rb-2030年adas及自動駕駛市場發(fā)展趨勢-

Webinar|November24,2021

ADASandautonomousdrivingmarkettrendsto2030

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx1

Source:RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx2

Wearelookingforwardtoourdiscussiontoday

Dr.Wolfgang

Bernhart

SeniorPartner

Stuttgart

Email:wolfgang.bernhart@

Mobile:+491607447421

Manuel

Yoon

Principal

Frankfurt

Email:manuel.yoon@

Mobile:+491607446174

Source:RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx3

WhentalkingaboutADASandAD,allvehicletypescanbeequippedwiththeaccordingtechnologyandaddresscustomer-specificusecases

Regional&long-haulbus

Masstransportandpeoplemover,

potentiallypartofpublictransport

Robotaxis(citycenter&ruralarea)

Vehiclesmayberegularcarsorpods,inurbancitycentersorruralareas

Privateautonomouscars

Privately-ownedcarswithADfunctionalityasadditionalequipment

Movingpeople

Curb-sideroaddeliveryofsmallpackages/products

Deliveryrobots&drones

24h/7operationoftruckswhichdelivergoodsaimingfordock-to-dockusecase

Autonomouslong-haultrucks

Transportersforpackagedistributionusedtodeliverpackagestoendcustomer

LCVs/last-mileroad

Movinggoods

A.ADASdevelopment2020-2025

Source:Deskresearch,RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx5

Legislation

>AEBcar-to-car>Reversingdetection>Lanekeeping>Intelligentspeedassists>AEBcar-to-pedestrian>AEBcar-to-cyclist

>Advanceddriver

distractionwarning

>…

Legislationcombinedwithsafetyratingsaremainuptakebesidescustomerpullforconvenience

Overviewofglobalsafetylegislationandratingsforpassengercars

ADASsystemspenetration

driversofADASsystems

Safetyratings

>AEB/AESpedestrian,cyclist

>AEBJAcar-to-car,

PTW

>Lanesupport

systemPTW

>AEBhead-on

>Drivermonitoring

>V2X

>…

EUNCAPsetsaspecificroadmapfortestingofsafetyuntil2025–MostAEBrequirementscanonlybefulfilledwithafrontcamera

EUNCAProadmap2018-2025

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2018

Roadmap2020

AEBVRUcyclist

Far-sideprotection

Mobileprogressivedeformablebarrier

Roadmap2025–Safetyrating

Drivermonitoring

AEBVRUpedestrian–Back-over

AEB–Junction&Crossing

AEB–Head-on

Automaticemergencysteering

V2X

Whiplash/Rear-endcrashprotection

Revisedsubsystemforpedestrian&cyclist

Rescue,extricationandsafety

Childpresencedetection

Roadmap2025–AD

GradingofADfunctions

Communicationonlybasedonfirstideas

Proposaltoreleaseupdatesoutof

phasewithoverallrating

>NewAEB

features

requirehigher

performanceof

systemsand

mayonlybe

achievedwitha

frontcamera

and/orfusion

ofcameraand

radar

>InitialNCAP

2022-2024

timetablehas

beendelayed

byoneyearto

2023-2025

StartProtocolreleaseImplementation

Source:Xilinx,RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx6

Source:SAEInt.,J3016;fka;RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx7

>Advancedcruisecontrol(adaptivecruisecontrolwithlanechangeassistinparallel)

>Cruisecontrol(adaptivecruisecontrolwithlanekeepassistinparallel)

>Automaticemer-gencybraking

>Adaptivecruise

control

>Lanekeepassist

>Blindspotdetector>Lanedeparture

warning

Usecase

>Fullyautonomous

Regulationclear–Driverobligation

Legal

Currentfocusofcommercialization(Compliance+NCAPrating)→Reasonablecost

Niche,2025+

Market

Forthenextyears,L2/L2+featuresarebecomingmostimportantforADAScommercializationasL3legislationisdelayedandcostsarehigher

Definitionoflevelsofautonomy

AD

ADAS

De-emphasisofL3infavor

ofL2+expected

L3.Conditionalautomation

L2+.Combined

L2.Partialautomation

L1.Driverassistance

partialautom.

