證券研究報告 暑運出行鏈景氣提升汽車交易熱度高位 20230708 -中信建投

證券研究報告策略周報，汽車交易熱度高位odcqcsccomcnjiaobjcsccomcnwencsccomcn2023年07月08日本報告由中信建投證券股份有限公司在中華人民共和國(僅為本報告目的，不包括香港、澳門、臺灣)提供。在遵守適用的法律法規(guī)情況下，本報告亦可能由中信建投(國際)證券有限公司在香港提供。請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款和聲明。本周市場表現(xiàn)/景氣/估值要點概覽核心觀點：市場表現(xiàn)層面，本周低市盈率、小盤、交通運輸表現(xiàn)居前。盈利層面，7月23年Wind盈利一致預(yù)期上調(diào)幅度靠前的申萬一業(yè)為交通運輸、社會服務(wù)、綜合。景氣層面，地產(chǎn)方面，地產(chǎn)銷售同比降幅有所收窄；乘用車熱度進(jìn)一步上行；光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價格基本止跌。估值及交易熱度層面，申萬一級板塊中，汽車/機械設(shè)備周成交額占比較高，處于5年99.6%/98.4%分位；申萬二級板塊中，汽車零部件、機器人交易熱度高位。市場表現(xiàn)：本周(7.1-7.7)低市盈率、科技、交通運輸表現(xiàn)居前；消費、高市盈率、大盤表現(xiàn)靠后。主要指數(shù)成分中，上證50、上證指數(shù)居前；創(chuàng)業(yè)板指、科創(chuàng)50表現(xiàn)靠后。行業(yè)漲跌幅上，汽車/石油石化/交通運輸居前；傳媒/電力設(shè)備/國防軍工跌幅居前。熱門概念方面，無人駕駛表現(xiàn)較好，其余普遍下跌。盈利預(yù)測變動：7月23年Wind盈利一致預(yù)期上調(diào)幅度靠前的申萬一級行業(yè)為交通運輸(+0.91%)、社會服務(wù)(+0.41%)、綜合(+0.23%)；下調(diào)幅度靠前的行業(yè)為農(nóng)林牧漁、建筑材料。數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分方面，以Wind一致預(yù)期看，23年盈利預(yù)期排序：游戲(918%)>在線教育 (162%)>SAAS(156%)>網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全(134%)>顯示面板(119%)>數(shù)據(jù)安全(118%)>數(shù)字政府(78%)>消費電子(64%)。行業(yè)景氣核心指標(biāo)變動：1)周期：價格上行：動力煤、玻璃、布油等；價格震蕩：鋼鐵、焦煤/焦炭、PTA等；價格下行：水泥、銅/鋁等；2)大金融：地產(chǎn)方面，地產(chǎn)銷售同比降幅收窄，截至7月2日當(dāng)周，30城新房成交面積同比-24%，降幅較上周大幅收窄22.3pct。銀行方面，5月社融/信貸均大幅少增，低于預(yù)期，預(yù)計6月社融仍偏弱；3)高端制造：汽車方面，各地汽車促消費活動大面積開展，乘用車熱度進(jìn)一步上行。據(jù)乘聯(lián)會初步統(tǒng)計，6月1-30日，乘用車市場零售189.6萬輛，同比下降2%，環(huán)比增長9%。新能源車市場零售63.8萬輛，同比增長19%，環(huán)比增長10%。光伏方面，硅料價格本周止跌，電池反彈，靜待組件需求回升。4)消費：必選方面，收儲落地難改基本面壓力，預(yù)計豬價仍將磨底，可選方面，淡季白酒整體以庫存消化為主。估值水平及交易熱度：滬深300及滬深300(非金融)股權(quán)風(fēng)險溢價位于90%分位上方；中證1000/萬得全A(除金融、石油石化)估值分位分別處于市盈率5年49.2%/48.4%分位數(shù)附近；寧組合/創(chuàng)業(yè)板指分別處于市盈率5年0.4%/7.4%分位數(shù)附近。申萬一級板塊中，汽車/機械設(shè)備周成交額占比較高，處于5年99.6%/98.4%分位；申萬二級板塊中，汽車零部件、機器人交易熱度高位。風(fēng)險提示：數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計存在誤差、海內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退、市場流動性風(fēng)險。股指及風(fēng)格市場表現(xiàn)：低市盈率/小盤占優(yōu)本周(7.1-7.7)低市盈率、小盤、交通運輸風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)居前；科技、高市盈率、大盤風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)靠后?？亢?。12456124567723-1.05-2.0上證-2.1時間0606MW206MW306MW406MW507MW1大/小盤低/中/高市盈率中信風(fēng)格小盤大盤低中高金融地產(chǎn)原材料設(shè)備制造交通運輸消費科技-0.892.21-1.602.880.11-1.392.25-2.070.58-0.541.09-0.73-6-3.165.85-1.89-0.15-1.22-2.263.60-0.88-2.19-1.550.321.16-0.20-2.55-0.030.321.16-0.20-2.55-0.030.48-1.175.94-0.122.22-1.211.650.21-2.770.403.00-1.763.67-3.49-0.21-0.924.542.084.540.51-0.51-2.32-2.50-2.32-2.500.84行業(yè)漲跌幅表現(xiàn)：汽車/石油石化/交通運輸表現(xiàn)居前4.02.72.22.01.81.71.61.42.00.90.70.50.50.30.3-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.9-1.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.9-1.0-1.3-6.0-5.2汽石交有非鋼煤農(nóng)電公建商房社環(huán)食輕紡基銀機美家建醫(yī)計通國電傳車油通色銀鐵炭林子用筑貿(mào)地會保品工織礎(chǔ)行械容用筑藥算信防力媒石運金金牧事裝零產(chǎn)服飲制服化設(shè)護(hù)電材生機軍設(shè)化輸屬融漁業(yè)飾售務(wù)料造飾工備理器料物工備00飼料元件保險車種植業(yè)漁業(yè).2.33.73.6.2.7前申萬二級行業(yè)分析機場5.2%46.6%暑運表現(xiàn)亮眼，7月1日至7月7日，國內(nèi)平均日執(zhí)行航班13700架次，較去年同期增長21.5%。