PDF解除密碼-普華永道-全球運輸與物流業(yè)并購交易報告-普華永道2022年上半年全球運輸與物流業(yè)并購交易、合資企業(yè)和戰(zhàn)略聯(lián)盟分析（英）-24正式版

Transport&LogisticsBarometer2022midhalf-yearanalysisM&Adeals,jointventuresandstrategicalliancesinthetransportandlogisticsindustryThispublicationhasbeendevelopedincollaborationbetweenthePwCTransportandLogisticspracticealongsideStrategy&,PwC’sglobalstrategyconsultingbusiness.Ourpurposeistobuildtrustinsocietyandsolveimportantproblems.Strategy&isaglobalstrategyconsultingbusinessuniquelypositionedtohelpdeliveryourbestfuture:onethatisbuiltondifferentiationfromtheinsideoutandtailoredexactlytoyou.AspartofPwC,everyday,we’rebuildingthewinningsystemsthatareattheheartofgrowth.Wecombineourpowerfulforesightwiththistangibleknow-how,technology,andscaletohelpyoucreateabetter,moretransformativestrategyfromdayone.Astheonlyat-scalestrategybusinessthat’spartofaglobalprofessionalservicesnetwork,weembedourstrategycapabilitieswithfrontlineteamstoshowyouwhereyouneedtogo,thechoicesyou’llneedtomaketogetthere,andhowtogetit/?2022PricewaterhouseCoopersGmbHWirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft.Allrightsreserved.Inthisdocument,“PwC”referstoPricewaterhouseCoopersGmbHWirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft,whichisamemberfirmofPricewaterhouseCoopersInternationalLimited(PwCIL).EachmemberfirmofPwCILisaseparatelegalentity.3 | 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerAgendaHighlightsKeyissuesfortheindustryGeopoliticaldisruptionOutlookAppendix:Dealsinfigures,methodology,contacts4 | 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometer1Highlights5 | 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerHighlights129mergersandacquisitionswereannouncedinthetransportandlogistics(T&L)industryinthefirsthalfof2022.Althoughthisrepresentsadecreasecomparedtotheprevioushalf-years,activityremainsatafairlystronglevel–exceptinChina,wheredealactivityisattheweakestlevelin10years(only15%ofthetotalnumberofdealsglobally).ThelargestdealannouncementbetweenBlackstone,Italy’sBenettonfamilyandAtlantia($52billion)drovethetotaldealvalueto$125.9billion–thehighestperhalfyearsince2017.Afurther18megadeals,dealswithavalue>$1billion,wereannounced.Strategicinvestorscontinuetogaingroundinthebuyerbasewithashareof46%(2021:44%);however,theymadeupforonly28%ofthetotaldealvalue.ThisisbecausetheAtlantiatakeoverinvolvesfinancialinvestorsandisaloneresponsibleforabout40%ofthetotalvalueofalldeals.

LogisticsandTruckingremainthedrivingforceinglobalM&Aactivity,accountingfor50%ofallannounceddeals;andhaswitnessedamixofdealsinavarietyofbusinesses,including,forexample,DBSchenker,whichagreedtoacquireUSATruckina$435milliontake-privatedeal.Inaddition,growthambitionsandthequestformorecontroloversupplychainshavedrivenM&AactivityinH12022.ThemajorshippingcompanieslikeMSC,CMACGMetc.continuedtheireffortstoevolveintointegratedlogisticsprovidersthroughacquisitionsintargetsoutsidetheircorebusiness.Overall,freight-relatedtargetsaccountedfor72%,slightlydownfrom75%in2021,meaningthattheupwardtrendofrecentperiodsforfreight-relatedtargetshasbeeninterrupted,atleasttemporarily.TheRussia-Ukrainewarhasimpactedfreighttransportandlogisticssignificantlybutisevaluatedtobemanageableoverall.Thesharpriseinenergyandlabourcostsresultingfromthewaristhemostseverefactor,particularlyinEurope,asfreighttransportandlogisticscompaniesusuallyoperateonslendermargins.Thesechallenges,however,haveonlyaddedtopre-existingdelaysandpricehikesresultingfromtheCOVID-19pandemic.Passengertransporthasbeenlessaffectedbytheseverityofcommoditypriceincreasesandsignificantdisruptiontosupplychains.

