羅蘭貝格-化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告

Noordwijk,October4,Prof.RolandBergerChairman,RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsEUenlargement–newopportunitiesforthechemicalindustry羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第1頁ThechangingfaceofEuropeChallengesandopportunitiesofenlargementforEU15OpportunitiesforEU15chemicalplayersinCEEandCISConclusionContents羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第2頁A.ThechangingfaceofEurope羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第3頁%ofEU25France,Germany,ItalyandBenelux:Sixwealthycorecountriesstarteconomicintegrationprocessin19571.1EU6(1957)**data>Europe'scorecountrieshadsluggishgrowthoverthelasttenyears:Averagegrowth1.3%p.a.inGermany,1.7%inFrance,2.5%NetherlandsGDP/capita[USD]28,608118.0%75.5%%ofUSPopulation[m]22750.0%78.0%GDP[USDbn]6,49458.9%59.0%羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第4頁Denmark,IrelandandtheUnitedKingdom:Firstacces-sionroundafter16yearsincreaseseconomicpower1.2EU9(1973)**data>AsaresultofEUintegration,Ireland'seconomicgrowthhasbeenout-standinglyhighoverthepasttenyears:7.6%p.a.(DK2.1%,UK2.8%)Population[m]29765.0%102.0%GDP/capita[USD]29,141120.2%76.9%GDP[USDbn]8,65578.5%78.8%%ofEU25%ofUS羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第5頁Greece:ApoorercountryjoinstheEuropeanUnionin1981–firstdiscussionsaboutdilution1.3EU10(1981)**data>Greecenowhashighaveragegrowthrates(3.8%p.a.from1995-)–partlyduetoEuropeanmoneyfromstructural/regionalfundsGDP[USDbn]8,82780.0%80.3%Population[m]30867.7%106.2%GDP/capita[USD]28,659118.3%75.6%%ofEU25%ofUS羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第6頁SpainandPortugal:Accessionoftwolessdeveloped

southerncountriesreducesEU'saveragewealth1.4EU12(1986)**data>Today,thesoutherncountriescontributetoEUgrowth:Spain(3.3%p.a.since1995)andPortugal(2.4%p.a.)achievedhighaveragegrowthratesGDP[USDbn]9,81689.0%89.3%Population[m]35978.9%123.0%112.8%72.2%GDP/capita[USD]27,343%ofEU25%ofUS羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第7頁Sweden,FinlandandAustria:Europe'snorthernenlargementpushesuptheaverageGDPpercapita1.5EU15(1995)**data>StimulustoEUgrowthoverthepasttenyears:Finland'seconomygrew3.5%p.a.onaverage,Sweden's2.7%p.a.,andAustria's2.0%p.a.GDP[USDbn]10,53495.5%95.9%Population[m]38183.7%130.5%GDP/capita[USD]27,648114.1%73.0%%ofEU25%ofUS羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第8頁GDP[USDbn]11,028100.4%Population[m]455156.0%EasternEurope,MaltaandCyprus:ThebiggestroundofenlargementeverchangesthefaceofEurope1.2EU25()**data>GDPgrowthratesofupto6.5%p.a.inCEE(average4.4%p.a.since'95)> But:EnlargementisabigchallengeforEuropeanUniontocreatewealthGDP/capita[USD]24,23764.0%%ofUS羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第9頁50yearsofenlargement:ComparedtotheUS,theEUhasgainedsizeattheexpenseofaveragewealth>Today,Europe'sGDPpercapitaisonlyabouttwo-thirdsthatoftheUS–intermsoftotalGDP,botheconomiesarenowcomparableEUvs.US*[US=100%]59.077.580.389.395.9100.478.0102.0106.2123.8130.5156.075.576.975.672.273.064.01957EU61973EU91981EU101986EU121995EU15EU25GDPInhabitantsGDPpercapitaUS=100*basedondata1.3羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第10頁Wealthgap:Tenyearsago,thenorthoftheEuropeanUnionwasrichandthesouthwaspoor2.1>SouthgainedwealthinEU:From34.4%ofEU-9(1986)to59.8%today1995:Gapbetweennorthandsouth*1995*data**EU12***Portugal,Spain,GreeceGDP

