技術(shù)介紹教程

技術(shù)分析介紹亞當(dāng)·索拉博國際技術(shù)分析聯(lián)盟主席，CQS技術(shù)分析總監(jiān)中文翻譯由河源外匯論壇友情提供北京2011年9月6日內(nèi)容什么是技術(shù)分析技術(shù)分析的歷史技術(shù)分析對

基本面經(jīng)濟(jì)/金融分析技術(shù)分析研究的對象及其假設(shè)技術(shù)分析的類型（圖表、振蕩指標(biāo)、型態(tài)與分形）趨勢、反轉(zhuǎn)、周期運(yùn)用技術(shù)分析進(jìn)行交易與投資：關(guān)于概率以及出市入市的價(jià)位對技術(shù)分析之批判附錄——推薦閱讀資料及學(xué)術(shù)參考2什么是技術(shù)分析？“技術(shù)分析是指分析證券歷史價(jià)格從而預(yù)測未來價(jià)格走勢的過程?！笔袌鲱A(yù)測只建立在價(jià)格、時(shí)間、成交量、未平倉合約信息的基礎(chǔ)之上而忽略如盈利、現(xiàn)金流、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表等基本面數(shù)據(jù)3技術(shù)分析的歷史技術(shù)分析的起源可追溯到幾百年前

已知的最古老的技術(shù)分析方法由本間宗久（MunehisaHomma）所發(fā)明，并在18世紀(jì)早期應(yīng)用于大米市場

技術(shù)分析在美國的發(fā)展可追溯到查爾士·道（CharlesH.Dow）從1900年開始在華爾街日報(bào)發(fā)表的技術(shù)分析論文4技術(shù)分析的歷史從此以后，更多的技術(shù)分析工具得到了發(fā)展，而且越來越強(qiáng)調(diào)計(jì)算機(jī)輔助技術(shù)。5技術(shù)分析VS基本面經(jīng)濟(jì)/金融分析基本面分析利用宏觀和微觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)來預(yù)測國家、企業(yè)、個(gè)人的宏觀和微觀結(jié)果。

他們使用基本面數(shù)據(jù)來構(gòu)造未來現(xiàn)金流和投資回報(bào)的模型。技術(shù)分析則使用價(jià)格、時(shí)間、交易活動數(shù)據(jù)，來預(yù)測未來價(jià)格范圍和活動的概率。

我們使用技術(shù)數(shù)據(jù)來建立交易和投資策略。6技術(shù)分析的研究對象價(jià)格=任何交易活躍的證券、貨幣或大宗商品的價(jià)格歷史

時(shí)間=年度、月度、每周、每日、日間數(shù)據(jù)

交易數(shù)據(jù)=成交量以及未平倉合約7技術(shù)分析的假設(shè)市場價(jià)格反映了任何時(shí)刻的所有已知信息。市場價(jià)格會對額外的信息做出反應(yīng)。

市場參與者不斷變化的情緒和活動會留下一連串變化著的價(jià)格和市場活動的蹤跡，用技術(shù)分析為之建造模型，可預(yù)測未來的價(jià)格范圍和變動。8技術(shù)分析的類型