據(jù)民航局，預(yù)計今年暑運日均保障國內(nèi)客運航班13600班、運輸國內(nèi)旅客183萬人次，較2019年分別增長11%、7%。5.2%以地鐵客運量衡量餐飲需求，截至7月1日當(dāng)周，十八城地鐵客運量日均7053.3萬人次，持續(xù)高位運行，較22年同期大幅增長41.3%。4.7%19.3%能源安全重要性凸顯，國內(nèi)“增儲上產(chǎn)”政策持續(xù)推進(jìn)，疊加高油價驅(qū)動上游資本開支。4.3%78.7%關(guān)于組織開展汽車促消費活動的通知、國常會研究推動經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)回升向好的一批政策措施、關(guān)于開展2023年新能源汽車下鄉(xiāng)活動、關(guān)于延續(xù)和優(yōu)化新能源汽車車輛購置稅減免政策的公告等政策加持下，各地汽車促消費活動大面積開展，乘用車熱度進(jìn)一步上行。3.8%74.7%海關(guān)總署7日表示，為防范受到放射性污染的日本食品輸華，保護(hù)中國消費者進(jìn)口食品安全，中國海關(guān)禁止進(jìn)口日本福島等十個縣(都)食品，對來自日本其他地區(qū)的食品特別是水產(chǎn)品(含食用水生動物)嚴(yán)格審核隨附證明文件，強化監(jiān)管，嚴(yán)格實施100%查驗，持續(xù)加強對放射性物質(zhì)的檢測監(jiān)測力度，確保日本輸華食品安全，嚴(yán)防存在風(fēng)險的產(chǎn)品輸入。國內(nèi)漁業(yè)公司因此上漲。3.7%在中國宣布對鎵、鍺相關(guān)物項實施出口管制之后，商務(wù)部原副部長魏建國表示反制的工具還有很多。而我國占據(jù)全球稀土產(chǎn)量的絕大多數(shù)，因此稀土被視為潛在的重要反制工wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w10018城地鐵客運量高位回落(萬)2019202020212022202312000002022-052022-082022-112023-022023-05)002021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032019202020212022202300Wind6wwwwww1w3wwwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w12中4中6中8中wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1圖：汽車全鋼胎(重型卡車)開工率(%)圖：日均粗鋼產(chǎn)量略有回落(萬噸/天)2019202020212022202302019202020212022202300201920202021202220232019202020212022202300Wind7wwwwww1w3w5wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w1wwww201920202021202220230日耗量:煤炭:南方八省電廠140201920202021202220230續(xù)回落20192020202120222023w1w3ww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1Wind8周期階段起始時間終止時間持續(xù)時間主動補庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存2009/8/12010/5/192010/5/12011/10/12011/10/12012/9/12012/9/12013/8/1主動補庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存2013/8/12013/11/132013/11/12014/9/12014/9/12015/12/12015/12/12016/6/16主動補庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存2016/6/12017/3/192017/3/12018/8/12018/8/12019/10/1主動補庫存被動補庫存被動去庫存2019/10/12020/1/132020/1/12020/3/122020/3/12020/10/17主動補庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存2020/10/12021/4/162021/4/12021/11/172021/11/12022/3/142022/3/12022/5/122022/5/12023/5/12023/5/12022/5/311比55-1560%50%40%30%20%%PE(TTM)10年分位PE(TTM)10年分位A上證50科創(chuàng)50科創(chuàng)50寧組合-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%近近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)5050上證指數(shù)茅指數(shù)AA創(chuàng)5051015202530354045 指數(shù)近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)PE(整體法,TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(中位數(shù),TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PB(LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位萬得全A0.3%17.517.520.8%44.5%38.6%334.8561.68%70.42%36.32%213.6%24.5%19.7%萬得全A(除金融、石油石化)0.6%28.528.524.7%48.4%41.4%335.6862.98%71.59%37.30%2.322.3210.4%38.5%31.1%上證指數(shù)0.3%12.928.6%43.0%36.1%331.0872.72%83.65%51.56%1.3216.9%20.6%15.2%滬深3000.9%11.610.4%19.9%26.7%14.93%33.85%25.78%1.337.8%10.9%13.9%上證500.6%9.715.6%31.6%37.1%18.4957.14%74.31%75.39%1.2211.0%35.4%39.5%中證5009.4%23.023.046.8%43.0%