演講分論壇burdensh老師

IPCC第五次評(píng)估報(bào)告第三工作組報(bào)告關(guān)鍵結(jié)論以及對(duì)中國(guó)的含義姜克雋能源研究所kjiang@

AR5WGIIIOutline1.IntroductoryChapter22.IntegratedRiskandUncertaintyAssessmentof

ClimateChangeResponsePolicies3.Social,EconomicandEthicalConceptsandMethods4.SustainableDevelopmentandEquity5.Drivers,TrendsandMitigation6.AssessingTransformationPathways7.EnergySystems8.Transport9.Buildings10.Industry11.Agriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUse(AFOLU)12.HumanSettlements,InfrastructureandSpatialPlanning13.InternationalCooperation:AgreementsandInstruments14.RegionalDevelopmentandCooperation15.NationalandSub-nationalPoliciesandInstitutions16.Cross-cuttingInvestmentandFinanceIssuesIV:Assessmentof

Policies,Institutions

andFinanceIII:Pathwaysfor

Mitigating

ClimateChangeII:FramingIssuesI:Introduction與其它章節(jié)的關(guān)聯(lián)Top-DownApproach(Chapter6)SectoralChapterSectoralChapterSectoralChapterSectoralChapter13.InternationalCooperation:AgreementsandInstrumentsRegionalDevelopmentandCooperation16.Cross-cuttingInvestmentandFinanceIssues2.IntegratedRiskandUncertaintyAssessmentof

ClimateChangeResponsePolicies3.Social,EconomicandEthicalConceptsandMethods4.SustainableDevelopmentandEquityOtherchapters第六章要答復(fù)的主要問(wèn)題

KeyissuestobeansweredbyCH6Weexpecttousethefollowingquestionsasguidelinesforthechoiceofhowtoallocatepreciouspages.Whichlong-termstabilizationlevelsare“feasible”?哪一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定水平是”可行的”Whatarethepotentialcharacteristicsorimplications–forexample,emissions,costs,energysystemspathways,landusepatterns,co-benefits,andrisks–oftransformationpathwaysthatmightleadtoparticularlong-termstabilizationlevels?可能的因素或者含義是什么?如排放、成本、能源體系、土地利用模式、共生效益，以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Whatactionstodayareconsistentwithmeetingparticularlong-termstabilizationlevels?今天的行動(dòng)和長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)如何一致起來(lái)？Delayingmitigationincreasesthedifficultyandnarrowstheoptionsforlimitingwarmingto2°C.5Table?6.1:Categoriesofscenariosandtheapproachtocomparingacrossscenarioswithdifferentlong-termgoals.

RadiativeforcingCO2-eqConcCO2budget(2000-2100)RCPNoofscenarios2100CO2conc.Indicative2100tempabovepre-industrialLikelihoodofstayingbelow

W/m2PpmGtCO2

NumberPpmoCabovepi1.52Cat0.<2.3<425<1050Cat1.2.3-3425-4851050-1550RCP2.6140375-4201.3-1.7Cat2.3-3.5485-5351550-2000

48400-4501.7-2.2Cat3.3.5-4535-5852000-2500

85450-4952.0-2.4Cat4.4-5585-7102500-3500RCP4.522490-5902.3-3.0Cat5.5-6.8710-10003500-5500RCP.678630-7603.0-4.0Cat6.>6.8->1000->5500-RCP8.536>800>4Currenttable.Somevarianttobeincludedinfinaldraft.Foreachcategory,wewouldlikepresenttheinformationfornon-overshoot(blackfont)andpeak(redfont)scenarios)Figure2.EmissionallowancesbyallocationcategoryforCat1,i.e.425-475ppmCO2e,in2030relativeto2010emissions(min,20thpercentile,80thpercentile,max).Numberofstudiesinbrackets.GHGemissions(allgasesandsectors)inGtCO2ein1990and2010wereOECD9013.4,14.2,EIT8.4,5.6,ASIA10.7,19.9,MAF3.0,6.2,LAM3.3,3.8.Figure2.EmissionallowancesbyallocationcategoryforCat1,i.e.425-475ppmCO2e,in2030relativeto2010emissions(min,20thpercentile,80thpercentile,max).Numberofstudiesinbrackets.GHGemissions(allgasesandsectors)inGtCO2ein1990and2010wereOECD9013.4,14.2,EIT8.4,5.6,ASIA10.7,19.9,MAF3.0,6.2,LAM3.3,3.8.Figure3.Emissionallowancesforvariousconcentrationlevelsin2050relativeto2010emissions(min,20thpercentile,80thpercentile,max).

Numberofstudiesinbrackets.GHGemissions(allgasesandsectors)inGtCO2ein1990and2010wereOECD9013.4,14.2,EIT8.4,5.6,ASIA10.7,19.9,MAF3.0,6.2,LAM3.3,3.8Figure3.Emissionallowancesforvariousconcentrationlevelsin2050relativeto2010emissions(min,20thpercentile,80thpercentile,max).

Numberofstudiesinbrackets.GHGemissions(allgasesandsectors)inGtCO2ein1990and2010wereOECD9013.4,14.2,EIT8.4,5.6,ASIA10.7,19.9,MAF3.0,6.2,LAM3.3,3.8全球能源活動(dòng)和水泥生產(chǎn)CO2排放量GlobalCO2emissionfromenergyandcementmanufacture2020emission全球能源活動(dòng)和水泥生產(chǎn)CO2排放量GlobalCO2emissionfromenergyandcementmanufacture強(qiáng)化低碳情景：2050年回到2005年排放水平上，2度情景，2020年之后發(fā)生變化，2025年之前達(dá)到峰值。目前正在利用模型研究2度情景的可行性什么時(shí)