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斑UKGovernmentGlobalTradePREFACETheDepartmentforBusinessandTrade'sGlobalTradeOutlookexploresthelong-termtrendsthatwillshapetheglobaleconomyandinternationaltradeinthecomingdecades.ThisisthesecondeditionoftheGlobalTradeOutlook,whichhasbeenupdatedforeconomicdevelopmentsoverthepast18months一includingthepost-pandemicrecoveryandthewarinUkraine.Asbefore,theOutlooksetsoutthebroadcontoursofhowglobalGDPandtradecouldevolveoutto2050(inChapters1&2).Inaddition,thisversionexploreshowtheworldeconomyhaschangedsincethefirsteditionoftheOutlookwaspublishedinSeptember2021(Chapter3).Thelong-termprojectionsintheOutlookarenotpredictionsofwhatwillhappen,norwhatHMGovernment(HMG)wouldliketohappen一theOutlookdoesnotincludejudgementsaboutthefutureefficacyofHMGpolicy.Rather,theprojectionsareonepossiblefuturethatcouldemergebasedonaninformedanalysisandneutralextrapolationofthetrendsobservedtoday.Theyarearoughguidetohowtheworldcouldevolve一notadefinitiveroadmapitwillfollow.AstheOutlookisfocusedonthelongerterm,weabstainfrommakingjudgementsabouttheneartermbytyingour2022-2027projectionstotheInternationalMonetaryFund/sOctober2022WorldEconomicOutlookforecasts.Inaddition,allUKprojectionsareconsistentwiththeindependentOfficeforBudgetResponsibility,sNovember2022forecastsintheneartermandJuly2022long-termeconomicdeterminantsto2050toavoidmakingjudgementsaboutHMGpolicy.TheOutlookhasbeenproducedtohelpinformpolicymakersandstrategistsandcontributetothewiderdebateaboutthefutureoftrade一includingaroundthelikelychallengesandopportunitiesthattheworldmayfaceintheyearstocome.Butitisjustonesourceamongmany.TheDepartmentforBusinessandTradecontinuestodrawonawiderangeofanalysisandinformationwhenformulatingitsstrategy.TOC\o"1-5"\h\zCONTENTS 11GLOBALECONOMICBACKDROP 8GlobalGDPgrowth 9Economiccentreofgravity 10\o"CurrentDocument"GDPtrendsbyregion 11Shiftsineconomicpower 12\o"CurrentDocument"Top30largesteconomies 13Globalpopulationgrowth 14Ageingandurbanisationtrends 15\o"CurrentDocument"Demographictrendsbyregion 16\o"CurrentDocument"Trendsinpercapitaincome 17Incomelevelsacrosstheworld 18Theglobalmiddleclass 19Middleclassbyregion 20GlobalGDPgrowthbysector 21RegionaldriversofsectoralGDP 22Long-termUKeconomicprospects 23THEFUTUREOFGLOBALTRADEGlobaltradegrowth 25Regionaldriversofglobaltrade 26\o"CurrentDocument"Tradetrendsbyregion 27Prospectsforregionaltradeblocs 28Shiftsintradingpower 29Top30largestimporters 30SectoralstructureoftradeandGDP 31\o"CurrentDocument"BoxA:Measuringtradebyvalue-added 32Globaltradegrowthbysector 33Regionaldriversofsectoraltrade 34UKsectorsofcomparativeadvantage 35BoxB:UKtradebyvalue-added 36UKtradeandtrendsinoverseasincome37Long-termUKtradeprospects 383ICHANGESTOTHEOUTLOOK 39ChangestoglobalGDPgrowth 40Shiftsintheeconomiccentreofgravity 41ChangestoregionalGDP 42ChangestothestructureofglobalGDP 43Changestolivingstandards 44Changestoglobaltradegrowth 45Changestoregionaltradeprospects 46Changestothestructureofglobaltrade 47ChangestotheUKoutlook 484lANALYTICALAPPROACH 49Overview 