牛津經(jīng)濟研究院-土耳其的非法煙草消費

IllicitTobacco

Consumptionin

TURKIYE

Reportby

OxfordEconomics

December2022

Disclaimer

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyOxfordEconomics.OxfordEconomics

enjoyedacademicfreedomandfulleditorialcontrolofthereport.Weare

gratefulfortheinputsanddatareceivedfromindustrystakeholders.

OxfordEconomicspreparedthereportinaccordancewithspecifictermsofreferenceagreedwith

PhilipMorrisProductsSA.FinancialsupportforthereportwasprovidedbyPhilipMorrisProductsSA.

OxfordEconomicsassumesallresponsibilityforthereportanalysis,findingsandconclusion.

Scopeofthereport

IllicitTobaccoConsumptioninTürkiye

Theprimaryobjectiveofthisreportistoprovideanindependentand

robustassessmentofthescaleofIllicitConsumptionofcigarettesandCut

TobaccoinTürkiye,andhowthishaschangedinrecentyears.Thepurpose

ofthisreportisto:

?EstablishillicitincidencelevelsfortobaccoproductsinTürkiye,coveringbothcigarettesandCutTobacco;

?EstimatethevolumeofIllicitConsumption,informedbyinsightsfrommarketresearchconductedbyindependentresearchagenciesonCutTobaccoconsumptionanddetailsfromEmptyPackSurveys(EPS)toestimateabreakdownofcigaretteconsumptionbyorigin;

?EstimatetheannualgovernmentTaxLossfromforegoneExciseTaxandVATreceiptsduetoIllicitConsumption.

Estimatescovertheperiodfrom2017tothefirstsixmonthsof2022(H1)forcigarettesanddueto

dataavailabilityconstraints,from2019tothefirstsixmonthsof2022(H1)forCutTobaccoandthe

totaltobaccomarket.

Disclaimer

Tocontentspage>

2

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1981

intheUK

Weemployover

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full-timestaffglobally

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3

Contents

IllicitTobaccoConsumptioninTürkiye

Aboutus3

Contents5

GlossaryofTerms6

ExecutiveSummary7

MacroeconomicContext8

OverviewofTobaccoMarket10

CigaretteConsumption12

Cross-borderCigaretteTrade14

CutTobaccoConsumption16

IllicitConsumptionofTobaccoProducts18

TobaccoTaxationStructureinTürkiye19

TaxLossduetoIllicitConsumption20

TaxLossduetoIllicitConsumptionbyProducts21

AppendixA:CigaretteMethodology22

AppendixB:CutTobaccoMethodology23

GlossaryofTerms

AverageDailyConsumption:Averagenumberofcigarettesconsumedperdaypersmoker.

Bn:Billion.Cigarette-equivalent:Unitofmeasurementthatreferstoeitherafactory-madecigaretteorastickofCutTobaccoproduct.

CounterfeitCigarettes:Cigarettesthatareillegallymanufacturedandsoldwithoutpermissionofthetrademarkrightsholder.

CutTobacco:Tobaccocutintothinshredsasusedincigarettes,oftenforpipesandforrolling.Withinthescopeofthisreport,wefocusonfine-CutTobaccoinjectedintotubes(macarons)orsoldinpackagestorollbythecustomers.

DomesticIllicit:Tobaccoproducts(factor-madecigarettesorCutTobacco)thatareproducedforthedomesticmarketbutarenotduty-paying.Duty-Free:ConsumersmaybuyDuty-Freeproductswhentravellingintooroutofthecountrybyland,air,orseaatlegalDuty-Freeshopsuptothelegallimit.

EmptyPackSurvey(EPS):Studiesconductedbyindependentresearchagencies,duringwhichagenciescollectemptypacksdiscardedbysmokersinpublicplaces,recordingbrandsandorigins.Samplesareanalysedforauthenticitybyforensicexpertsofparticipatingcompanies.EPSresultsareusedtoestimatethesharesofdomesticandnon‐domesticconsumption(genuinefromothercountriesandcounterfeit)inthemarket.

ExciseTax:Anindirecttaxontheconsumptionof

certaingoods.ExciseTaxescanbeeitherspecific,

i.e.,expressedasamonetaryamountperquantity/

weightoftheproduct;ad-valorem,i.e.,expressedasa

proportionofthevalueofaproduct;oracombination

ofboth.

