戴德梁行+在大流行后的世界中保持精益供應(yīng)鏈的相關(guān)性

SUPPLYCHAIN

Keepingleansupplychainsrelevant

inapost-pandemicworld

AUGUST2022

Aleansupplychain,atitsheart,focussesoninventoryoptimisationandoperationalexcellence.Effectively,leansupplychainsaimtoeliminatewasteateverystageoftheproductionanddistributionprocessandsohavecourtedadditionaltermssuchas“continuousflow”and“just-in-time”.Itisimportanttonotethattheaimisoptimisationofinventorymanagementandnotminimisation,withthelatteroftenbeingusedtoerroneouslyhighlighttheweaknessofleansupplychainsespeciallyintimesofcrises.

1

LEANSUPPLYCHAINNETWORK

ELEMENTS

Network

Supply/Suppliers

Manufacturing

Warehouses,

DataCentres,

etc.

Transport

CHARACTERISTICS

Lowcost,

repeatable

processes,

minimalstock

holdings,firm

baseload

contractswith

3PLs

?LowPrice

?StableVolumes

?Stable

supplypathways

?Baseloads

usinghistoricaldata

?Stable

productionplans

?Stableregionalorlocalmix

?Minimisestocklevelsbyremoving

variability

?Handling

palletsandcases

?Predictabletrafficflows

?TruckUtilization

?Routine

schedules

tominimize

price

WHATISALEAN

1

WHATISALEAN

2

WHATISALEAN

Leansupplychainscanbesummarizedas

beingconsistent,reliable,lowcostandrepeatable.

Achievingconsistentorderlead-timesrequiredbycustomers,notnecessarilytheshortestorfastestleadtime,presentsopportunitiestoplanandoptimiseperformanceandfinancialoutcomes.Assuchinaleansupplychainitispossibletoestablishlong-termstablesupplyandlogisticsservicescontracts,consistentwiththeinherentcharacteristicsofthistypeofnetwork.

Aleansupplychainneedstoharmoniouslysynchronisesupplyanddemand.

Typically,leansupplychainsthereforedealinlargerorderswithclearlydefinedtimeframessetwellinadvance,ratherthanrespondingto,forexample,next-daydeliveryrequests.Thisassistsintheplanningandexecutionofthecustomerorderratherthanbeingreactivetovolatiledemandpatterns,somethingwhichismorereflectedinanagilesupplychain,asinbusiness-to-consumer(B2C)e-commerce.Itisalsocommontocombineleanprinciplesforpartofthesupplychainleadingintoagilelastmiledeliveryinordertobenefitfromscaleandloadconsolidationopportunitiesonprimarylegs.

Ultimately,anoptimisedleansupplychainnetworkwilllead

tothegoalofbeingabletodeliverthehighestvaluetothe

customeratthelowestpossibletotalcosttothebusiness.

WHATISALEAN

LEANSUPPLYCHAINS

Asleansupplychainsarefocussedonoptimisationthroughconsistencyandrepeatability,arguablytheyaredesignedtobelessflexible.Forthisreason,somehavecometoviewthistypeofnetworkasirrelevantinadisruptedworld–agilityrules.However,thisisnotthecase,ratherthatitisimperativeforsupplychainmanagerstocontinuallyreviewtheirnetworkandproactivelyidentifyfuturedisruptionssothatfurtheroptimisationcanbeputinplacewellaheadoftime.

Ofcourse,thisrequiresaccurateidentificationandunderstandingofthosedisruptors.Fundamentallythiscomesdowntoforeseeingfuturestructuralchangesinsupplyanddemand(inboundandoutboundflows)inaprocessofongoingcontinuousimprovementandthereforetargetsmegatrendsratherthancyclicalvolatilityorblackswanevents,suchasCOVID-19.Herewelookatthreekeytrendsaffectingleansupplychains.

