經營冒險的計劃課件

ProjectRiskManagement

or

Helpingteamstotakerisks

1ProjectRiskManagement

or

HelContents

Need/benefitsofRiskManagementDefinitionofRiskPhilosophyofRiskManagementIntegrationwithinIPMRiskQuickScanRiskDiagnosisMethodologyFinalthoughtsandadvice2ContentsNeed/benefitsofRiskWhyManageRisk?

“Inarapidlychangingworld,XXXneedstobequickertoanticipatechange,fastertoactandevenmoreenterprising.Currently,wearetooinward-lookingandpossiblyrisk-averse.Toaccelerategrowth,XXXmusthavethelookandfeelofanorganisationwithasingle-mindedpassionforwinning.”3WhyManageRisk? “Inarapidly"TherearesixmandatoriesthattheUECinsiststhateachandeveryOperatingCompanyabidesby(whichmaybesubjecttoAuditscrutiny):...Thereisaformalprocessformonitoringrisk."TheXXXIPMGuidelinesforSeniorManagement4"TherearesixmandatoriesthaWhatis‘Risk’?

InEnglishitisderivedfromtheearlyItalian‘risacore’-meaning‘todare’

OxfordEnglishDictionary:

‘Hazard,danger;exposuretomischanceorperil’‘Thechanceofhazardofcommercialloss…consideredthesourceofprofit’

5Whatis‘Risk’?InEnglishitSomepeople’sideaofRiskManagement“Zaphod...putonthesunglasses...TheywereadoublepairofJooJanta200SuperChromaticPerilSensitivesunglasses,whichhadbeenspeciallydesignedtohelppeopledeveloparelaxedattitudetodanger.Atthefirsthintoftroubletheyturntotallyblackandthuspreventyouseeinganythingthatmightharmyou.” DAdams,“TheRestaurantattheEndoftheUniverse”6Somepeople’sideaofRiskManTopicsforDiscussionWhatdoesriskmeantoyou?Whathappensifyouignorerisk?Isriskgoodorbad?7TopicsforDiscussionWhatdoesFoodforThought“Andthetroubleis,ifyoudon’triskanything,youriskevenmore.”EricaJong“Avoidingdangerisnosaferinthelongrunthanexposure.”HelenKeller“Ashipinharbourissafe,butthat’snotwhatshipsarebuiltfor.”WilliamShedd“Riskandrewardtravelsidebyside.Avoidoneandtheotherwillalsopassyouby.”Anon“Halfthefailuresinlifearisefrompullinginone’shorseasitisleaping.”JuliusHare"Youmiss100percentoftheshotsyounevertake."WayneGretzky8FoodforThought“AndthetroubMoreFoodforThought“Experienceisnotwhathappenstoyou,itiswhatyoudowithwhathappenstoyou.”

AldousHuxley9MoreFoodforThought“ExperienWhatlessonscanwelearnfromtherealexpertsinRiskManagement,TheInsuranceindustry?AnotherPerspective10WhatlessonscanwelearnfromDefinitionsinInsurance

IndustryRiskisuncertaintySpeculativerisk:ChanceofgainorlossPurerisk:Chanceoflossonly11DefinitionsinInsurance

InduLoss:NegativeimpactofaneventPeril:Causeofalosse.g.fire,windstorm,explosionHazard:Increaseschanceoflosse.g.oilyrags,unguardedmachinesDefinitionsinInsurance

Industry12Loss:NegativeimpactofanevRiskManagementin

Insurance“Reducerisk” Reduceuncertaintyofportfolio e.g.increasescale,diversify“Transferrisk” Contracts,e.g.reinsurance“Retainrisk” AcceptresidualuncertaintyThesearetheresponsibilitiesoftheunderwriter!13RiskManagementin

Insurance““Reducehazard” Reduceprobabilityoflosse.g.disposeoilyrags“Reduceloss” Reduceimpactoflosse.g.installsprinklersThesearetheresponsibilitiesofthelosscontrolengineer!RiskManagementin

Insurance14“Reducehazard”ThesearetherLessonsfromInsurance

IndustryGoodportfoliomanagementBalancedportfoliocanreduceriskGoodprojectmanagementMustconsiderallpotentialproblemsSpecialistscanreduceprobabilityoflossPlanningcanreduceimpactoflossRiskisNEVEReliminated15LessonsfromInsurance

