某項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理培訓(xùn)教材

第十一章項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理吳永達(dá)，PMP吳永達(dá)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義事件E發(fā)生概率P結(jié)果V風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)期貨幣值（EMV）：用貨幣綜合表示風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目的影響EMV=P*VEMV吳永達(dá)人們對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的態(tài)度-效用函數(shù)-utilityfunction風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追隨者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中立者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回避者吳永達(dá)依嶺據(jù)工令具攔與稅技懂術(shù)成這果規(guī)殖劃恢會(huì)戰(zhàn)議圍和怠分蛋析風(fēng)學(xué)險(xiǎn)扁管萬理代計(jì)耐劃項(xiàng)哨目鎖范宿圍小說稻明壁書成澆本匆管州理皂計(jì)錄劃進(jìn)野度躲管輕理海計(jì)纖劃溝宣通垮管慎理竄計(jì)丹劃事燃業(yè)怎環(huán)健境右因撐素組襯織羨過懂程緩資哈產(chǎn)1影1笑.荒1秩規(guī)鐘劃納風(fēng)慎險(xiǎn)角管追理吳丸永趴達(dá)項(xiàng)膝目技命術(shù)峽的外寬部觸的項(xiàng)冬目絞管漠理需悶求技稼術(shù)質(zhì)岔量估類算控福制溝行通分葵包雄商客稼戶氣短候R腥B拖S組蹲織謀的項(xiàng)崗目紫依換賴葛關(guān)哭系資腔金優(yōu)逗先赴級(jí)吳縣永仔達(dá)項(xiàng)雁目性風(fēng)載險(xiǎn)斧管鏟理1貢1涉.板1規(guī)澇劃風(fēng)里險(xiǎn)揀管意理1袍1點(diǎn).此2識(shí)仁別姐風(fēng)揉險(xiǎn)1潑1海.圾3實(shí)窮施經(jīng)定權(quán)性風(fēng)渣險(xiǎn)捆分伴析1魄1宵.餐4實(shí)矮施陜定們量風(fēng)弱險(xiǎn)騎分笨析1否1狠.蝦5規(guī)栽劃風(fēng)狹險(xiǎn)誼應(yīng)瀉對(duì)4撓.費(fèi)2制往定櫻項(xiàng)這目管殊理賊計(jì)鑼劃風(fēng)圓險(xiǎn)碑管額理歲計(jì)或劃5大.雀2定閣義稀范鳴圍6項(xiàng)候目淘時(shí)壘間蛛管責(zé)理7項(xiàng)錄目鴨成污本榮管怪理1南0嫩.額2規(guī)障劃鑰溝架通企業(yè)/組織組治織擁過航程蟲資駝產(chǎn)事用業(yè)么環(huán)糕境喬因即素溝碰通捏管查理令計(jì)疲劃成抬本磨管毯理呈計(jì)陽劃進(jìn)碼度勸管掏理牧計(jì)陜劃項(xiàng)低目蘇范縫圍華說陡明箭書吳植永富達(dá)依殊據(jù)工屑具姿與餡技趙術(shù)成窮果文語檔浪回遠(yuǎn)顧信舉息秤搜寫集絡(luò)技角術(shù)檢礙查扯單指分星析假植設(shè)家分約析圖石形蔑技榜術(shù)S差W枕O浩T分憶析專抽家節(jié)判撞斷風(fēng)協(xié)險(xiǎn)元登早記遇冊(cè)風(fēng)號(hào)險(xiǎn)幻玉管鄉(xiāng)豐理桃計(jì)蠢劃活馬動(dòng)脂成濕本傘估國(guó)算活壓動(dòng)極歷感時(shí)將估架算范諸圍越基灰準(zhǔn)干賽系癢人先登孕記冷冊(cè)成初本擋管瓣理傳計(jì)搭劃進(jìn)毅度犧管芹理命計(jì)百劃質(zhì)脹量鳴管葡理泡計(jì)社劃項(xiàng)槐目鴨文氧件事攤業(yè)雙環(huán)字境買因膀素組央織磨過欺程襖資促產(chǎn)1劃1隙.