H1:Halfone(ofthecalendaryear).

TL:TurkishLira.

IllicitConsumption:SumofDomesticIllicitandNon-

DomesticIllicit.

Inflows/Outflows:Inflows/Outflowsofproductinto/

fromamarket.

LegalDomesticConsumption:DefinedasLegal

DomesticSalesnetofOutflows.

LegalDomesticSales:Salesofgenuinedomestictax-

paidproductthroughlegitimate,domesticchannels.

MarketShare:Theproportionoftotalsales,

expressedasapercentage,accountedforbya

particularcompany,productorbrand.

Mn:Million.

Non-Domestic:Productnotoriginallyintendedforthe

marketinwhichitisconsumed.

Non-DomesticIllicit:Contraband,counterfeitand

importsofotherillicittobaccoproducts.

Non-DomesticLegal:Productthatisbroughtinto

themarketlegallybyconsumers,suchasduringa

cross-bordertrip,subjecttoDuty-Freeallowancesas

applicable.

GlossaryofTerms

Backtocontents>

6

ExecutiveSummary

IncreasingconsumptionofillicitCutTobaccohasdrivenhigherTotal

Consumptionoftobaccoproducts

?TotalConsumptionofCutTobaccoinTürkiyealmostdoubledto29,427mnCigarettes-equivalentin2021,from16,423mnCigarettes-equivalentin2019.CutTobaccoasashareofTotalConsumptionalsoincreasedfrom11.9%in2019toreach18.9%in2021.Inthefirstsixmonthsof2022,thisshareroseto26.1%.

?TotalConsumptionofcigaretteshasremainedstable.Duringthe2019-21periodwhenestimatesforbothcigaretteandCutTobaccoconsumptionareavailable,annualconsumptionofcigarettesaveragedat120,646mncigarettes.

?TotalConsumptionoftobaccoproducts(includingmanufacturedcigarettesandCutTobacco)hassteadilyincreasedinrecentyears,largelydrivenbyillicitCutTobaccoconsumption.TotalConsumptionincreasedby18,037mnCigarettes-equivalentbetween2019and2021,risingfrom137,461mnCigarettes-equivalentin2019to155,498mnCigarettes-equivalentin2021.

IllicitConsumptionhasalsopickedupduetoIllicitConsumptionofCutTobacco

?IllicitConsumptionaccountedforapproximately94%ofTotalConsumptionofCutTobaccobetween2019-21.Amongalltobaccoproducts,CutTobaccoaccountsforapproximately91.3%ofIllicitConsumptionbetween2019and2021.

?IllicitConsumptionasashareofTotalConsumptionofcigarettesfellfrom2.1%in2019to0.9%in2020beforerisingagainto4.6%in2022H1.IranandIraqareidentifiedasthemajororiginsofillicitcigarettesinTürkiye,accountingfor98%ofIllicitConsumptionofcigarettesin2022H1.

?IllicitConsumptionasashareofTotalConsumptionoftobaccoproductssteadilyincreasedto18.6%in2021,from13.5%in2019.ThisincreasereflectstherisingpopularityofCutTobacco,whichhasamuchhigherillicitincidencerate.Inthefirstsixmonthsof2022,theillicitincidencecontinuetogrowsharplyto27.9%,representing21,624mCigarettes-equivalent.

TaxLossduetoIllicitConsumptionoftobaccoproductshasincreased

inrecentyears

?TotalTaxLossduetoIllicitConsumptionoftobaccoproductsreachedTL18,327mnin2021,almostdoublingfromTL9,744mnin2019.

?IllicitCutTobaccoaccountedfor86.4-95.9%ofannualTaxLossduringthe2019-21period.Inabsoluteterm,TaxLossduetoillicitCutTobaccoconsumptiondoubledfromTL8,419mnin2019toTL16,773mnin2021.

?Inthefirstsixmonthsof2022,estimatedTaxLossfromIllicitConsumptionamountedtoTL21,326mn,surpassingthetotalamountofTaxLossincurredinthewholeof2021.

