全球發(fā)展中心-海運業(yè)脫碳：推動印尼能源公正轉(zhuǎn)型的機遇（英）

CGDNOTE|JUNE2023

DecarbonizingtheMaritime

Industry:AnOpportunitytoFurther

Indonesia’sJustEnergyTransition

AnnikaSeiler

TheraceisontodecarbonizetheenergysectorinIndonesia.InNovember2022,thegovernment

ofIndonesiaandtheInternationalPartnersGroup(IPG)1launchedtheirJustEnergyTransition

Partnership(JETP).Aspartofthepartnership,Indonesiacommittedtoraisetheshareofrenewables

initspowergenerationmixfromitscurrentlevelof19percentto34percentby2030.Thecountry

alsocommittedtoachievinganearlypeakingofcarbonemissionsandadvancingitsnet-zero

emissioncommitmentbyadecadefrom2060to2050.InreturnforIndonesia’sincreasedpolicy

ambitions,theIPGinconjunctionwithleadingfinancialinstitutionspledgedtosupportthecountry

withaninitialamountof$20billion,halfofwhichwillcomefromtheprivatesector.(

Ministryof

FinanceofJapan,2022

)

Indonesia’sJETPhasreceivedconsiderableattentionasaleadingtestcaseforhowdonors,providers

ofofficialfinance,andtheprivatesectorcanpartnerwithlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesto

reduceemissionswhilepromotingdevelopmentprogress.Sofar,mostofthefocusinIndonesia’s

JETPhasbeenoneffortstoreducethesupplyofcarbon-intensivepowerbyrefinancingcoal-fired

powerplantstoretirethemearlyandreplacethemwithrenewables.Butthisstrategyalonemay

notdeliverthespeedandscaleofthetransitionrequiredasitreliesonlargeamountsofgrantand

concessionalfunding,whichmaybedifficulttosecure.Effortstoboostdemandforrenewable-based

energydeservemoreattention.Onesucheffortisparticularlypromisingingeneratingsynergiesfor

Indonesia’slow-carbondevelopmentgoals.

DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER2

INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITION

Decarbonizingtheshippingindustry

Fiveyearsafteradoptingits

initialstrategy

onreducinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromships,theInternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)isacceleratingitseffortstodecarbonizetheshippingsector,theworld’sseventh-largestcarbonemitter.Nextmonth,theIMOisexpectedtoadoptamoreambitiousstrategytocutcarbonemissionsfromthesector,whoseGHGemissionsareprojectedtoincreaseupto50percentby2050comparedto2018levelsifnewregulationsaren’tadopted(

IMO,2020

).IfIMOfullyalignsthenewstrategywiththe1.5°Cclimategoal,itcouldtriggermajorinvestmentsinalternativebunkerfuels(thefuelusedbymarinevessels)thatproduceverylow,andultimatelyzero,GHGemissionsduringtheirproduction,distribution,anduse.Itcouldalsopromptnewinvestmentsinzero-emissionvesselsthatcanoperateonsuchalternativefuels.

Zero-andlow-emissionbunkerfuelsupplyinfrastructureinvestmentsaccountfornearly90percentoftheestimated$1.4to$1.9trillionneededtofullydecarbonizetheshippingindustryby2050(

GMF,2021

;

UMAS,2020

).Whileresearchanddevelopmentisongoing,studiesidentifiedgreenammoniaasthemostpromisingzero-emissionfueloptionforlargerships,followedbygreenhydrogen.2Comparedtootherpotentiallow-andzero-emissionbunkerfuels,greenammoniaisassessedtohavethelargestcostreductionpotentialovertimeandsuperiorstoragecharacteristicscomparedtogreenhydrogen.Itsscalabilitymakesitamorefavorablefuelcomparedtolow-emissionbiofuels,particularlysuitedforlong-distanceshippingroutes.Moreover,ammoniaasafertilizerisinternationallytradedandportsareexperiencedinhandlingandstoringit.Accordingly,annualdemandforgreenammoniaforshippingisprojectedtoincreasebyupto950millionmetrictonsby2050andrepresenta$5trillionmarket(

McKinsey2023

,

WorldBank,2021

,

UMAS,2020

).