[USDbn]Unemployment

[%]Population

[m]SOUTH***NORTH**1,1619,37313.49.262319RATIO9:1GDPpercapita

[USD]18,72629,3833:22:35:1羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第11頁7,42927,6204:1Today,thegapisbetweeneastandwest–GDPpercapitaintheEU15isfourtimeshigherthaninEU102.2:Gapbetweeneastandwest>EUsupportwillhelpEU10economicdevelopmenttoreachEU15wealthEU10EU1549310,53410.58.574381RATIO21:14:55:1GDP

[USDbn]Unemployment

[%]Population

[m]GDPpercapita

[USD]羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第12頁EU25vs.USvs.Asia:EnlargedEUisastillpowerful,buttheslowestgrowingeconomicregionintheworld3.>Opportunity:TennewstatesgivetheEUmomentumtoincreasegrowthECONOMICPOWER[GDP,USDbn]ComparativeindicatorsPOPULATION[m]WEALTH[GDPpercapita,USD]GROWTH

[avg.GDPgrowth1999-,%]10,9882903.311,0284552.3USEU25ASIA**AggregateddataforJapan,China,ASEAN8,4581,9474.837,89024,23712,058羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第13頁B.Challengesandopportunitiesofenlargementfor

EU15羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第14頁Eastwardenlargemententailsthreatsandopportunitiesforeconomies,companies,andgovernmentsEconomiesUnitlaborcostadvantagesinEU10challengeexistingvaluecreationstructuresinEU15,butalsooffer

momentumforstructuralchange/innovationinEU15CompaniesCompetitioninEU15aswellasinEU10isincreasing,

butalsonewsales,investment,growthandrelocationopportunitiesforEU15companiesinEasternEuropeGovernmentsExistinginstitutionalsetupsinEU15arechallengedbylowertaxes/contributionsandhigherflexibilityinEU10,butalsomomentumforpoliticalchange>Effectsofenlargementonmacroeconomicandmicroeconomiclevels羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第15頁Macroeconomicthreats:PressureonEU15labormarketsandcompetitionforbestinstitutionalsetupLowwage-competition/unemploymentthreatsMigration(upto3.8mpeoplefromCEEwillmovetotheEU15)Offshoring(e.g.830,000peopleinCEEemployedbyGermanfirmsin)Lowtax/socialcontributionscompetitionAlso:Lessregulation(e.g.IMDbureaucracyindex:Estoniaranked9th,UKranked33rd)Financialburden(EUbudget)Costofenlargement(-):

49bnEUR>Differences:Countrieswithhighdegreeofregulation,geographical proximitytoCEEandnetcontributorstoEUbudgetaremoreaffected1.139,019,015,00,017,415,08,512,5GERPOLLITESTTaxesContributionsCORPORATETAXES[%]/SOCIALCONTRIBUTIONS[%ofGDP]羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第16頁Macroeconomicopportunities:Highergrowthmomen-tumforstructural/institutionalchangeandinnovationEnhancedgrowthineastandwestEU15benefitsfrombacklogofdemand

inCEENewmomentumin'NewEurope'throughincreasedtrade/know-howMomentumforstructuralchange/innovationLabor-intensive/lowvaluecreationindustries/products

nolonger

competitiveinEU15Structuralchangetowardshigh-techgoodsandservicestheonlychoicefor'OldEurope'