IndustHowisallthistobeappliedtoInnovationProcessManagement?16Howisallthistobeapplied“Everythingshouldbeassimpleaspossible,butnotsimpler.”AlbertEinstein17“EverythingshouldbeassimplDefinitionsatProjectLevelRisk:probabilityoflossthroughtheoccurrenceofanundesiredeventProjectRisk:potentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailureandtermination(Wastedresourceand/orlostmarketopportunity)CorporateRisk:potentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoabrandorthecorporation18DefinitionsatProjectLevelRiIPMonRiskManagementBalanceeffortwithdegreeofriskLevel1:InitialRiskScreeningLevel2:RiskQuickScan(RQS)Level3:RiskDiagnosisMethodology(RDM)AllprojectsrequireaRiskManagementPlan19IPMonRiskManagementBalanceLevel1:

InitialRiskScreeningForrolloutprojectswithfamiliartechnologyandmaterialsonlyFoursimplequestionstoconsiderIfanyanswerisyes/uncertain,proceedtothenextlevelofanalysis-theRiskQuickScan.BydefinitionResearchProjectsSTARTassessmentatRiskQuickScan20Level1:

InitialRiskScreeninLevel2:

RiskQuickScanBroadoverviewofallperilsandhazardsQualitativeassessmentUsesconsistent,unambiguousdefinitions("anchoredscale")Ifcorporateriskishigh,proceedtonextlevelofanalysis(RDM)21Level2:

RiskQuickScanBroadLevel3:

RiskDiagnosisMethodologyThorough,in-depthanalysisUsestrainedRiskAnalysisFacilitatortoguideprojectteamIncludesindividualinterviews,detailedquestionnaire,plenarysessiontodebateissuesanddevelopactionplans22Level3:

RiskDiagnosisMethodComparisonofRALevels23ComparisonofRALevels23RiskManagementPlan:

RequiredforLevels2&3TrackriskissuesandactionsHelpteamsandgatekeepersIncorporatedintoGatedocument24RiskManagementPlan:

RequireTheRiskQuickScan(RQS)25TheRiskQuickScan25Who/whatshouldbe

presentatanRQSProjectLeaderProjectBriefProjectteamExpertadviceRQSproformaRQSanchoredscalesFacilitator?26Who/whatshouldbe

presentatWhentodoanRQSMandatorythattheteamcompleteanRQSandactionplanbeforetheprojectcharterisgranted.Reviewedatsubsequentgatesandmilestones.Reviewedafteranysubstantialchangeintheproject.

“Doestheprojectnowrequireafull(RDM)analysis?”TheRQSmaybenefitfromfacilitationbutthisisnotessential.27WhentodoanRQSMandatorythaWhatvaluedoesfacilitationaddtoRQS?GetsTeamtoexamineissuesNOTjusttickboxesGetteamtore-examineassumptionsAdviseonbestpractice,specialistcontactsLearnfromotherprojectsinsame/differentCategoryGetallteammemberstocontribute28WhatvaluedoesGetsTeamtoe

ProjectRiskPotentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailure/termination(wastedresourceand/orlostmarketopportunity)1.ConsumerNeed2.Scientific/TechnicalFeasibility3.TechnicalComplexity4.Technical/ProfessionalSkills5.EvaluationMethods6.ExternalExpertise/Technology7.ExternalCredibilityandSupport8.ProprietaryPosition9.FreedomtoUse10.Manufacturing&SupplyChain Capability11.MaterialSupply12.RegulatoryIssues13.UnileverSafetyClearance14.EnvironmentalSafety15.Distribution/ChannelstoMarket16.CompetitorResponse17.KeyDecisionPointsIdentified18.AvailabilityofResources19.AccountabilitiesAgreed29ProjectRisk1.ConsumerNeedCorporateRiskPotentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoaUnileverbrandorthecorporation1.Reputation2.VulnerabilitytoChallenge3.StrategicImportance4.FinancialTargets5.InvestmentRiskWhyiscorporateriskimportant?30CorporateRisk1.ReputationWhExampleAnchoredScale

Magnitudeofresponsefrom1-531ExampleAnchoredScale MagnituHowtoUsetheScalesTheanchorpointsareintendedtoallowteamstogaugethemagnitudeofthisparticularriskfortheirproject.Someteamsmayneedtousearangeratherthanonefigure32HowtoUsetheScalesTheanchoHowtoUsetheScales

IdentifyingtheISSUESforaprojectismoreimportantthantheexactrating(remembertheratingisqualitative).Theratingcanbedividedinto:

1,2 Lowrisk-stillsomeissueswhichcanbeaddressed3,4,5 Mediumtohighrisk-issueshereMUSTbeactively managed33HowtoUsetheScales

IdentifRQS-spreadofscores

-questionstoask

Isthisahighriskproject?Canwealonemanagetherisk?Who/whatextradoweneed?Whatdowewishtoputinthegatedocument?IfanyCorporateRiskfactoris3orabovethenanRDMisindicatedAteamcanalsorequestanRDM34RQS-spreadofscores

