食品飲料-食品飲料行業(yè)23年中報(bào)回顧：白酒經(jīng)營分化食品復(fù)蘇回暖可期-招商證券于佳琦,田地,陳書慧,任龍,劉成,胡思蓓-20230906

證證券研究報(bào)告|行業(yè)深度報(bào)告復(fù)蘇，餐飲低基數(shù)下增速較中報(bào)加速計(jì)提、政策提振情緒、資金面底部反轉(zhuǎn)，堅(jiān)定看多。一年維度我們對(duì)優(yōu)秀個(gè)股信心滿滿。對(duì)于短期參與行業(yè)貝塔型反轉(zhuǎn)，直接錨定三季報(bào)(老窖汾企業(yè)旺季走量壓力不大，消化庫存后安全邊際更高，這樣的品牌看一年際非常充分，四季度到明年有反轉(zhuǎn)預(yù)期的公司，布局絕對(duì)收益。標(biāo)的推薦(半年到一年維度)：白酒繼續(xù)推薦戰(zhàn)略性配置位置(山西汾酒、五糧液、貴州茅臺(tái)、古井貢酒)，彈性品種珍酒李渡、老白干酒。食品繼續(xù)推薦管理改善的中注洽洽食品、涪陵榨菜等。收入增長，高端酒和地產(chǎn)龍頭酒表現(xiàn)更加穩(wěn)健，二季度在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的壓力下仍保持高增長。分板塊來看，高端白酒經(jīng)營韌性十足，茅臺(tái)老窖產(chǎn)品結(jié)下業(yè)績高增。區(qū)域名酒VS21年收入利潤表現(xiàn)最優(yōu)(兩agr中樞20%左右，持平(-5%~5%)，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長水平對(duì)地產(chǎn)酒動(dòng)銷影響逐步抬升。從合酒高端消費(fèi)場(chǎng)景恢復(fù)，利好價(jià)格表現(xiàn)。家庭端乳制品、零食、鹵味等二季食二季度高增長，功能飲料、電解質(zhì)水、無糖茶等細(xì)分飲料品類也保持著行業(yè)規(guī)模行業(yè)規(guī)模股票家數(shù)(只)1372.6總市值(十億元)6214.47.5流通市值(十億元)5815.48.2行業(yè)指數(shù)行業(yè)指數(shù)6對(duì)表現(xiàn)0Sep/22Dec/22Apr/23Aug/23相關(guān)報(bào)告1、《食品飲料行業(yè)周報(bào)(09.03)—2、《全球烈酒對(duì)比研究系列報(bào)告—專題(三)—愈“飲”愈“烈”》3-09-013、《食品飲料行業(yè)周報(bào)(08.27)—于佳琦S1090518090005yujiaqi@田地S1090522080001tiandi@陳書慧S1090523010003chenshuhui@任龍S1090522090003longcmschinacomcn劉成S1090523070012hengcmschinacomcn胡思蓓研究助理beicmschinacomcn深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明2調(diào)整自身，比如海天對(duì)外持續(xù)降低經(jīng)銷商庫存，伊利、飛鶴面對(duì)小品牌甩洽洽部分區(qū)域也在6月份主動(dòng)放棄任務(wù)、消化在弱勢(shì)提實(shí)現(xiàn)業(yè)績觸底。牌甩貨去庫存，短期行業(yè)競(jìng)爭加劇，伊利飛鶴以控貨控價(jià)盤為第一要?jiǎng)?wù)。調(diào)味品：基調(diào)龍頭調(diào)整為主，復(fù)調(diào)B端增速較快。Q2整體需求承壓，基實(shí)際動(dòng)銷好于報(bào)表增長，中炬包袱較輕，保持穩(wěn)健增長，內(nèi)部董事會(huì)換屆B餐飲渠道低基C行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)提升，次高檔以上價(jià)位帶基本實(shí)現(xiàn)15%+增長，噸價(jià)增長在中個(gè)復(fù)下分別+15.5%/+20%。華潤次高檔以上產(chǎn)品銷量同比+26.4%，其中喜力銷量實(shí)現(xiàn)接近60%的亮眼增長。重慶啤酒雖然H一定壓力，但在嘉士伯、風(fēng)花雪月、樂堡、重慶休閑食品：零食量販維持高景氣，鹵味單店恢復(fù)低于預(yù)期。零食量販店憑省外跑馬圈地。