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2001年對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)英語(yǔ)學(xué)院761基礎(chǔ)英語(yǔ)考研真題及詳解PartOe:VocabularyI.Checkthewordorphraseyoubelieveisclosestinmeaningtothekeyword.(7.5%)l.RavageA.toenrageB.toplunderC.todevourD.towearaway【答案】B查看答案【解析】ravage毀壞,掠奪。plunder搶劫,掠奪。devour(火災(zāi)等)毀滅,破壞。wearaway磨損,(時(shí)間)消逝。2.EdifyA.toscoldB.topraiseC.toimproveandenlightenD.tohaveexceptionalpleasurefrom【答案】C查看答案【解析】edify教導(dǎo),啟發(fā)。enlighten啟發(fā),啟蒙。scold責(zé)罵,斥責(zé)。praise稱贊,歌頌。exceptional例外的,特殊的。3.HaggleA.towrangleordisputeB.toscoldC.tolieD.tobeg【答案】A查看答案【解析】haggle(就價(jià)格、條件等)爭(zhēng)論,討價(jià)還價(jià)。wrangle爭(zhēng)論,爭(zhēng)吵;dispute辯論,爭(zhēng)執(zhí)。scold責(zé)罵,斥責(zé)。4.CurtailA.tocurlorintertwineB.todepriveofC.toconfuseD.tocutshort【答案】D查看答案【解析】curtail縮減,減少。cutshort縮減,截短。curl(使)卷曲。intertwine(使)纏繞。depriveof剝奪,使喪失。5.SupplicateA.tostrangleB.togrowweakC.tobeghumbleD.tocurse【答案】C查看答案【解析】supplicate哀求,祈求。beghumble謙卑地請(qǐng)求。strangle勒死,絞殺。curse詛咒,咒罵。6.ExtolA.toannounceB.tocollectC.toscoldorharassD.topraise【答案】D查看答案【解析】extol贊美。praise稱贊,歌頌。announce宣布。scold責(zé)罵;harass煩惱。7.FacilitateA.toteaseB.tomakeeasyC.topretendD.tocongratulate【答案】B查看答案【解析】facilitate使容易,使便利。makeeasy使輕松,變得容易。tease取笑,欺負(fù)。pretend假裝,裝扮。congratulate祝賀,慶祝。8.CavortA.toprancearoundB.toflingC.tofindfaultwithD.toenjoyinacarefreemanner【答案】A查看答案【解析】cavort騰躍。prance騰躍,歡躍。fling猛投,拋,擲。findfaultwith挑剔,找…的毛病。carefree輕松愉快的,不負(fù)責(zé)的。9.SullyA.tokeephidden;makesecretB.tohinderC.todefile;soilD.toputtheblameonsomeone【答案】C查看答案【解析】sully弄臟,玷污(名譽(yù)等)。defile玷污,褻瀆;soil弄臟,污辱。hinder妨礙,阻止。puttheblameonsomeone把責(zé)任推到別人的頭上。10.UsurpA.tochargehighinterestratesB.tointrudeuponC.todisturbD.toseizepowerorposition【答案】D查看答案【解析】usurp篡奪,侵占。chargehighinterestrates以高利率計(jì)費(fèi)。intrudeupon打擾,侵入。disturb擾亂,妨礙。11.GoadA.toannoyB.toinciteorspurC.toargueD.tobeg【答案】B查看答案【解析】goad驅(qū)策,激勵(lì)。incite激勵(lì),煽動(dòng);spur鞭策,刺激。annoy招惹,使煩惱。argue爭(zhēng)論,說(shuō)服。12.AugmentA.tourgeB.todisputeC.topromiseD.toincrease;addto【答案】D查看答案【解析】augment增加,增大。urge催促,力勸。dispute爭(zhēng)論,反對(duì)。13.InundateA.toflood;delugeB.tobreakdownC.toretreatD.toenterintoanagreement【答案】A查看答案【解析】inundate淹沒(méi),泛濫。deluge淹,浸。breakdown失敗,毀壞。retreat撤退,退卻。enterintoanagreement達(dá)成一致,訂約。14.WaiveA.toforgoB.todemandC.tolookforD.tobeirresolute【答案】A查看答案【解析】waive放棄。forgo作罷,放棄。irresolute猶豫不決的。15.ConfoundA.toimpressB.tobringtogetherC.tofrustrateD.toconfuse;perplex【答案】D查看答案【解析】confound混淆,使迷惑。confuse迷惑,使糊涂;perplex困惑。impress使銘記,留下印象。bringtogether使和解。frustrate挫敗,使泄氣。II.Checkthewordorphraseyoubelieveisbesttofinintheblankineachsentence.(7.5%)1.Theteacher________thedozingstudenttopayattention.A.admonishedB.administeredC.adjudicatedD.adjusted【答案】A查看答案【解析】admonish訓(xùn)誡,警告。administer管理,執(zhí)行。adjudicate判決,裁定。adjust調(diào)整,校準(zhǔn)。2.Hisexplanationdidnot________ofanymisunderstanding.A.permeateB.permitC.perplexD.perpetrate【答案】B查看答案【解析】permit允許,容許。permeate透入。perplex困惑。perpetrate犯(罪,錯(cuò)誤),行詐。3.Hefollowedhis________andgavethestrangeralift.A.impulsionB.impulseC.conscientiousD.conscious【答案】C查看答案【解析】句意:他本著良心,對(duì)陌生人施以援手。