德勤：全球基礎設施的未來 -The future of global infrastructure - A survey of infrastructure trends

Thefutureofglobalinfrastructureghtsankandonermacrosstheglobe1multimodaltransportation3nativetransportationberattacksicadforrenewables12rendsEndnotes17newthinkingaboutinfrastructureGovernmentsaroundtheworldareinvestingnewthinkingaboutinfrastructureGovernmentsaroundtheworldareinvestingininfrastructuretodealwiththisnewrealityandtohelpjump-starttherecovery(seefigure1).TheseinfrastructurefundsarecomingatatimewhenseverallargertrendsarechangingthewaywethinkinfrastructureEconomicstimulusforapostpandemicrebuild:Thepandemicactedlikeatime-machineintothefuture,deliveringmassivechangesfasterthanimaginableGovernmentsareinvestinginthisneweconomy,whichwillrequirenew—anddifferent—infrastructure.Focusonenvironmentalsustainability:Whilegreeninfrastructurehasbeenontheradarforawhile,manygovernmentsaroundtheworldareincreasingcommitmenttoenvironmentalprojects.Emphasisongreatersocialequity:Thereisastrongfocusonensuringthatnewinfrastructuremeetstheneedsofallpeople.Technology:Thepandemicdemonstratedtheever-increasingimportanceoftechnologyFrombroadbandaccesstosmartinfrastructure,technologyandcybersecurityaretransforminginfrastructurepriorities.sereJulyWhatdoesthefutureholdforinfrastructuregloballylistsT rethanicofficialsandinfrastructureexecutivesworldwideTheseniorofficialsintheareaofinfrastructurerepresentinggovernments,privatecompanies,andnonprofitsincludingacademics(figure2).Wesurveyedpublicofficialsfromnational(17%),state(31%),andlocal(52%)governments,withagreaterweightingonstateandlocalgovernmentssincetheyaremoreresponsiblefortheactualexecutionofinfrastructureOursurveyrespondentsalsosharedtheircommentsandinsightswithus,andsomeoftheirquoteswillbesharedthroughouttheAsia/Paci?cAsia/Paci?cLatinAmericaAsia/Paci?cAsia/Paci?cLatinAmericaimpactsfromthepandemic—includinghigherdemandformultimodaltransportationThepandemicdisruptedeverything.Whatremainstobeseeniswhichchangeswillbetransientandwhichoneswillbemoreenduring.Importantlyanoverwhelmingmajorityofoursurveyrespondents(98%)thatthepandemicwillhavesignificantlastingimpactoninfrastructureHowever,therewasdisagreementaboutwhatthatimpactwillbe.ThebiggestimpactsexpectedbythosesurveyedarehigherdemandformultimodaltransportationandbroadbandfigureInEuropedemandformultimodaltransportationisexpectedtobethelargestwithalmost60%ofrespondentssayingtherewillbegreaterdemand.Morethanonethirdofrespondentsalsobelievethattherewillbemorepeopleworkingfromhomeandgreateruseoftelemedicine.Interestingly,greateruseofonlinemodesofworkingoraccessingservicesarenotexpectedtotranslatetowhereandhowpeoplelive.Only4%ofrespondentsbelievethattherewillbefewerpeoplelivingincitiesandonly19%believethattherewillbemoredemandforlargerresidentialunits.ctureoverthenextthreeyearsEurope LatinAmericaNorthAmericape32%Asia/Paci?cpe32%Asia/Paci?cAsia/Paci?c 4%MiddleEast/Africa 2%NorthAmerica4Stepstoachievepostpandemicagendas(increasealittleorincreaseaStepstoachievepostpandemicagendas(increasealittleorincreasealot)tsexpectinfrastructuretobecomemoredigitalrecybersecureandmoreecofriendlyinthepostpandemiceraOurrespondentssentseveralngsignalsAbigcommitmenttodigital:Respondentsindicatedthatdigitalinvestmentswillbeoneofgovernments’toppriorities.Almost84%ofespondentsinAsiaPacificAPexpectdigitalinfrastructureinvestmentstoincrease,thehighestpercentageofanyregion.Focusoncybersecurity:Moredigitalactivitybringsmorecybercrime.Morethanthreequartersofrespondentsexpectedgreaterfocusondatasecurityoverthenextthreeyears.Climatefriendlyinfrastructure:Theenvironmentalsteprespondentsmostexpectisexpansioninelectricvehicleinfrastructurefollowedbyprovisionofincentivesforrenewableenergy.Governmentsareexpectedtotakevariousstepsoverthenextthreeyearstoachievetheirpostpandemicsocial,environmental,andeconomicinfrastructureagendas.Foreachstepbelow,doyouexpectthegovernmenttoincreaseitseffortsalot