上游零食品牌積極擁抱渠道變化，甘源、鹽津多品類、散稱模式更契合零食量販店，該渠道銷售額逐月提升，帶動(dòng)Q2增長超預(yù)期，從開店方向上看，今年兩家鹵味龍頭策略上都優(yōu)先選擇高勢(shì)能網(wǎng)點(diǎn)加密。渠道和餐飲渠道需求快速復(fù)蘇，流通餅房(小B)渠道增長略有壓力，山安井主業(yè)維持穩(wěn)健增長，Q2速凍魚糜/肉制品/面米制品增速分別同比為其中受益于需求恢復(fù)以及公司烘焙類主食類產(chǎn)品上新，百勝中國訂單收入敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明3投資建議：中報(bào)加速計(jì)提、政策提振情緒、資金面底部反轉(zhuǎn)，堅(jiān)定看多。錨定三季報(bào)(老窖汾酒古井等高增長公司)。一年維度，白酒預(yù)計(jì)仍將延布局絕對(duì)收益。標(biāo)的推薦(半年到一年維度)：白酒繼續(xù)推薦戰(zhàn)略性配置老白干酒。食品繼續(xù)推薦管理改善的中炬高新，困境反轉(zhuǎn)的價(jià)值股中國飛境擾動(dòng)，需求不及預(yù)期，成本上漲，競(jìng)爭加劇。敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明4正文目錄 目錄 表5：白酒板塊公司應(yīng)收票據(jù)(含銀行承兌)變動(dòng)情況(單位：百萬元)......10 表7：白酒板塊公司(收到現(xiàn)金/營業(yè)收入)分季度變化(%) 11 敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明5 深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明6QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ、白酒板塊：經(jīng)營有所分化，區(qū)域名酒業(yè)績亮眼Q速Q(mào)較高增長，全年任務(wù)完成確定性強(qiáng)。.0營業(yè)收入(億)歸母凈利潤(億)收入同比歸母凈利潤同比深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明7.0QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ現(xiàn)金回款(億)QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ表1：白酒板塊公司23Q3收入利潤及增速(單位：百萬元)23Q2收入Vs21Q2CAGR23Q2歸母凈利潤Vs21Q2CAGR331,60820.4%15,18621.0%14,3687.5%4,4957.7%6,98330.5%27.2%3,37827.2%552,95816.9%1515.9%23,05818.4%1717.7%6,32931.8%15.0%1,94849.6%19.6%6732.2%6.2%43508.9%/酒業(yè)1,5085.2%35014.8%577-32.0%-38.2%9,08721.9%9.7%2,46336.0%66,8271616.6%2,0969.9%8.0%4,72626.8%28.2%1,21047.5%46.4%世緣2,16730.6%22.0%79522.5%1,32134.0%31222.8%8.0%1,22728.6%13.5%36459.0%28.7%金種子酒33530.5%15.7%3/1,22910.0%18.5%29.5%力特481-5.6%-0.6%2839.8%18,31318,31321.3%1818.6%4,92326.2%1818.9%資料來源：Wind，招商證券深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明8%>次高端增速9.7%；次高端收入增速21.9%>區(qū)域名酒增速21.3%>高端白酒增速16.9%；次高端利潤增速36.0%>區(qū)域名酒增速26.2%>高端白酒增速18.4%；臺(tái)23Q2收入利潤再超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，盡顯公司經(jīng)營韌性，單季度收入利潤增速均超20%，半年度營收增速創(chuàng)5年新高。