企業(yè)項(xiàng)目管理的基本含義(-)課件

PMP考前培訓(xùn)

什么是項(xiàng)目？PMBOK1.2

具體目標(biāo)：明確定義、現(xiàn)實(shí)可行的目標(biāo)(clearlydefinedrealisticobjectives)。臨時(shí)性或一次性（Temporary）：明確的開始與結(jié)束。獨(dú)特性（Unique）：創(chuàng)造獨(dú)特的產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)或結(jié)果。相關(guān)的活動(dòng)并消耗資源(Interrelatedactivitiesandconsumeresources)。問題：項(xiàng)目的4個(gè)特征中最重要的2個(gè)是什么？項(xiàng)目與日常運(yùn)營的共性與區(qū)別？項(xiàng)目有始有終(Temporary)

開始和結(jié)束獨(dú)特的(Unique)

產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)由人來實(shí)施受制于有限的資源需要計(jì)劃、實(shí)施和控制運(yùn)營重復(fù)的(repetive)進(jìn)行的(ongoing)項(xiàng)目與運(yùn)營（Operation）的關(guān)系漸進(jìn)細(xì)化（ProgressiveElaboration）PMBOK1.2.3

是臨時(shí)性與獨(dú)特性的綜合。漸進(jìn)：按步驟進(jìn)行，穩(wěn)步增加細(xì)化：仔細(xì)地將內(nèi)容的細(xì)節(jié)全面展開。問題：以下哪一個(gè)不能被漸進(jìn)細(xì)化？

A：范圍

B：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

C：項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)品

D：項(xiàng)目服務(wù)質(zhì)量(Quality,Objective,requirements)成本(Cost,Budget)時(shí)間(Time,Schedule)牽一發(fā)而動(dòng)全身范圍風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目的三個(gè)約束條件項(xiàng)目管理的定義什么是項(xiàng)目管理通過使用知識(shí)、技能、工具和方法來組織、計(jì)劃、實(shí)施并監(jiān)控項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)，使之滿足項(xiàng)目需要。源：PMBOK2000項(xiàng)目管理的特點(diǎn)過程、管理系統(tǒng)、方法的集合；有效的計(jì)劃和控制；是對(duì)項(xiàng)目、項(xiàng)目群、項(xiàng)目組合的管理；項(xiàng)目管理既是管理科學(xué)，也是管理藝術(shù)。子項(xiàng)目（Subproject）PMBOK1.5

項(xiàng)目中某一部分，在一定水平上是獨(dú)立運(yùn)作的時(shí)候，就稱之為“子項(xiàng)目”?？蓛?nèi)：Projectteam.可外：Subcontractor.以一個(gè)單獨(dú)階段或項(xiàng)目過程為基礎(chǔ)。例如：根據(jù)過程分：實(shí)施人員技能分：工種技術(shù)內(nèi)容分：程序自動(dòng)測(cè)試。大型項(xiàng)目/項(xiàng)目群（program）PMBOK1.5一組相關(guān)項(xiàng)目。有Ongoingoperations運(yùn)維例如：飛機(jī)生產(chǎn)出版報(bào)刊雜志單一項(xiàng)目就是項(xiàng)目群的子項(xiàng)目。在很多情況下可以互用。項(xiàng)目組合管理（PortfolioManagement）公司戰(zhàn)略與可用資源有機(jī)結(jié)合的一種投資管理戰(zhàn)略。(InvestmentManagementStrategycoordinatingorganization’sstrategicandavailableresources)選擇和支持某些產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)線項(xiàng)目或大型項(xiàng)目，通過這些項(xiàng)目把公司戰(zhàn)略與資源聯(lián)系在一起。(Selectionandsupportofspecificproductlineprojectsandprogramsthatlinktheorganizationsstrategicplan,investments)項(xiàng)目管理辦公室（PMO）負(fù)責(zé)協(xié)調(diào)許多項(xiàng)目及不同產(chǎn)品交織一起的大型項(xiàng)目。可作為組織的一個(gè)部門。設(shè)立標(biāo)準(zhǔn)并主要負(fù)責(zé)以下事物：采購、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、WBSDictionary績效評(píng)估資源管理題外話：

CAPM PMP Auto CAQ SoftwareDevelopment PMP+3500Hr+75Questions PMO項(xiàng)目生命周期概念（Concept）開發(fā)（Development）實(shí)施（Implementation）結(jié)束（Termination）問題：沖突在項(xiàng)目生命周期中最多的階段是？沖突在項(xiàng)目生命周期中次多的階段是？必須是4個(gè)階段嗎？時(shí)間人員風(fēng)險(xiǎn)&機(jī)會(huì)開始結(jié)束項(xiàng)目干系人對(duì)項(xiàng)目的影響隨著時(shí)間的推移變得越來越微弱。成功的概率隨著時(shí)間的推移越來越大每個(gè)階段的結(jié)束以預(yù)先定義的可交付成果為標(biāo)志風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大影響時(shí)段項(xiàng)目生命周期的特性(I)成本項(xiàng)目生命周期的需要注意其他的方面PhaseendReview:又叫Phaseexits,Stagegates,Killpoints繼續(xù)嗎？Go/nogo.CorrectiveActionLessonslearned.區(qū)別projectlifecycle和productlifecycle:項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理溝通方向及關(guān)系項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理贊助人老板項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)同事其他PM顧客供應(yīng)商職能部門經(jīng)理媒體政府大眾強(qiáng)矩陣型平衡矩陣弱矩陣型全時(shí)全時(shí)部分時(shí)間部分時(shí)間部分時(shí)間項(xiàng)目管理行政人員項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理/計(jì)劃經(jīng)理項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理/計(jì)劃經(jīng)理項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理/項(xiàng)目主任PM協(xié)調(diào)員/項(xiàng)目主管PM協(xié)調(diào)員/項(xiàng)目主管項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理的頭銜全時(shí)全時(shí)全時(shí)部分時(shí)間部分時(shí)間項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理85-100%50-95%15-60%0-25%幾乎沒有項(xiàng)目全時(shí)人員%大到幾乎全權(quán)中等到大小到中等有限很少或沒有項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理的權(quán)威項(xiàng)目型組織矩陣型組織職能型組織組織類型項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目組織結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)項(xiàng)目的影響項(xiàng)目管理5個(gè)過程決定立項(xiàng)依照計(jì)劃執(zhí)行執(zhí)行情況與計(jì)劃比較調(diào)整執(zhí)行情況計(jì)劃提供控制基線根據(jù)變更調(diào)整計(jì)劃基本思路貫穿在項(xiàng)目的每一個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)制約因素ConstrainsPMBOK4.1.1.4Applicablerestrictionaffecttheperformanceoftheproject.limitteam’soptiononscope,staffing,schedule.