姓2可風(fēng)佳險(xiǎn)踐識(shí)腳別吳臟永趙達(dá)信房誠息鵝搜雞集宜技潤(rùn)術(shù)頭互腦畢風(fēng)沈暴裝法組（桂集晶思脂廣究益坡會(huì)瞧）德狠爾側(cè)斐現(xiàn)技辭術(shù)吳賤永刷達(dá)S乖W枯O代T丙分廈析內(nèi)驕因外納因積稼極消游極S扎t夠r恢e槐n授g醫(yī)t貸h強(qiáng)祖勢(shì)O沙p慘p娘o抗r都t許u策n針i回t哭y機(jī)裕會(huì)W床e承a惡k嫌n伯e竭s韻s弱忍點(diǎn)T棵h面r圈e紡a毫t威冷脅吳磚永阿達(dá)過腿程回跟福蹤爸分價(jià)析奴法餓-鏈酒囑店仿預(yù)縱訂將網(wǎng)賺商雪務(wù)區(qū)模翻式會(huì)封員揪旅樂客網(wǎng)塵絡(luò)烈中透心合討同后酒卵店航參空伴卡克會(huì)招員信莫用沖卡常會(huì)濤員消特費(fèi)脹卡個(gè)會(huì)射員保井險(xiǎn)漿卡色會(huì)僻員普綱通屋卡窮會(huì)止員自熄行嫂登聲記遷結(jié)驚帳上掙網(wǎng)啊/到免矛費(fèi)宮電壤話信討息工流類向貨翅幣麻流掩向契墳約扮紐埋帶預(yù)眾訂熄信添息歷傳鄉(xiāng)豐輸傭塊金先結(jié)冬算服己務(wù)記及廉優(yōu)趕惠跟契固約吳厲永惹達(dá)風(fēng)問險(xiǎn)荒列害表朽-忌基義本掉信隱息風(fēng)險(xiǎn)ID描述識(shí)別人潛在原因潛在對(duì)策可能后果備注1234567吳翠永苗達(dá)項(xiàng)悉目益風(fēng)遭險(xiǎn)桿管蠢理1爸1滾.滅1規(guī)煉劃風(fēng)帥險(xiǎn)循管鋪理1綁1開.貴2識(shí)駕別往風(fēng)興險(xiǎn)1絨1典.努3實(shí)耳施鍛定凍性風(fēng)巖險(xiǎn)彈分艇析1計(jì)1甘.米4實(shí)患施挪定呢量風(fēng)刪險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)分樂析1柳1燭.歸5規(guī)訓(xùn)劃風(fēng)故險(xiǎn)總應(yīng)弓對(duì)8抄.年1規(guī)足劃潔質(zhì)殖量風(fēng)窮險(xiǎn)油管娛理胖計(jì)騙劃5傅.濫3創(chuàng)廟建失W協(xié)B染S6項(xiàng)散目影時(shí)興間嶺管劣理7項(xiàng)賭目丙成情本創(chuàng)管煮理1躍0荷.減1識(shí)催別熟干啟系銹人企業(yè)/組織組客織上過暑程磨資石產(chǎn)事扒業(yè)聲環(huán)蓋境遮因狠素干傲系諷人痕登憶記遺冊(cè)成燦本懶管灑理叫計(jì)灘劃進(jìn)演度援管管理乞計(jì)遵劃范普圍露基椒準(zhǔn)1禁1即.明6監(jiān)腎控踢風(fēng)港險(xiǎn)7塘.牧1估劫算壇成籠本1萌2謀.灣1規(guī)柿劃撥采塘購風(fēng)僵險(xiǎn)放登悔記京冊(cè)6旗.獵4估善算就活鈴動(dòng)羽歷筍時(shí)活捉動(dòng)哲歷劇時(shí)沈估圣算質(zhì)狠量貍管鍛理燃計(jì)哄劃活復(fù)動(dòng)然成啄本黎估剖算項(xiàng)媽目副文快件項(xiàng)鉤目級(jí)文賭件吳扮永涉達(dá)依篩據(jù)工寫具悔與覽技嶺術(shù)成奧果風(fēng)販險(xiǎn)船概唉率雜和孝影驚響侍評(píng)柔估概哀率問和蜜影杏響秧矩賤陣風(fēng)兵險(xiǎn)雁數(shù)滑據(jù)柜質(zhì)胃量短評(píng)收估風(fēng)板險(xiǎn)怪類母別風(fēng)邪險(xiǎn)通緊每急兔性孩評(píng)傲估專鳴家蓄判獸斷風(fēng)層險(xiǎn)畫登虧記若表嫁（梨更貝新剃）風(fēng)相險(xiǎn)剃登命記贊冊(cè)風(fēng)跟險(xiǎn)民管測(cè)理催計(jì)黑劃項(xiàng)海目娃范標(biāo)圍韻說你明稅書組爬織仙過辨程宅資流產(chǎn)1圓1切.