21.8%225.4762.98%70.81%35.54%40.3%42.0%21.1%中證1000-0.4%36.36.356.5%49.2%33.2%333.3657.14%68.09%39.23%12.3%38.5%22.2%創(chuàng)業(yè)板指-0.2%%7.4%3.7%335.1913.63%19.45%9.76%44.453.9%19.8%15.8%科創(chuàng)50-1.4%41.518.2%15.6%15.6%50.108.44%7.26%7.26%44.379.7%8.4%8.4%茅指數(shù)-0.1%22.022.01.3%1.3%223.8%58.858.8%3131.365.19%5.19%5.835.83%2424.41%3.93.94建投49.2%寧組合-0.3%%0.4%0.2%336.613.89%2.33%1.17%5.630.6%21.0%52.1%Wind10股權(quán)風(fēng)險溢價：滬深300位于7年90%分位上方0308030801061104090207120510030801062020-11040902071205071103071103071103071103071103072020-1103071103071103A)7年10%-90%區(qū)間7年均值A(chǔ))7年10%-90%區(qū)間7年均值5454763521213201-1-1-2-1隱含風(fēng)險溢價=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年期國債隱含風(fēng)險溢價=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年期國債03080106110403080106110409020712051003080106110409020712054滬深300(除金融)隱含風(fēng)險溢價(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間7年均值3210-1萬得全A(除金融兩油)股權(quán)風(fēng)險溢價萬得全A(除金融兩油)隱含風(fēng)險溢價(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間3210-103030801061104090207120510030801061104090207071205隱含風(fēng)險溢價=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年期國債年盈利預(yù)期上證23年預(yù)測市盈率PB(LF)ROE(TTM)-23Q1數(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)上證50數(shù)深3除金科創(chuàng)50年盈利預(yù)期上證23年預(yù)測市盈率PB(LF)ROE(TTM)-23Q1數(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)上證50數(shù)深3除金科創(chuàng)50融、石油石除金0數(shù)PE-G(注：藍(lán)色空心圓代表上一月盈利預(yù)期所在位置)圖：主要指數(shù)PB-ROE38PE-G97051015202530354045505BROE0123456板塊年初至今漲跌幅盈利增速預(yù)測2023年盈利增速預(yù)測調(diào)整-月度2023年盈利增速預(yù)測調(diào)整-周度6月調(diào)整幅度7月調(diào)整幅度00.91%上周調(diào)整幅度本周調(diào)整幅度交通運輸-6.-6.0-7.7-9.57.3-14.011.3-9.2-3.74.2-14.7-23.2-3.72041.1%-44.1%91.7%0.05%--0.01%0.91%社會服務(wù)8.3%-43.4%18986.4%0.18%00.41%00.03%00.41%綜合83.0%-4.3%-38.2%--0.51%00.23%--0.24%00.23%公用事業(yè)-58.7%84.6%89.2%0.37%00.14%0.07%00.14%房地產(chǎn)-77.4%-213.4%81.3%--2.17%00.13%-1.14%00.13%環(huán)保-13.3%-11.1%38.8%0.04%00.06%00.00%00.06%非銀金融5.4%-26.9%38.6%-0.01%00.05%--0.01%00.05%家用電器10.1%9.9%17.1%-0.08%00.03%--0.02%00.03%食品飲料9.8%12.8%24.1%-0.04%00.01%--0.02%00.01%煤炭72.9%51.7%2.5%0.01%00.01%--0.03%00.01%國防軍工8.5%-7.4%71.6%--0.23%00.00%--0.04%00.00%美容護(hù)理38.9%-34.8%54.3%0.40%00.00%--0.03%00.00%商貿(mào)零售-164.5%72.7%87.1%0.11%00.00%00.03%00.00%銀行12.6%7.6%5.6%0.02%00.00%00.00%00.00%鋼鐵-2.722.98.712.347.09.624.635.3-7.511.8-6.4-2.189.9%-72.9%61.9%--0.34%00.00%0.19%00.00%紡織服飾59.8%-42.8%27.0%--0.27%00.00%--0.09%00.00%汽車11.9%-0.4%45.4%--0.60%00.00%--0.11%00.00%機械設(shè)備9.5%-6.1%34.4%0.19%00.00%00.04%00.00%通信9.5%17.3%14.1%-0.01%--0.01%--0.01%--0.01%石油石化165.0%30.9%7.4%-0.08% -0.01%--0.02%--0.01%計算機6.0%-44.2%106.0%--0.59% -0.03%--0.14% -0.03%傳媒82.2%-68.9%194.5%-0.10% -0.05%--0.10% -0.05%醫(yī)藥生物55.6%-6.2%31.7%--0.25% -0.06%--0.01% -0.06%電子96.2%-28.4%36.8%--0.86% -0.08%--0.16% -0.08%電力設(shè)備42.0%82.8%38.3%--0.39% -0.09%--0.06% -0.09%輕工制造0.6%-32.2%67.9%--0.96% -0.11% -0.54% -0.11%建筑裝飾10.1-3.3%11.8%18.7%--0.27% -0.15%00.02% -0.15%有色金屬-1.3-8.6-8.6-12.3-8.8133.4%68.4%13.2%--0.36%--0.15%基礎(chǔ)化工129