統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)原理之時(shí)間數(shù)列

第六章

時(shí)間數(shù)列分析

第一節(jié)動(dòng)態(tài)數(shù)列的編制

一、動(dòng)態(tài)數(shù)列的概念動(dòng)態(tài)數(shù)列又稱時(shí)間數(shù)列。它是將某種統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)，或在不同時(shí)間上的不同數(shù)值，按時(shí)間先后順序排列起來(lái)，以便于研究其發(fā)展變化的水平和速度，并以此來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的一種統(tǒng)計(jì)方法。上海市國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年份1999200020012002200320042005億元4034.964551.154950.845408.766250.817450.279143.95例動(dòng)態(tài)泊數(shù)仇列規(guī)由氣兩偵個(gè)究基津本啞要皂素本構(gòu)政成渡：①側(cè)時(shí)韻間船標(biāo)抬度呀，棟即邁觀追察罰值航所科屬切的匯時(shí)燥間姑；②名現(xiàn)笛象勉的霜具舒體容數(shù)燃量毀表坦現(xiàn)遇，禁即艦觀辮察祖值感。時(shí)稠間墓數(shù)由列革（擱T腰i耳m星e決s錘e絹r挎i美e澡s裹）遞:六在籌連打續(xù)炸時(shí)術(shù)點(diǎn)懂或舞連反續(xù)晴時(shí)殊期抬上匙測(cè)諒量棗的拌觀搏測(cè)催值災(zāi)的糕集勉合男。年份國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（億元）年份國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（億元）19791980198119821983198419851986198719884038.24517.84862.45294.75934.57171.08964.410202.211962.514928.3198919901991199219931994199519961997199816909.218547.921617.826638.134634.446759.458478.167884.674462.679395.7時(shí)麥間欠數(shù)流列榮的懇要辣素弱之帆一抹：訊時(shí)扒間換t時(shí)忘間混數(shù)餃列啄的傭要甚素百之嫁二遵：匠變?yōu)┝砍韆全艙國(guó)歸城今鄉(xiāng)布居再民貝儲(chǔ)嶺蓄險(xiǎn)存碰款年末199920002001200220032004余額2597.122524.053001.894915.546054.606960.99例單但位約：吊億銷(xiāo)元上鵲?？鹇氄`工觀2繩0念0辨1吹-防2盟0遵0爹5弊年絮年猾平捎均制工墾資年份20012002200320042005年平均工資1776419473221602439826823例單回位勸：若元時(shí)驗(yàn)間爽數(shù)往列布的凳作耕用時(shí)解間羞數(shù)潔列領(lǐng)是舉按銷(xiāo)時(shí)欠序夫排售列拼的展指吳標(biāo)冷數(shù)際值從轟動(dòng)泄態(tài)敢上蜘描獄述蔬現(xiàn)牢象姥發(fā)蜓展豎的控狀坦態(tài)車(chē)、辮趨鑼勢(shì)夢(mèng)和死速蘇度找；通加過(guò)追對(duì)率時(shí)廉間托數(shù)染列雞的弓分順析損可陶以吳探病索按某至些豪事學(xué)物畫(huà)發(fā)位展鍵的患規(guī)慕律?。豢勺兺◢溥^(guò)鉤時(shí)勝間陽(yáng)數(shù)莖列負(fù)對(duì)況某理些淡現(xiàn)貿(mào)象框進(jìn)遞行甩預(yù)坐測(cè)巾；可繳結(jié)澇合椅幾號(hào)個(gè)賺時(shí)稀間淡數(shù)魂列段進(jìn)泊行緞現(xiàn)稍象血之綿間風(fēng)相商互白關(guān)屠系神的翠對(duì)顏比鄙分述析禮。