KEYTRENDSAFFECTING

LEANSUPPLYCHAINS:

TRADEFLOWS

CUSTOMISATION

AUTOMATION

3

WHATISALEAN

Q12000

Q42000

Q32001

Q22002

Q12003

Q42003

Q32004

Q22005

Q12006

Q42006

Q32007

Q22008

Q12009

Q42009

Q32010

Q22011

Q12012

Q42012

Q32013

Q22014

Q12015

Q42015

Q32016

Q22017

Q12018

Q42018

Q32019

Q22020

Q12021

Q42021

GLOBALTRADEGROWTH

PriortotheCOVID-19pandemic,severaleconomicforecastersandcommentatorswereidentifyingindicatorsthattheworldhadreachedpeakglobalisationandthatitwasstartingtoretreatfromthatpeak.Indeed,inthefirstreportwemadetwosignificantobservationsinthisregard:(i)worldtradecontinuestogrowinabsoluteterms(Figure1);(ii)butthattheshareoftrademovingacrossborderswasfalling.

Akeycomponentofthissecondobservationistheriseofdomesticconsumption–agreaterproportionofproductsareconsumeddomesticallyandwhilethisismostevidentinMainlandChina,weexpectthenextwaveofdomesticconsumptiongrowthtooccurinIndiaandpartsofSouthEastAsia.However,thisisnottosayinterregionaltradeisnotgrowingratherthatisevolving.

Figure1:Indexedworldimport/exporttradevolumegrowthcomparedtoworldGDPgrowth(2010=100)

150

2000-2008

Tradegrowth=5.0%p.a

GDPgrowth=3.2%p.a.

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

ExportsGDP

Source:Cushman&Wakefield

2009-2019

Tradegrowth=2.7%p.a.GDPgrowth=2.9%p.a.

Imports

140

4

Whilethevalueof

interregionaltradebetween

regionshasincreased

practicallyuniversally,the

intensityofincreasehasbeen

largestfortradeintoAsia

PacificandtheMiddleEast.

5

5

HELLOREGIONALISATION

In2005thevalueofinternationaltradecrossingborders,i.e.excludingdomesticconsumption,wasestimatedatUSD12trillion.By2019internationaltradewasestimatedatUSD22trillion,an84%increase.Ifthisisdisaggregatedbyregionitiscleartoseenotonlythelargestflowsbyvalue(Figure2a)butthatwhilethevalueofinterregionaltradebetweenregionshasincreasedpracticallyuniversally,theintensityofincreasehasbeenlargestfortradeintoAsiaPacificandtheMiddleEast,althoughthelatterisoffalowerbase(Figure2b).Withregardtooptimisingleansupplychains,itisimperativetoappreciatethisshiftintrade.NotonlyisAsiaincreasinglyfocussedwithinitselfbutalsothatintra-Europeantradestillaccountsfor20%ofglobalcross-borderflowsbyvolume.

WHATISALEAN

6

HELLOREGIONALISATION

Figure2a:Intra-andinter-regionalbyvalue(USDbn),2019

2019

IMPORTERS

AFRICA

ASIA

EUROPE

LATINAMERICANCOUNTRIES

MIDDLEEAST

OCEANIA

N.AMERICA

EXPORTERS

AFRICA

$70

$224

$193

$11

$47

$3

$36

ASIA

$254

$4,510

$1,472

$352

$505

$163

$1,388

EUROPE

$192

$1,239

$4,499

$160

$311

$55

$725

LATINAMERICA&

CARIBBEAN

$18

$308

$150

$161

$36

$5

$528

MIDDLEEAST

$71

$732

$232

$13

$173

$7

$77

OCEANIA

$4

$284

$30

$3

$10

$18

$19

NORTHAMERICA

$37

$677

$489

$380

$95

$35

$1,159

Source:InternationalTradeCentre,Cushman&Wakefield

SmallerTradeFlowsLargerTradeFlows

WHATISALEAN

7

HELLOREGIONALISATION

Figure2b:Growthinintra-andinter-regional2005-2019

2005-2019growth

IMPORTERS

AFRICA

ASIA

EUROPE

LATINAMERICANCOUNTRIES

MIDDLEEAST

OCEANIA

NORTH

AMERICA

EXPORTERS

AFRICA

111%

255%

43%

-6%

262%

68%

-52%

ASIA

213%

128%

82%

216%

215%

97%

71%

EUROPE

84%

116%

44%

84%

63%

43%

67%

LATINAMERICA&

CARIBBEAN

88%

308%

44%

38%

232%

156%

57%

MIDDLEEAST

142%

131%

33%

93%

206%

50%

-2%

OCEANIA

28%

214%

53%

10%

73%

20%

31%

NORTHAMERICA

123%

109%

75%

83%

156%

49%

48%

Source:InternationalTradeCentre,Cushman&Wakefield

BelowAverageGrowthAboveAverageGrowth

Thefundamental

tenetofleansupply

chainsisthatthey

areoptimisedfor

therepeatableand

reliableflowof

goods.