.7%-5.6%10.9%--1.26%-0.34%--0.31%-0.34%建筑材料19.5%-46.1%30.2%-1.42-1.42%-0.35%--0.31%-0.35%農(nóng)林牧漁-140.8%155.4%97.9%-4.83%-0.86%--0.43%-0.86%指標(biāo)頻率銅數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間2023/7/7指標(biāo)頻率銅數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間2023/7/72023/7/72023/7/72023/7/72023/7/72023/7/7價格陰極銅期貨國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨日日6.66.8萬元/噸萬元/噸產(chǎn)量精煉銅銅材進(jìn)口銅礦+廢銅月月月109.5199.9273.3萬噸萬噸萬噸3.4%5.4%21.6%庫存上期所LME+COMEX周日7.59.5萬噸萬噸指標(biāo)頻率鋁數(shù)值單位環(huán)比同比趨勢價格鋁期貨國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨1.8萬元/噸-0.8%1.8萬元/噸-1.8%產(chǎn)量電解鋁鋁材進(jìn)口鋁土礦開工率月月月月341.5542.7091.9萬噸萬噸萬噸%2.4%0.3%7.8%65.0%-0.5庫存上期所LME周日10.253.5萬噸萬噸動力煤更新時間7573更新時間7777指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢價格動力煤期貨價環(huán)渤海動力煤紐卡斯?fàn)柆F(xiàn)貨價動力煤長協(xié)價日周周月801.4715.0137.9701.0元/噸元/噸美元/噸元/噸0.0%-0.6%14.7%量原煤產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比進(jìn)口量當(dāng)月同比月月4.292.6%%-0.319.9--庫存CCTD主流港口庫存周7420.1萬噸-1.1%16%樣本區(qū)域電廠日耗周需求當(dāng)月發(fā)電量月消費量：動力煤：電力月203萬噸6885.8億千瓦時19860.0萬噸.0%4.6%焦煤指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢價格國內(nèi)期貨價港口現(xiàn)貨價日日336.5386.0元/噸元/噸1.3%量原煤產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比進(jìn)口量當(dāng)月同比月月4.292.6%%-0.3--庫存六港口合計焦化廠可用天數(shù)周周227.39.6萬噸天5.5%0.0-25指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間地新建土地購置面積同比新增土地成交價款同比土地溢價率-51.6-51.35.6%%%6.8-0.52.9--1.5價格70城新房價格指數(shù)同比70城二手房價格指數(shù)同比百城住宅價格：一線：同比百城住宅價格：二線：同比百城住宅價格：三線：同比二手房價格指數(shù)-0.5-2.5-0.2-0.40.1%%%%%0.200.20-0.05-0.14-0.07------4.3%量30城成交面積同比商品房銷售面積：累計同比開發(fā)投資：累計同比施工面積：累計同比新開工面積：累計同比竣工面積：累計同比-24.0-0.9-7.2-6.2-22.66%%%%%%22.3-0.5-1-0.6-1.40.8------庫存10城可售面積10城存銷比周周46.3萬平米%-0.9%-997住房貸款加權(quán)平均利率個人住房貸款余額同比季季4.10.3%%-0.1-0.9-1.4-8.6開發(fā)資金累計同比國內(nèi)貸款累計同比個人按揭貸款累計同比自籌資金累計同比月月月月.-10.56.5-216%%%%.-0.54.0-2215.533.5-144I，居民端加杠桿意愿不足，預(yù)計6月社融或延續(xù)圖：地產(chǎn)板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：社融/M2/GDP同比情況6606686420502017-072018-072019-072020-072021-072022-07動經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)回升向好的一批政策措施、關(guān)于開展2023年新能源汽車下鄉(xiāng)活動、關(guān)于延續(xù)和優(yōu)化新能源汽車車輛購置稅減光伏：硅料價格本周止跌，電池反彈，靜待組件需求回升。產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上，據(jù)PVInfolink，本周多晶硅致密料現(xiàn)貨價格暫時止跌。本周廠家硅片成交價格高點基本等同于上周均價，跌價氛圍明顯平淡，整體價格逐步止穩(wěn)緩跌。主流尺寸電池片成交價格有小幅回彈。7月組件部分新簽訂單仍有延遲，組件排產(chǎn)仍有疑慮，但一線廠家排產(chǎn)已有上升趨勢，靜待需求回圖：汽車板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：光伏板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)指指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間2023/7/52023/7/52023/7/52023/7/52023/7/52023/7/52023/7/7價格多晶硅(致密料)EVA出廠價-揚子巴斯夫64.00.71.426.0元/千克元/片元/片元0.0%-8.8%汽車消費指數(shù)庫存預(yù)警指數(shù)二手車價格月月月74.254.06.2萬元-2.4-1.4-6.54.5產(chǎn)量乘用車產(chǎn)量半鋼胎開工率月周201.171.1萬輛%1.37.7周度日均零售同比周度日均批售同比銷量二手車交易量乘用車銷量新能源車銷量周周月月月-7.09.0.7205.1%%萬輛萬輛萬輛-16.013.0--產(chǎn)銷國內(nèi)裝機量同比太陽能電池產(chǎn)量同比逆變器出口金額同比光伏電池出口金額同比月月月月213.6%%%%-166.3-16.0-2.8-22.9----成本橡膠.期貨價玻璃.期貨價鋁.期貨價鋼鐵.