概率統(tǒng)計(jì)分布表

精品文檔精心整理精品文檔可編輯的精品文檔標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正態(tài)表x0.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.00.50000.50400.50800.51200.51600.51990.52390.52790.53190.53590.10.53980.54380.54780.55170.55570.55960.56360.56750.57140.57530.20.57930.58320.58710.59100.59480.59870.60260.60640.61030.61410.30.61790.62170.62550.62930.63310.63680.64060.64430.64800.65170.40.65540.65910.66280.66640.67000.67360.67720.68080.68440.68790.50.69150.69500.69850.70190.70540.70880.71230.71570.71900.72240.60.72570.72910.73240.73570.73890.74220.74540.74860.75170.75490.70.75800.76110.76420.76730.77040.77340.77640.77940.78230.78520.80.78810.79100.79390.79670.79950.80230.80510.80780.81060.81330.90.81590.81860.82120.82380.82640.82890.83150.83400.83650.83891.00.84130.84380.84610.84850.85080.85310.85540.85770.85990.86211.10.86430.86650.86860.87080.87290.87490.87700.87900.88100.88301.20.88490.88690.88880.89070.89250.89440.89620.89800.89970.90151.30.90320.90490.90660.90820.90990.91150.91310.91470.91620.91771.40.91920.92070.92220.92360.92510.92650.92790.92920.93060.93191.50.93320.93450.93570.93700.93820.93940.94060.94180.94290.94411.60.94520.94630.94740.94840.94950.95050.95150.95250.95350.95451.70.95540.95640.95730.95820.95910.95990.96080.96160.96250.96331.80.96410.96490.96560.96640.96710.96780.96860.96930.96990.97061.90.97130.97190.97260.97320.97380.97440.97500.97560.97610.97672.00.97720.97780.97830.97880.97930.97980.98030.98080.98120.98172.10.98210.98260.98300.98340.98380.98420.98460.98500.98540.98572.20.98610.98640.98680.98710.98750.98780.98810.98840.98870.98902.30.98930.98960.98980.99010.99040.99060.99090.99110.99130.99162.40.99180.99200.99220.99250.99270.99290.99310.99320.99340.99362.50.99380.99400.99410.99430.99450.99460.99480.99490.99510.99522.60.99530.99550.99560.99570.99590.99600.99610.99620.99630.99642.70.99650.99660.99670.99680.99690.99700.99710.99720.99730.99742.80.99740.99750.99760.99770.99770.99780.99790.99790.99800.99812.90.99810.99820.99820.99830.99840.99840.99850.99850.99860.99863.00.99870.99870.99870.99880.99880.99890.99890.99890.99900.99903.10.99900.99910.99910.99910.99920.99920.99920.99920.99930.99933.20.99930.99930.99940.99940.99940.99940.99940.99950.99950.99953.30.99950.99950.99950.99960.99960.99960.99960.99960.99960.99973.40.99970.99970.99970.99970.99970.99970.99970.99970.99970.99983.50.99980.99980.99980.99980.99980.99980.99980.99980.99980.99983.60.99980.99980.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99993.70.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99993.80.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99990.99993.91.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.0000

