國際能源署天然氣分析及展望

2022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔Hml2022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔Hml2/422/42GasMarketReportQ3-2022includingGas2022medium-termforecastto2025file:///F:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html2022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔Hmlfile:///F:/file:///F:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔Hml 3/422022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔Hmlfile:///F:/file:///F:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔Hml 3/42INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits3.membercountries,10associationcountriesandbeyond.Pleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineat/t&c/Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatsofr'sovereigntyoveranyterritory,ttedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,ityrarea.Source:IEA.Allrightsreserved.InternationalEneryAgencyWebsite:IEAmembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzeriandRepublicofTurkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesIEAassociationcountries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandiea2022/8/10 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2AbstractGasMarketReportQ3-2022AbstractAbstractRussia'sinvasionofUkrainehasexacerbatedthetighteningsupplyofnaturalgasunderwaysincemid-2021,furtherpushinguppricesforconsumersandleadingtofuelswitchinganddemanddestruction.Italsocastslonger-termuncertaintyonmarketprospectsfornaturalgas,especiallyindevelopingmarketswhereitwastoplayacentralroleinenergytransitions.Naturalgasdemandisexpectedtodeclinein2022andremainsubduedupto2025.Europe'ssurgingpursuitofLNGtophaseoutRussianpipelinesupplyandlimitedglobalLNGexportcapacityadditionsraisetheriskofprolongedtightmarkets.Fasterdevelopmentandimplementationofcleanenergytransitionpolicies,especiallyinmaturegasmarkets,wouldeasepricecompetitionandhelpemergingmarketsaccesssuppliesthatcancontributetoshorttermimprovementsincarbonintensityandairquality.ThisnewissueoftheGasMarketReportoffersamedium-termforecastandanalysisofglobalgasmarketsto2025,aswellasareviewofrecentdevelopmentsinmajorregionalgasmarketsduringthefirsthalfof2022.Page|2iea2022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.html川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 22022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.html川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 2MarketReportQ3>TableofcontentsTableofcontentsTOC\o"1-5"\h\z\o"CurrentDocument"Gas2022 iExecutivesummary '\o"CurrentDocument"Mainassumptionsbehindtheforecast 9\o"CurrentDocument"Economicactivityandenergypriceassumptions 10\o"CurrentDocument"PhasingoutRussiangas:Anacceleratedcase 11\o"CurrentDocument"RussiangasintheEuropeanUnion:Astateofinterdependency 12TheEuropeanUnion'srelianceonRussiangasincreasedsteadilyoverPhase-outcommitmentsarebuildingupacrosstheEuropeanUnion.14SeveralEUmembercountriesareaimingtoacceleratethephase-outMeasurestoimplementanacceleratedandorderlyphase-outofTOC\o"1-5"\h\zRussiangas 16\o"CurrentDocument"Acombinationofsupply-anddemand-sidemeasureswillbenecessarytophaseoutRussiangasinanorderlymanner 18\o"CurrentDocument"Globalgasdemandgrowthdipsin2022afterastrong2021,withamodestincreaseexpectedinthefollowingyears 20Short-termgasdemandgrowthcomestoahalt,whilelonger-termuncertaintylimitsgrowthpotentialinthefollowingyears 21\o"CurrentDocument"Currentmarkettensionsandmedium-termuncertaintyresultina60%cutinourforecastofaveragegrowthingasdemandto2024,comparedtoourpreviousoutlook 22LowerglobalgasgrowthpotentialfurtherhighlightstheoutsizeroleplayedbyAsiaandtheindustrialsectorinthemedium-term\o"CurrentDocument"Naturalgasgrowthisslowerthanpreviouslyexpected,butthisdoesnotguaranteeanaccelerationincleanenergytransitions 