宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)課件28unemployment

28UnemploymentandItsNaturalRate28Inthischapter,lookfortheanswerstothesequestions:Howisunemploymentmeasured?Whatisthe“naturalrateofunemployment”?Whyaretherealwayssomepeopleunemployed?Howisunemploymentaffectedbyunionsandminimumwagelaws?Whatisthetheoryofefficiencywages,andhowdoesithelpexplainunemployment?HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?UnemploymentismeasuredbytheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS).Itsurveys60,000randomlyselectedhouseholdseverymonth.ThesurveyiscalledtheCurrentPopulationSurvey.美國每個月第一個周五公布失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)2013年9月9日，中國首次向外公開了調(diào)查失業(yè)率的有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Basedontheanswerstothesurveyquestions,theBLSplaceseachadultintooneofthreecategories:EmployedUnemployedNotinthelaborforceHowIsUnemploymentMeasured?TheBLSconsidersapersonanadultifheorsheisover16yearsold.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonisconsideredemployedifheorshehasspentmostofthepreviousweekworkingatapaidjob.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonisunemployedifheorsheisontemporarylayoff,islookingforajob,oriswaitingforthestartdateofanewjob.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonwhofitsneitherofthesecategories,suchasafull-timestudent,homemaker,orretiree,isnotinthelaborforce.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?LaborForceThelaborforceisthetotalnumberofworkers,includingboththeemployedandtheunemployed.TheBLSdefinesthelaborforceasthesumoftheemployedandtheunemployed.Figure1TheBreakdownofthePopulationin2007Copyright?2003Southwestern/ThomsonLearningAdultPopulation(231.1million)LaborForce(153million)Employed(146.3million)Notinlaborforce(78.1million)Unemployed(6.7million)HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Theunemploymentrateiscalculatedasthepercentageofthelaborforcethatisunemployed.Thelabor-forceparticipationrateisthepercentageoftheadultpopulationthatisinthelaborforce.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?A

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CalculatelaborforcestatisticsComputethelaborforce,u-rate,adultpopulation,andlaborforceparticipationrateusingthisdata:13AdultpopulationoftheU.S.

bygroup,March2007#ofemployed 146.3million#ofunemployed 6.7millionnotinlaborforce 78.1million0A

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AnswersLaborforce =employed+unemployed

=146.3+6.7

=153.0millionU-rate =100x(unemployed)/(laborforce)

=100x6.7/153.0

=4.4%140A

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AnswersPopulation =laborforce+notinlaborforce

=153.0+78.1

=231.1LFpartic.rate =100x(laborforce)/(population)

=100x153.0/231.1

=66.2%150CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTLaborMarketStatisticsforDifferentGroupsTheBLSpublishesthesestatisticsfordemographicgroupswithinthepopulation.Thesedatarevealwidelydifferentlabormarketexperiencesfordifferentgroups.0Table1TheLabor-MarketExperiencesofVariousDemographicGroups,2007Copyright?2004South-WesternAdults(20yrs&older)u-rateLFpart.rateWhite,male3.4%76.6%White,female3.360.1Black,male9.071.0Black,female6.264.3Teens(16-19yrs)u-rateLFpart.rateWhite13.244.9Black25.030.5LaborMarketStatisticsbyEducationLevel,

March2007Adults(25yrs&older)u-rateLFpart.ratelessthanh.s.7.0%47.2%h.s.diploma4.162.9somecollegeorassocdegree3.671.6bachelor’sdegreeormore1.878.60Figure2UnemploymentRateSince1960Copyright?2003Southwestern/ThomsonLearning108642019701975196019651980198519902005PercentofLaborForce19952000NaturalrateofunemploymentUnemploymentrateFigure3LaborForceParticipationRatesforMenandWomenSince1950Copyright?2003Southwestern/ThomsonLearning1008060402001950195519601965197019751980198519902000Labor-ForceParticipationRate(inpercent)WomenMen1995A

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ExerciseIneachofthefollowing,whathappenstotheu-rate?Doestheu-rategiveanaccurateimpressionofwhat’shappeninginthelabormarket?21A. Suelostherjob,andbeginslookingforanewone.B. Jon,asteelworkerwhohasbeenoutofworksincehismillclosedlastyear,esdiscouragedandgivesuplookingforwork.C. Sam,thesoleearnerinhisfamilyof5,justlosthis$80,000jobasaresearchscientist.Immediately,hetakesapart-timejobatMcDonald’suntilhecanfindanotherjobinhisfield.0A

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Answers22A. Suelostherjob,andbeginslookingforanewone.u-raterisesArisingu-rategivestheimpressionthatthelabormarketisworsening,anditis.0A