TheGlobalMaritimeForumestimatesthatbetween18and20exajouleofalternativezero-emissionfuelwouldberequiredtofullydecarbonizetheshippingsector(

GMF,2021

).Basedonthisprojection,weestimatethatby2030,between70GWand100GWofadditionalrenewablepowerandgreenhydrogen/ammoniaproductioncapacitywouldneedtobeinstalled,providedgreenammoniabecomesthepreferredalternativezero-emissionfuel;by2050,thatestimaterisestobetween800GWand1,200GW.Toachievefulldecarbonizationby2050andthenecessarylarge-scaledeploymentofalternativefuelsbetween2030and2040,rapidprogressmustbemadebetweennowand2030andatleast5percentoftheshippingfuelmixmustbemadeupoflow-orzero-emissionfuels(

GMF,2021

).

DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER3

INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITION

Opportunitiesandsynergiesforgreenshippingin

Indonesia

ThemaritimeindustryisofstrategicimportanceforIndonesia,thelargestarchipelagiccountryintheworld.Indonesiaiscomposedofover17,000islandsandislocatedalongtwooftheworld’sbusiesttraderoutes:theStraitofMalacca,andtheSundaStrait.In2021,Indonesiaregisteredatrade-to-GDPratioof39.5percent;itsyear-on-yearmerchandisetradegrewbyabout40percentandaccountedfor91percentofIndonesia’stotaltrade.From2017-2021,Indonesia’smerchandiseexportsgrewby11.8percent,fasterthantheAsiaPacificregion’s9.6percentannualaveragegrowthduringthesameperiod(

ESCAP,2023

).Indonesia’scontainerthroughputin2021amountedto14,025,449TEU(twenty-footequivalentunit—ameasurementofcargocapacity).ThisislargerthanthatofFranceandtheUKcombined(

UNCTADSTAT,2023

).Indonesiahas11internationalcontainerports,97bunkeringports,and141oilterminals.Morethan900,000workersareengagedinbothinternationalanddomesticshipping(

IMO,2023

).

Indonesia’sGHGemissionsfromshippingin2018areestimatedtorepresentabout3.7percentofglobaltotalshippingemissions,87percentofwhichareemittedbybulkcarriers,tankers,containerships,andsmallerindustrialships.(

GMF,2022

).Giventherapidtradeexpansion,Indonesia’sshareinglobalemissionisforecasttoincreaserapidlywithouttimelyintervention.ThisunderlinestheimportantroleIndonesiahasinsupportingshippingdecarbonizationinthedecadestocome.

Atthesametime,thetransformationintheglobalbunkerfuelmarketandforeseeablenear-termdemandforzero-emissionbunkerfuelsdrivenbyfirst-movergreencorridor3projectsunderdevelopmentnearIndonesiaofferthecountryanexcellentopportunitytoleverageitsnationalcomparativeadvantages,positionitselfasamajorexporterduringtheperiodofgrowingdemandexpectedfrom2030onwards,andpreparefordecarbonizingitsnationalmaritimeactivity.

TheportofSingapore,theworld’ssecond-largesttransshipmentport(

UNCTAD,2022

)andjust8nauticalmilesfromamajorIndonesianbunkeringhub,isattheheartofseveralfirst-movergreenshippingcorridorinitiatives.InAugust2022,SingaporelaunchedagreencorridorwithEurope’slargestportinRotterdam(TheMaritimeExecutive,2022).ItisalsoatthecenteroftheLlyod’sRegisterandpartners’SilkAlliancegreencorridor,linkingSoutheastAsiatoChina,theIndiansubcontinent,andtheArabianPeninsula,whichwaslaunchedearlierin2022(

Llyod’sRegister,

2022

);andonelaunchedwiththeportsofLosAngelesandLongBeachinApril2023(

TheMaritime

Executive,2023

).Finally,itisalsoatthecrossroadsofapotentialgreenshippingcorridorunderdevelopmentbytheQuadrilateralSecurityDialogue(QUAD)partners.

Theviabilityoftheseprojectsdependsonasecureandreliablesupplyoflow-costzero-andlow-emissionbunkerfuels.Todate,theshortfallinproductioncapacityremainslarge.Forexample,theannouncedgreenhydrogenandgreenammoniaproductioncapacityalongtheEastAsia-Europe

DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER4

INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITION

corridorislessthan10percentofwhatwouldberequiredby2030toachievefulldecarbonizationby2050.4

Indonesiaiswellplacedtoseizetheopportunitiesfromthedecarbonizationofmaritimeshippingandunfoldsynergieswithitsambitiouseffortstowardajustenergytransition,asunderlinedbyseveralfactors.

First,IndonesiaalreadyhasaclearvisiontoimprovemaritimeconnectivityanddevelopnecessaryinfrastructurethatisbeingcarriedoutthroughtheGlobalMaritimeFulcrum.Overthelastdecade,Indonesiamultiplieditsdiplomatictiesandsignedcooperationagreementswithkeypartners,includingAustralia,China,Japan,Singapore,andtheUnitedStatestodevelophumanandmarineresources,institutionalandmaritimegovernance,andmaritimeeconomyandinfrastructure(

LalisangandCandra,2020

).

TheMinistryforMaritimeAffairsandInvestmentsisnotonlythemainimplementoroftheGlobalMaritimeFulcrumbutisalsotheleadnegotiatorforIndonesia’sJETPwiththeIPG.Theintersectionoftheserolesbringseffortsunderoneroof,creatingsynergiesforefficientpolicycoordinationtoaddresstechnical,financial,commercial,andpoliticalchallengesrelatedtothedecarbonizationoftheeconomythatideallyneedtobesolvedinparallelandatonce.

Second,Indonesiaisendowedwithabundantrenewableresourcesandhasrecentlysignificantlyimprovedthebusinessecosystemforanaccelerateddeploymentoftheseresources.TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyestimatedthatIndonesia’ssolar,wind,andgeothermalresourcepotentialexceeds3,500gigawatts,ofwhichover99percentremainsundevelopedtodate(

IRENA,2022

).InSeptember2022,thecountrypromulgatedarevisedpricingregimeforrenewables,puttingthematparwithfossilfuel-basedresourcesandsignificantlyreducingin-countrydevelopmentrisks.

Third,Indonesiacanleverageexistingpartnerships,includingtheJETPandthosebetweendomesticstate-ownedenterprisesandprivatesectorentitieswithinternationaldeveloperstoscaleuptheirlearningandproductioninfrastructureforalternativezeroandlow-emissionbunkerfuels.Forexample,in2022,Pertamina,thestate-ownedoilandnaturalgascorporation,signedagreementswithChevron&KeppelInfrastructuretodevelopageothermal-poweredgreenammoniaproductionplant,andonewithAramcotoexplorethepotentialforcarboncapture,utilization,andstoragetoproducelow-emissionammonia(

AmmoniaEnergy,2023

).

Fourth,thecountryisalsoimprovingitssustainablefinancebusinessecosystemforanacceleratedgreentransition.InFebruary2023,thegovernmentlaunchedamandatory,intensity-basedemissionstradingschemecoveringcoal-firedpowerplantsthataccountfor81.4percentofthecountry’snationalpowergenerationcapacity(

WorldBank,2023

).

DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER5

INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITION

Indonesiahasalsoexpandedaccesstogreenfinanceinrecentyears.Sovereigngreensukuks(Islamicbonds)arenowIndonesia’smainfinancinginstrumentforclimateactions,renewableenergy,sustainabletransportation,andclimatechangeresilienceprojects.AsofMarch2022,Indonesia’stotaloutstandinggreensukukandsustainablebondsreachedUS$7.1billion(

ADB,

2022

).Thegrowthofitssustainablebondmarkethasbeensupportedbythegovernment’sstrongcommitmenttoimplementing

ASEAN’sSustainableCapitalMarketsRoadmap

.Since2017,ithasadoptedgreen,social,andsustainability(GSS)andSustainableDevelopmentGoal(SDG)bondframeworksaswellasthe

ASEANTaxonomyforSustainableFinance

.

ChallengestoandSolutionsforIndonesia’sMaritime

Decarbonization

ForIndonesiatorealizethepotentialsynergieswiththedecarbonizationoftheinternationalshippingindustry,itwillneedtodevelopitszero-emissionbunkerfuelsupplychain,includingfuelproduction,transport,distribution,andstorage.Asbunkeringshiftstoportsthatcanprovidethemostcompetitivefuels,Indonesiamustaddressthecostgapbetweenthezero-emissionandtraditionalbunkerfuel,ranginginternationallybetween$10and$53pergigajoule(

IEA,2023

).

Moreover,itwillneedtocatchupwithotherproviders,whoarefurtheradvancedonthelearningcurvefordevelopingtheirgreenhydrogenandgreenammoniasupplychains.Thegovernmentmustdrivearapidreductionofbothrenewablepowerandzero-emissionfuelgenerationcosts.Itmustalsodriveacceleratedin-countrylearning,technologyimprovements,andinnovationsthroughsupporttoresearch,development,anddemonstration(RD&D),anddeploymentofrenewable-poweredelectrolyzerstoproducezeroemissionfuels.

