濟南大學(xué)科研基金項目

濟南大學(xué)科研基金項目濟南大學(xué)科研基金項目項目名稱：基于氣候驅(qū)動的山地蒙古櫟林與楊樹林演替模擬中文摘要：山地蒙古櫟林和楊樹林是我國北方山地的典型植被類型，對生態(tài)環(huán)境維護、土地保護及經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展均具有重要作用。為了探究氣候變化對山地蒙古櫟林和楊樹林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)演替的影響，本項目將基于山東地區(qū)過去幾十年的氣象數(shù)據(jù)，采用樹木年輪記錄的方法，建立氣候驅(qū)動的蒙古櫟林和楊樹林動態(tài)模型。該模型將綜合考慮氣候、土壤、大氣CO2濃度等因素，模擬蒙古櫟林和楊樹林在不同氣候條件下與環(huán)境相互作用的動態(tài)響應(yīng)，并對其演替過程進行預(yù)測。具體而言，將從以下四個方面開展研究：（1）分析不同氣候條件下山地蒙古櫟林和楊樹林的生長與環(huán)境響應(yīng)關(guān)系。（2）建立樹木年輪記錄的山地蒙古櫟林和楊樹林氣候敏感性指數(shù)，以評估其對溫度、降水等氣象變化的響應(yīng)。（3）基于理論模型，利用歷史氣象數(shù)據(jù)，預(yù)測蒙古櫟林和楊樹林在未來氣候變化情景下的生長和演替。（4）通過合成實驗，探究不同氣候變化情景下蒙古櫟林和楊樹林的演替特點及其對生態(tài)系統(tǒng)動態(tài)變化的影響。本項目將為山地蒙古櫟林和楊樹林的生理生態(tài)機制研究提供新思路，為我國北方山地的生態(tài)環(huán)境保護、森林經(jīng)營管理提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。項目關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化；蒙古櫟林；楊樹林；動態(tài)模擬；樹木年輪記錄Abstract:MountainMongolianoakforestandpoplarforestaretypicalvegetationtypesinnorthernmountainousareasofChina,whichplayanimportantroleinmaintainingecologicalenvironment,landprotectionandsocio-economicdevelopment.InordertoexploretheeffectofclimatechangeontheecologicalsuccessionofmountainMongolianoakforestandpoplarforest,thisprojectwillbebasedonthemeteorologicaldataofShandongregioninthepastdecades,usingtreeringrecords,toestablishclimate-drivendynamicmodelsofMongolianoakforestandpoplarforest.Themodelwillcomprehensivelyconsiderthefactorsofclimate,soil,atmosphericCO2concentration,etc.,simulatethedynamicresponseofMongolianoakforestandpoplarforestandtheirinteractionwiththeenvironmentunderdifferentclimateconditions,andpredicttheirsuccessionprocess.Specifically,theresearchwillbecarriedoutfromthefollowingfouraspects:(1)AnalyzetherelationshipbetweenthegrowthofmountainMongolianoakforestandpoplarforestandtheirenvironmentalresponseunderdifferentclimateconditions.(2)EstablishtheclimatesensitivityindexofmountainMongolianoakforestandpoplarforestrecordedbytreerings,toevaluatetheirresponsetometeorologicalchangessuchastemperatureandprecipitation.(3)Basedontheoreticalmodelsandhistoricalmeteorologicaldata,predictthegrowthandsuccessionofMongolianoakforestandpoplarforestunderfutureclimatechangescenarios.(4)Throughsyntheticexperiments,explorethesuccessioncharacteristicsofMongolianoakforestandpoplarforestunderdifferentclimatechangescenariosandtheirimpactonthedynamicchangesoftheecosystem.ThisprojectwillprovidenewideasforthestudyofphysiologicalandecologicalmechanismsofmountainMongolianoakforestandpoplarforest,andprovidescientificbasisforecologicalenvironmentprotectionandforestmanagementinnorthe