（圖表、振蕩指標(biāo)、型態(tài)與分形）重要價(jià)位（依重要程度排列）1）現(xiàn)價(jià)=當(dāng)前的交易價(jià)2）收市價(jià)=某一日（或其他時(shí)段）交易活動結(jié)束前最后一筆交易的成交價(jià)格3）開市價(jià)=某時(shí)段開始的價(jià)格4）最高價(jià)=該時(shí)段內(nèi)最高的成交價(jià)格；最低價(jià)=該時(shí)段內(nèi)最低的成交價(jià)格9收市明價(jià)、祝開市葡價(jià)、查最高貝價(jià)、旋最低蛋價(jià)收市亦價(jià)=一日赴（或搞其他售時(shí)段板）交冒易活侄動結(jié)矛束前嫌最后喂一筆從交易愧的成趕交價(jià)鋤格開市批價(jià)=某交夸易時(shí)權(quán)段開岡始的笑價(jià)格最高氣價(jià)=該時(shí)衡段內(nèi)省最高愁的成害交價(jià)箏格最低扎價(jià)=該時(shí)厚段內(nèi)烏最低宅的成哭交價(jià)棵格10最高脆價(jià)=叉2.宅5收市檢價(jià)=懶1.低8開市鋼價(jià)=怪2.齊2最低婦價(jià)=收1.備5在這弟個(gè)交倒易時(shí)賠段里忌，市鳥場開紹市價(jià)篩為2.突2，最收高價(jià)廉為2.獲5，最慶低價(jià)創(chuàng)為1.忽5，最掠后收名于1.肯8。技術(shù)畫分析奸師在遞為下態(tài)個(gè)交殼易時(shí)看段制廣定交戴易策半略時(shí)揭會考洪慮這叫些價(jià)車格水耕平。圖表造的類湯型線形踩圖柱狀啞圖K線圖OX圖市場概覽(又譯姜四度億空間)11線形鳥圖12線形嗓圖只邊使用呀收盤怪價(jià)的賤歷史尚記錄這類志型的謠圖包油含了毅有限忘但關(guān)濾鍵的糊信息就價(jià)艇格歷秩史而勞言，綠長期附數(shù)據(jù)昨在半薯對數(shù)訴刻度羊中有孔時(shí)候匹會更涌有用鄰。19果92年來購上海A股指笨數(shù)算術(shù)烈標(biāo)度19糖92年來組上海A股指減數(shù)半對今數(shù)標(biāo)蜂度支撐支撐=預(yù)期粱購買掌活動后集中跡的價(jià)縫格水?dāng)D平支撐踢水平施可在圖一系柱列技禁術(shù)指區(qū)標(biāo)基勾礎(chǔ)上餃識別進(jìn)出來在先拌前價(jià)六格最遲低位耽或者曾“突罰破”鏡的水趣平上卵常常跑能看以到支公撐現(xiàn)誕象13上海A股指怠數(shù)-2放00競8年8月-2賺01百1年6月橫向握支撐趨勢靈支撐阻力=預(yù)期宰出售揚(yáng)活動絡(luò)集中僻的價(jià)虧格水久平支撐秧水平棋可在資一系信列技簽術(shù)指觸標(biāo)基以礎(chǔ)上返識別見出來在先跑前價(jià)懂格最裙高位揪或者攤“突距破”喘的水丹平上雨常常酸能看耍到阻孕力現(xiàn)糾象阻力14上海A股指槐數(shù)-2擊00胞8年8月-2音01笑1年6月橫向溉阻力趨勢釣阻力柱狀醬圖柱狀嚼圖包病含開拉市價(jià)飼、最娃高價(jià)月、最蹲低價(jià)干、收定市價(jià)但的信戒息。柱狀汗圖展懂示了抖每個(gè)弄交易梳時(shí)段隊(duì)的價(jià)扯格范球圍和熔清晰轎度。15最高價(jià)=2.5收市價(jià)=1.8開市價(jià)=2.2最低價(jià)=1.520幫06年以曠來S&匯P5篇00指數(shù)算術(shù)蟻標(biāo)度K線圖16陰陽噸燭圖括包含條開市醋價(jià)、黑最高我價(jià)、旬最低楚價(jià)、巷收市敬價(jià)的類信息原。用不掃同的摔顏色疤標(biāo)識輪上升牧或下癢跌的刻交易帳日，棕從而菊強(qiáng)調(diào)峽每個(gè)殿市場姥時(shí)段狗的不唇同心林理。連續(xù)青幾個(gè)帖陰陽嶼燭的廁組合乞能有能效反喇映變沫化著鄰的市墨場心欠理17陰陽耐燭圖20攜11年2月以呀來歐睬元兌匠美元錘頭——牛市愿形態(tài)頂部需三星——熊市洞形態(tài)前進(jìn)酷白色俘三兵——牛市瞧形態(tài)18OX圖點(diǎn)數(shù)籌圖忽怕略時(shí)念間因渠素，當(dāng)只記糾錄交錘易價(jià)鳴格水焰平的糕實(shí)質(zhì)郊變化萬。點(diǎn)數(shù)印圖為妙技術(shù)豆分析樂師提章供了智忽略樸時(shí)間浴因素穴而分迫析市字場行嗚為的而另一浪種途嫂徑。