經(jīng)慣濟(jì)朝周出期責(zé):繡循放環(huán)冬性案變此動(dòng)繁康榮籌拐猜點(diǎn)繁堡榮蝦拐為點(diǎn)衰堡退活拐掛點(diǎn)蕭哈條依拐駕點(diǎn)復(fù)爬蘇孟拐駕點(diǎn)時(shí)旬間古數(shù)陽(yáng)列撈分伙類(lèi)按秧指鋒標(biāo)槳形仔式伸分按乖變腹量棕性貴質(zhì)紀(jì)分按春變駝化雹形傭態(tài)攔分總桌量寸指帝標(biāo)盼數(shù)脊列相沈?qū)S指蒙標(biāo)拒數(shù)恭列平西均圈指猶標(biāo)米數(shù)豎列確修定河性五數(shù)倦列隨伍機(jī)模性聾數(shù)戲列平錦穩(wěn)閥性短數(shù)斬列趨重勢(shì)健性暢數(shù)純列季恭節(jié)粥性井?dāng)?shù)脂列時(shí)奸間瞎序返列房誠(chéng)的珠種膏類(lèi)銀：年份20012002200320042005社會(huì)商品零售總額（億元）939810894122371605320598年末居民存款余額（億元）911011545147642151929662國(guó)有經(jīng)濟(jì)單位職工工資總額所占比重(％)78.4577.5577.7845.0674.81職工平均貨幣工資（元）23652677323645105500時(shí)楚間袍數(shù)治列亞的戰(zhàn)特廢點(diǎn)爆：派屯生淡性截—武有項(xiàng)絕玻對(duì)廊數(shù)喬列勁派漿生濁而糠得不請(qǐng)可江加等性可毫加里性著、池關(guān)宏聯(lián)扭性即、卻連爽續(xù)遞登俱記不角可捏加暗性蕩—郊不充同扛時(shí)饒期勻資想料甩不瓣可鑼加無(wú)盜關(guān)捉聯(lián)扭性犬—浩與釋時(shí)奸間聲的巷長(zhǎng)特短電無(wú)礎(chǔ)關(guān)秩聯(lián)間頭斷體登傲記典—承資家料味的們收像集搖登御記平均相對(duì)時(shí)期時(shí)點(diǎn)特點(diǎn)序列平狡穩(wěn)粱性料數(shù)節(jié)列趨太勢(shì)脊性停數(shù)惱列三頁(yè)、爐動(dòng)陳態(tài)墓數(shù)稈列彎的炭編幣制褲原湯則基任本帖原掌則胸是濃遵齒守駁其陪可昨比艱性俊。具柿體襲說(shuō)躍有授以腔下甚幾任點(diǎn)責(zé)：注意維時(shí)帶間映的湊長(zhǎng)從短廳應(yīng)榜統(tǒng)侮一途；總體分范較圍奸應(yīng)卸該幻玉一嗚致菜；指標(biāo)省的秋經(jīng)幸濟(jì)射內(nèi)臘容晉應(yīng)落該咽相笛同慮；指標(biāo)攻的鹽計(jì)饒算培方叉法捕和蠅計(jì)術(shù)量飾單陸位削應(yīng)閑該已一及致娛。時(shí)鑼間瘡屬吸性四可壁比移：總步體那范煙圍爭(zhēng)可欣比蘋(píng)：指紫標(biāo)杜口配徑擇可緊比澇：計(jì)得量臉單擾位扶可劍比字：等討期受、湊等座間資隔等熊空詳間沈、仍等殊地位域名夏、炒實(shí)奇相秩同質(zhì)至、依級(jí)遇相奏同指標(biāo)1952-19571958-19621963-19651966-19761977-1986社會(huì)總產(chǎn)值（億元）工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值（億元）工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值比重（%）8283.43404.541.111448.26903.360.366983878.157.947210.729553.962.6103902.583849.380.76果年5罩年3配年1腦1嘉年1波0搜年二梳動(dòng)得態(tài)禮數(shù)組列嬌的止水擁平率分殼析西指中標(biāo)屬于薯現(xiàn)拾象固發(fā)防展命的漏水茄平金分門(mén)析懶指騎標(biāo)帶有顯：郵發(fā)逝展蕉水室平倆平傲均促發(fā)蚊展盯水珍平袋增伍長(zhǎng)勢(shì)量刑平孫均握增獅長(zhǎng)硬量肚。一丟、腦發(fā)蓬展脹水承平在動(dòng)虜態(tài)牌數(shù)真列融中海，剝每重個(gè)奶絕破對(duì)灘數(shù)手指始標(biāo)傍數(shù)妻值格叫爆做紋發(fā)展厲水吧平伯或瘦動(dòng)狼態(tài)爪數(shù)獨(dú)列閃水耐平藝。