2.5%istheprojectedgrowthofGDPintheEuropeanUnionin2022,adecreasefromthe4.0%predictedbeforetheoutbreakofhostilitiesatthebeginningoftheyear.Thisisaccordingtothemostlikelyscenario,“Accelerateddeglobalisation”,inourStrategy&analysis.WiththeexceptionofRussia,wherethesharpestdropinGDPisexpected(-9.8%),weobservethatthenegativeimpactofthewaronothergeographiesisnotlargecomparedtotheirbaselinecases.However,strengtheningtheglobaleconomywillrequireconcertedinternationalcooperationandfocusedmovestoaddresstheunderlyingproblems.

InH22022theoutlookforthesubsectorsoftheT&Lindustrylooksbasicallypositive,providedthatthegeneralgeopoliticalsituationdoesnotdeteriorate.WeexpectM&Aactivitytoremainatasimilarlevel.However,thisissubjecttoconsiderableuncertainty.Lowervaluations,thedriveformarketshare,theexpansionofserviceofferingsandenhancedresiliencewillstilltriggersomemergersandacquisitions.Inthiscontext,factorslikeESG,people,andtechnologyagendasofthetargetcompaniesareincreasinglygainingattention.6 | 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometer2Keyissuesfortheindustry7 | 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerGrowthmomentumdeceleratedAfterthesecondhalfof2021,whichwasmarkedbyanincreasedimbalanceinsupplyanddemand,severelydisruptedsupplychainsandrepeatednewCOVID-19measuresbyindividualcountriesthatburdenedglobalflowsofgoodsandparticularlypeople,2022wassupposedtobetheyearofpost-COVID-19recoveryandgrowth.Instead,itisevolvingintoanuncertainperiodofgeopoliticalrealignments,persistentsupplyshortages,andbroadeningpricepressures.Adevelopmentthathasbeenapparentforsometimeisacceleratedbythecurrentenvironment:Areorderingoftheworldisemerging,andthenatureofglobalisationischanging.Countriesinteractlessintegrativelyandcollectively;instead,theyputtheirnationalsovereigntyandowneconomicpolicyinterestsfirst,asseenwithUK’sBrexitorTrump’snationalismintheUS.Theconsequenceforglobalsupplychainsisthattherelocationofproductionprocessesornearshoringaregaininginimportance.TheTrackingIndexfortheGlobalEconomicRecovery(TIGER*),atwice-yearlyanalysisproducedbyTheBrookingsInstitutionandTheFinancialTimes,revealsthatamarkedlossofgrowthmomentumwasevidentfrommid-2021.Inbothadvancedandemergingeconomies,realactivityandfinancialmarketsbothstartedtofallin2021.TheemergenceoftheRussia-UkrainewarinlateFebruary2022andtheresurgenceofCOVID-19inChinaexacerbatedthisalreadyfragilesituation.TheKielTradeIndicatoranalysesthetradeflowsofcountriesandregionsthroughouttheworldbasedonananalysisofthemovementsofcontainerships.Afterglobaltradesurpasseditspre-crisislevelinJanuary,itfellby5.6%inFebruary,withasignificantslumpinexportsinRussia.IntheEU,theeffectswerefeltwithaslightdelayinrelationtothesanctionsimposedbyWesterngovernments.Accordingtotheindicator,importsdecreasedby3.4%inMarchcomparedtothepreviousmonth,andexportsby5.6%.TradedatastabilisedinApril,butsincethen,containershipcongestion,whichhasnowreachedtheNorthSea,hasledtoadeteriorationagain.Theaftermathofthepandemicisstillbeingfeltinthetransportandlogisticsindustryaswell,andtherecoveryisagainbeingdisruptedbynewlyemergingchallenges.However,thesub-sectorsareatdifferentstagesandareaffectedtodifferentdegreesbycurrenthappenings.

