韓國央行（BOK）：韓國新冠疫情大流行后家庭儲蓄過剩分析 2023

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No.2023-24

BANKOFKOREA

BOKIssueNote

July24,2023

Post-PandemicHouseholdExcessSavingsAnalysis

ParkSungHa

EconomicActivities

AnalysisTeam,

Research

Department

Tel.02-759-4441

juyeoncho@bok.or.kr

LeeEunSong

EconomicActivitiesAnalysisTeam,

Research

Department

Tel.02-759-4190les4409@bok.or.kr

KimHyungJi

EconomicActivitiesAnalysisTeam,

Research

Department

Tel.02-759-4233nondon@bok.or.kr

LeeHyunJi

EconomicActivitiesAnalysisTeam,

Research

Department

Tel.02-759-4219lhj@bok.or.kr

OhTaeHee

EconomicActivitiesAnalysisTeam,

Research

Department

Tel.02-759-4265thoh@bok.or.kr

EconomicActivitiesAnalysisTeam,

Research

Department

Tel.02-759-4204

everfree@bok.or.kr

ChoJuYeon

?1Interestrateshavegoneupsharplyinmajoreconomiessincelastyear,andyetthetollonconsumptionandhousingpriceshasbeenlessdamagingcomparedwiththepastcrisisepisodes,owinglargelytotheaccumulationofalargestockofhouseholdsavings.WeexaminehowmuchsavingsKoreanhouseholdshaveinexcessandtheramificationsoftheirholdingsontheeconomyandfinancialenvironment.

?2Excesshouseholdsavingshavebeenbuildingupsincepandemictoamounttoanestimated4.7%to6.0%ofthenominalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)and9.7%to12.4%ofprivateconsumption.Thebuildupowedtoconstrainedspendingatthestartandpeakofpandemicandtoincreasedincomelastyear.Decompositionofdeterminantspointedlargelytoforcedsavingsduringpandemicfromgovernment-imposedrestrictionsonmobilityandconsequentialconsumptionconstraints.

?3Allocationofhouseholdsavingssuggests①notmuchofthemwereusedonconsumptionasoverallhouseholdincomeconditionshadbeenmodestuntillastyearand②theywereheldmostlyinliquidassetslikedepositsandstocksratherthangoingtopaydowndebt.Householdholdingsinfinancialassetsledbycashdeposits,stocks,andfundssurged1,006trillionwonduringpandemicperiodof2020to2022,sharplygreaterthantheadditionof591trillionwonfrom2017to2018beforethepandemic.Thenetstockoffinancialassets(financialassetsminusdebt)hasalsoballoonedtosuggestacquisitionoffinancialassetssurgedduringpandemic.

?4Thestockpileofliquidfinancialassetsathouseholdscanhaveseveralimplicationsforpost-pandemiceconomicrecovery.①Theycanactasabuffertoconsumptionshocksand②havethepotentialtoflowintotheassetmarketwithexpectationchanges.

Sincethispapermostlyusedmacroeconomicdatafortheanalysis,microstudyisneededtoexamineheterogeneoushouseholdbehaviors.

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■Disclaimer:Theviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthors,anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialviewsoftheBankofKorea.Whenreportingorcitingthispaper,theauthors’namesshouldalwaysbeexplicitlystated.

■WearegratefultoChoiChangHo,directorgeneraloftheResearchDepartment,LeeHongJik,headofMacroeconomicOutlookDivision,LeeEunSeok,EconomicActivitiesAnalysisTeam,ParkChoongWon,deputyheadofPolicyAnalysisTeam,andWonYoungJin,directorofFlow-of-fundsTeam.

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Ⅰ.Introduction

Despitesteepspikeininterestratessincelastyear,consumptionhasbeenrelativelyresilientandcorrectioninhousingpriceslessdamagingthanpastcrisisepisodesinmajoreconomies.Improvementinhouseholdbalancesheetsthroughbolsteredsavingshasbeenpartlycreditedfortheextraordinaryfeature.1)WestudysavingsbuildupatKoreanhouseholds(includingnon-profitorganizations)toprojecttheramificationsontheeconomyandfinancialmarket.Householdsavingsdependontheflowsinincomeandspendingaswellasthebalancesheetonassetsandliabilities.Wescrutinizethesavingsflowundermulti-dimensionaldynamicsandtheirimpact.(<Figure1>).

<Figure1>HouseholdFinanceFlowand

AssetStockFlow1)

Note:1)Thebluesectionreferstohouseholdfinanceflowandtheredrefersto

stock(outstandingamounts).

Source:Authors’calculations.