問題:

我們能改變制約因素嗎?

我們能回避制約因素嗎?

制約因素的幾個(gè)可能的來源是什么?假設(shè)(Assumptions)

PMBOK4.1.1.5

forplanningpurposeconsideredtobeTrue,RealorCertainProjectteamfrequentlyIdentify,Document,andValidateassumptionsaspartofPlanningProcess.項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃與項(xiàng)目績效基線

PMBOK4.1.3.1

項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃：

Formal,approveddocumentusedtomanageprojectexecution.

Changeovertime.Includesalot:…

項(xiàng)目績效基線：

Scope

TimeCost

Changedupontheapprovedchangesonscopeofwork/deliverable.計(jì)劃實(shí)施的工具和技術(shù)PMBOK4.2.2

一般管理技術(shù)。產(chǎn)品技能和知識(shí)。（resourceplanningandstaffacquisition）工作授權(quán)體系（Workauthorizationsystem）批準(zhǔn)項(xiàng)目工作的一個(gè)正式程序，用來確保：按照恰當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)間、順序完成工作。狀態(tài)評(píng)審會(huì)

PMIS

組織程序計(jì)劃實(shí)施--工作結(jié)果WorkResult

PMBOK4.2.3.1

定義：為完成項(xiàng)目所執(zhí)行活動(dòng)的各種結(jié)果。（Outcomesofactivitiesperformedtoaccomplishtheproject.）提供如下信息：

Deliverables–哪個(gè)完成，哪個(gè)沒有

Qualitystandard–滿足程度如何

Costincurred/Committed(源自績效報(bào)告)CanbeTangibleorIntangible,ButalwaysMeasurable.

計(jì)劃實(shí)施—變更請(qǐng)求ChangeRequest

PMBOK4.2.3.2

通常在項(xiàng)目工作完成時(shí)被識(shí)別。例如:對(duì)范圍、成本、進(jìn)度的變更申請(qǐng)。多種形式：oral/written,direct/indirect,externally/internallyinitiated,legal/optional

但是，必須是正式的（Formal）集成變更控制

PMBOK4.3

(IntegratedChangeControls)

關(guān)心的是：對(duì)引起變更的因素施加影響，以保證這些變更是征得同意的。確定變更已經(jīng)發(fā)生。當(dāng)變更實(shí)際發(fā)生時(shí)進(jìn)行管理。注意：以上3條適用于具體變更控制過程，如：Scope,cost,time…

要做的是：維護(hù)performancemeasurementbaseline完整性確保productscope的變更在Projectscope中反映協(xié)調(diào)各知識(shí)領(lǐng)域的變更。通過：拒絕新的變更。批準(zhǔn)變更并修訂項(xiàng)目基線。變更控制系統(tǒng)

PMBOK4.3.2.1

(ChangeControlSystem)

由以下內(nèi)容組成：正式、文檔化的程序。包括正式項(xiàng)目文件變更的步驟。規(guī)定如何對(duì)項(xiàng)目績效進(jìn)行監(jiān)督和評(píng)估。包括：文書工作（Paperwork）跟蹤制度和流程（Trackingsystemsandprocesses）授權(quán)變更所需的批準(zhǔn)級(jí)別（Approvallevelnecessaryforauthorizingchanges）控制小組（CCB,ERB,TRB,TAB）“自動(dòng)”批準(zhǔn)變更配置管理PMBOK4.3.2.1

（ConfigurationManagement）

任何文檔化的程序，用于對(duì)以下方面進(jìn)行技術(shù)和行政的指揮與監(jiān)督：識(shí)別工作項(xiàng)或系統(tǒng)的物理特性和功能特征，并形成文檔?？刂七@些特征的任何變更。記錄并報(bào)告這些變更及實(shí)施狀態(tài)。審計(jì)這些工作項(xiàng)和系統(tǒng)以證實(shí)其與需求一致。很多領(lǐng)域是變更控制系統(tǒng)的子集。也可能指對(duì)變更進(jìn)行的任何系統(tǒng)的管理。不能“自動(dòng)”批準(zhǔn)變更產(chǎn)品描述ProductDescriptionPMBOK5.1.1.1

把項(xiàng)目將要?jiǎng)?chuàng)造的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)的特征編制成文檔。應(yīng)將產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)與商業(yè)需求或其他導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生原因之間的關(guān)系編制成文檔?？梢噪S項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)行漸進(jìn)細(xì)化。在項(xiàng)目初期,belessdetail/highlevel,然后…

