Sipri-和平環(huán)境：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)新時(shí)代的安全（英）-

SECURITYINANEWERAOFRISK1

ENVIRONMENTOFPEACE

Securityin

aneweraofrisk

2ENVIRONMENTOFPEACE

Foreword2

Executivesummary4

1Twocrisesandadeficit8

2Aneweraofrisk26

3Ajustandpeacefultransition42

4Foundationsofanewsecurity60

5TowardsanEnvironmentofPeace72

Conclusion81

References82

SECURITYINANEWERAOFRISK3

Humanityhastheknowledgeandskillstoescapefromthetroubleinwhichwefindourselves.Wecandrawhopefromtheexamplesofcollaborativeactionsbeingtaken.

FOREWORD

Thespectreofnuclearwarthreatenedmassannihilationandglobalradioactivefallout.

Governmentsbegantheirsearchforcooperativesolutionsatthe1972UnitedNationsConferenceontheHumanEnvironmentinStockholm,whose50thanniversarywemarkthisyear.Theconferencesignifiedarecognitionthatcommonthreatscanonlyhavecommonsolutionsandsparkedaglobalconsensusonaction.ItcatalysedtheformationoftheUNEnvironmentProgrammeandtheestablishmentofenvironmentministriesingovernmentsacrosstheworld.Itledtoagreementsthathaveaddressedissuessuchasacidrainanddestructionoftheozonelayer.

Thesesuccesses,manyachievedcooperatively,shouldgiveuscauseforoptimismthisyear,whichwillseeleadersconveninginJunefortheStockholm+50summit:‘Ahealthyplanetfortheprosperityofall—ourresponsibility,ouropportunity.’EnvironmentofPeacedemonstratesclearlythatahealthyplanetisessentialforsecurityaswellasprosperity,andshowsthatincludingthe

fulldiversityofpeopleinsolutionsisessentialforsuccess.Inthiscontext,weshouldespeciallymarkandcelebratetheroleofoftenmarginalizedgroupssuchasIndigenousPeoples,womenandyouth,whoseinsightsareofteninvisibletotop-downdecisionmaking.

IhopethatyouwilltakeawaythreeprincipalconclusionsfromEnvironmentofPeace.First,thatthereisaprofoundneedtobeginanticipatingandmanagingtheincreasingriskstopeacestemmingfromtheinterlinkedsecurityandenvironmentalcrises.Second,thatwithoutastepchangeinactiononallaspectsofenvironmentaldegradation—cuttinggreenhousegasemissions,reducingpollution,arrestingthedeclineinspeciesandecosystems,andmore—thesecuritychallengewillinevitablygetworse.

Thethirdconclusionisthatthereishope.Humanityhastheknowledgeandskillstoescapefromthetroubleinwhichwefindourselves.Wecandrawhopefromtheexamplesofcollaborativeactionsbeingtakenbygovernments,civilsociety,localcommunitiesandmultinationalgroupingsthataresuccessfullyaddressinghazardoussituations.Theneedistolearnfromthemandscaleup.Theprinciplesandrecommendationsattheendofthisreportpointtheway.

Despitethesebrightnotes,wearedeliveringareport

thatlaysbareaprofoundproblemwithdeep-lyingrootsandcomplexmanifestations.AndwearedeliveringitaspeopleacrosstheworldwrestlewiththeimpactsoftheCovid-19pandemicandtheconsequencesofRussianaggressioninUkraine.Therefore,somemightsaythisisnotthetime.Iwouldarguetheopposite:thisisexactlythetime.Foronething,ithastobe,giventheurgencyoftheproblem;foranother,addressingthevulnerabilitiesexposedbyrecenteventswillalsobuildresilienceagainstescalatingenvironmentalharmandadarkeningsecurityhorizon.

Asweenteraneweraofriskcreatedbytheconjunctionofthetwincrises,letusrecallourhistoryandrebuildthecooperativespiritofStockholm’72onissuesthatthreatenusall.Throughcooperationwecanandmustfindawayfromdarknesstolightoncemore,andbuildalastingenvironmentofpeace.

