財務管理英文

財務管理英文第1頁/共371頁DevelopmentofFinancialManagementEarly20thcentury:Concentratedonreportingtooutsiders.Early21stcentury:Insidersmanagingandcontrollingthefirm’sfinancialoperations.第2頁/共371頁Attheturnofthetwentiethcenturyfinancialtopicsfocusedontheformationofnewcompaniesandtheirlegalregulationandtheprocessofraisingfundsinthecapitalmarkets.Thecompany’ssecretarywasinchargeofraisingfundsandproducingtheannualreports,aswellastheaccountingfunction.第3頁/共371頁BusinessfailuresduringtheGreatDepressionofthe1930shelpedchangethefocusoffinance.Increasedemphasiswasplacedonbankruptcy,liquiditymanagementandavoidanceoffinancialproblems.第4頁/共371頁AfterWorldWarⅡtheemphasisofcorporatefinanceswitchedfromfinancialaccountingandexternalreportingtocostaccountingandreportingandfinancialanalysisonbehalfofthefirm’smanagers.Thatis,theperspectiveoffinancechangedfromreportingonlytooutsiderstothatofaninsiderchargedwiththemanagementandcontrolofthefirm’sfinancialoperations.第5頁/共371頁Capitalbudgetingbecameamajortopicinfinance.Thisledtoanincreasedinterestinrelatedtopics,mostnotablyfirmvaluation.Interestinthesetopicsgrewandinturnspurredinterestinsecurityanalysis,portfoliotheoryandcapitalstructuretheory.第6頁/共371頁ChiefAccountantCorporateTreasurerTypicalFinanceStructureChiefFinancialOfficer第7頁/共371頁Chiefaccountantisalsocalledfinancialcontroller,whoseresponsibilitiesincludefinancialreportingtooutsidersaswellascostandmanagerialaccountingandfinancialanalysisonbehalfofthefirm’smanagers.Corporatetreasurerisinchargeofraisingfunds,managingliquidityandbankingrelationshipsandcontrollingrisks.第8頁/共371頁FinancialGoaloftheFirmProfitmaximisation?Inmicroeconomicscoursesprofitmaximisationisfrequentlygivenasthefinancialgoalofthefirm.Profitmaximisationfunctionslargelyasatheoreticalgoal.

第9頁/共371頁Problems:UNCERTAINTYofreturnsTIMINGofreturns

第10頁/共371頁Shareholderwealthmaximisation?