ExecutiveSummary

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7

MacroeconomicContext

MacroeconomicContext

TheTurkisheconomyhasfacedsignificantchallengesinrecentyears

Realhouseholddisposableincomehasdeclinedbyalmost20%since2017,whichisthestartingyearfortheanalysisincludedinthisstudy.Afterthereboundin2021duetotheimmediaterecoveryfromCOVID-19lockdowns,householddisposableincomeagaindroppedin2022tothelevelobservedin2020attheheightoftheCOVID-19pandemic.OxfordEconomicsforecastsuggeststhatconsumerpricesareexpectedtoriseby72.8%in2022,thefastestratesincemid-1998.Againstthisbackdrop,thecost-of-livingcrisishasbecomeaseriousconcern.AninterviewconductedwithProfessorU?urEmekatBa?kentüniversitesiaspartofthisstudysuggeststhatthechallengingeconomicconditionsandhigherpriceshavecontributedtoanuptickinIllicitTradeacrossarangeofgoodssuchasfuel,drugsandtobacco.

Averagerealhouseholddisposableincome

100=2017level

105%

100%

95%

90%

85%

80%

201720182019202020212022

Source:OxfordEconomics/HaverAnalytics

Consumerpricesare

expectedtoincreaseby

72.8%

in2022overall

Backtocontents>

8

MacroeconomicContext

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Thepriceoftobaccoproductsincreasedsignificantlyin2022,

especiallyforcigarettes

Inthisinflationaryeconomiccontext,theweightedaveragepriceforapackof20factory-madecigarettesquicklyincreasedin2022,reachingTL28.7apackbyJuly2022.Previously,theweightedaveragepriceremainedstablebetween2019Q3and2021Q3,reachingTL15.7inJuly2021.Thischangereflectedan83.3%year-on-yearhike,oranincreaseofTL13.1perpack,inthepriceofcigarettes.

ThepriceforIllicitCutTobaccoproductshasalsoincreased,albeitatmuchslowerpace.Inthesummerof2021,consumerresearchsuggeststhatapackof20pre-mademacaronscostTL8.7.ByJuly2022,thepricefor20pre-mademacaronsincreasedtoTL11.5,aTL3.3increaseperpack.

QuarterlyCigarettePrices

WeightedAveragePricesinTurkishLira

0

2018Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022Q1

Source:PMI

Averagepriceofcigarettesincreasedby

83.3%

year-on-yearbyJuly2022

Backtocontents>

9

CigaretteCuttobacco

29,427

126,071

26,010

114,827

16,423

121,038

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

OverviewofTobaccoMarket

TotalConsumptionhasincreasedinrecentyears

TotalConsumptionoftobaccoproducts(includingmanufacturedcigarettesandCutTobacco)hassteadilyincreasedinrecentyears.TotalConsumptionhasincreasedfrom137,461mnCigarettes-equivalentin2019to155,498mnCigarettes-equivalentin2021.ThisincreaseinTotalConsumptionisdominatedbythegrowthofCutTobaccomarketwhoseconsumptiongrewfrom16,423mnCigarettes-equivalentin2019to29,427mnCigarettes-equivalentin2021,themajorityofwhichisillicit.Inthefirstsixmonthsof2022,CutTobaccoaccountedfor26.1%ofTotalConsumption,upfrom11.9%in2019.

TotalConsumptionofTobaccoProducts

Cigarettesequivalent,mn

20,000

0

2019

2020

2021

Source:OxfordEconomics

CutTobaccoconsumption

accountedfor

26.1%

ofTotalConsumptionin2022H1

OverviewofTobaccoMarket

Backtocontents>

10

IllicitConsumptionhasalsoincreased

Overrecentyears,IllicitConsumptionoftobaccoproductshasincreasedsignificantly.IllicitConsumptionasashareofTotalConsumptionincreasedfrom13.5%in2019to27.9%in2022H1.Atthesametime,marketresearchsuggeststhatsmokerprevalenceinTürkiyehasremainedrelativelystableataround37.1%between2019and2022.1AkeydriveroftheincreaseinTotalConsumptionisduetotherisingprevalenceofCutTobaccousers,whotendtosmokemoreperdaythanusersoffactory-madecigarettes.MarketresearchinMay-August2022suggeststhatAverageDailyConsumption(ADC)perCutTobaccouserreached20.8Cigarettes-equivalent,higherthantheADCofcigarettesmokersat19.3.