4ENVIRONMENTOFPEACE

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

*Fragilityisdefinedas‘thecombination

ofexposuretoriskandinsufficient

copingcapacityofthestate,systems

and/orcommunitiestomanage,

absorbormitigatethoserisks’(OECD).

BehindtheheadlinesofwarinEuropeandtheaftershocksoftheCovid-19pandemic,ourworldisbeingdrawnintoablackholeofdeepeningtwincrisesinsecurityandtheenvironment.Indicatorsofinsecurityarerising,whileindicatorsofenvironmentalintegrityaresinking.Themixistoxic,profoundanddamaging;andinstitutionswiththepowertofindsolutions,includinggovernments,arewakingupfartooslowly.

Intermsofsecurity,thereisanincreaseintheincidenceofconflictandthenumbersofdeadanddisplacedpeople—atrendinexistencelongbeforetheRussianinvasionofUkraine.Spendingonarmsandmilitaryforcesisrising;theuseofnuclearweaponsseemstobelessunthinkablethanitwaspreviously.Intermsoftheenvironment,manifestationsofdeclineincludemoreextremeweather,risingseas,constraintsonwateravailability,thedeclineinmammalsandpollinatinginsects,plasticpollution,dyingcoralreefsandshrinkingforests.

Thedarkeningsecurityhorizonpresentsonelayerofriskstopeace;environmentaldeclineaddsasecondlayer.Theinteractionofthetwotrendsproducesathird,morecomplexsetofrisks,whosesignificancehumanityisonlybeginningtograsp.

However,itisclearthatthetwocrisesdointeract.Countriesfacingthehighestlevelsofecologicalthreatarestatisticallylikelytobethosewherepeaceisatitsmosttenuous.Theyalsotendtobemarkedbyfragilityandlowcapacityforresilience.*Forthemostpart,thesecountrieshavedonelittletocausetheglobalenvironmentalcrisis,buttheybearthebruntofitseffects.HalfoftheongoingUnitedNationspeaceoperationsareincountrieswiththehighestexposuretoclimatechangeimpacts.Thesecorrelationsarenotcoincidences.

ThisistheentrypointforEnvironmentofPeace.

Thelinkbetweenenvironmentalintegrity,peaceandhumanwell-beingshouldnotreallybecontentious.Sincethe1972UNConferenceontheHumanEnvironmentinStockholm,countrieshaverecognizedthatecologicalintegrityisessentialtohumandevelopment.InagreeingtheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsin2015,governmentsdeclared:‘Therecanbenosustainabledevelopmentwithoutpeaceandnopeacewithoutsustainabledevelopment.’In2021,theUNHumanRightsCouncilformallyrecognizedahealthyenvironmentasafundamentalhumanright.

SECURITYINANEWERAOFRISK5

Reducinginsecurity

andconflictin

thisnewera

ofriskmeans

fundamentally

changinghowwe

thinkaboutpeace.

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Yetourenvironmentisrapidlydegrading.Althougheverygovernmentisawareofclimatechangeandwiderenvironmentaldecline,andsomehavemadeprogressonissuessuchaspollutionanddeforestation,theyarecollectivelyfailingtotacklethemajordriverswithsufficienturgency.Amongotherimpacts,degradingthenaturalenvironmentmakesitmorelikelythatdiseaseswillspreadfromwildanimalsintothehumanpopulation.Andthelasttwoyearshaveshownhowdevastatingsuchdiseasescanbe.

Beyondtheirdirecteffects,climatechangeandthewiderenvironmentalcrisiscontributetoinsecurity.Theevidenceshowsthattheyoftengeneratesocialandpoliticalinstability,which,unresolved,canescalateintoviolence.Armedconflictnotonlydamagestheenvironment,butitmakeseffectiveenvironmentalgovernancehardertoachieve.Confrontation,disputesandconflictalsosourtheinternationalatmosphereforarrivingatcooperativeresponsestoenvironmentalchallenges.

Becauseoftheseinterlinkages,theideaofsecuritythatdrivesthisreportisaninclusiveone.Thetraditionaldefence-orstate-centredstandpointtellspartofthestoryofsecurityandinsecurity.Themorepeople-centred,humansecurityconcepttellsanotherpart.Foratrulypeacefulandsecureworld,weneedtogetbothpartsright.