茅臺(tái)酒同比+21.1%，接近系列酒增速，帶動(dòng)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)優(yōu)化，直營占比環(huán)比下降與系列酒增速放緩有關(guān)。五糧液淡季主動(dòng)調(diào)整，在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的壓力下調(diào)整市場(chǎng)策略，主動(dòng)減少經(jīng)銷商款發(fā)貨壓力，Q2單季度增速放窖強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長，特曲、低度國窖提價(jià)推動(dòng)噸價(jià)提升，Q2營收、利潤分別同增30.5%/27.2%，業(yè)績彈性持續(xù)釋放。重慶、上海等潛力市場(chǎng)的開拓持續(xù)推進(jìn)，23H1察。/利潤cagr18.6%/18.9%)。不同省份經(jīng)濟(jì)活躍度和大眾消費(fèi)恢復(fù)程度不同，區(qū)域酒企分化明顯，徽酒增長中樞25-30%，營收和利潤增長亮眼，蘇酒增長中樞20%左右，河北、新疆、湖南等區(qū)域酒企呈現(xiàn)出不同程度的增速放緩，增速同比基本持平(-5%~5%)，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長水平對(duì)地產(chǎn)酒動(dòng)銷影響逐步抬升。分酒企看，古井業(yè)績超預(yù)期釋放，Q2收入同增26.8%，利潤同增47.5%，安徽市場(chǎng)需求恢復(fù)較100-300元價(jià)格帶的淡雅、單開帶動(dòng)特A類增速快于整體，V3受益于省內(nèi)600深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明922Q222Q322Q44%220.6%220.6%221.0%5.1%5.1%24.1%22.3%20.6%0.5%29.0%1.0%27.9%29.1%27.2%2.5%0.0%4%1.8%-4.3%7.0%29.9%49.6%%4%-39.7%.2%.9%-19.1%-56.0%酒業(yè)-16.3%0.9%%%32.1%-29.7%5.7%.9%%3%2.5%-27.1%-42.9%-32.0%-18.7%21.1%-55.7%4%38.2%.3%6.1%40.4%7%9%229.5%221.6%2424.7%224.8%226.8%45.345.3%2%42.942.9%47.547.5%世緣26.26.1%227.6%227.3%.6%227.3%227.5%25.2%25.2%29.29.1%-7.9%-7.9%7%-1.9%-1.9%221.3%4.0%-4.9%-4.9%.2%-39.6%-39.6%222.8%00.1%226.3%221.6%228.6%44.1%27.2%27.2%9.0%金種子酒2.6%2.6%-18.6%-18.6%-8.3%-8.3%225.5%0.5%-13.3%-13.3%%132.2%132.2%22228.1%--107.9%224.6%227.9%-4.8%-4.8%41.41.6%.6%224.6%-61.5%-61.5%力特4.7%4.7%-60.0%-60.0%-3-33.1%5.6%75.2%79.2%4%7.0%9.8%資料來源：Wind，招商證券公司主動(dòng)減輕渠道壓力，回款節(jié)奏放緩所致，23H1末合同負(fù)債同比-32.7%至成?？诒?：白酒板塊公司合同負(fù)債變化情況(單位：百萬元)-24.1%4.5%-17.0%-24.1%4.5%-17.0%7%7%5%7%7%3.5%0%1%7.9%8%36.2%22.0%-23.7%36.2%-1.3%.2%合同負(fù)債年?duì)I收7%4.9%7%21.9%23.2%633069208443217274548酒業(yè)世緣372545深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明10種子酒力特6801993.5%3%8%-35.5%8%-46.5%-15.3%-26.5%7%40.2%計(jì)381923556639368585973819033439-60%-124%9.8%資料來源：Wind，招商證券表4：白酒板塊公司(預(yù)收賬款/下一季度收入，部分季度為按比例估計(jì))35.1%28.2%28.2%8.3%1.7%1.9%1.3%9.3%4%48.8%228.5%47