20活06年6月以臟來黃禁金走艱勢點(diǎn)數(shù)飛圖凸寧顯支億撐和佳阻力畜水平19市場概覽市場豬輪廓介圖以嫂時(shí)間燙分配買的形罵式記羊錄成鹽交價(jià)撤格，矩一個(gè)撲交易肆?xí)r段曠里不慘同分宇段的福每個(gè)畫成交播價(jià)格景用不廊同的榴字母采來表抵示。市場概覽市場概覽圖對苗于在季證券西交易拔所交發(fā)易的擦證券葵尤為飛有效勢，每藏個(gè)成興交價(jià)剛格的采成交夏量都莊可以覽得到蓮利用淺。20成交評量分丈析成交蕉量是邪某一蘆特定背交易短時(shí)段顧或價(jià)喘格水挽平上喜成交紹的證吳券價(jià)薯值。2120閣08年6月以觸來的Go掌og紗le價(jià)格移未達(dá)岸到預(yù)題期高幼位，典人們贏紛紛怎拋售鉆，導(dǎo)連致成花交量勝出現(xiàn)墾峰值價(jià)格幣在$3過50左右幅時(shí)，泛買入論者涌茫入市拘場，分導(dǎo)致舞成交藝量增虜大未平禽倉量伴分析未平鋸倉量刃是指煉某特詳定市型場在慨某交遵易時(shí)林段結(jié)像束時(shí)浮，多囑方所階持有啞或空招方所才拋空也的契互約口繡數(shù)。2220患11年2月以陣來的蚊可可蔽期貨下跌咽趨勢曬加劇革，未龍平倉眨量增飯加，販從而移強(qiáng)化失熊市同預(yù)期市場轎參與霸者獲悠利，條未平傅倉量布減少趨勢芳分析市場齡上存國在趨種勢。吃順應(yīng)識趨勢月而持悶有的卻倉位疊比逆韻勢而仇為更劈燕有可詞能獲塞得盈遵利。技術(shù)奮分析池師試籠圖使研用幾聾何和碑?dāng)?shù)學(xué)泛技術(shù)壟來識美別市梢場的頂趨勢他及其范圍。2320削02年-2貓00爪9年S&孟P周50匙0指數(shù)20蝕08年8月持究續(xù)已喉久的毯上漲才趨勢湯出現(xiàn)麗轉(zhuǎn)折馳，標(biāo)孔志著生大跌疏的開街始出現(xiàn)容上升絨趨勢伙前有飼好幾東個(gè)買少入機(jī)組會趨勢翅分析技術(shù)伐分析挺師可牛使用尼移動腎平均想數(shù)來競使數(shù)飛據(jù)平疤滑化音，從庫而識祝別趨醉勢和疫趨勢倒變動彩。2420懂02年-2刺00廢9年S&金P村50住0指數(shù)20閣08年8月長寇期上客升趨迎勢戛困然而哥止，曠慢速倡快速脆移動助平均引線的等交叉膊預(yù)示旁著跌必勢到樓來從20棄0天移利動平候均價(jià)搜格可蠢看出渣上升奔趨勢雖，在災(zāi)上升黑趨勢糠出現(xiàn)饞前有饅很多配買入咸機(jī)會反轉(zhuǎn)司分析每個(gè)攜趨勢唱結(jié)束紫時(shí)會新發(fā)生火反轉(zhuǎn)引，市燈場先根前的僻方向聯(lián)動搖芹不定唯，趨文勢的膛變化皮日益些明顯煉。技術(shù)抹分析錦師試襪圖識禽別常閘見的拿反轉(zhuǎn)蔥形態(tài)假以及聽反轉(zhuǎn)菠市場歉行為苗的信如號，竟從而物察覺依市場閑方向纏改變摟的預(yù)欠警。25牛勢筆錘子斥形態(tài)壁和雙他重谷嬸底標(biāo)怠志著20盟00年黃店金市喜場熊裹勢的捉反轉(zhuǎn)博，當(dāng)潤時(shí)價(jià)鉗格為25皮5美元20糟00年7月至20胖01年6月的憑黃金形態(tài)刷分析隨著限時(shí)間似的推值移，辱市場瓜往往砌會呈流現(xiàn)常飛見的戒行為亭形態(tài)順。技術(shù)敘分析傷師試雹圖識嗚別常斥見的蝕價(jià)格糞形態(tài)炊，從做而制死定利炕用這賀些價(jià)社格形鍛態(tài)的絮交易團(tuán)策略蘇。26無法芒突破持先前描更高生價(jià)格——熊勢海形態(tài)旗形語是“嶼持續(xù)孤形態(tài)蒙”，物預(yù)示強(qiáng)著市陸場重視拾先謹(jǐn)前趨塊勢前駁會有銜一段沸“整勸固”季形態(tài)樹。牛勢董“倒友置頭碑肩形奮態(tài)”旨預(yù)示動先前炕熊市爐的結(jié)哨束成功撫“突膠破”被標(biāo)志王著上拌升趨刻勢的溜持續(xù)分形畏分析隨著迅時(shí)間裁的推瘦移，趕趨勢虜通常解會呈們現(xiàn)出妥常見啟的價(jià)暈格形娃態(tài)和茫分形呼行為蠅。技術(shù)描分析海師試梳圖識弊別價(jià)惑格分吸形，畏利用侮某特觀定趨厭勢或回調(diào)的演朱變來制定棍一些講交易除系統(tǒng)扇。27分形子分析19扒96年至20捎09年標(biāo)壞普50礙0的艾蹈略特場波浪春圖28周期漏分析所有暴市場伸、多攝重時(shí)之間段剛都會夸呈現(xiàn)后出周銹期性偷。技術(shù)送分析釣師試兼圖識封別市遍場周球期，繭從而殃制定號一些沿交易辭系統(tǒng)搜來利瞧用每溫個(gè)周倆期以框及該習(xí)周期池與其獎(jiǎng)他時(shí)廈間周基期之罷間可瞇能存完在的垃諧波李。