Sameas:MaximisingfirmvalueMaximisingsharevalues第11頁/共371頁Ittakesintoaccountuncertaintyorrisk,time,andotherfactorsthatareimportanttotheowners.Butmanythingsaffectshareprices.Difficulty:Theagencyproblem第12頁/共371頁AgencyproblemTheagencyproblemreferstothefactthatafirm’smanagerswillnotworktomaximisebenefitstothefirm’sownersunlessitisinthemanagers’interesttodoso.Thisproblemistheresultofaseparationofthemanagementandownershipofthefirm.第13頁/共371頁AgencyCostsThecosts,suchasreducedshareprice,associatedwithpotentialconflictbetweenmanagersandinvestorswhenthesetwogroupsarenotthesame.第14頁/共371頁Inordertolessentheagencyproblem,somecompanieshaveadoptedpracticessuchasissuingstockoptions(shareoptions)totheirexecutives.第15頁/共371頁FinancialDecisionsandRisk-returnRelationshipsAlmostallfinancialdecisionsinvolvesomesortofrisk-returntrade-off.Themoreriskthefirmiswillingtoassume,thehighertheexpectedreturnfromagivencourseofaction.第16頁/共371頁RiskandReturnsRiskExpectedReturns第17頁/共371頁WhyPricesReflectValueEfficientMarketsMarketsinwhichthevaluesofallassetsandsecuritiesatanyinstantintimefullyreflectallavailableinformation.Assumption第18頁/共371頁OrganisationalFormsSoleproprietorshipsPartnershipsCompanies第19頁/共371頁NatureoftheorganisationalformsSoleproprietorshipOwnedbyasingleindividualAbsenceofanyformallegalbusinessstructureTheownermaintainstitletotheassetsandispersonallyresponsible,generallywithoutlimitation,fortheliabilitiesincurred.Theproprietorisentitledtotheprofitsfromthebusinessbutalsoabsorbanylosses.第20頁/共371頁PartnershipTheprimarydifferencebetweenapartnershipandasoleproprietorshipisthatthepartnershiphasmorethanoneowner.Eachpartnerisjointlyandseverallyresponsiblefortheliabilitiesincurredbythepartnership.第21頁/共371頁CompanyAcompanymayoperateabusinessinitsownright.Thatis,thisentityfunctionsseparatelyandapartfromitsowners.Theownerselectaboardofdirectors,whosemembersinturnselectindividualstoserveascorporateofficers,includingthemanagerandthecompanysecretary.Theshareholder’sliabilityisgenerallylimitedtotheamountofhisorherinvestmentinthecompany.第22頁/共371頁Limitedcompany(Ltd)andproprietarylimitedcompany(PtyLtd)Ltdcompaniesaregenerallypubliccompanieswhosesharesmaybelistedonastockexchange,ownershipinsuchsharesbeingtransferablebypublicsalethroughtheexchange.PtyLtdcompaniesarebasicallyprivateentities,asthesharescanonlybetransferredprivately.第23頁/共371頁ComparisonofOrganisationalformsOrganisationrequirementsandcostsLiabilityofownersContinuityofbusinessTransferabilityofownershipManagementcontrolEaseofcapitalraisingIncometaxes第24頁/共371頁TheflowoffundsSavingsdeficitunitsSavingssurplusunitsFinancialmarketsfacilitatetransfersoffundsfromsurplustodeficitunitsDirectflowsoffindsIndirectflowsoffunds第25頁/共371頁DirecttransferoffundsCashSecuritiessaversfirms第26頁/共371頁TypesofsecuritiesTreasuryBillsandTreasuryBondsCorporateBondsPreferredSharesOrdinarySharesRisk?HighReturns?Relationship?第27頁/共371頁Broking&

investmentbankingHowdobrokers

/investmentbankershelpfirmsissuesecurities?AdvisingthefirmUnderwritingtheissueDistributingtheissueEnhancingCredibility第28頁/共371頁IndirecttransferoffundsIntermediarySecuritiesFirmSecuritiesfinancialintermediaryfirmssaversFundsFunds第29頁/共371頁ComponentsoffinancialmarketsPrimaryandsecondarymarketsCapitalandmoneymarketsForeign-exchangemarketsDerivativesmarketsStockexchangemarkets第30頁/共371頁Primaryand

secondarymarketsPrimarymarketsSellingofnewsecuritiesFundsraisedbygovernmentsandbusinessesSecondarymarketsResellingofexistingsecuritiesAddsmarketabilityandliquiditytoprimarymarketsReducesriskonprimaryissuesFundsraisedbyexistingsecurityholders第31頁/共371頁Capital&moneymarketsCapitalmarketsMarketsinlong-termfinancialinstrumentsByconvention:termsgreaterthanoneyearLong-termdebtandequitymarketsBonds,shares,leases,convertiblesMoneymarketsMarketsinshort-termfinancialinstrumentsByconvention:termslessthanoneyearTreasurynotes,certificatesofdeposit,commercialbills,promissorynotes第32頁/共371頁ReviewsIntroducethehistoryoffinancialmanagementUnderstandthefinancialgoalofdecision-makingUnderstandthelimitationsofagoalofprofitmaximisationIntroducerisk-returntrade-offofdecisionsIntroducemarketefficiencyDistinguishbetweentheformsofbusinessorganisationsUnderstandthefinancialmarket第33頁/共371頁EndofChapter1第34頁/共371頁Chapter4:MathematicsofFinance