但是,又要detailedenoughforprojectplanning當(dāng)Seller按照與Buyer訂立的Contract執(zhí)行時(shí)，最初的產(chǎn)品描述一般由Buyer提供。項(xiàng)目選擇方法PMBOK5.1.2.1

ProjectSelectionMethod

方法：效益測(cè)量法（Benefitmeasurementmethods）EconomicModel,scoringmodel,…約束優(yōu)化法（Constrainedoptimizationmethods)MathematicalModel,…決策模型DecisionModel:GeneralTechniques(decisiontrees,forcedchoice…)SpecificTechniques(AnalyticHierarchyProcess,LogicalFrameworkAnalysis,…)ApplycomplexprojectselectioncriteriainaSophisticatedmodeseparateprojectphase(FeasibilityStudyphase)

DecisionModel贏利能力的計(jì)算（ProfitabilityCalculation）投資報(bào)酬率(ROI)=Operatingincome/Investment現(xiàn)值(PV)=FV/(1+r)n凈現(xiàn)值(NPV)內(nèi)部收益率(IRR)

使投資現(xiàn)值之和等于收入現(xiàn)值之和的折現(xiàn)率?；厥掌冢≒aybackperiod）項(xiàng)目章程ProjectCharter

PMBOK5.1.3.1

定義：Adocumentthatformallyauthorizesaproject.

內(nèi)容：Officiallyestablishestheproject.Assigntheprojectmanagerandauthorizestheuseoforganization’sresourcestoaccomplishprojectactivities.Providesageneraldescriptionofprojectobjectiveandbusinessreasonforproject.問題：以下哪個(gè)是銷售方（seller）的項(xiàng)目章程？Contract 3.StatementofrequirementScopestatement 4.StatementofObjective項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理的指派

PMBOK5.1.3.2

ProjectManager’sAssignment

項(xiàng)目可行，越早越好。最遲不得晚于Execution.Preferable早于項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃編制完成前。問題：以上哪個(gè)最好？Oneansweringprinciple,onlychoosethebestfitanswer.

范圍說明ScopeStatement

PMBOK5.1.3.1

ProvidesadocumentedbasisforMakingfutureprojectdecisionConfirmingordevelopingcommonunderstandingofprojectscopeamongthestakeholders.Willberevisedorrefinedtoreflectapprovedscopechanges.Includesorreferenceto:項(xiàng)目論證（Projectjustification）–Businessneeds;abasisfortradeoffs.Project’sproduct–productdescription(5.1.1.1)Projectdeliverables–alistofsummarylevelSub-products.Projectobjectives–quantifiablecriteriatomeasuresuccess atleast:Cost Schedule QualitySMARTObjectiveInvolvessubdividingthemajorprojectdeliverablesorsub-deliverables smaller moremanageableunits Untilsufficientdetaileddefineddeliverablesto SupportdevelopingActivity.分解Decomposition

PMBOK5.2.2.2

Step1:識(shí)別主要可交付成果IdentifymajordeliverablesStep2:DecideifadequatecostanddurationestimatecanbedevelopedStep3:Identifyconstituentcomponents(組成元素)Step4:Verifythecorrectness工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)WBS

PMBOK5.3.3.1

面向可交付成果而對(duì)項(xiàng)目元素的分組，它組織并定義了整個(gè)項(xiàng)目范圍。Deliverable-oriented,Notactivityoriented.WorknotinWBSisoutsidescopeofproject.UniqueidentifierCodeofaccountWorkpackageLowestlevelitemofWBS

CanbedecomposedinaSubprojectWBS. somebooks:80hours.WBSdictionary:workcomponentdescriptions. typicallyinclude:workpackage,scheduledates, Costbudget,staffassignment…

工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)與其他結(jié)構(gòu)的區(qū)別

PMBOK5.3.3.1

CWBS(ContractualWBS)：合同工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)

定義賣方提供給買方報(bào)告的層次，不如WBS詳細(xì)。OBS(Organizationbreakdownstructure)：組織分解結(jié)構(gòu)

顯示工作被分配到組織單元。RBS(Resourcebreakdownstructure)：資源分解結(jié)構(gòu)

OBS的一種變異，將工作元素分配到個(gè)人。BOM(BillofMaterial)：材料清單

制造產(chǎn)品所需零部件等的分級(jí)層次。PBS(ProjectbreakdownStructure)：項(xiàng)目分解結(jié)構(gòu) 即WBS，用于某些將BOM稱為WBS的領(lǐng)域。范圍核實(shí)ScopeVerificationPMBOK5.4

是項(xiàng)目干系人正式接受（FormalAcceptance）項(xiàng)目的過程。需要審查Deliverables和Workresults，以確保正確圓滿完成。項(xiàng)目提前終止，則應(yīng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目完成程度建立文檔。注意區(qū)別：范圍核實(shí)與質(zhì)量控制。范圍核實(shí)：關(guān)心工作結(jié)果的“接受Acceptance”質(zhì)量控制：關(guān)心工作結(jié)果的“正確性Correctness”Inspection=Review,productreviews,audits,walkthrough變更申請(qǐng)

