技術介紹教程

技術分析介紹亞當·索拉博國際技術分析聯(lián)盟主席，CQS技術分析總監(jiān)中文翻譯由河源外匯論壇友情提供北京2011年9月6日內容什么是技術分析技術分析的歷史技術分析對

基本面經濟/金融分析技術分析研究的對象及其假設技術分析的類型（圖表、振蕩指標、型態(tài)與分形）趨勢、反轉、周期運用技術分析進行交易與投資：關于概率以及出市入市的價位對技術分析之批判附錄——推薦閱讀資料及學術參考2什么是技術分析？“技術分析是指分析證券歷史價格從而預測未來價格走勢的過程?！笔袌鲱A測只建立在價格、時間、成交量、未平倉合約信息的基礎之上而忽略如盈利、現(xiàn)金流、資產負債表等基本面數(shù)據(jù)3技術分析的歷史技術分析的起源可追溯到幾百年前

已知的最古老的技術分析方法由本間宗久（MunehisaHomma）所發(fā)明，并在18世紀早期應用于大米市場

技術分析在美國的發(fā)展可追溯到查爾士·道（CharlesH.Dow）從1900年開始在華爾街日報發(fā)表的技術分析論文4技術分析的歷史從此以后，更多的技術分析工具得到了發(fā)展，而且越來越強調計算機輔助技術。5技術分析VS基本面經濟/金融分析基本面分析利用宏觀和微觀的經濟數(shù)據(jù)來預測國家、企業(yè)、個人的宏觀和微觀結果。

他們使用基本面數(shù)據(jù)來構造未來現(xiàn)金流和投資回報的模型。技術分析則使用價格、時間、交易活動數(shù)據(jù)，來預測未來價格范圍和活動的概率。

我們使用技術數(shù)據(jù)來建立交易和投資策略。6技術分析的研究對象價格=任何交易活躍的證券、貨幣或大宗商品的價格歷史

時間=年度、月度、每周、每日、日間數(shù)據(jù)

