GP+Bullhound科技預(yù)測：推動技術(shù)發(fā)展的十大趨勢

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Contents

04THEVIEWFROM

GPBULLHOUND

05OUR2024TECHNOLOGY

PREDICTIONSTAKEAWAYS

06RECAPOF2023

PREDICTIONS

08PREDICTION1

LargeLanguageModelsbecomesmaller,disruptingtheAImarket

11PREDICTION2

Bitstobillions:legacydataspursacquisitionboom

14PREDICTION3

Privatesectortospearheadspacerevitalisation

17EXPERTVIEW

DanCeperley,

LeoLabs

20PREDICTION4

TheriseofauthenticityascreatorschallengeAI

23PREDICTION5

AR/VR&AIfuelasurgein

immersiveeducationinvestments

26EXPERTVIEW

RichardVincent,

FundamentalVR

29PREDICTION6

Apple'sexpandedsubscription

servicewithad-freesearchengine

31PREDICTION7

Anti-moneylaunderingandpayment

protectionscomecentre-stage

34PREDICTION8

AIisreshapingmediawith

personalisedcontentandacquisitions

36PREDICTION9

AIraceescalatessemiconductor

shortage

39PREDICTION10

Accelerationofcarbonaccounting

asnewregulationsloom

43ALOOKBACKAT

GPBULLHOUND'SPAST

PREDICTIONS

49METHODOLOGYANDAUTHORS

50DISCLAIMER

4THEVIEWFROM

GPBULLHOUND

Theview

FROMGPBULLHOUND

Nowinits17thyear,GPBullhound'sTechnologyPredictionsreportmaintainsitsreputationforindustry-leadingaccuracy,withnearly90%ofourpredictionsrealised.Leveragingour

experiencewithcutting-edgesoftwareandglobalmarketinsights,weareexcitedtounveilourpredictionsfor2024,continuingourlegacyofidentifyingtransformativetrendsinthetechnologysector.

THESTATEOFTHEMARKET

Aswetransitionfrom2023to2024,theprofoundimpactofartificial

intelligenceontechnologyandits

promisingfutureisundeniable.Inaclimateofeconomicuncertainty,AIisthecornerstoneofourforecasts

forthecomingyear.Keytrends

PerRoman

MANAGINGPARTNER,GPBULLHOUND

includetheorganisationoflegacy

data,thecommoditisationoflargelanguagemodels,andtheongoingsemiconductorshortage,drivenbyincreasingdemandforAI-optimisedhardware.

Thesedevelopmentsareopeningupnewavenues,suchasthe

revitalisationofspaceexploration.

Aswenavigatethiscomplexyet

exhilaratinglandscape,weproudlypresentourpredictionsfor2024,offeringinsightsintotheupcomingopportunitiesandchallengesthatawaitusall.

AlecDafferner

PARTNER,GPBULLHOUND

GPBUIhound

THEVIEWFROM5

GPBULLHOUND

OUR2024PREDICTIONS

Followingaturbulentyear,2024heraldsarenewedoptimismregardingtechnology’s

potential.ArtificialIntelligencecontinuestoplayanincreasinglypivotalrole,withbusinessesreevaluatingtheirentireofferingstoleverageitspower.ButcreatorsarefightingbackonAI,

bringingarenewedfocusonthevalueofhuman-createdcontent.Technologyislaunchingintospacemorethanfiguratively,withtheprivatesectorspearheadinganewSpaceRace,leveragingcommercialopportunitiesinorbit.Theworld’smostvaluablebutunrefined

resource,data,continuestofueleverythingwedoonline,asbusinessesturntogen-AItoharnessitspotential.Here’swhat’sinstorefor2024.

1:LargeLanguageModelsbecomesmaller,disruptingtheAImarket

.Largemodelsdemandgreaterresources,withhigherexpensesandslowerresponsetimes

.Smallermodelsyieldbetterresultsinsomecases,breakingdowncompetitivebarriers

3:Privatesectortospearheadspacerevitalisation

.SatellitesorbitingEarthtoincreasefromc.8,000todayto>100,000in10years(3)

.Privatesectorcompaniesareleadingthewayasthespaceindustryexpands

5:AR/VR&AIfuelasurgeinimmersiveeducationinvestments

.USedtechcompaniesraised$5.2bnin2022(4),

drivenbydemandforAI-poweredlearning.EnterprisesleveragingAR/VRtotrainandupskillemployeesinunprecedentedways

7:AMLandpaymentprotectionscomecentre-stage

.AMLmarket,drivenbydigitaltransactions,growingatCAGRof15.9%2023-2030(5)

.Regulatorycompliancegrowsasillicitwalletssendc.20%offunds(6)throughDeFi

9:AIraceescalatessemiconductorshortage

.AI-drivenapplicationsmultiplying,addingstrainonsemissupplythatcaterstothem

.LargecloudprovidersinaracetoinvestinGPUsorriskfallingbehind

2:Bitstobillions:legacydataspursacquisitionboom

.90%ofcompanydataisunstructured(1),butit’snolongeruselessthankstogen-AI

.NewgenerationAIusesaslittleas1/10ofthedata(2)oftraditionalarchitectures

4:TheriseofauthenticityascreatorschallengeAI

.2024willbeabattlegroundbetweenAI-

generatedandhumancontent

.ToolsthatobstructAIfromtrainingoff

human-createdcontentwillsurge

6.Apple'sexpandedsubscriptionservicewithad-freesearchengine

.AnApplesearchengineisthemissingpieceinitsinternetstrategy

.SearchenginetorivalGoogleisunderway

despitethelatter’sbidforiOSdefault

8:AIisreshapingmediawith

personalisedcontentandacquisitions

.AIforcesbusinessestorethinkentire

offeringstoremaincompetitive

.AIresilientinmarketdownturnwith$23bninfundingin2023inUSalone(7)

10:Accelerationofcarbonaccountingasnewregulationsloom

.Only10%ofcompaniescomprehensively

measuredemissionfootprintin2022(8)

.Greentechcompaniesracetocreatemoreautomatedcarbonaccountingsoftware

Sources:(1)IDCWhitePaper:“UntappedValue:WhatEveryExecutiveNeedstoKnowAboutUnstructuredData”,(2)BCG:“TheKeytoDigitalTransformation”,(3)UnitedNationsOfficeforOuterSpaceAffairs,(4)ReachCapital,(5)GrandViewResearch,(6)Investopedia,(7)Pitchbook,(8)BCG

YES

YES

-

NO

YES

YES

6RECAPPREDICTIONS

2023

RecapofGPBullhound's

2023PREDICTIONS

Asthecurtainscloseon2023,atransformativeyearfulloftriumphsandtrials,thereismuchtocontemplate.Ontheonehand,NaturalLanguageProcessing(NLP)significantlyinfluencedbusinessstrategies,enablingreal-timeanalyticsandtakingconsumerengagementtoan

unprecedentedlevel.Ontheotherhand,wewitnessedaseismicshiftincybersecurity,as

enterprisesincreasinglyadoptedazero-trustarchitecturetostrengthentheirdefences.

Andiftherewasaconsistentthemeunderlyingallthesechanges,itwasthecriticalroleofsemiconductors,whichpoweredeverythingfromsmartphonestoautonomousvehiclesandhigh-speeddatacentres.Aswereflectonthepastyear,welookintothelessonslearned

from2023.

NATURALLANGUAGE

PROCESSINGAWATERSHEDFORBUSINESSSTRATEGIES

Thetechnologyhasvalidatedthepredictionandexceededexpectationsinitsapplication.One

ofthemostcompellingreasonsthispredictionprovedaccurateistheexponentialdevelopmentofNLPtechnologies.NLPshaveadvancedtothepointofunderstandingcontextandnuance.

Thishasledtomoreintelligentinteractions

betweenmachinesandhumans.Companies

havequicklyadoptedthesecapabilities–morethanhalfofFortune500companiesuseNLPforsentimentanalysis,therebytransformingtheirmarketingstrategies(1).

INTERACTIVITYANDCHANNELSELECTIONAREADSTREAM

GAME-CHANGERS

ThedelayedGooglecookiepolicyhasatwo-foldimpactontheadindustry'sshifttowardsinteractivityandchannelselection.Whileit

givesadvertiserstimetoadapttoacookielessenvironment,itmayslowtheuptakeofdata-drivenadformats.However,datafromIAB

showsthat60%and70%ofCTVadvertisers

plantoupinvestmentininteractiveand

addressableads,respectively,in2024.This

indicatescontinuedfaithintheseformats.

Alternativetargetingmethods,likecontextualandcohort-basedtargeting,remainviable

inacookielessworld,suggestingthatthe

delaywon'tsignificantlyhinderthegrowthofinteractiveandaddressableadvertising.