29振蕩抓指標(biāo)振蕩筍指標(biāo)說把歷腫史上窩的價(jià)凍格信粗息放羅進(jìn)數(shù)麗學(xué)模害型中狐，使億數(shù)據(jù)需平滑零化，克同時(shí)揚(yáng)突出暴動能口和市成場特穿征的庸改變牛。30相對魚強(qiáng)弱垃指數(shù)餡從70男%以上合跌到70志%以下=熊市址信號相對殊強(qiáng)弱懲指數(shù)湊從30微%以下鐮上升按至30紅%以上=牛市納信號從20秘10年7月至20漏11年6月日諸元兌魄美元振蕩舌指標(biāo)有很勝多不公同的踩振蕩焰指標(biāo)遮研究復(fù)（不訂下一儀百種?。┟恳唤婪N研蔽究都牛試圖系突出踏價(jià)格競和市既場行礙為的狠不同乘方面有些娃更適廟合趨查勢市暫場，退有些引更適壯合橫孔向市檔場有些地振蕩氣指標(biāo)飄甚至景尋求男比較繡趨勢扛市場蹤蝶和橫折向市駕場，赤比如歐動向緒指數(shù)稠（DM童I）3120識10年7月至20亡11年7月黃蛾金的鴿動向勒指數(shù)者圖表動向璃指數(shù)必預(yù)示倡著不蘿斷加痰強(qiáng)的姿上升粉趨勢動向悶指數(shù)潔一開眉始預(yù)瘋示減械弱的港上升喬趨勢折，而藏后轉(zhuǎn)儲為較拔弱的宜下降尼趨勢動向華指數(shù)奔預(yù)示工著不櫻斷加老強(qiáng)的應(yīng)上升菊趨勢不斷挪減弱架的上植升趨冒勢利用釣技術(shù)脊分析要做交俘易技術(shù)姨分析劑師使枕用一黑系列益的技懷巧，苦從而皺達(dá)到逆如下?lián)u目標(biāo)蜓：判斷梢當(dāng)前障市場禁行為做的特到性——趨勢急，調(diào)整，抑閑或反醋轉(zhuǎn)識別磨適合頸持有夠新的嬸多頭榮或空成頭倉鐮位的遼關(guān)鍵辭市場價(jià)位；既呈佩現(xiàn)出露良好下的成飾功概星率，闊又有箏有效哈平衡助盈利條潛力欺與止胡損的謎風(fēng)險(xiǎn)使回報(bào)身比率對所原有交磚易倉犁位進(jìn)雷行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)污管理，以緣瑞后市栗價(jià)格巨變動待為借饞鑒，倒根據(jù)款變化的中的撥市場網(wǎng)條件幟調(diào)整戒持續(xù)攝的技爛術(shù)策銀略32利用盼技術(shù)蕉分析撤做交屑易技術(shù)韻分析返師交蝕易原個(gè)則#1默–趨勢囑是你咸的朋石友–勁20慕10年2月在10珍50美元任的價(jià)繡位上奔購買鍛黃金判斷骨當(dāng)前臥市場梁行為業(yè)的特魯性—市場半上升舌趨勢裹明顯戒，有丘賣空虧跡象升。識別旗重要宿的市方場水?dāng)嚻建C購進(jìn)糠多頭確倉位鉤的時(shí)形機(jī)應(yīng)抹該是然：上湊升趨葉勢低紡谷附熱近@10第40美元獵，以封及向芹上傾仍斜的黎移動學(xué)平均乳線@10局24美元矮，因賣為隨存后市余價(jià)將也恢復(fù)短到原州來的毛上升鼓趨勢王，從值而帶悅來大治筆盈擔(dān)利。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)同管理–下止愁損單女的位否置應(yīng)清該比暫趨勢榆線和驚移動愉平均括線稍盟低@10批10美元惱，若獨(dú)升勢忘結(jié)束拐會有附小額薄損失胞。33利用款技術(shù)傅分析穗做交午易技術(shù)螺分析艦師交替易原嶼則#1響–趨勢稈是你首的朋組友–提20辟10年2月在10歪50美元已的價(jià)表位上遞購買悉黃金潛在掃盈利接下受來的俊高價(jià)岔分別營是11黨27美元用、11毒61美元患、12閣25美元若在10喝50美元戒價(jià)位柱上購唯入，運(yùn)則潛呼在盈氣利分鹽別是77美元擊、11匠1美元撕、17系5美元潛在緞?chuàng)p失若在10喚10美元柳價(jià)位友上實(shí)予現(xiàn)止排損，奮則損柱失40美元風(fēng)險(xiǎn)楚回報(bào)棍比率77亭/4貍0（近2:估1）@1仗12竿711煙1/民40（近2.道8殲:注1）@1砍16槳117雀5/惕40（近4.蠟4膀:哥1）@1彼22萬5不同襯概率賢帶來雹的結(jié)誤果如果守就第啊一個(gè)助價(jià)格墨目標(biāo)慌而言京，只貼有50鎮(zhèn)%實(shí)現(xiàn)芝了上酬述交逢易，娛那么窯每次巡壽交易好平均鑼盈利饑仍為37美元通過席設(shè)置驕特定蛙的入伙市和遙離市繡的價(jià)然位，稈技術(shù)寇分析源師就李能利逝用這逮些概吉率并鴉從中駁獲益公。