conscientious有(憑)良心的,誠(chéng)心誠(chéng)意的。impulsion沖動(dòng)。impulse沖動(dòng),推動(dòng)力。conscious有意識(shí)的,有知覺(jué)的。4.Manyalcoholicsare________drinkers.A.compatibleB.competentC.competitiveD.compulsive【答案】D查看答案【解析】compulsive強(qiáng)迫(性)的,不由自主的。compatible協(xié)調(diào)的,一致的。competent有能力的,勝任的。competitive競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的。5.Thecomputerwas________alowbuzz.A.dismissingB.emittingC.admittingD.omitting【答案】B查看答案【解析】emit發(fā)出,輻射。dismiss解散,讓離開。admit容許,承認(rèn)。omit省略,疏忽。6.Shehasafriendly,________personality.A.genuineB.genitiveC.generativeD.genial【答案】D查看答案【解析】genial親切的。genuine真實(shí)的,誠(chéng)懇的。genitive領(lǐng)屬關(guān)系的。generative生產(chǎn)的,再生的。7.Thewoundedmanclungtolife________.A.tenaciouslyB.tantalizinglyC.tenablyD.tendentiously【答案】A查看答案【解析】tenaciously頑強(qiáng)地。tantalizingly……得令人著急。tenably合理地,可維持地。tendentiously有傾向地,有偏見地。8.Idon’tseehowyourstatement________tomyquestion.A.retainsB.detainsC.pertainsD.abstains【答案】C查看答案【解析】pertain適合,屬于。retain保持,保留。detain拘留,留住。abstain戒除,放棄。9.Anneloudly________herbeliefsintoeveryconversation.A.obtrudesB.obsessesC.obviatesD.obtains【答案】A查看答案【解析】obtrude強(qiáng)行,強(qiáng)加。obsess迷住,使困擾。obviate消除,排除。obtain獲得。10.Tombragsabouthiswork,buthisbossconsidershima________.A.nonsenseB.noneventC.nonentityD.nonchalant【答案】C查看答案【解析】nonentity不存在的東西,無(wú)足輕重的人。nonsense謬論,無(wú)意義的事。nonevent大肆宣揚(yáng)即將來(lái)臨而并未發(fā)生的事。nonchalant冷淡的,若無(wú)其事的。11.Ed’swifehasawayofbreakingintoseriousconversationswith_______smalltalk.A.impertinentB.pertinaciousC.pertinentD.impertinacious【答案】A查看答案【解析】句意:Ed的妻子有一種習(xí)慣,就是用不相關(guān)的閑聊來(lái)打斷嚴(yán)肅的談話。impertinent無(wú)關(guān)的,不恰當(dāng)?shù)?。pertinacious固執(zhí)的,難消除的。pertinent有關(guān)的,中肯的。impertinacious為生造詞。12.Thepowertoconfirmpresidentialappointments________intheSenate.A.reseatsB.reservesC.residesD.resits【答案】C查看答案【解析】句意:對(duì)總統(tǒng)的任命給予批準(zhǔn)的權(quán)力歸屬于參議院。reside(權(quán)力等)屬于。reseat使復(fù)位,使再坐。reserve儲(chǔ)備,保存。resit(考試不及格后)再考,重考。13.TheNileRiver________siltovertheagestoformadelta.A.depositedB.demotedC.deportedD.depraved【答案】A查看答案【解析】句意:尼羅河常年的泥沙沉淀形成了三角洲。deposit沉淀,堆積。demote使降級(jí)。deport將……驅(qū)逐出境。deprave使墮落,使腐敗。14.Hewaselectedbya________ofthetwopoliticalparties.A.infusionB.fusionC.confusionD.injunction【答案】B查看答案【解析】fusion(政黨的)聯(lián)合。infusion注入,灌輸。confusion混亂,混淆。injunction禁令。15.Hehadwrittena________ofasymphonybeforehisdeath.A.fragmentB.fractionC.fictionD.diction【答案】A查看答案【解析】fragment碎片,片斷,(文藝作品等)未完成的部分。fraction小部分,分?jǐn)?shù)。fiction虛構(gòu),小說(shuō)。diction措辭,用語(yǔ)。PartTwo:UsageI.Ineachofthesentencesbelow,choosethewordinparenthesesthatiscorrectorpreferredusage.(15%)1.Theweatherforecastsaysitis(apt,likely,liable)toraintoday.【答案】likely查看答案【解析】句意:天氣預(yù)報(bào)說(shuō)今天可能會(huì)下雨。2.Sheisan(alumnus,alumni,alumna,alumnae)ofthelocalcollege.【答案】alumna查看答案【解析】alumna女畢業(yè)生,女校友。句意:她是一名當(dāng)?shù)貙W(xué)院的畢業(yè)生。3.Thewordredhasanunpleasant(connotation,denotation)formanypeople.【答案】connotation查看答案【解析】句意:“Red”這個(gè)詞對(duì)很多人來(lái)說(shuō)包含令人不愉快的內(nèi)涵。4.(Becauseof,Dueto)thebadweather,wearrivedlate.【答案】Dueto查看答案【解析】句意:都因?yàn)檫@糟糕的天氣,我們遲到了。dueto因?yàn)?,由于。