第35頁/共371頁TheTimeValueofMoneyCompoundingandDiscounting:SinglesumsTodayFuture第36頁/共371頁Weknowthatreceiving$1todayisworthmorethan$1inthefuture.ThisisduetoOPPORTUNITYCOSTS.Theopportunitycostofreceiving$1inthefutureistheinterestwecouldhaveearnedifwehadreceivedthe$1sooner.TodayFuture第37頁/共371頁wecanMEASUREthisopportunitycostby:Translate$1todayintoitsequivalentinthefuture(COMPOUNDING).Translate$1inthefutureintoitsequivalenttoday(DISCOUNTING).??TodayFutureTodayFuture第38頁/共371頁Note:It’seasiesttouseyourfinancialfunctionsonyourcalculatortosolvetimevalueproblems.However,youwillneedalotofpracticetoeliminatemistakes.第39頁/共371頁FutureValue第40頁/共371頁FutureValue-singlesums

Ifyoudeposit$100inanaccountearning6%,howmuchwouldyouhaveintheaccountafter1year?MathematicalSolution:FV1=PV(1+i)1=100(1.06)1

=$106

0 1PV=-100 FV=?第41頁/共371頁FutureValue-singlesums

Ifyoudeposit$100inanaccountearning6%,howmuchwouldyouhaveintheaccountafter2year?MathematicalSolution:FV2=FV1(1+i)1=PV(1+i)2=100(1.06)2

=$112.4

0 2PV=-100 FV=?第42頁/共371頁FutureValue-singlesums

Ifyoudeposit$100inanaccountearning6%,howmuchwouldyouhaveintheaccountafter3year?MathematicalSolution:FV3=FV2(1+i)1=PV(1+i)3=100(1.06)3

=$119.1

0 3PV=-100 FV=?第43頁/共371頁FutureValue-singlesums

Ifyoudeposit$100inanaccountearning6%,howmuchwouldyouhaveintheaccountafter4year?MathematicalSolution:FV4=FV3(1+i)1=PV(1+i)4=100(1.06)4

=$126.2

0 4PV=-100 FV=?第44頁/共371頁FutureValue-singlesums

Ifyoudeposit$100inanaccountearning6%,howmuchwouldyouhaveintheaccountafter5years?MathematicalSolution:FV5=FV4(1+i)1=PV(1+i)5=100(1.06)5

=$133.82

0 5PV=-100 FV=?第45頁/共371頁FutureValue-singlesums

Ifyoudeposit$100inanaccountearningi,howmuchwouldyouhaveintheaccountafternyears?MathematicalSolution:FVn=PV(1+i)n=PV(FVIFi,n

)

0 nPV=-100 FV=?第46頁/共371頁Example4.1Example4.2Example4.3Example4.4第47頁/共371頁Untilnowithasassumedthatthecompoundingperiodisalwaysannual.Butinterestcanbecompoundedonaquarterly,monthlyordailybasis,andevencontinuously.Example4.5第48頁/共371頁FutureValue-singlesums

Ifyoudeposit$100inanaccountearning6%withquarterlycompounding,howmuchwouldyouhaveintheaccountafter5years?MathematicalSolution:FV=PV(FVIFi,n

)FV=100(FVIF.015,20

)(can’tuseFVIFtable)FV=PV(1+I/m)mxNFV=100(1.015)20=$134.68

0 20PV=-100 FV=?第49頁/共371頁PresentValue第50頁/共371頁Incompoundingwetalkedaboutthecompoundinterestrateandinitialinvestment;Indeterminingthepresentvaluewewilltalkaboutthediscountrateandpresentvalue.Thediscountrateissimplytheinterestratethatconvertsafuturevaluetothepresentvalue.第51頁/共371頁Example4.7Example4.8第52頁/共371頁PresentValue-singlesums