34利用吳技術(shù)獻(xiàn)分析躍做交迎易35技術(shù)命分析涼師交雀易原勵(lì)則#1過–趨勢肚是你禍的朋排友–縫20盼10年2月在10般50美元氏的價(jià)程位上亮購買牌黃金20鋤10年2月@猜$1臘05恒0后來花也出碧現(xiàn)大偏量類肝似的河風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/回報(bào)士技術(shù)計(jì)性購協(xié)入信許號，伍頗具串吸引趣力技術(shù)弓分析呢的限捆制依賴奴準(zhǔn)確伐及時(shí)漢的市局場數(shù)態(tài)據(jù)在交繭易活城躍的己市場綱最為上有效有些信技巧劣較為亂主觀視覺想技巧病和數(shù)項(xiàng)學(xué)技據(jù)巧都仗會應(yīng)奔用到技術(shù)喪分析踏不是途“水衰晶球?！奔夹g(shù)畢分析賤師無墊法預(yù)梯知未察來。避他們轟只是杜嘗試擠在過策去的榴價(jià)格召和市越場歷揮史基生礎(chǔ)上慚，估脹計(jì)未尿來發(fā)潮展的刮概率嗓，從場而判蜂別入剛市離掠市的垃明智寨時(shí)機(jī)縮慧。36謝謝河源啟外匯垮論壇朗友情刊提供附錄1：推灶薦書橫目Mu逮rp樹hy每,暗Jo費(fèi)hn躍J度.李-風(fēng)Te附ch爬ni執(zhí)ca蒜l卻An余al墨ys肚is丈o程f骨th意e姨Fi繞na鍛nc謀ia匯l旺Ma縮慧rk倆et泥s貞-女Ne嫌w庸Yo黑rk韻I且ns補(bǔ)ti出tu突te溝o絹f束Fi兼na訴nc憑e/穴Pr瓦en餅ti復(fù)ce下H形al憐l虧19殺99du蘇P屠le勁ss姥is傅,憑Je夸re喂my杠-兄T炭he況D鴿ef始in梅it護(hù)iv也e距Gu溝id周e徑to倍P威oi讓nt俯a償nd億F倉ig紹ur壩e年-逝Ha麥rr幟im利an劉H填ou參se最L喜td思.Pl浩um段me救r,泄T備on搬y扔-權(quán)Fo瀉re晌ca最st朋in鐘g年Fi裙na寶nc述ia玻l聾Ma可rk意et性s戴-濃Ko蔑ga父n柄Pa束ge必1宇99擾8Pr芹ec榴ht炒er黨,徒Ro中be準(zhǔn)rt喜-鼓R鉤N菠E詞ll救io帽tt逼's父M蕉as海te映rw框or憶ks射,旬th煎e(cuò)疼De財(cái)fi優(yōu)ni蝴ti臘ve買C距ol攔le池ct技io優(yōu)n盆-泊Ne衡w岸Cl進(jìn)as暖si兔c戀Li墓br晚ar洲y,抱a衫d哭iv煎is縫io異n僵of創(chuàng)E同ll啊io混tt敘W鎮(zhèn)av使e照In繡te趣rn涉at敬io和na出l,鑰G粉ai棄ne座sv融il證le妥G啄A,朗U辮SA紐奉1軍99匯4La叔mb全er沒t,果C才li浪ve奔-舉C愉an竹dl訪es吃ti敞ck屠C粒ha席rt喊s膚-該Ha聞rr壟im捧an究H李ou此se貨L門td譽(yù).Li功nt開on稀,繞Da崇vi勿d夠-琴Cl位ou濟(jì)d娃Ch禮ar堪ts躬,嬸Tr興ad旨in籌g沒Su蓬cc必es奇s汗wi吸th煉t喬he測I擺ch鐮im餅ok墾u攜Te引ch虛ni竊qu呼e的-冶Up雞da妥ta毫,欄Pl姿cEl鵲li控ot煮t,誕N橋ic饒ol介e腎-火Ic脆hi莫mo餐ku脂C炸ha去rt滿s:心A跑n撲In狡tr寶od顯uc墳ti睜on翼t牲o燒Ic且hi伶mo路ku閃K站in童ko岔C岔lo稿ud勾s巖-忘Ha榮rr才im惜an到H蠅ou耐se無L挨td鑒.Sp煮er變an鹽de貓o,劇V伴ic多to裝r柳-妄Tr禾ad鍋er慣V琴ic杰:咽Me嬌th參od征s租of賴a績W茂al木l哄St乞re蔬et煎M梨as瓜te梢r似-態(tài)Jo妥hn疾W喇il毀ey鵲&伶S候on拖s乒In界c乞19侵93Sc恭hw琴ag建er間,姿Ja胡ck愛D候.界-疊Ma保rk脖et粘W木iz弓ar絕ds堤-挎N掙ew致Y恭or鐮k頂In降st俘it鑄ut財(cái)e樂of捐F巷in嗚an袍ce負(fù)/S蛙im嫩on品&捷S伶ch揀us貢te光r泛19故89Sc特hw旱ag妹er撿,館Ja歐ck為D醫(yī).鳳-舌Th匹e咬Ne刮w幻玉Ma浙rk公et典W存iz并ar滾ds余-扎H膽ar母pe義r-繩Co慈ll央in盤s俘19訪92附錄2：歷阿史上跳的學(xué)性術(shù)論御文1925SCHULTZ,Henry,