IndustryindicatorsshowcontinueddivergenceinT&LPassengertransportAccordingtoCER,railpassengervolumesandrevenuescontinuetorecoverfromCOVID-19,butwerestillwellbelowpre-pandemiclevelsinMarch(-24%and-20%,respectively,vsMarch2019).However,bothhavebeentrendingupwardsinceFebruary,aftertherecoverycurvefellsomewhatbetweenOctober2021andJanuary2022.Airtravelalsocontinuestorecoverfromthepandemic-relatedslump,despiteChina’sstrictCOVID-19measuresandtheRussia-Ukrainewar.InMay,industry-widerevenuepassengerkilometres(RPKs)increased83.1%YoY,andglobalpassengervolumeswere31.3%belowpre-pandemic2019levels.Thedomesticmarketsarerecoveringwell,withtheexceptionofChina,whererenewedtravelrestrictionshaveledtoasharpdeclineinRPKs,capacityandloadfactors.EuropeanairlinesperformedstronglyinAprilandMayandremainedaleadingforceintheindustry’srecovery.TheycouldevenincreaseairtrafficbetweenEuropeandotherregionsinrecentmonths.Worldwideportcallsforcruiseshipsrecoveredmodestlyin2020and2021.Thefirstquarterof2022revealedastrongreboundat-15.6%inMarchcomparedto2019,accordingtotheEuropeanMaritimeSafetyAgency(EMSA).*FreighttransportandlogisticsInaircargo,2022startedwiththelowestyear-on-yeargrowthrateofindustry-widecargotonnekilometres(CTK)sinceDecember2020.TheOmicronwavespreadinginChinaandtheRussia-Ukrainewarbothhavecausedcapacityconstraintsandsupplychaindisruptionswithanegativeimpactonaircargo.InMay,industry-wideCTKswere8.3%loweryear-on-year.EuropeandAsiaweretheregionswiththesharpestdeclinesinavailablecargocapacity.DuringCOVID-19,thehaltinpassengerairtrafficandtheresultinglossofbellyfreightcapacity,aswellastheshiftofsomeseafreighttoairfreightduringtheSuezCanalblockage,combinedwithincreaseddemandduetoe-commerce,ledtoasurgeinairfreightrates.SincethepeakinDecember2021,rateshavefallenuntiltheystartedtorisewithsomedelayfromAprilonwardsinthewakeoftheRussia-UkrainewarontheroutesChina-EuropeandChina-NorthAmerica.*TheBrookings-FTTIGERindexcomparesindicatorsofrealactivity,financialmarketsandconfidencewiththeirhistoricalaverages,bothfortheglobaleconomyandindividualcountries.

*onlyshipswithapassengercapacityof500ormorepassengerswereincludedSources:CER,IATA,EMSA8 | 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerOntheEurope-NorthAmericaroutes,rateshavedecreasedfromAprilastheyarelessaffectedbysanctionsandre-routing.Containerfreightratesremainatsignificantlyelevatedlevelscomparedtothepre-pandemicperiod,buthavesteadilydeclinedsincetheirpeakinSeptember2021.ThisshowsthatthelossofcapacityduringCOVID-19,portclosuresandtheSuezCanalblockadehavehadasignificantlygreaterimpactonratesthanthecurrentgeopoliticaltensions.Also,theincreasedoilpricehasnotyetaffectedshippingrates.TheBalticDryIndexwasatasimilarlevelattheendofJuneasitwasatthebeginningof2022.Inrecentmonthsitwassubjecttosomefluctuations,butreached3000pointsinMay,thehighestlevelinhalfayearbeforeitstartedtofallagain.InEuropeanroadfreight,theimpactofinflationonthesupplyside,particularlyondieselprices,hasledtoanall-timehighinratesinthefirstquarterof2022.TherestrictionofoilsuppliesfromRussiatoEuropehasledtofurtherupwardpressureonprices.Afterfurtherapproachingpre-crisislevelsattheendof2021,Europeanrailfreightvolumesdecreasedfromthebeginningof2022to-9%inMarch(vs.2019).Atthesametime,revenuesremainedstableat-4to-5%.

