格申/r/n請/r/nCDM/r/n,28/r/n個項目已獲得國家發(fā)改委的批準,整體來看/r/n，將/r/n有/r/n的清潔能源項目投產(chǎn)。京能已與12/r/n個來自歐洲的獨立/r/n第/r/n買家簽訂了減排額/r/n度/r/n協(xié)議。/r/nCDM/r/n同時也就帶來/r/n了/r/n的/r/nCER/r/n和/r/nVER/r/n交易機會，/r/n因此在這/r/n里/r/n估計/r/nCDM/r/n收入/r/n在/r/n期限/r/n15/r/n/r/nCDM/r/n/r/n損/r/n益/r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n表格/r/n19/r/n/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n21/r/n/r/n22/r/n/r/nAttribute/r/nto/r/n23/r/nAttribute/r/nto/r/n資/r/n產(chǎn)/r/n負/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n25/