SmokerPrevalenceandIllicitConsumption

WeightedAveragePricesinTurkishLira

%ofAdultPopulation

%ofTotalConsumption

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

20182019202020212022H1

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

SmokerPrevalenceRate

IllicitIncidence(RHS)

Source:PMIandOxfordEconomicsanalysis

1Basedonrecentsurveys,thisfigureprovidesmorerecentpictureofsmokerprevalenceinTürkiyecomparedtoestimatesfromWHOusingtheGlobalAdultTobaccoSurvey(whoselatestdatadated2016).Thisfigureincludesusersofallcombustibletobaccocategories,i.e.factory-madecigarettes,fineCutTobacco,cigarillo,pipeandwaterpipe.

IllicitConsumptionoftobaccoproductshasincreasedto

27.9%

in2022

OverviewofTobaccoMarket

Backtocontents>

11

CigaretteConsumption

TotalConsumptionofcigaretteshasremainedstable

TotalConsumptionaveragedat121,444mncigarettesannuallybetween2017-21,rangingfrom114,827mnin2020to127,219mnin2018.CigaretteconsumptioninTürkiyeispredominantlydomestic.Indeed,basedonEPSanalysis,between2017and2022H1,Non-DomesticincidenceinTürkiyedecreasedfrom11.3%in2017to0.9%in2020.Thedropin2020reflectsnotonlyCovid-relatedtravelrestrictionsthatlimitedtheInflowsofcigarettesfromothercountriesbutalsoalong-termdeclinesince2017.TheNon-Domesticincidencehassincerebounded,reaching2.1%in2021and5.0%in2022H1.

Totalcigaretteconsumptionbreakdown

Cigarettes,mn

LegalDomesticSalesNon-DomesticLegalNon-DomesticIllicit

127,219

126,071

140,000

118,066

121,038114,827

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

20172018201920202021

Source:OxfordEconomics,EPSanalysis

IllicitConsumptionofcigarettesinthefirstsixmonthsof2022reached

2.6bn

whichsurpassedIllicitConsumptionforallof2021

CigaretteConsumption

Backtocontents>

12

IllicitConsumptionhasreboundedsince2021

IllicitConsumptionofcigarettesasashareofTotalConsumptionfellsharplyfrom10.6%in2017to0.9%in2020.However,theillicitincidenceratethenroseagainto1.9%in2021and4.6%in2022H1.Involumeterms,IllicitConsumptionofcigarettespeakedat12,521mcigarettesin2017.Theillicitvolumefellsteadilyto1,042mcigarettesin2020beforereboundingto2,451mcigarettein2021.Inthefirstsixmonthsof2022,IllicitConsumptionisestimatedat2,624m,whichisalreadyhigherthantotalIllicitConsumptionforthewholeof2021.

Totalcigaretteconsumptionbreakdown

(Cigarettes,mn,unlessspecified)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022H1

LegalDomesticSales

Outflows

106,223

118,501

119,748

114,776

125,109

55,453

1,527

1,387

1,601

1,029

1,681

1,023

LegalDomesticConsumption

104,697

117,114

118,147

113,747

123,428

54,430

TotalNon-Domestic

Non-DomesticLegal

Non-DomesticIllicit

13,369

10,105

2,891

1,081

2,643

2,841

849

814

368

39

193

216

12,521

9,291

2,523

1,042

2,451

2,624

TotalConsumption

118,066

127,219

121,038

114,827

126,071

57,271

Illicitas%TotalConsumption

10.6%

7.3%

2.1%

0.9%

1.9%

4.6%

Source:OxfordEconomics,EPSanalysis

CigaretteConsumption

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13

Cross-borderCigaretteTrade

AfteranalysingtheoriginstructureofNon-DomesticInflowstoTürkiyeandnettingoffNon-DomesticLegalInflows(seeAppendixAforfullmethodologicaldetails),IranandIraqhavebeenidentifiedasthemajororiginsofillicitcigarettesbeingconsumedwithinTürkiye.Theircombinedshareasoriginsofillicitcigarettes(excludingcounterfeitswithunidentifiedorigins)hasrisensignificantlyoverrecentyears,from85.3%in2017to98.4%in2022H1.Inparticular,Iranisthetopsourceforillicitcigarettes,accountingfor49.4%oftotalIllicitConsumptionin2017,risingto92.9%in2022H1.OthernotableoriginsofillicitInflowstoTürkiyeoverrecentyearsincludeUzbekistan,Georgia,Kyrgyzstan,Ukraine,ArmeniaandSyria,albeittheirprominencehasfadedsignificantlyinrecentyears.