(->growth/wealth)MomentumforinstitutionalchangeRegulations,taxes,subsidies,flexiblemarkets>EUenlargementhelpspolicymakersbringaboutnecessarybutoften unpopularstructuralreformsintheirrespectivecountries1.2CEE8+1.3-2.1

p.a.-09EU15+0.5-0.7cum.-09Source:EUCommissionIMPACTOFENLARGEMENTONGDPGROWTH[%]羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第17頁Microeconomicthreats:IncreasingcompetitionforEU15duetolowerlabor/unitcostsinEasternEurope>Differences:Matureindustriesmoreaffectedthaninnovativeones, borderregionsmorethanwestern,smallcompaniesmorethanlarge2.12.821.190.56-0.15-1.03-2.26Chemi-

calsMedical

techno-

logyITequip-

mentAuto-

motiveSteel

industryWoodIndustrieswith

comparative

ADVANTAGEinGERIndustrieswithcomparativeDISADVANTAGEinGERMoreattractivebusinessconditionsinCEELaborcostsonlybetween10.4%(Slova-kia)and17.8%(Hungary)ofEU15levelTaxeslowerandsocialcontributionsonlybetween10.0%(Poland)and16.3%(CzechRepublic)ofGermanlevelCapitalcostsabout20%lower–becauseoflowerinvestmentneedsduetoflexiblelabormarketsNeedforIndustryrestructuringInnovation(creativedestruction)REVEALEDCOMPARATIVEADVANTAGE–GERMANYVS.EASTERNEUROPE[Index]羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第18頁Microeconomicopportunities:CEEoffersnewmarketsandgrowth/investment/offshoringopportunities>LaborcostsinCEEwillremainattractiveforatleast30moreyears2.2203039.466.3POL42.467.9EST61.478.5CZR71.584.1SLO100EU15Newmarketsforinfrastructure,capitalandconsumergoods75mnewconsumerswithincreasing

purchasingpowerforconsumergoodsHighdemandformodernizedinfrastructure

andcapitalgoodsNewgrowthandinvestmentopportunitiesPrivatizationofstate-ownedcompaniesAcquisition/restructuringofEU10enterprisesLowunitcoststhroughoffshoringSetupofownproductionfacilitiesOutsourcingoflabor-intensiveproductionLowertaxesandsocialcontributionsCONVERGENCEINPERCAPITAINCOME[index,EU15=100]羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第19頁Resultofenlargement:NewEuropeandivisionoflaborbasedonregionalcomparativeadvantagesRELATIVEABUNDANCE

OFCAPITALANDTECHNOLOGYWESTERNEUROPE:Capital/knowledge-intensiveeconomiesEASTERNEUROPE:Labor-intensiveeconomiesRELATIVEABUNDANCE

OFLABORAT

LOWCOSTS3.>Freeexchangeofgoodsandservices,financialandhumancapitalwill allowEUtocompeteheadtoheadwiththeUnitedStatesandAsia96.2109.8117.297.7121.1132.6134.774.81999=ImportsfromCEE=ExportstoCEEBRAINBRAINTRADERELATIONSBETWEENEU15ANDCEE[EURbn]羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第20頁MajorindustrialsectorsarealreadyreapingthebenefitsofthenewEuropeandivisionoflaborthroughFDIs4.LeadingsectorsintermsofFDI

inEasternEurope=%ofallextra-EU15flows1997199819996.09.812.119.916.35.54.53.94.912.416.16.3>Alsochemicalfirmshavemovedeastwardsinsearchofnewmarkets...

AUTOMOTIVE

FINANCIAL

SERVICESFOODTELECOMS26.9%ofallGermanFDIflowsgotoCEEEU15FDIINCEE1997-[EURbn]羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第21頁C.OpportunitiesforEU15chemicalplayers

inCEEandCIS羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第22頁ChemicalindustryinCEE/CIS:Stillsmallinsizebutgrowingat2.5timesthespeedofWesternEuropeChemicaloutputgrowth-[?%p.a.]> Chemicalrevenuesof34.3bnUSDinEasternEurope(CEE23.5bnUSD,

CIS10.8bnUSD)arecomparableinsizetoIrelandortheNetherlands8.57.55.34.94.22.21.91.2INDCHNCEECISMiddleEastEU15JPNNAFTA2.35.31.60.83.633.011.027.8Globalshare[%]1.羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第23頁12345CEEvs.CIS:Basicstructuraldifferencesinchemicals–despiteofsimilarlygoodgrowthperspectives2.> Verydifferent(marketentry)strategiesnecessaryforCEEandCIS!!!1) Poland,CzechRepublic,Romania, Hungary,Slovakia,Bulgaria2) Russia,Ukraine,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan,Georgia,MoldovaCEE1)CIS2)PLAYERS/ACTIVITIESLocal/regionalplayersproducingvalue-addedchemicalsBigprivateoil/gascompaniesproducing

mainlypetrochemicalsandcommoditiesCOMPETI-

TIVENESSDomesticallybutnotyetgloballycom-petitiveproduction/assetfootprintUncompetitiveproduction/logistics,

butcompetitiverawmaterials/feedstockTRADEHighimportsofhigh-/medium-valuechemicals,lowlevelofexportsHighpetrochemicalexports,highconsumerchemicalsimportsDEGREEOFPRIVATIZATIONState-owned/-controlledcompaniesstilldominantPrivatizationofRussianplayerslargelycompleted(Renationalization?)ACTIVITIES

OFWESTERN

COMPANIESGreenfieldinvestmentsandJVsinconsumer-drivensegmentsDemand-drivenGreenfieldandsupply-drivenBrownfieldinvestments/JVs羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第24頁Players/activities:Localplayersproducingvalue-addedchemicalsinCEE–CISstronginrawmaterials2.1> Local/regionalplayersinCEEandstrongresource-drivenplayersinCISCEECISPLAYERS:Weak,bigstate-owned/

-controlledplayersandsomestrongprivatelocal/regionalchemicalproducersLargestplayersonvariousvalue-chainlevels:CIECH,ZakladyAzotowe,Unipetrol,Duslo,NovackeChemickeZavody,etc.ACTIVITIES:Value-addedchemicalproductionsitesinallpartsofCEEEthylene:CZ,HU,PL,RO,BG,SLPolyethylene:HU,PL,CZ,HUAmmoniumnitrate:PL,SK,BG,ROPLAYERS:Strongoil/gascompaniesand

weakSMEsLargeoil/gascompanies:Yukos,Lukoil,SurgutneftegasSomeagrochemicalcompanies:Azot,

Akron,PhosAgro,Eurockim,UralkaliiACTIVITIES:Productionoflow-costcommodities(gas,rawmaterialandenergy-basedchemicals)DispersedanddislocatedproductioncentersremainfromSovieteraProductioninCISdropped60%inearly1990s–todaymoreorlessat1990levelagainUnfavorablelogisticsforworldmarkets羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第25頁Competitiveness:CEEassetscompetitivedomestically–CISassetsnot,butcompetitiverawmaterials2.2ASSETS:Productionsitesarecompetitive(technology,scale)–butonlyondomesticmarketsExample(AmmoniumnitrateproductioninPulawy,Poland):Capacity 700ktMinimumdomesticsize 550ktMinimumglobalsize

1,000ktLABORPRODUCTIVITY:Uncompetitivevs.EU15industry–turnoverperemployeeat30%ofEU15levelinSignificantincreases:Upfrom19%in1995ASSETS:Uncompetitiveproductionsites,butcompetitiverawmaterialsExample:Methanolandderivatives(NaturalgasatMiddleEasterncosts

of60-75cents/MBTU)Fully

fledgedcombinatesanddislocationofprocesschainsUncompetitivelogisticscostsLABORPRODUCTIVITY:Uncompetitivevs.EU15industry–turnoverperemployeeonlyat3%ofEU15levelinStagnatingorevendecreasing:In1995CISproductivitylevelwas4%ofEU15> CEEslowlycatchesupwithEU15efficiency–unsolvedproblemsinCISCEECIS羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第26頁Trade:HighlevelofimportsinbothCEEandCIS–CISwithsignificantexportsofmainlycommodities2.3HIGHIMPORTS:16.6bnUSDSpecialty/finechemicalspolymersConsumerchemicalsLOWEXPORTS:5.0bnUSDPolymers