-quesRiskManagementPlan4possibleresponsestoRiskRETAINiflowriskexposureelse..AVOID-ifuncontrollableelse…REDUCE-takeactionstocontrolor…TRANSFER(impactaswellasactions)DecideonactionplansWHOdoesWHATbyWHENPlanmustbedynamic

“Noplansurvivescontactwiththeenemy”WWIISoldier35RiskManagementPlan4possibleIfanRDMis

chosen/indicatedDiscusswithseniormembersofyourmanagementGatekeepernotifiedGatekeepernotifiesCategorySVPProjectminutedatnextInternationalCategoryBoardmeeting36IfanRDMis

chosen/indicatedTheRiskDiagnosisMethodology(RDM)37TheRiskDiagnosisMethodologyTheRDMsurface&articulateallrisksassessrisksobjectivelyprioritiserisks&risk-reducingactions1.2.3.

decidewhoshouldbeinvolvedtriggerlistinterviewscaptureriskissues

questionnairerisktopographysoftware

plenaryprojectre-plan?38TheRDMsurface&assessprioritiRDMInterviewingEthos

ofRiskFacilitatorsKnowledgegap-fillingConfidentialityNon-attributablerecordsSafedocumenthandlingGuardianof“l(fā)onevoice”Notproblemsolving39RDMInterviewingEthos

ofRisk...AftertheInterviews

-CrystallisingtheIssues(byfacilitators)QuestionnaireCollationofriskissuesTranslationintoPOSITIVERISKSTATEMENTSTeammembersscoreissues,facilitatorsanalysetheresults40...AftertheInterviews

-CrPlenarySession

-Takingdecisionsandownership

SelecthighestriskissuestobediscussedfordecisionsandactionplanningConstructagendawithPL/PlenaryChairman-whatiswantedDecidewithPLwhoshouldbepresent,inadditiontotheteam41PlenarySession

-TakingdecAddedvalueofRDMTeamREALLYthinkabouttheprojectandwhattheyshoulddotoensuresuccessThoroughidentificationofallforeseeablerisksIncreasedteamandstakeholdercommitmentIncreasedteamconfidenceinabilitytocreatesuccess,improvedteamdynamics42AddedvalueofRDMTeamREALLYCommentsfromateam“Ithasclarifiedthesituationforalltheteammembersandallowedustoputinplacerealisticscenarios.”“Thoughttheconfidentialityhelpedtobebrutallyhonestandcritical,bothofownareaandothers.”“Itisathoughtprovokingexerciseanddoesidentifyotherpeople’sconcernsandpointsofview.”“Iwouldrecommendtheprocesstoothermajorprojects,becauseintheendIthinksitbringsconfidencetoputtheissuesonthetableanddecidehowtosolvethem.”“Veryuseful.Forcesonetoarticulatethingsfeltbutnotyetclarified.Goodstructuremakesitverycomprehensiveandworthwhile”43Commentsfromateam“IthasclOtherRiskManagementtoolsTriggerlistRiskWorkshopCompetitorChallengeThoroughprojectplanningDecisionSupport44OtherRiskManagementtoolsTriFinalMessage

Toinnovatesuccessfullyyouneedtotakerisksunderstandwhatthoserisksaremanagewhatyoucanstayalerttochangesaskforhelp(experts/peers/RMfacilitators)Thereisaformalsystemtohelpyou45FinalMessageToinnovatesuccThebetteryoumanageyourrisks-thebiggerthemountainsyoucanclimb!46ThebetteryoumanageyourrisProjectRiskManagement

or

Helpingteamstotakerisks

47ProjectRiskManagement

or

HelContents

Need/benefitsofRiskManagementDefinitionofRiskPhilosophyofRiskManagementIntegrationwithinIPMRiskQuickScanRiskDiagnosisMethodologyFinalthoughtsandadvice48ContentsNeed/benefitsofRiskWhyManageRisk?

“Inarapidlychangingworld,XXXneedstobequickertoanticipatechange,fastertoactandevenmoreenterprising.Currently,wearetooinward-lookingandpossiblyrisk-averse.Toaccelerategrowth,XXXmusthavethelookandfeelofanorganisationwithasingle-mindedpassionforwinning.”49WhyManageRisk? “Inarapidly"TherearesixmandatoriesthattheUECinsiststhateachandeveryOperatingCompanyabidesby(whichmaybesubjecttoAuditscrutiny):...Thereisaformalprocessformonitoringrisk."TheXXXIPMGuidelinesforSeniorManagement50"TherearesixmandatoriesthaWhatis‘Risk’?