常指這個(gè)原因會(huì)造成不好的結(jié)果。5.Onecouldsaythatallcatsare(egoists,egotists).【答案】egoists查看答案【解析】句意:可以說(shuō)所有的貓都是自我主義者。6.Theaudienceyawnedandseemed(disinterested,uninterested)inthespeech.【答案】uninterested查看答案【解析】句意:聽眾開始大哈欠了,看起來(lái)他們對(duì)這演講不感興趣。7.Mylittlesonis(anxiously,eagerly)lookingforwardtoChristmas.【答案】eagerly查看答案【解析】句意:我的小兒子急切地盼望圣誕節(jié)的到來(lái)。8.Hehasa(contemptible,contemptuous)attitudetowardsloppywork.【答案】contemptuous查看答案【解析】句意:他對(duì)無(wú)聊的工作表現(xiàn)出輕蔑的態(tài)度。contemptuous輕蔑的。contemptible可鄙的。9.TheGrandCanyonisof(incomparable,uncomparable)beauty.【答案】incomparable查看答案【解析】句意:大峽谷的壯美無(wú)與倫比。10.My(ophthalmologist,optometrist)willsoonbeoperatingonthecataractinmylefteye.【答案】ophthalmologist查看答案【解析】句意:我的眼科醫(yī)師馬上會(huì)為我的左眼做白內(nèi)障手術(shù)。ophthalmologist眼科醫(yī)師。optometrist驗(yàn)光師。11.Golfisthe(vocation,avocation)ofaprofessionalgolfer.【答案】vocation查看答案【解析】vocation職業(yè),行業(yè)。avocation(個(gè)人)副業(yè),業(yè)余愛好。12.Yourworkforthecommitteehasbeenmost(credible,creditable,credulous).【答案】creditable查看答案【解析】句意:你為委員會(huì)所做的工作是最值得稱贊的。creditable值得贊揚(yáng)的,應(yīng)予肯定的。credible可靠的。credulous輕信的。13.Thisisthemost(historic,historical)buildinginthetown.【答案】historic查看答案【解析】句意:這是這座城鎮(zhèn)里歷史上最為有名的建筑。historic歷史上著名的,有歷史性的。historical與歷史有關(guān)的,歷史(上)的。14.Ican’tstandyour(continual,continuous)interruption.【答案】continual查看答案【解析】句意:我不能忍受你反復(fù)打斷我的講話。continuous和continual的區(qū)別:(1)搭配區(qū)別:continuous可以做表語(yǔ)或定語(yǔ)becontinuous或continuous+名詞;continual只做定語(yǔ)continual+名詞;(2)詞意的不同:continual反復(fù),不停止(happenrepeatedly),如continualknocksonthedoor反復(fù)的敲門聲;continuous連續(xù)性的=unbroken(lackofinterruption),如acontinuousline一條不間斷的線。15.Ifyouhaveacoughaccompanied(by,with)afever,seeadoctor.【答案】with查看答案【解析】句意:如果你咳嗽伴有發(fā)燒,就要去看醫(yī)生。這里accompany在被動(dòng)語(yǔ)態(tài)中,當(dāng)指的是人時(shí),用在它后的介詞是by,指伴隨他人。如:ShewenttoEuropeaccompaniedbyhercolleague.她和她的同事一道去歐洲。不是指人的情況則用with,如:Thesalmonwasaccompaniedwithadeliciouslettucesalad.伴有可口的生菜沙拉的鮭魚。II.Fillinthemissingwords:(20%)ITakeforinstancetheeveningofDecember31,1994,whenIbeganmyassignment(1) theforeignaffairscolumnistforTheNewYorkTimes.Istartedthecolumn(2) writingfromTokyo,andwhenIarrivedattheOkuraHotel(3) alongtranspacificflight,Icalledroomservice(4) onesimplerequest:“Couldyoupleasesendme(5) fouroranges.”Iamaddicted(6) citrusandIneededafix.Itseemedtomeasimple(7) orderwhenItelephoneditin,andthepersonontheotherend(8) tounderstand.Abouttwentyminutes(9) therewasaknockatmydoor.Aroomservicewaiterwasstandingthere(10) hisperfectlycreaseduniform.Infrontofhimwasacart(11) byastarchedwhitetablecloth.(12) thetableclothwerefourtall(13) offresh-squeezedorangejuice,(14) glasssetregally(15) asmallsilverbowlofice.【答案】(1)as(2)by(3)after(4)with(5)up(6)to(7)enough(8)seemed(9)later(10)in(11)covered(12)on(13)glasses(14)each(15)inIIIbelievethat(16) youwanttounderstandthepost-ColdWarworldyou(17) tostartbyunderstandingthatanewinternationalsystem(18) succeededit—globalization.(19) is“TheOneBigThing”peopleshouldfocuson.Globalizationisnottheonlything(20) eventsintheworldtoday,buttothe(21) thatthereisaNorthStarandaworldwideshaping(22) ,itisthissystem.Whatisnewisthe(23) ;whatis(24) ispowerpolitics,chaos,clashingcivilizations(25) liberalism.