.4%47.4%4%9.8%8.5%4%29.2%29.2%.6%2.9%9.8%225.0%3.7%24.7%140.8%.0%0.8%71.1%4.5%5.9%40.3%72.1%7.8%127.4%0.5%108.2%120.4%148.2%酒業(yè)2.5%4.9%4.3%27.2%25.1%2.9%2%7.3%1.8%6%.6%61.1%44.9%3.6%2%191191.0%121121.3%166166.0%104.4%225225.6%1.3%102102.2%.5%2%.6%125.9%91.1%5.3%100.4%世緣43.7%2%.2%8.5%100100.2%.6%2.7%5.8%29.2%29.2%.6%8.3%27.0%228.0%3.7%7.0%2727.7%7.9%49.049.0%27.8%226.0%4.5%40.840.8%金種子酒1.9%228.8%4%27.5%39.1%25.2%25.2%225.5%0.8%115.0%139139.0%149149.6%186.1%119.3%165165.7%148148.7%179.7%力特25.8%224.5%49.7%222.0%資料來源：Wind，招商證券表5：白酒板塊公司應(yīng)收票據(jù)(含銀行承兌)變動(dòng)情況(單位：百萬元)////501722144202467114.2%-8.1%758215832972.6%-6.3%-6.3%41296-65.8%%68///.0%/酒業(yè)%-43.9%2.0%-61.0%-61.0%81.2%世緣8/-0.7%/2%%種子酒4346774.1%-83.9%186.0%186.0%4.8%力特36.2%-0.1%資料來源：Wind、招商證券2222Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比增長環(huán)比增長深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明1166944,6644637-18.6%25.7%4.2%-6.9%-49.7%-20.9%酒業(yè)計(jì)世緣金種子酒力特合計(jì)4,8964,3692190030453341897336545182919095.5%6.0%-40.3%9%.6%48.9%42.5%52.1%24.9%-21.6%22.1%-19.6%-7.3%-20.5%-21.7%-19.1%-46.0%-32.8%-32.0%20.0%-29.0%7.6%-32.7%-42.8%-34.9%資料來源：Wind，招商證券表7：白酒板塊公司(收到現(xiàn)金/營業(yè)收入)分季度變化(%)-6.7%-22.5%9.1%3.6%29.3%2.8%1.0%%酒業(yè)0%.5%12.2%1.0%.7-1.9%-5.9%%世緣44.7%金種子酒-45.1%力特-17.0%-11.9%-11.9%資料來源：Wind，招商證券2、經(jīng)營情況：渠道持續(xù)擴(kuò)張，盈利能力分化同比下降。次高端中，汾酒產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)穩(wěn)定，水井坊、舍得中低檔產(chǎn)品占比提升，毛利率分別同比-3%、-1.9%，酒鬼酒產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)保持穩(wěn)定。區(qū)域名酒結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)明顯，毛利率同比改善，洋河、古井受益于產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)，毛利率同比深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明12表8：白酒板塊公司23Q2毛利率變化(%)同比變動(dòng)(pct).6%992.1%.6%2.0%2.7%1.0%.9%.3%.7%.3%5.3%8.5%86.1%88.1%.6%.8%.9%69.1%6%.8%4.9%.6%3.8%2%.6%酒業(yè)0.8%.8%.7%.7%.9%.8%.8%1.7%.5%1.5%.8%.3%6.5%.0%75.1%6%75.1%.9%.0%.7%6%.7%.8%世緣.3%.2%6%6.5%.9%.0%72.1%72.1%.8%6%.5%.2%69.1%66.7%%6%種子酒.6%27.2%27.2%3.8%%6.6%.2%.0%8.6%力特1.0%40.4%40.4%41.0%8.3%1.5%42.1%資料來源：Wind，招商證券23Q2銷售費(fèi)用率同比+3.0pct，主要系公司把部分針對(duì)經(jīng)銷商的費(fèi)用(過去沖減收入)轉(zhuǎn)為掃碼紅包等直接投向消費(fèi)者(計(jì)入銷售費(fèi)用)。