Globalcontainerfreightrates(inUSD)12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000Dec'19 Apr'20 Aug'20 Dec'20 Apr'21 Aug'21 Dec'21 Apr'22Sources:MacroMicro,in:StatistaCOVID-19outbreakSuezCanalblockageRussia-UkrainewarGlobalairfreightrates(inUSDperkgec'19Apr'20Aug'20Dec'20Apr'21Aug'21Dec'21Apr'22Europe–NorthAmericaChina–EuropeChina–NorthAmericaSources:TransportIntelligence,CER,PwCanalysis Sources:AirCargoNews,in:Statista9 | 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerUncertaintycloudsM&Aeuphoriafrom2021AfteranabsoluterecordM&Ayearin2021,dealactivityintheT&Lindustryslowedinthefirsthalfof2022.Atotalof129dealsworthatleast$50millionwereannouncedinH12022,comparedto175inH22021andafive-yearaverageof134dealsperhalf-year.Acrossallindustries,thetotalnumberofdealshasdecreaseddramaticallyinthefirsthalfof2022(-29%vsH22021).TherelativeshareofmergersandacquisitionsintheT&Lindustry,however,hasslightlyimprovedto3.7%from3.4%in2021,indicatingotherindustriestobemoreaffectedbythecurrentvolatilityinfinancialmarkets,inflationarypressures,risinginterestratesandgeopoliticaltensions,allofwhichcontributetooveralluncertainty.Afterincreasinginrecentyears,theshareoffreight-relatedtargetsintheT&Lindustryhasmovedslightlydownwardstostandat72%(2021:75%);passenger-relatedtargetsaccountedfor28%.Asignificantdifferenceisseenintheaveragedealvalue,whichisalmostfourtimeshigherforpassenger-relatedtargets($2,070million)thanforfreight-relatedtargets($553.1million).Theshareofstrategicinvestors(46%)inthebuyerbaseincreasedfurthercomparedtothepreviousyear.However,strategicinvestorsaccountedforonly28%ofthetotaldealvalue

(2021:52%),whilefinancialinvestorsgainedsignificantlyduetothebiggestdealannouncementinH12022,whichdistortsthepicturetoacertainextent.Amongthe19megadeals(2021:47),oneparticularlylargedealwasannouncedinthefirsthalfof2022,surpassingeventhe$33.5billionCanadianNationalRailway/KansasCitySoutherndealfrom2021.BlackstoneandItaly’sBenettonfamilyhavejoinedforcesthroughinvestmentvehicleSchemaquarantatretolaunchatenderoffer($52billion)fortheremaining66.618%interestintheItalianinfrastructuregroupAtlantia.Thecompany’sactivitiesincludemorethan14,000kilometresoftollroadsin16countriesacrossEurope,theAmericasandAsia,aswellastheoperationofairportsinItalyandFrance.Oncecompleted,theofferwouldmarkthelargestprivateequity-backedtake-privatedealforaEuropeanlistedcompany.Apartfromthat,itisnotsurprisingthattheLogisticsandTruckingsubsectorremainsthedriverofglobalM&AactivityinT&L,accountingforhalfoftheannouncedmergersandacquisitions.Thesharesoftheothersubsectorshavenotchangedsignificantlyeither:Shippingremainsthesecondstrongestsubsector(16%),whileRailcomesinlast(2%).Seemoredataonsubsectorsintheappendixonpage28.2016201720182019202020212022TotalTotalTotal1H192H19Total1H202H20Total1H212H21Total1H22Numberofdeals237283227138123261104152256149175324129Totaldealvalue119.9134.2116.268.474.3142.737.162.799.899.1119.8218.9125.9($bn)Averagedeal506.1474.1511.9495.9604.1546.9356.8412.7390.0665.4684.4675.7976.3value($m)Sources:PwCanalysis,basedonRefinitiv10| 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerDealactivityinT&LmirroringGDPAfterreachingahighinQ22021,realGDPgrowthratesstartedtodeclineinthesecondhalfof2021(Q3:4.7%;Q4:4.6%).Thisdevelopmenthascontinuedinthefirstsixmonthsof2022:globalGDPdecreasedto4.2%inQ1andto3%inQ2;concurrently,thenumberofdealannouncementsinT&Lfellfrom90inQ42021to66inQ12022,andfurtherto63inQ2.ItseemsthatM&AactivityoverallandinT&L?ismirroringtheGDPdevelopmentasaresultofthenumerousuncertaintyfactors.Wewillcontinuetomonitorthisastheyearprogresses.ThedevelopmentofthemajorshippingcompaniestryingtogainmoreinfluenceinglobalsupplychainsandactingasintegratedlogisticsprovidershascontinuedinH12022.Inadditiontoinvestingintheircorebusinessandterminals,shippingcompaniesareusingtheirhighgainsfromthepandemicyearsinparticulartoentertheairfreightbusiness.TheimminentsaleofAlitalia’ssuccessorITAAirways,hasreceivedalotofattention.Ultimately,MSCandLufthansajoinedforcesandstatedajointoffer,whileHapag-Lloydagreedtoacquirea10%stakeinLufthansainApril.KuehneAviationalsoacquireda5%stakeinLufthansainMarchandhassinceincreaseditsshareholding.APMoller-MaerskacquiredPilotFreightServices,aU.S.-based