漸3升實(shí)躁施聾定堆性歡風(fēng)行險(xiǎn)剛分罰析吳伐永屬達(dá)風(fēng)薄險(xiǎn)或列遷表區(qū)-蘭風(fēng)掃險(xiǎn)灑分臥析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)ID風(fēng)險(xiǎn)描述類別發(fā)生概率影響后果優(yōu)先級(jí)備注1234567吳撥永朋達(dá)概戀率腐和臉影腫響捎矩侄陣概率和影響矩陣概率威脅機(jī)會(huì)0.900.050.090.180.360.720.720.360.180.090.050.700.040.070.140.280.560.560.280.140.070.040.500.030.050.100.200.400.400.200.100.050.030.300.020.030.060.120.240.240.120.060.030.020.100.010.010.200.040.080.080.040.200.010.010.050.100.200.400.800.800.400.200.100.05對(duì)目標(biāo)的影響（比率標(biāo)度）（如費(fèi)用、時(shí)間或范圍）每毛一榴風(fēng)萍險(xiǎn)們按攪其章發(fā)邊生格概齒率密及溜一柏旦沉發(fā)少生碗所爆造更成俊的雜影映響宋評(píng)膏價(jià)毛級(jí)右別娛。通矩形陣佛中終所軌示只組慎織磨規(guī)賀定桌的飛低水風(fēng)詞險(xiǎn)噴、席中錦等蕉風(fēng)酒險(xiǎn)胳與鋼高鏈風(fēng)凱險(xiǎn)嗎的溝臨擇界太值孔確喪定片了憑風(fēng)寧險(xiǎn)罪的健得寶分-個(gè)《練P怠M竊B遍O巷K冊(cè)第宣四域版軟》吳由永趨達(dá)項(xiàng)雕目五風(fēng)慢險(xiǎn)口管寫理1廢1晴.盆1規(guī)萄劃風(fēng)斷險(xiǎn)堵管倆理1語1蝕.忽2識(shí)固別嗚風(fēng)喘險(xiǎn)1寄1派.占3實(shí)蜘施瞎定良性風(fēng)覽險(xiǎn)妻分棵析風(fēng)避險(xiǎn)企管遙理敗計(jì)懼劃風(fēng)疲險(xiǎn)趟登年記盈冊(cè)風(fēng)映險(xiǎn)寄登襪記封冊(cè)鞋（兆更似新凱）5祝.盆3創(chuàng)著建敬W蹈B那S范問圍務(wù)說迷明庫書企業(yè)/組織組赤織糠過謠程詢資推產(chǎn)吳壘永性達(dá)依煉據(jù)工楊具饒與鋒技習(xí)術(shù)成督果數(shù)木據(jù)守收裁集定與免展遇示強(qiáng)技今術(shù)定澆量而風(fēng)策險(xiǎn)墊分碰析許與顆建而模踩技娃術(shù)專槳家均判澆斷風(fēng)鬼險(xiǎn)掛登尾記械表?xiàng)l（兇更攻新首）風(fēng)丙險(xiǎn)噸登月記冠冊(cè)風(fēng)恢險(xiǎn)針管世理懸計(jì)乓劃成企本壁管沿理專計(jì)幕劃進(jìn)摘度看管朽理政計(jì)敗劃組遠(yuǎn)織韻過只程亮資捕產(chǎn)1父1斑.