50ConditioningonIMFforecasts 51ConditioningonOBRforecasts 52\o"CurrentDocument"ProjectingGDPinthelongterm 53\o"CurrentDocument"Exchangerateassumptions 54Forecastcomparison 55Countrycoverage 56\o"CurrentDocument"Projectingtradeinthelong-term 57\o"CurrentDocument"ProjectingGDPandtradebysector 58Sectordefinitions 59\o"CurrentDocument"Driversofuncertainty:shocks&shifts 64\o"CurrentDocument"5IPROJECTIONTABLES 68\o"CurrentDocument"GDPProjections 69\o"CurrentDocument"ImportProjections 71\o"CurrentDocument"ExportProjections 73EXECUTIVESUMMARYPART2EXECUTIVESUMMARYPART2G'oba/GlobalGDPwillcontinuetoexpandoverthecomingdecades,butataslowingrate.Growthisprojectedtofallfrom2.7%peryearpriortothepandemic,to2.3%inthe2030sand1.8%inthe2040s.Slowerpopulationgrowthandageingworkforcesarepartlytoblameforthisdecline.G'oba/GlobalGDPwillcontinuetoexpandoverthecomingdecades,butataslowingrate.Growthisprojectedtofallfrom2.7%peryearpriortothepandemic,to2.3%inthe2030sand1.8%inthe2040s.Slowerpopulationgrowthandageingworkforcesarepartlytoblameforthisdecline.EXECUTIVESUMMARYPART1TheEconomicOutlookWhat'schangedsince2021?TheEconomicOutlookTheoutlookhasdimmed.Surginginflation-causedinpartbypandemic-relatedsupplydisruptionsandhigherI commoditypricesfromthewarin? IhHI?Ukraine-aresqueezinglivingstandards.Longer-termgrowthhasalsobeenmarkeddownduetoamajorshiftinChina'sdemographics.sector*ShiftsShiftssector*ShiftsShiftsTheworld'seconomiccentreofgravitywillcontinuetoshifteastward.7ofthelargestemergingeconomiesareprojectedtoovertaketheG7ineconomicsizeduringthe2030s.Theindustrialstructureoftheglobaleconomyisexpectedtograduallybecomemoreservices-oriented,asrisingincomesinemergingmarketsshiftspendingpatterns.By2035,servicesectorsareexpectedtoaccountfor77%ofglobalGDP,upfrom75%in2021.WeakergrowthinChinawillslowtheeastwardshiftineconomicgravity.ChinaisstilldestinedtoovertaketheUS,butitsprogressisslowing.China'spopulationisnowthoughttohavepeakedin2022anditsforecastfor2050hasbeencutby90millionpeople.Thewar-inducedspikeincommoditypriceshascausedthevalueofcommodity-intensivegoodstosurge.Thiswillsqueezespendingonother?sectorsintheshort-term,temporarilyinterruptingthedecades-longservicificationoftheglobaleconomy,whichwillgraduallyre-emerge.Aslivingstandardsrise,thenumberofhigh-incomecountriescouldgoupfrom58in2021to90by2050.Theworld'smiddleclasswillbeakeysourceofdemand.Thenumberofmiddle-classconsumerscouldalmostdoubleto3.5billionby2050,with90%ofgrowthfromoutsideEuropeandNorthAmerica.Theweakereconomicoutlookwillnotmateriallyaffectthegrowthinthenumberofpeopleintheglobalmiddleclass,butitwillaffecttheiraverageincomelevels.Theaverageglobalcitizenwillbe$900poorerperyearby2050(inrealterms)asaresultofthedowngradestotheoutlook.TheUKwasthe6thlargesteconomyintheworldin2021andisprojectedtoremaininthatpositionoutto2050.Astherestoftheworldgrowsricher,theUK'srelativeeconomicweightwilltendtofall-theUK'sshareofglobalGDPisprojectedtofallfrom3.3%in2021toaround2.7%by2050.However,theopportunitiesfortheUKtogrowviatradewillincrease.TheUK'seconomicprospectshavebeendowngradedintheshorttermasglobaldemandhasweakened,inflationhassurged,andlivingstandardshavebeensqueezed.By2050,thedownwardrevisionstoUKgrowthcloselymatchthoseoftheworldeconomy,meaningtheUK'srelativelong-termprospectsdonotshiftmaterially.TheUKisexpectedtoremainthe6thlargesteconomyintheworld.TheTradeOutlookTheTradeOutlookWhat'schangedsince2021?G\oba/G\oba/區(qū)GlobaltradeisprojectedtogrowbroadlyinlinewithglobalGDPoverthenext30years.By2050,itisexpectedtodoubleinrealtermsand?almostquadrupleindollartermstoreachcloseto$100tn.AswithGDP,globaltradeprospectshavedeteriorated.Surginginflationhascurtailednear-termdemand,while■downgradestoChina'sgrowthprospectsand,toalesserextent,Russia'seconomicisolationfromtheWestweighontradefurtherout.sector^/accountfor28%ofglobaltradeby Shiftssector^/accountfor28%ofglobaltradeby Shifts2035,upfrom25%pre-pandemic, :eegio間ShiftsEmergingeconomiesarelikelytoaccountforagrowingshareoftradeaseconomicpowershiftseast.7ofthelargestemergingeconomiesareprojectedtomatchtheG7'simportmarketsizeby2050.TheindustrialstructureofglobaltradeisverydifferenttoGDP一goodssectorsdominatetrade.Butglobaltradeisexpectedtograduallybecomemoreservices-orientedovertime.ServicesectorsareexpectedtoGrowthprospectsamongemergingeconomieshaveshiftedslightly-ChinaandRussiaareworseoff,whileIndia,AsiaPacificandtheMiddleEastarebetteroff.Thisraisesthegainsofagreeingtradedealswiththoselatterthreeregions(astheUKisattemptingwithIndia,theCPTTPandGCC).Highercommodityprices(fromthewarinUkraine)andaweaktravelsector(fromthepandemic)willtemporarilycauseglobaltradetobecomemore?goods-intensive.Butastheseshocksdissipate,thelong-termreorientationofglobaltradetowardservicesshouldresume.血nd$血nd$Globaltradeisconcentratedamonghigh-incomecountries.In2021,almost70%ofglobalimportdemandcamefromtheworld's58high-incomecountries.By2050,asprosperityspreadsand32morecountriesgraduatetohigh-incomestatus,thissharecouldriseto84%.Slowereconomicgrowthmeanstherewillbearound130millionfewerpeopleon'veryhighincomes'by2050thanpreviouslythought.Thisgroupofconsumers一who.havethesamepurchasingpowerastheaverageUKcitizen-areakeysourceofdemandforhigh-valueimports.Fewerrichconsumersmeansthemarketforconsumergoodswillbemorecompetitive.TheUKshouldremainoneofthetop10tradingnationsoutto2050.UKexportersarewell-placedtocapitaliseonanexpandingglobalmiddle-class,asricherpopulationstendtobuyhigh-valuegoodsandservicesthatUKbusinessesspecialisein.Butrapidtradegrowthelsewheremeans?that,ifpasttrendscontinueandabsentpolicychanges,theUKshareofglobalexportsislikelytofall.By2050,theUKisexpectedtoaccountfor2.5%ofglobalexports,downfrom3.1%in2021.ChangestotheUK'stradeprospectsbroadlytrackthoseoftheworldatlarge,ensuringitmaintainsitrelativepositionintheglobaleconomy.Buttheoutlookremainshighlyuncertain.WhiletheUKhasmanysectorsofstrength,.ithaslostgroundinothersrecently(e.g.theautomotivesector).Inthelongterm,UKtradeprospectswilldependonwhetherUKfirmscanadapttoafast-changingandincreasinglycompetitiveglobaltradingenvironment.99IDBTGlobalTradeOutlook99IDBTGlobalTradeOutlookGlobalGDPwillcontinuetoexpandoverthecomingdecades,butataslowingratePercentagechangeonayearearlierGlobalGDPwillcontinuetoexpandoverthecomingdecades,butataslowingratePercentagechangeonayearearlierGlobalGDPmattersfortrade.Thelargertheglobaleconomy,themoregoodsandservicesavailablefortrade.GlobalGDPgrewbyaroundtwo-thirdsinrealtermsbetween2000and2020一or2.7%peryearonaverage.Thepasttwodecadeshavebeenavolatileperiodintheworld'seconomichistory,punctuatedbytheGlobalFinancialCrisisandtheCovid-19pandemic(Chart1).Excludingcrisisyears,growthaveraged3.5%peryearinthe2000s(2000-2007)and3.0%peryearinthe2010s(2011-2019).Thisdecliningtrendreflectsarangeoffactors,includingslowergrowthintheworld'spopulation;aslowerpaceofcatch-upofemergingmarketstothetechnologicalfrontier;andweakereconomicdynamismatthefrontieritself一partlyreflectingaslowerpaceofglobalisation.GlobalGDPhasreboundedfromitspandemic-inducedlowsbutfacesaperiodofslowergrowthasinflation一fuelledbythewarinUkraine一squeezesincomes.The2022-2027projectionsinthisreportareconditionedontheIMF'sOctober2022forecasts,whichpredictagradualreturntopre-pandemicgrowthrates(seeSection4).Overthecomingdecades,theunderlyingpaceofglobalgrowthisexpectedtoslow一averaging2.3%peryearinthe2030sand1.8%inthe2040s.Theseprojectionsassumethefactorsthathavecausedglobalgrowthtoslowinthefirsttwentyyearsofthiscenturywillpersistinthedecadesahead.However,theseprojectionsaresubjecttowidebandsofuncertaintybothtodownsiderisks(iffurthereconomicshocksmaterialise)andupsidesurprises(iftechnologicalprogressaccelerates)一asdiscussedinSection4.Indollarterms,theglobaleconomyisexpectedtobeworth$370tnby2050,叩from$95tnin2021.Thisnear-fourfoldincreasepartlyreflectsrealeconomicgrowth(accountingforathirdoftheincrease),withtherestreflectingsignificantchangesinpricesandmarketexchangerates(Chart2).Globaleconomicgrowthisexpectedtosl^winthedecadesaheadChart1:GlobalGDPgrowthinrealterms7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%GLOBALGDPGROWTH2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050GLOBALGDPGROWTHSources:IMFWorldEconomicOutlookOctober2022andDBTcalculationsNotes:DatarefertorealGDPgrowthfortheworldeconomyin2021pricesconvertedusing2021marketexchangerates-notPurchasingPowerParity(PPP).AsdiscussedinSection4,allprojectionsinthisreportareexpressedinmarketexchangerates(either2021exchangeratesforrealGDPortimevaryingexchangeratesfornominalGDP)unlessstatedotherwisebecausemarketexchangesratesarethemorerelevantmetricforinternationaltrade.Theuncertaintybandrepresentsonestandarddeviationaroundtheprojectionbasedon2010-2019GDPoutturns.Indollarterms,globalGDPisexpectedtonearlyquadruplebetween2021and2050Chart2:GlobalGDPinnominaltermsSources:IMFWorldEconomicOutlookOctober2022andDBTcalculationsNotes:DatarefertonominalGDP(inclusiveofinflationandconvertedusingtime-varyingexchangerates).Theuncertaintybandrepresentsonestandarddeviationaroundtheprojectionbasedon2010-2019GDPoutturns.