internationalanddomesticsupplychainproviderwithcross-bordersolutionsintoCanadaandMexico,for$1.68billion.CMACGMhasbeenparticularlyactivewithanumberoftransactions,includingairfreight(AirFrance-KLM),parcelservices(ColisPrivé)andautomotivelogistics(Gefco).Theaviationsubsectorisexperiencingfreshconsolidationactivityanyway.Whileduringthepandemic,themainfocuswasonavertinginsolvencies,partlythroughstateaid,someweakenedairlinesarenowseekingrepositioningandgrowth.OneexampleistheintensebiddingbattlebetweenFrontierAirlinesandJetBlueAirwaysforSpirit,thelargestlow-costairlineintheUS.Besides,theT&Lindustrywitnessedamixofdealsinavarietyofbusinesses,including,forexample,generalfreighttrucking.DBSchenkeragreedtoacquireUSATruckina$435milliontake-privatedealaspartofitsambitiontoenhancethepresenceinNorthAmericanlandtransportandtobecomeafull-servicesupplychainproviderintheUS.Inadditiontoaimingtoincreasereachandinfluenceinsupplychains,T&LplayersarebuyingITexpertiseaspartoftheirdigitisationefforts.Forexample,DBSchenkerhasboughtthelogisticssoftwarespecialistBitergoandGermanforwarderFr.Meyer’sSohnacquiredthedataplatformEvertracker.

T&LM&Adeals(no.ofdealsandchangeinrealglobalGDP)100109080705605004030-520100-10Numberofdeals GlobalGDP(real),USD,%changeonpreviousyearSources:PwCanalysis,basedonRefinitiv Source:PwCanalysis,basedonRefinitivandIHS11| 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerStrategicalliancesdecreasedfurtherThenumberofstrategicallianceswasalreadyatalowlevelinthelasttwoyears;however,itdeclinedfurtherinthefirsthalfof2022;andthusdevelopedaccordingtotheGDPtrend.Thenumberofcodeshareagreementshasstillnotrecoveredcomparedtopre-COVID-19times,andonlyafewjointventureswereannounced.Forexample,thejointventurebuiltbetweenPonyTron,theautonomoustruckingbusinessunitofPony.aiandSinotrans,whichispartofChinaMerchantsGroup–oneofChina’sleadingfreightforwardingandlogisticscompanies–,willdevelopasmartlogisticsnetworkfeaturingautonomoustruckingtechnologiesandanintelligentfleetofmorethan100trucks.ThefirststepwastakeninJune2021withapilotprogramforlong-haullogistics.Thisisoneexampleofanumberofothercooperationagreementsconcerningautonomouscommercialvehicles.Apartfromthat,themajorityofcooperationsintransportandlogisticsareinthefieldsofdecarbonisationandalternativefuels.Forexample,Gasuine,HESInternationalandVopakhavesignedanagreementtojointlydevelopanimportterminalforgreenammoniaasahydrogencarrierthatwillbe