ChangeRequest

PMBOK5.5.1.3

多種形式：oral/written,direct/indirect,externally/internallyinitiated,legal/optional但是，必須是正式的（Formal）引起變更申請(qǐng)的原因：外部事件定義Productscope時(shí)的錯(cuò)誤或遺漏（error/omission）定義Projectscope時(shí)的錯(cuò)誤或遺漏（error/omission）Value-addingchange(尤其在Optional時(shí))Riskcontingencyplanorworkaroundplan.(11.6.3.3)ActivityDefinition活動(dòng)定義PMBOK6.1分解(Decomposition6.1.2.1)：將工作包細(xì)分為：更小、更易于管理的活動(dòng)（Activity）。與范圍定義中分解的區(qū)別: Output不同：deliverable/activity.活動(dòng)清單（6.1.3.1）項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行的所有活動(dòng)。WBS的延伸。每個(gè)活動(dòng)要有描述。WBS更新（6.1.3.3）。又叫精細(xì)化Refinement.Dependencies依賴關(guān)系PMBOK6.2Mandatory強(qiáng)制Ofteninvolvephysicalortechnologicallimitations(basedonthenatureofworkbeingdone)也叫硬邏輯，硬依賴關(guān)系。

Discretionary任意

Bestpractice

軟邏輯SoftLogic:desirableandcustomary(basedonexperience)

優(yōu)先Preferential:preferredormandatedbyacustomer(also,needoftheprojectsponsor)ExternalProjectactivitywithnonprojectactivity.前導(dǎo)圖法

PMBOK6.2.2.1

PrecedenceDiagrammingMethodAON(ActivityonNode):Node=activity,Arrow=dependencies

OnetimeestimateLeadandLagFourrelationships:FinishtoStartFinishtoFinishStarttoStartStarttoFinishTASK1TASK2TASK1TASK2TASK1TASK2TASK1TASK2ESEFLSLFESEFLSLF箭線圖法PMBOK6.2.2.2

ArrowDiagrammingMethodAOA(ActivityonArrow)：雙代號(hào)網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖，活動(dòng)在箭線上。有虛擬活動(dòng)DummyActivity:一般用虛線表示,0duration.NoLagOnerelationship:FinishtostartS1234EABCDEFG計(jì)劃評(píng)審技術(shù)PERT

PMBOK6.4.2.1Threetimeestimate悲觀值Pessimistic最可能值MostLikely樂觀值OptimisticWeightedAverage=(Optimistic+4*Mostlikely+Pessimistic)/6Standarddeviation(標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差)=(Pessimistic-Optimistic)/6BetaDistributionMostLikelyPERTWeightedAverage關(guān)鍵路徑法CPM

PMBOK6.4.2.1Onetimeestimate–MostlikelyCalculateforwardpass&backwardpassFloat/Slack時(shí)差Freefloat=EarlyFinish-Earlystartofsuccessoractivity (不影響任何緊隨活動(dòng)的ES。)TotalFloat=Earlyfinish–Latefinish(不影響項(xiàng)目完工日期。)CriticalPathLongestShortestZero條件圖法PMBOK6.2.2.3

ConditionalDiagrammingMethod

GERT：圖形評(píng)審技術(shù)允許回路（LOOP，如：重復(fù)多次進(jìn)行一項(xiàng)測(cè)試）或條件分枝（Conditionalbranches，如：只有當(dāng)檢測(cè)出錯(cuò)誤時(shí)才進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)更新）的存在，這是PDM和ADM所不允許的。ConditionalandprobabilistictreatmentSystemDynamicsModels：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)模型工期=7TaskAESEFLSLF工期=6TaskCESEFLSLF工期=3TaskGESEFLSLF工期=3TaskBESEFLSLF工期=3TaskDESEFLSLF工期=2TaskFESEFLSLF工期=3TaskEESEFLSLF工期=2TaskHESEFLSLF開始結(jié)束計(jì)算子網(wǎng)絡(luò)SubNets–FragnetsPMBOK6.2.2.4網(wǎng)絡(luò)模板（Networktemplates）使制圖過程更便捷?？砂ㄕ麄€(gè)項(xiàng)目，也可是其中一部分。網(wǎng)絡(luò)的一部分稱為：子網(wǎng)絡(luò)。特別用于網(wǎng)絡(luò)中有重疊或相似內(nèi)容時(shí)。例如：蓋樓的每一層、醫(yī)藥臨床等。趕工Crashing:成本與進(jìn)度的平衡/折衷。（costandscheduletradeoff）。確定如何用最小的成本獲得最大的工期壓縮。通常成本增加。

快速跟進(jìn)Fasttracking:將前后順序變?yōu)槠叫校╟hangesequencetoparallel）。通常風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。工期壓縮DurationCompressionPMBOK6.4.2.2

ResourceLeveling/Smoothing/Allocation:用在resourcesconstraintcircumstances.將稀缺資源先分配到關(guān)鍵路徑上。AllocatescareresourcestotheCriticalPathActivitiesfirst.通常導(dǎo)致比最初進(jìn)度更長的工期。Oftenresultthelongerdurationthanpreliminaryschedule.資源重新分配（ResourceReallocation）:用在timeconstraintcircumstances將資源從非關(guān)鍵路徑上重新分配到關(guān)鍵路徑上，以彌補(bǔ)已經(jīng)落今后的進(jìn)度，或盡可能接近原定工期。（Resourcesreallocatedfromnon-criticaltocriticalactivitiestobringthescheduleback，orascloseaspossibletoitsoriginallyintendedoverallduration.）Extendhours,weekends,multipleshifts.Increaseproductivitybyusingdifferenttechnologiesandmachinery.啟發(fā)式資源平衡法PMBOK6.4.2.4

