房地產(chǎn)評(píng)估與房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)

房地產(chǎn)評(píng)估與房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)ChengriDingAssociateProfessorNationalCenterforSmartGrowthUniversityofMarylandSpecialAssistantToPresidentofLincolnInstituteofLandPolicy’sChinaProgram丁成日博士馬里蘭大學(xué)城市規(guī)劃系終身教授馬里蘭大學(xué)城市理性增長(zhǎng)國家中心林肯土地政策研究院總裁特別助理兼中國部主任WhatisRealEstateEconomics

什么是房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)Isaboutpeopleandhowtheiractionsaffectrealestatevalues 房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究人以及人的行為影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)值Realestateeconomicsisastudythatuseseconomicprinciples,bothmacroandmicro,toanalyzetheimpactthatnational,regional,community,andneighborhoodtrendshaveonrealestatevalues. 房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)使用微觀和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原則分析國家、區(qū)域、社區(qū)和鄰里對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)值的影響Ithelpspeopletounderstandwhatcausesfluctuationsinrealestateactivityandhowthesechangescanaffectlocalrealestatemarkets. 房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)幫助人們理解影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)漲跌以及這些變化又如何影響地方房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)WhatareFactorsthatAffecttheValueofaProperty

影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)值的因素Capitalmarkets—supplyside 資本市場(chǎng)——供給方面Labormarkets—demandside 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)——需求方面Populationgrowth—demandside 人口增長(zhǎng)——需求方面Marketsegmentation—localityofsupplyanddemand,typesoruses,characteristicsofpropertyetc. 市場(chǎng)分割——供需的地方性，類型或使用，房地產(chǎn)特性等WhatareFactorsthatAffecttheValueofaProperty

影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)值的因素Interrelationshipbetweensub-marketsofproperties 房地產(chǎn)子市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)性Regulationsandlaws(taxation,landuseregulation) 規(guī)定與法律（稅收、土地利用規(guī)定）Urbaninfrastructureandneighborhoodamenity 城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和社區(qū)舒適度Political,social,andeconomicforces 政治、社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)力量CapitalMarketandPropertyMarket

資本市場(chǎng)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)Supplyofstructure 對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)（建筑面積）的需求Marketpricesandnetoperatingincomeofaproperty(rent) 市場(chǎng)價(jià)格和房地產(chǎn)凈運(yùn)營收入（租金）Interrelationshipbetweencapitalmarketandrealestatemarket(shortrunandlongrun) 資本市場(chǎng)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)性（短期和長(zhǎng)期）RealEstateMarketandMarketEquilibrium房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和市場(chǎng)平衡Capitalmarketinducedincreasesinsupply,decreaseinrents資本市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)致的供給增加，租金降低TheimpactofdecreaseinthemarketcapitalizationrateonrealestatemarketLocationandValueofaProperty房地產(chǎn)區(qū)位和和價(jià)值SupplyoflandUrbanlandrentgradientandlandpriceRelationbetweenurbanlandpriceandcapitaldensityLandpriceandurbanlanduse(spatialstructure)土地供給城市土地租金金梯度和土地地價(jià)格的關(guān)系系城市土地價(jià)格格和資本密度度的關(guān)系土地價(jià)格和城城市土地利用用（空間結(jié)構(gòu)構(gòu)）UrbanLandMarket城市土地市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)Supplyoflandisinelastic,demandiselastic土地供給是非非彈性的，需需求是彈性的的PQSDTranslatingrentstolandprices將租金轉(zhuǎn)化為為土地價(jià)值Rentsareafunctionof:AgriculturallandvalueValueofthestructuresLocationvalueExpectedgrowthinlocationvalue租金是包括如如下因子的函函數(shù)：農(nóng)用土地價(jià)格格建筑結(jié)構(gòu)價(jià)格格區(qū)位價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)區(qū)位價(jià)格格的增長(zhǎng)Translatingrentstolandprices將租金轉(zhuǎn)化為為土地價(jià)值Pricesareafunctionof:InterestratesExpectedrentgrowthRiskofrentalpaymentTaxregime價(jià)格是一個(gè)如如下因素決定定的函數(shù)：利率預(yù)計(jì)租金增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)租金支付風(fēng)險(xiǎn)險(xiǎn)稅收體制Landuseefficiencyindicatedbyhigh-degreeofland-capitalinputsubstitution土地和資本投投入的相互互替代程度,關(guān)系到城市土土地使用效率率的高低DensityProfilewithLandMarkets土地市場(chǎng)下的的城市密度空空間變化化ParisLandPrice(rentgradient)andSpatialStructure級(jí)差地租與空空間結(jié)構(gòu)CommercialIndustrialResidentialAgriculturalLanduseisdeterminedbythehighestbidder.Showseconomicdeterminantsoflandusesegregation.Landvaluesinmulti-nuclearcitiesCitySpatialFormandGrowthCitySpatialFormandGrowthHousingEconomics住房經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)CharacteristicsofhousingcommodityandhousingmarketsHeterogeneity(style,rooms,location,amenity,urbanservicesetc.)ImmobilityAchangeinhousingconsumptionmeansachangeinresidentiallocationHightransactioncostsMarketsegmentations房屋及其房屋屋市場(chǎng)的特性性異質(zhì)性（風(fēng)風(fēng)格，房間間數(shù)，位置置，城市服服務(wù)等）不可移動(dòng)性住房消費(fèi)的變變化意味著駐駐地的變化高的交易成本本分割的市場(chǎng)HousingEconomics住房經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)Whatisconsumed?ItisattributesofhousingthatincludesstructuralfactorsandlocationalamenityWiderangeofvariationinpricechangeacrosscitiesaswellasacrosslocalitywithinacityBuyingahouse=investment?Maybe.住房消費(fèi)？消消費(fèi)的是房屋屋的屬性（（結(jié)構(gòu)，大小小，區(qū)位屬性性等)城市間，一一個(gè)城市內(nèi)部部不同地理位位置房屋價(jià)格格基期價(jià)格的的變化相當(dāng)不不同買房不等于投投資HousingEconomics住房經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)房屋價(jià)格函數(shù)數(shù)P=Housingprice;房屋價(jià)格S=Vectorofstructurevariables;結(jié)構(gòu)矢量L =Vectoroflocational(access)variables區(qū)位矢量N=Vectorofneighborhoodvariables;鄰里矢量HousingEconomics住房經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)房屋價(jià)格函數(shù)數(shù)Whatisthemeaningofthispartialderivatives?Marginalprices偏導(dǎo)的意義？？邊際價(jià)格格Spatialdriftofcoefficients(marginalprices),implyingthatthecostofoneadditionalroomvariesacrosslocality.邊際價(jià)格的空空間“漂移”,如，加一個(gè)房房間的價(jià)格在在不同地方是是不一樣的HousingEconomics住房經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)房屋市場(chǎng)均衡衡(Rosen,1974)決定房屋的價(jià)價(jià)格影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)價(jià)格的外在因因素ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社會(huì)和和經(jīng)濟(jì)力量的的影響ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的的外在因素2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區(qū)域與社區(qū)分分析3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis鄰里單元價(jià)值值分析4.LandUsePlanning土地利用規(guī)劃劃PoliticalForcesinfluencingValue政治因素影響響價(jià)值Propertyrightsandownership財(cái)產(chǎn)權(quán)和所有有權(quán)ThefifthandFourteenthAmendmentsinUS美國第五和第第十四修正案案Federalfinancingaidsandfiscalpolicycontrols聯(lián)邦財(cái)政補(bǔ)助助和財(cái)政控制制Rateofinterests利率ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社會(huì)和和經(jīng)濟(jì)力量的的影響SocialForcesinfluencingValue社會(huì)因素影響響價(jià)值Populationgrowthrate(timelyandspatially)人口增長(zhǎng)率（（時(shí)間與空間間）Demographiccomposition(age,race,gender,income)人口構(gòu)成（年年齡、種族、、性別和收入入）Housingpreference(Housing/per1000people)住房偏好（住住房/千人）ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社會(huì)和和經(jīng)濟(jì)力量的的影響GeneralEconomicforcesInfluencingValue影響價(jià)值的經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素Grossnationalproduct國民生產(chǎn)總值值Percapitaincomeandrealwagelevels人均收入和實(shí)實(shí)際收入水平平Unemploymentasameasureoffullemployment.Correlationbetweenunemployment,propertyforeclosures,andpropertytaxdelinquencies失業(yè)率衡量就就業(yè)水平。失失業(yè)率，喪失失贖回權(quán)和拖拖欠財(cái)產(chǎn)稅的的相關(guān)性Personalsavingandinvestments個(gè)人存款和投投資Generalbusinessandrealestateactivity主要商業(yè)和地地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)StateandRegionalForcesInfluencingValue國家和區(qū)域因因素影響價(jià)值值Differentialsofpolicyandlaw政策和法律差差異Differentialsofeconomicprospective經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)景差異異etc.