operatinginthePortofRotterdamfrom2026.AirLiquide,Airbus,KoreanAirandIncheonInternationalAirportarecooperatingtodevelopaconceptfortheuseofhydrogenatIncheonInternationalAirportandcreateanairportinfrastructureecosystemtodeployhydrogen-poweredcommercialaircraft.Someairlineshaveenteredintocooperationagreementstoexpandtheirnetworkoroffervalue-addedservices,likeMalaysiaAirlinesBerhadandQatarAirways.However,therehavealsobeenmovesinprivateaviation.OneexampleisMcDanGroupofCompaniesandDreamFlightsInternational,providersofprivateaviationcharterservices,whichhaveenteredastrategicalliancethatwillprovideprivateairtravelandcargotransportoperationsonaglobalscale.

T&Lstrategicalliances(no.ofalliancesannouncedandchangeinrealglobalGDP)5001040030052000100-50-10CodeshareJointOtherGlobalGDP(real),USD,agreementventurecollaboration%changeonpreviousyearSources:PwCanalysis,basedonRefinitiv Source:PwCanalysis,basedonS&PGlobalCapitalIQandIHS12| 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometer3Geopoliticaldisruption13| 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerGeopoliticaldisruptionRussia’sinvasionofUkrainehaswroughtsignificantdamagetoaglobaleconomythatwasalreadystrugglingtorecoverfromtheshockoftheCOVID-19pandemic.Intransportandlogistics,bothRussiaandUkrainearerelativelyminorplayersinglobalcomparisonwithsomeothermajormarkets.ThecombinedturnoveroftheRussianT&Lindustryisestimatedat$19.6billion(2020;Road,Post&Courier,Rail,Water,CargoHandling,WarehousingandTravelAgency&Air).InGermany,forcomparison,theT&Lmarketsizeisabout€280billion;inEurope,approximately€1.115billion(2020;scope:EUplusNorway,SwitzerlandandUK).DuetoitsaccesstotheBalticSea,theBlackSea,aswellastheCaspianSeaandthePacificOcean,Russiahaslongbeenwell-connectedand,therefore,enjoysasignificantpresenceontheworldmaritimetransportmarket,specialisinginrawmaterialsandcommodities,suchascrudeoilandoilproducts.Knownasthe“breadbasket”oftheworld,UkraineandRussiaareamongthetopexportersofavarietyofagriculturalproductssuchaswheatandsunfloweroilproducts.9%oftheworldwidevolumeofwheatshipmentswasexportedviaUkrainianportsbeforethewar.Thecurrenthaltontheexportofthesefoodstaplesishittingtheleastdevelopedcountriesespeciallyhard.Somalia,forexample,sources100%oftheirwheatfromUkraine(approx.68%)andRussia(approx.32%).