期貨價日日日日9.0元/噸元/噸元/噸元/噸1.1%1.6%0.0%-0.7%開工率硅料：一線廠商單晶硅片：一線廠商單晶電池片：一線廠商組件：一線廠商月月月月95.866.576.547.2%%%%-4.3----旬旬旬日周周周周旬旬旬日周周周周周周月更新時間生豬養(yǎng)殖:收儲落地難改基本面壓力，預(yù)計豬價仍將磨底。截至7月7日當(dāng)周，外三元生豬現(xiàn)貨價周環(huán)比上行3%至14.1格盡快回歸至合理區(qū)間，國家發(fā)展改革委將會同有關(guān)方面啟動年內(nèi)第二批中央豬肉儲備收儲工作，并指導(dǎo)各地同步收氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：飲品板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)數(shù)值數(shù)值趨勢環(huán)比頻率指標(biāo)單位96089534060047521534.7-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%0.0%-0.5%0.0%0.0%-1.6%0.0%指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢價格外三元生豬價格生豬期貨價仔豬價格豬肉價格日日周周.11.434.820.1元/公斤萬元/噸元/公斤元/公斤養(yǎng)殖利潤-生豬周-337.9元/頭8.2-301.2養(yǎng)殖利潤-仔豬周-407.9元/頭-45.6-580.4養(yǎng)殖利潤生豬飼料價周3.5元/公斤豬料比價周4.1-0.1-0.7豬料比價平衡點周4.5更新時間更新時間地方酒批價指數(shù)同比元元元元元元元元元元元-0.5%-2.7%-2.9%-6.5%0.0%舍得-品味古井貢-古20生豬存欄同比生豬存欄同比月0.0%0.0-產(chǎn)量 產(chǎn)量能繁母豬存欄同比月1.6%-1.0-2023/5/31京東線上銷額月16.7億元12%65%36大中城市均價月4.2元/罐0%2%元元3.1大類行業(yè)近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)3年分位5年分位位數(shù))位數(shù))LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交額占比近一周變換手率(MA5)五近一周五年分位數(shù)化年分位變化消費社會服務(wù)紡織服飾輕工制造食品飲料美容護(hù)理醫(yī)藥生物農(nóng)林牧漁家用電器商貿(mào)零售12.08%83.229.9%57.5%77.2%40.58.3%41.2%30.9%3.429.7%36.9%26.1%-0.182.27%24.646.3%57.5%39.3%26.062.2%62.0%35.2%1.722.4%29.2%15.5%-0.130.67%29.877.9%86.7%49.7%28.154.5%45.9%22.9%1.914.0%44.7%23.2%3%-0.190.01%28.81.0%13.0%32.7%36.99.6%36.5%24.4%5.50.8%12.8%49.6%5%0.000.01%44.327.6%55.0%65.3%37.329.5%40.0%21.1%4.43.8%42.2%59.9%0.0%%-0.03-0.41%26.433.8%24.6%12.3%30.04.5%10.6%5.3%2.80.6%3.4%1.7%0.2%0.0028.948.0%44.6%28.3%41.335.9%43.3%35.5%2.74.7%13.8%9.7%4.1%0.2%0.20-2.53%14.321.9%26.5%25.6%24.835.3%42.4%21.1%2.510.8%12.3%17.4%%-0.3%-0.42-7.74%34.977.9%86.7%69.9%33.776.3%85.5%65.0%1.845.9%67.1%34.9%-0.04制造電力設(shè)備國防軍工汽車機械設(shè)備3.36%21.62.6%2.7%1.4%36.219.2%37.6%20.4%3.15.0%42.9%45.2%%-0.8%-0.2156.532.9%31.6%17.5%61.437.2%56.5%30.8%3.445.7%67.4%57.1%-0.6%%-0.23-0.55%31.157.2%74.3%86.2%39.671.8%82.7%67.9%2.348.1%68.8%51.6%0.7031.583.7%87.1%54.5%38.474.4%70.2%37.1%2.430.0%57.9%43.9%-0.5%0%-0.20周期有色金屬石油石化煤炭鋼鐵基礎(chǔ)化工建筑材料0.60%13.31.0%0.6%0.3%27.719.9%13.7%6.8%2.33.8%41.1%22.0%.2%0.750.01%14.463.5%51.2%25.5%34.977.6%80.4%44.3%1.321.3%23.9%11.9%2%%-0.03-0.180.18-0.04-0.01%6.23.2%1.9%1.0%5.97.1%4.3%2.1%1.225.3%50.4%31.9%%-0.45%23.698.8%99.3%60.1%19.996.8%98.0%56.1%1.017.6%28.9%26.2%%-2.65%16.940.4%34.5%17.2%26.435.3%25.1%12.5%2.02.4%35.2%17.5%17.892.2%95.1%53.6%24.282.7%78.0%38.9%1.40.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.12科技通信電子傳媒計算機1.37%34.755.0%36.7%21.4%56.175.6%76.1%47.5%2.587.2%68.5%46.0%-0.5%2%-0.240.06%45.175.3%78.6%47.8%46.780.1%82.7%44.1%2.818.0%26.0%13.0%9.5%45.1%0.2146.490.7%92.2%61.0%50.281.4%87.8%60.5%2.781.4%87.1%44.7%-0.6467.773.5%79.2%77.3%63.275.0%77.6%52.5%3.841.4%52.2%31.0%-0.2%3%-0.12金融地產(chǎn)房地產(chǎn)非銀金融建筑裝飾銀行96.99%14.293.1%95.9%63.8%20.477.6%86.3%56.3%0.84.9%3.0%1.5%0.280.46%14.140.2%27.2%21.6%21.946.2%29.4%26.3%1.15.6%3.3%1.7%0.000.02%9.755.9%46.0%25.7%25.662.8%77.3%53.3%0.943.3%28.7%14.3%2.5%2.7%-0.09-0.010.00%4.73.0%1.8%2.1%4.