交易數(shù)據(jù)=成交量以及未平倉合約7技術分析的假設市場價格反映了任何時刻的所有已知信息。市場價格會對額外的信息做出反應。

市場參與者不斷變化的情緒和活動會留下一連串變化著的價格和市場活動的蹤跡，用技術分析為之建造模型，可預測未來的價格范圍和變動。8技術分析的類型

（圖表、振蕩指標、型態(tài)與分形）重要價位（依重要程度排列）1）現(xiàn)價=當前的交易價2）收市價=某一日（或其他時段）交易活動結束前最后一筆交易的成交價格3）開市價=某時段開始的價格4）最高價=該時段內最高的成交價格；最低價=該時段內最低的成交價格9收市價、開市價、最高價、最低價收市價=一日（或其他時段）交易活動結束前最后一筆交易的成交價格開市價=某交易時段開始的價格最高價=該時段內最高的成交價格最低價=該時段內最低的成交價格10最高價=2.5收市價=1.8開市價=2.2最低價=1.5在這個交易時段里，市場開市價為2.2，最高價為2.5，最低價為1.5，最后收于1.8。技術分析師在為下個交易時段制定交易策略時會考慮這些價格水平。圖表的類型線形圖柱狀圖K線圖OX圖市場概覽(又譯四度空間)11線形圖12線形圖只使用收盤價的歷史記錄這類型的圖包含了有限但關鍵的信息就價格歷史而言，長期數(shù)據(jù)在半對數(shù)刻度中有時候會更有用。1992年來上海A股指數(shù)算術標度1992年來上海A股指數(shù)半對數(shù)標度支撐支撐=預期購買活動集中的價格水平支撐水平可在一系列技術指標基礎上識別出來在先前價格最低位或者“突破”的水平上常常能看到支撐現(xiàn)象13上海A股指數(shù)-2008年8月-2011年6月橫向支撐趨勢支撐阻力=預期出售活動集中的價格水平支撐水平可在一系列技術指標基礎上識別出來在先前價格最高位或者“突破”的水平上常常能看到阻力現(xiàn)象阻力14上海A股指數(shù)-2008年8月-2011年6月橫向阻力趨勢阻力柱狀圖柱狀圖包含開市價、最高價、最低價、收市價的信息。柱狀圖展示了每個交易時段的價格范圍和清晰度。15最高價=2.5收市價=1.8開市價=2.2最低價=1.52006年以來S&P500指數(shù)算術標度K線圖16陰陽音燭圖患包含出開市紋價、窮最高移價、班最低場價、攤收市鐮價的淘信息譽。用不常同的初顏色前標識前上升摘或下刪跌的蹤蝶交易拼日，鄙從而值強調丑每個唇市場善時段飽的不違同心搏理。連續(xù)摩幾個叫陰陽司燭的澤組合鉗能有麻效反糕映變犬化著出的市榴場心吉理17陰陽待燭圖20謝11年2月以玩來歐只元兌飯美元錘頭——牛市較形態(tài)頂部愧三星——熊市手形態(tài)前進喂白色心三兵——牛市觸形態(tài)18OX圖點數(shù)或圖忽莫略時窮間因繩素，晝只記似錄交隊易價終格水雕平的震實質梁變化洲。點數(shù)草圖為懷技術橫分析尊師提址供了矩忽略密時間弟因素賽而分澇析市蒸場行隆為的己另一樓種途謹徑。20瘦06年6月以躍來黃躬金走量勢點數(shù)死圖凸念顯支磨撐和根阻力體水平19市場概覽市場廳輪廓毒圖以枕時間聲分配兇的形囑式記栽錄成擋交價輕格，單一個植交易塑時段離里不恨同分耍段的奴每個羅成交哲價格寬用不券同的茫字母鋪來表若示。市場概覽市場概覽圖對汽于在特證券董交易食所交股易的老證券瞇尤為眼有效燙，每槳個成些交價貨格的毀成交雞量都帆可以橫得到基利用盼。20成交刃量分辰析成交萌量是滿某一龜特定鍵交易原時段輸或價這格水境平上縱成交怨的證巡壽券價深值。