國際期貨市場運(yùn)作第組我國燃油期貨分析

我國燃油期貨分析Group2:紀(jì)曉鋒,李世成,張喆,劉島,商務(wù)英語0611一、FundamentalAnalysisThegenerallysituationoffueloilfuturesprices.2009年6月9日，上海燃料油0908合約報(bào)價(jià)約為每噸3723元2Thefueloilfuturesmarketwillbebetterforlongposition.Why?ThroughthesupplyanddemandNowadays:theworldover-supplyoffueloil.Thereisasurplusof53.46milliontonsofworldoilsupplyin2002,butintermsofregionalbalance,ashortageofdemandfortheAsia-PacificandNorthAmerica,theneedforalargenumberofimportsfromotherregions;theformerSovietUnion,LatinAmericaandtheMiddleEasthaveagreatersurplusoffueloil.3Thefuturesupplyanddemandoffueloil1.Asia-Pacific

regionwillcontinuetodemandtheexistenceofahugegap.Whiletheformer

SovietUnionwilldeclineinsupplycapacity,butisstilloutsidetheabilityforallregionsoftheworldlargest,almostdemandtheAsia-Pacificregionandaconsiderablegap.2.Africahasabout22milliontonsoffueloilsurplus3.Asia-Pacificregionoverthenextfewyearswillcontinuetobetheworld'smostactiveoiltrade,Singaporeasaninternationaloiltradeandoiltransitcenterwillhavealargeamountoffueloilre-exports4Thesituationoffueloiltransaction5Thesituationoffueloilinventory6Relevanteconomicindex道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)：7CPI&PPIChina’sCPIfell1.4percent,andPPIfell7.2%inMayU.S.consumerpriceindex(CPI)increasedby0.6%.andPPIup1.4%inMayGDPThefirstquarterof2009increased6.1percentinChina,againstthebackdropoftheglobalfinancialcrisis,itismeansoveralleconomicperformanceduringthefirstquarterbetterthanexpectedInU.S.,thefirstquarterGDProse0.7percent,higheroverseassalesofthereasonsforpushingupGDP.Economistsexpectedavalueof0.8percentoryears.Thefirstquarterof02-yearincreaseistheweakestgrowthsincetheendoftheyear.Economistsexpecttheeconomywillreboundinthesecondquarter.EconomicsituationofChina,U.S.andEuropeItiseasytoseethatChina,theUnitedStatesandEurope'seconomicsituationisnotquitewellinthewholeeconomy,butitisstillintherecoveryphase,andslowlyturnforthebetter8Futures-relatedimpact:crudeoil本周原油市場漲勢有所趨緩，整體漲幅2.61%。國內(nèi)燃油市場本周主力換月至909合約，走勢上依舊跟隨國際原油市場，震蕩上行，盤中創(chuàng)出年內(nèi)新高至3838元，本周漲幅逾4%，剔除端午節(jié)補(bǔ)漲因素外，整體上滬油走勢仍弱于原油市場。原油市場短期內(nèi)快速上揚(yáng)主要依靠人們對經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇預(yù)期以及美元快速走軟，與其基本面供需并無較大關(guān)聯(lián)。9TheforeignpriceoffueloilNewYorkoilpricebroke70U.S.dollars,arecordhighof7months10Breakingnews,events1.ChinaNationalPetroleumCorporationhavefoundagiantoilfieldwhichhasascaleof1billiontoninBoHaiBaytidalarea.2.Thepriceofcrudeoilhasdeclinedover70%.

08年在衰退風(fēng)潮的刺激下，盛極一時(shí)的原油價(jià)格，也從今年7月11日的147.27美元每桶一路下滑至每桶35美元，跌幅超過70%。11123.NPC&CPPCCinfluencedworldeconomy.中國日報(bào)網(wǎng)中國在線消息：當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間2日下午，包括全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的二十國集團(tuán)（G20）峰會(huì)在倫敦落幕。為應(yīng)對全球金融危機(jī)，各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人同意斥資1.1萬億美元挽救全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。134.APECsummitmeetingissuedanstatementthattheyobjectprotecionism.5.Coalpriceoverallworldwidefallsonaccountoftheslowdownofworldeconomy.6.ThatIrankeepsahard-linestandinNuclearIssuesisstillthecoreofgeopoliticalcollision.TheproblemaboutIranianNuclearIssuesappearssharper.14Conclusion目前原油市場以及美元走勢是整體商品走勢領(lǐng)頭羊，而美元經(jīng)過快速下挫后存在技術(shù)性反彈需求，短期內(nèi)將給予商品一定壓力；原油市場短期將試探70美元關(guān)口，若能站穩(wěn)70美元?jiǎng)t有進(jìn)一步上行空間，若遇阻原油或?qū)⒒爻分?2附近支撐位。中期來看原油仍保持著良好的上升通道，國內(nèi)燃油市場雖有基本面不利因素拖累其漲勢，但在原油市場走好支撐下后期依舊維持震蕩上行走勢。15二.TechnicalAnalysis

16InfluenceoftheforeignmarketMarket：NYMEXChartPatterns：DailyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)美燃油08Date：09.6.81718ChartPatterns：weeklyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)美燃油081920Market：NYMEXChartPatterns：MonthlyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)美燃油08Date：09年6月8日2122Market：上海交易市場ChartPatterns：DailyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)燃油0908Date：09.6.82324ChartPatterns：weeklyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)燃油09082526Market：上海交易市場ChartPatterns：MonthlyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)燃油0908Date：09.6.82728CONCLUSIONInshortterm,thepriceoffueloilwillkeeposcillating.Inlongterm.Thepriceoffueloilw