如果磨用豪a0，私a1，禮a2，慚a3，批…爭(zhēng)…稿an，強(qiáng)代這表忘數(shù)企列縣中各憂個(gè)疏發(fā)鋪展期水蟲(chóng)平專，旋則追其急中丹a0即賽最泄初申水婚平情，匙an即最蒼末憂水搜平。最組初腹水泛平中壤間翅水瞧平最庸末暈水映平n跡項(xiàng)繁數(shù)睜據(jù)峰，藏n同-塑1復(fù)個(gè)會(huì)增未長(zhǎng)恰量秀、尿發(fā)瘡展曉速豎度n近+丸1執(zhí)項(xiàng)炭數(shù)嘩據(jù)薯，律n防個(gè)轟增沖長(zhǎng)科量扒、猶發(fā)只展沫速研度發(fā)某展貨水腳平二喬、獄平課均古發(fā)針展睬水杜平平均惡發(fā)損展歸水席平悟是子對(duì)虜不心同隆時(shí)途期導(dǎo)的脫發(fā)歪展跑水甲平木求奸平均群數(shù)兼，挽統(tǒng)華計(jì)塌上攝又盜叫扣序畢時(shí)舞平伍均哀數(shù)。平煌均銀發(fā)慣展作水椅平序時(shí)平均方法總量指標(biāo)時(shí)期數(shù)列簡(jiǎn)單算術(shù)平均時(shí)點(diǎn)數(shù)列連續(xù)時(shí)點(diǎn)間隔相等簡(jiǎn)單算術(shù)平均間隔不等加權(quán)算術(shù)平均間斷時(shí)點(diǎn)間隔相等兩次簡(jiǎn)單平均間隔不等先簡(jiǎn)單后加權(quán)相對(duì)指標(biāo)、平均指標(biāo)視情況選用：先平均再相除、先加總再相除、加權(quán)算術(shù)平均、加權(quán)調(diào)和平均等年份能源生產(chǎn)總量（萬(wàn)噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤）199419951996199719981187291290341326161324101240001命9蚊9毯4裕-召1穩(wěn)9蹈9擠8緞年明中灰國(guó)集能矛源局生汁產(chǎn)烈總玩量日期6月1日6月2日6月3日6月4日6月5日人數(shù)162人167人175人182人178人某犬企嘉業(yè)肝連滾續(xù)滾5燒天丙的間出棋勤擺人胸?cái)?shù)序燙時(shí)奸平蒸均被數(shù)丙與驢一咸般疏平胃均刷數(shù)賄的虧異盾同爬點(diǎn)艇：二晝者倉(cāng)都呼是久將辱現(xiàn)坐象票的休個(gè)刃別池?cái)?shù)躺量榜差孕異錢(qián)抽西象幻玉化糕，良概識(shí)括膀地進(jìn)反懸映瓣現(xiàn)貨象栗的倘一土般付水非平艘。計(jì)識(shí)算籍方抵法殘不揀同蹈；差爪異窄抽撓象靈化續(xù)不仔同困；序扛時(shí)筋平貍均圖數(shù)搏還彩可析解動(dòng)決喝某斤些位可忍比除性疫問(wèn)追題針。不同點(diǎn)

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序君時(shí)樣平埋均姐數(shù)融的掙計(jì)陳算摟方鞏法到：㈠絕對(duì)躬數(shù)苦動(dòng)江態(tài)態(tài)數(shù)崗列素的怠序菌時(shí)義平卡均穴數(shù)1.時(shí)期數(shù)列的序時(shí)平均數(shù)月份一二三四五六產(chǎn)量(萬(wàn)件)242028283029例2喜.時(shí)點(diǎn)油數(shù)據(jù)列恨的柿序蓋時(shí)姑平蘭均資數(shù)(辭1枝)吊如漲果端資儀料釘是裙連其續(xù)緞時(shí)四點(diǎn)麻資剛料寶，社可矛分矩為各二澆種王情題況芽：2).對(duì)非連續(xù)變動(dòng)的連續(xù)時(shí)點(diǎn)數(shù)列(即分組資料)1).對(duì)連續(xù)變動(dòng)的連續(xù)時(shí)點(diǎn)數(shù)列(即未分組資料)某蝕廠逼7慨月粒份潛的凝職愛(ài)工鍬人輝數(shù)潔自妹7騰月漏1假日掘至和7異月危1件0逗日沙為撈2興5摘8私人的，宏7簡(jiǎn)月指1卻1涉日伴起禁至息7置月弓底僵均斃為蜂2傅7凡9飼人角，先則逮該羽廠毅7肆月亞份召平愚均金職陳工石人拼數(shù)撕為：例⑵貞如障果傭資刮料怎是口間抄斷駁時(shí)澡點(diǎn)顧資頸料素，鍵也隨可姓分縱為艙二業(yè)種米情嚼況：1)對(duì)間隔相等的間斷時(shí)點(diǎn)資料某類(lèi)成早品弦?guī)爝h(yuǎn)存慢量獎(jiǎng)如躬下怖：現(xiàn)發(fā)假斗定克：反每甘天有變陶化火是倡均醫(yī)勻棗的足；妄本鞭月瓣初嘩與敬上吳月醒末衣的治庫(kù)行存虎量撒相銅等支。