組織的經濟學與管理學(英文)ch13-Biases-in-decision-making課件

Chapter13BiasesindecisionmakingGeorgeHendrikseEconomicsandManagementofOrganisations:Co-ordination,MotivationandStrategy

Chapter13EconomicsandManageFigure13.2:Tendenciesindecisionmaking

Figure13.2:TendenciesindecOrganisationalmeasureschangingthecostsand/orbenefitsofthechoicepossibilitieschangingthechoicepossibilitiesstructuretheamountandnatureofinformationOrganisationalmeasureschanginShorttermfocusCurrentcostsandbenefitsreceiveadisproportionalamountofattentionindecisionprocesses.ShorttermfocusCurrentcosts1.ProcrastinationPostponestartingahealthydietstartinganewprojectkillingabadperformingprojectstartstudyingforanexam1.ProcrastinationPostponeOrganisationalresponsesposeadeadlineforprofitabilitypunishadmittingmistakesmildlyallowcredibleexcusesseparatestartingandfinishingdecisionsjobrotation(tolimitovercommitmenttoproject)OrganisationalresponsesposeaMakeresultsvisibleclearfiguresstep-by-stepplanMakeresultsvisibleclearfigu2.Obedience‘Befehlistbefehl’2.Obedience‘BefehlistbefehlMilgramexperimentsAseriesofsmall,escalatingconcessionsestablishesanincredibleobedience.MilgramexperimentsAseriesof3.MeliorationHerrnstein&Prelec(1992)3.MeliorationHerrnstein&PrePeople(andanimals)havethetendencytofocusontoday’scostsandbenefitsofcurrentchoices,withouttakingfutureconsequencesofthesechoicesintoaccount.People(andanimals)havetheShortsightednessDistanceInterest/backgroundProbabilityofcertaineventsoccurringShortsightednessDistanceLawofsmallnumbersPeopleoftenexaggeratetherepresentativenessofasmallsample.LawofsmallnumbersPeopleoftStrikinginformationgetstoomuchweightinthedecisionprocessofpeople.StrikinginformationgetstooProspecttheoryAsymmetrybetweengainsandlossesReferencepointProspecttheoryAsymmetrybetweFramingThechoices/preferencesofpeopleareoftennotrobustw.r.t.thewayinwhichchoicepossibilities/alternativesarerepresented.FramingThechoices/preferencReferencepointMostpeopleareoftenmoresensitivetohowthecurrentsituationdiffersfromtoareferencepoint,thantotheactualcharacteristicsofthesituation.ReferencepointMostpeopleareTwoempiricalobservationsLossaversion.Peoplevalueasmalllosstwiceasmuchasasimilargain.Decreasingsensitivity.Marginalchangesclosetothereferencepointentailalargerchangeinutilitythananidenticalmarginalchangefarawayfromthereferencepoint.TwoempiricalobservationsLossHowdoyoudepicttheseobservationsinafigure?HowdoyoudepicttheseobservValueProfitLossCumulativeprospecttheoryValueProfitLossCumulativeprosThreepropertiesRelationshipbetweenMUandrisk-aversionisabandonedGain-LossLossaversionimpliesthatthereisareferencepoint(0)ThreepropertiesRelationshipbImplicationforbehaviourfromLossaversionDecreasingsensitivityImplicationforbehaviourfrom1.Lossaversion2*Gain=Loss1.Lossaversion2*Gain=LossOrganisationalchange“Injusticeshavetobecommittedatonce,thentheyareexperiencedless;andbenefitshavetobegivenlittlebylittle,thentheytastebetter.”-Machiavelli(1513)OrganisationalchangeCosts‘atonce’becauseU(-1)+U(-1)+U(-1)=3U(-1)<U(-3)Benefits‘littlebylittle’becauseU(3)<U(1)+U(1)+U(1)Costs‘atonce’becauseSalarystructureSmallannualraisesarepreferredaboveone-timejumps.SalarystructureSmallannualrResponsetouncertaintyPeoplewillresponddifferentlytogainsthantolosses.ResponsetouncertaintyPeopleFigure13.6:Gainsandriskaversebehaviour

LossGainReferencepointValueValuecertaintyValueuncertainty10050Figure13.6:GainsandriskavFigure13.7:Lossesandriskseekingbehaviour

LossGainValueValuecertaintyValueuncertaintyO-50-100Figure13.7:Lossesandrisks2.Decreasingsensitivity2.DecreasingsensitivityFramingAframethatgivestheimpressionthatlossesarerelativelysmallonthescalethatisused,makesthethechoicemoreattractive.FramingAframethatgivestheApplication:

MoneyillusionPeopleperceiveasalaryriseof5%duringaperiodof12%inflationaslessharmfulthannoraiseduringaperiodof7%inflation.Application:

MoneyillusionPeFigure13.8:GainsfarawayfromthereferencepointarelessattractiveWinst················WaardeNutO5712Figure13.8:GainsfarawayfrGovernanceimplicationoflossaversionIfpreferencesaredeterminedbythe(local)situation,thenhumansmaybealtruisticinorganisation/families,andopportunisticinmarkets.GovernanceimplicationoflossThismaybeduetoreferencepointsituationdependentallocationoflimitedcognitiveunitsThismaybeduetoImplicationIsthecriticismofproperlyrightstheoryonTCE,i.e.opportunisminmarketsandaltruisminorganisations,valid?ImplicationIsthecriticismofInstitutionsmould,andaremouldedby,humanbehaviour.Institutionsmould,andaremoInstitutionsdeterminehumanbehaviourTheyinfluencethewayinformationispresented,whichinformationiscommunicated,andhowinformationisgivensense.InstitutionsdeterminehumanbHumanbehaviourdeterminesinstitutionsHumansformhabitsandroutines.Institutionsaredurableandintegratedsetsofhabitsandroutines.HumanbehaviourdeterminesinsCriticismonincompletecontractingtheoryOnlythecausaleffectof‘humanbehaviour’on‘institutions’isanalysed.CriticismonincompletecontraChapter13BiasesindecisionmakingGeorgeHendrikseEconomicsandManagementofOrganisations:Co-ordination,MotivationandStrategy

Chapter13EconomicsandManageFigure13.2:Tendenciesindecisionmaking

Figure13.2:TendenciesindecOrganisationalmeasureschangingthecostsand/orbenefitsofthechoicepossibilitieschangingthechoicepossibilitiesstructuretheamountandnatureofinformationOrganisationalmeasureschanginShorttermfocusCurrentcostsandbenefitsreceiveadisproportionalamountofattentionindecisionprocesses.ShorttermfocusCurrentcosts1.ProcrastinationPostponestartingahealthydietstartinganewprojectkillingabadperformingprojectstartstudyingforanexam1.ProcrastinationPostponeOrganisationalresponsesposeadeadlineforprofitabilitypunishadmittingmistakesmildlyallowcredibleexcusesseparatestartingandfinishingdecisionsjobrotation(tolimitovercommitmenttoproject)OrganisationalresponsesposeaMakeresultsvisibleclearfiguresstep-by-stepplanMakeresultsvisibleclearfigu2.Obedience‘Befehlistbefehl’2.Obedience‘BefehlistbefehlMilgramexperimentsAseriesofsmall,escalatingconcessionsestablishesanincredibleobedience.MilgramexperimentsAseriesof3.MeliorationHerrnstein&Prelec(1992)3.MeliorationHerrnstein&PrePeople(andanimals)havethetendencytofocusontoday’scostsandbenefitsofcurrentchoices,withouttakingfutureconsequencesofthesechoicesintoaccount.People(andanimals)havetheShortsightednessDistanceInterest/backgroundProbabilityofcertaineventsoccurringShortsightednessDistanceLawofsmallnumbersPeopleoftenexaggeratetherepresentativenessofasmallsample.LawofsmallnumbersPeopleoftStrikinginformationgetstoomuchweightinthedecisionprocessofpeople.StrikinginformationgetstooProspecttheoryAsymmetrybetweengainsandlossesReferencepointProspecttheoryAsymmetrybetweFramingThechoices/preferencesofpeopleareoftennotrobustw.r.t.thewayinwhichchoicepossibilities/alternativesarerepresented.FramingThechoices/preferencReferencepointMostpeopleareoftenmoresensitivetohowthecurrentsituationdiffersfromtoareferencepoint,thantotheactualcharacteristicsofthesituation.ReferencepointMostpeopleareTwoempiricalobservationsLossaversion.Peoplevalueasmalllosstwiceasmuchasasimilargain.Decreasingsensitivity.Marginalchangesclosetothereferencepointentailalargerchangeinutilitythananidenticalmarginalchangefarawayfromthereferencepoint.TwoempiricalobservationsLossHowdoyoudepicttheseobservationsinafigure?HowdoyoudepicttheseobservValueProfitLossCumulativeprospecttheoryValueProfitLossCumulativeprosThreepropertiesRelationshipbetweenMUandrisk-aversionisabandonedGain-LossLossaversionimpliesthatthereisareferencepoint(0)ThreepropertiesRelationshipbImplicationforbehaviourfromLossaversionDecreasingsensitivityImplicationforbehaviourfrom1.Lossaversion2*Gain=Loss1.Lossaversion2*Gain=LossOrganisationalchange“Injusticeshavetobecommittedatonce,thentheyareexperiencedless;andbenefitshavetobegivenlittlebylittle,thentheytastebetter.”-Machiavelli(1513)OrganisationalchangeCosts‘atonce’becauseU(-1)+U(-1)+U(-1)=3U(-1)<U(-3)Benefits‘littlebylittle’becauseU(3)<U(1)+U(1)+U(1)Costs‘atonce’becauseSalarystructureSmallannualraisesarepreferredaboveone-timejumps.SalarystructureSmallannualrResponsetouncertaintyPeoplewillresponddifferentlytogainsthantolosses.ResponsetouncertaintyPeopleFigure13.6:Gainsandriskaversebehaviour

LossGainReferencepointValueValuecertaintyValueuncertainty10050Figure13.6:GainsandriskavFigure13.7:Lossesandriskseekingbehaviour

LossGainValueValuecertaintyValueuncertaintyO-50-100Figure13.7:Lossesandrisks2.Decreasingsensitivity2.DecreasingsensitivityFramingAframethatgivestheimpressionthatlossesarerelativelysmallonthescalethatisused,makesthethechoicemoreattractive.FramingAframethatgivestheApplication:

MoneyillusionPeopleperceiveasalaryriseof5%duringaperiodof12%inflationaslessharmfulthannoraiseduringaperiodof7%inflation.Application:

MoneyillusionPeFigure13.8:GainsfarawayfromthereferencepointarelessattractiveWinst················