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Answers23B. Jonhasbeenoutofworksincelastyear,

esdiscouraged,stopslookingforwork.Discouragedworkers

wouldliketoworkbuthavegivenuplookingforjobsclassifiedas“notinthelaborforce”ratherthan“unemployed”u-ratefalls,becauseJonisnolongercountedasunemployed.Afallingu-rategivestheimpressionthatthelabormarketisimproving,butitisnot.0A

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Answers24C. Samlosthis$80,000job,andtakesapart-timejobatMcDonald’suntilhefindsabetterone.u-rateunchanged,becauseapersonis“employed”whethertheyworkfullorparttime.Thingsareworse,buttheu-ratefailstoshowit.0DoestheUnemploymentRateMeasureWhatWeWantItTo?Itisdifficulttodistinguishbetweenapersonwhoisunemployedandapersonwhoisnotinthelaborforce.Discouragedworkers,peoplewhowouldliketoworkbuthavegivenuplookingforjobsafteranunsuccessfulsearch,don’tshowupinunemploymentstatistics.Otherpeoplemayclaimtobeunemployedinordertoreceivefinancialassistance,eventhoughtheyaren’tlookingforwork. CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTWhatDoestheU-RateReallyMeasure?Theu-rateisnotaperfectindicatorofjoblessnessorthehealthofthelabormarket:excludesdiscouragedworkersdoesnotdistinguishbetweenfull-timeand

part-timework,orpeopleworkingparttimebecausefull-timejobsnotavailablesomepeoplemisreporttheirworkstatusintheBLSsurveyDespitetheseissues,theu-rateisstillaveryusefulbarometerofthelabormarket&economy.0中國傳統(tǒng)失業(yè)率：城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率（2011年開始，換用調(diào)查失業(yè)率說法）城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)人員指：有非農(nóng)業(yè)戶口，在一定的勞動年齡內(nèi)（16歲以上及男50歲以下、女45歲以下），有勞動能力，無業(yè)而要求就業(yè)，并在當(dāng)?shù)鼐蜆I(yè)服務(wù)機構(gòu)進行求職登記的人員。分子是登記的失業(yè)人數(shù)，分母是從業(yè)的人數(shù)與登記失業(yè)人數(shù)之和。城鎮(zhèn)單位就業(yè)人口：不包括農(nóng)村勞動力、聘用的離退休人員、港澳臺及外方人員中國城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)注：2012年調(diào)查失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)位4.9%-5.2%。2010-2013登記失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)始終4.1%。2013年調(diào)查失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)5%中國失業(yè)率指標(biāo)的缺陷（1）中國凡屆滿一定下限年齡、具有勞動能力、要求有報酬的工作而尚未獲得工作職位的人口，稱為失業(yè)人口。不愿工作而賦閑的人，或雖有工作愿望而尚未達到規(guī)定下限年齡的人，均不得算作失業(yè)人口。中國通稱的待業(yè)人口。（2）中國就業(yè)服務(wù)體系和社會保障體系還不完善，到勞動保障部門就業(yè)服務(wù)機構(gòu)登記求職的失業(yè)人員數(shù)量不夠全面，再加上就業(yè)和失業(yè)登記辦法還不健全和規(guī)范，因此，存在著實際失業(yè)率高于登記失業(yè)率的現(xiàn)象。（3）農(nóng)村人口未加考慮。發(fā)展中國家的失業(yè)類型上述失業(yè)均為公開性失業(yè)（狹義失業(yè)）發(fā)展中國家存在非公開性失業(yè)（勞動力就業(yè)不足）、且后者規(guī)模龐大。發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學(xué)習(xí)慣將公開性和非公開性失業(yè)統(tǒng)稱為廣義的失業(yè)。愛德華茲（E.O.Edwards）將發(fā)展中國家的勞動力利用不充分或勞動不得其用，即廣義的失業(yè)，區(qū)分為五種存在形式Edwards五種失業(yè)類型：（1）公開性失業(yè)。這種失業(yè)包括自愿失業(yè)和非自愿失業(yè)。自愿失業(yè)，指能夠勝任某項工作的人拒絕考慮這種工作，而暫時處在閑置狀態(tài)；非自愿失業(yè)，指積極尋找工作，但仍無工作可做的人。（2）就業(yè)不足。指勞動者實際工作的時間少于他們希望工作的時間。（3）表面上是在工作或愿意工作，但利用不充分。這種失業(yè)包括：第一，變相的就業(yè)不足。一些人看起來全天在農(nóng)場、工廠和政府部門工作，但實際上他們提供的服務(wù)只要更少的時間就能完成。第二，隱性失業(yè)。有些人因找不到工作不得不選擇非就業(yè)活動，典型地就是去接受教育和從事家務(wù)勞動。如受過一定教育的人本想?yún)⒓庸ぷ鳎蚓蜆I(yè)機會缺乏而被迫繼續(xù)上學(xué)；婦女本來愿意參加工作，但因受傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)俗習(xí)慣和道德因素的影響而找不到工作，她們不得不圍著灶臺轉(zhuǎn)。這樣，教育機構(gòu)和家庭就成為這些“愿意就業(yè)者最后的場所”。第三，提前退休。這種現(xiàn)象在公務(wù)員中特別明顯，而且呈上升趨勢。在許多發(fā)展中國家，盡管人們的壽命在延長，但退休年齡卻在逐漸下降，這主要是為更多的年輕人創(chuàng)造就業(yè)和提升的機會。Edwards五種失業(yè)類型：（4）損傷。指本來在整個工作階段都能工作的人，但由于營養(yǎng)不良或缺乏正常的衛(wèi)生保健條件而致身體欠佳，或者不能做全日工作。（5）生產(chǎn)無效益。指本來有生產(chǎn)性的勞動者，但因補充性的物質(zhì)資源不充分，生產(chǎn)率極低，生產(chǎn)出來的成果甚至還不能補償他們的生活必需品。HowLongAretheUnemployedwithoutWork?Mostspellsofunemploymentareshort.Mostunemploymentobservedatanygiventimeislong-term.Mostoftheeconomy’sunemploymentproblemisattributabletorelativelyfewworkerswhoarejoblessforlongperiodsoftime.CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTTheDurationofUnemploymentMostspellsofunemploymentareshort:Typically1/3oftheunemployed

havebeenunemployed<5weeks,

2/3havebeenunemployed<14weeks.Only20%havebeenunemployed>6months.Yet,mostobservedunemploymentislongterm.Thesmallgroupoflong-termunemployedpersonshasfairlylittleturnover,soitaccountsformostoftheunemploymentobservedovertime.Knowingthesefactshelpspolicymakersdesignbetterpoliciestohelptheunemployed.0CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTCyclicalUnemploymentvs.theNaturalRateThere’salwayssomeunemployment,thoughtheu-ratefluctuatesfromyeartoyear.Thenaturalrateofunemploymentthenormalrateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheactualunemploymentratefluctuatescyclicalunemploymentthedeviationofunemploymentfromits

naturalrateassociatedwithbusinesscycles,whichwe’llstudyinlaterchapters0U.S.Unemployment,1960-2006UnemploymentrateNaturalrateofunemployment0CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTExplainingtheNaturalRate:AnOverviewEvenwhentheeconomyisdoingwell,thereisalwayssomeunemployment,including:frictionalunemploymentoccurswhenworkersspendtimesearchingforthejobsthatbestsuittheirskillsandtastesshort-termformostworkersstructuralunemploymentoccurswhentherearefewerjobsthanworkersusuallylonger-term0WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Inanideallabormarket,wageswouldadjusttobalancethesupplyanddemandforlabor,ensuringthatallworkerswouldbefullyemployed.WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Frictionalunemploymentreferstotheunemploymentthatresultsfromthetimethatittakestomatchworkerswithjobs.Inotherwords,ittakestimeforworkerstosearchforthejobsthatarebestsuittheirtastesandskills.WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Structuralunemploymentistheunemploymentthatresultsbecausethenumberofjobsavailableinsomelabormarketsisinsufficienttoprovideajobforeveryonewhowantsone.JOBSEARCHJobsearchtheprocessbywhichworkersfindappropriatejobsgiventheirtastesandskills.resultsfromthefactthatittakestimeforqualifiedindividualstobematchedwithappropriatejobs.JOBSEARCHThisunemploymentisdifferentfromtheothertypesofunemployment.Itisnotcausedbyawageratehigherthanequilibrium.Itiscausedbythetimespentsearchingforthe“right”job.WhySomeFrictionalUnemploymentisInevitableSearchunemploymentisinevitablebecausetheeconomyisalwayschanging.Changesinthecompositionofdemandamongindustriesorregionsarecalledsectoralshifts.