ForecastingSecurityPrices,

JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,Volume20,Issue150(Jun.,1925),244-249.1932KING,WillfordI.,

ForecastingMethodsSuccessfullyUsedSince1928,

JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,Volume27,Issue179(Sep.,1932),315-319.1933COWLES,Alfred3rd,

CanStockMarketForecastersForecast?,

Econometrica,Volume1,Issue3(Jul.,1933),309-324.

Cowles(1933)foundthatstockmarketforecasterscannotforecast.1934KING,WillfordI.,

TechnicalMethodsofForecastingStockPrices,

JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,Volume29,Issue187(Sep.,1934),323-325.1952GORDON,R.A.,

WesleyMitchellandtheStudyofBusinessCycles,

JournalofBusinessoftheUniversityofChicago,Volume25,Issue2(Apr.,1952),101-107.1955ROOS,CharlesF.,

SurveyofEconomicForecastingTechniques:ASurveyArticle,

Econometrica,Volume23,Issue4(Oct.,1955),363-395.1959ROBERTS,HarryV.,

Stock-Market"Patterns"andFinancialAnalysis:MethodologicalSuggestions,

JournalofFinance,Volume14,Issue1(Mar.,1959),1-10.

Roberts(1959)suggeststhat,"Thereiseveryreasontobelieve,however,thatthismethosoflookingatthetapewillfacilitateallthattakesplaceafterward.“1963WEINTRAUB,RobertE.,

OnSpeculativePricesandRandomWalksADenial

JournalofFinance,Volume18,Issue1(Mar.,1963),59-66.1963ZARNOWITZ,Victor,

OntheDatingofBusinessCycles,

JournalofBusiness,Volume36,Issue2(Apr.,1963),179-199.1964ALEXANDER,SidneyS.,

PriceMovementsinSpeculativeMarkets:TrendsorRandomWalks,1964.

Alexander(1964)concludeswith,"Thefindingssurveyedinthispapercanbesummarizedbythestatementthatinspeculativemarketspricechangesappeartofollowarandomwalkover

time,butamove,onceinitiated,tendstopersist.Inparticular,ifthestockmarketshasmovedupxpercentitislikelytomoveupmorethanxpercentfurtherbeforeitmovesdownbyxpercent.“1965ATKINSON,SueN.,

FinancialFlowsinRecentBusinessCycles,

JournalofFinance,Volume20,Issue1(Mar.,1965),14-35.1965FAMA,EugeneF.,

TheBehaviorofStock-MarketPrices,

JournalofBusiness,Volume38,Issue1(Jan.,1965),34-105.

Fama(1965)concludesthat,"chartreading,thoughperhapsaninterestingpastime,isofnorealvaluetothestockmarketinvestor.“1966FAMA,EugeneF.andMarshallE.BLUME,

FilterRulesandStock-MarketTrading,

JournalofBusiness,Volume39,Issue1,Part2:SupplementonSecurityPricing(Jan.,1966),226-241.1967LEVY,RobertA.,

RelativeStrengthasaCriterionforInvestmentSelection,

JournalofFinance,Volume22,Issue4(Dec.,1967),595-610.

Levy(1967)concludeswith,"Althoughitappearsthatsuperiorprofitscanbeachievedbyinvestinginsecuritieswhichhistoricallyhavebeenrelativelystronginpricemovement,therandomwalkhypothesisisnottherebyrefuted.Totheextentthatthesuperiorprofitsareattributabletotheincurrenceofextraordinaryrisk.“1968HOWREY,E.Philip,

ASpectrumAnalysisoftheLong-SwingHypothesis,

InternationalEconomicReview,Volume9,Issue2(Jun.,1968),228-252.1968JAMES,F.E.,Jr.,

MonthlyMovingAverages--AnEffectiveInvestmentTool?,

JournalofFinancialandQuantitativeAnalysis,Volume3,Issue3,SpecialIssue:RandomWalkHypothesis(Sep.,1968),315-326.1969MELNIK,ArieandAlanKRAUS,