Ifyouwillreceive$1005yearsfromnow,whatisthePVofthat$100ifyouropportunitycostis6%?MathematicalSolution:PV=FV/(1+i)n=100/(1.06)5=$74.73PV=FV(PVIFi,n

)=100(PVIF.06,5

)(usePVIFtable)=$74.73

0 5PV=? FV=100第53頁/共371頁

0 5PV=5,000 FV=11,933PresentValue-singlesums

Ifyousoldlandfor$11,933thatyoubought5yearsagofor$5,000,whatisyourannualrateofreturn?第54頁/共371頁MathematicalSolution:PV=FV(PVIFi,n)5,000=11,933(PVIF?,5)PV=FV/(1+i)n5,000=11,933/(1+i)5

.419=((1/(1+i)5)2.3866=(1+i)5(2.3866)1/5=(1+i)i=0.19第55頁/共371頁Example4.9第56頁/共371頁TheTimeValueofMoneyCompoundingandDiscountingCashFlowStreams01234第57頁/共371頁AnnuitiesAnnuity:asequenceofequalcashflows,occurringattheendofeachperiod.01234第58頁/共371頁ExamplesofAnnuities:Ifyoubuyabond,youwillreceiveequalcouponinterestpaymentsoverthelifeofthebond.Ifyouborrowmoneytobuyahouseoracar,youwillpayastreamofequalpayments.第59頁/共371頁FutureValue-annuity

Ifyouinvest$1,000attheendofthenext3years,at8%,howmuchwouldyouhaveafter3years?

0 1 2 3

1000 1000 1000第60頁/共371頁MathematicalSolution:FV=PMT(FVIFAi,n

)FV=1,000(FVIFA.08,3

)(useFVIFAtable,or)FV=PMT(1+i)n-1 iFV=1,000(1.08)3-1=$3246.40 0.08第61頁/共371頁Example4.11第62頁/共371頁PresentValue-annuity

WhatisthePVof$1,000attheendofeachofthenext3years,iftheopportunitycostis8%?

0 1 2 3

1000 1000 1000第63頁/共371頁MathematicalSolution:PV=PMT(PVIFAi,n

)PV=1,000(PVIFA.08,3

)(usePVIFAtable,or) 1PV=PMT1-(1+i)n

i 1PV=10001-(1.08)3 =$2,577.10 .08第64頁/共371頁Example4.12第65頁/共371頁Interpolationwithinfinancialtables:findingmissingtablevaluesExample1:PV=1000(PVIFA2.5%,6)Example2:1000=100(PVIFA?%,12months)第66頁/共371頁PerpetuitiesSupposeyouwillreceiveafixedpaymenteveryperiod(month,year,etc.)forever.Thisisanexampleofaperpetuity.Youcanthinkofaperpetuityasanannuitythatgoesonforever.第67頁/共371頁PresentValueofaPerpetuityWhenwefindthePVofanannuity,wethinkofthefollowingrelationship:

PV=PMT(PVIFAi,n)第68頁/共371頁Mathematically,(PVIFAi,n)=Wesaidthataperpetuityisanannuitywheren=infinity.Whathappenstothisformulawhenngetsvery,verylarge?1-

1(1+i)ni第69頁/共371頁1-1(1+i)niWhenngetsverylarge,

1we’releftwithPVIFA= i第70頁/共371頁PMTiPV=So,thePVofaperpetuityisverysimpletofind:PV=PMT/iPresentValueofaPerpetuity第71頁/共371頁Whatshouldyoubewillingtopayinordertoreceive$10,000annuallyforever,ifyourequire8%peryearontheinvestment?PMTiPV==$10,000

0.08=

$125,000第72頁/共371頁Example4.13第73頁/共371頁OtherCashFlowPatterns0123第74頁/共371頁$1000$1000$100045678OrdinaryAnnuityversusDueAnnuity第75頁/共371頁Earlier,weexaminedthis“ordinary”annuity:Usinganinterestrateof8%,wefindthat:TheFutureValue(at3)is$3,246.40.ThePresentValue(at0)is$2,577.10.