Ⅱ.EstimateonExcessHouseholdSavingsandDeterminantsbehindtheAccumulation

1.EstimateonExcessSavings

Accumulationofhouseholdsavingsbeyondpre-pandemiclevelisestimatedat101to129trillionwon.Personalsavingratethataveragedat7.1%from2015to2019beforethepandemicsoaredto10.7%from2022to2022(<Figure2>).BasedontheU.S.FederalReserveBoardandumbrellafederalbankcalculations2),Koreanexcesssavingsareestimatedat101①~129②trillionwon,whichamountsto4.7~6.0%ofnominalGDPof2022and9.7~12.4%ofprivateconsumptionoftheyear(<Figure3>).

<Figure2>KoreanHouseholdNetSavingRate

Source:BOKNationalAccounts.

1)AccordingtoGoldmanSachs(2023.May),housesalesandpricesinmajoreconomieshavebeenrecoveringatasurprisinglyfastpace,owingpartlytothestronghouseholdbalancesheetsorexcesssavingsfollowingthepandemic.

2)FederalReserveBankofSanFranciscoinitsMay2023EconomicLettercalculatedexcessastheaccumulateddifferenceinactualde-annualizedpersonalsavingsandthetrendimpliedbydataforthe48monthsleadinguptothefirstmonthofthe2020.Thispaperbasedthemethodologydefinesexcesssavingsasthesavingsabovethepre-pandemictrend.Theamountcoulddifferdependingontheperiodobservedforthehistoricanddatasetvariant(suchasthesavingsamountorsavingrate).

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<Figure3>KoreanExcessSavings

Estimate

①BasedonSavingsonNational

accounts1)

Note:1)BasedonendDec.2022.

Source:BOKNationalAccounts,Authors’

calculations.

②BasedonIncomeSurplusRatein2019HouseholdFinanceSurvey1)2)

Notes:1)BasedonMarch-end2023.

2)Excesssavingsperhouseholdxfamilyunit.

Sources:SurveyofHouseholdFinancesandLivingConditions(SFLC),StatisticsKorea,Authors’calculations.

UnliketheU.S.wheredrawdownsinthepandemic-accumulatedsavingsarerapidlytakingplace,Korea’scontinuestopileup.ExcesssavingsaredepletingfastintheU.S.withsomeofthereservegoingtopent-upconsumption,whereassavingsinKoreaandeurozonecontinuetohoverabovethepre-pandemictrend(<Figure4>).

<Figure4>EstimateonExcessSavingsinMajorEconomies1)2)

<Korea3)>

<US>

<Eurozone4)>

Notes:1)Authors’calculationsbasedonFRBSFmethodology.

2)Thedottedlinedepictspre-pandemictrendinsavings(annualratefrom2010to2019forKoreaandquarterlyratefrom2015to2019forUSandeurozone).

3)Korea’sNationalAccountsprovidehouseholdsavingsstatisticsinannualamount.

4)Seasonallyadjustedonitsterms.

Sources:BOKNationalAccounts,Authors’

calculations.

Whilesavingsincreasedacrosstheincomegroup,thegainwassteepestforthehigh-incomecohort.

Factorsliketighteninginthelabormarketafterthepandemicandhighexpectedinflation3)bolsteredregularsalariesofpermanentworkersmorethanthoseofirregularhires.Specialbonusespaidoutbylargecompaniesparticularlyinfinanceand

ITsectorastheresultofpandemicboonalsoincreasedwealthforthehigher-income

group.

Althoughinlesserextent,thestockofexcesssavingsforthelower-incomegrouphadalsobeensubstantial.(<Figure5>and<Figure6>).

<Figure5>ExcessSavingsbyIncomeGroup1)2)

Notes:1)Excesssavingsrefertothesavingsinexcessofthelevelofthesameperiodof2019.

2)Lowestandsecondquintilegroupedaslow-income,thirdquintileasmiddle-income,andfourthandtop

quintileashigh-income.

Source:SFLCStatisticsKorea.

<Figure6>IncomeGrowthRateby

IncomeGroup

Source:SFLCStatisticsKorea.

2.DeterminantsontheIncreasein

SavingsStock

AsimplebreakdownofdeterminantsofsavingsaccumulationinKoreainincomeandconsumptioncontextshowedrestrainedspendingbuiltupsavingsattheonsetofpandemicoutbreakandbolsteredincomeinlastyear’sbalancesheet.(<Figure7>).

From2020to2021,consumptionconstraintfromrigidsocialdistancingincontact-basedservicesbuttressedhouseholdsavings.In2022,improvementinemploymentandwagesamidpost-pandemicrecoveryandgovernmentreliefbenefitsstrengthenedhouseholdbalances.Thecontributiontohouseholdbalancefromincreasedincomehasbeeneasingfromthelatterhalfoflastyear.(<Figure8>).