#IDBTGlobalTradeOutlook202120352050Growth:2021-35Growth:2021-50NominalShareofNominalShareofNominalShareofInrealtermsInnominaltermsInrealtermsInnominaltermsGDP($bn)worldGDPGDP($bn)worldGDPGDP($bn)worldGDPPerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativeIndividualEconomiesHungary1820.2%3960.2%6500.2%2.6%44%5.7%117%1.8%70%4.5%256%India31763.3%100815.2%280517.6%6.1%128%8.6%217%5.0%316%7.8%783%Indonesia11871.2%33121.7%80182.2%4.7%89%7.6%179%3.8%199%6.8%575%Iraq2070.2%4390.2%7740.2%3.0%51%5.5%112%2.4%98%4.7%274%Ireland5050.5%11380.6%19060.5%3.1%53%6.0%126%2.1%83%4.7%278%Iran3620.4%7460.4%10320.3%2.0%33%5.3%106%1.1%38%3.7%185%Israel4890.5%10120.5%20380.6%3.4%61%5.3%107%3.0%137%5.0%317%Italy21012.2%31381.6%44191.2%0.6%9%2.9%49%0.3%10%2.6%110%Japan49335.2%73263.7%103522.8%0.7%10%2.9%49%0.4%11%2.6%110%Jordan450.0%1000.1%2170.1%3.1%53%5.8%120%2.9%130%5.5%378%Kazakhstan1970.2%4360.2%10800.3%3.6%64%5.8%121%3.4%164%6.0%448%Kenya1110.1%2670.1%6860.2%5.2%103%6.5%142%4.4%248%6.5%521%Kuwait1360.1%2360.1%2920.1%2.4%40%4.0%74%0.9%29%2.7%115%Latvia390.0%970.0%1830.0%3.2%56%6.8%151%2.6%109%5.5%369%Lithuania660.1%1520.1%2600.1%2.3%37%6.2%131%1.8%68%4.9%297%Luxembourg870.1%1640.1%2960.1%2.1%33%4.7%89%1.9%71%4.3%241%Macao300.0%990.1%1910.1%6.6%145%8.9%230%4.4%251%6.6%537%Malaysia3730.4%10250.5%21350.6%4.2%79%7.5%175%3.3%156%6.2%472%Mexico12981.4%24331.2%43291.2%1.9%30%4.6%88%1.6%58%4.2%234%Morocco1430.1%2970.2%5820.2%3.0%51%5.4%108%2.8%121%5.0%307%Myanmar(Burma)650.1%1280.1%3770.1%3.3%58%5.0%97%3.2%148%6.2%479%Nepal360.0%1090.1%3030.1%4.8%92%8.2%203%4.0%214%7.6%746%Netherlands10141.1%18270.9%31770.9%1.6%25%4.3%80%1.5%55%4.0%213%NewZealand2470.3%4450.2%8940.2%2.2%36%4.3%80%2.1%81%4.5%262%Nigeria4420.5%15990.8%33190.9%2.8%48%9.6%262%2.6%108%7.2%652%Norway4820.5%7410.4%13030.4%1.7%27%3.1%54%1.6%59%3.5%170%Oman860.1%1650.1%2640.1%2.8%48%4.8%92%2.0%75%3.9%207%Pakistan3480.4%8790.4%22560.6%4.7%91%6.8%152%4.3%242%6.7%548%Panama640.1%1620.1%3800.1%4.5%86%6.9%154%4.1%224%6.4%497%Paraguay390.0%870.0%1770.0%3.2%54%6.0%125%2.7%118%5.4%355%Peru2260.2%4520.2%9140.2%2.9%48%5.1%100%2.6%110%4.9%304%Philippines3940.4%10980.6%35531.0%5.6%116%7.6%179%4.9%303%7.9%802%Poland6790.7%16740.9%30050.8%2.4%40%6.7%147%1.7%61%5.3%343%Portugal2500.3%4750.2%7120.2%1.8%28%4.7%90%1.1%37%3.7%185%Qatar1800.2%3630.2%5970.2%2.7%44%5.1%102%2.0%76%4.2%232%Romania2840.3%6940.4%12580.3%3.0%52%6.6%144%2.1%85%5.3%343%Russia17791.9%28561.5%44851.2%0.4%6%3.4%61%0.2%7%3.2%152%SaudiArabia8340.9%15770.8%25040.7%3.1%53%4.7%89%2.0%80%3.9%200%Serbia630.1%1760.1%3640.1%3.7%67%7.6%178%3.3%156%6.2%477%Singapore3970.4%7860.4%13230.4%2.3%38%5.0%98%1.7%61%4.2%233%Slovakia1150.1%2480.1%4020.1%2.3%37%5.7%116%1.6%58%4.4%249%Slovenia620.1%1320.1%2190.1%2.4%40%5.5%113%1.8%67%4.5%255%SouthAfrica4190.4%6870.4%12570.3%1.6%24%3.6%64%1.5%54%3.9%200%SouthKorea18111.9%31211.6%49501.3%1.9%30%4.0%72%1.2%41%3.5%173%Spain14261.5%25291.3%36281.0%1.6%25%4.2%77%0.9%28%3.3%154%SriLanka890.1%1360.1%3420.1%1.5%23%3.1%53%2.0%78%4.7%284%Sudan350.0%1020.1%2150.1%4.9%94%7.9%191%4.3%241%6.4%512%Sweden6360.7%12900.7%22570.6%1.8%28%5.2%103%1.7%63%4.5%255%Switzerland8000.8%15110.8%26210.7%1.4%21%4.6%89%1.3%45%4.2%228%Taiwan7750.8%14590.7%24780.7%2.1