PetrochemicalsDOMESTICPRODUCTIONcovers53%

ofdomesticdemandof35.1bnUSDHIGHIMPORTS:8.1bnUSDConsumerchemicalsHIGHEXPORTS:7.0bnUSDAgrochemicals/fertilizersRawmaterial-basedchemicalsGas-basedchemicalsDOMESTICPRODUCTIONcovers32%

ofdomesticdemandof11.9bnUSD> Increasinghigh-valueaddedimportsinCEE/CISinthecomingyears– likelytobefollowedbyimportsubstitutioninternationalinvestmentsCEE*CIS**)/data羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第27頁Degreeofprivatization:MostplayersinCISareinprivatehandstoday–CEEstilllargelystate-owned2.4EXTENTOFPRIVATIZATION:OnlyinHungary/Slovakiaprivatizationhasbeencompleted,inPoland/CzechRepublicthestatestillholdsmajorsharesRECENTDEVELOPMENTSPoland:CIECHgrouppartiallyprivatizedinSeptember(IPO)CzechRepublic:Unipetrolsold63%toPKN–butsignificantrestructuringandfurtherownershipchangesareexpectedOUTLOOK:PrivatizedCEEplayerswillenhancetheirimpactviaM&AsinCEEEXTENTOFPRIVATIZATION:InRussia,morethan96%ofthetop400chemicalfirmsareprivatized,inrestofCISongoingprocessRECENTDEVELOPMENTSRussia:JointventureswithWestern

companies,e.g.GazpromwithSiburandNizhnekamskneftekhimwithBASFOngoingactivitiesalsoinrestofCIS:IntheUkraineaprivatizationprogramoflargeenterpriseshasjustbeenapprovedOUTLOOK:Technology-andknow-how-basedinputofWesterncompanieswillincrease> Privatization/restructuringisstillanissueinPolandandtheCzech Republic–companiesinCISaremoreopenforpartnership/know-howCEECIS羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第28頁LikelyfuturedevelopmentsinCEE:Significantchangesinindustrystructure–opportunitiesforEUfirms3.1SignificantindustrystructurechangesareexpectedOnlyfewcompetitivecompaniesremain,many(evenprivatized,butuncompetitive)companiesarelikelytofailUnclearroleofstate-ownedcompanies–big,stillstate-ownedcompaniesarelikelytostay(evenifprivatizationfails)

Privatizedcompaniesthatareactiveinrestructuring/M&AswillfollowtheirpathmainlywithoutWesternpartnersCEEchemicalcompaniescanbecomeseriouscompetitorsontheEUstageCapturemarketpotentialandgrowththroughexportandFDIEntermarketwithbrandandmarketingpowerParticipateinmarketdevelopmentsthroughGreenfieldinvestmentsUsetimewindowoflowfactorcoststooptimizeEU25globalfootprintCapturetheadvantageofhomogeneousEU-25policyandmarket> EUfirmsmustintegratethenewCEEcountriesintheirEU-25strategiesKEYDEVELOPMENTSINCEEOPPORTUNITIESFORWESTERNCOMPANIES羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告第29頁LikelyfuturedevelopmentsinCIS:Largeplayerswinagainstsmallones–alsoopportunitiesforEUfirms3.2Biggas-oil-drivenandWesterncom-panieswillgainmomentumagainstSMEsManySMEsarelikelytodisappear

(weakfinancialresources,limitedmarketingpower,lackofR&D,uncompetitivepriceposition,etc.)Gas-/oil-basedandselectedrawmaterial-basedcompanieswillexpandtheirchemicalsportfoliodownstreamOftenincooperationwithinternationalpartnersOpenforFDIsParticipateinrawmaterial/supplyadvantagebytradingintechnologyandprocessknow-howandcapitalCooperatewithbigoil/gasandrawmaterialfirmsCaptureconsumption-drivenmarketpotentialthroughGreenfieldinvestmentsorjointventurewithrawmaterial/basicchemicalsmanufacturersInthemeantime:Buildupconsumer-drivensegmentswithexportandmarketingactivities

inCIS> EUfirmscancapturesupply/energyadvantagesandmarketpotentialKEYDEVELOPMENTSINCEEOPPORTUNITIESFORWESTERNCOMPANIES羅