桌則妄各泉月除平盯均緣瑞庫(kù)勢(shì)存蹤蝶量蠻為厘：3月31日4月30日5月31日6月30日庫(kù)存量(件)3000330026802800例2釣)對(duì)間蜂隔隱不召等長(zhǎng)的繁間同斷旋時(shí)減點(diǎn)茅資燥料某子城煎市珠2醬0鼓0跑3題年施各匯時(shí)汪點(diǎn)摟的嘴人侄口志數(shù)日期1月1日5月1日8月1日12月31日人口數(shù)(萬(wàn)人)256.2257.1258.3259.4例三捐動(dòng)融態(tài)員數(shù)多列慌的蟻速農(nóng)度招分爐析弱指獄標(biāo)動(dòng)態(tài)源數(shù)見(jiàn)列盈的震速州度捏指恒標(biāo)莫有：尋發(fā)集展謠速嫌度寇增蜂長(zhǎng)納速辨度弊平套均筋發(fā)敢展販速鏡度獵平嬸均景增葡長(zhǎng)病速螺度一茅、團(tuán)發(fā)理展價(jià)速雙度反肝映饒社丹會(huì)慣經(jīng)到濟(jì)撕現(xiàn)蛋象桃發(fā)現(xiàn)展視程逝度碌的阻動(dòng)休態(tài)待相妥對(duì)侵指攻標(biāo)久。二紋、夜增如長(zhǎng)頸速靜度反購(gòu)映妄社拴會(huì)酷經(jīng)溪濟(jì)里現(xiàn)趨象叨增壁長(zhǎng)尼程鍵度最的脅動(dòng)損態(tài)四相次對(duì)軟指落標(biāo)鉗。注讀意晌：發(fā)佩展圓速錄度體與奧增櫻長(zhǎng)滔速吧度適性泳質(zhì)蘿不巾同怎。洗前溜者拜是順動(dòng)加態(tài)紙相睬對(duì)峽數(shù)代，都后梯者衡是梅強(qiáng)愈度慶相盒對(duì)弓數(shù)宜；定槐基怠增稱長(zhǎng)及速桑度蹤蝶與夜環(huán)遲比封增幻玉長(zhǎng)寒速蘭度塌之音間番沒(méi)勵(lì)有沃直擱接株的尸換敲算刑關(guān)黃系估。某臣省戶2液0碑0典0秀-夾2魄0宣0茫5暮年狠某半工烤業(yè)袋產(chǎn)技品玩產(chǎn)碧量年份200020012002200320042005發(fā)展水平:產(chǎn)量1104.31351.11707.02215.52872.43301.0增長(zhǎng)量累計(jì)-246.8602.71111.21768.12196.7逐期-246.8355.9508.5656.9428.6發(fā)展速度(%)定基100122.3154.6200.6260.1298.9環(huán)比-122.3126.3129.8129.7114.9增長(zhǎng)速度(%)定基-22.354.6100.6160.1198.9環(huán)比-22.326.329.829.714.9增長(zhǎng)1%絕對(duì)值-11.013.517.122.228.7例單熊位晌：柜萬(wàn)乒臺(tái)三聾、私平嫌均雪發(fā)單展窮速掃度無(wú)和很平蜘均叢增漿長(zhǎng)讀速援度平均赴發(fā)能展助速帝度欠是揀各酒個(gè)可環(huán)梁比何發(fā)座展戚速患度膏的避動(dòng)冊(cè)態(tài)毯平燒均數(shù)畫(huà)(灶序終時(shí)嚇平戲均部數(shù)檢)生，且說(shuō)斗明烈某幟種四現(xiàn)紫象遵在赴一貌個(gè)棍較章長(zhǎng)爭(zhēng)時(shí)期滾中誦逐校年昂平乓均涼發(fā)桃展毅變鐘化訊的癢程揀度；平均鋸增搖長(zhǎng)邀速爺度腎是宣各鑒個(gè)級(jí)環(huán)郊比卷增呼長(zhǎng)詠速豎度濕的矛動(dòng)江態(tài)陣平愿均數(shù)經(jīng)，購(gòu)說(shuō)絮明略某物種績(jī)現(xiàn)貧象掃在程一迎個(gè)慮較掩長(zhǎng)陪時(shí)圈期大中施逐歸年泳平映均增巨長(zhǎng)井變罩化伙的禍程襪度。㈠鑰平水均籌發(fā)女展昂速觸度1.幾何平均法，又稱水平法。⑴⑵⑶某褲企灰業(yè)盈總釘產(chǎn)郵值居資辛料基年第一年第二年第三年第四年第五年總產(chǎn)值(萬(wàn)元)270.1273.80289.20314.40322.30340.70環(huán)比發(fā)展速度(%)-101.37101.62108.71102.51105.71定基發(fā)展速度(%)-101.37107.07116.40119.33126.14例2躍.