宏觀經濟學-曼昆chap06課件

UnemploymentCHAPTER6UnemploymentInthischapter,youwilllearn……aboutthenaturalrateofunemployment:whatitmeanswhatcausesitunderstandingitsbehaviorintherealworldCHAPTER6UnemploymentNaturalrateofunemploymentNaturalrateofunemployment:

Theaveragerateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheeconomyfluctuates.Inarecession,theactualunemploymentraterisesabovethenaturalrate.Inaboom,theactualunemploymentratefallsbelowthenaturalrate.CHAPTER6UnemploymentActualandnaturalratesofunemploymentintheU.S.,1960-2006Percentoflaborforce0246810121960196519701975198019851990199520002005UnemploymentrateNaturalrateofunemploymentCHAPTER6UnemploymentAfirstmodelofthenaturalrateNotation:

L=#ofworkersinlaborforce

E=#ofemployedworkers U=#ofunemployed U/L=unemploymentrateCHAPTER6UnemploymentAssumptions:1. Lisexogenouslyfixed.2. Duringanygivenmonth,

s=fractionofemployedworkers

thatbecomeseparatedfromtheirjobs

siscalledtherateofjobseparations

f

=fractionofunemployedworkers

thatfindjobs

f

iscalledtherateofjobfinding

sandf

areexogenousCHAPTER6UnemploymentThetransitionsbetweenemploymentandunemploymentEmployedUnemployedsEfUCHAPTER6UnemploymentThesteadystateconditionDefinition:thelabormarketisin

steadystate,orlong-runequilibrium,

iftheunemploymentrateisconstant.Thesteady-stateconditionis:s

E

=

fU#ofemployedpeoplewholoseorleavetheirjobs#ofunemployedpeoplewhofindjobsCHAPTER6UnemploymentFindingthe“equilibrium”Urate

fU =

s

E

=

s

(L–

U)

=

s

L–

s

USolveforU/L:

(f+s)

U

=s

Lso,CHAPTER6UnemploymentExample:Eachmonth,1%ofemployedworkerslosetheirjobs

(s=0.01)19%ofunemployedworkersfindjobs

(f=0.19)Findthenaturalrateofunemployment:CHAPTER6UnemploymentPolicyimplicationApolicywillreducethenaturalrateofunemploymentonlyifitlowerssorincreasesf.CHAPTER6UnemploymentWhyisthereunemployment?Ifjobfindingwereinstantaneous(f=1),

thenallspellsofunemploymentwouldbebrief,andthenaturalratewouldbenearzero.Therearetworeasonswhyf<1:

1.

jobsearch

2.

wagerigidityCHAPTER6UnemploymentJobsearch&frictionalunemploymentfrictionalunemployment:causedbythetime

ittakesworkerstosearchforajoboccursevenwhenwagesareflexibleandthereareenoughjobstogoaroundoccursbecauseworkershavedifferentabilities,preferencesjobshavedifferentskillrequirementsgeographicmobilityofworkersnotinstantaneousflowofinformationaboutvacanciesandjobcandidatesisimperfectCHAPTER6UnemploymentSectoralshiftsdef:Changesinthecompositionofdemandamongindustriesorregions.example:Technologicalchange

morejobsrepairingcomputers,

fewerjobsrepairingtypewritersexample:Anewinternationaltradeagreement

labordemandincreasesinexportsectors,decreasesinimport-competingsectorsResult:frictionalunemploymentCHAPTER6UnemploymentCASESTUDY:

StructuralchangeoverthelongrunCHAPTER6UnemploymentMoreexamplesofsectoralshiftsLate1800s:declineofagriculture,

increaseinmanufacturingLate1900s:relativedeclineofmanufacturing,increaseinservicesector1970s:energycrisiscausedashiftindemandawayfromgasguzzlerstowardsmallercars.Inourdynamiceconomy,

smallersectoralshiftsoccurfrequently,contributingtofrictionalunemployment.CHAPTER6UnemploymentPublicpolicyandjobsearchGovtprogramsaffectingunemploymentGovtemploymentagencies:

disseminateinfoaboutjobopeningstobettermatchworkers&jobs.Publicjobtrainingprograms:

helpworkersdisplacedfromdecliningindustriesgetskillsneededforjobsingrowingindustries.CHAPTER6UnemploymentUnemploymentinsurance(UI)UIpayspartofaworker’sformerwagesforalimitedtimeafterlosinghis/herjob.UIincreasessearchunemployment,

becauseitreducestheopportunitycostofbeingunemployedtheurgencyoffindingworkfStudies:ThelongeraworkeriseligibleforUI,

thelongerthedurationoftheaveragespellofunemployment.CHAPTER6UnemploymentByallowingworkersmoretimetosearch, UImayleadtobettermatchesbetween

jobsandworkers, whichwouldleadtogreaterproductivityandhigherincomes.BenefitsofUICHAPTER6UnemploymentWhyisthereunemployment?Tworeasonswhyf<1:1.

jobsearch2.