ImpactonkeyregionsWhenviewedfromaworldwideperspective,thegrimgeneralpictureinworldtradeissettocontinue.Overallglobaltradeandgrowthmomentumarelikelytobestymiedforaprolongedperiod.However,amoredetailedanalysisfromStrategy&andothersrevealstheunevenimpactofthewaronspecificterritoriesandregions,andonarangeofeconomicindicators.Forexample,theriseintheglobalmarketpriceofoilandgasresultingfromthewarhasnotaffectedthewholeworldinauniformway.WhereasmanycountriesinEuropehavesufferedasevereimpactduetotheirhighdependencyonRussianoilandgas,GulfnationsintheMiddleEastcouldbesaidtobeindirectlybenefitingfromthewar,giventheirhighenergyreservesandlimiteddomesticdemand.Byvirtueofitsrelativeenergyself-sufficiency,theUnitedStatesisalsofairlyinsulatedfromtheworsteffectsofthewar.Moreover,somecountriesandregions,suchasJapan,theUnitedStatesandtheMiddleEast,haveveryminorimportandexportrelationshipswithRussia,BelarusandUkraine,andsotherewaslittlethatcouldbeaffectedinthisrespect.Attheotherendofthescale,however,theramificationsofthewarhavebeendramatic.Forexample,theBalticstates(Lithuania,LatviaandEstonia)haveverydevelopedtradingrelationshipswiththecountriesdirectlyinvolvedinthewar,aswellasbeinghighlyreliantonRussiangas.OtherEuropeancountriesare,too,dependentonRussiancoal,oilandespeciallygas.ThisdependencewasparticularlyhighinGermany,Italy,AustriaandmostcountriesinCentralandEasternEurope.Sources:WorldEconomicForum,Statista,Top100inEuropeanTransportandLogisticsServices,UNCTAD,PwCanalysis14| 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerImpactonvariousindustriesInordertomeasuretheimpactofthewaronvariousindustries,wehaveanalysedthreedifferentfactors,ortransmissionchannels,depictedandexplainedinthegraphicontheright:CommoditypriceSupplychainTradeflowCommoditypriceSeveralindustrieshavebeenhighlyaffectedbytheuncertainenergysupplyandtherisingcostsofcommoditiesresultingfromthewarinUkraine.Thetransportandlogisticsindustry(bothpassengerandfreighttransport)isoneexample,asareadjacentsectorssuchasautomotive,industrialmanufacturing,chemicals,andconsumergoodsandretail.Increasedoil,gasandfuelpricessignificantlyraisecostsforactivitiessuchaschemicalrefinementorroadtransport.Moreover,thedifficultyinsubstitutingcommoditiesmeansthatthestandardfuelsforheat-reliantmanufacturingprocessesandmachinescannotbequicklyreplaced.ThereisaparticularshortageofcommoditiesthatemanateprincipallyfromRussiaandUkraine,withthelatter,forexample,previouslysupplyingaroundhalfoftheglobalsupplyofneongasnecessaryforthemanufactureofsemiconductors.

IncreasedpricesforfoodsandmetalsduetoingredientsstemmingfromRUS/UKR(wheat,fertilizer,…)Commodityprice(basegoods)SoaringenergypricesinEurope(oil,naturalgas,…)sinceRUSinvasionofUKRDirect–Importofmanufacturingparts(suchaswiringharnessforautomotive)producedmostlyinUKRSupplychain(industrial/manufacturinggoods)Indirect–Importdisruptionofmining*productsincreasesfoodretailprices/industrialproductionExportexposurestoRUS/UKR(markets,credits,deposits)Tradeflow(investmentsandotherfinancialentanglements)Tighteningfinancialconditionsandcapitaloutflow/reducedFDIs**andcapitalraisingactivitiesinRUSSources:S&/PwCanalysis Note–RUS=Russia;UKR=Ukraine;*Forinstance,bauxite(majorsourceofaluminumornoblegases);**Foreigndirectinvestments;Source:Strategy&analysis15| 19July2022Transport&LogisticsBarometerSupplychainStrategy&analysisrevealsthattheindustriesmostseriouslyhitinrespectofthesupplychaintransmissionchannelhavebeenautomotive,industrialmanufacturing,chemicals,consumergoodsandretail.Intheseindustries,internationalsupplychainsoptimisedforefficiencyhavelimitedresiliencetounexpectedandadverseevents.Indeed,supplychainsareoftenextremelycomplex,withinterlockingdependenciesthroughoutthesystem,which,whendisrupted,createahighlydamagingdominoeffect.Forexample,carsthataremadeupofmorethan10,000non-substitutablepartscannotbeassembledunlessallsuchrequiredpartsareavailable.Tomakemattersworse,theoptimisationofsupplychainsformaximumefficiencyusingjust-in-timeproductionmeansthattherearenostockpilestoboostresilience.Theseissueshavehitindustriesthatwerealreadyexperiencingwidespreadbottlenecksanddelays.Indeed,Russia’sinvasionhasfurthercompoundedsupplychaincongestionandpre-existingshortagesofpartsandgoodsthatresultedfromtheCOVID-19pandemicandtheensuinglockdownsthroughouttheworld.Partsarenottheonlyelementsofthejigsawinshortsupply.Thereadyavailabilityoflabourhasalsobecomeapressingissue.Befo