INLEANSUPPLYCHAINS

Thefundamentaltenetofleansupplychainsisthattheyareoptimisedfortherepeatableandreliableflowofgoods.Thisisbeingchallengedasconsumersdemandmoreproductcustomisation;evolvingconsumerrequirementscannotbeignored.Thequestionthereforeevolvesintohowcustomisationcanbeincorporatedintoaleansupplychainratherthanabandoningaleanapproach.

Thereareinfactarangeofsolutionsthatcanbeinvestigated.Leansupplychainsarecharacterisedbylargerunsofthesameproduct,butthisdoesnotmeanthatproductscannotbealtered-suchasproducingbrandnameaswellas“whitelabel”products.Thisrequiresaccurate

identificationofwhereproductrunsneed

tobesplit,suchasinputsfromdifferent

supplierssothattheproductitselfdoesn’t

changebutthequality,quantityor

packagingmaydiffer.Thisiscommonly

seeninfoodproductionwhereaproducer

couldbesupplyingmultiplesupermarket

chainsforexample.Alternatively,

productioncouldbeshortenedtoallow

customerstothencustomisetheproduct

themselves.Whilethisismorelikelyina

business-to-business(B2B)environment,it

alsooccursinbusiness-to-consumer(B2C)

supplychains.Together,thesemeasures

couldalsohelpreducerawmaterialwaste

andleadtofurthernetworkoptimisation.

8

8

Food&

Groceries

Hotels

Flights

Restaurants

ElectricalProducts

Activeconsumerinvolvement/Bespoke

Activeconsumerinvolvement/Masspersonalisation

Passiveconsumerinvolvement/Masspersonalisation

Beautyproducts

Books,music&entertainment

INLEANSUPPLYCHAINS

Active

consumer

Holidays

Furniture,

homeware&DIY

Clothing

Footwear

Fashion

accessories&

jewellery

Softdrinks

Health&Wellness

Beers,wines&spirits

Passive

consumer

Source:

De/oitte

Bespoke

Masspersonalisation

9

9

46.1%

45.1%

43.1%

40.1%

36.0%

21.0%

17.1%

13.1%

12.1%

6.0%

5.1%

4.1%

TOOPTIMISE

Automationwithinsupplychainsisboth

adisrupterandasolutiontonetwork

optimisation.

AutomationtechnologiesSupplyChainprofessionalsareinvestingin(%),2020

CloudlogisticsWarehouseautomation Predictiveanalytics ArtificialintelligenceInternetofThings

Blockchain

Machinelearning FufillmentrobotsAutonomousvehicles

Drones

AugmentedrealityCrowdsourceddelivery

Source:ZohoCorporation

Automationpresentsopportunitiestoovercome

challengesandintroducegreaterefficiency.Perhaps

oneofthemostvisibleadoptionsofautomationhas

beentoovercomelabourshortages.Ascountries

simultaneouslyencounterpopulationageinganda

shiftupthevaluechain,labourshortagesattimes

havebecomeacuteandcostshavebecome

considerablyhigher.Furthermore,thissituationisnot

expectedtoalleviatewithEurope’sworkingage

populationforecasttodeclineby24millionby2030.

Inmoreimmediateterms,asof2021therewasalready

anestimatedshortageof400,000truckdrivers1,

whichislikelytoincreaseovertimeasthepoolof

driverscontinuestoshrinkbutthedemandfordrivers

continuestoincrease.

1

Ti

10

10

WHATISALEAN

TOOPTIMISE

Similarly,MainlandChina’sworkingagepopulationhasnotonlypeakedbutbecomeincreasinglymoreexpensivetoemploy.Inevitably,attentionthenturnstowhatrolescanbeautomatedwithrepetitivemanualtaskshighonthelist.Digitisedinventoryrecordshavereplacedmanualstocktaking,whilemorerecentlyuseofautomatedstorageandretrievalsystemsandrobotpickersinfulfilmentcentreshavebecomeincreasinglycommon.

