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Module5
Acultureofdebt(page47)
EconomistPerhapsthegreatestlegacyoftheFederalReserveChairmanAlanGreenspanisthewayhetransformedpeople’sattitudetocreditanddebt.DuringhistermofofficenotonlythenationaldebtofAmerica,butalsopersonaldebt,increasedsubstantially.
SincetheGreatDepressionofthe1930s,peopleinAmericahavebeennaturallyreluctanttoborrowmoney.Butforthisgeneration,intheUSandincreasinglyglobally,debthasbecomerespectable.Fromanearlyage,youngpeopletakeoutloanstopaytheirwaythroughcollegeandborrowingagainstequityinrealestateisnowatrecordlevels.Re-mortgagingyourhomewasunheardofgenerationsago:asecondmortgagewasanindicationofahouseholdintrouble.Buttodayitisroutine.
Allthisispossiblebecausecreditiseasyandinterestratesarelow.Banksareencouragedtolend,andoftendosoirresponsibly.Insomestateit’spossibletogeta100%mortgage-inotherwordswithnodown-payment-equivalenttofourtimesacouple,scombinedannualsalary.Themarketisconstantlycomingupwithnewfinancialproductsandnewwaysofextendingcredittoordinarypeople.GeneralMotors,whoseautomotivebusinessindecline,nowsellshomeequityloansthroughasubsidiary:it'stheonlypartofthecompanythathasbeenconsistentlyprofitableinrecentyears.
Thereasonforthisboominmoneylendingisclear-tofundconsumerspending.Aslongaspeoplearespending,economicgrowthcontinues.Inothermoreconservativeborrowingcultures,likeGermany,economicgrowthhasslowedbecauseintimesofuncertaintypeopletendtosavetheirmoney,ratherthanborrowingandspendingtomakethemselvesfeelbetter.
Sodoestheaccumulatingdebtmatter?Somesaythataslongasassetvaluesrisefasterthandebt,there'snoproblem.In2005Americansweretwelvetrilliondollarsindebt,buttheirpersonalassetsstoodat64trilliondollars.Othersarguethatwearesittingonatime-bomb.
Assetvalueswillnotcontinuetoriseindefinitelyandwhentheycrash,millionsofpeoplewillbeplungedintonegativeequity.Liabilitiesremainthesamebutassetscangoupanddowninvalue.Thiswasthecasewithstockmarketvalues,whichsawsharpfallsaround2000.Crisiswasavertedonlybecauseinvestorsmovetheirmoneyintorealestate.
FormillionsofAmericansthisonlyconfirmedthecultureAlanGreenspanhadbeenpromoting-debtisgood.Andifheturnsouttobewrong-well,weallhadfuninthemeantime.
Discussingcosts(page52)
CA=CostaccountantGM=Generalmanager
CALook,we’vegottodosomething.Doingnothingisnotanoption.Ourmarginswilljustgetsqueezedmoreandmore.
GMOK.Whatdoyousuggest?
CApersonally,I,drecommendcuttingthewagebill-eitherbylayingsomepeopleofforbyfreezingsalaries.
GMNeitherofwhicharegoingtobeverypopularoptions.
CANo,butthealternativesareprobablyworse:reducingmaterialcostswilldefinitelyhaveanimpactonproductqualityandcuttingbackonadvertisingexpenditureisonlyashort-termsolution-itwillhurtinthelongrun.
GMNo,Iseethat.Whataboutadministrativecostsorotheroverheads?Insteadofcuttingstaff,wecouldtryanddosomethingaboutgettingourenergybillsdownforexample.
CAI,vealreadydoneasmuchasIcaninthoseareas.Ihavethoughtaboutthisalotandforme,theonlyrealsolutionistotacklelabourcosts.Itmaybepainful,buttheadvantageofitwouldbethat,oncedone,wecouldgetbacktoconcentratingonselling.
GMOK,Ihearwhatyou,resaying,butIthinkitmightcreatemoreproblemsthanyouthink.I,mgoingtogoawayandthinkaboutit…seeifthereisanacceptablewayofdoingit.
Examspotlight,Keyskill(page54)
Weareaccusedfrequentlyofdoingnothingabouttheageingpopulationandtheconsequentholeonpensionfunds.Butyouhavetounderstandthat,atthemomentatanyrate,therearenopopularsolutionstothisproblem.Eitherweraisetheretirementageorweincreasetaxesonworkingpeople.Neitheroftheseisavotewinner.Ithinkalotofusingovernmentarehopingthatifwejustholdonabit,thensoonerorlateranothersolutionpresentitself.
Examspotlight,Exampractice(page55)
Idon,tbelieveinthecapitalmarkets.Forastarttheyareunpredictableandforanotherthing,noteveryonethepossibilitytotakesuchriskswiththeirmoney.Ihavealwaysbeenoftheviewthatyoupaytaxesthroughyourworkinglifeinordertoenjoycertainbenefitfromthestateandcertainprotectionagainstdifficulttimes.Forexample,incaseofunemploymentorsicknessorforyourretirement,forthatmatter.