L0.Warning

information

>Highwaypilotwithautomaticlanechanges(nohumaninter-actionfromexittoexitandfullmonitoringofenvironment)

Consumervehicles

L5.Fullautomation

z..z..z

L4.High

automation

>Fullyautomateddrivinginsomesituationswithoutneedforhumanasfallback(chauffeurmode)

Robotaxi+Consumervehicles

Legislationdelayed

Mobilitycases→Highercostsacceptable

Source:RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx8

106

2%

Inthenextfiveyears,itisexpectedthatbothL2/L2+marketpenetrationwillincreasewhereasnoautonomy/L0arelikelytoshrink

Marketpenetrationratesperlevelofautonomy,light-dutyvehicles[mofvehicles,%]

+1.6%

5%1%

97

89

8%

5%24%

19%

34%

29%

46%

44%

29%

25%

11%

15%

2025

2030

2019

ADASL4ADASL3ADASL2+/++ADASL2ADASL1ADASL0NoADAS

Source:RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx9

Overviewofautomotivesensorsinvehicle

Cornerradar

Front

camera

Cornerradar

LIDAR

Front

radar

ADASDCU

Surround

viewcamera

Parkingcamera

Surround

viewcamera

Cornerradar

Ultrasonic

Cornerradar

ADAS/ADfeaturesrequirearangeofsensorsofwhichespeciallycamerasandradarswillseeastrongvolumeincreaseinthecomingyears

Illustrative

Nightvision

Driver

monitoring

B.Medium-termADASdevelopment2025-2030

Source:RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx11

>Smartsensorswith

independentECUsandisolatedfunctionality

>HigherpracticalityforlowerlevelsofADASandvolume/budget

models

ADASDCU

SoCs

Frontcamera(satellite)

Post-2025,ADASE/EarchitectureswillbecomemorecentralizedenablingdrivingandparkingfeaturesfromacentralADASDCU

Decentralizedvs.centralizedADASDCUarchitectures

Decentralizedarchitecture(today)

Network

ParkingcamerasECU

Frontcamera

(smart)

USSECU

SoC

2025:c.70%ofnewvehiclesales

UltrasonicsensorRadarParkingcamera

Illustrative

CentralizedarchitecturewithADASDCU(future)

>SatellitesensorswithtransmissionofsensordatatocentralizedADASDCU,whichcomputescentrallyfordrivingand

parking

>Bestsuitedtohigherlevelsofautonomywithmorecomplexfunctionalities

2025:c.30%ofnewvehiclesales

Source:Deskresearch;SAE;RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx12

like"liability

SinceL3regulationisdelayed/unclear,industryfocusshiftstowardsadvancedL2+/++systemswithdriverliability

RationalefortheintroductionofL2+

Background/

motivation

>L3requiresOEMstobeliableforthesystemevenifthedriverisrequiredtorapidlytakeover

>L2+solvesthe

issuesofunclear/

delayedL3

regulationas

drivershavetoact

asfallback-ready

users

Features

Liability

ACC+

…

Level2

Temporaryhandsoff

TJA

Level2+/++

Level3

Eyesoffpossible,but

controlatsystemrequest

driverhastoresume

Temporaryhandsoff

"L3-like"functionality

HWA

…

A.lanechange

HWP

…

AES

OEMisliable

Driverisresponsible

"L2

-

Driverisresponsible

L2+/++systemsoffer"L3-like"functionality,butasinL2systemsthedriverisliable,nottheOEMasinL3However,aclearstandardorindustry-agreeddefinitionofL2+/++doesnotexist

Source:Desktopresearch;RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx13

Ford,GMandTeslahavestartedtoselltheirhands-offADASsolutionsassubscriptionmodels

SelectedOEMADASOTAofferings

Availability

Sensors

ODD

Pricing

"BlueCruise"