TIKTOKTHENEXTKINGOF

SOCIALMEDIAADVERTISING

In2023,TikToksolidifieditsroleasaleading

platforminsocialmediaadvertising,hitting

twobillionglobaldownloadsandseeinga

75%YoYincreaseinadrevenue(2).CBInsightspredictsitsadrevenuewillreach$15bnthis

year,andeMarketerranksitasthethird-largestadplatformintheUS.Moreover,accordingto

SproutSocial,89%ofmarketersplantouse

TikTokforadvertisingin2023.Adweekidentifiesitasthemosteffectiveplatformforreaching

GenZ.

ENERGY-SAVINGAPPS

ANDNEXT-GENBATTERIESPOWERINGTHETECHRACE

Energy-savingappsaregainingtractionastheyenablesmarterenergyconsumption,withthe

homeenergymanagementsystemsmarket

estimatedtoreach$6.2bnby2025(3).These

advancementsserveenvironmentalgoalsandfueltechinnovation,leadingtomoreefficient

devicesandsystems.ProgressinIoTandAI

areenhancingthecapabilitiesoftheseapps.

TheJournalofCleanerProductionnotedthat

integratingIoTdeviceswithenergy-savingappscouldleadtoa15-18%reductioninhouseholdenergyconsumption.

Sources:(1)Deloitte,(2)CBInsights(3)MarketsandMarkets

YES

YES

YES

NO

NO

YES

RECAPPREDICTIONS7

2023

TIPPINGPOINTOF

CYBERSECURITYAND

BROKENCIRCLESOFTRUST

Marketdatasupportstheideaofcybersecurityasaseculargrowtharea.Gartnerprojected

a12%year-over-yeargrowthinworldwide

spendingoncybersecurityto$150.4bnin2023.

Majorprovidershavebeenquicktoadapt.

CompanieslikeCiscoandPaloAltoNetworkshaveaggressivelyconsolidated,acquiring

smallerfirmstoprovidefullend-to-end

solutions.Cisco'sacquisitionofDuoSecurityfor$2.35bnandPaloAltoNetworks'purchaseof

CloudGenixfor$420marecasesinpoint.

TALENTMANAGEMENT

BUILDINGTHEFUTUREOF

THEWORKPLACE

Companiesincreasinglyadoptedremoteworkoptions,leadingtoa40%uptickincloud-

basedtalentmanagementsoftwareusage(4).

Theseadvancedsystemsfilledskillsgaps

throughcontinuallearningandimproved

employeeretentionby15%(5).Furthermore,

dataanalyticsbecamecentraltoHR

decisions,acceleratingtime-to-hireby25%(6).Overall,themodernisedapproachtotalent

managementhasbecomeindispensablefor

companiesstrivingforefficiency,productivity,andemployeesatisfaction.

SOFTWAREDRIVING

SUSTAINABILITY

InvestmentinsoftwarestartupsfocusedonESGandsustainabilityisskyrocketing,with$90bn

investedinH12023,accordingtoPitchBook.Thiswilloutpacethe$180bnrecordsetin

2022.CBInsightscorroboratesthistrend,

reporting$25bninclimatetechinvestments,ledbysoftwarefirms.AnAccenturestudy

revealedthat75%oforganisationsusesoftware

forenvironmentalgoalsand60%forsocial

andgovernanceimprovement.TheWorld

EconomicForumprojectstheglobalmarketforsustainabilitysoftwaretohit$1tnby2025.

E-COMMERCE,BUTMAKE

ITSOCIAL

Despitehighexpectationsthatsocial

e-commercewouldrevolutionisethemarketin2023,thetrendfailedtoachievemainstreamacceptancethisyear.Livestreamshopping

eventsshowedlower-than-anticipated

adoptionrates,and,whilepilotprojects

suggestedhighROIs,salesincreasesfor

mostbrandshavebeenmodestin2023.Withconsumerswaryofdatabreachesinvolving

socialcommerceplatforms,thisbranchof

e-commercewillhavetoovercomesome

challengesandfocusmoreonsecuritybeforewidespreadadoptioninthefuture.