IllicitConsumptionofcigarettesbyorigin

%TotalIllicitConsumption(excludingcounterfeits)

2022H1

2021

Iran

Iraq

Others

2020

2019

2018

2017

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Source:OxfordEconomics,EPSanalysis

Cigarettesoriginatingfrom

IranandIraqaccountedfor

98.4%

oftotalIllicitConsumption

inthefirsthalfof2022

Cross-borderCigaretteTrade

Backtocontents>

14

169.3

0.7

321.3

PricedifferentialsacrosscountriescanhelpexplainthesourcesofcigaretteinflowstoTürkiye.Thecheapestbrand20-cigarettepackretailedat$1.58in2020inTürkiye.ThispricewassignificantlyhigherthaninTürkiye’sEasternneighbours(Iran,Azerbaijan,Georgia,ArmeniaandIraq).Atthesametime,ouranalysisofcross-countryEPSdatasuggeststhatcigarettesofTurkishvariantmostlyarrivetoWesternEuropeancountrieswithhighercigarettepricessuchasFrance,NetherlandsandtheUnitedKingdom.Outflowstypicallyaccountedfor0.9-1.4%ofLegalDomesticSalesinTürkiyebetween2017and2021.

CigaretteretailpriceandinflowsofillicitcigarettestoTürkiye

Bulgaria:$3.03

Georgia:$0.81

Azerbaijan:$0.94

Armenia:$0.78

Türkiye:$1.58

Syria:$0.40

Greece:$4.38

Iran:$1.19

Iraq:$0.42

Mainannualillicitinflows

ofcigarettes,average

2019-21(Cigarettes,mn)

$0.40

$1.58

$4.50

Priceperpack(20)ofthecheapestbrandin2020(US$)

Cross-borderCigaretteTrade

Backtocontents>

15

TotalConsumptionof

CutTobaccoreached

29.4bn

Cigarettes-equivalentin2021

29,427

26,010

Source:Oxford

15,000

10,000

5,000

35,00030,000

25,000

CutTobaccoConsumption

CutTobaccoconsumptionhasincreasedinrecentyears

Türkiyeisamajorproduceroftobacco,withover50,000farmersproducingalmost80,000tonsofleaftobaccoin2020(BETAM,2020)1.Whilemosttobaccoisgrownthroughcontractproduction,theshareoftobaccogrownwithoutacontractorgrownoverthespecifiedcontractedamounthasgrowninrecentyears.SomefarmersthensellthetobaccotointermediarieswhoparticipateinacomplexillicitsupplychainofCutTobacco.IllegalproducersofCutTobaccoproductscanpurchasetobaccoinbulkfromwholesalemarketsandsellitinsmallerillicitpackagesorinjectthemintomacarons(BETAM,2020)2.

WeestimatethatTotalConsumptionofCutTobaccoinTürkiyealmostdoubledto29,427mnCigarettes-equivalentin2021,from16,423mCigarettes-equivalentin2019.AninterviewconductedwithProfessorU?urEmekatBa?kentüniversitesisuggeststhattheincreaseinCutTobaccoconsumptionislargelydrivenbytheincreasingpricegapbetweenCutTobaccoproductsandfactory-madecigarettes,theexpandedCutTobaccosupplychainandthedifficulteconomicconditioninTürkiye.

TotalCutTobaccoConsumptionbreakdown

Cigarettes-equivalent,mn

16,423

20,000

0

2019

IllicitConsumption

Economics

2020

LegalConsumption

2021

1BETAM(2020)Ananalysisoftheillegaltradeofalcoholicbeverages,cigarettesandtobacco,fuelandmobilephonesinTurkey,

.tr/en/2021/05/an-analysis-of-the-illegal-trade-of-alcoholic-

beverages-cigarettes-and-tobacco-fuel-and-mobile-phones-in-turkey/

2ibid.