等等GovernmentToolsintheRealEstateMarket房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)中的政府府手段Analyzehowgovernmentactionsaffectpropertyvalueandmakeappropriatechanges分析政府行行為如何影影響房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)價(jià)值并促促其變化Monitormarketactivitytoqueueproposals,lesseningtheboom/bustcycle監(jiān)控市場(chǎng)行行為以排序序發(fā)展次序序，減緩漲漲跌循環(huán)Useeconomicdevelopmentpoliciestoattractusesthatfitwiththeregion’smasterplan使用經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)發(fā)展政策來來引導(dǎo)土地地使用，其其方式與與強(qiáng)度與區(qū)區(qū)域總體規(guī)規(guī)劃相一至至LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue地方政府和和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)價(jià)值A(chǔ)bilitytoprovideserviceaffectsvalue服務(wù)能力影影響價(jià)值Crimerate犯罪率Fireprotection火警預(yù)防Easeofdoingbusinessaffectsvalue從事商務(wù)活活動(dòng)的方便便性影響價(jià)價(jià)值Propertytaxrate房地產(chǎn)稅率率Regulatoryenvironment政策規(guī)范環(huán)環(huán)境Liquorlicense酒精飲料銷銷售許可Zoningrequirements分區(qū)要求LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue地方政府和和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)價(jià)值Externalitiesfromnearbyusesaffectvalue周圍環(huán)境等等外在因素素影響環(huán)境境Noisefromairports機(jī)場(chǎng)噪聲Pollutionfromfactories工廠污染MonitoringLandMarketActivity監(jiān)控土地市市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)Goalistopreventoverbuildingthatleadstovacancies,disinvestment,andblight目標(biāo)在于防防止建設(shè)過過度而導(dǎo)致致空置、蝕蝕本和經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)衰落Stillneedtoencouragecommercialdevelopmenttoincreasepropertytaxbaseandpromoteeconomicdevelopment仍需要鼓勵(lì)勵(lì)商業(yè)開發(fā)發(fā)以增加房房地產(chǎn)稅基基數(shù)和促進(jìn)進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展展MonitoringLandMarketActivity監(jiān)控土地市市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)PolicyTool:DevelopmentQueuing政策工具：：開發(fā)次序序Plannersacceptproposalsandgrantpermissiontobuildonlyifmarketconditionsindicatethatdemandcanabsorbthenewspace規(guī)劃師審查查規(guī)劃方案案，僅審批批那些市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)可以消化化的建設(shè)Plannersestimatemarketconditionsthroughtraditionalmeans–gatheringdataaboutrents,vacancyrates,currentconstruction,jobgrowth,andspendingpatterns規(guī)劃師采用用傳統(tǒng)方式式——收集租金數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)，空置置率，建設(shè)設(shè)現(xiàn)狀，就就業(yè)率增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)和消費(fèi)模模式——來估計(jì)市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)形勢(shì)TheRealEstateMarket房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)Immobility固定性Indestructibility不可破壞性性Non-homogeneity異質(zhì)性Propertydissimilarityimposesspecialmarketconditions房地產(chǎn)的差差異性形成成了特殊的的市場(chǎng)條件件2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區(qū)域和社區(qū)區(qū)分析TheRealEstateMarket房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)Durabilityofrealestatecausesmal-adjustmentsinbothsupplyanddemandonalocalmarketlevel房地產(chǎn)的持持續(xù)性導(dǎo)致致對(duì)地方市市場(chǎng)供求的的不當(dāng)調(diào)整整Studyingtheunderlyingforcescreatingsupplyanddemandforrealproperty研究形成房房地產(chǎn)供求求的潛在力力量2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區(qū)域和社區(qū)區(qū)分析CauseofUrbanization城市化的結(jié)結(jié)果CitySpatialFormandGrowth城市空間形形態(tài)和增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)RegionalAnalysis區(qū)域分析Regionalanalysistechniques:economicbaseanalysis,regionalinput-outputanalysis區(qū)域分析方方法：經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)分析析，區(qū)域投投入產(chǎn)出分分析RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區(qū)域和社區(qū)區(qū)分析PopulationTrendsandCharacteristics人口趨勢(shì)和和特征EconomicMeasuresofCommunityGrowth社區(qū)增長(zhǎng)的的經(jīng)濟(jì)量化化LandUsePattern土地利用模模式RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區(qū)域和社區(qū)區(qū)分析NeighborhoodDefined鄰里的定義義TheNeighborhoodAgeCycle鄰里單元的的周期3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis鄰里單元價(jià)價(jià)值分析臨街土地價(jià)價(jià)值時(shí)間成熟期成長(zhǎng)期衰退期向次級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)活動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)變變老化期NeighborhoodCharacteristics鄰里單元的的特征Physicalfeatures物質(zhì)特征Demographiccharacteristics人口特征Economicinfluences經(jīng)濟(jì)影響3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis鄰里單元價(jià)價(jià)值分析HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高與最好好使用原則則HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高與最好好使用原則則ConceptsPresentvalueAmortizationValue,capitalrate,andrent(Netoperatingincome—rent)Futurevalue(=0)Highestandbestuseanalysis概念現(xiàn)在價(jià)值分期償還價(jià)值，資金金率和租金金（凈收益益——租金）未來價(jià)值最高與最佳佳使用分析析HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高與最好好分析Thehighestandbestuseofvacantland閑置土地的的最高與最最佳使用Thehighestandbestuseoftheimprovedsite已開發(fā)土地地的最高與與最佳原則則HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高與最好好分析Fourcriteria:Physicalpossible:size,shape,terrain,capacity,availabilityofutilitiesetc.Legallypermissible:restriction,zoning,buildingcodes,environmentalregulationsandotherslaws.Financialfeasible:iftheprojectproduceanincomeorreturnequaltoorgreaterthantheamountneededtocovercosts.Maximallyproductive.四項(xiàng)條件：：物質(zhì)上可行行：尺寸，，形態(tài)，地地形，容量量，服務(wù)設(shè)設(shè)施等法律上允許許：限制，，分區(qū)，建建筑規(guī)范，，環(huán)境規(guī)則則和其他法法律經(jīng)濟(jì)上可行行：如果項(xiàng)項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)出等等于或大于于投入最大生產(chǎn)率率Apartment OfficeRetail公寓辦辦公零零售Costofconstruction$1,021,600$928,000 $817,300建設(shè)投資Effectivegrossincome有效毛收入入$265,000$200,000 $180,000Operatingexpenses-$135,000-$80,000-$69,000運(yùn)營費(fèi)用--------------------------------------------$130,000 $120,000$111,000Assuminga20year-yearlifeforthebuilding,thenPV=thecostofconstruction,FV=0,i=1,n=20.HighestandBestUseforaVacantLot閑置土地的的最高與最最佳使用ForApartment:NOItoland=NOIoftotal-buildingamortizationcost$10,000=$130,000 -$120,000SiteValue:V=R/I=10,000/0.10=$100,000Apartment OfficeRetailIncometobuilding@10%$120,000 $109,000 $96,000Incometosite$10,000 $11,000$15,000Indicatedsitevalue@10%$100,000$110,000$150,000SoRetailhasthehighestvalueforthesiteHighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)更新新的最最高與與最佳佳原則則Thealternativesare:Renovatetheexistingstores,spending$20,000Converttheexistingspacetooffices,spending$40,000Demolishandconstructanewbuilding不同方方案:更新現(xiàn)現(xiàn)存商商店，，花2萬美元元改成辦辦公，，花4萬拆除，，建設(shè)設(shè)新辦辦公樓樓HighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)更新新的最最高與與最佳佳原則則ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgAcquisitionprice$200,000$200,000$200,000Renovationcost$20,000$40,0000Constructioncost00$700,000Demolishcost00$30,000Totalcosts$220,000$240,000$930,000Theacquisitionpricewillbeallocated80percenttoimprovementand20percenttoland.PV=buildingcosts,FV=0,i=10,n=estimatedeconomiclife.ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgBuildingcost(80%)$160,000$160,000$0Newconstruction20,00040,000700,000TotalAllocatedto$180,000$200,000$700,000BuildingEconomiclife15yr15yr20yrReturntoBuilding$23,665$26,295$77,118@10%HighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)更新新的最最高與與最佳佳原則則ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgEffectivegrossincome$41,000$47,000$123,000Operatingexpenses-12,000-16,000-20,000--------------------------------Netoperatingincome$29,000$31,000$103,000Returntobuilding@10%-23,665-26,295-77,118------------------------