2120距08年6月以送來的Go捕og神le價格繁未達塞到預蓮期高訪位，角人們慰紛紛筆拋售堅，導旨致成貨交量種出現(xiàn)姐峰值價格幕在$3申50左右涂時，狐買入交者涌捎入市孝場，肝導致詳成交陰量增腥大未平播倉量躺分析未平幕倉量容是指叔某特苗定市肯場在斃某交梅易時趟段結蹄束時普，多籍方所串持有溉或空灑方所嶄拋空犯的契累約口譯數(shù)。2220企11年2月以呼來的堪可可津期貨下跌聽趨勢授加劇獨，未煌平倉抱量增欠加，想從而所強化民熊市涼預期市場塌參與趙者獲緣瑞利，治未平越倉量姨減少趨勢款分析市場木上存均在趨私勢。好順應棒趨勢捐而持釘有的妻倉位騎比逆鄭勢而部為更縣有可濫能獲姨得盈護利。技術覺分析擴師試失圖使夏用幾薄何和獎數(shù)學塘技術鵲來識防別市留場的梁趨勢譯及其范圍。2320罷02年-2收00抬9年S&患P畝50鎖0指數(shù)20盆08年8月持獲續(xù)已辰久的穿上漲朽趨勢義出現(xiàn)貿轉折克，標插志著陣大跌斗的開姜始出現(xiàn)斑上升漸趨勢察前有盼好幾撿個買浪入機棟會趨勢精分析技術隱分析完師可銷使用米移動肥平均伯數(shù)來償使數(shù)恩據(jù)平甩滑化甩，從利而識供別趨身勢和悶趨勢彈變動嘴。2420暮02年-2詳00席9年S&喚P豆50垃0指數(shù)20印08年8月長叛期上浸升趨冰勢戛目然而捆止，令慢速匠快速笑移動鞭平均縱線的荷交叉輕預示鼻著跌猴勢到根來從20具0天移雄動平玩均價西格可釀看出質上升暈趨勢謝，在革上升夕趨勢隔出現(xiàn)務前有宋很多惑買入激機會反轉盒分析每個晴趨勢旱結束石時會摧發(fā)生溜反轉掘，市疾場先它前的沸方向妥動搖急不定裝，趨泰勢的碑變化蔽日益鋪明顯石。技術拒分析找?guī)熢嚹﹫D識息別常動見的安反轉瞇形態(tài)鍵以及敢反轉凝市場糠行為夏的信熊號，獻從而急察覺噸市場啟方向按改變光的預膊警。25牛勢隊錘子貫形態(tài)盞和雙切重谷陪底標姑志著20券00年黃方金市礎場熊許勢的辭反轉驢，當貿時價袋格為25屢5美元20央00年7月至20詠01年6月的各黃金形態(tài)恰分析隨著毀時間鵝的推及移，呢市場膏往往廊會呈蠶現(xiàn)常距見的禿行為惰形態(tài)鄉(xiāng)豐。技術填分析爭師試棚圖識屯別常獲見的飄價格失形態(tài)受，從餅而制巷定利嶄用這將些價忠格形瘡態(tài)的五交易稼策略舍。26無法井突破央先前孤更高尚價格——熊勢拆形態(tài)旗形罷是“律持續(xù)免形態(tài)芹”，根預示編著市場場重罷拾先等前趨奇勢前的會有馳一段蜓“整補固”燙形態(tài)顯。牛勢鴿“倒惱置頭尾肩形縮慧態(tài)”袍預示淘先前番熊市咱的結絹束成功竿“突攀破”激標志辨著上屑升趨拉勢的舌持續(xù)分形吩分析隨著抬時間鑰的推梅移，礦趨勢治通常夠會呈轎現(xiàn)出風常見稼的價伶格形優(yōu)態(tài)和脈分形息行為碎。技術木分析禽師試展圖識白別價枯格分瘡形，名利用汽某特宵定趨惜勢或回調的演效變來制定根一些差交易呼系統(tǒng)逼。27分形筑分析19宿96年至20佳09年標憐普50倚0的艾脫略特噴波浪銹圖28周期噸分析所有識市場黎、多上重時默間段摩都會脾呈現(xiàn)罪出周察期性區(qū)。技術店分析巡壽師試天圖識敲別市內場周閱期，紛從而牢制定逢一些輸交易見系統(tǒng)足來利翼用每門個周傘期以舒及該毀周期膨與其口他時咱間周謎期之乓間可繞能存騰在的援諧波糖。29振蕩鐮指標振蕩田指標仰把歷駛史上廢的價些格信辰息放浮進數(shù)宵學模曉型中統(tǒng)，使襲數(shù)據(jù)診平滑壞化，敢同時殿突出改動能荒和市漢場特皂征的在改變雷。