CutTobaccoConsumption

Backtocontents>

16

ThevastmajorityofCutTobaccoconsumptionisillicit

TheillicitincidenceofCutTobaccoconsumptiondecreasedfrom97.6%in2019to89.9%in2021,drivenbyaslightincreaseintheshareofduty-paidconsumptionbythedomesticpopulationaccordingtoinsightsfrommarketresearch.However,thisratioincreasedagainin2022H1toreach93.8%.Inadditiontobeingmoreaffordablethancigarettes,theavailabilityofillicitCutTobaccoproductsalsocontributedtotheirgrowingprevalence.Forexample,prefilledmacaronsareavailableoninternetplatformsandattobacconistoutlets,whotypicallyonlyhaveoperatingpermitstosellsouvenirs.Thenumberoftheseoutletshasincreasedfromaround6,000in2016toaround20,000in2020(BETAM,2020)1.

TotalCutTobaccoConsumptionbreakdown

(Cigarettes-equivalent,mn,unlessspecified)

2019

2020

2021

2022H1

LegalConsumption

DomesticLegal

Non-DomesticLegal

392

345

1,534

1,519

2,976

2,948

1,252

1,236

47

16

29

16

IllicitConsumption

16,030

24,476

26,450

18,999

TotalConsumption

16,423

26,010

29,427

20,251

Illicitas%TotalConsumption

97.6%

94.1%

89.9%

93.8%

Source:OxfordEconomics,consumerresearchsurveys

1BETAM(2020)Ananalysisoftheillegaltradeofalcoholicbeverages,cigarettesandtobacco,fuelandmobile

phonesinTurkey,

.tr/en/2021/05/an-analysis-of-the-illegal-trade-of-alcoholic-

beverages-cigarettes-and-tobacco-fuel-and-mobile-phones-in-turkey/

CutTobaccoConsumption

Backtocontents>

17

Source:OxfordEconomics

IllicitConsumptionofCutTobaccoaccountedfor

91.3%

oftotalIllicitConsumptionbetween2019and2021

IllicitConsumptionof

TobaccoProducts

ThecompositionoftobaccoconsumptionhasshiftedtowardsCutTobacco

CutTobaccoasashareofTotalConsumptionincreasedfrom11.9%in2019toreach18.9%in2021.Inthefirstsixmonthsof2022,thissharerosefurtherto26.1%.Thewideningpricegapbetweenfactory-madecigarettesandCutTobaccoproductshaslikelycontributedtothistrend.In2021,consumerresearchsuggestedthatapackof20pre-mademacaronshadcostTL7.0lessthanapackof20factory-madecigarettes(weightedaverageprices)in

July2021.ByJuly2022,thispricegaphadwidenedtoTL17.2.

TotalConsumption

(Cigarettes-equivalent,mn,unlessspecified)

2019

2020

2021

2022H1

LegalConsumption

Cigarette

CutTobacco

118,908

115,320

126,597

55,898

118,516

113,786

123,621

54,646

392

1,534

2,976

1,252

IllicitConsumption

Cigarette

CutTobacco

18,553

25,518

28,901

21,624

2,523

1,042

2,451

2,624

16,030

24,476

26,450

18,999

TotalConsumption

Cigarette

CutTobacco

137,461

140,838

155,498

77,522

121,038

114,827

126,071

57,271

16,423

26,010

29,427

20,251

Cuttobaccoas%TotalConsumption

11.9%

18.5%

18.9%

26.1%

IllicitIncidenceas%TotalConsumption

13.5%

18.1%

18.6%

27.9%

CutTobaccoaccountsformostofIllicitConsumption

IllicitConsumptionasashareofTotalConsumptionamongtobaccoproducts(cigarettesandCutTobacco)steadilyincreasedfrom13.5%in2019to18.6%in2021.Thisshareiscomparabletopreviousmediareporting1,whichestimatedtheIllicitIncidenceinTürkiyeataround20%ofTotalConsumptionin2020.Inthefirstsixmonthsof2022,illicitincidencegrewsharplyto28%,representing21,624mnCigarettes-equivalent.

CutTobaccoaccountedforapproximately91.3%ofIllicitConsumptionoftobaccoproductsbetween2019and2021.Duringthisperiod,IllicitConsumptionofalltobaccoproductsincreasedby10,347mnCigarettes-equivalent.Drivingthistrend,IllicitConsumptionofCutTobaccoincrea