(26) whatisthedramaofthepost-ColdWarworldistheinteraction(27) thisnewsystem(28) alltheseoldpassionsandaspirations.Itisacomplexdrama,(29) thefinalactstillnotwritten.【答案】(16)if(17)have(18)has(19)That(20)influencing(21)extent(22)force(23)systems(24)old(25)and(26)and(27)between(28)and(29)withIIIElectionsalonewillneverbeenoughtoensure(30) governance;RussiaandPakistanareproof(31) ofthat.Atthesame(32) ,justinstallingmodernoperating(33) andsoftwareinacountry,(34) holdingregularelectionsthatcan(35) corruptleaders,willneverbe(36) either.ThatiswhytheWisest(37) indevelopingcountrieswillbe(38) whounderstandquickestthatwithouttheherdtherewillbeno(39) ,andwithoutbetterso,wareand(40) systemstherewillbenoherd.【答案】(30)good(31)enough(32)time(33)system(34)without(35)remove(36)enough(37)leaders(38)those(39)growth(40)operatingPartThree:ReadingandWritingI.Readthefollowingessayandanswerthequestionsbriefly.(25%)InrecentyearsitseemsthatlanguageasitrelatestosoftwareprogramminghascometobeworthmoreinthejobmarketthanamasteryofEnglishorChinese.Butnaturallanguageisn’tjustthegiftofthegab.It’salsoatalentnecessaryforcommunication,whichisdistinctfrommereconversation.Communicationcanbeverbalorwritten.Intheworkingworld,theabilitytocommunicatewellisknownasasoftskill.Softskillshavealwaysbeencriticaltoprofessionslikejournalism,advertisingormedicine.Nowthey’reprovingtobejustasimportanttohigh-techindustriesandbusinesses.Effectivecommunicationisn’ttheonlysoftskillemployerscrave.Inter-personalskills,liketheabilitytocreateandmaintainarapportwithothers,arehighonthelist,too.Timemanagement,initiative,workingwellunderpressure,andimageorappearance-especiallyasitbearsonnon-verbalcommunication-arealsoessential.Technologyhasmeanttheblurringoftraditionallinesbetweenworkersanddepartmentsatmanycompanies,particularlysmall,informationtechnologystart-ups.Businessesarelessdepartmentalized.E-mail,forexample,nowallowsallkindsofworkersandmanagerstocommunicatedirectlywithoneanother.Technicalsupportstaffwhoonceworkedinobscuritymanynowinteractdailywithsalesandmarketingstaff,andwithcustomersandclients.Obviously,employerswantprogrammersordeveloperswhoareatthetopoftheirtechnicalgame.Butincreasingly,theyalsowantemployeeswhocanarticulatetheirgoalsclearly,writeevocatively,workwellwithothersandbuildrelationships,takeinitiative,andrepresentacompany’simageofitself.Softskills-or,astheymighthavebeencalledinanotherera,peopleskills.Yetwhatdoes“effectivecommunication”mean?First,understandthatitcanheverbal,non-verbalorwritten.Communicationcanincludetelephonelinks,telecommunicationexchanges,E-mail,theInternetorwritingreports.Thus,communicationandconversationarenotthesameanimal.Butatthesametime,languageexpertssayconversationisoftenmorethan90percentnon-verbal.Wordsalonemakeuponlyatinyportionofthemessagespeoplesendoneanother.InhisDictionaryofCybernetics,KlausKrippendorff,oftheAnnenbergSchoolofCommunicationsattheUniversityofPennsylvania,writesthatnon-verbalcommunicationis:processesofcommunicationwithouttheuseoflanguageproper.”