30相對炸強弱踩指數(shù)溜從70貪%以上鹽跌到70披%以下=熊市海信號相對魂強弱領指數(shù)瞇從30質%以下勞上升梅至30艱%以上=牛市瓶信號從20桃10年7月至20準11年6月日續(xù)元兌暖美元振蕩及指標有很約多不知同的察振蕩他指標經研究粉（不達下一誓百種樸）每一易種研怕究都乘試圖載突出在價格寶和市純場行秤為的輔不同肌方面有些哄更適勉合趨擔勢市廉場，相有些董更適信合橫哀向市程場有些饑振蕩渡指標撲甚至潔尋求裹比較滾趨勢鋤市場勞和橫宵向市總場，演比如鞏動向壤指數(shù)明（DM辱I）3120徑10年7月至20滅11年7月黃忽金的拔動向摸指數(shù)拆圖表動向恥指數(shù)餐預示邀著不墊斷加莫強的輪上升瘡趨勢動向棄指數(shù)議一開啦始預碎示減孔弱的法上升貴趨勢聽，而先后轉干為較行弱的晉下降澤趨勢動向構指數(shù)睡預示咽著不要斷加拆強的芳上升咱趨勢不斷基減弱府的上鄙升趨窩勢利用傻技術寺分析蛙做交躬易技術暫分析擊師使某用一肢系列炊的技階巧，耐從而瘋達到目如下誘目標慚：判斷毯當前腔市場咬行為骨的特裳性——趨勢蠟，調整，抑恰或反貴轉識別臥適合逃持有愉新的暮多頭魄或空摟頭倉尾位的房誠關鍵肚市場價位；既呈饑現(xiàn)出樣良好撓的成許功概寫率，氧又有虛有效旋平衡飼盈利結潛力頭與止奸損的授風險壯回報驅比率對所潮有交離易倉獨位進縱行風險律管理，以凱后市語價格臉變動黃為借始鑒，攔根據(jù)蠻變化燃中的冠市場盒條件帥調整士持續(xù)化的技臥術策連略32利用役技術糊分析妨做交障易技術且分析互師交避易原渡則#1甘–趨勢迅是你票的朋腦友–寒20系10年2月在10徑50美元勒的價烤位上獅購買已黃金判斷烈當前俊市場看行為搶的特替性—市場喝上升搭趨勢掩明顯拼，有驕賣空您跡象望。識別價重要摟的市豈場水欄平–購進薄多頭恒倉位蟻的時取機應鑄該是披：上遙升趨鳴勢低愉谷附限近@10速40美元道，以遵及向釋上傾栽斜的械移動拆平均榨線@10倦24美元忙，因汽為隨逆后市著價將常恢復樣到原菊來的燥上升么趨勢守，從貨而帶察來大梯筆盈黑利。風險特管理–下止隆損單斗的位密置應嚴該比映趨勢雄線和輝移動支平均漁線稍狼低@10芝10美元胃，若模升勢傍結束盟會有漿小額態(tài)損失而。33利用陳技術房誠分析饑做交晶易技術營分析腫師交消易原四則#1滅–趨勢偷是你遍的朋鄭友–語20遲10年2月在10編50美元體的價表位上祝購買合黃金潛在席盈利接下床來的白高價承分別楊是11薪27美元換、11輔61美元騾、12天25美元若在10政50美元記價位白上購追入，爽則潛倘在盈蔬利分姥別是77美元雁、11芒1美元箭、17冤5美元潛在顛損失若在10趙10美元橫價位餡上實贊現(xiàn)止課損，鑄則損鋼失40美元風險使回報西比率77瓶/4界0（近2:直1）@1胸12找711咳1/揉40（近2.剪8葛:乓1）@1冒16剃117燭5/械40（近4.課4曬:蘭1）@1興22雖5不同師概率紀帶來件的結蛇果如果護就第斥一個暖價格翻目標觀而言墨，只美有50案%實現(xiàn)魄了上封述交信易，破那么鹿每次緒交易前平均嶄盈利傍仍為37美元通過克設置爬特定廳的入主市和軌離市追的價頑位，卻技術搏分析晶師就昏能利友用這旋些概毛率并萌從中都獲益紹。34利用茂技術裁分析火做交銜易35技術拍分析穗師交熊易原錯則#1外–趨勢牙是你肆的朋揉友–醬20革10年2月在10戰(zhàn)50美元問的價炮位上屠購買偶黃金20滅10年2月@網$1灰05仰0后來澆也出療現(xiàn)大饅量類強似的釀風險/回報吵技術廳性購期入信碌號，蹈頗具餃吸引做力技術既分析烈的限主制依賴墓準確泄及時犬的市剖場數(shù)庭據(jù)在交草易活嫁躍的故市場井最為儲有效有些窯技巧然較為尊主觀視覺犧技巧接和數(shù)角學技寧巧都雨會應度用到技術維分析映不是濤“水閑晶球睡”技術必分析咐師無抽法預企知未處來。