國有企業(yè)私人部門儲蓄率的形成與演變

國有企業(yè)私人部門儲蓄率的形成與演變

體現(xiàn)了三四三大通過非價值...環(huán)保思想,包括三和三物三因素高稅收在中國的情況是顯而易見的。2008年，國際范院長委員會提出了一項法案，以增加中國的高稅收。AmpleliteraturehasnotedthatChinahashighersavingsratesthanmanyothercountriesAccordingtoastudybythePeople’sBankofChina,1thenationalsavingsrateinChinaduring1978-1997averagedmorethan10percentagepointshigherthanthoseofthedevelopedcountries.InWuJian’sresearch,theaveragenationalsavingsratewasestimatedat37.1percentduring1978-1997,stabilizingataround40percentafter1993.2KraaypointedouthattheaveragenationalsavingsrateinChinafrom1978to1995was37percent,comparedto21percentinothercountriesinthesameperiod.3KuijsalsonotedthatChina’ssavingsratein2003washigherthanthoseintheUS,France,JapanandSouthKoreain2002by28.2percent,21.8percent,17percentand11.5percentrespectively.4However,itshouldbenotedthatthedifferentstatisticalmethodsusedinChinaandothercountriesmayhaveexaggeratedthedifferencesintheirsavingsrates.RenRuoenandQinXiaosuggestedthat30percenofthesavingsrategapbetweenChinaandtheUSwascausedbydifferencesinstatisticamethodsforsavingsandincome.5Afteradjustingforstatisticalmethods,China’ssavingsrateaveraged22.69percentbetween1992and2001,farlessthanthe40percentestimatedbyotherstudies.Evenso,thegapbetweenthetwocountries’savingsrateswas15.87percent.Muchacademicliteraturehastriedtoexplorereasonsfordifferentsavingsrates.Theseinclude,amongothers,economicgrowth,economicdevelopmentstage,economiccycleincomedistribution,demographicstructureandinstitutionalset-upaswellasaprecautionarysavingsincentiveduetouncertainties.ThefirsttypeofexplanationisbasedontraditionaKeynesiantheory.Itholdsthatthesavingsratedependsondisposableincomeandmarginasavingspropensity.Thatis,S/Y=s0/Y+s,inwhichSstandsforsavings,smeansmarginasavingspropensityandYisincome.Lifecycletheorystatesthatgivenrelativelystablegrowthofdisposableincome,thesavingsratedependsonthegrowthrateofincome.Thatis,s/y=s0+sg+e,inwhichs0iscloseto0,s>0,gisthegrowthrateofincomeandetherandomerror.ModiglianiandCaofoundapositiverelationshipbetweenhouseholdsavingsrateandeconomicgrowthrate,dependencyratioandinflationusingdatafrom1953to2000.6ChenLipingintroducedarationalconsumptioncomparison,andfoundthatthemarginalutilityofcurrentconsumptionandfutureconsumptioncanincreasesimultaneously,andhighsavingscangeneratehighgrowthratesandviceversa.7WangDihaiandGongLiutangshowedthatChina’shighsavingsratesweremainlycausedbyhigheconomicgrowth,highcapitaloutputelasticity,ahighsubjectivediscountrateandmyopicexpectations.8Thesecondtypeofexplanationisbasedondemographicfactors.Thatis,thedemographicdividendresultingfromthefastergrowthrateoftheworkingpopulationasaproportionofthetotalcanleadtoincomeincreases,andtherebytohighersavingsrates.9InChina,theweakpensionsystemhaspushedupmarginalpropensitytosaveandreducedmarginalpropensitytoconsume,whichinturnraisedsavingsrates.10HoriokaandWanidentifiedahighcorrelationbetweenChina’shighsavingsrateanditsagestructure(childdependencyratioinparticular),realinterestratesandpastsavingsrates,usingprovincialdatafrom1995to2004.11WeiShangjinandZhangXiaobofoundthatthemovementsofChina’ssavingsratesweresimilartothoseofsexratiowitha20yeartimelag,during1975-2005.12Theirempiricalresultsobtainedfromprovinciadatashowedthatthesexratiowaspowerfulinexplainingthesavingsrates,withahigherregressioncoefficientfortheruralareasthanfortheurbanareas.Thethirdtypeoftheoryisbasedontheassumptionthatpeoplehaveaprecautionarysavingsincentiveintheprocessofinstitutionalchanges.Moststudiesconsiderthatasocialsecuritysafetynet,pensionshealthinsuranceandunemploymentinsurancecanreducetheuncertaintiesinfutureincomeandexpenditures,andtherebyreducesavingsrates.SongZhengarguesthatsignificanuncertaintiesinresidents’incomehaveraisedChina’ssavingsrate.13Anumberofempiricastudieshavealsofoundthatpensionreformandpensionwealthhavehadnotableimpactsonhouseholdsavingsrates.14ThispaperstudiestherisingsavingsrateinChinasince2000fromthepointofviewofpublicfinance.TheauthorsseparateoutSOEsfromenterprisesasawholeandcombinethemwiththegovernmentsectortoformthe“publicsector”;thissector’ssavingsratewecallthe“publicsectorsavingsrate.”Non-SOEsandprivateindividualsarecombinedintothe“privatesector”;itssavingsrateiscalledthe“privatesectorsavingsrate.”InconjunctionwiththecharacteristicsofChina’seconomictransitionperiod,thepaperputsforwardapublicfinancehypothesistoanalyzethecausesofthehighsavingsrateinChina.ThroughanalyzingthetransmissionmechanismoftheperformanceofSOEs,publicexpenditures,publicsectorsavingsandprivatesectorsavings,thepaperidentifiedthestrongimpactofgovernmenbehavioronsavingsrates(sectionIII).Thishypothesisisthentestedbyusing30-provincepaneldatafrom1992to2006insectionIV.u設(shè)備和規(guī)范使用perceningsoquesOnthebasisofdifferentsectors,thenationalsavingsratecanbeclassifiedasthesavingsratesofthegovernment,enterpriseandresidentsectorsorasthepublicsavingsrateandtheprivatesavingsrate.Duetodataconstraints,earlystudiesnormallydefinedgovernmensavingsrateastheratioofgovernmentsavingstoGDP,wherethegovernmentsavingsarethedifferencebetweenitsrecurrentincomeandrecurrentexpenditures.Thecalculationissubjectounderestimationofthegovernmentsavingsratebecauserecurrentincomedoesn’tincludeoff-budgetincomeandrecurrentexpendituresusuallyincludeinvestmentexpenditures.HeXinhuaandCaoYongfu,Kuijs,andLiYangandYinJianfengusedfundsflowstatementstoestimatethesavingsratesofdifferentsectors.15Inafundsflowstatement,thegovernmenincomeincludesbudgetaryandoff-budgetincome,andgovernmentconsumptionis“consumptionexpendituresofpublicservicesandthenetexpendituresofgoodsandservicesprovidedtohouseholdsfreeoratrelativelylowpricesbythegovernment.Theformerequalsthegapbetweenoutputvalueofpublicservicesandincomeofgovernmentagencies,andthelatterequalsthemarketvalueminusactualcollectedpricesofgoodsandservicesprovidedbythegovernmenttohouseholdsfreeoratrelativelylowprices.”16Thetwomainpurposesofgovernmentsavingsarecapitaltransferandinvestment.Figure1showsnationalsavingsratesfrom1992to2007,andthesavingsratesofresidentsgovernmentandenterprises.Thefollowingfeaturesarenoteworthy.First,national,residententerpriseandgovernmentsavingsratesaveraged42.48percent,19.69percent,16.13percenand6.66percentrespectively,withstandarderrorsof3.79percent,1.8percent,2.42percenand1.64percentrespectively.Althoughresidents’savingsaccountedforaroundhalfofnationalsavings,theirstandarderrorislowerthanthoseofnationalandenterprisessavingsDuring1992-2000,residents’savingsratefellfrom21.08percentto16.5percent,whilethenationalsavingsrateremainedaround40percent.After2000,theresidents’savingsratereturnedto21.82percentin2007;whileduringthatperiod,thenationalsavingsratejumpedfrom38.5percentto50.88percent.Moreover,priorto2000,thesavingsratesofgovernmenandenterpriseshadbeenstableataround5.5percentand14.8percentrespectively;from2000to2007,thegovernmentsavingsrateincreasedfrom6.4percentto10.6percent,andtheenterprisesavingsratefrom15.6percentto18.4percent.Thismeansthatchangesintheresidents’savingsratecannotexplainthechangesinthenationalsavingsrate.Kuijsarguedthatincreasedprofitabilitycapacityhadboostedtheenterprisesavingsrate,17whilecapitaltransferbythegovernmenttosupportSOEshadheightenedthesavingsrateofthegovernmentsector.LiYangandYinJianfengregardthegovernmentsectorasthemaindriveroftheincreasingsavingsrateafter2000.18TheydisagreewithKuijsinthattheyattributetherisingsavingsrateoftheenterprisesectortolowwageandinterestcostsratherthanprofitabilitycapacity,andtherisinggovernmentsavingsratetogovernmentinvestmentinSOEsinsteadofcapitaltransfer.Thesestudiesfailtoexploretherelationshipbetweentheenterpriseandthegovernmentsectors,aswellastheuniqueroleofSOEsinthechangesinthesavingsrate.Aftertaxreformsin1983,1984and1994,thefinancialindependenceoftheSOEswassignificantlyenhanced.However,thesegregationofgovernmentfrommanagementofstateownedassetsonlyregulatedtheprofit-sharingrelationshipbetweengovernmentandSOEsanddidnotchangetherelationshipofSOEsandthepublicsector.SOEshavesuppliedalargenumberoftaxrevenue.Duringtheperiodof2003-2007,SOEscontributed5.97trillionyuanintaxes;in2007alone,SOEtaxesreached1.57trillionyuan,or30percentoffiscalincomefortheyear.Thispaperdividesthenationalsavingsrateintothesavingsrateofthepublicsectorandthatoftheprivatesector.Incomputingpublicsectorandprivatesectorsavings,thepaperadjustsSOEprofitsduringtheperiod1992-2007.Thatis,thedisposableincomeofthepublicsectorequalsgovernmentdisposableincomeplusSOEprofits,whilethatoftheprivatesectorequalsenterprisedisposableincomeplusresidents’disposableincomeandminusSOEprofitAsenterpriseshavenofinalconsumption,thereisnoneedforadjustmenthere.Thatis,theconsumptionofthepublicandtheprivatesectorequalstheconsumptionofthegovernmenandresidents.Thecalculationofthesavingsrateissimilar(Figure2).Besidesthis,totalfisca(public)expendituresincludeexpendituresbycentralandlocalgovernmentsoncultureandeducation,science,health,socialsecurityandadministration,andtotalfiscalrevenueincludesfiscalrevenueandoff-budgetrevenue.IntheresearchbyKuijsandLiYangandYinJianfeng,nationalsavingsratesaredividedintoresident,governmentandenterprisesavingsrates,ignoringtheco-movementofgovernmentandSOEsavingsandleadingtotheconclusionthatthenationalsavingsratewasdrivenbyincreasesinthegovernmentandenterprisesavingsrates(Figure3).Accordingtothedisaggregationofthenationalsavingsrateinthispaper,thechangesinthenationasavingsrateslightlylagthoseinthepublicsectorsavingsrate,buthavethesametrendMeanwhile,theprivatesectorsavingsratehasbeenmostlystable;itschangeslagthoseofthepublicsectorsavingsrate,butinadifferentdirection.3.公共生活1.國際醫(yī)學(xué)單一品是while-ve顯著聯(lián)合while國際專家證據(jù),while.國際聯(lián)邦公利里亞,while.國際聯(lián)邦公利里,v.c.v..........................................................3.3.3Thereisnocleardefinitionforthegovernmentprofit-seekingincentive,andwenormallyuse“governmentpreference.”DingJuhongandDengKebindefinegovernmentpreferenceasthesupplypreferenceofthegovernment,meaningthescaleandstructureofgovernmentsupply,whichincludespublicgoodsandservicesprovidedbythegovernment.19Likegovernmentpreference,thegovernmentprofit-seekingincentivemeansthatthegovernmentmakeseconomicdecisionsaccordingtowhetheritwillbenefitfromsuchdecisions.Sucheconomicdecisionsincludesupplyofpublicgoodsandservices,aswellaschoiceofinvestmentandconsumptionstructure.Sincethetaxsystemreformin1994,theaverageannualgrowthrateofbudgetincomehasbeen19.3percent,1.39timesthenominalGDPgrowthrate,whiletheaverageannualgrowthrateofexpendituresoncultureandeducationandonscienceandhealthhasbeen15.8percent.Duringthesameperiod,theannualaveragegrowthrateofgovernmentinvestmenthasbeen18.7percent,whilethatofgovernmentconsumption15.16percent.Asgovernmentinvestmentcomesfromgovernmentsavings,20thehighergovernmentinvestmentgrowthratehaspusheduppublicsavingsrates.Intheabove-mentionedstudies,Kuijsconsiderscapitaltransferthemaindriverforgovernmentsavings,whileLiYangandYinJianfengregardgovernmentinvestmentasamoreimportantfactor.WeagreewithLiandYinthatgovernmentinvestmentismoreimportantthanfundstransferinpushingupthepublicsectorsavingsrate.IftheprofitabilityofSOEsdeclines,theshareofgovernmentdirectinvestmentwilldrop,whichwillleadtoadecliningmarginalpropensitytosaveandadecliningsavingsrate.Ontheotherhand,withincreasedprofitabilityofSOEs,thegovernmentismorelikelytoinvestinSOEsforprofit,whichwillcausesimultaneousincreasesinthemarginalpropensitytosaveandthesavingsratesofthepublicsectorandgovernment.Figures2and4showthatastheROAofSOEsreducedfrom3.8percentto0.14percentduringtheperiodof1994-1998,themarginalpropensitytosaveofthepublicsectorreducedfrom29.86percentto19.4percent,andthesavingsrateofthepublicsectordeclinedfrom7.9percentto5.5percent.Duringtheperiodof1998-2007,theprofitabilityofSOEsincreasedsubstantiallywithROAskyrocketingfrom0.14percentto4.9percent.Thishasbroughtthemarginalpropensitytosaveofthepublicsectorupfrom19.4percentto56.4percent,andthesectorsavingsratefrom3.5percentto17.4percent.ThisshowsahighcorrelationbetweenpublicsectorsavingsrateandSOEprofitability.2.ubrcsoin-soe,etizact,etizacting,etizacts,etThepublicfinancefunctionmeansthegovernmentroleinprovidingpublicgoodsandservicesthroughpublicexpenditures.Publicgoodsandservicesfeaturenon-exclusivenessandnon-competitiveness,andcaninducefree-ridingandreverseselectionifprovidedbytheprivatesectoronly.Typicalpublicgoodsandservicesincludecultureandeducationscienceandhealth,socialsecurity,nationaldefense,etc.Ifthegovernmentplaysitsroleandmaximizesthewelfareofsociety,thenitshouldprovidesufficientpublicgoodsandservicesotherwise,theremaybeshortagesinpublicgoodsandservicesifthegovernmentisaffectedbytheprofit-seekingincentiveineconomicdecision-making.Ascomparedtotheprovisionofcultureandeducation,scienceandhealth,andsocialsecurity,investmentininfrastructuresuchasrailways,highways,commercialcentersandindustrybasesmaycarrymoreexternalitiesSuchinvestmentwillhelpattractforeigncapitalintheshortterm,promoteeconomicgrowthandenhancegovernmentperformance.21Besides,thoseimplementinglargeprojectsarenormallySOEs,whichcontributeatremendousamountoftaxeswhileaddingvaluetotheirownassets.Underbudgetconstraints,thegovernmentismoreinclinedtoinvestinSOEs,anditssearchforprofitabilityislikelytocrowdouttheexecutionofitspublicfinancefunctions.Figure5showsthatchangesintheratioofpublicexpenditurestototalfiscalexpenditureslagchangesinSOEprofitability,andareinadifferentdirection.Duringtheperiodof1993-1998,SOEprofitabilityandpublicsectorsavingsratereduced,whileexpendituresoncultureandeducationscienceandhealth,andsocialsecurityincreased.However,suchexpendituresstabilizedaround2000,beforeadrasticdeclineafter2002.ThiscameaftertherapidincreaseinSOEprofits.After2000,SOEprofitincreasedbyahuge34percentperyear,andtheROAofSOEsincreasedfrom1.5percentto4.6percent.From2002to2006,theratioofpublicexpenditurestototalfiscarevenuefellfrom41percentto38.6percent.Thisshowsthatwhenthegovernmentpursuedprofit,itspublicfinancefunctions,especiallyexpendituresoncultureandeducation,scienceandhealth,andsocialsecuritywereweakened,whichaffectedprivatesectorsavingsrate.3.u3000resessoffirsityuffiecesindsp.4.3.4和......3.4.4和....4方法.u3000..............................3.4和......和.....4.3.4和....和.5.5Theprecautionarysavingshypothesisholdsthat,givenuncertaintiesinexpectationsoffutureincomeandexpenditures,householdswillsmoothcurrentandfutureconsumptionthroughsavings.Asstrongeducation,publichealthandsocialsecuritysystemscanhelptoreducefutureuncertainties,theycantherebyreducethecurrentsavingsoftheprivatesector.InChina,reformsinSOEs,education,health,housing,andsocialsecurityhavebeenimplementedsuccessivelysincethelate1990s.Thesehavestrengthenedtherelationshipbetweenprivatesectorsavingsbehavioranduncertainty.Manyempiricalstudieshavefoundthatincomeuncertaintyisoneofthemaincausesforresidents’savingsinChina.22Infact,futureexpenditureuncertaintiesarealsoveryimportantfortheirsavingsbehavior.LiYonghuiandWenJiaoxiunotethatresidentshavetomakeprecautionarysavingsasaresultofdifferentiatedschoolingfeesanduncertaintiesaboutfutureeducationexpenditures,aswellasweaknessesinthehealthcareandsocialsecuritysystems.23YangRudaiandChenBinkaifoundthatexpendituresonhighereducationsignificantlycrowdedoutresidents’consumption.24Thereformofhighereducationin1999notonlysignificantlyincreasedfamilies’needforeducationexpenditures,butalsoaffectedrelatedexpectationsforfuturehighereducation,andtherefore,enhancedresidents’incentiveforprecautionarysavings.HeLixinetal.alsofoundthatpensionshadstrongsubstitutioneffectsonhouseholdsavings.25Figure6showsthestandardizedprivatesectorsavingsrate,marginalpropensitytosaveoftheprivatesectorandratioofpublicsectorexpenditurestototalfiscalrevenue.Priorto1999therelationshipbetweenthethreevariableswasunstablebecauseofaseriesofeconomicreforms.After1999,thefirsttwovariableshavemovedinadirectiondifferentfrompublicexpenditures,withaslighttimelag.Whenthedemographicstructureandconsumptionpatternsstabilize,theinsufficientinvestmentinculture,education,scienceandpublichealthwillforceresidentstoincreasesavingstomeetexpendituresintheseareas.Whenthegovernmentincreasesinvestmentinculture,education,scienceandpublichealth,residentscanreduceinputsintheseareas.Inaddition,thechangesinsocialsecurityhavesimilarimpactsonnon-SOEs.Ifthegovernmentreducessocialsafetyexpenditures,socialsecurityfunctionswillbetransferredtonon-SOEs,forcingthemtoincreasesavings.4.抗混合性能增強soes和satchsTheaboveanalysisbringsustothepublicfinancehypothesis:therisingsavingsrateinChinaispromptedbythegovernment’sprofit-seekingbehaviorandtheconsequentcrowdingoutimpactofsuchbehavioronthepublicfinancefunction.Thatis,withtheimprovingprofitabilityofSOEsandstate-ownedcommercialbanksafter2000,thegovernmenthasinvestedmoreintheseentities,andreducedfiscalexpendituresoncultureandeducationhealthcareandsocialsecurity.Insufficientfiscalexpenditurehastwoimpacts:(i)highersavingsratesforgovernmentandSOEs,i.e.,ahigherpublicsectorsavingsrate;(ii)moreprecautionarysavingsbyresidentsandnon-publicenterprises,i.e.,ahigherprivatesectorsavingsrate.ThecombinedimpactsofthetwohavesustainedChina’srisingsavings.Thehypothesisisbuiltonthreeassumptions:Assumption1.Thegovernmentisself-interestedintheshort-term;Assumption2.Governmentbehaviorissubjecttobudgetconstraints;andAssumption3.Theprivatesectorhasincentivesforprecautionarysavings.Here,thegovernmentreferstothecentralgovernment,centralgovernmentagencies(mainlyfiscalauthorities)andlocalgovernments.Althoughthecentralgovernmentactsinthepublicinterest,thelocalgovernmentsandgovernmentagenciesarelikelytobeselfinterestedintheshort-term.Theself-interestedcharacterofthegovernmentmeansthawhenthegovernmentmakesdecisions,ittargetsmaximizingitsownwelfare,notthewelfareofsociety.Overthelongrun,thepublicinterestofthecentralgovernmentcanplayanimportantrole;however,theself-interestoflocalgovernmentsandcentralgovernmentagenciescanbesignificantintheshortrun.Infact,thisself-interestedcharacterhasdistortedsomecriticaldecisions,especiallywhenthegovernment’sself-interestisalignedwithitsperformance.InChina,suchshort-runself-interestcanbetheresultofgovernmenperformanceevaluation,fiscalpower-sharingbythecentralandlocalgovernmentspromotionofofficials,changesofleadershipanddifficultiesinmonitoringgovernmenexpenditures.Moreover,theself-interestednatureofthegovernmentisalsosubjecttobudgetconstraints.Basedontheabove-mentionedthreeassumptions,wehavethefollowingtwopropositions:Proposition1.WhentheperformanceofSOEsincreases,theshort-runprofit-seekingincentiveofthegovernmentwillraisethepublicsectorsavingsrate.Proposition2.Theprofit-seekingincentiveofthegovernmentcancrowdouttheexecutionofitspublicfinancefunction,whichwillraisetheprivatesectorsavingsrate.Proposition1impliesastrongcorrelationbetweenthepublicsectorsavingsrateandSOEperformance.Thatis,withbetterSOEperformance,thegovernmentismorelikelytoinvestinSOEstogainperformanceandbenefits.Proposition2statesthatunder(soft)budgetconstraintsthegovernment’sdirectinvestmentinSOEswillcrowdoutpublicexpenditures,whichwillpushuptheprivatesector’sprecautionarysavingsandtherebytheprivatesectorsavingsrate.國際社會主導(dǎo)地位的soe-satchings,vectorsaratio,清理劑,清理流程,規(guī)范點,即價...........................................................3.3.3Thispaperteststhepublicfinancehypothesisusingpaneldatafor30provincesfortheperiodof1997-2006.Thetestingfocusesontheimpactofpublicexpendituresonthesavingsratesofdifferentsectors.Themodelsareasfollows:Ofthese,PUBSRmeanspublicsectorsavingsrate,PUBEXPmeanstheratioofpublicexpenditurestoGDP,PRISRmeansprivatesectorsavingsrate,andSOEPERFmeanstheratioofSOEprofitstoGDP.X,YandZarethecontrollingvariablesinthethreemodelsMoreover,μit,εit,andφitareresiduals,andα1,β1,andγ1areconstantvectors,α2,β2,andγ2areparametervectorsforthekeyvariables,θ,λandφaretherespectiveparametervectorsforthecontrollingvariables.AccordingtoAssumption2,themaincauseofthechangesinthepublicsectorsavingsrateisthegovernmentprofit-seekingmotive.ThegovernmentwillincreasedirectinvestmentinSOEsastheirperformanceimproves.Thiswillinturnraisethepublicsectorsavingsrateandcrowdoutpublicexpenditures,makingthemarginalpropensitytosaveincrease.Thismeansthatα2shouldbepositiveandsignificant,whileβ2shouldbenegativeandsignificant.Atthesametime,publicexpendituresaffecttheprivatesectorsavingsrate.Giventheincomeanddemographicstructure,asthegovernmentreducespublicexpenditures,theprivatesectorsavingsratewillincrease.Thismeansthatγ2shouldbenegativeandsignificant.1.fitseriececinpenssiciding(1)Savingsrate.26Duetolackofprovincial-levelflowoffundsstatements,thenationasavingsrateiscalculatedastheratioofGDPminusfinalconsumptiontoGDP.Foreachprovince,thepublicsectorsavingsrateistheratiotoprovincialGDPoffiscalrevenueplusoff-budgetincomeplusSOEprofitsminusgovernmentconsumption.Theprivatesectorsavingsrateisthegapbetweenthenationalsavingsrateandthepublicsectorsavingsrate.Ofthese,localgovernmentincomeincludesbudgetaryincome,centralgovernmensubsidies,provincialsubsidies,residualofthepreviousyear’sincomefromturningtreasurybondsintoloans,andresidualfromlocalincomeofthepreviousyear.ThedataforGDPandgovernmentconsumptionarefromvariousyearsofStatisticalYearbook,whilethedataforfiscalrevenue,off-budgetrevenueandSOEprofitsarefromtheFiscalStatisticsYearbookinvariousyears.(2)RatioofpublicexpenditurestoGDP,andSOEperformance.Publicexpendituresincludeexpendituresonpublicinfrastructure,education,socialsecurity,health,scienceandculture,administration,andthelike.Thispaperfocusesontheimpactofpublicexpendituresonprivatesavings;asthepublicexpendituresoninfrastructurearemostlythedirectinvestmentinSOEs,thepublicexpenditureinthispaperisthereforedefinedasexpenditureonculture,education,scienceandhealth,socialsecurityandadministration.TheratioofpublicexpenditurestoGDPcorrespondstotheexecutionofpublicfunctions.WhentheratioofpublicexpenditurestoGDPdeclines,thefiscalfunctionistransferredtotheprivatesectorAsaresult,theprivatesectorhastoincreasesavingstocoverexpendituresoneducationandhealth.Notethatdataoncultureandeducation,scienceandhealth,socialsecurityandadministrationarefromtheFiscalStatisticsYearbook.SOEperformanceisdenotedbytheROAofSOEs,alsofromtheFiscalStatisticsYearbook.(3)Othercontrolvariables.Theabsoluteincomehypothesisstatesthatthesavingsrateshouldbetheratioofsavingstoincomeinthecurrentperiod.Thelife-cyclehypothesisholdsthatafamilyarrangesitsconsumptionandsavingsaccordingtoitsexpectedlifetimeincomeinordertomaximizelifetimeutility.Alifetimecanbedividedintoyouth,middleageandoldage.Duringtheperiodsofyouthandoldage,consumptionisgreaterthanincome;whileintheperiodofmiddleage,consumptionislessthanincome.Asaresult,iftheproportionoftheyoungandtheoldincreases,thesavingsratewillreduce.ModiglianiandCaoalsofoundthathesavingsrateinChinaisaresultofeconomicgrowthanddemographicfactors.27Inmodel(1),GDPpercapitaanditsgrowthratearecontrollingvariables.Consideringthedifferencesinabsoluteprovincialpublicexpenditures,themodelintroducespublicexpenditurespercapitaasacontrolvariable.Inmodel(2),demographicvariablessuchasYoungandOldareintroduced.Youngdenotestheproportionofthepopulationyoungerthan14years,andOldreferstotheproportionofpopulationolderthan65years.Aswell,thepaperdiscussestheimpactofinterestrates,inflation,andsexratioonsavingsrates.Inaddition,dummyvariablesforregionsareintroducedtodefineregionaldifferenceinChina.AlldatacomefromtheStatisticsYearbookandFiscalStatisticalYearbook.2.通過非負事件直接反應(yīng)表...............................................................Thispaperappliesthefixedeffectsmodel,randomeffectsmodelandseeminglyunrelatedregression(SUR)totestthehypothesis.First,Models1and2applyfixedandrandomeffectsmodelsrespectivelyforsimulation,andthe