,increasealittle,stayaboutthesame,decreasealittle,ordecreasealot?nrespondentsexpectfromthepandemicwillbegreaterdemandformultimodalrespondentsexpectfromthepandemicwillbegreaterdemandformultimodaltransportationRespondentsdidnotexpectpeopletoleavecitiesbutrathertolookforbetterwaystoliveandtravelwithincities.Helsinkihasbeenatrendsetterinthisarea.Ithasbeenheavilyfocusingontheimprovementofpublictransportandfacilitiesforcycling,walking,andotheralternativewaysofmobilitytoreducetheusageofcars.Thereisalsoaserviceavailablefor“mobilityondemand”bymeshingtogetherarangeoftransportationoptionsincludingbuses,bikes,anddriverlesscarsononeplatformthatcanbeusedtoorderanytripthroughasmartphone.1Oursurveysuggeststhatotherregionsmightbeheadinginthisdirection—about%ofrespondentsgloballysaidthattheyplantoinvestinurbanplacesforwalking,cycling,socializing,andeating.—UKcityofficial3%AllDevelopedcountriesLow-andmiddle-incomecountriesAllDevelopedcountriesLow-andmiddle-incomecountrieschnologypicksexpectedtoreshapeinfrastructureartificialintelligence(AI),cloudcomputing,andcybersecurity.Thesetechnologychoiceshighlighttheshiftfrompurelyphysicalinfrastructuretoahybridofphysicalanddigital.Frompowergridstoroads,alsomeansthatitwilllikelyholdmorepersonaldataandbemorevulnerabletocybercrime.TheincreasinguseofAI,cloud,anddigitaltechnologiesmeanspublichouldstrengthentheirprivacyandethicaluseofdataprotocolsInUnitedStatesatleasteightstateshaveappointedchiefprivacyofficersGeorgiabecamethefirststatetonameachiefcloudofficer—Citymanager,UKcitycostly.FromSanFrancisco’sMUNIlightrailcostly.FromSanFrancisco’sMUNIlightrailsystemin2016,3totheshutdownoftheColonialPipelinein1,4attacksonessentialinfrastructurearerightlyabigconcernformanypublicofficials.Eveninthemosteconomicallyadvancedcountries,aboutoneinverespondentstoldusinfrastructureisnotadequatelyprotectedfromcyberattacks.orITdepartmentofficialMiddleEastGlobalaverage:30%cturegovernmentsoverseethebuildingofinfrastructuretochangemuch—meaninggovernmentsoverseethebuildingofinfrastructuretochangemuch—meaningsomeoftheexecutionchallengesaroundinfrastructureprojectsarelikelytocontinue.lexregulationsandassociatedcourtchallengescansignificantlyincreasethecostsandcreatelongdelaysintheexecutionofinfrastructureprojectsYetlessthan8%respondentsacrossregionssaidtheyexpectregulationstobeloosenedalottomakeiteasiertoexecuteonprojects.lyfewrespondentsexpectsignificantchangestocontractingmethodsorasubstantialincreaseintheinvolvementofthepublicininfrastructuredecisions.Governmentsareexpectedtotakevariousstepsoverthenextthreeyearstoachievetheirpostpandemicsocial,environmental,andeconomicinfrastructureagendas.Foreachstepbelow,doyouexpectthegovernmenttoincreaseitseffortsalot,increasealittle,stayaboutthesame,decreasealittle,ordecreasealot?AmericaAfricaNorthAmerica899investmentsneededtobringinfrastructuretoagoodcondition—alargeproportionofworldinfrastructure.investmentsneededtobringinfrastructuretoagoodcondition—alargeproportionofworldinfrastructure.MiddleEast/Africahadthehighestpercentageofrespondentsreportinginvestmentbacklogs.Investmentbacklogscancorrodeexistingassetsleadingtohighermaintenancecostsandhigherchancesofinfrastructurefailure.Whilenewinfrastructureprojectstendtogarnermuchmediaattention,governmentsshouldprioritizeandpublicizeinfrastructuremaintenanceeffortsthatcanaluableinfrastructureassetsandleadtohigherefficiencybyavoidingfuturecosts.Almost50%ofrespondentsinLatinAmericaandMiddleEast/AfricasaidthepublicsectorisnotmeetingmoderninfrastructureneedscomparedwithofrespondentsinAPandlessthan20%ofrespondentsinEuropeandNorthAmerica.onsthatashortageoftalentwouldbethebiggestobstaclethatashortageoftalentwouldbethebiggestobstacletoimplementinginfrastructureprojectsmorethanbudgetconstraintsorregulatorychallenges.Whenthinkingofinfrastructuretalent,itiseasytothinkofconstructionworkersButtoday’sinfrastructureencompassesmanymoreelementswhichrequireafarmorediverserangeofskills.Engineeringandcyberskillscouldincreasinglyplayacriticalroleinbuildinginfrastructure.Budgetconstraintsanddataprivacyrisksarealsobigchallengestoimplementinginfrastructureprojectssurveyrespondentsindicated.RecenteventsincludingtheColonialPipelinehackintheUnitedStates,havehighlightedsecurityvulnerabilitiesofinfrastructure.Anothershortagethatmightimpactinfrastructureconstruction?Supplies.Supplychaincostsandavailabilityofmaterials(30%)werebothcitedbythosesurveyedassignificantpotentialobstacles.mpanyOverthenextthreeyears,whatdoyouexpecttobethegreatestobstaclesinimplementingtheinfrastructureprojectsthatyouareinvolvedin?electuptove 40%MiddleEast/Africa NorthAmerica26%40%MiddleEast/Africa NorthAmerica26%Asia/Paci?c Asia/Paci?cLatinAmerica/MiddleLatinAmerica/MiddleEast30%30%MiddleEast/AfricaAsia/Paci?c,Asia/Paci?c,LatinAmerica5%MiddleEast/AfricaignificantstepswillbetakentomeetvariousequitygoalsignificantstepswillbetakentomeetvariousequitygoalsForespondentsdonotseeasignificantchangeinsocialimpactassessmentsGloballyjust14%ofrespondentsonaverageacrossregionssaidthatsocialimpactassessmentswillincreasealot,35%saiditwillincreasealittle,and49%expectittostaythesame.dentsdontexpectsignificantchangestoequitableaccesstomasstransiteitherJust15%onaverageexpecteffortstoprovideequitableaccesstomasstransittoincreasealot,41%saiditwillincreasealittle,and40%conomicinfrastructureagendasNorthAmericaProvideequitableaccesstoreliablemasstransitandotherservicesinunderservedareas(increasealot)expectittossexpectingsizableincreasesinincentivesforrenewableswithmorethanexpectingsizableincreasesinincentivesforrenewableswithmorethan3%expectingthatareatoincreasealotineachregion:onaverage37%acrossregionsexpecttaxcreditstoincreasealot.However,oursurveyindicatesthatotheractionsaredeemedlesslikely.Forexamplealthoughrespondentsexpectdemandformultimodaltransportationtoincreaseseefiguretheyexpectalimitedresponsefromgovernmentinthisarea.Just13%inNorthAmericaand17%inMiddleEast/Africaexpectasignificantshiftaheadintermsofprioritizingmixedtransportationmodes(suchastraintobustobike).OnaverageonlyofrespondentsacrossregionsexpecteffortstorporateenvironmentalbenefitmetricsintoinvestmentselectiontoincreasealotHoweversomebanksareconsideringenvironmentalcompliancewhenmakinglendingdecisions—whichmeansenvironmentallysustainableprojectsmayhaveaneasiertimeaccessingprivatecapital.—Seniorofficial,departmentofenergy/environment,CanadianprovinceGovernmentsareexpectedtotakevariousstepsoverthenextthreeyearstoachievetheirpostpandemicsocial,environmental,andeconomicinfrastructureagendas.Foreachstepbelow,doyouexpectthegovernmenttoincreaseitseffortsalot,increasealittle,stayaboutthesame,decreasealittle,ordecreasealot?AmericaAfricaNorthAmericatransportationmodestoessmentPrivatizationofassetsPrivatizationofassetsPerformance-basedcontractingPrivatizationofassetsPrivatizationofassetsPerformance-basedcontractingPrivatizationofassetsMultilateralfundingPrivatizationofassetsPerformance-basedcontractingMultilateralfundingalgovernmentfundingareleadingglobaltrendsanswerseemstobeMoreofeverything”Respondentsexpectawidearrayoffundingapproachestoincreaseinthenextthreeyears.Theapproachmostexpectedtoincreaseacrosstheglobe,isprivatizationofassets.nancingtechniquesexpectedtoriseincludeperformancebasedcontracting,userfees,andmultilateralanddevelopmentfunding.verPPrivatizationofassetsPerformancePerformance-basedcontractingItpromptednewbehaviorsincludingasubstitutionofonlineinteractioninsteadofinItpromptednewbehaviorsincludingasubstitutionofonlineinteractioninsteadofinpersonRemotework,telehealth,andonlineeducationareimpactinginfrastructureneedsOtherglobaltrendsinclude:?Increasedinvestingfromnationalgovernments?Pandemicimpactstoglobaltravelandglobalsupplychains?Acontinuedfocusonenvironmentallysustainable,tesensitiveinfrastructureInfrastructurewillneverbethesameagainEverypartoftheinfrast