What,then,istobedone?

Astheevidencewillshow,reducinginsecurityandconflictinthisneweraofriskmeans,asastartingpoint,fundamentallychanginghowwethinkaboutpeace.Withenvironmentaldegradationpartofthesecurityproblem,restoringenvironmentalintegrityneedstobepartofthesecuritysolution.Thisalsoimpliesanoverwhelmingneedformoreambitiousandmoreeffectivecooperationbetweengovernmentsonpeaceandsecurityateverylevel,fromconceptualtooperational;becausewhenthethreataffectsallcountries,militarizationandnationalassertivenessareclearlynotgoingtobeaneffectiveresponse.TheymayperhapsbeinevitablewhenfacedwithacutesituationssuchastheinvasionofUkraine,buttheycannotbeasolutiontothebroaderandescalatingcrises.Inthelongrun,cooperationisself-interest.

Ifonedefiningcharacteristicofaneffectiveresponseiscooperation,anotherisadaptability.Thecrisesaregoingtoevolve,creatingrisksandimpactsthatcannotbepreciselyknown.Theresponsesofpeoplewillalsochange.Decisionmakerswillneedtointervene,learnfromexperienceandinterveneagain.

Currently,governmentsarespendingmoneyinwaysthatstokeinsecurityratherthantacklingit.Subsidiesthatfundenvironmentalharmbysupportingactivitiessuchasfossilfuelextractionanduse,overfishinganddeforestationamounttotrillionsofdollarsperyear.Giventhelinkbetweenenvironmentaldeclineandinsecurityandconflictrisk,thesecanalsoberegardedasconflictsubsidies.Lookedatthroughthislens,thewisdomofcontinuingwiththemappearsdoublyquestionable.

Atthesametime,theworld’srichestcountriesareconspicuouslyfailingtogeneratetheinternationalfinancingneededtotackleclimatechangeandbiodiversityloss—furtherexacerbating

6ENVIRONMENTOFPEACE

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Whenthe

threataffectsall

countries,national

assertivenessis

notgoingtobean

effectiveresponse.

Cooperationis

selfinterest.

insecurityandconflictrisk.Moreover,fundstoaidadaptationtoenvironmentaldeclineandtobuildresiliencearenotbeingspentinthemostneededareas;themostfragilestates,whichbydefinitionhavetheclearestneed,receivejust1/80thpercapitaoftheclimatefinancingthatflowstonon-fragilestates.

Resilienceallowscommunitiesandcountriestosurviveshockswithoutresortingtoconflict,andtorebuildswiftlyafterwards.Itisessentialforsecurityinallitsforms.Yetthesecurityandenvironmentalcriseseroderesilience.

Combattingvulnerabilitiesandbuildingresilienceagainstclimateshockswillalsoprovideabufferagainstnon-climaterelatedthreats.In2010,aheatwavefuelledbyclimatechangecontributed,viaadecimatedgrainharvestinRussiaandaconsequentspikeinbreadprices,totheArabSpring.In2022,RussianandUkrainiangrainharvestsarelikelytobesubstantiallylowerthanusual,aprospectthatisalreadypushingworldpricesdangerouslyhighagain.Differentcause,similarrisk;increasingresiliencewouldprotectagainstboth.

Resiliencecanamelioratetherisksposedbyenvironmentaldegradation,butitcannottacklethecauses.Haltingandthenreversingenvironmentaldeclineinvolvesmakingtransitionsinmanyaspectsofsocietyatunprecedentedpaceandscale.Buttransitionscanfractureanddislocatecommunities.Acrosstheworld,particularlyintheGlobalSouth,initiativesinbiofuels,hydropower,natureconservationandclimateadaptation—oftenconceivedwithgoodintentions—haveregularlystokedinsecurityandconflict.Manytimes,theyfailbecauseofit.Theenvironmentalcrisisisnowtoobigtopermitfailure;so,themyriadtransitionsneededinenergy,transportation,industryandabovealllandusehavetowork.Thatmeansactivelyinvolvingcommunitiesintheirdesignandimplementationinordertoachievejustandpeacefultransitions,whicharethenmorelikelytobesuccessfulones.