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.29011.66021.98402.36422.62592.87073.17373.39051200.67650.84461.04091.28861.65771.97992.35782.61742.85993.15953.3735F分布P=0.90n\m123567810152030139.8649.5053.5955.8357.2458.9159.4459.8661.2261.7462.2628.539.009.169.249.299.359.379.389.429.449.4635.545.465.395.345.315.275.255.245.205.185.1744.544.324.194.114.053.983.953.943.873.843.8254.063.783.623.523.453.373.343.323.243.213.1763.783.463.293.183.113.012.982.962.872.842.8073.593.263.072.962.882.782.752.722.632.592.5683.463.112.922.812.732.622.592.562.462.422.3893.363.012.812.692.612.512.472.442.342.302.25103.292.922.732.612.522.412.382.352.242.202.16113.232.862.662.542.452.342.302.272.172.122.08123.182.812.612.482.392.282.242.212.102.062.01133.142.762.562.432.352.232.202.162.052.011.96143.102.732.522.392.312.192.152.122.011.961.91153.072.702.492.362.272.162.122.091.971.921.87163.052.672.462.332.242.132.092.061.941.891.84173.032.642.442.312.222.102.062.031.911.861.81183.012.622.422.292.202.082.042.001.891.841.78192.992.612.402.272.182.062.021.981.861.811.76202.972.592.382.252.162.042.001.961.841.791.74212.962.572.362.232.142.021.981.951.831.781.72222.952.562.352.222.132.011.971.931.811.761.70242.932.542.332.192.101.981.941.911.781.731.67262.912.522.312.172.081.961.921.881.761.711.65282.892.502.292.162.061.941.901.871.741.691.63302.882.492.282.142.051.931.881.851.721.671.61P=0.99n\m123567810121416182014052.184999.505403.355624.585763.655928.365981.076022.476106.326142.676170.106191.536208.73298.5099.0099.1799.2599.3099.3699.3799.3999.4299.4399.4499.4499.45334.1230.8229.4628.7128.2427.6727.4927.3527.0526.9226.8326.7526.69421.2018.0016.6915.9815.5214.9814.8014.6614.3714.2514.1514.0814.02516.2613.2712.0611.3910.9710.4610.2910.169.899.779.689.619.55613.7510.929.789.158.758.268.107.987.727.607.527.457.40712.259.558.457.857.466.996.846.726.476.366.286.216.16811.268.657.597.016.636.186.035.915.675.565.485.415.36910.568.026.996.426.065.615.475.355.115.014.924.864.811010.047.566.555.995.645.205.064.944.