2021FordF-150&MustangMach-EthatareequippedwithCo-Pilot360

Frontcamera,radars,DMS

Hands-freeon100,000milesofapprovedhighwaysinNorthAmerica

>USD1,595(F-150)to3,200(Mach-E)upfront(dep.ontrim)

>Thereof,USD600forthefirstthreeyearsofservicefortheBlueCruisesoftware

>Afterthat,continueduseofthetechnologywillrequireasubscription

"SuperCruise"

Launchedwith2018CadillacCT6,nowalso2021sCT4,CT5,Escalade

Frontcamera,radars,DMS,

ultrasonicsensors

Hands-freeon200,000milesofapprovedhighwaysinNorthAmerica

>USD~2,500upfrontforHW(dependingonmodel/trim)

>Afterthree-yearfreetrialperiod,subscriptionwillcostUSD25permonth(standalonebasis)

>Alternatively,itcanbeaddedtocertainOnStarplansorbundlesforUSD15permonth

"Autopilot/FSD"

APv7launched2015,FSDv9launchedH2/2021–Allmodels

8cameras(360°),noradar,DMS

Anymajorhighway(FSDcurrentlyallowslimiteduseoncitystreetsincertainsituations)

>USD10,000forhardwareandlifetime

FSDsoftwareupdates

>Introductionofsubscriptionmodel~200USDpermonth

Source:Electrek;RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx14

Withmorehands-offscenariosinL2+/++systems,theimportanceofdrivermonitoringsystemsincreases

GMandTesladrivermonitoringsystems

TeslaAutopilotlosestoGMSuperCruiseduetolackofdrivermonitoringinindustry-widetest

electrek.co(October28,2020)

Teslastartsusingin-carcamera

forAutopilotdrivermonitoring

TheV(May27,2021)

C.Long-termADAS/ADdevelopment2030+

Inthefuture,zonalarchitecturesleadtoconsolidationandcommoditizationofhardwareby2030,OEMsexpectedtomovewithdifferentspeed

E/Earchitectureroadmap

Distributed:Established

Zonalinvolume~2030+

Domain-centralized

involume~2025+

SingleSWplatform,fullHWabstraction

>Bundlingoffunctionsintosafety-criticalandnon-safety-critical

partitions

Centralvehiclecomputer(s)

>Redundantcentralvehiclecomputerforsafety-criticaltasks>2-4(geographic)zonesnon-safety-criticaltasks,

Domain-independent

>FullconsolidationandcommoditizationofSoCbasedcomputinghardwarestartingin2026atvolumein2030,reducingTier-1valueshare

geographiczonecontrollers>Cartreatedlikeadatacenterwithcompletehardwareabstraction

GatewayDCUECUCentralcomputerZonalcomputerSensors/Actuator

Source:Huawei,RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx

16

Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2020;MortonSaltCompanyRecords;AmericanAutomobileAssociation(AAA)20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx17

Combiningnewmobilityconceptswithautomateddriving,robocabscouldprovideacheapandconvenientalternativetoowningacar

Costpermileofapersonallyownedvehicle2020[USD]

1.70

0.70

0.70

0.70

0.25

187119341950201620251)

>Adjustedfor

inflation,thecostto

ownandoperatea

personalcarhas

notchangedsince

theModelTrolled

offthefirst

assemblyline

>ARKestimates

that,atscale,

autonomoustaxis

willcostconsumers

USD0.25permile,

spurring

widespread

adoption

1)Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon

Note:ARKhadestimatedpreviouslythatanautonomoustaxicouldpriceatUSD0.35permile.WehaverefinedourestimatesandbelievethataoutonomoustaxiscouldbeevencheapteratonlyUSD0.25permile