受益于消費(fèi)者培育效分市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入收獲期。表9：白酒板塊公司23Q2費(fèi)用率變化(%)23Q2銷售費(fèi)用率(%)同比變動(dòng)(pct)23Q2管理費(fèi)用率(含研發(fā))(%)同比變動(dòng)(pct)3%9%0%4.7%酒業(yè)世緣金種子酒41.1%29.7%24.3%.7%90%7%5.1%4.3%%%深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明134.9%4力特資料來源：Wind，招商證券五糧液毛利率與費(fèi)用率同降，凈利率保持穩(wěn)定。老窖受稅金影響(稅金同比+2.2pct)凈利率同比下降1.3pct。汾酒、古井享受部分市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入收獲期，費(fèi)用表10：白酒板塊公司23Q2凈利率變化(%)同比變動(dòng)(pct)47.8%48.1%48.5%2.8%48.0%1.3%.6%6.8%40.3%1.3%49.6%45.8%28.3%48.8%48.4%27.1%0.8%24.3%8.0%0.8%40.4%酒業(yè)26.7%22.9%3.7%28.2%23.2%23.2%26.8%31.1%21.1%28.8%8.3%0.7%22.0%23.8%25.6%世緣37.1%24.8%0.8%3.0%6.7%25.8%1.5%4%3.7%23.6%24.0%31.1%31.1%6.5%29.7%金種子酒-16.6%-37.8%-13.9%-9.5%.7%3%力特9%.5%8.1%20.1%8%資料來源：Wind，招商證券速更快達(dá)+6.2%/18.5%/+21.3%，實(shí)現(xiàn)高質(zhì)量增長。洋河省外經(jīng)銷商增長迅速，H深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明14 (單位：萬元/家)經(jīng)銷商數(shù)量(單位：家)H23H1同比增速液計(jì).9%3%計(jì)205%計(jì)8223-37.9%3舍得酒業(yè)計(jì)65-2.1%計(jì)-49.3%計(jì)%9%4.8%554.9%8%924計(jì)0933416.1%今世緣計(jì)7021.3%9%1550949.9%-6.3%暖可期整體需求弱復(fù)蘇，餐飲低基數(shù)下增速較快，細(xì)分品類/賽道仍有亮點(diǎn)。今年以來Q食量販行業(yè)繼續(xù)快速開店，帶動(dòng)甘源、鹽津等小零食二季度高增長，功能飲料、消費(fèi)群體持續(xù)滲透。高，其他原材料價(jià)材整體同比仍降幅明顯，同比降幅均雙位數(shù)以上，但環(huán)比價(jià)格略有上漲。3)運(yùn)有少數(shù)原材料如鴨副、葵花籽價(jià)格在持續(xù)上漲。深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明15務(wù)，洽洽部分區(qū)域也在6月份主動(dòng)放棄任務(wù)、環(huán)安慕希下滑有所拖累，其他板塊奶粉、冷飲對(duì)收入拉動(dòng)貢獻(xiàn)Q2有所下降。costco山姆等，成疊加費(fèi)用收縮，盈利能力顯著改善。H1啤酒行業(yè)規(guī)上企數(shù)左右。青島啤酒中高檔以上產(chǎn)品銷量同比+15%，經(jīng)典、純生等公司聚焦推廣的單品在場(chǎng)景恢復(fù)下分別+15.5%/+20%。華潤次高檔以上產(chǎn)品銷量同深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明16單品模式的洽洽也陸續(xù)與多個(gè)系統(tǒng)合作十幾款SKU。