24Gasdemandgrowthto2024shrinksby60%comparedtotheprevious\o"CurrentDocument"Theindustrialsectorplaystheleadroleinmedium-termgrowth 26\o"CurrentDocument"Theindustrialsectoraccountsforoverhalfofglobalgasconsumptiongrowthover2022-2025 27Gasdemandfornon-energyuses-tensioninglobalfertiliser\o"CurrentDocument"TheureapricehasjumpedsinceSeptember2021onacombinationofhighnaturalgascostsandexportlimitations 30\o"CurrentDocument"Naturalgasconsumptiongrowthinthefertiliserindustryisexpectedtoslowtoanaverageof0.8%intheperiod2020to2025 31AsiaandtheMiddleEastaccountforabout80%ofmedium-termgasSpotlightonfast-growingregionsinahighgaspriceandtightsupply\o"CurrentDocument"Gasdemandgrowthprospectsarestowing,butarestillthere 35Chinasgasconsumptiongrowthissettocontinue,butshiftintoalowerChinasdemandgrowthisfuelledbyindustry,whilepowersectorusestagnatesin2022-2025…37ChinasdrivetosignnewLNGcontractsandexpanddomesticstoragecouldreduceexposuretomarketvolatilityinthemediumterm 33TOC\o"1-5"\h\z\o"CurrentDocument"India'sgasdemandgrowthprospects:Downbutnotout 39India'sdemandgrowthissettocomemostlyfromindustryandcitygassegments;domesticproductionprovidesmorethantwo-thirdsofincrementalsupply 40JapanandKoreafaceadeclininggasdemandtrajectoryinthe20212025period 41DemanddeclineinbothJapanandKoreaisdrivenbyasqueezeongasinpowergeneration 42Pg \QQ2022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.htmlPage|& Page|& iea川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 22022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.htmlPage|& Page|& iea川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 22022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.htmlPagePage14file:///F:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 2asMarketReportQ3-2022EmergingAsia'soutlookiscaughtbetweenstrongfundamentalsandlackofLNGaffordability.……43TOC\o"1-5"\h\zEmergingAsia's2021-2025gasdemandgrowthismodestbutbroad-based,drivenmainlybypowergeneration .44Fuelforgrowth:FocusonAfricannaturalgasmarkets 45Sub-SaharanAfricaaccountsformorethanhalfofthecontinentsgrowthto2025;demandpotentialishamperedbyachallengingpriceSupply 51NorthAmericaandtheMiddleEasttakeastrongleadonadditionstogasproductionwhileRussiadipsondecliningexportprospects 52Gasproductiongrowthto2025remainslimitedandgeographicallyAbleakoutlookforRussiangasproductionandupstreamdevelopment 55Russia'sdeterioratingexportprospectsleadtoasteepdownwardrevisiontoitsproductionoutlook .56ProspectsforUSgasproductiongrowtharecaughtbetweenshort-termcautiononspendingandlonger-termoptimismonexportgrowthLNGexportgrowthdrivesmedium-termUSgasproductionSouthAmericangasproductionstrugglestogrowbetweenlimiteddomesticdemanddevelopmentanddepletioninlegacyproducingcountries…60TOC\o"1-5"\h\zSouthAmericangasproductionisexpectedtoincreaseto2025,buttoremainbelowitspre-pandemiclevels. 62Spotlightonlow-carbongases 63Cleangaspoliciespavethewayforthedeploymentoflow-carbonKeycleangaspoliciesandinitiativesadoptedsincemid-2021 66TableofcontentsEuropeandtheUnitedStatescontinuetoleadbiomethaneproductionGlobalbiomethaneproductionisexpectedtoreach10bcmby2026.68Low-emissionhydrogencontinuestogaintraction 69ReachingEurope'shydrogenambitionswillrequirestrongerpolicySyntheticmethane:Thenextfrontierforlow-carbongases? 71JapanforeseesakeyroleforsyntheticmethaneindecarbonisinggasLookingforapurpose:Adaptingexistinggasinfrastructureforalow-Gas-to-hydrogenpipelineconversionscanresultinsubstantialcostGlobalgastradegrowthisexpectedtoslowsignificantlyinthemediumLNGremainsthemaindriverofglobalgastradeduringtheforecastGlobalLNGtradegrowthisledbyEuropeandemandandNorthTOC\o"1-5"\h\zAmericansupplyin2021-2025 78GlobalLNGtradevolumeisoncoursetoapproach600bcmby2025.. 79LNGinvestment:OnthevergeofanewFIDcycte? 