2022-10-02-器官斯坦利媒體娛樂ESG投資因素-家族企業(yè)的中斷

1........................................................... --------y-------------------------------------------BO Average9%000LLAMRSPXIPGOOMCOUTOUTCCOCCO05.2%1.1%7.4%5.2%1.1%7.4%alotingofClassassA ---000000000000000000--.0%lassBClassK-sAClassB--DarsanaCapital---otal--SPOTOwnershipOrdinaryBeneficiaryWarrantsDilutiveDilutedEconomicVoting%ofOrdinaryssA --------WWE$15$24$22$88635$52318$42912$3718$3117$2699$26220n0202220232024202520262027COP26.2023.$11.00(+92.9.8%))Prob>11.00)~0.2%5(-6)$2.00$11.00(+92.9.8%))Prob>11.00)~0.2%5(-6)$2.00H/fwdEBITDAmultipleandisin-linewithitscurrenttradingmultiple.tanleyResearch$4.00$39.002098.2.5%))2098.2.5%))0SEP'21MAR'22SEP'22SEP'23Pro2.00~18.4Source:Re?nitiv,MorganStanleyResearch,MorganStanleyInstitutionalEquitiesDivision.TheprobabilitiesofourBull,Base,andBearcasescenariosplayingoutwereestimatedwithimpliedvolatilitydatafromtheoptionsmarketasof29Sep,2022.All?guresareapproximaterisk-neutralprobabilitiesofthestockreachingbeyondthescenariopriceineitherthree-months’orone-years’time.ViewexplanationofOptionsProbabilitiesmethodologyheredelivergrowththroughitsproductinitiatives,suchasFibertotheHomeandAlticeOnebox,andbyincreasingitsfocusontheB2Bgrowthopportunity.Howeverindustry-leadingeavelessroomforupsideovertimevs.peers.?AlticeUSAtradesatamodestdiscounttopeerswithlowermedium-termgrowth,inourview,asthecompanyentersitsinvestmentcycle.?Weseethepotentialforwirelesstodrivepoadbandchurnht70%Equal-weighteighttanleyResearchViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshere:Ourbullcasere?ectsanadditional~30-150bpsoftop-linegrowthingrowbpfasterperleadingtoasmallerdeclineinadjResicustomersdeclinein22E,drivenbymoderating/decliningbroadbandsubgrowth'22E,withAlticeUSAholdingnetlevinthe$2.00$2.00Ourbearcaseassumesadif?cultpriceenvironmentresultsin~20-200bpslowerntialARPUgrowthinEvsourinitiativesresultin~30-200bpslowerrevenueeofinHAttractivesubscribergrowthopportunityinbroadbandwithpricingpower,althoughwenotepotentiallyuncertainregulatorybackdropaheadWeseeATUSasapotentialbene?ciaryofindustryconsolidationgiventhebene?tstoganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshere4/5thehighestfavoredQuintileand5istheleastfavoredQuintileSuccessinmobile,FttH,andadvertisinginitiativescouldgenerateattractiveeconomicsovertimeIndustry-leadingpenetrationandARPUmayleavelessroomforupsideovertimevs.peers.Relativelyhigh?beroverbuildriskvs.peers,particularlyVerizonFiOS.OwnershipstructurecouldenablecapitalallocationdecisionsthatmaynotbeoptimalforminorityshareholdersRe?nitiv;MSPBContent.IncludescertainhedgefundexposuresheldwithMSPB.Informationmaybeinconsistentwithormaynotre?ectbroadermarkettrends.Long/ShortRatio=LongExposure/Shortexposure.Sector%ofTotalNetExposure=(Foraparticularsector:LongExposure-ShortExposure)/(Acrossallsectors:LongExposure–ShortExposure).Revenue9,8681.61stanleyResearch1.0-1.0HAllGov0020172018201920202021Indicatorofchangechartisplottedusingthe?scalalignedmethodology.Viewexplanationof'IndicatorofChange'methodologyhereleyResearchAlticeUSAhasatri-classurewithsinglevoteClassAsharescontrolledbyPatrickDrahithroughewhichthroughhighvoteClassBsharescontrols~95%ofthevotingrights.Alticeprovideslow-costbroadbandthroughthe“OurOptimumAdvantageInternet”program,andsupportsseveralAf?nityGroupsfocusedonprofessionalperfectscoreontheHumanRights2020and2019.3rdBottomTertileforworkforcegenderdiversityrelativetoregionalsectorpeersViewexplanationofHERSmethodologyhereHPRICETARGET$33.00ngadiscounttopeersduetolowerscaleand$36.00$36.00s0tanleyResearch4836$33.00(+59.57%)2427.47%)0SEPMARSEPSEP'23growingitsstreaminginitiatives,whilepressuresonthesinndingthelifeofkeyfranchisesarekeytodrivinggrowth.izeattractivedemo,andfocusonhigh-af?nitycontentpositionstheportfolioofnetworkstobene?tfromtargetedOTTadoption.StrategicshiftstowardcontentownershipfrommonetizingownedIP.tanleyResearchSecularGrowth:NegativeViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemesheretanleyResearchBULLCASE$45.00iginalprogrammingdrivescrementalupsidetoAMCXsOTTadoptionaswellasdomesticadvertising,whichgrows200bpsfasterannuallyvs.ourionrevsgrow300bpsfasterannuallyvs.ourjlow-singledigits,reboundingfrom'22levels.Domesticadvertisingdeclineslow-to-midacroheadwindsandtheshifttowardsstreaming.Domesticsubscription(includingOTT)growshigh-singletolow-doubledigitsin'23/24Ewithcoreaf?liatepressuredbysubscribersEdeclinesatamid-to-highsingledigitBEARCASE$15.00Domesticadvertisinggrows200-300bpDomesticsubscriptionrevenuesgrowbpbelowbasecasein'23/24EonlinearessureandslowerOTTadoptionConsolidatedhreeyearsEH4.9(4.4)RatingsperformanceoforiginalscriptedprogrammingimpactingadrevoutlookDistributionrenewalswithMVPDsIndustryconsolidationpotentiallybene?tingsmallergroupsofcontentassetslikeAMCXSubscribergrowthacrossnicheOTTplatformsganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshereStrongadoptionofstreamingsubscriptionsandstabilizationoflinearrevenuesdriveupsidetoElevatedsubscriberchurnandlackoftractiononoriginalprogrammingleadtolowerstreamingrevenueoutlook;lossofcarriagefromanMVPD;greaterthanexpectedprogrammingcostsdriveinpressureRe?nitiv;MSPBContent.IncludescertainhedgefundexposuresheldwithMSPB.Informationmaybeinconsistentwithormaynotre?ectbroadermarkettrends.Long/ShortRatio=LongExposure/Shortexposure.Sector%ofTotalNetExposure=(Foraparticularsector:LongExposure-ShortExposure)/(Acrossallsectors:LongExposure–ShortExposure).8.27734stanleyResearchHAllGov0-0.12-0-0.12-0.250.6200.6220172018201920202021Indicatorofchangechartisplottedusingthe?scalalignedmethodology.Viewexplanationof'IndicatorofChange'methodologyhereleyResearchAMCNetworkshasadualclassstructure,withsinglevoteClassAsharesownedsolelybytheDolanfamily,whichholdscombinedvotingpowerofroughly79%.AMCNetworksisfocusedondrivingdiversityandinclusionthroughworkforceinitiativesandon-screencontent.AsofDecember2021,itsglobalworkforcewasover50%women,with45%ofseniorleadershippositionsheldbywomen,while28%ofemployeesidenti?edaspeopleofcolor.HPRICETARGET$550.00supportedbyourcurrentmultiple.tanleyResearch$273.00$805.00800$650.00(+107.94%))$650.00(+107.94%))Prob(>550.00)~1.5%400200$270.00(-13.62200$270.00(-13.62%))0SEPMARSEPSEP'23Charterhassuccessfullyimplementedthestrategyithasprovenoutoverthelastfouryearsonitsnowlargerfootprint,drivingweexpectthislevelofgrowthtomoderate.?Assumingitcannot?ndcompellinginvestmentopportunitieselsewhere,weforecastCharterwillrepurchase~40-50%ofitscurrentmarketcapfrom'22-'24E.payerthisyearaswell.44%Equal-weighteighttanleyResearchViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshereSource:Re?nitiv,MorganStanleyResearch,MorganStanleyInstitutionalEquitiesDivision.TheprobabilitiesofourBull,Base,andBearcasescenariosplayingoutwereestimatedwithimpliedvolatilitydatafromtheoptionsmarketasof29Sep,2022.All?guresareapproximaterisk-neutralprobabilitiesofthestockreachingbeyondthescenariopriceineitherthree-months’orone-years’time.ViewexplanationofOptionsProbabilitiesmethodologyhereARPUandcustomergrowthvs.fundamentaldxpectedimprovingARPUandcustomergrowthvs.EBITDAgrowthof~300-700bpp.a.between2022-23E.Residentialcustomersgrow~30-100bpsperannumin2022-2023leadingto~200-600bpaveragecableEBITDAgrowthrateoverthattime.Wirelessbecomesprotableby4E.Leverageismaintainedatthehighendofitstargetrangeoverthemediumterm,implying~$30-40BofshareE:Ourbearcaseassumesthematerialtractioninthemarket,whileincreasedcompetitionfromtelcos/OTTofferingsslowssubmomentum.Macro-drivenheadwindsresultinrevperresi.customergrowthof?attishin'22/'23,leadingto~0-600bpavg.cableEBITDAgrowth.LowerEBITDAgrowthleadstoquityshrinkvsbaseHYCharter'soperationalopportunity,lowcapitalintensity,and?nancialleverageleaveitwithsolidupsideifgrowthremainshealthy.bledefensivebusinessthatbene?tsfromtheincrementaldemandforconnectivity.ganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchiesherethehighestfavoredQuintileand5istheleastfavoredQuintile1.0-1.0Charter'sleverageleavesitheavilyexposedtointerestratelevels,creatingadditionalequityvaluevolatility.Macro-relatedheadwindsfadefasterthangupsideinadvertisingandSMBgrowth.Increasedcompetitionfrom?berand?xedssplayerspressuresChartersbroadbandtshareRe?nitiv;MSPBContent.IncludescertainhedgefundexposuresheldwithMSPB.Informationmaybeinconsistentwithormaynotre?ectbroadermarkettrends.Long/ShortRatio=LongExposure/Shortexposure.Sector%ofTotalNetExposure=(Foraparticularsector:LongExposure-ShortExposure)/(Acrossallsectors:LongExposure–ShortExposure).Revenue54,59034.94stanleyResearchHAllGov00.4220172018201920202021--7.69%7.69%7.69%Indicatorofchangechartisplottedusingthe?scalalignedmethodology.Viewexplanationof'IndicatorofChange'methodologyhereleyResearchhasasingleclassofockbutalsohasmembershipunitsthatareownedbyetwoboardmembersLibertyMediaisCharter'slargestshareholder,currentlyateownershipcapthatisinplaceasaresultofitsshareholderagreementwithharterCharterisgoingtoprovideconnectivitytohigh-speedbroadbandtoinvesting$5bnoverthenextsixyears.Itboastsdiverserepresentationwith49%workforce.Charterisseekingto2050andhassetshort-term,medium-termandlong-termgoalstohelpachieveVoluntaryAgreementstodriveSet-TopBoxandSmallNetworkEquipmentreduceenergyconsumption3rdBottomTertileforworkforcegenderdiversityrelativetoregionalsectorpeersViewexplanationofHERSmethodologyhereHRROurmid-2023pricetargetimpliesa~7xEV/fwd.EBITDA,onthelowendofthehistoricaltanleyResearch$27.00$36.00(+186.85%24$22.00(+75.30%)8$12.00(-4.38%)80SEPMARSEPSEP'23tanleyResearchcangrowto~85%ofits2019levelsin2023.Sharestradeatthelowend(7x)ofits58%Overweight33%Equal-weight8%UnderweighttanleyResearchSecularGrowth:Self-help:ViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshereBULLCASE$36.00inlinewithBoxOf?cedollarsandmarginsreboundtostoricalUSboxofcebouncesbackto~85%of'19DomesticBoxOf?cedollarsreboundto85%lsSharestradeatthebottomofthepre-COVIDaveragerange.'23USBoxOf?cein-linewith'22,LatAmweakeralboxofcerecoveryinvsIn?ationandlowerattendancekeepsssuresLatAmHthTheprimarycatalystsforthestockincludedomestic/internationalboxof?ceperformanceandfurtherP-VODserviceannouncements.ganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshereAfullBoxOf?ceRecoveryreratetopreCOVIDaverageAmajorresurgenceinthepandemicand/oradditionalrestrictionsFilmsupplyiskeyandstudiosmayopttocontinuefeedingstreaming?rstovertheatricalIn?ationpressureonbothconcessionandlaborcostsRe?nitiv;MSPBContent.IncludescertainhedgefundexposuresheldwithMSPB.Informationmaybeinconsistentwithormaynotre?ectbroadermarkettrends.Long/ShortRatio=LongExposure/Shortexposure.Sector%ofTotalNetExposure=(Foraparticularsector:LongExposure-ShortExposure)/(Acrossallsectors:LongExposure–ShortExposure).stanleyResearchHAllGov012-0.12-0.20172018201920202021Indicatorofchangechartisplottedusingthe?scalalignedmethodology.Viewexplanationof'IndicatorofChange'methodologyhereleyResearchcommonstock,withfounder,formerCEO,tchellasthelargestindividualshareholder,and7oftCinemark'sdiversityandequityinitiativesincludeleadershiptraining,differentcharitiesacrossthecountry.CinemarkhasenactedefciencyinitiativesandiscurrentlylistedontheEPAGreenPowerPartnerNationalTop100list.HPRICETARGET$2.00AmultipleofxadiscounttopeerstanleyResearch432$2.00(+43.88%)210$0.50(-6403%)0SEPMARSEPSEP'23tanleyResearchthstrongexposuretotheadmarket,budgetshifttooutdooradvertising,favorablemarketexposureandagrowingdigitaloverlaywithintheirfootprinttanleyResearchViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshere$4.00$4.00AmericasrevenuelidatedrevenuetrendsgrowthOperatingleverageandcost-cuttingtogetherdriveevenhealthiermarginarginsreachingbyinadditiontothehigherrevenueoutlook.$2.00$2.00Totalrevenuegrows~13%in'22ydrivenbyslowingrevgrowthandlessrentatements$0.50$0.50Americasrevenuebouncesbackstillbutbyaweakerlow-doubledigits,thoughstillreachingdoubledigitgrowthin'22.Marginexpansionmoremuted,withconsolidated0%in'23.DigitalconversionsgrowaboveexpectationsOut-of-homeadvertisingsharegrowthandadspendsigni?cantlyacceleratesDeteriorationinmacrooutlookRisinginterestrateswithoutstrongfundamentalsstanleyResearchFailuretorenewtransitaccountsHigherdebtleveragevsgroupndenceonlocaladvertisersGovernmentregulationHseeeGrowthhighlycorrelatedtomacroeconomicgrowthtrendsConversionofhighoccupancytraditionalboardstodigitalSuccessfuldevelopmentofprogrammaticadbuyingandimprovedmeasurementganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshereRe?nitiv;MSPBContent.Includescertainhedgefundinconsistentwithormaynotre?ectbroadermarkettrends.Long/ShortRatio=LongExposure/Shortexposure.Sector%ofTotalNetExposure=(Foraparticularsector:LongExposure-ShortExposure)/(Acrossallsectors:LongExposure–ShortExposure).HAllGov0-0.12-0.12-0.2520172018201920202021Indicatorofchangechartisplottedusingthe?scalalignedmethodology.Viewexplanationof'IndicatorofChange'methodologyhereleyResearchClearChannelOutdoorhasaleclassofcommonstockwithPIMCOindependent.ClearChannelsupportsnon-pro?tsandlawenforcementbydonatingspaceonitsbillboards,andalsopartnerswithdifferentagenciestohelpdistributestandardstoadvertiseresponsibly.elisseekingtoreachnetzerocarbonemissionsby,butbelievescertainbusinessunitswillbeabletoachievethisby2030.ThecusedonrevampingdigitaldisplayswithLEDlightingandusingrecyclablematerialsforposters.HesPRICETARGET$50.00edonourbasecasevaluationandimpliesxfwdPEtanleyResearch$33.00$70.00Prob(>65.00)~0.0%$65.00(+113Prob(>65.00)~0.0%60$50.00(+64.3.1%%))Prob(>50.00)~2.2%4530.00(+5.16%).00(+5.16%))0SEPMARSEPSEP'23Source:Re?nitiv,MorganStanleyResearch,MorganStanleyInstitutionalEquitiesDivision.TheprobabilitiesofourBull,Base,andBearcasescenariosplayingoutwereestimatedwithimpliedvolatilitydatafromtheoptionsmarketasof29Sep,2022.All?guresareapproximaterisk-neutralprobabilitiesofthestockreachingbeyondthescenariopriceineitherthree-months’orone-years’time.ViewexplanationofOptionsProbabilitiesmethodologyherebroadbandwilloffsetvideodeclines,withthemixshiftdrivingrisingmarginsandfallingcapitalintensity.redCMCSAmultiplesresultinginanattractiverisk/reward.55%OverweighteighttanleyResearchViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshereCablecompetitivepricingpowertoremainhealthy,withoverallARPUgrowingupto10-100bpsresiPSUsgrows~300-600Kfasterp.a.AtdrivesanEBITDAgrowth500-800bpsfasterp.a.vs600bp.BASECASE$50.00:Ourbasecaseassumesresi.dbandsubsgrowinsupportinginlwthinEforCableandBCUandSkyinEOurbearcaseassumes~300-500KincrementalPSUslowinggrowthweighonadrevenueinwhileparksandlmareslowertorecover,leadingto~500-1000bpfacescontentsupplypressures,resultingin50-100Klighternetaddsp.a.HY.8InCable,webelievecontinuedrunwayinbroadbandwilldriverisingmarginsandfallingcapitalintensity.MacroandvirusrelatedivestemporarypressureatNBCUresultinginmoreattractivevaluationlevelsforganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshere2/5thehighestfavoredQuintileand5istheleastfavoredQuintileCablecompetitionisoverestimated,drivingmorebroadbandvolumegrowthversusFasterthanexpectedmacrorecoveryMacrouncertaintyandCOVID-19-relatedheadwindspressurecyclicallegsoftheGreaterregulatoryoversightnegativelyimpactsbroadbandpricinggrowthFWAandFTTHcompetitionworsethanfearedRe?nitiv;MSPBContent.IncludescertainhedgefundexposuresheldwithMSPB.Informationmaybeinconsistentwithormaynotre?ectbroadermarkettrends.Long/ShortRatio=LongExposure/Shortexposure.Sector%ofTotalNetExposure=(Foraparticularsector:LongExposure-ShortExposure)/(Acrossallsectors:LongExposure–ShortExposure).3.97stanleyResearchHAllEnvGov0-0.09-0.75-0.09-0.750.62-0.122017