“Bodymovements,gesture,smellsbutalsosuchextra-linguisticfeaturesofspeechasintonation,speed,pause,”Krippendorffsaid.“Non-verbalcommunicationisexpressiveandmanifestasopposedtobeingaboutsomethingoutsidethecommunicator.Non-verbalcommunicationtendstoprovidethecontextofverbalcommunicationandhasthepowertodisambiguate(butalsotoinvalidate)thecontentoflinguisticexpressions.Sothewaywetalk-orespeechpatterns,ourexpressions,oureyemovements-arecriticaltoprovidingthecontextandclaritythatwordsalonecannot.Buthowdoestheaverageworkerlearntodothiswell?Unfortunately,mostofthelarge,popularcareerandjobsitesontheWorldWideWebaredevotedtofinding,applyingforandwinninganewjob.Mostdonottellworkerswhoalreadyhaveajobhowtoimprovetheirsoftskills.Smaller,andmoreobscure,subject-specificsitesexist,butyouhavetohuntforthem.LeadingEdgeCommunications,forexamplehasasitedevotedtopromotingpublicationsandseminarsoneffectivebusinesscommunication.Butisalsooffersanintriguingpageofwrittenexercisesdesignedtoteachpeopletocommunicatebetter.TheWritingCenteralsooffersbooksandseminarsonwritingbetteratwork,andSummerInstituteforLanguagesoffersatutorialonwhatconstituteswrittencommunication.Whatelsecanaworkerdo?First,seekoutamentoramongprojectleaders,managersorothermoreseniors,moreexperiencedcolleagues.Second,manybusinessesoffercommunications,assertivenessandteam-buildingtrainingcourses.Inaddition,somecareerandrecruitingexpertsadviseclientstotakepublicspeakingclasses,signupforwritingcoursesthroughuniversityextensionprograms,andeventryoutforcommunity-theater.Also,thoughmanypeoplewhoalreadyhavejobsthinkanemploymentagencyorcareercounselorhasnothingtoofferthem,suchconsultantsoftenadviseoncommunication,interpersonalandimagestrategies.Image?Appearancecanbeanimportantpartofsoftskills.Rememberthatmostcommunicationisnon-verbal.Thatcancertainlybetrueduringajobinterview.Aninterviewermaybecomeyournewbossorcolleague,and,aseveryoneknows,comestoanopinionaboutyoubasedinpartonappearance.Interviewerswanttohireapplicantswiththebestshotoffittingintothecompany’sculture-andmostworkplaceshaveadistinctculture.Appearance,fromthewayacandidatedressestohisbodylanguage,cantellanintervieweralotaboutanapplicant’sbackground,education,personalityandoutlook.Infactsoftskillsmaybeadecidingfactoratajobinterview,whichisoftenthevenueforanemployertotestacandidate’scommunicationorinter-personalskills.Canthiscandidateclearlyandeloquentlyexpresshisgoals,orhisideasofhowhewillcontributetothecompanyifhired?Whenaskedhowhewouldsolveatechnicalproblem,ishisanswerwell-expressedandeasytounderstand?Howmuchinputdidhehaveonprojectsatpreviousjobsandwhatkindofleadershiprolesdidhetake-meaning,didhetakeinitiative,workwellwithateam,andcommunicatefrequentlyduringtheoldassignment?Doesheestablisharapportwiththeinterviewerandothershemeetsduringthehiringprocess?Doesheseemabletobuildrelationships?Canheprovidesomewritingsamples?Recruitersandemploymentspecialistssaythatinthelastfewyears,ajobapplicant’sperformanceintheseareashasweighedmoreheavilyinthedecisionofwhotohire.Inasurveylastyear,RHIConsulting,ahigh-techrecruitingfirm,askedinformationtechnologymanagerswhattheylookedforinemployees.RHIsays85percentrespondedthattheywant“well-developedsoftskills,”and68percentbelievethosesoftskillsaremoreimportantnowthanfiveyearsago.Questions:(PleaseanswerthemonyourAnswerSheet.)1.Wheniscommunicationdifferentfromconversation?2.Whatdoes“effectivecommunication”mean?3.Whatcouldbeconsiderednon-verbalcommunication?4.Whatfunctionscouldnon-verbalcommunicationserve?5.Howcanyouimproveyoursoftskills?【答案】1.Communicationisdistinctfrommereconversation.Communicationcanbeverbal,non-verbalorwritten,includingtelephonelinks,E-mail,writingreports,etc.Onthecontrary,conversationisoftenmorethan90percentnon-verbal.Sofromthispointwecanseethatconversationconsistsonlyasmallpartofcommunication.2.Effectivecommunicationmeanstheperformancethatpeopleuseverbalandnon-verbaltoolstoprovidethecontextandclaritytothosewhotheyarecommunicatingwith.3.Non-verbalcommunicationisexpressiveandmanifestasopposedtobeingaboutsomethingoutsidethecommunicator,includingsmells,gesture,bodymovements,etc.4.Non-verbalcommunicationoffersthecontextofverbalcommunicationandispowerfultodisambiguatethecontentoflinguisticexpressions.5.There’remanywaystoimprovethesoftskills.Wecanseekoutamentoramongprojectleaders,managersorothermoreseniors,moreexperiencedcolleagues.Also,wecanseekhelpfromexpertcounselors.Besides,wecantakepublicspeakingclassesorsignupforwritingcourses.II.ReadthefollowingpassageandwriteasummaryinCHINESE.(25%)RememberthegreatAsianeconomiccrisis?Inlate1997and1998,itseemedtobetheperfectdoom-and-gloomstoryforfindesickleeschatologists:ThemonetarycrisisthathadfirsteruptedinThailandinJuly1997wasripplingthroughoutEastAsia,toRussia,toLatinAmerica,andthen-watchout!ItwasonlyamatteroftimebeforeitwouldbecomingtoAmerica.Anewword,“contagion,”creptthemysteriouswaythecrisiswouldspread.Lookingbackward,it’shardtoseewhatthefusswasabout.MosteconomistsforesawlittledamagetotheU.S.fromAsia’sproblems.Butthetimewasripeforpessimism.America’seconomicexpansionwasinrecord-breakingterritory(thisyearitbecamethelongestexpansioninU.S.history),andforecasterswerenervouslyscanningthehorizonforsignsofthenextrecession.Thestockmarket,alreadyatunheard-oflevels(Dow8000!),seemedlikenothingifnotabubbleabouttoburst.AllthebadnewsfromAsiahadtoaffecttheU.S.somehow,didn’tit?Awell-publicizedbandofpessimiststhoughtso.DavidJones,chiefeconomistatAubreyG.Lanston,cuthisestimatefor1998realGDPgrowthto1.6%inNovember1997(itturnedouttobe4.3%).TheAsiancontagion,hetoldtheWallStreetJournal,wouldproduce“shockwavesofpessimismemanatingeverythreeorfourweeksinthestockmarket.”Theprognosesgotdrearier,andbyOctober1998anolessaugustfigurethanformerFedChairmanPaulVolckerintonedataspeechinWashington,“Suddenly,itallseemsinjeopardy.Allthatrealgrowth-allthetrillionsinpaperwealthcreation-isatrisk.WhatstartedasablipontheradarscreeninThailand-aboutasfarawayfromWashingtonorNewYorkasyoucanget-hassomehowturnedintosomethingofafinancialcontagion.”Welltoday,lessthanayearandahalfafterthatspeechandjustover2andahalfyearssincethefirswhiffofcrisis,thefinalgra
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