陡他們鋸只是賢嘗試瞧在過制去的災價格臭和市尖場歷饑史基倘礎上耽，估斤計未還來發(fā)稅展的醋概率尋，從溝而判匯別入竹市離黨市的暫明智蘇時機窄。36謝謝ww日w.盾07弄62冠jr鮮.c員om河源雜外匯楚論壇蜜友情游提供附錄1：推費薦書季目Mu溪rp株hy冊,遣Jo蹄hn芽J砌.重-誤Te迎ch戶ni舉ca者l含An臟al表ys獻is很o行f腥th鉛e悲Fi暮na宮nc變ia酒l寫Ma唐rk矛et蓋s示-恭Ne樓w著Yo催rk升I隆ns鞏ti面tu挖te減o粗f大Fi句na格nc蜘e/尿Pr鵝en日ti誘ce散H隆al宮l槽19暑99du殿P垮le續(xù)ss竟is晃,抖Je賢re汁my滿-飼T串he須D夏ef辣in隔it投iv授e想Gu行id恥e賺to校P赤oi吉nt熟a柳nd閣F罷ig俯ur朵e侵-梅Ha姨rr果im雕an冤H鑰ou膀se普L坊td病.Pl謠um任me據(jù)r,閥T遙on蕩y們-恢Fo鐮re哄ca科st暴in埋g撲Fi澆na鼻nc穴ia宋l管Ma嬌rk毒et甘s芳-宗Ko失ga解n悔Pa裕ge些1群99爹8Pr排ec時ht狐er遣,宇Ro鐘be休rt閉-終R秤N溜E矩ll望io圖tt顧's災M階as得te記rw賓or厲ks瞧,六th淹e線De勸fi竿ni芽ti宣ve霸C擋ol恐le宜ct區(qū)io勤n雅-絲式Ne把w循Cl宋as揉si他c下Li肺br腰ar敢y,甚a停d崗iv券is柿io母n左of言E怨ll檢io宅tt拳W革av芝e覆In鮮te唐rn駐at創(chuàng)io拌na平l,嶄G盆ai喂ne爭sv餐il濾le集G簽A,辯U壁SA被1攝99弱4La脊mb寬er駐t,速C渡li鹿ve素-闖C址an痰dl動es扎ti好ck扎C撓ha偉rt莫s減-田Ha舉rr旱im板an探H系ou昏se提L冬td親.Li訓nt騙on瞧,品Da王vi雪d均-愈Cl某ou忠d弱Ch億ar崖ts蟲,像Tr捷ad奶in嚴g找Su勇cc荷es藝s弄wi被th縣t揮he詞I伙ch揉im耀ok達u確Te甩ch杠ni扎qu燒e主-盆Up角da怎ta馳,絹Pl恨cEl回li絞ot丘t,肢N贏ic爬ol落e腥-本Ic幅hi需mo蒙ku謝C垃ha皂rt黨s:倉A送n沒In肥tr寺od歡uc鴿ti糕on慎t宵o便Ic宜hi產mo辰ku蜓K柜in兵ko衰C歡lo臥ud劑s批-黑Ha鹽rr淺im飼an植H根ou退se柏L往td甩.Sp托er洽an返de取o,旱V煉ic戚to陪r岡-從Tr咱ad慚er暖V娃ic柄:楊Me悔th室od碑s錄of摧a漢W呆al尤l蜜St兇re覽et姨M豎as顧te發(fā)r駕-章Jo梯hn延W么il失ey借&始S彩on幅s透In梯c終19麥93Sc丟hw況ag翁er才,教Ja檔ck網D彎.艘-惰Ma膊rk犧et品W宗iz癢ar瞞ds霞-偶N耐ew片Y墊or豬k館In略st帳it銜ut訴e稍of蜂F顯in囑an鼠ce剛/S縱im誰on佩&乘S術ch蓋us伍te員r薯19固89Sc嫁hw松ag酬er駱,倆Ja厲ck丙D據(jù).夾-瘦Th斑e墨Ne疾w孤Ma桂rk鳳et利W情iz巨ar雖ds限-支H岡ar襲pe墓r-主Co送ll慕in鬼s剃19酒92附錄2：歷衛(wèi)史上圍的學雞術論題文1925SCHULTZ,Henry,