方程樹(shù)法甚，憑又助稱稱累賊計(jì)戰(zhàn)法蠢。在老實(shí)汪踐去中謝，陽(yáng)如娃果絲式長(zhǎng)垃期鎮(zhèn)計(jì)痛劃患按謎累精計(jì)根法匯制拳定挖，號(hào)則逢要唯求娃用方枕程民法超計(jì)橡算翻平兼均跡發(fā)鉤展亭速榴度。解這樣的高次方程，用查表法。水彼平認(rèn)法群與屠累飾計(jì)施法翁之甜比邀較淺：實(shí)際資料按水平法計(jì)算按累計(jì)法計(jì)算發(fā)展水平(萬(wàn)元)環(huán)比發(fā)展速度(%)定基發(fā)展速度(%)平均發(fā)展速度(%)推算定基發(fā)展速度(%)推算發(fā)展水平平均發(fā)展速度(%)推算定基發(fā)展速度(%)推算發(fā)展水平aX’YY’a’Y”a”基年270.1-100-100--100-第一年273.8101.37101.37104.75104.75282.93104.40104.40281.98第二年289.2105.62107.07104.75109.73296.38104.40108.99294.39第三年314.4108.71116.40104.75114.94310.45104.40113.79307.34第四年322.3102.51119.33104.75120.40325.19104.40118.80320.87第五年340.7105.71126.14104.75126.12340.64104.40124.02334.99合計(jì)1540.4-570.31-575.941555.58-570.001539.57㈡梳平必均萬(wàn)增近長(zhǎng)烘速虎度平糾均欣增狼長(zhǎng)核速武度汽=含平竊均采發(fā)擾展湖速弟度幟-奪1領(lǐng)(乳1外0梅0宗%徒)平均郊發(fā)易展圓速咐度埋大惠于垃“無(wú)1啟”刑，缸平歌均唉增脅長(zhǎng)群速濫度獎(jiǎng)就康為巾正握值牲。則遣稱束“鄰平秘均菌遞抽增府速零度依”父或亡“眨平窗均斜遞波增荷率壓”。平均究發(fā)涉展模速擔(dān)度甲小瓜于代“凍1械”勉，亡平浴均聽(tīng)增吧長(zhǎng)成速躁度慣就沫為杠負(fù)覺(jué)值猛。則咸稱失“殿平耕均濟(jì)遞壁減目速鋼度辭”厲或粉“相平場(chǎng)均欺遞音減護(hù)率?！?。第罰二鐘節(jié)概、渠時(shí)撿間關(guān)數(shù)父列副的親因腹素抓分恰解(幻玉一離)跟長(zhǎng)蝦期中趨乳勢(shì)垃(屋T德)長(zhǎng)悶期鐘趨霜?jiǎng)萁樽冿杽?dòng)華是釋時(shí)洲間民數(shù)妙列螺中樹(shù)最針基喪本雙的須規(guī)燙律組性捎變縱動(dòng)斑。己長(zhǎng)北期控趨禍勢(shì)般，泉是啊指句現(xiàn)德象喇在婦一魂個(gè)忍相斃當(dāng)翼長(zhǎng)月的臥時(shí)鮮期昏內(nèi)尖持林續(xù)水發(fā)恭展攜變芬化均的賴總兵態(tài)政勢(shì)荒，饒如慢持源續(xù)載上岔升治、尾下沉降塔和寬基坊本赴持同平膽。確長(zhǎng)鉗期撒趨清勢(shì)可變柏動(dòng)押是儉由并于眾現(xiàn)終象凝受貸到尊各剃個(gè)泡時(shí)高期輪普流遍餃的汪、但持槽續(xù)盜的抬、荷決梁定文性后的象基需本腿因微素布影去響俱的猶結(jié)掃果興。壁例匠如弓，蛋一館般劃情憂況慕下戰(zhàn)，蛋由鳴于支人睛口棉增貍長(zhǎng)扭、澆資潤(rùn)源壞開(kāi)定發(fā)矩、蛇科谷技杯進(jìn)藥步吵等恨因們素孟影斑響碧，夾社饒會(huì)份生屑產(chǎn)命的免總俘量坑呈曬增仁長(zhǎng)諸變棄動(dòng)啟的鑄趨匙勢(shì)風(fēng)。(專二匯)鍛季尸節(jié)明變勸動(dòng)蔽(亂S練)季翼節(jié)匯變掘動(dòng)騰，減是既指沈時(shí)啊間楚數(shù)萌列姥受杏自桑然尖季貪節(jié)飾變蠅換頓和傍社態(tài)會(huì)仍習(xí)炒俗前等礎(chǔ)因刃素獵影影響誦而紐奉發(fā)鄙生津的停有侍規(guī)灑律腐的撇周課期企性關(guān)波眼動(dòng)當(dāng)。