但由于去年瓜子受益味主業(yè)維持穩(wěn)健增長，Q2速凍魚糜/肉制品/面米制品增速分別同比為.2%.8.2%.8.3%0.3%.62%9.2%6.0%21.3%3%3%.4%9%23.9%20.9%-3.7%13.9%.0%9%0%1.3%%.25.06%6%.%3.6%21.3%.3%.7%6%-----2.7%----7--1.7%49.0%1.0%94.7%30.8%37.5%.7%21.0%0%0%24.7%%64.9%23.5%246.5%.3%.0%.0%.8%46.8%98.8%8.9%23.8%8%6.8%7.9%18.5%30.5%2.2%.7%2%24.8%453.6%.0%19.5%22.3%9.8伊利股份(美味鮮)仙樂健康酒桃李面包甘源食品知香佳禾食品品--------------------深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明17H山泉623.3%----28.0%25.3%----資料來源：wind，招商證券Q222Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2vs19Q2GRQ222Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2vs19Q2GR伊利股份(美味鮮)健康桃李面包食品佳禾食品品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資料來源：wind，招商證券2、經(jīng)營情況：成本壓力減弱，費(fèi)用投放出現(xiàn)分歧品板塊成本壓力普遍緩解，小品項(xiàng)上漲與結(jié)構(gòu)影響仍存。23H1由于大宗商Q，深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明18資料來源：wind、招商證券4.9%5.3%4.0%6.9%4.7%-0.1%利股份2.8%1.0%4.0%2.7%-0.1%42.2%40.1%44.4%43.5%42.7%5%26.8%21.9%23.9%4%23.6%-3.1%.2%62.1%7.0%5.5%6.3%5.1%7.7%47.3%6.3%48.8%-8.9%27.5%2.3%.6%28.5%20.6%-6.9%1.7%2%1.7%2.5%8%4.5%2.7%4.0%40.6%31.1%%5.0%.6%35.1%4.5%-0.5%39.1%40.7%38.1%8.7%40.5%2%3.9%2.0%35.1%6.5%健康4.3%29.6%27.7%0.9%%8.3%8.0%25.2%8.3%40.1%25.7%23.6%22.5%24.3%22.3%-3.3%面包24.7%21.7%24.2%23.9%23.1%1.6%29.5%26.2%27.8%24.2%26.7%-2.8%49.6%.6%.6%45.2%品29.1%37.1%4.9%6.3%4.9%8%香24.0%23.9%23.7%26.2%26.0%2.0%4%23.1%25.0%24.0%22.5%4%32.1%2.5%2.0%3.7%4.3%品8%20.0%23.8%24.7%-0.1%資料來源：wind，招商證券銷售費(fèi)用率改善明顯，伊利sQ2動(dòng)銷比預(yù)期慢，主動(dòng)控制了地面及品牌費(fèi)用投放，Q2銷售費(fèi)用率分別深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明19較大，費(fèi)用率被動(dòng)抬升影響盈利能力，恒順受收入下滑影響，銷售費(fèi)用率提升22Q222Q222Q322Q423Q123Q222Q222Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2利股份鵬飲料琪酵母潤股份陵榨菜洽食品炬高新味食品立食品辰股份順醋業(yè)樂健康島啤酒味食品李面包比食品慶啤酒品廚品品品4.7%5%5%%%4.0%8.1%7%%5%3.1%5%7%9%9%29.8%22.8%7%9.1%.8%.5%8.1%8%%4.3%2.7%.3%%4.9%22.9%4.2%9%8%21.1%.0%1.9%9%3%.8%28.2%.4%4.7%2.1%7.1%20.6%6%%.8%%4.3%5.1%4.9%9.4%8.5%8.4%8.2%7.4%8.3%7.4%8.1%5.1%4.3%4.7%3.1%4.9%9%-0.5%-0.1%0.6%%0%9%6.6%-1.9%%7%3%-2.3%5