Ittakestimeforworkerstosearchforandfindjobsinnewsectors.PublicPolicyandJobSearchGovernmentprogramscanaffectthetimeittakesunemployedworkerstofindnewjobs.Theseprogramsincludethefollowing:Government-runemploymentagenciesPublictrainingprogramsUnemploymentinsurancePublicPolicyandJobSearchGovernment-runemploymentagenciesgiveoutinformationaboutjobvacanciesinordertomatchworkersandjobsmorequickly.PublicPolicyandJobSearchPublictrainingprogramsaimtoeasethetransitionofworkersfromdecliningtogrowingindustriesandtohelpdisadvantagedgroupsescapepoverty.PublicPolicyandJobSearchUnemploymentinsuranceisagovernmentprogramthatpartiallyprotectsworkers’eswhentheyeunemployed.Offersworkerspartialprotectionagainstjoblosses.Offerspartialpaymentofformerwagesforalimitedtimetothosewhoarelaidoff.PublicPolicyandJobSearchUnemploymentinsuranceincreasestheamountofsearchunemployment.Itreducesthesearcheffortsoftheunemployed.Itmayimprovethechancesofworkersbeingmatchedwiththerightjobs.PublicPolicyandJobSearchStructuralunemploymentoccurswhenthequantityoflaborsuppliedexceedsthequantitydemanded.Structuralunemploymentisoftenthoughttoexplainlongerspellsofunemployment.PublicPolicyandJobSearchWhyisthereStructuralUnemployment?Minimum-wagelawsUnionsEfficiencywagesMINIMUM-WAGELAWSWhentheminimumwageissetabovethelevelthatbalancessupplyanddemand,itcreatesunemployment.Figure4UnemploymentfromaWageAbovetheEquilibriumLevelCopyright?2003Southwestern/ThomsonLearningQuantityofLabor0

Surplusoflabor=UnemploymentLaborsupplyLabordemandWageMinimumwageLDLSWELEUNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGAunionisaworkerassociationthatbargainswithemployersoverwagesandworkingconditions.Inthe1940sand1950s,whenunionswereattheirpeak,aboutathirdoftheU.S.laborforcewasunionized.Aunionisatypeofcartelattemptingtoexertitsmarketpower.UNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGTheprocessbywhichunionsandfirmsagreeonthetermsofemploymentiscalledcollectivebargaining.UNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGAstrikewillbeorganizediftheunionandthefirmcannotreachanagreement.Astrikereferstowhentheunionorganizesawithdrawaloflaborfromthefirm.UNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGAstrikemakessomeworkersbetteroffandotherworkersworseoff.Workersinunions(insiders)reapthebenefitsofcollectivebargaining,whileworkersnotintheunion(outsiders)bearsomeofthecosts.UNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGByactingasacartelwithabilitytostrikeorotherwiseimposehighcostsonemployers,unionsusuallyachieveabove-equilibriumwagesfortheirmembers.Unionworkersearn10to20percentmorethannonunionworkers.AreUnionsGoodorBadfortheEconomy?Criticsarguethatunionscausetheallocationoflabortobeinefficientandinequitable.Wagesabovethecompetitivelevelreducethequantityoflabordemandedandcauseunemployment.Someworkersbenefitattheexpenseofotherworkers.AreUnionsGoodorBadfortheEconomy?Advocatesofunionscontendthatunionsareanecessaryantidotetothemarketpoweroffirmsthathireworkers.Theyclaimthatunionsareimportantforhelpingfirmsrespondefficientlytoworkers’concerns.THETHEORYOFEFFICIENCYWAGESEfficiencywagesareabove-equilibriumwagespaidbyfirmsinordertoincreaseworkerproductivity.Thetheoryofefficiencywagesstatesthatfirmsoperatemoreefficientlyifwagesareabovetheequilibriumlevel.THETHEORYOFEFFICIENCYWAGESAfirmmaypreferhigherthanequilibriumwagesforthefollowingreasons:WorkerHealth:Betterpaidworkerseatabetterdietandthusaremoreproductive.WorkerTurnover:Ahigherpaidworkerislesslikelytolookforanotherjob.THETHEORYOFEFFICIENCYWAGESAfirmmaypreferhigherthanequilibriumwagesforthefollowingreasons:WorkerEffort:Higherwagesmotivateworkerstoputforwardtheirbesteffort.WorkerQuality:Higherwagesattractabetterpoolofworkerstoapplyforjobs.A

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ExerciseWhichofthefollowingwouldbemostlikelytoreducefrictionalunemployment?64A. Thegovteliminatestheminimumwage.B. Thegovtincreasesunemploymentinsurancebenefits.C. Anewlawbanslaborunions.D. Moreworkersposttheirresumesat,andmoreemployersusetofindsuitableworkerstohire.E. Sectoralshiftsemorefrequent.0A

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Answers65A. Thegovteliminatestheminimumwage.C. Anewlawbanslaborunions.Thesearelikelytoreduce

structuralunemployment,

notfrictionalunemployment.Whichofthefollowingwouldbemostlikel