92.6%1.6%8.5%0.51.9%1.2%0.6%.7%0.0%公用交通運輸環(huán)保公用事業(yè)0.64%13.134.1%20.5%11.2%19.150.0%34.1%25.0%1.42.9%20.4%21.0%9%0.0%-0.04-0.07-0.270.05%21.957.2%47.8%23.8%24.364.1%65.1%32.4%1.55.4%3.4%1.7%0.0%8.1%0.03%25.063.2%77.9%73.0%24.773.7%73.3%40.4%1.767.8%79.4%41.3%.9%-0.7%47.1%景氣方向板塊近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)邊際上調(diào)房地產(chǎn)社會服務(wù)電力設(shè)備紡織服飾通信國防軍工輕工制造交通運輸有色金屬非銀金融電子環(huán)保公用事業(yè)建筑裝飾食品飲料石油石化美容護(hù)理銀行96.99%12.08%3.36%2.27%1.37%0.67%0.64%0.60%0.46%0.06%0.05%0.03%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.00%96.79%27.74%336%1.62%167%111.28%1.08%0.78%-0.31%0.680.68%-0.42%0.010.01%-0.03%-2.02%-0.02%-0.04%0.600.60%邊際下調(diào)煤炭醫(yī)藥生物鋼鐵汽車傳媒農(nóng)林牧漁計算機家用電器基礎(chǔ)化工機械設(shè)備建筑材料商貿(mào)零售-0.01%-0.41%-0.45%-0.55%-2.53%-2.65%-774%002%1.08%-0.95%1.96%-602%-2.80%-263%-3.73%-409%-4.39%652%0000Wind績增速(%)一致預(yù)期大小表示 23Q1防軍工 料交通媒食品飲料 建筑裝飾工制造機械設(shè)備公用事醫(yī)藥生物 有色金屬非銀金融保石油石化化工炭PB(LF)五年分位ROE(TTM)業(yè) 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0QROE(TTM)備公汽車炭通信屬石油石化基礎(chǔ)化工國防軍工備農(nóng)林牧漁用電器食品飲料非銀金融QROE(TTM)備公汽車炭通信屬石油石化基礎(chǔ)化工國防軍工備農(nóng)林牧漁用電器食品飲料非銀金融輕工制造建筑材料銀行子社會服務(wù)產(chǎn)建筑裝飾2010年以來分位PB0年以來分位%%%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70% M板板塊23Q1ROE(TTM)2010年以來分位23Q1相比22AROE(TTM)變動方向23Q1相比22AROE(TTM)變動通信電力設(shè)備有色金屬煤炭基礎(chǔ)化工國防軍工石油石化機械設(shè)備食品飲料鋼鐵家用電器美容護(hù)理農(nóng)林牧漁傳媒紡織服飾環(huán)保交通運輸輕工制造公用事業(yè)商貿(mào)零售建筑材料汽車非銀金融社會服務(wù)醫(yī)藥生物計算機建筑裝飾電子銀行房地產(chǎn)98.0%98.0%94.0%94.0%70.0%68.0%62.0%62.0%46.0%42.0%36.0%30.0%28.0%24.0%22.0%14.0%12.0%12.0%12.0%12.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%8.0%4.0%4.0%2.0%2.0%0.0%下行下行下行下行上行上行上行下行下行下行下行上行上行下行下行上行上行下行上行下行下行-0.2-1.2-2.8-2.0-3.0-0.3-1.0-0.5-0.5-1.6-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2--1.4--0.90.1-0.2-1.6-0.5-0.20.8%10.8%4.9%4.7%大類行業(yè)近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)PE(TTM,整體)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(TTM0.8%10.8%4.9%4.7%大類行業(yè)近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)PE(TTM,整體)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(TTM.中位數(shù))3年分位5年分位10年分位PB(LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交額占近一周換手率(MA5)五近一周比五年分位數(shù)變化年分位變化消費CXO5.95%19.50.4%0.2%0.1%30.90.0%0.0%0.0%3.30.1%0.1%0.0%19.1%0.0%21.3%-0.07家居用品1.71%24.015.0%14.0%7.0%21.711.5%7.1%3.7%2.313.0%45.7%22.8%13.0%-0.1%31.4%-0.48醫(yī)療器械0.60%21.137.6%22.6%11.3%28.58.3%5.1%2.7%2.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%-0.13化學(xué)制劑0.20%34.730.7%29.0%22.7%31.014.7%26.3%13.8%3.027.8%19.1%9.5%13.9%0.2%9.5%0.03小家電0.09%25.424.5%31.0%16.0%25.026.3%46.5%32.7%3.812.1%34.5%48.8%91.9%0.0%88.3%0.05食品加工0.06%23.80.3%0.3%0.4%33.823.7%25.9%13.8%3.00.3%0.2%0.1%7.8%0.1%10.2%0.26化妝品0.01%42.437.3%61.8%37.34.5%19.3%19.3%4.011.8%45.1%36.3%7.4%0.0%0.1%-0.130.00%28.51.8%17.9%50.4%30.51.9%30.7%28.1%7.11.4%17.4%55.4%2.8%-0.2%1.5%-0.13啤酒0.00%39.13.1%2.4%19.3%33.91.3%2.7%4.3%4.516.5%49.8%74.2%48.9%0.0%21.3%0.03白色家電11.628.4%21.1%15.5%18.023.7%14.5%7.6%2.415.1%9.1%4.6%8.5%-0.1%8.6%-0.24航空機場1335.781.2%