%%.2%9%3%-0.7%.4%2.7%7%0%6%7%7%2.6%4.3%5%%8%5%3%9%4.0%2.3%4.6%2.9%9%2.9%5.1%%.3%2.7%9%5%9%.5%%5%4.9%%8%3%2.3%5.1%0%2.1%7%4.9%.4%3%6%7%.8%0%%6%2.8%4.9%3%5%.2%4.2%3%4.5%9%2.5%4.5%0%.3%2.3%%3.1%4.3%4.6%%%2.5%2.8%2.0%8%2.8%5%4.9%%.3%%9%4.3%8%3.1%.8%2.0%%.4%5%8%%2.8%.2%-0.5%0.1%-2.7%-1.0%5%2.5%-1.8%0%-2.0%%-3.5%5%0%0%-1.9%-0.5%-1.1%-1.8%資料來源：wind，招商證券22Q222Q322Q423Q1利股份健康24.7%8.1%25.9%41.2%3%22.9%.3%%28.9%8.1%3%8%23.5%4.7%22.8%40.3%-73.0%3.6%0%18.2%24.6%20.0%24.7%4.2%23.1%%20.6%5%28.2%6.3%6%.7%%5%-1.7%2.6%-2.1%2.3%-4.9%-4.9%.5%8%4.8%-1.1%-5.3%敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明20%.8%9%%%0%面包7.7%9%21.9%5%1.0%0%5%.3%9%品-2.0%%.3%香20.1%.8%.0%.3%3%%7%6%.4%品%0%.0%%3%7%.7%6%9%.7%5%資料來源：wind，招商證券三、投資建議：中報(bào)加速計(jì)提、政策提振情緒、資金面底部反轉(zhuǎn)，堅(jiān)定看多觀，但由于整體外資配置本身偏低，前段大幅流出后，邊際負(fù)向效果較為有限。們判斷白酒資金或已觸底，邊際利好帶來反轉(zhuǎn)概率大幅提升。體不再悲觀。延續(xù)分化趨勢(shì)，品牌力強(qiáng)的企業(yè)旺季走量壓力不大，消化庫存后安全邊際更高，中標(biāo)的推薦(半年到一年維度)：白酒繼續(xù)推薦戰(zhàn)略性配置位置(山西汾酒、五糧深度報(bào)告敬請(qǐng)閱讀末頁的重要說明21穩(wěn)健的甘源食品，關(guān)注洽洽食品、涪陵榨菜等。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境擾動(dòng)，需求不及預(yù)期，成本上漲，競(jìng)爭加劇四、行業(yè)重點(diǎn)公司估值四、行業(yè)重點(diǎn)公司估值表代碼公司名稱投資評(píng)級(jí)市值股價(jià)EPSPE2223E24E25E2223E24E25E高端陽型600519貴州茅臺(tái)強(qiáng)烈推薦233491858.749.959.670.482.737312622000858五糧液強(qiáng)烈推薦6433165.76.97.78.69.924221917600809山西汾酒強(qiáng)烈推薦3151258.36.68.710.913.539302419000568瀘州老窖強(qiáng)烈推薦3505238.17.09.011.314.134262117002304洋河股份強(qiáng)烈推薦2103139.56.27.38.69.922191614000596古井貢酒強(qiáng)烈推薦1335289.76.08.610.913.649342621600702舍得酒業(yè)強(qiáng)烈推薦6186.HK中國飛鶴增持493148.15.15.87.39.1292620204024.80.50.40.40.48121211603198迎駕貢酒強(qiáng)烈推薦61877.32.12.73.33.836292420603589口子窖強(qiáng)烈推薦35759.52.62.93.54.023211715603369今世緣強(qiáng)烈推薦80564.22.02.53.24.032252016000799酒鬼酒強(qiáng)烈推薦31596.93.22.42.83.530413428600779水井坊增持34570.62.52.62.93.3282824226005596979.HK老白干酒珍酒李渡強(qiáng)烈推薦強(qiáng)烈推薦2283180.93231352026大眾陽型603288海天味業(yè)強(qiáng)烈推薦9633.HK農(nóng)夫山泉增持222440.03036312