餃例快如顆有慕許廁多斧商格品赴的擺銷(xiāo)查售閃隨寧季紗節(jié)潔變(殼三皺)溫循捉環(huán)第變壩動(dòng)喊(同C獻(xiàn))循幸環(huán)第變婆動(dòng)翁，影是霸指碎現(xiàn)販象歲受用多逆種腥因博素肥的脖影六響霧而推發(fā)儀生亭的港周雕期否性柏漲繁落純起梳伏諸波夾動(dòng)普。山其惱成勞因段比獨(dú)較擺復(fù)懂雜核，竄周吃期蹲一搜般上在侍一睜年民以巨上歌，嘆長(zhǎng)森短偏不獨(dú)一廳。虹如妖經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)濟(jì)嘩發(fā)牢展離的燭周陳期纖性芳波坦動(dòng)禾，辮自請(qǐng)然系界跪果睛樹(shù)只結(jié)弟果窩數(shù)翠量聞的幻玉大餐年感小寇年蛾現(xiàn)療象惹等莫，果都司是順循蝕環(huán)惕變?cè)S動(dòng)向現(xiàn)貨象球。(煌四搏)泳不濤規(guī)昌則捉變毯動(dòng)茫(埋I護(hù))不午規(guī)撕則軍變防動(dòng)賓，罪是床指劣除常了練上攀述舍各鉗種賴變膝動(dòng)橫以破外扁，?，F(xiàn)拋象乞受倦偶君然擺因利素消或府不碰明蝴原晌因響影拘響上而劇發(fā)拖生途的倍無(wú)利規(guī)碧律刺性駕的逗變熄動(dòng)姐。凝如豈政阻策校動(dòng)贈(zèng)蕩辯、圓戰(zhàn)鄙爭(zhēng)筆爆忙發(fā)薪等寶。下巡壽面必，刺我艘們勇著麗重涼介嶺紹今實(shí)太踐減中假最搜常弓用隙的飾長(zhǎng)捕期蘋(píng)趨糕勢(shì)插和估季苦節(jié)脖變和動(dòng)冤分刷析嗎。長(zhǎng)灰期仗趨皆勢(shì)似分孝量姥圖季斜節(jié)賤變蒸動(dòng)旺分遇量缺圖循叼環(huán)兇波鮮動(dòng)尼分脅量著圖不朱規(guī)新則民變翠動(dòng)杰分雖量沖圖時(shí)括間愚序槍列暑分屢析蓮模墊型1淡.蠶加逮法逮模永型Y們=炎T筋+市S近+釣C腿+頓I假掠定動(dòng)：蘆四梢種隱因龍素考變燒動(dòng)惱的膠原雄因奸各睜不浮相絡(luò)關(guān)易，因法而須對(duì)良Y援的撒影必響兇是赤相臘互香獨(dú)碌立敘的稻，僻且勵(lì)具棗有姓與Y同圣樣窯的踩度蛇量朝單撲位宵。2甜.挨乘倚法克模設(shè)型Y默=記T援×伍C道×者S帶×備I假修定送：款四營(yíng)種湖因肌素抹對(duì)Y徹的忙影導(dǎo)響戲是簡(jiǎn)相攝互補(bǔ)獨(dú)消立壯的奏，T甲與望Y卸單衛(wèi)位刮相釣同桑，丈C誦、凍S漿、陳I以呢百壓分舊數(shù)尤表該示鋤。第皺三翻節(jié)佛長(zhǎng)悠期敲趨止勢(shì)師分薪析長(zhǎng)期箭趨綱勢(shì)工就早是腳指夾某稅一駁現(xiàn)鈔象斯在餐一濕個(gè)季相害當(dāng)師長(zhǎng)旦的鐮時(shí)指期內(nèi)膛持肅續(xù)診發(fā)宿展煌變狠化娛的癥趨殲勢(shì)厘。薪(粉向公上懇或乘向釘下訓(xùn)變衫化器)測(cè)女定羞長(zhǎng)墊期弦趨五勢(shì)都的乖目趟的窩主鈔要澆有詢?nèi)齽駛€(gè)性：把握腥現(xiàn)修象槐的災(zāi)趨盟勢(shì)疤變躬化猶；從數(shù)字量層方躺面夾研渡究秒現(xiàn)服象從發(fā)蒙展價(jià)的雹規(guī)械律靈性英，距探深求廈合堂適蒜趨男勢(shì)鼓線巖；為測(cè)仍定階季淡節(jié)絕變菊動(dòng)驅(qū)的幻玉需輸要搏。長(zhǎng)抱期段趨任勢(shì)云的舍分兩類(lèi)線陵性匠趨奏勢(shì)典（勁L民i走n結(jié)e點(diǎn)a石r淋t賺r觸e開(kāi)n澤d豆）非苦線飛性腫趨撒勢(shì)面（嘉N自o嘉n長(zhǎng)-竿l色i懇n覺(jué)e渠a警r亦t傅r灣e鞭n保d辰）測(cè)崗定悶長(zhǎng)開(kāi)期羞趨雕勢(shì)鉆常旅用劃的圓主城要阿方貍法穴有撓：移動(dòng)閃平篩均爹法銜；最小梅平送方宗法篇。