Short-RunInterestRateCyclesintheU.S.:1954-1967,

JournalofFinancialQuantitativeAnalysis,Volume4,Issue3(Sep.,1969),291-299.附錄3：近勇期的羊?qū)W術(shù)夫論文ADLAND,R.andS.STRANDENES,2006.Marketefficiencyinthebulkfreightmarketrevisited.MaritimePolicy&Management.AFOLABI,M.O.andO.OLUDE,2007.PredictingStockPricesUsingaHybridKohonenSelfOrganizingMap(SOM).ProceedingsoftheFortiethAnnualHawaiiInternationalATMEH,M.A.andI.M.DOBBS,2006.TechnicalanalysisandthestochasticpropertiesoftheJordanianstockmarketindexreturn.StudiesinEconomicsandFinance.BABA,N.,2006.UtilizationofNNsforImprovingtheTraditionalTechnicalAnalysisintheFinancialMarkets.LECTURENOTESINCOMPUTERSCIENCE.BAKER,A.,2006.Americanpowerandthedollar:Theconstraintsoftechnicalauthorityanddeclaratorypolicyinthe….NewPoliticalEconomy.BASK,M.andJ.FIDRMUC,2006.FundamentalsandTechnicalTrading:BehaviorofExchangeRatesintheCEECs.BankofFinlanddiscussionpaper.BEHNCKE,H.,2006.SpectralanalysisoffourthorderdifferentialoperatorsII.Math.Nachr.BELFORD,P.,2006.Candlestickstockanalysiswithgeneticalgorithms.Proceedingsofthe8thannualconference.CASSENS,J.andA.KOFOD-PETERSEN,2006.UsingActivityTheorytoModelContextAwareness:aQualitativeCaseStudy.Proceedingsofthe19thInternationalFloridaArtificialCHANG,Y.H.,M.METGHALCHIandC.C.CHAN,2006.Technicaltradingstrategiesandcross-nationalinformationlinkage:thecaseofTaiwanstockmarket.AppliedFinancialEconomics.CHEN,A.andP.BICKEL,2006.Efficientindependentcomponentanalysis.AnnalsofStatistics.CHEUNG,Y.W.,2006.AnEmpiricalModelofDailyHighsandLows.CHIARELLA,C.,X.Z.HEandC.HOMMES,2006.Adynamicanalysisofmovingaveragerulesstar,open.JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl.COIERA,E.,2006.Puttingthetechnicalbackintosocio-technicalsystemsresearch.IntJMedInform.CREAMER,G.andY.FREUND,2006.AutomatedTradingwithBoostingandExpertWeighting.DALE,R.T.andW.E.TYNER,2006.ECONOMICANDTECHNICALANALYSISOFETHANOLDRYMILLING:MODELDESCRIPTION.StaffPaper(06-04),Dept.ofAg.Econ.,PurdueUniversity.DE,D.,etal.,2006.Geneticalgorithmstooptimisethetimetomakestockmarketinvestment.Proceedingsofthe8thannualconferenceonGeneticandDE,P.andM.GRIMALDI,2006.Exchangeratepuzzles:Ataleofswitchingattractorsstar,open.EuropeanEconomicReview.DUEKER,M.andC.J.NEELY,2007.CanMarkovswitchingmodelspredictexcessforeignexchangereturns?.Journalofbankingandfinance.DUTTA,G.,etal.,2006.ArtificialNeuralNetworkModelsforForecastingStockPriceIndexintheBombayStockExchange.JournalofEmergingMarketFinance.GARCIA-ALMANZA,A.L.andE.P.K.TSANG,2006.TheRepositoryMethodforChanceDiscoveryinFinancialForecasting.GARCIA-ALMANZA,A.L.andE.P.K.TSANG,2006.ForecastingstockpricesusingGeneticProgrammingandChanceDiscovery.12thInternationalConferenceOnComputingInEconomicsAnd..GILBERT,T.,2006.Mixedmethodsandmixedmethodologies:Thepractical,thetechnicalandthepolitical.JournalofResearchinNursing.INCE,H.,2007.Shorttermforecastingwithsupportvectormachinesandapplicationtostockpriceprediction.InternationalJournalofGeneralSystems.INCE,H.andT.B.TRAFALIS,2007.Kernelprincipalcomponentanalysisandsupportvectormachinesforstockpriceprediction.IIETransactions.KOZHAN,R.andM.SALMON,2006.OnthePredictabilityofTickbyTickExchangeRatesUsingtheStructureoftheOrderBook.LIEN,K.,2006.DayTradingtheCurrencyMarket:TechnicalandFundamentalStrategiestoProfitfromMarketSwings.LIU,J.N.K.andR.W.M.KWONG,2007.Automaticextractionandidentificationofchartpatternstowardsfinancialforecast.AppliedSoftComputing.MANZAN,S.andF.WESTERHOFF,2006.HeterogeneousExpectations,ExchangeRateDynamicsandPredictability.JEconBehavOrgan(inpress).MENKHOFF,L.andM.P.TAYLOR,2007.TheObstinatePassionofForeignExchangeProfessionals:TechnicalAnalysis.JournalofEconomicLiterature,forthcoming.MORRIS,G.L.,2006.CandlestickChartingExplained..附錄3：近到期的煙學(xué)術(shù)怨論文NEELY,C.J.,etal.,2006.TheAdaptiveMarketsHypothesisEvidencefromtheForeignExchangeMarket..PAN,H.,D.SORNETTEandK.KORTANEK,2006.Intelligentfinance?anemergingdirection.QuantitativeFinance.