Indonesiawillneedtoinvestinnewbunkeringinfrastructure,bunkeringvessels,andnewregulationsandgovernancesystems.Itmustalsoaddresschallengesintermsofashortageinskilledworkersandhumanresourcesalongthevaluechain.Todate,thereareover20hydrogenbunkeringinfrastructureprojectsandover10forammoniaworldwide(

IEA,2022

).Indonesianeedstoscaleupitslearninginthisarea.

WhatcouldIndonesiadotoreapthebenefitsfromtheseattractivesynergies?

Tomakethemostofthesesynergies,thegovernmentofIndonesiashould:

?Sendaclearsignalbycommittingtothedecarbonizationofshipping,updatingitsGlobalMaritimeFulcrumstrategy,andcomplementingitwitharoadmaptobecomeapreferredsupplierofalternative,zero-emissionbunkerfuel.

DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER6

INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITION

?ExpanditsexistingJETPanditsmaritimediplomacytiestodevelopzero-emissionbunkerfuelinfrastructure.SincetheMinistryofMaritimeAffairsandInvestmentsisresponsibleforboththecoordinationoftheJETPandtheimplementationstrategyforIndonesia’sGlobalMaritimeFulcrum,theministryshouldtaketheleadandproactivelypushforgeneratingthesesynergies.

?Harnessdemandforzero-emissionbunkerfuelstosupportinvestmentsinthedecarbonizationofdomesticenergysystems.Policymakerscouldaimtocomplementthecountry’sJETPwithapartnershipfordecarbonizingshipping,andanincreaseinconcessionalandpublicfinance(i.e.,grants,loans)forRD&Dandpilotprojectsrelatedtozero-emissionshipping.

?Providefinancingsupportforintegratedrenewableandgreenammoniaproductiondemonstrationprojectsunderthecountry’sjustenergytransitionmechanismandsupportpublic-privatecollaborationonlarge-scalezero-emissiondemonstrationprojects.

?Leveragesynergiesandprepareconsistentjusttransitionframeworksfortheenergyandtheshippingindustryandpreparearoadmaptowardasustainablepathforthemaritimesectorentails.Thiswouldrequire,amongotherthings,strategiesforreskillingandupskillingstaffandunlockingwidersocialandresiliencebenefits.

HowcanIndonesia’sinternationalpartnerscreateandsupportsynergiesforajustenergytransition?

Indonesia’sinternationalJETPpartnersaresignatoriestothe

ClydebankDeclaration

andsupportersofgreenshippingcorridors.Recognizingtheneedforcost-effectivenessandvalue-for-money,internationalpartnerscouldworktogetherwithIndonesiatoadvancethedecarbonizationoftheshippingsectorinparallelwiththecountry’sjustenergytransition.Potentialspecificsupportmeasuresincludethefollowing:

?IncentivizeinternationaltechnologyandinnovationcooperationwithIndonesianstate-ownedenterprisesandprivatesectorentitiestodevelopgreenhydrogenandgreenammoniasupply,andtoreduceelectrolysiscostsinIndonesia.

?Incentivizefirstmoversthroughconcessionalfundingandlong-termofftakeguaranteesforproducersofzero-emissionfuels.

?UsetheirinfluenceandconveningpowertoconnecttheJETPsforIndonesiaandVietnamwitheffortstodecarbonizeshipping;createanetworkofsuppliersbetweenthesetwocountries,andworkwithindustrystakeholderstoadvancethegreencorridors.

?Facilitatelearningandexchangeofexperiences,partnerandprovidetechnicalassistanceforthedevelopmentandimplementationof(i)aninteroperable,transparent,andconsistentcertificationsystemforgreenhydrogenandgreenammonia,amust-haveifthecountryistoreapbenefitsfromthetrendtowardzero-emissionshipping;(ii)alternativefuelsafetyguidelines;and(iii)developmentofajusttransitionframeworkforIndonesia’sshippingindustry.

?Finally,internationalpartnerscouldprovideexpertiseinharmonizingtaxonomies,disclosure,andreportingstandardstofacilitatethegrowthofESGinvestingindecarbonizingthesector.

Conclusion

Globally,thespeedandscaleofdecarbonizationofshippingdependsonanacceleratedandcost-

efficientenergytransition.InIndonesia,theinverseisalsotrue.Demand-sideeffo