ForecastingSecurityPrices,

JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,Volume20,Issue150(Jun.,1925),244-249.1932KING,WillfordI.,

ForecastingMethodsSuccessfullyUsedSince1928,

JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,Volume27,Issue179(Sep.,1932),315-319.1933COWLES,Alfred3rd,

CanStockMarketForecastersForecast?,

Econometrica,Volume1,Issue3(Jul.,1933),309-324.

Cowles(1933)foundthatstockmarketforecasterscannotforecast.1934KING,WillfordI.,

TechnicalMethodsofForecastingStockPrices,

JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,Volume29,Issue187(Sep.,1934),323-325.1952GORDON,R.A.,

WesleyMitchellandtheStudyofBusinessCycles,

JournalofBusinessoftheUniversityofChicago,Volume25,Issue2(Apr.,1952),101-107.1955ROOS,CharlesF.,

SurveyofEconomicForecastingTechniques:ASurveyArticle,

Econometrica,Volume23,Issue4(Oct.,1955),363-395.1959ROBERTS,HarryV.,

Stock-Market"Patterns"andFinancialAnalysis:MethodologicalSuggestions,

JournalofFinance,Volume14,Issue1(Mar.,1959),1-10.

Roberts(1959)suggeststhat,"Thereiseveryreasontobelieve,however,thatthismethosoflookingatthetapewillfacilitateallthattakesplaceafterward.“1963WEINTRAUB,RobertE.,

OnSpeculativePricesandRandomWalksADenial

JournalofFinance,Volume18,Issue1(Mar.,1963),59-66.1963ZARNOWITZ,Victor,

OntheDatingofBusinessCycles,

JournalofBusiness,Volume36,Issue2(Apr.,1963),179-199.1964ALEXANDER,SidneyS.,

PriceMovementsinSpeculativeMarkets:TrendsorRandomWalks,1964.

Alexander(1964)concludeswith,"Thefindingssurveyedinthispapercanbesummarizedbythestatementthatinspeculativemarketspricechangesappeartofollowarandomwalkover

time,butamove,onceinitiated,tendstopersist.Inparticular,ifthestockmarketshasmovedupxpercentitislikelytomoveupmorethanxpercentfurtherbeforeitmovesdownbyxpercent.“1965ATKINSON,SueN.,

FinancialFlowsinRecentBusinessCycles,

JournalofFinance,Volume20,Issue1(Mar.,1965),14-35.1965FAMA,EugeneF.,

TheBehaviorofStock-MarketPrices,

JournalofBusiness,Volume38,Issue1(Jan.,1965),34-105.

Fama(1965)concludesthat,"chartreading,thoughperhapsaninterestingpastime,isofnorealvaluetothestockmarketinvestor.“1966FAMA,EugeneF.andMarshallE.BLUME,

FilterRulesandStock-MarketTrading,

JournalofBusiness,Volume39,Issue1,Part2:SupplementonSecurityPricing(Jan.,1966),226-241.1967LEVY,RobertA.,

RelativeStrengthasaCriterionforInvestmentSelection,

JournalofFinance,Volume22,Issue4(Dec.,1967),595-610.

Levy(1967)concludeswith,"Althoughitappearsthatsuperiorprofitscanbeachievedbyinvestinginsecuritieswhichhistoricallyhavebeenrelativelystronginpricemovement,therandomwalkhypothesisisnottherebyrefuted.Totheextentthatthesuperiorprofitsareattributabletotheincurrenceofextraordinaryrisk.“1968HOWREY,E.Philip,

ASpectrumAnalysisoftheLong-SwingHypothesis,

InternationalEconomicReview,Volume9,Issue2(Jun.,1968),228-252.1968JAMES,F.E.,Jr.,

MonthlyMovingAverages--AnEffectiveInvestmentTool?,

JournalofFinancialandQuantitativeAnalysis,Volume3,Issue3,SpecialIssue:RandomWalkHypothesis(Sep.,1968),315-326.1969MELNIK,ArieandAlanKRAUS,

Short-RunInterestRateCyclesintheU.S.:1954-1967,

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