88.7%94.4%53.159.6%75.2%84.2%3.597.1%98.2%98.9%46.6%0.1%41.5%0.03養(yǎng)殖業(yè)21.347.9%33.0%24.8%39.039.7%60.6%36.1%3.010.3%6.2%7.2%9.1%0.0%2.1%0.02酒店餐飲-2.90%230.759.8%75.8%88.0%98.575.0%84.6%89.7%3.260.0%76.0%46.8%83.1%0.0%69.3%-0.25醫(yī)療服務(wù)-5.69%89.529.7%50.8%84.940.4%51.6%56.8%6.61.0%38.6%57.7%20.0%0.0%1.8%-0.06家電零部件-27.01%30.639.1%30.7%32.659.6%69.3%45.7%3.75.7%41.2%53.7%93.9%0.0%80.9%-0.64制造光伏設(shè)備7.59%16.62.3%1.4%0.7%35.11.3%22.8%16.3%3.82.2%41.1%60.3%56.7%-0.5%20.7%-0.49電池2.05%26.43.2%4.7%2.3%29.78.3%5.1%3.3%3.71.6%30.5%25.6%27.9%-0.2%11.3%-0.09航空裝備1.65%53.027.2%13.6%58.417.9%47.1%26.3%3.912.8%47.6%47.0%21.0%-0.2%10.6%-0.31軍工電子1.60%44.633.3%31.0%15.4%45.020.5%20.1%12.8%3.812.3%44.6%36.6%69.9%-0.1%41.2%0.04工程機械1.41%27.582.7%86.3%64.7%34.5100.0%100.0%65.6%.933.3%39.1%65.7%24.4%0.0%23.2%-0.16電網(wǎng)設(shè)備0.68%18.22.5%1.7%0.8%40.189.7%85.8%56.3%2.444.4%66.6%37.9%54.2%0.0%45.4%-0.10機器人0.53%91.798.5%99.1%81.0%53.076.9%85.8%55.3%4.697.7%98.6%54.1%98.7%-0.2%97.5%-1.98乘用車0.00%27.123.9%54.2%77.2%17.55.8%23.2%15.8%2.535.7%61.3%75.2%78.7%0.5%83.1%0.41風(fēng)電設(shè)備-0.20%28.986.8%92.1%65.3%36.371.2%80.3%59.0%.91.2%38.0%26.3%62.7%0.1%42.5%0.09汽車零部件-4.65%30.876.7%86.0%77.4%42.083.3%89.8%71.9%2.238.0%62.7%43.3%100.0%1.3%97.1%0.79TMT游戲2.56%46.192.0%95.2%56.3%38.980.1%84.3%59.8%3.785.5%90.6%50.6%93.9%-0.9%91.3%-1.60消費電子31.747.7%44.5%22.2%38.062.8%52.9%27.9%3.131.8%20.3%10.1%39.0%-0.1%46.0%0.02半導(dǎo)體-0.07%55.443.8%36.2%18.1%58.942.9%34.9%19.5%4.22.9%28.6%43.5%36.5%0.4%18.6%0.15金融地產(chǎn)公用房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)53.76%13.893.1%95.9%63.9%20.281.4%88.6%59.5%0.85.5%3.3%1.6%10.6%0.1%80.9%0.30電力0.03%26.171.5%82.9%90.6%29.291.0%93.3%82.3%.771.1%82.6%59.3%76.9%-0.6%56.3%-0.26城商行0.00%4.60.1%0.1%4.6%5.11.3%0.8%0.5%0.50.1%0.0%0.0%2.7%0.0%4.9%0.00基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)0.00%8.759.9%53.9%28.9%13.835.9%37.3%19.8%0.868.2%47.0%23.4%47.1%0.0%50.2%-0.06證券-0.02%18.426.1%19.3%20.3%22.828.2%18.0%24.0%.14.4%4.5%2.2%0.4%0.0%5.5%-0.01物流-0.22%14.12.7%1.6%2.4%20.620.5%12.9%6.8%.40.3%0.2%0.1%0.4%-0.1%0.8%-0.08周期能源金屬9.70%6.90.3%0.2%0.1%6.95.8%3.5%2.3%2.40.3%0.2%0.1%21.4%0.0%6.9%0.14煤炭開采0.75%5.83.2%1.9%1.0%5.714.7%9.1%5.8%.228.9%56.1%35.0%36.0%0.0%37.0%-0.11裝修建材0.47%27.739.6%51.9%34.5%30.675.6%72.2%38.3%2.30.4%8.5%6.3%5.6%0.0%26.4%-0.32普鋼-0.82%24.895.5%97.3%65.1%18.194.2%96.5%70.6%0.79.9%11.9%13.6%1.8%0.0%24.2%0.15工業(yè)金屬15.331.8%19.1%9.5%21.610.3%6.3%3.3%.938.6%63.1%43.2%77.1%0.8%68.6%0.88貴金屬-4.04%40.152.8%52.2%38.1%33.532.7%26.3%16.5%2.840.2%56.2%40.4%1.8%0.0%24.2%0.15農(nóng)化制品-6.24%10.111.9%7.1%3.6%14.13.8%2.4%1.5%.90.4%36.9%18.9%12.1%0.0%2.8%-0.09平中信建投22統(tǒng)服務(wù)器金融科技0.350.180.360.481.161.020.832.533.880.300.391.151.46918%0.030.250.840.83數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分22年實際增速統(tǒng)服務(wù)器金融科技0.350.180.360.481.161.020.832.533.880.300.391.151.46918%0.030.250.840.83數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分22年實際增速23年預(yù)測增速(Wind一致預(yù)期)(2023E)(2023E)上游網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全顯示面板消費電子半導(dǎo)體材料操作系統(tǒng)服務(wù)器計算機設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備汽車電子半導(dǎo)體分立器件光纖光纜基站光模塊半導(dǎo)體封測-77%-83%-15% 