Source:Deskresearch;RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx18

Global

China

Trucks

ADplayershavelaunchedfirstrobotaxiservicesandtargetmidofthedecade

Autonomousvehicleannouncements

201920202021202220232024

autonomyby

Selection–Notexhaustive

20252026

2022:RoblaunchinI

otaxiservicesrael,France

2025:Consuautonomy

mer-grade

20lau

20:Driverlessse

nchedininPho

rvice

enix

2021:Trips

FirstPermitforwithPassengers

Autonomous

202

1:"FSDBetav9

"(L2+)

2020:Revealof

prototype

2021:RobolaunchinB

taxiservice

eijing

2023:fleetof

3muserswitha3,000robotaxis

2019:Rideprogramla

-sharing

unchinUS

2020:AutoFreightNet

nomous

worklaunch

2024:L4autrucks

tonomous

2021:Supeautonomou

rvisedL4

strucks

2024:L4autrucks

tonomous

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx

France

GovernmentwithrighttoadaptrulesofhighwaycodetoAVdevelopment

Russia

TestingofAVspostponedto2021,conceptforroadsafetywithAVsapprovedbygovernmentinMarch'20

UK

AVandEVlegislationenactedforthreeyearperiodinJul'18

USA

NHTSA2)releasednewfederalguidelinesforADS3)inSept'20

19

SignificantdifferencesbetweencountrieswithregardstolegalframeforAVcommercialization–USA,UK,GermanyandSingaporemostadvanced

ApprovalprocessforL4&L5(Jan2021)1)

Germany

Allowslevel4

autonomousdrivingonpublicroadsfordefinedusecases3)

Japan

Aimstoallowlevel4autonomous

drivingat40areasby2025

China

Nationalstandardsfor"AutomotiveDrivingAutomationClassification"implementedonJan1,2021

Step1

Highestlimitationfortypeapproval:Initialdiscussionsongoing

Step2

Basicregulatoryscenefortypeapprovalset

Step3

Regulationforconcretetypeapprovalprocessinprogress

Step5

Nolimitationfortypeapproval

Step4

Regulationforconcrete

typeapprovalprocessin

decisionphase

1)GermanyStatusJul20212)NationalHighwayandTransportationSafetyAdministration3)AutomatedDrivingSystems

Source:RolandBergerAutomotiveDisruptionRadar

Singapore

National2020budgetincludedSGD

6mtosupportAVtestbeds

Self-drivingvehiclesrequireanestimatedcomputingpower1)of

level5:2.000-4.000TOPS;level4:300–1.000TOPS

Continuoussensorresolutionincreasesleadtoasteadyincreaseinnecessarycomputing

power->Requirementsareevolving

CurrentL2+advanceddriverassistancefunctionsuseacomputingpowerofapprox.10-30

TOPS

LeadingSemcos–suchasNVIDIA,IntelandQualcomm–haveannouncedproductswith

sufficientcomputingpowerforlevel4autonomy

Computingpowerconsumptionremainsaverysignificantchallenge–Announcedlevel4boardsuseapprox.1kWofelectricalpower.StartupsandselectedOEMSsworkonICswithsignificantlybetterenergyconsumption

Indicatorrating

Computinghardwareenablinglevel4autonomyisannounced–Powerconsumptionremainsaverysignificantchallenge

Autonomousvehicle–Computingpower:Currentstatus

Technology

NoactivityFeasibilityprovenDevelopmentroad-mapsinplaceRoadmap-milestoneachievedCommercializationtowardsdeflectionpointDeflectionpointarrived

1)SemiconductorsthatarespecificallydevelopedforautonomousdrivingwillrequirelesscomputingpowerandachievehigherperformanceperWatt

Source:Deskresearch,Expertinterviews,RolandBerger20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx20

India

UAE

KSA

ChinaSingaporeThailandItalyIndonesiaSouthKoreaIsraelBrazilSpain

USARussiaFranceNorwayCanadaGermanyJapanSwedenUKBelgiumNetherlands

GLOBAL

1%

1%

59%ofpeoplethinkLevel4/5vehiclesshouldbeontheroadsby2030globally–India,ME,China,SGParethehighestAVbelievers

