氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件

氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與適應(yīng)機(jī)制報(bào)告人:王曉霞羅煥娟氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與適應(yīng)機(jī)制1主要內(nèi)容從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)視角認(rèn)識(shí)氣候變化課題內(nèi)容匯報(bào)氣象災(zāi)害社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響評(píng)估方法災(zāi)害脆弱性評(píng)價(jià):氣候變化背景下中國城市水資源農(nóng)業(yè)和農(nóng)村的氣候變化適應(yīng)研究農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)保險(xiǎn)的氣象需求分析主要內(nèi)容2FigureAHistoricalandprojectedGHGemissionsbysector(bysource)日Transport(co2construction(CO2)口Buildings(co2口Fugitiveemissionsc2)Industrialprocesses日Aariculture(nonC2dWaste(non-CO2)■Energy-related20002019emissions(non-CO2)口ndustrialprocesses(non-CO2口Allnon-C2emIssIcnSource:WRI(2019),IEA(inpress),IEA(2019),EPA(forthcoming),Houghton(2019)FigureAHistoricalandprojec3Part:從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)視角認(rèn)識(shí)氣候變化氣候是公共物品heclimateisapublicgood氣候變化問題的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原因是溫室氣體排放帶來的外部性Climatechangeisaresultoftheexternalityassociatedwithgreenhouse-gas溫室氣體排放者沒有承擔(dān)其排放成本,而是將其成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給全社會(huì)和未來itentailscoststhatarenotpaidforbythosewhocreatetheemissions·除非實(shí)施有效的政策干預(yù),市場無法糾正外部性。Human-inducedclimatechangeisanexternality,onethatisnotcorrectedthroughanyinstitutionormarket,unlesspolicyintervenesPart:從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)視角認(rèn)識(shí)氣候變化4氣候變化外部性與眾不同氣候變化是全球性的。Itisglobalinitscausesandconsequences.氣候變化的影響是長期和持續(xù)的Theimpactsofclimatechangearelongtermandpersistent.氣候變化的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響充滿了不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Uncertaintiesandrisksintheeconomicimpactsarepervasive氣候變化帶來的主要的不可逆的變化具有非線性的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響Thereisaseriousriskofmajor,irreversiblechangewithnon-marginaleconomiceffects氣候變化外部性與眾不同5·全球的減緩和適應(yīng)活動(dòng)在某種程度上也具有公共物品性質(zhì),要避免搭便車行為,需要有效率的公共政策的干預(yù)Aspectsofadaptationtoclimatechangealsohavesomeofthecharacteristicsofpublicgoodsandrequirepublicpolicyintervention適應(yīng)也面臨信息不充分和正的外部性等各種市場失靈的挑戰(zhàn)efficientadaptationtoclimatechangeisalsohinderedbymarketfailures,notablyinadequateinformationonfutureclimatechangeandpositiveexternalitiesintheprovisionofadaptation據(jù)測算,減少溫室氣體排放的成本大約將是全球平均GDP的1AnestimateofresourcecostssuggeststhattheannualcostofcuttingtotalGHGtoaboutthreequartersofcurrentlevelsby2050,consistentwitha550ppmCo2stabilisationlevel,willbeintherange-1.0to+3.5%ofGDP,withanaverageestimateofapproximately1%.·全球的減緩和適應(yīng)活動(dòng)在某種程度上也具有公共物品性質(zhì),要避免6從倫理角度看,適應(yīng)要求發(fā)達(dá)國家對(duì)最脆弱的發(fā)展中國家的強(qiáng)有力的支持。后者嚴(yán)重缺乏必須的資金,并且承受主要由發(fā)達(dá)國家歷史上溫室氣體排放帶來的巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Theethicsofadaptationimplystrongsupportfromtherichcountriestothemostvulnerable從倫理角度看,適應(yīng)要求發(fā)達(dá)國家對(duì)最脆弱的發(fā)展中國家的強(qiáng)有力的7Part:小結(jié)氣候變化領(lǐng)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與其它領(lǐng)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)一樣,涉及廣泛的范圍,內(nèi)容豐富和復(fù)雜。用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的分析工具研究氣候變化帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,不同應(yīng)對(duì)戰(zhàn)略的費(fèi)用效益分析,政策方案對(duì)不同國家、群體的影響,為政策干預(yù)提供定量定性的研究基礎(chǔ)。Part:小結(jié)8part:課題成果匯報(bào)極端天氣氣候事件的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)影響評(píng)估與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理(中國氣象局2019年氣候變化專項(xiàng),編號(hào)CCSF2019-2)part:課題成果匯報(bào)9研究背景●根據(jù)中國的《氣候變化國家評(píng)佔(zhàn)報(bào)告》,盡管存在許多不確定性,初步研究結(jié)果仍表明:氣候變化對(duì)中國的影響以負(fù)面為主,并且某些影響具有不可逆性面對(duì)氣候變化所帶來的負(fù)面影響,必須采取有效的適應(yīng)措施來應(yīng)對(duì),而制定有效的適應(yīng)措施的前提是能夠識(shí)別和測度影響研究背景10氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件11氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件12氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件13氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件14氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件15氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件16氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件17氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件18氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件19氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件20氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件21氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件22氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件23氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件24氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件25氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件26氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件27氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件28氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件29氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件30氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件31氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件32氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件33氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件34氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件35氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件36氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件37氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件38氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件39氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件40氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件41氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件42氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件43氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件44氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件45氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件46氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件47氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件48氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件49氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件50氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件51氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件52氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件53氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件54氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件55氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件56氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件57氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)及適應(yīng)機(jī)制課件58氣候變化經(jī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