714.604.524.464.41119.657.216.225.675.324.894.744.634.404.294.214.154.10129.336.935.955.415.064.644.504.394.164.053.973.913.86139.076.705.745.214.864.444.304.193.963.863.783.723.66148.866.515.565.044.694.284.144.033.803.703.623.563.51158.686.365.424.894.564.144.003.893.673.563.493.423.37168.536.235.294.774.444.033.893.783.553.453.373.313.26178.406.115.184.674.343.933.793.683.463.353.273.213.16188.296.015.094.584.253.843.713.603.373.273.193.133.08198.185.935.014.504.173.773.633.523.303.193.123.053.00208.105.854.944.434.103.703.563.463.233.133.052.992.94218.025.784.874.374.043.643.513.403.173.072.992.932.88227.955.724.824.313.993.593.453.353.123.022.942.882.83237.885.664.764.263.943.543.413.303.072.972.892.832.78247.825.614.724.223.903.503.363.263.032.932.852.792.74257.775.574.684.183.853.463.323.222.992.892.812.752.70267.725.534.644.143.823.423.293.182.962.862.782.722.66277.685.494.604.113.783.393.263.152.932.822.752.682.63287.645.454.574.073.753.363.233.122.902.792.722.652.60297.605.424.544.043.733.333.203.092.872.772.692.632.57307.565.394.514.023.703.303.173.072.842.742.662.602.55Excel公式1.正態(tài)分布函數(shù)Excel計(jì)算正態(tài)分布時(shí)，使用NORMDIST函數(shù)，其格式如下：NORMDIST（a，μ，σ，累積）其中，“累積”：若為TRUE，則輸出分布函數(shù)值，即P{X≤a}；若為FALSE，則為概率密度函數(shù)值．示例：已知X服從正態(tài)分布，μ＝600，σ＝100，求P{X≤500}．輸入公式NORMDIST(500,600,100,TRUE)得到的結(jié)果為0.158655，即P{X≤500}=0.158655．2、正態(tài)分布函數(shù)的反函數(shù)Excel計(jì)算正態(tài)分布函數(shù)的反函數(shù)使用NORMINV函數(shù)，格式如下：NORMINV（p，μ，σ），此公式計(jì)算a，使P{X≤a}=p3標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正態(tài)分布反函數(shù)=NORMSINV(0.975)3、t分布Excel計(jì)算t分布的值,采用TDIST函數(shù)，格式如下：TDIST（a，自由度，側(cè)數(shù)）其中，“側(cè)數(shù)”：指明分布為單側(cè)或雙側(cè)：若為1，為單側(cè)；此命令輸出P{T>a}若為2，為雙側(cè)．此命令輸出P{|T|>a}示例：設(shè)T服從自由度為24的t分布，求P(T>1.711)．已知t＝1.711，df=24，采用單側(cè)，則T分布的值：TDIST(1.711,24,1)得到0.05，即P(T>1.711)=0.05．4.t分布的反函數(shù)Excel使用TINV函數(shù)得到t分布的反函數(shù)，格式如下：TINV（α，自由度）輸出T分布的α/2分位點(diǎn)：t_α/2_(n)若求臨界值tα(n)，則使用公式＝TINV(2*α,n)5.返回F分布的函數(shù)是FDISTFDIST(x,degrees_freedom1,degrees_freedom2)函數(shù)FDIST的計(jì)算公式為FDIST=P(F>x)，5.F分布的反函數(shù)FINV(probability,deg_freedom1,deg_freedom2)已知probability=P(F>x)，求x精品文檔精心整理精品文檔可編輯的精品文檔第四章庫(kù)存控制4.1概述一.庫(kù)存和庫(kù)存分類庫(kù)存:處在儲(chǔ)存狀態(tài)的物資的數(shù)量庫(kù)存分類:1.生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)備(周轉(zhuǎn)儲(chǔ)備)2.商品儲(chǔ)備(流通儲(chǔ)備)(周轉(zhuǎn)儲(chǔ)備)3.國(guó)家儲(chǔ)備(安全儲(chǔ)備)二.