0 1 2 3 1000 1000 1000第76頁/共371頁Whataboutthisannuity?Same3-yeartimeline,Same3$1000cashflows,butThecashflowsoccuratthebeginningofeachyear,ratherthanattheendofeachyear.Thisisan“annuitydue.”

0 1 2 3

1000 1000 1000第77頁/共371頁

0 1 2 3

-1000 -1000 -1000FutureValue-annuitydue

Ifyouinvest$1,000atthebeginningofeachofthenext3yearsat8%,howmuchwouldyouhaveattheendofyear3?

第78頁/共371頁MathematicalSolution:

SimplycompoundtheFVoftheordinaryannuityonemoreperiod:FV=PMT(FVIFAi,n

)(1+i)FV=1,000(FVIFA.08,3

)(1.08) (useFVIFAtable,or)FV=PMT(1+i)n–1(1+i) iFV=1,000(1.08)3-1(1.08)=$3,506.11 0.08第79頁/共371頁

0 1 2 3

10001000 1000PresentValue-annuitydue

WhatisthePVof$1,000atthebeginningofeachofthenext3years,ifyouropportunitycostis8%?

第80頁/共371頁MathematicalSolution:

SimplycompoundtheFVoftheordinaryannuityonemoreperiod:PV=PMT(PVIFAi,n

)(1+i)PV=1,000(PVIFA.08,3

)(1.08) (usePVIFAtable,or) 1PV=PMT1-(1+i)n(1+i) i 1PV=10001-(1.08)3(1.08) =2,783.26 0.08

第81頁/共371頁Isthisanannuity?HowdowefindthePVofacashflowstreamwhenallofthecashflowsaredifferent?(Usea10%discountrate).UnevenCashFlows01234-10,0002,0004,0006,0007,000第82頁/共371頁UnevenCashFlowsSorry!There’snoquickieforthisone.Wehavetodiscounteachcashflowbackseparately.01234-10,0002,0004,0006,0007,000第83頁/共371頁

period

CF

PV(CF)0 -10,000 -10,000.001 2,000 1,818.182 4,000 3,305.793 6,000 4,507.894 7,000 4,781.09PVofCashFlowStream:$4,412.9501234-10,0002,0004,0006,0007,000第84頁/共371頁RetirementExampleAftergraduation,youplantoinvest$400permonthinthestockmarket.Ifyouearn12%peryearonyourstocks,howmuchwillyouhaveaccumulatedwhenyouretirein30years?0123...360400400400400第85頁/共371頁MathematicalSolution:FV=PMT(FVIFAi,n

)FV=400(FVIFA.01,360

)(can’tuseFVIFAtable)FV=PMT(1+i)n-1 i

FV=400(1.01)360-1=$1,397,985.65 .01第86頁/共371頁HousePaymentExampleIfyouborrow$100,000at7%fixedinterestfor30yearsinordertobuyahouse,whatwillbeyourmonthlyhousepayment?第87頁/共371頁MathematicalSolution:PV=PMT(PVIFAi,n

)100,000=PMT(PVIFA.005833,360

)(can’tusePVIFAtable) 1PV=PMT1-(1+i)n

i

1100,000=PMT1-(1.005833)360 PMT=$665.30 0.005833 第88頁/共371頁CalculatingPresentandFutureValuesforsinglecashflowsforanunevenstreamofcashflowsforannuitiesandperpetuitiesForeachproblemidentify:

i,n,PMT,PVandFVSummary第89頁/共371頁chapter9Riskandratesofreturn第90頁/共371頁Infinancialmarkets,firmsseekfinancingfortheirinvestmentsandshareholdersofacompanyachievemuchoftheirwealththroughsharepricemovements.Involvementwithfinancialmarketsisrisky.Thedegreeofriskvariesfromonefinancialsecuritytoanother.第91頁/共371頁ImportantprincipleReturnRiskAlmostalwaystrue:Thegreatertheexpectedreturn,thegreatertherisk第92頁/共371頁1926-1999：theannualratesofreturninAmericanfinancialmarket第93頁/共371頁RatesofreturnHistoricalreturn ThereturnthatanassethasalreadyproducedoveraspecifiedperiodoftimeExpectedreturn ThereturnthatanassetisexpectedtoproduceoversomefutureperiodoftimeRequiredreturn Thereturnthataninvestorrequiresanassettoproduceifhe/sheistobeafutureinvestorinthatasset第94頁/共371頁RatesofreturnNominal TheactualrateofreturnpaidorearnedwithoutmakinganyallowanceforinflationReal ThenominalrateofreturnadjustedfortheeffectofinflationEffective Thenominalrateofreturnadjustedformorefrequentcalculation(orcompounding)thanonceperannum第95頁/共371頁Whenaninterestrateisquotedinfinancialmarketsitisgenerallyexpressedasanominalrate.Forexample,ifabankadvertisesthatitwillpayinterestof5%perannumondeposits,thisinterestrateismostlikelytobethenominalrate.Wheninflationisdeductedfromthisnominalrate,therealrateofinterestisobtained.(Butthisisnotexactlycorrect!)Tobemoreprecise,……第96頁/共371頁InterestratedeterminantsInterestRates第97頁/共371頁AdjustingforinflationConceptually:Nominalinterestratei=RealinterestrateR+AnticipatedinflationraterMathematically:(1+i)=(1+R)(1+r)T

i=R+r+rRUsuallysmallandignored第98頁/共371頁CalculatingexpectedreturnsStateofeconomyRecessionNormalBoomProbabilityP0.200.500.30ReturnAB4%10%14%-10%14%30%ExpectedreturnisjustaweightedaverageR*=P(R1)xR1+P(R2)xR2+…+P(Rn)xRn第99頁/共371頁CasestudyStateofeconomyRecessionNormalBoomProbabilityP0.200.500.30ReturnAB4%10%14%-10%14%30%CompanyAR*=P(R1)xR1+P(R2)xR2+…+P(Rn)xRnRA*=0.2x4%+0.5x10%+0.3x14%=10%第100頁/共371頁CasestudyStateofeconomyRecessionNormalBoomProbabilityP0.200.500.30ReturnAB4%10%14%-10%14%30%CompanyBR*=P(R1)xR1+P(R2)xR2+…+P(Rn)xRnRB*=0.2x-10%+0.5x14%+0.3x30%=14%第101頁/共371頁Basedonlyonyourexpectedreturncalculations,whichcompanysharewouldyouprefer?第102頁/共371頁Theaboveexampleillustratesthat,

Althoughitisextremelydifficulttopredictwithaccuracywhatthereturnwillbeonaninvestment,whatwecandoismakepredictionsabouttherangeofreturns,theprobabilitywithwhichacertainreturnwilleventuateandhencethereturnthatwecouldexpecttoget.So,theexpectedrateofreturnmaybedefinedastheweightedaverageofallpossibleoutcomes!第103頁/共371頁HaveyouconsideredRISK?第104頁/共371頁RiskWhatisrisk TheuncertaintyorvariabilityordispersionaroundthemeanvalueHowtomeasurerisk Variance,standarddeviation,betaHowtoreducerisk DiversificationHowtopricerisk Securitymarketline,CAPM,APT第105頁/共371頁ForaTreasurysecurity,whatistherequiredrateofreturn?Requiredrateofreturn=Risk-freerateofreturnReason:Treasurysecuritiesarefreeofdefaultrisk第106頁/共371頁Foracompanysecurity,whatistherequiredrateofreturn?Requiredrateofreturn=Risk-freerateofreturnHowlargeariskpremiumshouldwerequiretobuyacorporatesecurity?+Riskpremium第107頁/共371頁Foracompanystock,whatistherequiredrateofreturn?Requiredrateofreturn=Risk-freerateofreturnHowlargeariskpremiumshouldwerequiretobuyastock?+Riskpremium第108頁/共371頁ReturnRiskAlmostalwaystrue:Thegreatertheexpectedreturn,thegreatertherisk第109頁/共371頁1926-1999：theannualratesofreturninAmericanfinancialmarket第110頁/共371頁Whatisrisk?ThepossibilitythatanactualreturnwilldifferfromourexpectedreturnUncertaintyinthedistributionofpossibleoutcomes第111頁/共371頁Uncertaintyinthedistributionofpossibleoutcomesreturn(%)Company2Company1return(%)第112頁/共371頁Howdowemeasurerisk?Generalidea:Share’spricerangeoverthepastyearMorescientificapproach:Share’sstandarddeviationofreturnsStandarddeviationisameasureofthedispersionofpossibleoutcomesThegreaterthestandarddeviation,thegreatertheuncertainty,andtherefore,thegreatertherisk第113頁/共371頁Standarddeviation–probabilitydata=(

Ri-

R*

)2P(

Ri

)sS

ni=1第114頁/共371頁CalculatingStandarddeviationStateofeconomyRecessionNormalBoomProbabilityP0.200.500.30ReturnAB4%10%14%-10%14%30%RA=10%RB=14%第115頁/共371頁Casestudy=(

Ri-

R*

)2P(

Ri

)sS

ni=1CompanyA(4%-10%)2(0.2) =7.2(10%-10%)2(0.5) =0.0(14%-10%)2(0.3) =4.8 Variance=s2 =12.0Standarddeviation =?12.0=3.46%第116頁/共371頁Casestudy=(

Ri-

R*

)2P(

Ri

)sS

ni=1CompanyB(-10%-14%)2(0.2) =115.2(14%-14%)2(0.5) =0.0(30%-14%)2(0.3) =76.8 Variance=s2 =192.0Standarddeviation =?192.0=13.86%第117頁/共371頁ShareAShareBCasestudysummaryExpectedreturn10%14%Standarddeviation3.46%13.86%第118頁/共371頁CasestudyWhichsharewouldyouprefer?Howwouldyoudecide?第119頁/共371頁Rememberthetrade-off!ReturnRiskItdependsonyourtoleranceforrisk!Whichsharedoyouprefer?Thatmeansthereisnosinglerightanswer!第120頁/共371頁Investors’attitudetowardsriskRisk-averse:TrytoavoidriskRisk-loveTrytoaccepthighriskRisk-neutralTobeindifferencetorisk第121頁/共371頁PortfoliosCombiningseveralsecuritiesinaportfolioCanRiskˉˉHowdoesthiswork?第122頁/共371頁ATwo-shareportfolioReturnsTimeBPortfolioPerfectnegativecorrelationremovesrisk第123頁/共371頁Perfectdiversification.RiskisminimisedNoeffectonriskperfectlypositivelycorrelatedSimplediversificationperfectlynegativelycorrelatedIfsecuritiesareInvestingintwosecuritiestoreducerisk第124頁/共371頁PortfolioriskDependson:ProportionoffundsinvestedineachassetTheriskassociatedwitheachassetintheportfolioTherelationshipbetweeneachassetintheportfoliowithrespecttorisk第125頁/共371頁QuestionsIfyouownedashareofeverystocktradedonthemarket,wouldyoubediversified?YES!Wouldyouhaveeliminatedallofyourrisk?NO!Considerstockmarket“crashes”!第126頁/共371頁TwotypesofriskinaportfolioDiversifiableriskFirm-specificriskCompany-uniqueriskUnsystematicriskNon-diversifiableriskMarket-relatedriskMarketriskSystematicriskCanbeeliminatedbydiversificationCannotbeeliminatedbydiversif