Whilethereisaninitialcapitalinvestmentintoanyformofautomation,therearemultiplereturnsonthatinvestment.Consistency,reliabilityandrepeatabilityarekey

withinaleanenvironment,whichcanthenalsobeusedtoensurecomplianceaswellastransparency.

ThelatterofwhichisbecomingincreasinglyscrutinisedasCorporateSocialResponsibility(CSR)commitmentshaverisentothefore.Benefitsextendbeyondthis,though,

asthemoreautomatedasupplychainbecomes,thegreatertheamountofdataproducedandstored.Thisdatacanthenbeanalysedtointroducefurtheroptimisationintothenetworkinaprocessofconstantfeedbackandinturnsupportssupplychainresilience.

Whilethereisaninitial

capitalinvestmentinto

anyformofautomation,

therearemultiplereturns

onthatinvestment.

11

WHATISALEAN

TOOPTIMISE

Asmuchas30%ofthe

workforcecanbereplaced

bytechnology,butthat

nearly63%ofcompaniesdo

notusetechnologyto

monitortheirsupplychain

performance,andthat

69%ofcompaniesdo

nothavefullsupply

chainvisibility.

2

SelectHub

Thereisconsiderablescopeforimprovementhere.Twoseparatestudiesfoundthatpotentiallyasmuchas30%oftheworkforcecanbereplacedbytechnology,butthatnearly63%ofcompaniesdonotusetechnologytomonitortheirsupplychainperformance,andthat69%ofcompaniesdonothavefullsupplychainvisibility2.

However,itisnotacaseofadoptingallandeverytechnologyavailable.Themostsuccessfuloperatorsinachievingvaluehaveverycleargoalsonwhattheywanttoachieveandwhy.

Automationandtheassociateddataanalyticscanbeusedtogivegreatvisibilityandrigouratpracticallyeverystageofthesupplychain,includingrawmaterialsupply,inventoryoptimisation,manufacturingandproductmanagement,transportlogisticsandultimatelyconsumerdemand.Astechnologycontinuestoevolveandbecomemorecost-accessible,thisnotonlywidenstherangeofpotentialapplicationsbutit

becomesmoreavailabletomore

users.Together,thesefactorswill

drivetrulyleannetworks.

12

WHATISALEAN

COMBININGATOP-DOWN

ANDBOTTOM-UP

APPROACH

SUPPLYCHAINNETWORKS

Inoptimisingsupplychainsnetworks,therearetwofundamentalconsiderations.Firstly,thatthenetworkwillhaveaminimumlifespanoffiveyears,butmorelikely10yearsandsecondly,that80%ofthevalueislockedinatthedesignstage.Thismeansthatcriticaldecisionsbeingtakenforthelongertermrequirecarefulandrobustanalysis.Furthermore,theyalsoneedtoaccountforfuturedemandandrequirements.Inthepast,thesedecisionshavecentredaroundcustomer-serviceleadtimes,logisticscostsandreturnoncapital,buttodaythereisanever-sharperfocusonESGtargetsandespeciallycarbonreduction.

Tobeclear,thedecisionsbeingtakentodaywillneedtodeliveronachievingaggressivebutnecessaryESGtargetsoverthecomingdecade.

ORGANISATIONALLEVELTARGETS

?Carbonfootprintaccountingandmodelling

?Developingandmodellinggoalsandtargets(incl.SBT)

?Renewableandgreenenergypurchasing

?Carbonoffsetting

?SupplyChainNetworkOptimisation

IMPLEMENTATIONONTHEGROUND

?SupplyChainaudits

?ImplementingCAPEXupgradestorealiseefficiency

?Logisticsandtransportalternatives

?Supplychainfocuseddecarbonisationpathways

?Cumulativereportingofhowinitiativesrolluptopositivelycontributetoorganisationalgoals

13

WHATISALEAN

SUPPLYCHAINNETWORKS

Whileinventoryflowisanimportantconsiderationingreeningsupplychainnetworks,clearlythelargerimpactandthereforebenefits,comefromappropriatedesignandchoiceoftransportationmodesandnetworks.