wagerigidityDONE

Next

Thenaturalrateofunemployment:CHAPTER6UnemploymentUnemploymentfromrealwagerigidityLaborRealwageSupplyDemandUnemploymentRigid

real

wageAmountoflaborwillingtoworkAmountof

laborhiredIfrealwageisstuckaboveitseq’mlevel,thentherearen’tenoughjobstogoaround.CHAPTER6UnemploymentUnemploymentfromrealwagerigidityThen,firmsmustrationthescarcejobsamongworkers.Structuralunemployment:Theunemploymentresultingfromrealwagerigidityand

jobrationing.Ifrealwageisstuckaboveitseq’mlevel,thentherearen’tenoughjobstogoaround.CHAPTER6UnemploymentReasonsforwagerigidity1. Minimumwagelaws2. Laborunions3. EfficiencywagesCHAPTER6Unemployment1.TheminimumwageThemin.wagemayexceedtheeq’mwage

ofunskilledworkers,especiallyteenagers.Studies:a10%increaseinmin.wage

reducesteenemploymentby1-3%But,themin.wagecannotexplainthe

majorityofthenaturalrateofunemployment,

asmostworkers’wagesarewellabove

themin.wage.CHAPTER6Unemployment2.LaborunionsUnionsexercisemonopolypowertosecurehigherwagesfortheirmembers.Whentheunionwageexceedstheeq’mwage,unemploymentresults.Insiders:Employedunionworkerswhoseinterestistokeepwageshigh.Outsiders:Unemployednon-unionworkerswhoprefereq’mwages,sotherewouldbeenoughjobsforthem.105,508Privatesector(total)20,381Government(total)14,045Healthcare3,312Education10,951Professionalservices6,304Finance,insurance4,379Transportation14,973Retailtrade15,518Manufacturing600Mining122.3121.7115.1112.790.690.7129.2114.0107.8113.7156.98.5%40.5815.43.12.124.45.813.79.513.88,053ConstructionwageratioU%oftotal#employed(1000s)industrywageratio=100(unionwage)/(nonunionwage)slide25Unionmembershipandwageratiosbyindustry,2005CHAPTER6Unemployment3.EfficiencywagetheoryTheoriesinwhichhigherwagesincreaseworkerproductivityby:attractinghigherqualityjobapplicantsincreasingworkereffort,reducing“shirking”reducingturnover,whichiscostlytofirmsimprovinghealthofworkers

(indevelopingcountries)Firmswillinglypayabove-equilibriumwagestoraiseproductivity.Result:structuralunemployment.CHAPTER6UnemploymentQuestionfordiscussion:Usethematerialwe’vejustcoveredtocomeupwithapolicyorpolicies

totrytoreducethenaturalrateofunemployment.Notewhetheryourpolicytargetsfrictionalorstructuralunemployment.CHAPTER6UnemploymentThedurationofU.S.unemployment,averageover1/1990-5/2006#ofweeksunemployed#ofunemployedpersons

as%oftotal

#ofunemployedamountoftimetheseworkersspentunemployed

as%oftotaltimeallworkersspentunemployed1-438%7.2%5-1431%22.3%15ormore31%70.5%CHAPTER6UnemploymentThedurationofunemploymentThedata:Morespellsofunemploymentareshort-termthanmedium-termorlong-term.Yet,mostofthetotaltimespentunemployedisattributabletothelong-termunemployed.Thislong-termunemploymentisprobablystructuraland/orduetosectoralshiftsamongvastlydifferentindustries.Knowingthisisimportantbecauseitcanhelpuscraftpoliciesthataremorelikelytowork.CHAPTER6UnemploymentTREND:Thenaturalraterisesduring1960-1984,thenfallsduring1985-2006CHAPTER6UnemploymentEXPLAININGTHETREND:

Theminimumwage0123456789195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005Dollarsperhourminimumwageincurrentdollarsminimumwagein2006dollarsThetrendintherealminimumwageissimilartothatofthenaturalrateofunemployment.CHAPTER6UnemploymentEXPLAININGTHETREND:

UnionmembershipSincetheearly1980s,thenaturalrateofunemploy-mentandunionmembershiphavebothfallen.But,from1950s

toabout1980,

thenaturalraterosewhileunionmembershipfell.Unionmembership

selectedyearsyearpercentoflaborforce193012%194535%195435%197027%198320.1%200512.5%CHAPTER6UnemploymentEXPLAININGTHETREND:

SectoralshiftsPriceperbarrelofoil,

in2006dollarsFrommid1980stoearly2000s,oilpriceslessvolatile,

sofewersectoralshifts.CHAPTER6UnemploymentEXPLAININGTHETREND:

Demographics1970s:

TheBabyBoomerswereyoung.

Youngworkerschangejobsmorefrequently(highvalueofs).Late1980sthroughtoday:

BabyBoomersaged.Middle-agedworkerschangejobslessoften(lows).

slide35UnemploymentinEurope,1960-2005PercentoflaborforceItalyGermanyFranceU.K.0369121960196519701975198019851990199520002005CHAPTER6UnemploymentTheriseinEuropeanunemploymentShock

Technologicalprogresshasshiftedlabordemandfromunskilledtoskilledworkersinrecentdecades.EffectinUnitedStates

Anincreaseinthe“skillpremium”–thewagegapbetweenskilledandunskilledworkers.EffectinEurope

Higherunemployment,duetogenerousgovtbenefitsforunemployedworkersandstrongunionpresence.CHAPTER6UnemploymentPercentofworkerscoveredbycollectivebargainingUnitedStates18%UnitedKingdom47Switzerland53Spain68Sweden83Germany90France92Austria98ChapterSummary1. Thenaturalrateofunemploymentthelong-runavera