ResourceLevelingHeuristics啟發(fā)式資源平衡法PMBOK6.4.2.4

ResourceLevelingHeuristics資源逆向分配（Reverseresourceallocationscheduling）:有限或關(guān)鍵資源（Finiteandcriticalresource).從項(xiàng)目結(jié)束時(shí)間逆推進(jìn)度（Scheduledbackwardsfromendingdate）關(guān)鍵路徑資源計(jì)劃CriticalChainresourcePlanning:Atechniquemodifiesthescheduletoaccountforlimitedresources.Question: Addmorepeopleonataskcanincreaseordecreasetheproductivity?進(jìn)度更新ScheduleUpdates

PMBOK6.5.3.1更新Update:ModificationtoscheduleMayorMayNotrequiretoadjustmentstootheraspectsofprojectPlan.修訂Revision:SpecialcategoryofUpdate.Changetothestartandfinishdatesinapprovedprojectschedule.Generallyinresponsetothescopechangesorchangestoestimate.重新確定基線Rebaselining:Whilescheduleseveredelay,theoriginalperformancemeasurementbaselinenotapplicableBecareful,sincethehistoricaldatawillbelost.成本管理（CostManagement）What’scostmanagement?Including:InitiatetheprojectEstimatingOrganizingControllingAnalyzingReportingForecastingTakingnecessarycorrectiveactionwhenrequired.關(guān)于成本管理的問題成本管理的目的？

確保在批準(zhǔn)的預(yù)算內(nèi)完成項(xiàng)目的各個(gè)過程。成本管理的方法？ 資源計(jì)劃、成本的估算、預(yù)算、控制誰對(duì)成本在不同時(shí)間有不同的需求？ 管理層（實(shí)施結(jié)果，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)與識(shí)別），買方（不同的合同類型下）針對(duì)不同的管理需要，成本有哪些類型？ 可控、不可控；固定、變動(dòng)；直接、間接…如何控制與管理變更？糾正措施？S曲線？掙值？成本估算技術(shù)（CostEstimatingTechniques）模擬(類比)估算AnalogousEstimating–“topdown”;usingactualcostsfrompreviousprojectasbasisforestimateReliablewhenpreviousprojectsaresimilarandindividualshaveexpertise–formofexpertjudgment參數(shù)模型ParametricModeling–usesprojectcharacteristicsinmathematicalmodelstopredictcosts(e.g.buildinghouses)Reliablewhenhistoricalinformationisaccurate,parametersarequantifiable,andmodelisscalable2types:Regressionanalysis,LearningCurve從下至上的估算BottomUpEstimating–rollingupindividualactivitiesintoprojecttotal–smallerworkactivitieshavemoreaccuracy

計(jì)算機(jī)工具Computerizedtools–spreadsheets,software估算的準(zhǔn)確性(AccuracyofEstimates）量級(jí)估算OrderofMagnitudeEstimate:-25%to75%;Withoutdetaileddata,Bestguess,usuallymadeduringInitiationPhaseOtherNames:guesstimates,Conceptual,Preliminary預(yù)算估算BudgetEstimate:-10%to25%;Morebetterdata,usuallymadeduringthePlanningphaseOtherNames:Appropriation,Control,andDesign確定估算DefinitiveEstimate:-5%to10%;Welldefineddata,usuallybottomup.OtherNames:Check,Lumpsum,Tender,Postcontractchanges.估算的準(zhǔn)確性CostEstimates:量級(jí)估算OrderofMagnitude(ballparkestimate)：Duringinitialevaluation預(yù)算估算Budget:Usedtoobtainfundsandprojectapproval.確定估算Definitive:Proposals,bidevaluation,contractchangeetc.OrderofMagnitudeDefinitiveEstimateBudgetEstimate75%-25%25%-10%10%-5%生命周期成本（Lifecyclecosting）開發(fā)成本Developmentcost生產(chǎn)成本Productioncost運(yùn)維成本Operating/Maintenancecost處置成本DiscardcostDisposalcostwhileproductpasseditspointofusefulness.(e.g.電池，化學(xué)品etc.)TimeValueofMoneyPV=amountofpaymentinNyearsdividedby(1+interest)n

NPV=SumofPVofinflowandoutflowNPV>0,goNPV=0,considerNPV<0,nogoIRR=thatrateofdiscountatwhichthesumofthepositivepresentvaluesisequaltothesumofthenegativepresentvalues.ORcostequalrevenueandprojectisabreakeven.相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語及概念的介紹AccountingStandardsDistinguishPriceandCost.PresentValue:valuetodayoffuturecashflowsNetPresentValue:totalbenefits(incomeorrevenue)lessthecosts.NPVisthesumofeachpresentvalueofeachincome/revenueitem