耗4恰實(shí)秒施攜定省量捆風(fēng)麥險(xiǎn)觸分俗析吳馬永擾達(dá)敏饑感濕性黑分城析內(nèi)夸部現(xiàn)收刑益等率0要%2偵0堵%2依5舅%3國(guó)0右%+詳1辦0引%+爭(zhēng)2伐0浴%增付幅-歌1圍0糧%-候2促0縱%價(jià)唯格+1茅0剛%1產(chǎn)番銷斗量+1團(tuán)0寶%23投罵資弟額+1赤0境%1移8訂%2篇0績(jī)%2稱7柔%2同9怨%2臥3罩%2寬1混%成麗本+1紗0硬%2鎖4粗%2培6鬧%增胡值正稅+1臉0興%45吳耀永仙達(dá)龍并卷動(dòng)風(fēng)立圖吳蒜永泉達(dá)計(jì)梳算鍋E竭M(jìn)滾V坦（鍬風(fēng)槳險(xiǎn)任預(yù)堤期濃貨誘幣灣值提）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生機(jī)率（P）后果EMV預(yù)期貨幣值重要人員離職0.5進(jìn)度拖延3天，每天費(fèi)用1萬1.5萬技術(shù)難題無法克服0.4終止項(xiàng)目，損失50萬20萬政治環(huán)境變化0.1撤出項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)，損失30萬3萬天氣異常0.2進(jìn)度拖延1個(gè)月，每天費(fèi)用1萬6萬吳養(yǎng)永寬達(dá)決芬策鉛樹們分丑析評(píng)與父E園M幫V狹計(jì)廚算投清資扇決蜓策項(xiàng)辭目壺A項(xiàng)秧目?jī)r(jià)B5尚0嫩%5鬼0襲0飼萬5尖0則%-成3扔0區(qū)0涼萬8磚0哲%3的0廣0服萬2怕0債%-來5慣0加0答萬E扇M清V忌=廚0改.搞5碼*賢5硬0終0榜-般0術(shù).脖5漢*趟3科0給0身=孕1芝0共0E慌M胞V宣=充0透.架8嗎*谷3病0吹0影-閉0斧.音2努*傳5甩0夾0殃=久1款4因0吳頓永煌達(dá)決弱策字樹妄分敏析洽示脈例-慣《憂P旨M奶B六O醒K哲第蹄三鋒版匹》禽中手文帶P壘2塵1盼5決策定義決策節(jié)點(diǎn)機(jī)會(huì)節(jié)點(diǎn)純路徑價(jià)值制定決策依據(jù)：每項(xiàng)選擇的費(fèi)用成果：已定決策依據(jù)：情景概率，發(fā)生后的收入成果：EMV計(jì)算：收入減費(fèi)用建東造責(zé)或辰升刑級(jí)建贊造書新特廠改井造悄老測(cè)廠強(qiáng)卸需舅求弱揚(yáng)需事求強(qiáng)芬需把求弱班需印求6鴨5篇%2翅0匙0劈燕美濫元8選0影美亂元3棗5話%9符0渣美擦元-偶3稠0楚美掏元6揪5裕%1詞2我0設(shè)美靠元3兔5隊(duì)%6顧0不美銷元7棕0起美煮元1背0造美船元-崗1莫2威0本美屠元-舞5童0靈美碌元E待M冒V番=積0摔.值6局5烤*改8飼0汽+免0范.洽3盯5要*赴(沈-蜂3揭0段)嘩=冠4耽1尸.遲5經(jīng)美反元E通M清V傲=奴0矮.擦6汗5切*恨7袋0舟+蘇0炎.脊3擱5性*稻1粒0翅=券4趟9轎美謠元吳由永塑達(dá)項(xiàng)蠟?zāi)糠L(fēng)孩險(xiǎn)出管使理1城1豪.冷1規(guī)仇劃風(fēng)姿險(xiǎn)躺管飛理1難1稅.撞2識(shí)綱別失風(fēng)酸險(xiǎn)1圣1階.票4實(shí)目施漁定怖量風(fēng)斜險(xiǎn)衡分金析風(fēng)棄險(xiǎn)淚管知理鎖計(jì)擁劃風(fēng)誤險(xiǎn)枕登驕記減冊(cè)風(fēng)體險(xiǎn)較登旅記裁冊(cè)扮（地更跪新鉗）7項(xiàng)眾目堵成坑本份管蘋理成熟本之管青理詠計(jì)值劃企業(yè)/組織組掙織萬過長(zhǎng)程墾資威產(chǎn)6項(xiàng)診目渣時(shí)踐間映管猜理進(jìn)捆度跟管練理欄計(jì)只劃吳灘永看達(dá)依溪據(jù)工絲式具休與壟技白術(shù)成藥果消鏟極個(gè)風(fēng)陡險(xiǎn)向和蜘威維脅釘?shù)钠挪呦x略積毯極村風(fēng)稠險(xiǎn)驅(qū)和穿機(jī)擾會(huì)寧的忠策信略應(yīng)葵急綿應(yīng)段對(duì)舅策芹略專范家屑判妖斷風(fēng)抵險(xiǎn)頓登上記嫂冊(cè)說（踩更砌新器）與河風(fēng)世險(xiǎn)剖相劑關(guān)緞的雷合旅同跳決葡策項(xiàng)著目面管它理裙計(jì)鑄劃木（姓更光新微）項(xiàng)赴目汁文泥件麻（布更場(chǎng)新辜）風(fēng)巡壽險(xiǎn)駁管效理驕計(jì)細(xì)劃風(fēng)盡險(xiǎn)末注只冊(cè)姓表1駝1艷.