IntheU.S.,boththeincreaseinhouseholdincomeanddecreaseinconsumerspendingresultedinanextraordinaryrun-upinsavings.Buthouseholdshavebeenrapidlydecumulatingtheirexcesssavingsastheirspendingrevives.(<Figure9>).

3)AccordingtoOhregularworkersat

S.etal.(2022),theexpectedinflationratehasbusinesssitesoflargescalethansmallerones.

greater

impactonthesalariesof

。

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<Figure7>TrendinHouseholdIncome

andSpending

Note:Thedottedlinereferstoatrendfrom2015to2019.

Source:BOKNationalAccounts,Authors’

calculations.

excessstockstemmedfromforcedsavingsenvironmentduetopandemic-relatedconstraints.BasedonthemodelofassessingprecautionarysavingsofModyetal.(2012)andothers,wediscoverforcedsavingsdeterminantscontributingsubstantiallytotheincreaseinsavingrateinKoreanhouseholdssincepandemic.Theirprecautionarysavingshavebeenscalingbackamidimprovementinemploymentconditions(<Table1>and<Figure10>).

<Table1>SavingRateDecomposition

<Figure8>IncreaseandDecreaseRateinHouseholdIncome

Source:SFLCStatisticsKorea.

<Figure9>DissectionofExcessSavingsinKoreaandUS

Source:BOKNationalAccounts,USBureauofEconomicAnalysis.

Category

Variables

Precautionary

Factors

-UnemploymentRate

-Incomeuncertainty(GDPratevolatility)

OtherFactors

-Thegapratein

householdnet

disposableincomeversustrend

-Realdepositrate,housingprices

Forcedsavings

-Residual

<Figure10>BreakdownofHouseholdSavingsbyMotive

Source:BOKNationalAccounts,Authors’

calculations.

Adissectiononthedeterminantsbehind

thesavingsbuildupshowedmuchofthe

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Household

Ⅲ.Impactfrom

ExcessSavings

Theaccumulatedpersonalsavingscanbesourcedforconsumptionordebtpaymentandassetacquisition.

ButnotmuchoftheextrasavingsinKoreawerespentongoodsandservices.Thismayhavebeenpossiblebecausehouseholdfinanceswererelativelystrongonstableemploymentandgovernmentsupportuntillastyear.From2020to2022,householddisposableincomerose4.6%,fasterthan3.6%from2017to2019,helpingtocushiontheburdenonhouseholdsfromhigherinflationandinterestrates.Exceptfor2020,earnedincomekeptupstronggrowthannually,whilegovernmentreliefandstimulihandoutshelpedtooffsetthelossesin2020ortobolsterhouseholdincomein2022(<Figure11>).Fromthisyear,incomegrowthhasbeensharplyslowerthantheincreaseinconsumptiontosuggestsavingsstockcouldhavegonetofinancehouseholdspending(<Figure12>).

<Figure11>GrowthRateinNominalHouseholdNetDisposableIncome

Source:BOKNationalAccounts.

<Figure12>HouseholdIncomeandOutlay

Source:SFLCStatisticsKorea.

Theexcesssavingsstockalsohadnotgonemuchtopaydowndebt.Despitethespikeintheinterestrate,thepaceofdeleveragingofKoreanhouseholddebthasbeenslowerthanthatofmajoreconomies.HouseholddebtagainstGDPhasbeenfallingintheU.S.andeurzonesince2021,whereasthedegreeinKoreahasnotcomedownfromthepandemiclevels.Householdholdingsinbothfinancialassetsanddebtsurgedfrom2020to20224)tosuggestKoreanhouseholdsusedtheirsavingstoinvestinfinancialassetsratherthantopayoffdebt5)(<Figure13>and<Figure14>).

4)Calculationonthesavingsallocationisexplainedin<BOX1>.

<Figure13>AllocationofHousehold

Savings1)

Note:1)Propertyacquisitionsofthesamecategoryconsolidatedthroughnetting.

Sources:BOKNationalAccounts,flow-of-funds,Authors’calculations

<Figure14>HouseholdDebtShareto

GDP1)

Note:1)ThesumofnominalGDPofcurrentandpriorthreequarters.

Source:Centralbanksandstatisticsofficesofeachjurisdiction.

1,006trillionwon,sharplylargerthan591trillionwonaccumulatedfrom2017to20196).Ofthestock,thesurgewasmostevidentincashanddeposits,andequitiesandfunds.(<Figure15>).CashanddepositshavecontinuedtobuildupinKorea7),whichisauniquefeaturecomparedtoothermajoreconomiesoftheU.S.andeurozone.(<Figure16>).Netacquisitionoffinancialassetsincreasedgreatlyfrompre-pandemicperiodaccordingtothefindingonnetfinancialassetholdings(financialassetsminusfinancialliabilities).(<Figure17>).