Toacertainextent,leansupplychainsarealreadyfocusedonefficiencyintransportationwhich,bydefaulthaspositiveimplicationsfortheenvironment.Thisismainlythroughbulkdistribution,i.e.,workinginpallet-loadsratherthansingleitems,whichthenfavoursseatransportationratherthanroad–roadvehiclesaccountfor62%offreight’semissions1,2.However,thisisnotwithoutitsissuesasalthoughthereisanefficiencydividendofbeingabletotransporthugevolumes,seafreightwas

1

InternationalTransportForum

2

Cushman&Wakefield

3

MIT

stillresponsibleforover800milliontonnesofCO2in20193.Thisspeakstotheneedformodernisingthefreighterfleetaswellasmovingtowardcleanerfuels.Thereisalsothenotinconsequentialissuethatover3000containerswerelostatseain2020.Whilethereisaneconomiccosttotheselosses,thereisalsoanenvironmentalcostwithlostcontainerscarryinghazardouscargoincludingsulphuricacid,nitricacidandallmanorofplasticpollution.

Seafreightwasstill

responsibleforover

800milliontonnes

ofCO2in2019.

14

15

15

REALESTATEIMPACTS

LARGEVOLUMEFREIGHTROUTELOCATIONS

Ashighlightedearlier,akeycomponentofleansupplychainsisthedeliveryoflargeorders

whicharetransportedbysea.Bynature,thismeansthatcloseproximitytokey,largevolume

shippingportsisaprerequisiteforsitelocation.

Accordingly,thesearezonedforheavyindustrywithlimitedencroachmentfromcompetinglandusesasseeninfringeindustrialsub-markets.Suchlocationstendtobeinhighdemand,havelimitedvacancyandthelandistightlyheld.

Consequently,intermodalconnectionsarebecomingincreasinglyimportant,perhapsmostvisiblyinEuropegiventhenumberof

land-lockedcountries.Efficientmovementof

large-volumegoodsbyinlandrailor

waterwaytointerimlocationsandmarketsis

thereforeanadditionalrequirementinsome

leansupplychains.Thisnotonlyaids

efficiencybutalsosustainability,through

reducingrelianceonroadtransport.Such

intermodalterminalsarelikelytobecome

increasingrelevant,especiallyin

geographicallylargemarkets.

16

16

REALESTATEIMPACTS

LANDAVAILABILITYANDCOST(LEASE/BUY)

Therearedirectimpactsofrequiringindustrialspaceincloseproximitytomajorports.Themost

visibleoftheseisinrealestatecosts.

Land-constrainedportlocations,forthemostpart,havelowerlevelsofvacancyandthereforecommandhigherrents.Themetricsvaryfrommarkettomarket,butforexamplethedifferentialinSydneyisupto80%inrentscomparedtosubmarketsfurtherinlandwhilecapitalvaluesinportareasareapproximately60%higher.

IntheU.S.thisisseenthroughmarketssuchasLosAngelesandInlandEmpireespecially.NotonlyarethesetwomarketsamongthemostexpensiveintheU.S.theyarealsoshowingsomeofthestrongestrentgrowthat33%and71%respectivey-o-ytoQ22022–wellabovethenationalaverageof19%-withfurtherdouble-digitrentgrowthexpectedinto

2023.Givensuchgrowth,maritimeport-proximatemarketsareexpectedtoexperiencesomeofthehighestrent

increasesasdemandflowsoutwardsfromthesein-demand

portlocations.

InEurope,wherelandconstraintsatmanyportsmeansthat

locatingappropriatelogisticsfacilitiesforwideronward

distributionofgoodsishighlychallenging,port-proximate

locationsorthosewellconnectedtoports–byroad,railor

inlandwaterways–alreadybenefitfromoccupierdemand

whichisalsodrivingrentalgrowth.LocationssuchBreda,

VenloandTilburgintheNetherlandsarekeyinlandstaging

areasforgoodsmovingthroughRotterdam,Europe’slargest

port,andontoEuropeandestinations.Growingdemandfor

spaceintheselocationhasmeantthaty-o-yrentalgrowthto

Q22022hasbroadlymatchedthegrowthinRotterdam

itself.

17

17

REALESTATEIMPACTS

WAREHOUSESIZEANDFITOUT

Lastly,theareconsiderationsforthefacilityitself.Withthefocusbeingontheefficienthandling

ofbulkvolumes,therearecertainbuildingrequirements.

Withregardstodimensions,thisoftenmeansgreaterbuildingheighttoaccommodateAutomatedSt