月份123456789101112增加值50.5455251.550.455.55358.45759.25860.5某塌工惰廠謎某表年熔各摟月影增戴加俱值母完飯成層情腹況單怕位環(huán)：加萬(wàn)帳元例一尖、讀移科動(dòng)輔平任均侍法月份123456789101112增加值y(萬(wàn)元)50.5455251.550.455.55358.45759.25860.5三項(xiàng)移動(dòng)平均yc-49.249.551.352.55355.656.158.258.159.2-∴趨窩勢(shì)云值額項(xiàng)撫數(shù)梅=饞原粒數(shù)逐列皂項(xiàng)啞數(shù)端-勁移的動(dòng)豬平阻均刮項(xiàng)有數(shù)脆+妹1=瞇1捉2威-乏3喬+指1政=豬1昂0注條1向：若猾采勇用被奇愁數(shù)份項(xiàng)費(fèi)移拘動(dòng)鳴平檔均獨(dú)(黨如登上浩例剛“意三攝項(xiàng)鍵”告)禮，墻則肯平宅均錘值橡是探對(duì)斤準(zhǔn)展在第奇惠項(xiàng)濁的堂居訓(xùn)中舊時(shí)勵(lì)間冬處濃。臥一前次道可經(jīng)得眨趨槐勢(shì)著值海；若甜采嬌用礙偶究數(shù)疼項(xiàng)屢移奴動(dòng)匠平苦均搞，肺則羽平捧均招值父也龜居郵中畢，掙因知未誕對(duì)懲準(zhǔn)糾原貍來(lái)皇的盈時(shí)緣瑞間頭，泊還撇要套再修計(jì)像算車(chē)一距次扛平捐均異數(shù)蓬，貪故殲一益般遵都福用配奇齡數(shù)筒項(xiàng)膠移妻動(dòng)外平伯均抵。注偽2礦：修烤勻泉后陶的滿數(shù)緣瑞列陸，趕較礦原本數(shù)壺列運(yùn)項(xiàng)喪數(shù)碧少墊。芳(銜在俘進(jìn)辯行揉統(tǒng)荒計(jì)同分吳析型時(shí)秘，邀若律需棕要粉兩騰端遣數(shù)貍據(jù)技，多則幣此繪法竊不排宜杏使沒(méi)用族)注申3闖：取焦幾匪項(xiàng)情進(jìn)脊行型移兄動(dòng)分平境均鵲為臂好下，酸一伸般飼若丸現(xiàn)蒜象虎有鳳周今期旁變重動(dòng)感，傲則棚以斤周豬期弄為視長(zhǎng)囑度密。答例引，腹季噸度摸資咱料表可岸四車(chē)項(xiàng)最移績(jī)動(dòng)植平護(hù)均農(nóng)；迫各辟年韻月失資積料荒，栗可旬十蘿二隆項(xiàng)泥移橡動(dòng)懼平篇均較；啦五路年翁一瞞周討期冰，撒可友五尸項(xiàng)恨移剃動(dòng)客平燥均無(wú)。嗚移鑼動(dòng)崖平拳均途法沸可列消濕除吉周賠期胞變?nèi)珓?dòng)畜。月份123456789101112y50.5455251.550.455.55358.45759.25860.5四項(xiàng)移動(dòng)平均49.849.752.452.654.356.056.958.258.7二項(xiàng)移正yc49.851.152.553.555.256.557.658.5用僅四從項(xiàng)迅移京動(dòng)榜平吹均名后政的盾資旺料芝作在圖卵，吹趨容勢(shì)封更錘明異顯介，等上協(xié)升拆得傲更斥均花勻它，洪可薯見(jiàn)戒修測(cè)勻鋪的某項(xiàng)訪數(shù)妻越賓多概，他效拉果柄越歡好歉。探(武但陜丟昏掉挺的貌數(shù)剝據(jù)送多扇一艘些亦)仍甘用鏟上滑例鬧資膚料疾：由炎此處可呼見(jiàn)塵，穗該讀廠彎的蹦增棄加各值欺趨悠勢(shì)聲是仰上諷升阿的乳。圖示三欠、擁最沿小穴平輕方央法即盒對(duì)怒原盆有物動(dòng)住態(tài)棗數(shù)年列住配伐合騙一獨(dú)條勇適勒當(dāng)決的罵趨羊勢(shì)課線恢來(lái)宮進(jìn)翠行補(bǔ)修戚勻更。艷這啦條翅趨女勢(shì)扶線迅可版以吵是巴直扇線填，拉也堪可濫以竟是馳曲剪線稠；遠(yuǎn)這叼條歇趨治勢(shì)濤線逢必盯須遣滿根足僵最賀基盡本搶的疑要不求抵。蜜即宵：㈠怠直腸線勢(shì)方塌程當(dāng)現(xiàn)臨象宏的旦發(fā)鼠展咱，眾其眨逐牌期輸增若長(zhǎng)繼量釀大固體和上攏相錘等裝時(shí)廉。該壁方獨(dú)程惑的肚一盲般猜形腔式糕為：用截高串等自數(shù)倉(cāng)學(xué)延求訓(xùn)偏痛導(dǎo)量數(shù)挎方很法禿，頌得梢到嗎以揪下?lián)衤?lián)凍立破方亦程愧組鑄：為柳使蛙計(jì)滋算繁方揚(yáng)便眼，域可加設(shè)餃t荷:奇雅數(shù)第項(xiàng)：偶嚷數(shù)繪項(xiàng)：這取樣凳使，即辮上氣述剛方程程屢組歷可陽(yáng)簡(jiǎn)撤化紀(jì)為擊：tytyt2yc逐期增長(zhǎng)量-1150.5-555.512147.98--945-4058149.12-5.5-752-3644950.267-551.5-257.52551.40-0.5-350.4-151.2952.54-0.9-155.5-55.5153.685.115353154.82-2.5358.4175.2955.965.45572852557.10-1.4759.2414.44958.242.29585228159.38-1.21160.5665.512160.522.5合計(jì)651.0326.4572651.00-仍宴用晉上達(dá)例壩資既料敵：若粘預(yù)盟測(cè)蠟明克年朽二堡月肥份目增槐加倦值柴，懷則早：㈡信拋款物陶線乏方勤程例當(dāng)現(xiàn)象的發(fā)展，其二級(jí)增長(zhǎng)量大體上相時(shí)。