Thenatureofgovernmentsandtheirrelationshipwiththeircitizensisalsogoingtobekeytomakinggooddecisions.Therecentriseofautocratsandpopulistshasnotbeengoodforeithersecurityortheenvironmentandhasunderminedtheresilienceofglobalinstitutionsthatfacilitatecooperationonbothissues.Tacklingshared,complexproblemswillbemucheasierinaworldwheregovernmentstreattheircitizensandeachotherwithrespect,involvetheircitizensindecisionmaking,andgroundtheirpoliciesinevidence.

Asweshowinthisreport,therearerealexamplesofhopetodrawon.IntheUNsystem,atregionallevelandwithincountries,thelinksbetweenenvironmentaldegradationandinsecurityareinplacesbeingtakenmoreseriously.Mostgovernmentsareopentocooperationontheseissues,andinsomecasestheyarepursuingit.Non-governmentalorganizationsareactivelybuildingpeacethroughenvironmentalenhancement.Theseexamplesaremodelsthatcanbeupscaled,providedthevisionandwillarethere.

Weconcludebypresentingaseriesofsixrecommendationsforaction,andasetoffiveprinciplestoguideit.Theprinciplesincludecooperationandadaptability,which,intheface

SECURITYINANEWERAOFRISK7

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

ofanunpredictablychangingrisklandscape,arejustcommonsense.Soisinclusion,becausesolutionsinwhichallpartieshaveasayaremorelikelytosucceed.Solutionswillhavetotakeaccountofthefactthattheproblemisbothpressinganddeep-rooted,meaningthatactionhastobeginimmediatelyyetbeguidedbyfar-sightedvision.

SomeofourrecommendationsforactionconcerntheUNsystem,someareaimedatnationalgovernments,andsomeconnectwiththeprivatesector,civilsocietyandothersectors.Althoughmanytypesofentitycanandshouldplayarole,governmentsarecentralduetotheiruniquepoweraslegislators,rule-makersandallocatorsofresources.Governmentscanalsoenactchangequickly;andtimeisundeniablyshort.Chapter5setsouttherecommendationsindetail,butinsummary:

1Addressthelinkedcriseswithjointsolutions.Identifyandimplementmeasuresthatbuildbothpeaceandenvironmentalintegrity.

2Investinpreparednessandresilience.Buildcapacitytodetectsignsofgrowingthreatsanddefusetensions.

3Financepeace,notrisk.Meetinternationalfundingobligations,ensurefundingreachesthemostfragilecommunitiesandendconflictsubsidies.

4Deliverajustandpeacefultransition.Assessandaddresspossiblenegativeoutcomesofpro-environmentmeasuresbeforeimplementation.

5Bedeliberatelyinclusive.Involvemarginalizedgroupsfullyindecisionmakingandsharethebenefits.

6Research,educate,inform.Understandandcommunicatetherisksandbuildcooperationthrougheducation.

Allourrecommendationscan,giventhewill,beimplementedwithinafewyears.Wewouldurgegovernments,communitiesandotherdecision-makinginstitutionstocommittodoingso.ActivecrisessuchasthatunfoldinginUkrainemaycommandattentionfortheirduration,butenvironmentaldegradationwillcontinueuntilgovernmentsacttoendit,aswillthecreationofcomplexrisksbytheinteractionofthetwincrises.

Securityandenvironmentalintegrityarebothheadedinthewrongdirection,tothedetrimentofeverycountryandourcollective

commongood.Itisamutuallydamagingsituationdeservingofamutuallybeneficialsolution.

1

TWO

CRISES

Withthetollofconflictrisingandthenaturalenvironmentdegrading

AND

fast,ourworldisfacingtwincrises—andgovernmentsareonlyjustwakinguptothescaleoftherisksthesecrisesposetohumanity.