%33%4.6%88%1.7%61%4.1%220%Tanzania700.1%2330.1%6140.2%6.2%131%8.9%231%5.5%369%7.8%773%Thailand5060.5%10650.5%18310.5%2.8%47%5.5%111%2.0%80%4.5%262%Tunisia470.0%820.0%1500.0%2.4%39%4.1%75%2.0%77%4.1%220%Turkey8180.9%22221.1%49811.3%3.1%54%7.4%172%2.6%113%6.4%509%Uganda430.0%1350.1%3400.1%5.9%124%8.5%214%5.2%329%7.4%692%Ukraine2000.2%3850.2%8450.2%-0.2%-2%4.8%93%1.0%32%5.1%323%UnitedArabEmirates4200.4%9800.5%20110.5%4.1%75%6.2%134%3.4%166%5.6%379%UnitedKingdom31323.3%56712.9%98612.7%1.8%28%4.3%81%1.6%58%4.0%215%UnitedStates2299624.1%4036820.6%6804018.4%1.6%25%4.1%76%1.6%57%3.8%196%Uruguay590.1%1110.1%2070.1%2.5%41%4.5%86%1.9%73%4.4%249%Uzbekistan690.1%2750.1%6900.2%5.1%100%10.4%297%4.6%273%8.3%897%Vietnam3660.4%13100.7%34380.9%6.3%136%9.5%258%5.3%341%8.0%839%Zimbabwe330.0%570.0%1000.0%2.8%48%4.0%72%2.4%96%3.9%204%GDPPROJECTIONSIMPORTPROJECTIONSImportProjections202120352050Growth:2021-35Growth:2021-50NominalShareofNominalShareofNominalShareofInrealtermsIInnominaltermsInrealtermsInnominaltermsimports($bn)worldimportsimports($bn)worldimportsimports($bn)worldimportsPerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativeWorld26827100.0%54048100.0%99388100.0%3.^%54%5.^%101%2.^%104%4.^%270%AdvancedEconomies1677262.5%3084957.1%5059050.9%2.4%40%4.4%84%1.9%71%3.9%202%EmergingMarket&DevelopingEconomies1005537.5%2319842.9%4879849.1%4.2%77%6.2%131%3.3%160%5.6%385%RegionsAfrica7022.6%16543.1%39203.9%6.7%147%6.3%135%5.0%310%6.1%458%AsiaPacific428016.0%906016.8%1665416.8%3.7%67%5.5%112%2.9%126%4.8%289%China&HongKong385114.4%787814.6%1475114.8%2.9%50%5.2%105%2.2%87%4.7%283%E.Europe&CentralAsia9223.4%19643.6%41044.1%3.1%53%5.5%113%2.5%105%5.3%345%Europe891433.2%1739532.2%2887229.1%2.8%47%4.9%95%2.1%82%4.1%224%LatinAmerica13955.2%26644.9%49805.0%2.6%43%4.7%91%2.3%95%4.5%257%MiddleEast9463.5%22294.1%43214.3%3.9%71%6.3%136%3.1%146%5.4%357%NorthAmerica401215.0%698812.9%1193012.0%2.0%31%4.0%74%1.8%66%3.8%197%SouthAsia9053.4%27185.0%72517.3%6.4%139%8.2%200%5.1%322%7.4%701%UnitedKingdom9003.4%14972.8%26042.6%1.4%21%3.7%66%1.4%50%3.7%189%IndividualEconomiesAlgeria420.2%670.1%1100.1%0.8%11%3.5%62%0.9%31%3.4%162%Angola190.1%410.1%640.1%3.9%70%5.6%115%2.6%113%4.3%238%Argentina720.3%1180.2%2070.2%2.4%40%3.5%63%1.9%72%3.7%186%Australia2971.1%6141.1%10571.1%3.4%59%5.3%107%2.5%107%4.5%256%Austria2681.0%4740.9%7520.8%2.3%38%4.2%77%1.6%58%3.6%180%Azerbaijan160.1%260.0%400.0%1.6%25%3.3%57%1.3%47%3.2%147%Bahrain280.1%520.1%940.1%3.1%53%4.6%88%2.5%104%4.3%237%Bangladesh850.3%2840.5%7610.8%6.3%134%9.0%233%5.5%375%7.8%792%Belarus450.2%780.1%930.1%1.2%19%4.0%73%0.7%24%2.5%103%Belgium5141.9%9041.7%14791.5%2.7%46%4.1%76%2.1%81%3.7%188%Bolivia110.0%250.0%510.1%3.5%63%6.1%130%2.7%118%5.5%374%Brazil2981.1%5291.0%9581.0%1.7%26%4.2%77%1.9%73%4.1%222%Bulgaria500.2%1060.2%1770.2%3.2%55%5.5%112%2.5%107%4.4%253%Cameroon100.0%220.0%560.1%5.3%107%6.2%131%4.6%268%6.3%487%Canada6092.3%11452.1%20802.1%2.5%42%4.6%88%2.3%91%4.3%242%Chile1000.4%1670.3%3150.3%1.0%15%3.7%67%1.4%51%4.0%215%China309411.5%664312.3%1293813.0%3.1%54%5.6%115%2.4%98%5.1%318