InternalRateofReturn(IRR):companymayselectprojectbasedonhighestIRRPaybackPeriod:numberoftimeperiodsittakestorecovertheinvestmentintheprojectbeforegeneratingrevenuesOpportunityCost:opportunitygivenupbyselectingoneprojectoveranotherSunkCosts:expendedcosts.SunkcostsshouldnotbeconsideredwhendeterminingtocontinuewithatroubledprojectVariableCost:coststhatchangewiththeamountofproductionortheamountofwork(materials,wages)FixedCost:non-recurringcoststhatdonotchange相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語及概念的介紹-續(xù)AccountingStandards（Con’t）DirectCost:directlyattributabletoprojectwork(travel,wages,materials)IndirectCost:overheaditemsorcostsforthebenefitofmorethanoneproject(taxes,fringebenefits)Depreciation:assetslosevalueovertimeStraightLinedepreciation:sameamountistakeneachyearAcceleratedDepreciation:2formsDoubleDecliningBalanceSumoftheYearsDigitsLifeCycleCosting:includesoperationsandmaintenancephasesCostBenefitAnalysis:analysistherelationbetweencostandbenefit2/10Net30(Paymentterms)儲(chǔ)備（Reserves）目的： 當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件發(fā)生時(shí)降低或減少成本超支或進(jìn)度拖延的機(jī)會(huì)。ManagementReservesUnknownUnknownsManagementlevel,NotintheBAC.Oftenduetothescopechangeandrequirethechangeofthecostbaseline.ContingencyReservesKnownUnknownsProjectlevel,intheBACMaybepartofundistributedbaseline,orassignedtoaspecificactivity.(Inotherwards,itiswithintheproject’sapprovedbaseline)Intendtoreducetheimpactofmissingcost/scheduleobjectives.進(jìn)展報(bào)告（ProgressReporting）Establishedtoovercomeproblemofmakingsubjectiveestimatesofanactivity’sEV.Includes:50/50Rule:20/80Rule:0/100Rule:掙值（EarnedValue）是績效測(cè)量最常用的方法。綜合了范圍、成本和進(jìn)度計(jì)劃測(cè)量。3個(gè)關(guān)鍵值：PV-PlanedValue(BCWS-BudgetCostofWorkScheduled)EV-EarnedValue(BCWP-BudgetCostofWorkPerformed)AC-ActualCost(ACWP-ActualCostofWorkPerformed)兩個(gè)差異成本差異（CV）=EV－AC進(jìn)度差異（SV）=EV－PV例：CV=EV－AC=$-100SV=EV－PV=$-200為什么會(huì)有差異？PV（BCWS）EV（BCWP）AC（ACWP）$1,000$800$900兩個(gè)績效指數(shù)成本績效指數(shù)（CPI）=EV/AC進(jìn)度績效指數(shù)（SPI）=EV/PV例：CPI=EV/AC=$800/$900=0.89意味著：每花1元產(chǎn)出的工作價(jià)值0.89元。SPI=EV/PV=$800/$1000=0.8同樣：每花1元產(chǎn)出的工作價(jià)值0.8元。PV（BCWS）EV（BCWP）AC（ACWP）$1,000$800$900兩個(gè)完成指數(shù)任務(wù)完成指數(shù)（PC）=EV/BAC成本消耗指數(shù)（PS）=AC/BAC例：PC=EV/BAC=$800/$10000=8%意味著：已經(jīng)完成總工作量的8%PS=AC/BAC=$1100/$10000=11%同樣：已經(jīng)消耗項(xiàng)目總預(yù)算成本的11%BACEV（BCWP）AC（ACWP）$10,000$800$1100完成時(shí)的估算EstimateatCompletion(EAC)根據(jù)目前進(jìn)展?fàn)顩r來預(yù)測(cè)項(xiàng)目完成時(shí)的總成本。3種方法：EAC=BAC/CPI(Default)EAC=AC+BAC-EVEAC=AC+ETCSampleQuestionSampleQuestion-AnswerCVEV-AC-7SVEV-PV-2CPIEV/AC0.72SPIEV/PV0.90EACBAC/CPI138.89EAC2AC+BAC-EV107ETCEAC-AC113.89PCEV/BAC18%PSAC/BAC25%TCPI(BAC-EV)/(BAC-AC)1.093小竅門Tips.EV在大多數(shù)公式中都在前面。計(jì)算差異,EV在前；計(jì)算指數(shù),EV在上（分子）。公式與成本相關(guān)，用AC；公式與進(jìn)度相關(guān)，用PV。正數(shù)好，負(fù)數(shù)壞。EV>AC，節(jié)約；EV<AC，超支；EV>BV，超前；EV<BV，滯后。ETC指從今以后一段時(shí)間;EAC指工作結(jié)束那個(gè)點(diǎn)。Quality質(zhì)量Quality:

實(shí)體中與它滿足明確需要和隱含需要的能力相關(guān)的所有特性的總和。Totalityofcharacteristicsofanentitythatbearonitsabilitytosatisfystatedorimpliedneeds.Fivemisunderstandingsaboutquality:Qualitymeansgoodnessorluxury.Qualityisintangibleandnotmeasurable.QualityisExpensive.Qualityproblemisoriginatedbyworkers.Qualityoriginateinqualitydepartment.區(qū)別質(zhì)量與等級(jí)：如酒店星級(jí)區(qū)別質(zhì)量與鍍金（Goldplating）質(zhì)量目標(biāo)QualityGoals質(zhì)量的目標(biāo)是：適合于使用Fitnessforuse.(產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)能否使用？Istheproductorservicecapableofbeingused?)適合于目的Fitnessforpurpose.(產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)達(dá)到了設(shè)計(jì)目標(biāo)？Doestheproductorservicemeetitsintendedpurpose?)顧客滿意Customersatisfaction.(產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)滿足了顧客的期望？Doestheproductorservicemeetthecustomer'sexpectations?)符合需求Conformancetotherequirements.(產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)是否符合要求？Doestheproductorserviceconformtotherequirements?)質(zhì)量責(zé)任ResponsibilityforQuality高層管理Topmanagement負(fù)責(zé)組織的質(zhì)量。ResponsibleforQualityoftheOrganization項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理Projectmanager負(fù)責(zé)項(xiàng)目的質(zhì)量。ResponsibleforQualityoftheprojectIndividualemployee負(fù)責(zé)其所做工作的質(zhì)量。ResponsibleforthetaskstheyperformedQualityPlanning質(zhì)量計(jì)劃PMBOK8.1.1