InEnglishitisderivedfromtheearlyItalian‘risacore’-meaning‘todare’

OxfordEnglishDictionary:

‘Hazard,danger;exposuretomischanceorperil’‘Thechanceofhazardofcommercialloss…consideredthesourceofprofit’

51Whatis‘Risk’?InEnglishitSomepeople’sideaofRiskManagement“Zaphod...putonthesunglasses...TheywereadoublepairofJooJanta200SuperChromaticPerilSensitivesunglasses,whichhadbeenspeciallydesignedtohelppeopledeveloparelaxedattitudetodanger.Atthefirsthintoftroubletheyturntotallyblackandthuspreventyouseeinganythingthatmightharmyou.” DAdams,“TheRestaurantattheEndoftheUniverse”52Somepeople’sideaofRiskManTopicsforDiscussionWhatdoesriskmeantoyou?Whathappensifyouignorerisk?Isriskgoodorbad?53TopicsforDiscussionWhatdoesFoodforThought“Andthetroubleis,ifyoudon’triskanything,youriskevenmore.”EricaJong“Avoidingdangerisnosaferinthelongrunthanexposure.”HelenKeller“Ashipinharbourissafe,butthat’snotwhatshipsarebuiltfor.”WilliamShedd“Riskandrewardtravelsidebyside.Avoidoneandtheotherwillalsopassyouby.”Anon“Halfthefailuresinlifearisefrompullinginone’shorseasitisleaping.”JuliusHare"Youmiss100percentoftheshotsyounevertake."WayneGretzky54FoodforThought“AndthetroubMoreFoodforThought“Experienceisnotwhathappenstoyou,itiswhatyoudowithwhathappenstoyou.”

AldousHuxley55MoreFoodforThought“ExperienWhatlessonscanwelearnfromtherealexpertsinRiskManagement,TheInsuranceindustry?AnotherPerspective56WhatlessonscanwelearnfromDefinitionsinInsurance

IndustryRiskisuncertaintySpeculativerisk:ChanceofgainorlossPurerisk:Chanceoflossonly57DefinitionsinInsurance

InduLoss:NegativeimpactofaneventPeril:Causeofalosse.g.fire,windstorm,explosionHazard:Increaseschanceoflosse.g.oilyrags,unguardedmachinesDefinitionsinInsurance

Industry58Loss:NegativeimpactofanevRiskManagementin

Insurance“Reducerisk” Reduceuncertaintyofportfolio e.g.increasescale,diversify“Transferrisk” Contracts,e.g.reinsurance“Retainrisk” AcceptresidualuncertaintyThesearetheresponsibilitiesoftheunderwriter!59RiskManagementin

Insurance““Reducehazard” Reduceprobabilityoflosse.g.disposeoilyrags“Reduceloss” Reduceimpactoflosse.g.installsprinklersThesearetheresponsibilitiesofthelosscontrolengineer!RiskManagementin

Insurance60“Reducehazard”ThesearetherLessonsfromInsurance

IndustryGoodportfoliomanagementBalancedportfoliocanreduceriskGoodprojectmanagementMustconsiderallpotentialproblemsSpecialistscanreduceprobabilityoflossPlanningcanreduceimpactoflossRiskisNEVEReliminated61LessonsfromInsurance

IndustHowisallthistobeappliedtoInnovationProcessManagement?62Howisallthistobeapplied“Everythingshouldbeassimpleaspossible,butnotsimpler.”AlbertEinstein63“EverythingshouldbeassimplDefinitionsatProjectLevelRisk:probabilityoflossthroughtheoccurrenceofanundesiredeventProjectRisk:potentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailureandtermination(Wastedresourceand/orlostmarketopportunity)CorporateRisk:potentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoabrandorthecorporation64DefinitionsatProjectLevelRiIPMonRiskManagementBalanceeffortwithdegreeofriskLevel1:InitialRiskScreeningLevel2:RiskQuickScan(RQS)Level3:RiskDiagnosisMethodology(RDM)AllprojectsrequireaRiskManagementPlan65IPMonRiskManagementBalanceLevel1:

InitialRiskScreeningForrolloutprojectswithfamiliartechnologyandmaterialsonlyFoursimplequestionstoconsiderIfanyanswerisyes/uncertain,proceedtothenextlevelofanalysis-theRiskQuickScan.BydefinitionResearchProjectsSTARTassessmentatRiskQuickScan66Level1:

InitialRiskScreeninLevel2:

RiskQuickScanBroadoverviewofallperilsandhazardsQualitativeassessmentUsesconsistent,unambiguousdefinitions("anchoredscale")Ifcorporateriskishigh,proceedtonextlevelofanalysis(RDM)67Level2:

RiskQuickScanBroadLevel3:

RiskDiagnosisMethodologyThorough,in-depthanalysisUsestrainedRiskAnalysisFacilitatortoguideprojectteamIncludesindividualinterviews,detailedquestionnaire,plenarysessiontodebateissuesanddevelopactionplans68Level3:

RiskDiagnosisMethodComparisonofRALevels69ComparisonofRALevels23RiskManagementPlan:

RequiredforLevels2&3TrackriskissuesandactionsHelpteamsandgatekeepersIncorporatedintoGatedocument70RiskManagementPlan:

RequireTheRiskQuickScan(RQS)71TheRiskQuickScan25Who/whatshouldbe

presentatanRQSProjectLeaderProjectBriefProjectteamExpertadviceRQSproformaRQSanchoredscalesFacilitator?72Who/whatshouldbe

presentatWhentodoanRQSMandatorythattheteamcompleteanRQSandactionplanbeforetheprojectcharterisgranted.Reviewedatsubsequentgatesandmilestones.Reviewedafteranysubstantialchangeintheproject.

“Doestheprojectnowrequireafull(RDM)analysis?”TheRQSmaybenefitfromfacilitationbutthisisnotessential.73WhentodoanRQSMandatorythaWhatvaluedoesfacilitationaddtoRQS?GetsTeamtoexamineissuesNOTjusttickboxesGetteamtore-examineassumptionsAdviseonbestpractice,specialistcontactsLearnfromotherprojectsinsame/differentCategoryGetallteammemberstocontribute74WhatvaluedoesGetsTeamtoe

ProjectRiskPotentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailure/termination(wastedresourceand/orlostmarketopportunity)1.ConsumerNeed2.Scientific/TechnicalFeasibility3.TechnicalComplexity4.Technical/ProfessionalSkills5.EvaluationMethods6.ExternalExpertise/Technology7.ExternalCredibilityandSupport8.ProprietaryPosition9.FreedomtoUse10.Manufacturing&SupplyChain Capability11.MaterialSupply12.RegulatoryIssues13.UnileverSafetyClearance14.EnvironmentalSafety15.Distribution/ChannelstoMarket16.CompetitorResponse17.KeyDecisionPointsIdentified18.AvailabilityofResources19.AccountabilitiesAgreed75ProjectRisk1.ConsumerNeedCorporateRiskPotentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoaUnileverbrandorthecorporation1.Reputation2.VulnerabilitytoChallenge3.StrategicImportance4.FinancialTargets5.InvestmentRiskWhyiscorporateriskimportant?76CorporateRisk1.ReputationWhExampleAnchoredScale

Magnitudeofresponsefrom1-577ExampleAnchoredScale MagnituHowtoUsetheScalesTheanchorpointsareintendedtoallowteamstogaugethemagnitudeofthisparticularriskfortheirproject.Someteamsmayneedtousearangeratherthanonefigure78HowtoUsetheScalesTheanchoHowtoUsetheScales

IdentifyingtheISSUESforaprojectismoreimportantthantheexactrating(remembertheratingisqualitative).Theratingcanbedividedinto:

1,2 Lowrisk-stillsomeissueswhichcanbeaddressed3,4,5 Mediumtohighrisk-issueshereMUSTbeactively managed79HowtoUsetheScales

IdentifRQS-spreadofscores

-questionstoask

Isthisahighriskproject?Canwealonemanagetherisk?Who/whatextradoweneed?Whatdowewishtoputinthegatedocument?IfanyCorporateRiskfactoris3orabovethenanRDMisindicatedAteamcanalsorequestanRDM80RQS-spreadofscores

-quesRiskManagementPlan4possibleresponsestoRiskRETAINiflowriskexposureelse..AVOID-ifuncontrollableelse…REDUCE-takeactionstocontrolor…TRANSFER(impactaswellasactions)DecideonactionplansWHOdoesWHATbyWHENPlanmustbedynamic

“Noplansurvivescontactwiththeenemy”WWIISoldier81RiskManagementPlan4possibleIfanRDMis

chosen/indicatedDiscusswithseniormembersofyourmanagementGatekeepernotifiedGatekeepernotifiesCategorySVPProjectminutedatnextInternationalCategoryBoardmeeting82IfanRDMis

chosen/indicatedTheRiskDiagnosisMethodology(RDM)83TheRiskDiagnosisMethodologyTheRDMsurface&articulateallrisksassessrisksobjectivelyprioritiserisks&risk-reducingactions1.2.3.

decidewhoshouldbeinvolvedtriggerlisti