ADEFICIT

9

TWOCRISESANDADEFICIT

CHAPTER1

Forestsloggedoutofexistence,mountain

glaciersmeltingaway,plasticpollution

permeatinglandandocean.Moredeaths

inconflict,moremoneyspentonweapons,

morepeoplegoinghungry.Humansociety

maybericherthanitwas,butitisalso

markedlylesssecure.Governmentshave

beenlookingtheotherway,andinsome

casesmakingmattersworsebyactively

stokinginsecurity,fearandenvironmental

degradation.Withoutafreshapproach,

thetwincrisescanonlydeepen.

ThegrowthofthehumanfootprintontheEarthhasbeenastonishinglyrapid(seefigures1A–1F).In1950,humanitynumbered2.5billionpeople,withglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)around$9trillion.By2020,just70yearslater,thepopulationhadtripledto7.7billion,whileGDPhadsoared13-foldto$133trillion.1,*

Bysomemeasures,thisrapidexpansioninhumanactivityandprosperityisaremarkablesuccessstory.Butithascome

ataremarkableprice.Thecostisbornebyforests,rivers,theatmosphere,animals,plantsandtheglobalocean.Thecostisalsobornebyhumanity,becauseforests,rivers,theatmosphere,animals,plantsandtheglobaloceanprovideservicesessentialtolifeandwell-being.Astheybecomeimpoverished,sotoodoeshumansociety,sparkingacycleofinsecurity—ordeepeningonethatalreadyexists—anderodingdevelopmentgainsmadeoverdecades.

Modernhumanity’sdemandforresourcesissobigthatithassignificantlyalteredthreequartersoftheworld’slandsurfaceandtwothirdsofthemarineenvironment,squeezinglivingspaceforeverythingelse.2Thedemandforwaterhasswollenalmost8-foldsince1900,3and94%offishstocksarebeingexploitedtoorbeyondtheirmaximumsustainablelimit,reducingfoodsecurity.4Thelitanyofenvironmentalillsincludesozonedepletion,plasticpollution,

*Onapurchasingpowerparitybasis,currentUSdollars.

destructionofnaturalhabitatsfromtropicalrainforeststocoralreefs,decimationofwildanimalsandplants,desertificationofonce

10ENVIRONMENTOFPEACE

1750

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1825

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2015

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Figure1A

Figure1B

Figure1C

Exajoules

CHAPTER1

TWOCRISESANDADEFICIT

fertileland,acidificationandde-oxygenationoftheglobalocean,andclimatechange.

ThehumaninfluenceissostarkthatmanyscientistsarguehumanityhasstartedanewepochintheEarth’shistory:theAnthropocene.5For4.5billionyearstheworldwasshapedbynaturalprocesses,suchascontinentaldrift,volcaniceruptions,photosynthesisandevolution;inthelast70years,humaninfluencehasovertakenthemall.

Muchoftheglobalpopulationbecamemoresecureduringthat70-yearperiod,aseconomicandsocialdevelopmentreducedpoverty,hungerandillhealth.Themeetingofbasicneedslessenedthelikelihoodofconflictoveressentialresources.However,therapiddegradationofthenaturalworldisnowthreateningtoturnbackelementsofprogress,creatingnewandsubstantialsecurityrisks.

Thisisespeciallyconcerningbecausetheworldisalreadyfacingasecuritycrisis.Theindicatorsofinsecurityarerising,andtheimpactsofnaturelossandclimatechangeareaddingfueltothefire.Whilefailingtodealwiththesecurityandenvironmentalcrisesseparately,governmentsarealsogenerallyfailingtoappreciatetheirinteractionsandtheadditionalriskstheywillgenerate.

Identifyinganeffectiveapproachtosecurityinthisnewera

ofriskisthecentralquestofEnvironmentofPeace.Webeginby

mappingtherealitiesofthesecuritycrisis,thepresentandfuture

Increasinghumanfootprint

Globalpopulation

GlobalGDP

Globalprimaryenergyuse

Population(billions)

7.4

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

GDP(trillions2011$)

112

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

600

583

500

400

300

200

100

0

Sources:1A1750–1940:InternationalGeosphere-BiosphereProgramme(2015);1940–2015UNPopulationDivision(2021).1B1750–2015:BoltandvanZanden(2020).1C1750–2015:RitchieandRoser(2020).

SECURITYINANEWERAOFRISK11

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Figure1D

Figure1E

Figure1F

TWOCRISESANDADEFICIT

CHAPTER1

oftheenvironmentalcrisis,andthecurrentlyinadequateapproachtogovernance.Thesethreestrandsthenrunthroughoutthereport,providingalensthroughwhichtoseetheworldandaframeworkformovingfromanalysistorecommendations.

*Thesedeathsarelargelyduetothe

conflictinSyria.

**Percentagedecreaseofaverage

terrestrialspeciesabundance

relativetoabundancein

undisturbedecosystems.

Thesecuritycrisis

In2010,thenumberofstate-basedarmedconflictsdocumentedaroundtheworldstoodataround30,havingprogressivelyfallensincethebreak-upoftheSovietUnion.Thetrendhasnowreversed.Between2010and2020,thenumbernearlydoubled(to56),asdidthenumberofconflictdeaths.6,*Thisdoublingcanalsobeseeninthenumbersofrefugeesandotherforciblydisplacedpeople,whichrosefrom41millionin2010to82.4millionin2020.7

Theoveralltrendisunmistakeable:theworldisbecoming

lesssafeandsecureforalargeproportionofitsinhabitants.

Inrecentyears,mostarmedconflictshavetakenplace

withinratherthanbetweencountries.8However,outsideforces

areintimatelyinvolvedinmanyofthemostlethalsituations,

withfourconflicts—Iraq,Libya,SyriaandYemen—partially

shapedbyexternalpowers.

GlobalatmosphericconcentrationofCO?

Globalfreshwateruse

Decreaseinaverage

speciesabundance**

CO?(partspermillion)

401

450

425

400

375

350

325

300

275

Freshwateruse(km3)

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

3986

Decreaseinaveragespeciesabundance(%)

3029

25

20

10

15

5

Sources:1D1750–1958:InternationalGeosphere-BiosphereProgramme(2015);1959–Present:USNOAA(2022).1E1901–2014:RitchieandRoser(2017).1F1750–2000:InternationalGeosphere-BiosphereProgramme(2015).

12ENVIRONMENTOFPEACE

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2012

2013

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2017

2018

2019

2020

CHAPTER1

TWOCRISESANDADEFICIT

Withinthelastthreeyears,thePersianGulfhasseenmissilestrikes,proxyattacksandchallengestofreedomofnavigation.TensionsbetweenIndiaandPakistanhaveescalatedtothelevelofarmedclashes,9ashavethosebetweenIndiaandChina.10WarfarehasarisenanewinEthiopiaandtheSouthCaucasus.11Althoughconflictoverwaterbetweencountriesisextremelyrare,conflictoverwaterwithincountriesdoubledbetweenthe2000sandthe2010s.12Theglobaloceanhasnotescapedthetrend,withconflictsoverfishingquadruplingsince2000.13

EvenbeforetheRussianinvasionofUkraine,geopoliticswasbecomingdiscerniblymorefraught.AparticularfeaturehasbeentheincreasinglyfrostyrelationshipbetweenChinaandseveralWesternpowers,notablytheUnitedStates.TheUSAhasimposedtradesanctionsonChina,14ChinahasdeclaredjurisdictionoveralargetractoftheSouthChinaSea,anddisputeshavecontinuedovercyberespionageandhumanrights.Withinthelast10yearsRussiahasattemptedtodestabilizeothercountriesviacyberattacksandelectoralinterference,15andNorthKorea,Russia,SaudiArabiaandtheUSAhaveallcarriedoutillegalkillingsonforeignsoil.16

ThemonthsleadinguptotheinvasionofUkrainesawRussiarestrictinggasexportstosendenergypricessoaringinEuropeandotherregions,17whileBelarusattemptedtoweaponizemigrationalongitsborderwithPoland.18Theinvasionhasnow

Figure2Numberofstate-basedarmedconflictsbetween1989and2020

Numberofstate-basedarmedconflicts

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

56

31

Sources:Petterssonetal.(2021);Gleditschetal.(2002).

SECURITYINANEWERAOFRISK