<Figure15>HouseholdFinancialAssetGrowthduringPandemic1)

Note:1)Includestransactionfactorsand

non-transactionfactorssuchasthechangesinvaluation.

Source:BOKFlow-of-fundsdata.

Theexcesssavingsunusedforspending

anddebtrepaymentareplacedmostlyin

liquidfinancialassetslikedepositsand

equities.From2020to2022,household

holdingsinfinancialassetsstretchedby

5)Americanhouseholdshavebeeneagerinpayingoffdebtwiththeirextrapandemicsavings.AccordingtotheNewYorkFedSurveyofConsumerExpectationpublishedinMarch2021,Americansrespondedtheyplannedtosave41%oftheirthirdroundofstimulicheckanduse34%topaydowndebtand25%tospend.

6)Actualfinancialassetsareestimatedtohaveexceededthetrend(fromQ12015toQ42019)by365trillionwoninQ12013.

7)Cashanddepositholdingstookup46.9%ofhouseholdfinancialassetsattheendofQ12023,thehighestsince2011.

。

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<Figure16>CashandDepositAsset

SharetoGDP1)

Note:1)ThesumofnominalGDPofthecurrentquarterandpriorthreequarters.

Source:Centralbanksandstatisticsofficesofeachjurisdiction.

<Figure17>NetFinancialAsset

AcquisitionbyHouseholds1)

Note:1)Financialassets(undermanagement)minusfinancialliabilities(inoriginalaccount).

Source:FinancialTransactionTableinBOK

flow-of-fundsdata.

Ⅳ.ConclusionandImplications

Koreanhouseholdshoardedupsavingsofmorethan100trillionwonabovepre-pandemiclevel,holdinglargelyinliquidassets.Excesssavingsfrom2020to2022isestimatedat101~129trillionwon(4.7~6.0%againstnominalGDP).

Koreanhouseholdsarekeepingtheexcesssavingsinliquidfinancialassetsinsteadofusingthemtopaydownoroffdebt.Thephenomenonmightberesultedfromprecautionarybehaviorofouseholdsagainsthighuncertaintiesintheeconomicandfinancialconditions.

Thesizeablestockinexcesshouseholdsavingscan①mitigatethesluggishnessinconsumptionfromupsetsonincomefrontand②flowintotheassetmarketwithexpectationchanges.Theimprovedhouseholdbalancesheetscanbuffernegativeshockinincomeandlowerthedownsideriskinprivateconsumption(<Figure18>).

Sincemuchoftheexcesshouseholdsavingsareheldinliquidassets,theycanswiftlychannelintotheassetmarketdependingoneconomicconditions.Iftheexcesssavings,possiblyaccompanyingadditionalloans,leadtohousingpricerisesandslowhouseholddelevaraging,itcanbeaconcernforfinancialstability(<Figure19>).

Thispaperhasbasedaggregatedatatostudyhouseholdbalancesheetandneedstobebackedbymicroinspectiononheterogeneousbehaviorsacrosshouseholdincomeclass.

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<Figure18>ConsumptionResponseto

IncomeShock1)

Note:1)Marginalpropensitytoconsume.

Source:Authors’calculations.

<Figure19>ConsumerSurveyIndex(CSI)

onHousingPriceOutlook1)

andHomeTrade

Supply-DemandIndex2)

Note:1)Areadingbelow100meansexpectations

forhousingpricefallaregreaterthan

onesforarise.

2)Areadingbelow100meanssupplyis

greaterthandemand.

Source:BOK,KoreaRealEstateBoard.

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<Box1>

MeasurementonHouseholdSavingsAllocation

BasedonNationalAccountframework,thispaperassumesahouseholdusedsavings(S)andloans(ΔL)topurchaserealassets(ΔRA)andfinancialassets(ΔFA)tobeexpressedintheEquation1.TheEquation2calculatesthedegreeinwhichahouseholdusesthesavingsresourcetobuyrealorfinancialassets(excludingvaluationchanges)orpayoffdebt.

S十ΔL=ΔRA十ΔFA(Equation1)

?S=ΔRA十ΔFA—ΔL(Equation2)

ThehouseholdsavingsusedinthegraphisbasedonNationalIncomeAccountandtheborrowingsfromfinancialinstitutionsandnetacquisitionoffinancialassetsbasedonflow-of-fundsdata.TheacquisitioninrealassetsiscalculatedfromtheresidualinEquation1.

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References

KangJong-ku(2017).HouseholdDebtImpactonConsumptionandEconomicGrowth–FlowEffectandStockEffect-.BOKEconomicAnalysisVolume23No.2,28-57.

KimJae-chil(2021),ExcessSavingsofKoreanHouseholdssincePandemic,KoreaCapitalMarketInstitute,IssuePaper21-24.

OhT.,