SowhenIretire,Iwillliveonwhatthegovernmentisduetogiveme.IfIcan,taffordcruisesintheCaribbean,thenthat,stoobad.
Iamveryluckytohaveworkedinthecivilservice,whichhasitsownpensionscheme.Mysalaryhasneverbeenasgoodasitmighthavebeenintheprivatesector,butyouacceptthatwhenyouworkforapublicservice.Whatyoudogetisjobsecurity,longerholidays,goodmedicalinsuranceandanexcellentpension.Mypensioniscalculatedasapercentageofmyfinalsalary.That,sveryrateintheprivatesector.Usuallyprivatecompaniestakeyouraveragesalaryoveraperiodof,say,twentyyears.SoallinallIexpecttobeverycomfortablewhenIretire,evenifIhaven,thadthatmuchdisposableincomeduringmyworkinglife.
Peoplethinkthatasacompanydirector,I,mboundtohaveallsortsofprivilegedpensionbenefitsandcompanyschemesgoingon-somespecialexecutiveplan.Butit'snotthecase.WehaveacompanyschemeforallouremployeesbutIdon,tactuallyparticipateinit.InsteadI,veputmostofmymoneyinalong-termsavingsaccount,thatgivesagoodrateofreturnifyoukeepitinforlongenough.ItseemsbizarreIknow,butImakefarmorethanIneedtospendandIguessI,mnaturallycautionswithmymoney.
Thereisasaying-Idon,tknowwhoby-thatyoushould‘investinland,because
theydon,tmakeitanymore!,Ithinkthat’sgoodadvice.Around2004therestartedtobealotofstoriesinthemediaaboutcompanypensionsandprivatepensionsnotdeliveringthebenefitstheyhadpromised,mainlybecausetheywerelinkedtostockmarketinvestments.AtthatpointIdecidedtowithdrawmymoneyfrommyownprivatepensionandputitintoproperty.IfigurethatifIboughtasmallofficebuilding,thenbythetimeIreachedretirementage,Iwouldhavepaidoffthemortgageandcouldliveofftherent…sothat,swhatIdid.
Ireleasedquiteearlyonthatmystatepensionwasn,tgoingtobesufficient,soItookoutaprivateonewhenIwasabout30.Itworkslikeamanagedinvestmentfund-amixtureofblue-chipstock-soIdon,treallyhavemuchsayinhowthemoneyisinvested.
Unfortunately,likealotofprivatepensionschemes,ithasn,treallyperformedaspredicted.Ithinktheprojectedgrowthratewasbetween8and12%anditgrownatabout4.5%,whichisn'tmuchaboveinflation.Therearesignsthatthestockmarketsaredoingalittlebetternow,soI,mhopefulthatinthelongrunIwillhavereasonablefundsformyretirement.WouldIadviseanyonetodothesame...withhindsight,probablynot.
Module6
6.1Acontracttosupply(page59)
BarbaraParagon.CanIhelpyou?
PaulHello,isthatBarbara?
Barbarayes,speaking.
PaulHi,Barbara,thisisPualfromA1FlooringinLondon.I,mjustcallingtodiscusstheextensionofourcontractfornextyear.Isthisagoodmomentforyou?
BarbaraYes,asgoodasany,Iguess.LetmejustgetapenandpapersoIcanmakesomenotes.OK,sowherehavewegotto?
PaulWell,firstthegoodnews.TheKliklaminateflooringhasbeengoingreallywellhere-you,llprobablyhavenoticedthatfromtheorderbookinthelastsixmonthsorso.Customersreallyloveit:thefeedbackwe,vehadhasbeenexcellent.
BarbaraThat,sgreat.
PaulItisgood.Ihavetosay,I,mnotsosurprised-it,sanexcellentproduct,veryhighqualityandthepricereflectsthatofcourse.Whichbringsmeontomynextpoint.NowI,mnotaskingforbettercommission-weareOKonthat—butwhatwouldreallyhelpismoreseasonaldiscountingfromyourend.WhatImeanisreductionsthatwecouldpassstraightontoourcustomers.Generally,werunsalesinJanuary,springandlatesummerandatthemomentParagon'sproductsaretheonlyonesthatdon'tfeature.Isupposeyoucouldsaythatgivesthemacertainexclusivityintheeyesofthecustomer,butatthesametime...
BarbaraIcanseethelogicofwhatyou,resaying,andI,venodoubtitwouldhelpsales,butwhatyoumustunderstandisthatit,sverydifficultforustohaveapolicywithyouthat,sdifferentfromallourcustomers.Letmethink…whatIcouldsuggestisthatwetryandfeedyoumorediscountedstockwhenwearecomingtotheendofaparticularproductline.Icanspeaktothebossaboutthat.
PaulWell,couldyoualsomentiontohimtheprincipleofseasonaldiscount,becauseIthinkitwouldgenerateevenmoreinterestintheproducts.
BarbaraAllright,Iwill…butI,m
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