某賤地梯區(qū)源1編9棉9搏7海-肯2羞0四0屈5觀年塞國(guó)名內(nèi)稅生糾產(chǎn)妖總尿值揪的外動(dòng)閣態(tài)省數(shù)休列配朋合抗拋果物懂線子計(jì)宣算藥過(guò)裂程攻如約下潮表手：年份GDP(萬(wàn)元)ytt2t4tyt2yyc19973941-416256-15764630563897.5619984285-3981-12774383224259.9419994736-2416-9472189444854.6720005652-111-565256525681.7620017020000006741.2020027859111785978598032.9920039313241618626372529557.1420041173839813521410564211313.642005131254162565250021000013302.50合計(jì)676420607087053748672767641.40例㈢懂指懷數(shù)癢曲描線提方株程例避題謠見(jiàn)趴教胡材逆P涌1按6毀4帶-碑1指6漢6當(dāng)現(xiàn)象的發(fā)展，環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)速度大體上相等時(shí)。該方程的一般形式為：第腳四柱節(jié)虎季洋度芹變括動(dòng)膠的沉測(cè)賞定拖與符預(yù)跌測(cè)一獵、成季幼節(jié)警變疊動(dòng)籌分喉析沙的撐意絕義測(cè)定痕季動(dòng)節(jié)賠變或動(dòng)四的獻(xiàn)資維料細(xì)時(shí)珠間死至亮少套要夢(mèng)有厚三慚個(gè)侮周惰期吼以閃上水，鬧如眼季蹄節(jié)況資國(guó)料魔，貫至制少瞎要在有寧1通2書(shū)季侍，裝月愉度夕資獲料記至賢少缺要罩有雁3斥6吉個(gè)餅月毛等呈，工以舉避漂免濁資區(qū)料安太劉少巨而嚇產(chǎn)煉生避偶丘然艱性凈。測(cè)壩定召季繪節(jié)禽變置動(dòng)攤的吹方逗法迎有圖二貿(mào)種并：按月屋平祝均姥法掛，怎不沃考跨慮烤長(zhǎng)隱期萍趨獵勢(shì)療的艇影陡響斃(朱假董定腿不撫存芹在劃長(zhǎng)水期維趨揮勢(shì)劫)晴，派直被接焦利廢用押原復(fù)始摔動(dòng)歌態(tài)繞數(shù)贏列百來(lái)魔計(jì)射算企；移動(dòng)形平廳均棕趨算勢(shì)房誠(chéng)剔智除批法巴，忘即吸考踩慮呢長(zhǎng)棋期命趨慮勢(shì)擔(dān)的鍵存趨在灣，扮剔滿除難其反影縱響后后翼再剃進(jìn)爹行擊計(jì)擾算除，秒故尾?？s慧用鄭此顫法蹲。二翻、義按杠月專平由均膜法衰測(cè)柄定撇季跑節(jié)霧變之動(dòng)也皮稱提按怖季烏平統(tǒng)均摧法塵。稻若丸為回月毛度出資配料黑就囑按譜月勢(shì)平牙均董；匆若黑為稠季錦度齡資碧料井則屈按安季蒸平勤均塌。其步窮驟過(guò)如咱下墊：列饞表薯，賄將議各齊年鍛同員月穩(wěn)(陣季仰)宰的伴數(shù)規(guī)值祥列擊在完同激一藥欄衰內(nèi)通；將羊各汁年利同堂月怖(徐季對(duì))揪數(shù)明值蠶加仔總東，俊并鬼求乖出黎月星(缸季作)呈平刑均異數(shù)淡；將富所溉有彩同雪月螺(昌季計(jì))蛇數(shù)型值膝加錘總固，逗求跪出繭總嚇的搶月歸(悔季別)炎平磚均撕數(shù)奏；求久季屯節(jié)舍比腥率良(昂或敘季乘節(jié)杏指崖數(shù)島)壓。某數(shù)地吃區(qū)捕各儀月問(wèn)毛團(tuán)線妖銷(xiāo)戰(zhàn)售墻量嘉季蘆節(jié)饅變獸動(dòng)陜計(jì)濤算擔(dān)表單仇位攔：隊(duì)百撞千統(tǒng)克月份年份123456789101112合計(jì)第一年150904026