確定與項(xiàng)目有關(guān)的質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)并確定達(dá)到標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的方法。質(zhì)量政策（Qualitypolicy）有組織的最高層正式發(fā)布的關(guān)于質(zhì)量的總宗旨和總方向。如果組織沒有正式質(zhì)量政策，項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)?wèi)?yīng)該為項(xiàng)目指定質(zhì)量政策。項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)有責(zé)任確保干系人全面獲知質(zhì)量政策。范圍說明（Scopestatement）產(chǎn)品描述（Productdescription）標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和規(guī)范（Standardandregulation）實(shí)驗(yàn)設(shè)計(jì)DesignofExperiments

PMBOK8.1.2.4一種統(tǒng)計(jì)方法，幫助識(shí)別哪些因素將影響某種變量。多用于項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)品上。如：汽車設(shè)計(jì)中確定哪種懸置與車輪的搭配效果最好，并且價(jià)位合理。項(xiàng)目中的用途—成本與進(jìn)度tradeoff： 高級(jí)工程師的費(fèi)用高但用時(shí)少，低級(jí)工程師則相反。將高級(jí)和低級(jí)工程師進(jìn)行多種組合，已確定最佳。QualityCost–質(zhì)量成本

PMBOK8.1.2.5質(zhì)量成本指為了達(dá)到產(chǎn)品/服務(wù)質(zhì)量而進(jìn)行的全部工作所發(fā)生的所有成本。包括符合要求的成本和不符合要求的成本。(CostofConformance/non-conformance)典型項(xiàng)目一般設(shè)定項(xiàng)目價(jià)值的3-5%作為質(zhì)量管理的成本。質(zhì)量成本類型QualityCostCategory:預(yù)防成本PreventionCost-costtoplanandexecuteaprojectsothatitwillbeerror-free鑒定成本AppraisalCost-costofevaluatingtheprocessesandtheoutputsoftheprocessestoensuretheproductiserror-free內(nèi)部失敗（故障）成本InternalFailureCost-costincurredtocorrectanidentifieddefectbeforethecustomerreceivestheproduct外部失?。ü收希┏杀綞xternalFailureCost-costincurredduetoerrorsdetectedbythecustomer.Thisincludeswarrantycost,fieldservicepersonneltrainingcost,complainthandling,andfuturebusinesslosses.測(cè)量與檢測(cè)設(shè)備成本MeasurementandTestEquipment-capitalcostofequipmentusedtoperformpreventionandappraisalactivities.QAandQCComparison質(zhì)量保證(QA):在質(zhì)量體系中實(shí)施的全部有計(jì)劃、有系統(tǒng)的活動(dòng)，以提供滿足項(xiàng)目相關(guān)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的信心。

質(zhì)量控制(QC):一個(gè)過程，用來監(jiān)控具體項(xiàng)目結(jié)果，以決定他們是否符合相關(guān)的質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并識(shí)別消除不滿意績效的成因。QAManagerialprocessOrganizeDesignsprograms/processesSetsobjectivesProvideresourcesDevelopsproceduresQCTechnicalaspectofQualityExaminesAnalyzesMonitorsconformanceProvidesreporting質(zhì)量控制中要區(qū)分以下概念PMBOK8.3預(yù)防(prevention)與檢查(inspection)特性抽樣(attributesampling)與變量抽樣(variablesampling)特殊原因(specialcause)與隨機(jī)原因(randomcause)許可的誤差(Tolerance/Threshold)與控制限度(controllimits)質(zhì)量工具QualityTools流程圖曲線圖帕累托圖（ParetoDiagram）-80/20定理因果圖（魚骨圖/Ishikawa圖）圖表（Graphs）控制圖（ControlCharts）核對(duì)表（Checksheets）Sampling確定樣本大小Beforerejectproduct,benchmarkthenumberofdefect(thisisthemanagementresponsibility).MethodsAcceptanceAttributeSpecialAttributeContinuoussamplingChainSkip-lotVariablesampling不斷改進(jìn)（ContinuesImprovementProcess）PDCA(戴明Deming):計(jì)劃Plan–提高當(dāng)前的實(shí)踐improvethepresentpractice執(zhí)行Do–計(jì)劃的實(shí)施implementtheplan檢查Check–通過測(cè)試來觀察是否得到了期望的結(jié)果。testtoseeifdesiredresultsareachieved行動(dòng)Act–實(shí)施糾正行動(dòng)。ImplementcorrectiveAction戴明還闡述說：85%的質(zhì)量問題應(yīng)由管理層負(fù)責(zé)，另外15%由團(tuán)隊(duì)成員負(fù)責(zé)。Demingalsostatedthat85%ofpoorqualityisattributabletothemanagement,15%totheteammembers.Taguchi’stheoryQualityshouldbedesignedintotheproduct,notinspectedintoit.Qualityisbestachievedbyminimizingthedeviationfromatarget.Theproductshouldbedesignedtobeimmunetouncontrollableenvironmentalfactors.Thecostofqualityshouldbemeasuredasafunctionofdeviationfromthestandardandthelossesshouldbemeasuredsystem-wide.AAR接受ARA測(cè)試ACR設(shè)計(jì)ACR需求EDCBAR—負(fù)責(zé) A—協(xié)助 C—審查責(zé)任分配矩陣可在各個(gè)等級(jí)實(shí)行責(zé)任分配矩陣PMRolesandResponsibilitiesIntegrator集成者是看到項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)及項(xiàng)目如何融入組織整體計(jì)劃的人。PMisthemostlikelypersonwhocanviewboththeprojectandthewayitfitsintotheoverallplanfortheorganization.協(xié)調(diào)項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)的努力。Mustcoordinatetheeffortsofalltheunitsoftheprojectteam.Communicator:水平，垂直，內(nèi)外，正式非正式等