為什么周轉(zhuǎn)倉(cāng)庫(kù)要進(jìn)行庫(kù)存控制？1.周轉(zhuǎn)儲(chǔ)備的二重性:一方面保障生產(chǎn)和流通的順利進(jìn)行；另一方面又閑置,延緩生產(chǎn),需要付出費(fèi)用。2.周轉(zhuǎn)儲(chǔ)備應(yīng)當(dāng)有一個(gè)合理的限度：太多了,不行：需要多的保管用具用料和人員，保管費(fèi)用增加；太少了,不行：會(huì)造成缺貨，產(chǎn)生缺貨費(fèi)用，也造成費(fèi)用增加。應(yīng)該不多不少,以能恰好保證生產(chǎn)和流通需要為限。3.合理庫(kù)存:包括儲(chǔ)備分布,儲(chǔ)備品種結(jié)構(gòu),儲(chǔ)備數(shù)量,儲(chǔ)備費(fèi)用合理。三.庫(kù)存過程概述：庫(kù)存過程可以分成：訂貨過程：從發(fā)出訂貨到訂貨成交為止。商流過程─┐庫(kù)存增加進(jìn)貨過程：從訂貨成交到貨物入庫(kù)為止。物流過程─┘保管過程：從貨物入庫(kù)到貨物出庫(kù)為止。物流過程庫(kù)存不變銷售出庫(kù)過程：從貨物點(diǎn)交到貨物出庫(kù)發(fā)運(yùn)止,商,物流過程庫(kù)存減少四.庫(kù)存控制的原理：為了控制庫(kù)存量，由庫(kù)存過程可知，可控制訂貨進(jìn)貨過程，也可控制銷售出庫(kù)過程。都可以達(dá)到目的。但是，控制銷售出庫(kù)過程，意味著限制用戶的需求，影響社會(huì)需求，不好。所以最好采用通過控制訂貨進(jìn)貨過程的辦法來(lái)控制庫(kù)存量。這樣，不但可主動(dòng)控制庫(kù)存量，而且不影響社會(huì)效益。因此，本章的思路，就是研究怎樣通過控制訂貨進(jìn)貨過程的辦法來(lái)控制庫(kù)存量。五.訂貨策略的含義：包括三個(gè)方面的內(nèi)容：１.什么時(shí)侯訂貨，即訂貨時(shí)機(jī)，或訂貨點(diǎn)。２.訂多少，即訂貨點(diǎn)。３.如何實(shí)施，即訂貨方法。六.庫(kù)存費(fèi)用：１.訂貨費(fèi)：含義：訂貨過程中發(fā)生的全部費(fèi)用。包括差旅費(fèi)，訂貨手續(xù)費(fèi)，通訊費(fèi)，招待費(fèi)以及訂貨人員有關(guān)費(fèi)用。特點(diǎn)：每一次訂貨中訂貨費(fèi)與訂貨量的多少無(wú)關(guān)。若干次訂貨的總訂貨費(fèi)與訂貨次數(shù)有關(guān)。公式：設(shè)一次訂貨費(fèi)為c0,且每次訂貨費(fèi)都相等,如在Ｔ期間內(nèi)共訂了ｎ次貨，每次訂貨量為Ｑｏ，Ｔ期間內(nèi)的總需求量(也即Ｔ期間內(nèi)的總訂貨量)為Ｄ，則Ｔ期間內(nèi)的總訂貨費(fèi)為：C0QC0Q0圖4-1可見，如Ｔ期間的總需求量Ｄ確定不變時(shí)，平均訂貨費(fèi)的大小與訂貨批量成反比。如圖4-1所示。２.保管費(fèi)：含義：保管程中發(fā)生的全部費(fèi)用。包括：入、出庫(kù)時(shí)的裝卸搬運(yùn)堆碼檢驗(yàn)費(fèi)用；保管用具用料費(fèi)用；倉(cāng)庫(kù)房租水電費(fèi)；保管人員有關(guān)費(fèi)用；保管過程中的貨損貨差；保管物資資金的銀行利息。特點(diǎn)：保管費(fèi)用與保管數(shù)量的多少和保管時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)短有關(guān)。設(shè)單位物資單位時(shí)間的保管費(fèi)為c1，平均庫(kù)存量為，則Ｔ期間的總保管費(fèi)C1為：C1Q0圖4-2C1Q0圖4-2而Ｔ期間內(nèi)的平均保管費(fèi)為：可見平均保管費(fèi)與訂貨批量成正比。如圖4-2所示：QQ圖4-3TQ0tR圖4-4TQ0Qp對(duì)于持時(shí)到貨的情況（圖4-4），設(shè)進(jìn)貨的速率為p、銷售的速率為R，訂貨批量為Q0，則所能達(dá)到的最高庫(kù)存量Qmax為：T期間的平均庫(kù)存量等于：所以T期間的平均保管費(fèi)等于：3.進(jìn)貨費(fèi)與購(gòu)買費(fèi)：含義：所謂進(jìn)貨費(fèi)，就是進(jìn)貨途中的全部費(fèi)用，即運(yùn)雜費(fèi)。包括：運(yùn)費(fèi)、包裝費(fèi)、裝卸費(fèi)、租賃費(fèi)、延時(shí)費(fèi)、貨損貨差等。購(gòu)買費(fèi)，即物資的原價(jià)。特點(diǎn)：進(jìn)貨費(fèi)與購(gòu)買費(fèi)都與訂貨批量無(wú)關(guān)，批量訂多訂少都不安影響其總進(jìn)貨費(fèi)和購(gòu)買費(fèi)。我們把這種與訂貨批量無(wú)關(guān)的費(fèi)用稱為固定費(fèi)用，而把那些與訂貨批量有關(guān)的費(fèi)用稱作可變費(fèi)用。因此，進(jìn)貨費(fèi)與購(gòu)買費(fèi)是固定費(fèi)用，而訂貨費(fèi)、保管費(fèi)、缺貨費(fèi)、補(bǔ)貨費(fèi)是可變費(fèi)用。設(shè)單位物資的進(jìn)貨費(fèi)為c3，單價(jià)為Ｋ，訂貨批量為Ｑ0，則總進(jìn)貨費(fèi)與購(gòu)買費(fèi)Ｃ3為：Ｃ3=（c3+Ｋ）Ｑ0如為簡(jiǎn)化起見，用Ｋ表示固定費(fèi)用，則Ｃ3可表示為：Ｃ3=（c3+Ｋ）Ｑ0≈ＫＱ0則平均固定費(fèi)用：4.