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THUNIS,P.,etal.,2007.Analysisofmodelresponsestoemission-reductionscenarioswithintheCityDeltaproject.AtmosphericEnvironment.TILAKARATNE,C.D.,etal.,2006.QuantificationofintermarketinfluenceontheAustralianAllOrdinaryIndexbasedonoptimization….Proceedingsofthe13thBiennialComputationalTechniques…ZIVOT,E.,J.WANGandI.NETLIBRARY,2006.ModelingFinancialTimeSerieswithS-plus..Co告nt諸ac梢t丘In莊fo頭rm脆at心io碰n42CQ害S宋(S咬wi礎(chǔ)tz偷er殊la畜nd勉)賽S.棚A.3窯Qu嫂ai畝d共u悲Mo突nt將-B嗓la擇ncCa含se倉P欲os鏡ta詢le雜1答39守312味11繪G謝en遵ev榮a輝1Sw際it縮慧ze搏rl幸an鬧dTe緣瑞l:屋+4替1偶22伙5鵲96摩1漲80送0Fa氣x:藏+劈燕41弊2昨2勤59算6搭18跳01CQ熟S甲(U水K)鵝L嚼LPCQ亦S倡I(xiàn)n塑ve陪st仗me繭nt黨M丙an洪ag唉em醒en贈t慢Li煤mi姐te稻dCQ絨S故As拌se票t蓮Ma澡na弊ge臺me聰nt籮L愉im雁it價(jià)ed33牙G產(chǎn)ro慚sv躺en親or緒P背la恩ceLo假nd刷on皇S巴W1羞X騾7H孟YEn榜gl條an億dTe優(yōu)l:毅+4判4對0累20化7頸20酷1必69訴00Fa憐x:谷+袍44真0佳2慨0劈燕72貼01鍋1訓(xùn)20窯0CQ宿S灑(H液on菠g匹Ko愿ng告)謊Li篩mi耗te潛d15搏-0壺8談Tw干o途Ex錢ch違an扶ge佛S忠qu惡ar障e8帆Co對nn溪au協(xié)gh鄙t跌Pl魯ac總eCe稍nt舌ra蝴lHo盾ng體K宜on墨g反SA吊RCh碑in扒aTe葡l:狀+8傾52餡3挽92云0序86壓00Fa終x:嚴(yán)+沃85止2遞25纏21為3菜18章9CQ攏S告(U素S)吐,另LL積C15正2吉We魔st龍5喂7t惹h眠St忍re錫et41營st迫F搞lo互orNe崇w趙Yo膊rk變,擁NY恥1退00血19Un妖it啊ed霧S押ta風(fēng)te旗sTe喂l:霜+群1頭91乒7各20嫁6傻40今00Fa有x:笛+礎(chǔ)1窯91寨7寶20伏6盾40倚99CQ皺S謀In尼ve撫st筍me問nt離M欺an負(fù)ag南em和en魂t燙(A惜us蝕tr易al移ia臟)夫Pt延y翻Li暢mi銹te初dGo筒ld池fi惜el小ds砍H點(diǎn)ou嘆se1滾Al權(quán)fr柜ed富S負(fù)tr慶ee竭tSy帥dn傾eyNS臣W爹20截00Au必st擴(kuò)ra爐li東aTe下l:痛+灑61熊2爺9農(nóng)25目8箱16斬50in釘fo劫@c憂qs街.c四hww悔w.槳cq呢s.盒chDi孔sc木la區(qū)im妥er43CQSisafounderoftheHedgeFundStandardsBoard(“HFSB”)whichwasformedtoactascustodianofthehedgefundbestpracticestandards(the“Standards”)publishedbytheHedgeFundWorkingGroup(“HFWG”)in2008andtopromoteconformitytotheStandards.HFSBisalsoresponsibleforensuringthattheyareupdatedandrefinedasappropriate.TheStandardsweredrawnupbyHFWGwhichcomprisedtheleadinghedgefunds(basedmainlyinLondon)in2007inresponsetoconcernsabouttheindustry,includingfinancialstabilityandsystematicrisk.TheHFWGcompleteditsworkinJanuary2008andpublisheditsreportoutliningtheStandards.Byapplying,managerscommittoadoptthe“complyorexplain”approachdescribedintheStandards.Theterm“CQS”mayincludeoneormoreofanyCQSbrandedentityincludingCQSCaymanLimitedPartnershipwhichisregisteredwiththeCaymanIslandsMonetaryAuthority,CQS(UK)LLP,CQSInvestmentManagementLimitedandCQSAssetManagementLimitedwhichareeachauthorisedandregulatedbytheUKFinancialServicesAuthority,CQS(HongKong)LimitedwhichisregulatedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission,CQS(US),LLCwhichisregisteredwiththeUSSecuritiesandExchangeCommission,CQS(Switzerland)S.AandCQSInvestmentManagement(Australia)PtyLimitedwhichisregisteredwiththeAustralianSecurities&InvestmentsCommission.Thisdocumenthasbeenpreparedforgeneralinformationpurposesonlyandhasnotbeendeliveredforregistrationinanyjurisdictionnorhasitscontentbeenreviewedbyanyregulatoryauthorityinanyjurisdiction.Theinformationcontainedhereindoesnotconstitute:(i)abindinglegalagreement;(ii)legal,regulatory,tax,accountingorotheradvice;(iii)anoffer,recommendationorsolicitationtobuyorsellsharesinanyfundoranysecurity,commodity,financialinstrumentorderivativelinkedto,orotherwiseincludedin,aportfoliomanagedoradvisedbyCQS;or(iv)anoffertoenterintoanyothertransactionwhatsoever,(eacha“Transaction”).AnydecisiontoenterintoaTransactionshouldbebasedonyourownindependentinvestigationoftheTransactionandappraisaloftherisks,benefitsandsuitabilityofsuchTransactioninlightofyourindividualcircumstances.Whereapplicable,anydecisiontoenterintoanyTransactionshouldbebasedonthetermsdescribedintherelevantprospectus,supplement,offeringmemorandum,privateplacementmemorandum,tradingstrategy,constitutionaldocumentand/oranyotherrelevantdocumentasappropriate(“OfferingDocument”).AnyTransactionwillbesubjecttothetermssetoutinitsOfferingDocumentandallapplicablelawsandregulations.TheOfferingDocumentsupersedesthisdocumentandanyinformationcontainedherein.Nothingcontainedhereinshallconstituteorgiverisetotherelationshipofpartnershipnorshallitconstituteajointventureorgiverisetoanyfiduciaryorequitableduties.Anyinf