%Colombia700.3%1260.2%2490.3%4.6%88%4.3%80%3.6%180%4.5%256%CostaRica220.1%580.1%1290.1%4.3%80%7.1%161%3.3%156%6.2%479%Coted'Ivoire160.1%420.1%1150.1%5.4%109%7.3%168%5.4%361%7.1%633%Croatia360.1%710.1%1290.1%3.2%55%4.9%96%2.4%98%4.5%258%Czechia1960.7%3560.7%6330.6%2.7%45%4.3%81%2.4%97%4.1%222%DRCongo220.1%760.1%2340.2%7.1%163%9.2%244%6.3%494%8.5%954%Denmark2100.8%3700.7%6960.7%2.1%35%4.1%76%2.1%84%4.2%232%DominicanRepublic290.1%820.2%1970.2%4.0%74%7.8%187%4.0%208%6.9%592%Ecuador290.1%490.1%850.1%2.5%41%3.9%71%2.1%83%3.8%198%Egypt940.3%2300.4%5510.6%5.4%110%6.6%145%4.5%260%6.3%487%ElSalvador160.1%260.0%410.0%1.9%30%3.8%68%1.4%51%3.4%162%Estonia290.1%600.1%1170.1%3.2%55%5.3%106%2.9%129%4.9%302%Ethiopia210.1%740.1%2530.3%7.3%166%9.4%253%6.6%546%9.0%1114%Finland1160.4%2050.4%3110.3%1.9%31%4.2%77%1.3%48%3.5%168%France9583.6%18133.4%27672.8%2.5%40%4.7%89%1.8%70%3.7%189%Germany17716.6%30395.6%52125.2%2.7%45%3.9%72%2.0%77%3.8%194%Ghana260.1%520.1%1720.2%6.0%126%5.2%102%4.8%292%6.7%564%Greece1030.4%1750.3%2880.3%2.2%35%3.9%71%1.7%62%3.6%181%Guatemala280.1%640.1%1450.1%3.9%71%6.2%133%3.0%136%5.9%427%HongKongSAR7342.7%11762.2%17001.7%1.9%29%3.4%60%1.1%39%2.9%132%Notes:Forbrevity,thistable(andtheoneoverleaf)includesindividualeconomyprojectionsforthe100largestimportersonly(byNominalUS$importsin2021).‘Advancedeconomies'includesall39countriescategorisedas‘a(chǎn)dvanced'bytheIMF,while‘EmergingandDevelopingeconomies'includesallothereconomies.202120352050Growth:2021-35Growth:2021-50NominalShareofNominalShareofNominalShareofInrealtermsInnominaltermsInrealtermsInnominaltermsimports($bn)worldimportsimports($bn)worldimportsimports($bn)worldimportsPerYear1(CumulativePerYear1CumulativePerYear1CumulativePerYear(cumulativeIndividualEconomiesHungary1470.5%3090.6%5560.6%3.6%64%5.5%111%2.6%109%4.7%278%India7762.9%23354.3%62546.3%6.6%144%8.2%201%5.1%327%7.5%706%Indonesia2180.8%5431.0%14401.4%5.4%108%6.7%149%4.6%272%6.7%561%Iraq480.2%1040.2%1660.2%3.2%55%5.7%118%2.1%83%4.4%246%Ireland4711.8%12772.4%18461.9%3.9%70%7.4%171%2.6%110%4.8%292%Iran660.2%1050.2%1460.1%-3.1%-36%3.4%59%-1.4%-33%2.8%120%Israel1210.4%2850.5%6240.6%4.6%89%6.3%136%3.9%202%5.8%417%Italy6372.4%11282.1%15891.6%2.2%36%4.2%77%1.1%37%3.2%150%Japan9423.5%16633.1%24732.5%2.0%32%4.1%77%1.3%44%3.4%163%Jordan230.1%470.1%1040.1%3.6%64%5.1%102%3.2%151%5.3%346%Kazakhstan470.2%920.2%2280.2%3.3%58%4.9%96%3.3%155%5.6%384%Kenya220.1%600.1%1370.1%5.2%105%7.4%172%4.1%220%6.5%527%Kuwait510.2%1010.2%1220.1%3.1%53%5.0%98%1.1%38%3.1%140%Latvia260.1%460.1%920.1%2.8%46%4.3%80%2.6%113%4.5%257%Lithuania500.2%1040.2%1990.2%3.3%58%5.4%107%2.9%129%4.9%299%Luxembourg1390.5%2420.4%4280.4%2.0%31%4.0%74%1.7%64%4.0%208%MacaoSAR230.1%590.1%1140.1%4.5%85%7.0%159%3.4%166%5.7%400%Malaysia2260.8%4980.9%9851.0%3.6%64%5.8%120%2.8%120%5.2%336%Mexico5452.0%10692.0%18861.9%2.5%42%4.9%96%2.1%84%4.4%246%Morocco600.2%1400.3%3050.3%4.2%78%6.2%133%3.8%197%5.8%408%Myanmar(Burma)90.0%160.0%460.0%5.8%120%4.5%86%4.2%229%5.9%421%Nepal170.1%430.1%1130.1%3.4%60%6.9%153%3.2%148%6.8%568%Netherlands8113.0%15912