虜5泳規(guī)棟劃夏風(fēng)毅險(xiǎn)漠應(yīng)音對(duì)吳晉永豈達(dá)風(fēng)笨險(xiǎn)巴應(yīng)旋對(duì)顯主對(duì)要逆措則施名稱特點(diǎn)情景回避Avoid改變計(jì)劃或范圍去掉WBS中有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的工作包或由第三方來消除緩解Mitigate降低概率或后果雇傭有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的雇員轉(zhuǎn)移Transference轉(zhuǎn)給第三方購買保險(xiǎn)或第三方擔(dān)保積極接受Acceptance準(zhǔn)備備用計(jì)劃準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備金有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不能回避和減輕，準(zhǔn)備備用計(jì)劃被動(dòng)接受Acceptance什么都不作吳暴永沿達(dá)風(fēng)恒險(xiǎn)顧列爹表敘-拾風(fēng)互險(xiǎn)川應(yīng)國(guó)對(duì)集計(jì)沙劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)ID風(fēng)險(xiǎn)征兆預(yù)計(jì)日期應(yīng)對(duì)措施備選措施應(yīng)對(duì)者備注1234567吳倡永女達(dá)項(xiàng)趙目寸風(fēng)北險(xiǎn)宅管拳理1藏1舅.宵1規(guī)致劃風(fēng)夜險(xiǎn)邁管秩理1肝1膠.延2識(shí)村別曾風(fēng)宗險(xiǎn)1紹1垃.擁5規(guī)摟劃禁風(fēng)譽(yù)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)傘對(duì)風(fēng)傳險(xiǎn)否管駱理蹤蝶計(jì)暫劃風(fēng)獅險(xiǎn)叼登純記圾冊(cè)風(fēng)迫險(xiǎn)臨登頓記綢冊(cè)俱（嚴(yán)更幟新恩）項(xiàng)繩目鍋文價(jià)件項(xiàng)縮慧目疤文廣件（寨更乘新免）4揉.耀2制鼻定狗項(xiàng)括目管慢理餅計(jì)癥劃1舍2蕉.好1規(guī)易劃任采旅購項(xiàng)罰目費(fèi)管徑理摧計(jì)倘劃叼（還更稠新青）與棋風(fēng)領(lǐng)險(xiǎn)幣相撕關(guān)汗的格合滋同晚決行策吳觀永藥達(dá)依條據(jù)工被具犧與聾技由術(shù)成麗果風(fēng)冒險(xiǎn)爐再桶評(píng)說估風(fēng)掙險(xiǎn)膏審餐計(jì)偏市差架與壤趨六勢(shì)頂分偶析技拘術(shù)跪績(jī)絲式效揮測(cè)酸量?jī)?chǔ)棉備泡分押析狀葬態(tài)繡審蜂查圓會(huì)風(fēng)傳險(xiǎn)搭登瓜記賞冊(cè)萬（掩更作新賣）組牢織串過顯程犧資親產(chǎn)撇（蓮更另新倡）變狗更漏請(qǐng)貨求項(xiàng)弱目貢管虛理掉計(jì)林劃摧（倉更匪新葉）項(xiàng)絕目渣文洗件宏（蜓更芳新徹）風(fēng)當(dāng)險(xiǎn)誤登濟(jì)記煌冊(cè)項(xiàng)浙目秋管停理茫計(jì)吧劃工坐作其績(jī)對(duì)效漿信鹽息績(jī)腿效否報(bào)姨告1再1端.濃6蒜風(fēng)肉險(xiǎn)房誠監(jiān)白控吳盜永傳達(dá)風(fēng)頓險(xiǎn)姻列美表桌-墳風(fēng)鎖險(xiǎn)教監(jiān)純