Whendoyoubelievewewillhavelevel4/5autonomousvehicles,iefullyautonomousvehicles

withoutdrivers,commerciallyoperational(notfortesting)ontheroads?Before2030

17%

34%

30%

8%

7%

4%

14%

34%

32%

11%

8%

15%

28%

33%

12%

9%

3%

4%

35%

36%

15%

9%

5%

28%

35%

14%

13%

5%

11%

25%

31%

13%

15%

5%

5%

24%

38%

11%

14%

8%

11%

23%

31%

13%

17%

5%

4%

20%

39%

15%

16%

6%

5%

22%

35%

17%

17%

4%

5%

18%

37%

18%

17%

5%

3%

18%

36%

17%

19%

7%

7%

19%

30%

14%

16%

14%

3%

19%

32%

15%

22%

9%

5%

15%

32%

13%

15%

20%

7%

18%

27%

15%

16%

17%

4%

15%

30%

16%

21%

14%

4%

14%

31%

16%

22%

13%

6%

10%

33%

10%

21%

20%

3%

11%

30%

18%

20%

18%

3%

14%

27%

17%

21%

18%

3%

12%

24%

18%

23%

20%

3%

11%

25%

19%

19%

23%

6%

20%

32%

15%

17%

10%

2022

2025

2030

2035

2040

Never

Source:RBonlinesurveyJuly2021:23,691participants-Participantsbycountry:Belgium(1,008);Brazil(1,010);Canada(1,020);China(1,014);France(1,014);Germany(1,005);India(1,003);Indonesia(1,016);Israel(1,381);Italy(1,015);

Japan(1,018);Netherlands(1,011);Norway(1,053);Russia(1,005);SaudiArabia(1,008);Singapore(1,018);SouthKorea(1,012);Spain(1,012);Sweden(1,017);Thailand(1,025);UAE(1,013)20;1K1(112,0_)B;U_b(e1x,0_)AS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx21

Source:RBAutomotiveDisruptionRadaronlinesurveys

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx22

55%ofpeoplegloballyarereadytouserobotaxis,butthereisahighvarianceacrosscountries

Autonomoususerssurvey

Wouldyouuseamobilityservicebasedonafullyautonomousrobotaxi(autonomousdrivingtaxiswithoutadriverinthevehicle)?

No

Yes

13%

20%

21%

32%

33%

36%

37%

42%

46%

52%

54%

54%

55%

55%

55%

56%

58%

59%

87%

80%

79%

68%

67%

64%

63%

58%

54%

48%

46%

46%

45%

45%

45%

44%

42%

41%

ChinaIndiaUAESouthSingaporeRussiaSpainItalySaudiSwedenFranceNether-GermanyJapanCanadaBelgiumUKUSA

KoreaArabialands

55%

?

D.RBAutomotive

DisruptionRadar(ADR)

Source:RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx24

TheAutomotivedisruptionradaristheestablishedandonlytoolinthemarketmeasuringthechangeintheAutomotiveindustry

04/2017–ADR#109/2017–ADR#202/2018–ADR#309/2018–ADR#403/2019–ADR#509/2019–ADR#6

10

23

26

>23,000

issueslaunched

countriesnowinscope

indicatorsmeasured

Respondent

JustreleasedinNov2021-ADR#10

04/2020-ADR#7

05/2021–ADR#912/2020–ADR#8

Wemeasurethechangeintheautomotiveindustry

Source:RolandBerger

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx25

Industry

1EVpreference

activity

Customerinterest

MobilitybehaviorEV/PHEVsales

Customercuriosity

Typeapprovalprocess

4

Infrastructure

26indicators

Testroads–Autonomousvehicle

Multimodalmobility

Vehicle-2-vehiclecommunication

EV/PHEVcharginginfrastructure

The"AutomotiveDisruptionRadar"isbasedonapermanentscreeningof26indicatorsalongfivedimensions

Mainindicatorsinthe"AutomotiveDisruptionRadar"

Mobilityconceptpreferences

Autonomousve