.9%27632.8%2.9%49%4.9%96%2.3%94%4.3%241%NewZealand630.2%1250.2%2490.3%3.8%69%5.1%100%3.0%133%4.9%297%Nigeria650.2%1010.2%2560.3%1.0%15%3.2%55%2.3%93%4.8%292%Norway1400.5%2420.4%4360.4%2.5%41%4.0%72%2.2%88%4.0%210%Oman300.1%640.1%1280.1%4.1%77%5.6%115%3.4%162%5.2%331%Pakistan760.3%2300.4%6560.7%5.6%114%8.2%201%5.1%327%7.7%759%Panama250.1%670.1%1540.2%4.8%93%7.4%171%4.2%232%6.5%526%Paraguay130.1%290.1%590.1%3.4%60%5.5%113%2.9%132%5.2%340%Peru590.2%1110.2%2190.2%3.1%54%4.6%89%2.9%131%4.7%274%Philippines1270.5%4560.8%14101.4%8.5%212%9.5%258%6.4%507%8.6%1008%Poland3821.4%9381.7%15451.6%3.5%62%6.6%146%2.2%89%4.9%305%Portugal1120.4%2040.4%3130.3%2.0%31%4.4%82%1.3%48%3.6%179%Qatar610.2%1440.3%2390.2%2.6%44%6.3%136%2.0%77%4.8%291%Romania1320.5%3700.7%6540.7%4.9%95%7.6%180%3.4%162%5.7%395%Russia3801.4%5831.1%9471.0%0.7%10%3.1%54%0.5%15%3.2%149%SaudiArabia2150.8%5130.9%8240.8%4.90%6.4%139%3.0%134%4.7%284%Serbia400.1%1050.2%2240.2%4.5%84%7.1%163%3.9%206%6.1%458%Singapore6092.3%12982.4%19091.9%3.6%63%5.6%113%2.0%79%4.0%213%Slovakia1070.4%1940.4%3410.3%2.5%41%4.4%82%2.2%87%4.1%219%Slovenia480.2%1080.2%1910.2%3.8%67%6.0%125%2.8%124%4.9%298%SouthAfrica1050.4%2660.5%5070.5%3.6%63%6.9%154%2.6%111%5.6%384%SouthKorea7012.6%13162.4%19382.0%2.7%45%4.6%88%1.9%70%3.6%177%Spain4761.8%9771.8%13481.4%2.7%44%5.3%105%1.7%63%3.7%183%SriLanka220.1%430.1%950.1%3.2%56%4.9%97%2.4%97%5.2%330%Sudan110.0%310.1%650.1%6.0%127%8.0%192%4.9%300%6.5%516%Sweden2651.0%4620.9%9020.9%2.7%45%4.1%74%2.4%97%4.3%241%Switzerland4621.7%10251.9%18481.9%2.5%42%5.8%122%2.0%78%4.9%300%Taiwan4091.5%7211.3%12601.3%2.7%45%4.1%77%2.0%78%4.0%208%Tanzania120.0%380.1%940.1%7.0%156%8.8%227%5.6%383%7.4%702%Thailand2891.1%6031.1%11341.1%3.9%71%5.4%109%2.9%129%4.8%293%Tunisia240.1%500.1%1160.1%4.3%80%5.3%107%3.9%201%5.6%384%Turkey2861.1%8171.5%18871.9%5.1%100%7.8%186%3.7%191%6.7%561%Uganda110.0%240.0%520.1%4.0%73%6.0%126%3.6%181%5.6%382%Ukraine840.3%1290.2%3480.3%1.1%17%3.1%53%1.4%49%5.0%313%UnitedArabEmirates3421.3%8521.6%18091.8%4.3%81%6.7%149%3.7%186%5.9%430%UnitedKingdom9003.4%14972.8%26042.6%1.4%21%3.7%66%1.4%50%3.7%189%UnitedStates340312.7%584410.8%98499.9%1.9%29%3.9%72%1.7%62%3.7%189%Uruguay150.1%260.0%630.1%3.8%69%4.0%73%3.2%148%5.0%316%Uzbekistan280.1%1220.2%2870.3%9.4%251%11.2%339%6.5%515%8.4%934%Vietnam3381.3%10792.0%24542.5%7.3%169%8.6%219%5.6%382%7.1%626%Zimbabwe80.0%150.0%300.0%33.9%5840%4.6%88%16.8%8999%4.7%283%IMPORTPROJECTIONSEXPORTPROJECTIONSExportProjections202120352050Growth:2021-35Growth:2021-50NominalShareofNominalShareofNominalShareofInrealtermsInnominaltermsInrealtermsInnominaltermsexports($bn)worldexportsexports($bn)worldexportsexports($bn)worldexportsPerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativePerYearCumulativeWorld27815100.0%54773100.0%100137100.0%2^8%48%5.0%97%2.3%91%4.5%260%AdvancedEconomies1710561.5%3182658.1%5245552.4%1.8%28%4.5%86%1.7%65%3.9%207%EmergingMarket&DevelopingEconomies1071038.5%2294841.9%4768247.6%2.5%42%5.6%114%3.0%134%5.3%345%RegionsAfrica6152.2%14712.7%35043.5%4.5%85%6.4%139%4.0%211%6.2%470%AsiaP