80LNGinvestment:Tentativerecoveryunderwaysince2021 81LNGshippingcapacrtyisoncoursetoexpandby30%between2021FSRUoutlook:SurgeofinterestinEuroperunsintofleetcapacityFSRUoutlook:Despiterapidfleetgrowth,Europeandemandcouldquicklyerodesparecapacity 84GasMarketReportQ3-2022Long-distancepipelinetradeisexpectedtodeclineoverthemedium...drivenbyEurope'slowerpipelineimportsfromRussia 86Russia'spivottotheeast:AlongandbumpyroadforRussiangasItwouldtakeRussiaatleastadecadetorampupgassuppliestoAsianmarketstoalevelclosetoits2021exportstotheEuropeanUnion….88Gasmarketupdate 89Aslightcontractioninglobalgasconsumptionisexpectedin2022afteranextraordinary2021.00NorthAmericangasdemandcontinuesitsgrowthdespiteUSgasconsumptionisupbycloseto5%y-o-yinthefirsthalfTOC\o"1-5"\h\zof2022 92CentralandSouthAmericangasdemandisexpectedtodeclinein2022onimprovedhydrogeneration,highimportpricesandlimitedSouthAmericapreparesforthesouthernwinteramidatightglobalEuropeangasdemandissettofallbelowits2020levelsonongoingdemanddestruction 95Europeangasconsumptionfellby10%y-o-yinthefirsthalfof2022 96Asia'sgasdemandgrowthisoncoursetodeceleratemarkedlyAsia'sgasdemandrecoverywasweakanduneveninQ12022andremainssothroughout2022 99USnaturalgasproductionanddrillingactivityincreasedespitecautiousspendingguidance...100TableofcontentsUSnaturalgasproductionreboundssinceMarchonhigherassociatedUSproductionisexpectedtoincreaseby3.4%in2022,drivenbyhighersupplyfromthePermianwhilegrowthfromtheAppalachianTOC\o"1-5"\h\zFastandflexible:RecordLNGinflowtoEuropeoffsetsthesteepdropinRussiangasdeliveries 103Europe'sLNGimportsaresettohitanall-timehighin2022 104GlobalLNGtradegrowthisfuelledbyEuropeandemandandUSsupplyin2022 105Europe'snewfoundappetiteforLNGsetsthepaceforglobalLNGtradein2022 106Tightsupplycond代ionskeptEuropeanandAsianpricesatseasonalrecordsinQ22022 107TTFisexpectedtodisplayastrongpremiumoverAsianspotLNGGasstoragedynamicsvariedacross key regionsinQ22022 109TheEuropeanUnionhadalmostentirelyeradicateditsstoragedeficitSummarytables(1/2) 112Summarytables(2/2) 113Regionalandcountrygroupings 114Abbreviationsandacronyms 115Unitsofmeasure……115Acknowledgements,contributorsand credits 1162022/8/10 新建文本文檔2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.htmlGas2022川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 22022/8/10 新建文本文檔2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.htmlGas2022川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 2GasMarketReportQ3-2022Gas2022ExecutivesummaryTheglobalnaturalgasmarketbegan2022withexpectationsofmodestdemandgrowth,butthatallchangedwithRussia'sinvasionofUkraineon24February.Inadditiontorepresentingamassivehumantragedy,theinvasiontriggeredamajorenergysupplycrisis,withbroadrepercussionsfortheglobaleconomyandenergyoutlook.Russia'sinvasionofUkraineredefinesglobalnaturalgasmarketsThehighpriceandtightsupplyenvironmentthatbuiltupduringthesecondhalfof2021furtherintensifiedfollowingRussia'sinvasionofUkraine,leadingtofuelswitchinganddemanddestruction.Todaysrecordpricesandsupplydisruptionsaredamagingthereputationofnaturalgasasareliableandaffordableenergysource,castinguncertaintyonitsprospects,particularlyindevelopingcountrieswhereithadbeenexpectedtoplayagrowingroleinmeetingrisingenergydemandandenergytransitiongoals.Globalgasconsumptionisforecasttocontractslightlyin2022,withlimitedgrowthoverthenextthreeyears,resultinginatotalincreaseofabout140bcmbetween2021and2025.Thatislessthanhalfthe370bcmincreaseseeninthepreviousfiveyearsandwellshortoftheexceptionaljumpindemandofcloseto175bcmseenin2021.TheAsiaPacificregionandtheindustrialsectorarethemainenginesofgrowth,accountingfor50%and60%ofthegrowthto2025respectively,althoughbotharesubjecttodownwardrisksfromhighpricesandpotentiallylowereconomicgrowth.TheEuropeanUnion'scommitmenttospeedupthephase-outofRussianimports一historicallyitslargestsupplier-istransformingEurope'sgasmarket,withrepercussionsforglobalgasdynamics.ThelEA's10-PointPlantoReduceth寸EuroDeanUnion'sRelianceonRussianNaturalGasidentifiedmeasurestoreducegasimportsfromRussiabyoverone-thirdwithinayear,andtheEuropeanCommission'sREPowerEUPlanaimsatacompletephase-outwellbeforetheendofthedecade.Thisreport'sbasecaseassumesRussianpipelinegasexportstotheEUwillfallbyover55%between2021and2025;wealsoconsideranacceleratedcaseinwhichRussianpipelinegasexportstotheEUfallbyover75%comparedto2021.ThehugeuncertaintiesinthisareaareamplifiedbythepossibilitythatRussiawillfurtherrestrictitsexportflowsunilaterally,asithasdonealreadyin2022tocertaincountries.Tighterforlonger?Europe'ssurgingdemandforLNGtoreplaceRussianpipelinegassupplyhasledtoanexceptionallytightglobalmarket.RecordhighEuropeangaspriceshaveturnedthecontinentintoapremiummarketforLNG,drawingdeliveriesfromotherregions,andresulting\QQ2022/8/10 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2ieaieaGasMarketReportQ32022insupplytensionsanddemanddestructioninseveralmarkets.Europe'sLNGneedsareexpectedtooutpacesupplycapacityadditionsin2022,andtoaccountformorethan60%ofthenetgrowthinglobalLNGtradethrough2025.LNGliquefactioncapacityadditionsaresettoslowdownsignificantlyovertheforecast'shorizon,raisingtheriskofprolongedtightmarketconditions.Thisresultsfromacombinationofcurtailedinvestmentdecisionsduringtheperiodofloweroilandgaspricesthroughoutthemid-2010s,andconstructiondelaysstemmingfromCovid-19lockdowns(additionalfinalinvestmentdecisionsforLNGliquefactioncapacitytakenoverthelastyearwillcometofruitiononlyaftertheendofourforecastperiod).GlobalLNGtradeisforecasttogrowatanannualaveragerateofjustunder4%during2021-2025,wellbelowthe7%raterecordedoverthepreviousfiveyears.Long-distancepipelinetradeissettodeclinebyanaverage1.9%peryear,principallydrivenbydecliningRussianflowstoEurope.Thescalingupoflow-carbongasproductionandmethaneabatementcanhelpeasesupplypressurewhilereducingemissions.Weforecastbiomethaneproductiontodoublethrough2025,withfurtherupsidepotentialifadditionalpolicymeasuresarequicklyimplemented.Low-carbonhydrogendevelopmentalsocontinuestogaintraction,principallydrivenbyEurope'sstrongGas2022portfolioofprojects.TheIEArsGlobalMethaneTrackershowsthatleaksfromoil,gasandcoaloperationsin2021,ifcapturedandused,couldhavebroughtanadditional180bcmofgastomarket-morethantheprojectedconsumptionincreaseto2025.SlowernaturalgasdemandgrowthdoesnotmeanafasterenergytransitionInourbasecase,globalnaturalgasdemandgrowsatanaverageof0.8%peryearthrough2025,amarkedslowdownonthepreviouseditionofthisreport.However,aboutfour-fifthsofthedownwardrevisionistheconsequencesofslowereconomicactivity,andfromreducedcoal-andoil-to-gasswitchingashighgaspricesdelayconversionplans.Thejointimpactofefficiencyandsubstitutionofgasonlyaccountsforone-fifthofthedifference.Maturegasmarketsaccountcollectivelyforover55%ofthedownwardrevision,withEuropetakingalargeshareofthisdifference.Additionalenergytransitionpolicieswouldneedtobeimplementedinmaturemarketstofurtheracceleratethedeclineofgasconsumption.Suchmeasureswouldalsoeasepressureonpricesgloballyandhelpprice-sensitiveemergingmarketsaccesssuppliesthatcancontributetodeliveringshort-termimprovementsincarbonintensityandairqualitybyquickeningtheirmoveawayfromcoal.GasMarketReportQ32022MainassumptionsbehindtheforecastGlobalGDPregisteredstronggrowthof5.9%in2021,recoveringfromthepandemic-induced3.2%declineof2020andwiththeoutlookfortheglobaleconomyatthestartof2022beingprolongedandrobustexpansion.Butinadditiontothehumanitariancost,Russia'sinvasionofUkraineinFebruary2022createsnewchallengesfortheglobaleconomyatatimewhenmostmarketsaroundtheworldhadrecoveredfromtheeconomicimpactsoftheCovid-19pandemic.Thewarisexacerbatingpre-existingheadwindsbyexertingfurtherinflationarypressureoncommodityprices,causingsupplychaindisruptionandincreasinguncertainty.OurforecastisbasedontheassumptionofaverageannualGDPgrowthof3.5%forthe2022to2025period.GDPgrowthisassumedtobe3.4%globallyin2022,curtailedbyacloseto11%y-o-ydropinRussia'seconomyaffectingthewholeEurasianregion'sperformance(down7%).Otherregionsseetheirgrowthratesmoreorlesshalvedcomparedto2021.Europeisoneofthemostaffectedregionsandseesitseconomicgrowthdropbyclosetotwo-thirds,from6%in2021toananticipated2.3%in2022.China'seconomy,underpressurefromthecombinedchallengesofslowergrowthinactivity,spirallingcommoditypricesandtheresurgenceofCovid-19,isassumedtogrowatslightlyabove4.8%in2022.Gas2022GlobalGDPgrowthisexpectedtoprogressivelyincreaseinthefollowingthreeyears,oscillatingaround3.6-3.7%during2023-2025.Levelsofuncertaintyareveryhighandprincipallyhingeontheevolutionofthewar.Riskstothemacro-economicoutlook,intermsofactivityandinflation,weighonbothnaturalgasdemanddynamicsandsupplyavailabilityandcompetitiveness.TheevolutionoftheCovid-19healthsituationremainsanothermajorriskfactor,specificallytheappearanceandspreadofnewvariants,withhigherriskofcontagionandincreasedresistancetovaccines.ThereturnoflockdownmeasuresinChinaeariyin2022isanillustrationofthisrisk,althoughareturntothewidespreadlockdownsseenin2020lookslesslikely.Naturalgasconsumptionisparticularlysensitivetotheweather,notablytemperature;thisforecastisbasedontheassumptionofaveragewinterconditionsfortheforthcomingheatingseasons.Weuseexternalenergypriceassumptionsinourforecast,basedontheaveragefutures*marketpricesobservedduringthemonthofApril2022.2022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.html川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 22022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.html川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 2Gas2022GasMarketReportQ32022Gas2022EconomicactivityandenergypriceassumptionsNaturalgaspriceassumptions,2019-2025GDPgrowthassumptions,globalandregional,2019-2025Naturalgaspriceassumptions,2019-2025?8%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025World□AsiaPacificEurasia■MiddleEastAfrica■CentralandSouthAmericaEuropeNorthAmericaOilindexationrange?8%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025World□AsiaPacificEurasia■MiddleEastAfrica■CentralandSouthAmericaEuropeNorthAmericaOilindexationrange—TTF HenryHub AsianspotLNGIEAIEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonIMF(2022),WorldEconomicOutlook:OxfordEconomics(2022),EconomicForecasts(subscripbonrequired);CME(2022),HenryHubNaturalGasFuturesQuotes:DutchTTFNaturalGasM&ithFuturesSettlements:EIA(2022),HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice;ICE(2022),JKM?JapanKoreaMarkerLNGFuture:ICIS(2022),ICISLNGEdg(subscriptionrequired);Powemext(2022),SootMaricelDate.Page110ieaPage110ieaVWGas2022Gas2022PhasingoutRussiangas:Anacceleratedcase2022/8/10 2022/8/10 新建文本文檔.htmlPagePage# iea川己:/件:/桌面/報(bào)告審核/新建文本文檔.html 2GasMarketReportQ3-2022China'sdrivetosignnewLNGcontractsandexpanddomesticstoragecouldreduceexposuretomarketvolatilityinthemediumtermNewLNGcontractssignedsinceJanuary2021GasstoragecapacityinChina,2021-2025NewLNGcontractssignedsinceJanuary2021GasstoragecapacityinChina,2021-2025160BysigningdateBydestinationOperationalstoragecapacityin2021UndergroundstorageunderconstructionLNGlankstorageunderconstructionStoragecapacitytargetfor2025160BysigningdateBydestinationOperationalstoragecapacityin2021UndergroundstorageunderconstructionLNGlankstorageunderconstructionStoragecapacitytargetfor2025140120100806040200□Otherstorageandpeak-shavingcapacity.LNGterminalstorageaUndergroundstorageIEA2022.AllrightsreservedSources:IEAanalysisbasedonICIS(2022),ICISLNGEdgeCEDIGAZ(2022).UGSdataset:GIIGNL(2022).AnnualReport.India'sgasdemandgrowthprospects:DownbutnotoutAfteraperiodofstagnatinggasusein2018-2020,India'stotalconsumptionincreasedby4%in2021,provingthatarelativelyhealthyrateofdemandgrowthispossibleinIndiaeveninthefacewidespreadCovid-19-relateddisruption,record-highLNGpricesandextensivefuelswitchingawayfromgasinthemorepricesensitivesectorsoftheeconomy(especiallyinpowerand