TeamLeaderDecisionMakerClimateCreatororBuilderThePMshouldattempttobuildasupportiveatmospheresothatprojectteammembersworktogetherandnotagainstoneanother.Seektoavoidunrestandnegativeformsofconflictbybuildingsupportiveatmosphereearly.權(quán)力的類型

法定（LegitimateorFormal):基于一個(gè)人在公司中的正式地位。Basedonaperson'sformalpositioninthecompany.獎(jiǎng)賞Reward:

提供好結(jié)果的能力。如：提升、漲工資等Powertogivepositiveconsequencesoroutcomes.強(qiáng)制Coercive(Penalty):

提供壞結(jié)果的能力。如：停職、解聘等。Referstonegativeconsequencesthatapersoncaninflictonothers.威望Referent:

通過團(tuán)隊(duì)成員將某人視為模范，崇拜并心甘情愿追隨而獲得的能力。Powergainedwhenteammembersadmire,andwillinglyfollow,anindividualasarolemodel專家權(quán)威Expert:

通過在某方面公認(rèn)的知識(shí)或技能水平而獲得的能力。Referstoearnedpowerthrougharecognizedlevelofknowledgeorskillinaspecificarea.Alsocalledcharisma.領(lǐng)導(dǎo)風(fēng)格/決策模型

LeadershipStyles/DecisionModel

Autocratic（獨(dú)裁型）:

項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理很少或根本不從團(tuán)隊(duì)那里收集信息。ThePMsolicitslittleornoinformationfromteam.獨(dú)斷專行。Makesdecisionsolely.又被稱為：指導(dǎo)型。AlsoreferredtoasDirecting.

Consultiveautocratic（咨詢獨(dú)裁型）:

從團(tuán)隊(duì)那里收集大量信息。Intensiveinformationinputissolicitedfromtheteam.但自己作決定。ThePMstillmakesthedecisionssolely.又被稱為：說服型。MayalsobereferredtoasPersuading.

領(lǐng)導(dǎo)風(fēng)格/決策模型

LeadershipStyles/DecisionModel

Democratic(民主型)

將問題交給團(tuán)隊(duì)討論并收集信息。Problempresentedtotheteamforopendiscussionandinformationgathering.團(tuán)隊(duì)做決策。Teammakesdecision.

又被稱為：參與型。AlsoreferredtoasParticipating/ConsensusManager.

LaisseyFaire(自由放任型)

集體內(nèi)上下之間很少或沒有信息交換。Littleornoinformationexchangetakesplacewithinthegroup(Upanddown).

團(tuán)隊(duì)有最終決策權(quán)。Theteamhastheultimateauthorityforthefinaldecision.又被稱為：授權(quán)型。

AlsoreferredtoasDelegating/ShareholderManager.

注：這種類型被認(rèn)為是拙劣的管理。Thisstyleisconsideredtobepoormanagement.Maslow的需求層次理論人與人之間存在需求差異。生理安全愛和歸屬自尊自我實(shí)現(xiàn)動(dòng)機(jī)理論MotivationTheories

TheoryX:(developedbyMcGregortodescribehowmanagersrelatetosubordinates)Mostpeopledisliketheirworkandwillavoidit.Mostpeoplelackambitionandhavelittlecapacityforproblemsolvingandcreativity.Workerspreferdirectionandavoidtakingresponsibilityandinitiative.WorkersmotivatedonlybyMaslow'slowerlevelneeds(physiologicalandsafety).Workersareself-centered,indifferenttotheneedsoftheorganization,andresistanttochange.TheoryY:(alsodevelopedbyMcGregor)Mostpeoplemeethighperformanceexpectationsifappropriatelymotivatedandtheclimatesupportive.Mostpeoplearecreative,imaginative,ambitious,andcommittedtomeetingtheorganization'sgoals.Mostpeopleareself-disciplined,candirectandcontrolthemselves,desireresponsibilities,andacceptthemwillingly.WorkersaremotivatedbyMaslow'shigherlevelneeds(selfesteemandselfactualization)動(dòng)機(jī)理論MotivationTheories

TheoryZ:(DevelopedbyOuchi.ThesourcewastheJapaneseworkplace)SimilarcharacteristicsasTheoryY.Managementdeemsworkersastrustworthyandcapableofworkingwithoutclosesupervision.Workersaremotivatedbyselfesteemandselfactualization.Japanesemanagementprovidesasupportiveenvironmentwithlifetimeemployment,consensusdecisionmaking,andcollectiveresponsibility.Ouchitheorizedthattotheextentlifetimeemployment,consensusdecisionmaking,andcollectiveresponsibility,thenworkerproductivityandmotivationwouldimprove.ContingencyTheory:(DevelopedbyMorseandLorsch)Peoplehaveacentralneedtodevelopasenseofcompetence.Thisneedcontinuestomotivateevenaftercompetencehasbeenachieved.Projectmanagersshouldensurethatthereisagoodmatchbetweenteammembers'skillsandtheirassignmentsandthattheorganizationalclimateisconducivetomeetingteammembersneedsandachievingasenseofcompetence.動(dòng)機(jī)理論MotivationTheories

GoalSettingTheory:(DevelopedbyLathamandLocke)Workingtowardsagoalisamajorsourceofjobmotivation.Individualshaveaninternaldesiretoachievegoals.Clear,specific,concise,andchallenginggoalsmotivateteammembers.Projectparticipantsmustbeallowedtoparticipateinsettinggoals,formulatingplansandimplementationstrategiesinordertogainparticipants'acceptanceandc