總費(fèi)用：即各項(xiàng)費(fèi)用的總和。即：Ｃ＝Ｃo＋Ｃ1＋Ｃ3總平均費(fèi)用為：4.2經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量一.概述：1.什么叫經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量？所謂經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量，就是從經(jīng)濟(jì)的觀點(diǎn)出發(fā)在各種庫(kù)存情況下，考慮怎樣選擇訂貨批量，使得庫(kù)存總費(fèi)用最省最經(jīng)濟(jì)。把這個(gè)使得庫(kù)存總費(fèi)用最省最經(jīng)濟(jì)的訂貨批量，叫經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量。2.應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量公式的意義：1）可以使得縱費(fèi)用最??；2）可以達(dá)到庫(kù)存控制的目的。3.應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量公式的前提條件：1)公式適用于訂貨不受限制的情況。即什么時(shí)侯想訂貨就能訂到貨，想到哪里訂就能到那里訂。2)公式適用于單一品種的情況。3)公式不但適用于確定型，也適用于隨機(jī)型。二.瞬時(shí)到貨情況下的經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量：RQtTRQtT2TR圖4-5Q0由前節(jié)（4-9）式知：＝為求使最小的訂貨批量，令：即：＝Q0就是常說的經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量，特記為：并且可求得：分別稱作經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨周期和瞬時(shí)到貨的平均總變動(dòng)費(fèi)用。三.持時(shí)到貨情況下的經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量：Q0QtQ0Qt1TtRRpp圖4-6根據(jù)4-10式，其庫(kù)存平均總費(fèi)用：＝＋＋其中，因：pt1＝ＲＴ＝Ｑo所以，而＝ＫＲ所以，為求使的總費(fèi)用最小的訂貨周期Ｔ，令：得：即：說明：1.持時(shí)和瞬時(shí)的區(qū)別：；持時(shí)導(dǎo)致保管費(fèi)用減少，從而導(dǎo)致Q*增大、訂貨周期增長(zhǎng)而總平均可變費(fèi)用減少。2.持時(shí)的效果相當(dāng)于減少了保管費(fèi)用，這是因?yàn)檫呥M(jìn)貨邊銷售，有些貨物沒入庫(kù)就銷售掉了，使保管費(fèi)用減少了。極端的情況下，所有貨物都不入庫(kù)，直接從供應(yīng)地運(yùn)到用戶。皮包公司就是這么做的。3.持時(shí)因子當(dāng)p趨向無(wú)窮大，則就趨向于1，持時(shí)也就變成了瞬時(shí)，所以瞬時(shí)乃是持時(shí)的特殊情況。4.3隨機(jī)型庫(kù)存控制方法一.概述：１.隨機(jī)型：即庫(kù)存參數(shù)中，至少有一個(gè)是隨機(jī)變量的庫(kù)存模型。所謂隨機(jī)變量是其值是隨時(shí)間而隨機(jī)變化的，不能預(yù)先知道它在將來(lái)某一時(shí)刻確切的取值。２.主要的隨機(jī)型庫(kù)存參數(shù)有：1)需求速率Ｒ：?jiǎn)挝粫r(shí)間的需求量。2)訂貨前置期Ｔk：從發(fā)出訂貨到所訂貨物入庫(kù)為止的時(shí)間間隔。3)前置期需求量ＤL：訂貨前置期中的總需求量。4)訂貨點(diǎn)Qk的確定：訂貨點(diǎn)Qk是發(fā)出訂貨時(shí)的實(shí)際庫(kù)存量?？刂朴嗀淈c(diǎn)Qk的高低，可以控制庫(kù)存量。如Qk取得高，則所訂貨物到達(dá)入庫(kù)時(shí)，原來(lái)庫(kù)存物資還沒銷售完，從而庫(kù)存水平升高，保管費(fèi)用增加；如Qk太低，則所訂貨物到達(dá)入庫(kù)時(shí)，原來(lái)的庫(kù)存物資早已銷售一空，產(chǎn)生了缺貨，影響銷售利潤(rùn)和庫(kù)存滿足率。所以Qk是一個(gè)進(jìn)行庫(kù)存控制的決策變量。Qk的最佳值最好是恰好等于“DL”，即：Qk＝“DL”但“DL”是隨機(jī)變量，沒有確定值，所以為了確定Qk，需要用到隨機(jī)變量的知識(shí)來(lái)求解。一般，我們?nèi)k等于“DL”的平均值，再加上一個(gè)合適的保險(xiǎn)裕量Qs，即：Qk＝＋Qs其中：是平均前置期需求量，Qs稱為安全庫(kù)存量。5)安全庫(kù)存量Qs的求法：所謂安全庫(kù)存，是在庫(kù)存控制中為防止在訂貨前置期間內(nèi)銷售缺貨而設(shè)置的庫(kù)存量。是在平均前置期需求量上附加的一個(gè)保險(xiǎn)裕量。如果“DL”服從正態(tài)分布,即: