化工-行業(yè)周報：四川等多地因高溫限電硅、磷等產業(yè)鏈漲價TDI、制冷劑、吡啶價格持續(xù)走高

證券研究報告工8.223.77工證券研究報告工8.223.77工昆股份3.92技0.70金禾實業(yè)3.322.575.932.542.90斯特3.843.12相關報告《【興證化工】基礎化工行業(yè)周報——萊茵河水位下降或影響歐IDMF、三氯氫硅等價格上漲(20220809-20220815)》TDI、制冷劑、吡啶價格持續(xù)走高投資要點CPI本周漲幅較大的產品：金屬硅(421,云南)，+23%；黃磷(貴州)，15%。hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03iumenglanxyzqcomcnS6本周跌幅較大的產品：鹽酸(31%,長三角)，-18%；丁二烯(韓國hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03iumenglanxyzqcomcnS6輯來看，在安環(huán)趨嚴、實現“雙碳”目標背景下，身處規(guī)范化重點園區(qū)、自身環(huán)保達標、擁有一體化產業(yè)鏈、規(guī)?；c技術領先實現的成強格局持續(xù)強化。特別是站在當前時點，化企龍頭在基本面緩慢恢復的背景下，估值已跌至較低水平，以龍頭公司周期底部業(yè)績測算來看，該估值仍具有極強安全邊際，化企核心資產配置性價比持續(xù)凸升、揚農化工等。風險提示：化工產品需求不達預期的風險，國際油價大幅下跌的風險，環(huán)請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-2-化產業(yè)鏈、規(guī)?；c技術領先實現的成本優(yōu)勢、持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的資本開支等工產業(yè)格局重塑的關鍵力量(萬華化學、華魯恒升、揚農化工等)。一速產品價格與價差的修復。建議關注桐昆股份、新鳳鳴。著全球經濟刺激退潮，原料需求邊際回落，其價格有望持續(xù)降低。海運端，2022年以來，海運供需錯配緩解，全球海運費出現明顯回落，未利水平有望迎來持續(xù)改善，國內頭部企業(yè)產能擴張迅速，搶占全球市場份額，有望迎來行業(yè)修復與自身成長的共振，投資布局價值凸顯。重點輪胎主要生產原料價格小幅下降，中國-美國的海運費繼續(xù)保持下降趨勢。本周，天然橡膠、丁苯橡膠、順丁橡膠、山東簾子布價格分別為0.96%、0.00%；炭黑方面，本周期原料煤焦油價格延續(xù)上行態(tài)勢，部分炭黑企業(yè)為控制成本降負生產，行業(yè)開工率下降，市場價格穩(wěn)定，為導體材料：國內晶圓廠擴產拉動材料需求，高端光刻膠、CMP拋光墊OCA光學級、MLCC離型膜段執(zhí)行，沸石、蜂窩陶瓷等相關產品有望持續(xù)放量。關注動力電池電解液龍頭天賜材料、新宙邦，正極材料龍頭當升科技，光伏膠膜全球龍頭化工新材料原創(chuàng)技術平臺昊華科技，國內領先的半導體光刻膠龍頭彤程新材，貫通芯片制造、封裝的電子材料平臺型公司雅克科技，催化材料領先企業(yè)國瓷材料、萬潤股份，風電葉片固化劑細分領域龍頭阿科力、濮陽惠成。黃磷供應收緊，下游需求向好，價格上漲。根據隆眾資訊，供應方面，請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-3-tss較好，對高價黃磷的接受度。本周黃磷(貴州)價格上漲17.9%至3.1格主要生產地因限電或疫情開工下降，金屬硅價格持續(xù)上漲。根據百川資訊，供應方面，四川地區(qū)由于持續(xù)高溫，電力供需緊張形勢加劇，主要硅廠基本停產；新疆地區(qū)因疫情開工下行，運輸受阻，金屬硅供應量整體下降。需求方面，下游多晶硅行業(yè)開工穩(wěn)定，需求平穩(wěn)。本周金。合盛硅業(yè)裝置停車檢修；湖北興瑞、合盛硅業(yè)(瀘州)裝置降負荷生產。。行。海外方面，德國巴斯夫(30萬噸)裝置停車時間延長，萬華化學位于匈牙利的子公司寶思德化學(25萬噸/年)裝置停產檢修市場延遲I請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-4-(華東)價格上漲5.1%至1.66萬元/噸；TDI-甲苯-硝酸-燒堿價差增厚玉象洪澤，河南金山，昊華駿化，奎屯錦江，廣西川化天禾等廠家裝置期四川以及安徽等地受限電影響，裝置陸續(xù)檢修或減產，市場整體供應廠等剛需采購為主。本周三聚氰胺(四川)價投資策略?海外政策收緊致需求邊際走弱，國內新產能投產在即，周期景氣或回/貨幣政策通道，美國耐用品消費已出現拐點；短期內國內政策托底經濟“穩(wěn)增長”，在“房住不炒”大背景下，地產相關化工品修復或相對加息后海外需求的邊際下滑。綜合來看，化工品需求壓力較大，化纖等非耐用品相關化工品需求或好于耐用品相關化工品；供給方面，歷經近我們認為2022年下半年化工品普遍性的景氣或難再現，投資主線應聚焦于盈利確定性較高的品種。綜上，把握2022年下半年化工行業(yè)投資內在市場化定價機制，疊加成品油組分價值鏈支撐，高油價并不影響煉油利潤；當前行業(yè)處底部區(qū)間，后續(xù)存修復預期。長絲方面，行業(yè)集中度提升帶動龍頭單噸盈利中樞上移，前期需求遭受不可抗力致行業(yè)短期請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-5-?成本回落帶來盈利修復確定性，產業(yè)趨勢醞釀行業(yè)發(fā)展機遇：新材料C能源產業(yè)配套完備，新材料不斷革新助力下游制造降本增效；“雙碳”利修復。長遠看，國內龍頭憑高性價比優(yōu)勢不斷搶占全球市場份額，未?通脹背景下，需求剛需與供給減少帶來行業(yè)景氣可持續(xù)的確定性：農科技、賽輪輪胎、國瓷材料、華峰化學、中國巨石、聯化科技、天賜材衛(wèi)星化學。的風險。請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-6- 錄 請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-7- 行業(yè)周報請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-8- 請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-9- 請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報表1、重點跟蹤化工產品價格與價差大類產品單單位更新日期本周上周周漲幅上月同期月漲幅上季度同期季度漲幅年初年內漲幅指數中國化工品價格指數CCPI---2022/08/1949084983511760225230-6.2%人民幣對美元匯率(中間價)2022/08/196.80656.74131.0%6.75220.8%6.73871.0%6.37426.8%美元指數---2022/08/19108.11105.682.3%106.551.5%101.646.4%95.7412.9%S&P5002022/08/194228.484280.153961.636.7%4158.241.7%4677.03-9.6%黃金現貨價美美元/盎司-2022/08/191750.751792.10-2.3%1736.950.8%1851.80-5.5%1792.60-2.3%CRB商品價格指數2022/08/19588.41590.12-0.3%576.742.0%628.71-6.4%581.83貨代運價指數CFFI:中國-歐洲---2022/08/19552255220.0%55220.0%496111.3%328967.9%貨代運價指數CFFI:中國-北美2022/08/19493849380.0%413419.4%350341.0%342444.2%原油WTI期貨(主連合約)Brent期貨(主連合約)美美元/桶美元/桶2022/08/1990.7792.0994.70115.071%78.9015.0%2022/08/1996.7298.15103.20-6.3%119.4381.7518.3%WTI期貨(次月合約)美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/19990.44991.46992.43-2.2%112.2378.4415.3%Brent期貨(次月合約)22022/08/19996.0996.996.9--0.8%998.38-2.3%115.5681.0618.5%WTI期貨(第12月合約)美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/1984.084.0384.484.47--0.5%81.481.423.2%93.04-9.7%72.0416.6%Brent期貨(第12月合約)22022/08/19991.64992.90992.70106.4578.3716.9%WTI現貨Brent現貨美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/19990.77992.09997.95-7.3%115.071%78.915.0%22022/08/19996.14999.02--2.9%103.15103.15-6.8%118.8181.9217.4%Dubai現貨Cinta現貨美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/19993.78100.21100.21--6.4%102.24102.24-8.3%112.0980.7216.2%22022/08/19909096.796.7--6.9%998.05-8.2%115.61%79.9112.6%美國原油鉆井數千桶千桶口22022/08/1960601606010.0%0.0%55990.3%5744.7%48124.9%美國商業(yè)原油庫存22022/08/19442495444320104426609-0.4%4198011.2%4178511.7%Brent-WTI期貨主連合約價差美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/195.95.956.066.068.8.5-30.0%4.3636.5%2.85108.8%WTI主連合約-次月合約22022/08/1900.3300.63-47.6-47.6%22.27-85.5-85.5%2.84-88.4%0.46-28.3%Brent主連合約-次月合約美美元/桶美元/桶2022/08/190.631.25-49.6%4.84.82-86.9-86.9%3.87-83.7%0.69-8.7%WTI主連合約-第12月合約2022/08/196.747.621313.28-49.2-49.2%22.03-69.4%6.86Brent主連合約-第12月合約美元美元/桶美元/桶2022/08/195.085.25-3.3%1010.50-51.7-51.7%12.98-60.9%3.3850.4%三地原油簡單三地原油簡單10天平移均價22022/08/1995.6899.66-4.0%104.75-8.7%111.6877.12煉油中國中國92#汽油(鎮(zhèn)海煉化)中國0#柴油(鎮(zhèn)海煉化)美國87#汽油美國柴油(紐約)歐洲ARA柴油(CIF)亞洲柴油(新加坡)新加坡石腦油FOB日本石腦油CFR液化氣(華東)丙烷(華東冷凍CFR)丁烷(華東冷凍CFR)元/噸元/噸元/噸元/噸美分/加侖元/噸美元/桶美元/噸美美分/加侖美分/加侖美美元/噸美美元/桶美美元/噸美元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/1922022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192022/08/1922022/08/1922022/08/1922022/08/1922022/08/1922022/08/19670670103248675282873701099109937770.3068211590068680103103248675282843521047104736774.30715096050676766660.0%0.0%11.2%5.2%4.9%0.8%-5.4%-4.7%1.6%-2.5%0.6%0.6%1071078090903013013491050105034778.03756126200718718718--4.2%-4.6%-4.6%6.2%4.6%2.0%-9.9%-9.8%-4.8%-5.3%-6.7%1061066489803983984011202120249991.46867256550813813818-3.2%-3.4%-27.9-27.9%-7.7%-8.6%-8.2%1%-21.4%-9.9%861861871252222924971271291779.3574411635075775772719.8%19.8%21.8%25.2%48.4%54.3%-8.4%-0.6%-7.8%-10-請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報正正丁烷(山東)元/噸元/噸2022/08/19561955431.4%5793-3.0%66375839-3.8%基礎油(150SN,東北)元/噸2022/08/19845084584500.0%0.0%8858850-4.5%8858850-4.5%721017.2%120#溶劑油(華東120#溶劑油(華東)元元/噸2022/08/19775076501.3%74504.0%75003.3%6400混調高硫180CST(華東)元/噸2022/08/19626066300-0.6%663606620011.0%502024.7%558#半煉石蠟(華南)元元/噸2022/08/19985098500.0%0.0%98500.0%0.0%970011.5%860014.5%重交瀝青(華南)元/噸2022/08/194900448750.5%447253.7%44705328049.4%改性瀝青(華南改性瀝青(華南)元元/噸2022/08/195970594559450.4%0.4%579557953.03.0%577557753.43.4%440035.7%國內主營汽油出廠價-原油價國內主營汽油出廠價-原油價差美元/噸2022/08/19269.82268.79268.790.4%0.4%286.85286.85--5.9%155.18155.18773.9%221.3221.9%國內主營柴油出廠價-原油價國內主營柴油出廠價-原油價差美元/噸2022/08/19163.64161.59161.5911.3%174.72174.72--6.3%43.5743.572275.6%128.55128.5527.3%國內主營成品油價-原油價國內主營成品油價-原油價差美元/噸2022/08/19135.85135.270.4%144.7276.07778.6%110.25110.2523.2%國國際汽油市場價-原油價差美元/噸2022/08/19262.47240.439.2%261.980.2%472.65-44.5-44.5%176.67176.6748.6%國國際柴油市場價-原油價差美元/噸2022/08/19396.33330.7919.8%284.5539.3%322.30223.0%145.20145.20173.0%國國際成品油市場價-WTI原油價差美元/噸2022/08/19225.32201.1412.0%203.3010.8%255.09114.7796.3%國國際成品油市場價-Brent原油價差美元/美元/噸22022/08/19202.58202.58177.98177.9813.8%13.8%170.81170.8118.6%238.43103.8795.0%美美灣WTI321價差美美元/桶22022/08/19336.92332.09330.8319.7%47.25-21.9%15.56137.3%美灣美灣Brent321價差美美元/桶22022/08/19331.4025.025.01225.5%26.226.2719.5%43.31-27.5%12.47151.8%亞洲亞洲Minas321價差美美元/桶22022/08/1925.125.101717.80441.0%1515.4162.9%26.24-4.4%9.89153.7%美國HenryHub期貨(主連合約)英英國NBP現貨(遠期合約)美國HenryHub現貨美國美國N.Y.Hub現貨美元美元/MMBtu22022/08/199.349.3488.776.56.5%88.3012.5%8.737.0%3.92138.4%便便士/Therm22022/08/1937237236536511.9%2828032.9%30186.2%9590.8%美元美元/MMBtu22022/08/199.119.1188.7%8.2510.4%3.83137.9%美元/美元/MMBtu美元/MMBtu22022/08/1988.1577.5188.5%88.317.715.7%9.25天然氣天然氣GPL現貨中國中國LNG現貨(華北)美美國天然氣庫存22022/08/1942.6642.6644.44.3--3.7%331.5235.3%17.68141.3%27.1956.9%美元美元/MMBtu22022/08/1921.121.1621.521.5621.421.4422.5423.86美元美元/MMBtu22022/08/19556.01550.6310.6%10.6%337.8747.9%24.3431.27十億立方英尺十億立方英尺元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/19251962519690025016250169000.0%0.0%240162401620011.3%6680018191.5%51005100319535.3%0.7%0.7%44.9%38.5%-21.2%煤焦精煤(太原)焦精煤(太原)無煙煤(Q6500,晉城)煙煤(Q5500,山西優(yōu)混)動動力煤(Q5500,環(huán)渤海指數)煤焦油(華東煤焦油(華東)元/噸元/噸元/噸22022/08/192022/08/191770177011601770177011450.0%1228189012281890--6.3%1760176012100.6%179017908111.3%--5.5%43.0%元/噸元/噸22022/08/197317310.0%733-0.3%735-0.5%733-0.3%元/噸元/噸22022/08/19240023004.3%27003000-20.0%1200100.0%元/噸元/噸22022/08/195540542653154.2%54721.2%490413.0%冶金焦(一級，華北)冶金焦(一級，華北)工業(yè)萘(華東)焦炭(河北)焦炭(河北)氣氣化焦(山西)焦焦炭-焦精煤價差元/噸元/噸22022/08/19570052508.6%475020.0%52309.0%495015.2%元/噸元/噸元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192690269027472490249025808.0%2490249025808.0%330903097289028902935-6.9%6.5%6.5%-6.4%元/噸元/噸元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/1920502050-91020502050-9600.0%2350235027502750-25.5%217021701090-5.5%5.2%41.7%35.5%183.5%乙乙二醇(華東)元/元/噸元/噸22022/08/1938724111-5.8%4220-8.2%47945114-24.3%草草酸(山東)22022/08/19495049500.0%47504.2%48505850C1液液氨(山東)元元/噸22022/08/1930753171-3.0%3100-0.8%48901%3775尿素(山東)尿素(山東)元元/噸22022/08/1923002300234025903240-29.0%2610請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報三聚氰胺(四川)硝酸(華東)元/噸元/噸2022/08/1975006680010.3%10.3%6650015.4%15.4%9910095001%元/噸2022/08/1921652473247328802880-24.8-24.8%26502650182518.6%硝酸銨(河南)硝酸鈉(華東)元元/噸2022/08/193300333000.0%0.0%333000.0%0.0%333000.0%0.0%33000.0%元/噸2022/08/193400334000.0%0.0%33450337003700甲醇(華東)一甲胺(華魯)元元/噸元/噸22022/08/192022/08/19245524552020019700197002465--0.4%13200132002470--0.6%158001580028302660266019200-7.7%22.5%53.053.0%227.8%5.2%二甲胺(華魯)三甲胺(華魯)元元/噸元/噸22022/08/192022/08/1913313300180001800018000133000.0%0.0%170001700016800-20.8-20.8%180001800019000-30.0-30.0%2050020500215001%0.0%0.0%55.9%0.0%0.0%DMF(華東)醋酸(華東)元元/噸2022/08/1911300113000.0%113000.0%1300016516500-31.5%元/噸2022/08/1929503200-7.8%35504900-39.8-39.8%66050-51.2%醋酐(華魯)醋酸乙烯(華東)元元/噸2022/08/1956006300650085001%99700-42.3%元元/噸22022/08/19101101501161165014614600-30.5%15750-35.6%13100-22.5%PVAPVA(1799,四川維尼綸)醋酸乙酯(華東)元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/19642564252030064306430203000.0%0.0%6915691520400-0.5%2220008430-7.7%2206008510-23.8%-24.5%醋酸丁酯(華東)甲醛(河北)元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/191150711507225118071180702522.8%1160711607850-8.0%997001230-25.5%101101501195-28.8%--2.5%-0.9%-6.5%-3.8%甲酸(國內)二甲醚(河南)元元/噸22022/08/1944550445500.0%0.0%44800-5.2%7250-37.2%5100元元/噸22022/08/19339503390011.3%338003.9%4080-3.2%37006.8%乙二醇-乙烯價差元元/噸22022/08/19222262222628283-20.0%-355-1008-77.6%乙二醇-煙煤價差元元/噸22022/08/19-304-304--2663.6%-201-201-51.4%551155.2%2194113.9%煤制草酸價差元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/19331733175223329032905250--0.5%3013301349445.6%529152913087667294200-22.4%淀粉制草酸價差0.8%0.8%7.5%-21.0%液氨-煙煤價差元元/噸22022/08/191335133514541454--8.2%125812583085-56.7%2559-47.8%尿素-液氨價差元/噸2022/08/194554374.0%730730-37.7-37.7%32042.2%34531.9%三聚氰胺-尿素價差元/噸元/噸2022/08/19600-220---42042.9%16701%硝硝酸銨-液氨價差元元/噸22022/08/19207020321.9%20600.5%134054.5%179015.6%甲醇-煙煤價甲醇-煙煤價差元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/19715715-390748748-4.3%6262813.9%960960445-25.5%14441444-50.5%MTOMTO價差(乙烯/丙烯-甲醇)129.4%110.8%187.7%-200.0%MTOMTO價差(PP/PE-甲醇)元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/1924352435159802555255515417-4.7%331908951-23.7%3322513247-24.5%3397014384-38.7%一一甲胺-甲醇-液氨價差3.7%78.5%20.6%二二甲胺-甲醇-液氨價差元元/噸22022/08/19864585950.6%12115-28.6%13198-34.5%16288-46.9%DMFDMF-甲醇-液氨價差元元/噸22022/08/19712470740.7%70960.4%7710-7.6%11798-39.6%醋酸-甲醇價差醋酸-甲醇價差元元/噸22022/08/19160018442192-27.0%3374-52.6%45871%醋酐-醋酸價差醋酐-醋酸價差元元/噸22022/08/19191323002063-7.3%23752138乙乙烯法醋酸乙烯價差元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/19578057804074669515086996118110-39.9%89689677660-35.5%661604088-6.2%電石法醋酸乙烯價電石法醋酸乙烯價差-49.8%-46.8%-0.4%PVAPVA-電石價差元元/噸22022/08/1912512586119845.0%12698-0.9%13038-3.5%1141410.3%-12-請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明請務必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報二甲醚-甲醇價差元/噸2022/08/1951344944914.3%14.3%34234250.050.0%95-242237.5%C2乙烷(MB)乙烯(韓國FOB)環(huán)氧乙烷(華東)純萘減水劑(華東)聚羧酸減水劑單體TPEG(華東)乙烯-石腦油價差乙烯-乙烷價差環(huán)氧乙烷-乙烯價差美元/加侖美元/加侖美元/噸元元/噸元/噸元元/噸美元/噸美美元/噸元/噸22022/08/192022/08/1922022/08/192022/08/1922022/08/192022/08/1922022/08/192022/08/1900.6066790773503350778000920203273235850335035850335024290.59217735077800272772.5%2.5%-26.8%12.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%860052363386005236333500.5774773508008000301301-2.5%3.8%-32.7%15.6%0.0%0.0%2681150153532681150153533500.590282082009930055782.8%-31.3%2.8%-31.3%-59.5%-65.0%78.0%0.0%2100021000.3560950773003350870870020660605770.4%0.7%0.0%-47.4%-66.5%C3丙烷(山東)丙烯(韓國FOB)元元/噸美元/噸22022/08/192022/08/1957005700881550055008963.6%5800580089166500107698169816100-6.6%丙烯(華東)環(huán)氧丙烷(華東)元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/19907590756975867586757225-3.5%862586257225-3.5%830830010650778501080044.6%5.2%碳酸二甲酯DMC(華東)丙二醇(華東)元/元/噸元/噸22022/08/196680077200--5.6%664505.4%515032.0%9000-24.4%22022/08/1999200800800015.0%15.0%99700-5.2%13200-30.3%17000-45.9%丙烯酸(華東)SAP(日系,華南)元/元/噸元/噸22022/08/19771507705011.4%875875013600-47.4%12300-41.9%22022/08/1915015000150150000.0%0.0%15715750-4.8%147501.7%142505.3%丙烯酸甲酯(華東)丙烯酸丁酯(華東)元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/1988508850119509050905012050--0.8%1080010800143001791795014250-33.4%16416400129001%--2.2%-37.9%-31.4%正丁醇(華東)異辛醇(華東)元/元/噸元/噸2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/1984508450700085008500680022.9%8650865082001031035012800-32.4%9980010850-28.6%--0.6%-2.3%-34.0%1%環(huán)氧氯丙烷(華東)丙烯腈(長三角)元/元/噸元/噸22022/08/1911411400110110003.63.6%113113000.9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