3% 37% % 4%-12% 25%9%-13%4% -2% 33%-45%64%68%48%50%47%44%46%34%39%32%29%22%22%8%47.021.622.735.723.257.934.027.636.024.223.356.630.60.520.730.620.790.710.590.54中游數(shù)據(jù)安全云計算工業(yè)軟件運營商-47%-39%-20% -4%9%156%67%47%11%47.446.339.953.715.30.60下游游戲在線教育數(shù)字政府金融科技數(shù)字媒體智能汽車智能物流智能電網(wǎng)-97% 656% -59%-11%-23%6%42%162%78%48%49%24%22%19%27.341.044.230.032.620.011.815.90.570.620.670.53.0.0.00%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%70.330.230.480.790.830.530.6170.330.230.480.790.830.530.61(2023E)(2023E)儲能逆變器風(fēng)電設(shè)備消費電子光伏加工設(shè)備電池組件半導(dǎo)體材料半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備動力電池智能汽車新能源整車創(chuàng)新藥新材料智能電網(wǎng)硅料硅片8%23.3.923.2.733.6.022.936.036.921.622.322.723.322.6.68.70.620.65 0.77 0.88 0.72 1.19 1.06 1.1568%63%53%54%52%48%46%45%41%37%35%30%26%23%21%19%14%-3%.0新能源整車半光伏加工設(shè)備創(chuàng)新藥光伏加工設(shè)備10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%手率：無人駕駛表現(xiàn)較好類別指數(shù)名稱本周漲跌幅近1月漲跌幅PS(TTM)三年分位PE(TTM)三年分位近一周變化換手率(MA5近一周變化五年分位汽車無無人駕駛熱管理10.7%10.7%1.9%4.2%-1.8%1.410.0%42.119.9%78.1%0.801.8 38.0%50.239.2%39.2%56.1%0.02新能源發(fā)電特高壓特高壓儲能光伏逆變器光伏屋頂HJT電池TOPcon電池-0.5%4.8%-0.5%4.3%1.622.3%17.92.7%12.5%0.022.42.5%30.12.5%17.0%0.075.0%585.0%58%5.9%6.9%-0.6%--1.9%--2.7%--4.2%4.421.1%37.74.2%41.5%0.281.71.5%15.51.5%1.1%-%13.71.8%4.9%-0.472.13.0%30.13.0%18.2%0.41半導(dǎo)體第三代半導(dǎo)第三代半導(dǎo)體IGBT先進(jìn)封裝EDA半導(dǎo)體材料半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備5.2%5.2%2.6%2.3%1.5%4.31.4%69.842.9%0.651.83.3%28.83.4%11.6%0.07-0.4%--0.4%1.963.8881.6%41.4%-0.342.2%0.7%2.2%0.7%-3.2%-0.8%--1.2%--4.8%1.7887.0%41.574.274.2%67.2%-0.553.61.4%36.14.5%20.7%0.387.119.1%49.110.7%37.1%-0.20新消費預(yù)預(yù)制菜醫(yī)美CRO培育鉆石0.3%-0.3%1.00.5%50.956.6%56.6%9.3%0.190.7%-6.5%3.9%0.7%-6.5%3.9%-1.4%--1.5%--2.9%3.88.4%50.019.6%8.3%-0.105.00.1%20.90.1%6.6%-%40.77.1%2.8%-0.16科技元元宇宙華為鴻蒙數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)信創(chuàng)機器視覺東數(shù)西算6G數(shù)字貨幣工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)AIGC云計算-1.2%-1.5%-1.6%-1.8%-1.9%-2.7%-2.8%0-1.2%-1.5%-1.6%-1.8%-1.9%-2.7%-2.8%-0.4%-0.4%-0.9%-0.9%08%4.6%35%13.1%-2.4%41%-8.0%-2.9%--2.9%2.5550.8%52.392.5%59.0%-0.091.7 37.7%333.3559.2%85.4%0.262.027.2442.4%34.5%-0.152.540.2442.8%57.9%-%60.5%35.7442.4%46.9%0.313.396.7%107.6887.2%82.3%-0.362.8668.3%45.3550.5%--0.273.121.8%179.063.8%63.8%19.5%-0.271.39% 42.9%24.266.1%66.1%65.0%-0.262.118.4%0.00.0%63.4%-0.912.573.973.9%79.065.4%65.4%76.4%-0.60其他中中字頭央企大飛機機器人1.1%7.9%11.7%0.0%1.1%7.9%11.7%--1.5%--2.7%0.793.7%10.965.8%65.8%60.9%-0.023.125.8%52.420.6%16.9%-0.131.7441.0%32.072.272.2%95.1%-0.07表現(xiàn)：本周普遍下跌本周漲跌幅近1月漲跌幅近3月漲跌幅PE(TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位標(biāo)普500道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)上證指數(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指英國富時100德國DAX日經(jīng)225恒生指數(shù)法國CAC40韓國綜合指數(shù)-1.162.69-1.960.48-0.922.89-0.