ROBOTICSNOLONGERSCI-FI

Theexpectationsforrobotswithadvanced

cognitiveabilitiestobecomemainstream

andsignificantlyreplaceskilledlabourin

2023havefallenshort.Keybarriersinclude

limitedcognitivecapabilitiesinexistingrobots,

preventingthemfromtakingovertasksrequiringcomplexdecision-makingandadaptability.Costremainsasignificantfactor,too,withtheaveragedeploymentatc.$100k,makingitinaccessible

formanybusinesses(7).RegulatoryhurdlesintheUSandtheEUhavealsosloweddowntherateofadoptioninhealthcareandtransportation.

SEMISRULETHEWORLD

Despiteinitialexpectationsofadownturnin

semiconductorcapitalequipmentspending,

investmentexceededmarketforecasts.The

USandChinarampedupdomesticproductiontoreducedependencyonforeignsuppliers,

intensifyingcompetition.TheEU'sinitiative

tocapture20%oftheglobalsemiconductor

manufacturingmarketby2030(8)also

contributedtoheightenedspend.Breakthroughs

inAI,IoTand5Gfurtheraccelerateddemand,exacerbatingexistingshortages.Theglobal

semiconductormarketgrewby12%YoY,

reachingavaluationof$600bnin2023(9).

Sources:(4)GPBullhoundInsights,(5)Deloitte,(6)Gartner,(7)RoboticsBusinessReview,(8)EuropeanCommission,(9)McKinsey&Company

8PREDICTION1

01

LargeLanguageModelsbecome

smaller,disruptingtheAImarket

AnAImodel’sparametercountdenoteshowmuchcomplexityandnuanceanAI

modelcancapture.EversinceGoogle’sseminalpaper“Attentionisallyouneed”

from2017wheretheyintroducedthetransformerarchitectureforAImodels,whichgaverisetotheLargeLanguageModels(LLMs)likeChatGPT,theparametercount

hasessentiallybeenthemeasureofhowgoodthemodelis,withbiggerbeingbetter.Butlargeparametersdonotcomewithouttheirtrade-offsandtheirincreasing

numberdoesnotalwaysequalbetterperformance.

COMPANIESTOWATCH

ANTHROP\C

DDoctrineIlEIevenLabs

Renass

eplicate

stability.ai

)EFINE).N

replit

d-Matrix

GPBUIhound

PREDICTION1

9

LARGELANGUAGEMODELSBECOMESMALLER,DISRUPTINGTHEAIMARKET

INAI,BIGGERISBETTER…UNTILITISNOT

OpenAI’sGPTmodelshavesteadilyincreasedtheirparameters,wheretheGPT-1had

117millionparameters,andthemostrecentGPT-4around1.8tnparameters.With

everygeneration,theparametercounthasincreasedandwithit,theperformancehas

improved.Butanever-increasingparametercountdoesnotcomewithoutitsassociatedcompromises.Aside-effectofincreasinglylargemodelsistheygetcomputationally

moreresource-intensivetotrainanduse,withhighercostsandenergyusage,moretrainingtimerequired,andslowerqueryresponsetimes.ThepropensityofthemostprominentAIstartupslikeOpenAIandAnthropictopartnerwithhyperscalecloud

providers(MicrosoftandAmazon,respectively),islikelypartlyduetohelpoffset

theskyrocketinginfrastructureandcostrequirementsoftrainingandhostingtheseincreasinglylargemodels.

Increasedparametersdonotnecessarilytranslatetoimprovedperformanceeither.

WhenAIisappliedtomorefocusedusecases,asmaller,moretargetedmodelcan

yieldbetterresultsthanalargerone.Forexample,Replit’scomparativelytiny3billionparametermodelfocusedoncodingcanoutperformsignificantlylargermodelslike

ChatGPT.AnotherexampleisApple’siOS17update–iPhonesrunatinytransformermodelon-deviceforimprovedkeyboardautocorrectandwordprediction.

Mostimportantly,withthehighest-performingAImodelsbeingclosed-sourceand

comingfromfinancially-motivatedcommercialentities,thereisacounter-movementintheopen-sourcecommunitytodevelopitsownsmallerandmoreoptimisedAImodelsandmakethemasperformantasthecommercialones.Surprisingly,Metaisoneofthekeyplayersdrivingthismovementwithitsopen-sourceLLaMAmodels,themostrecentbeingclosetoasperformantasOpenAI’smodelsbutbeing30xcheapertorundue

toitssmallersize.Morerecently,theEuropeanstartupMistral,whichraiseda$113mseedroundinJune2023,releaseda7billionparametermodelinSeptemberthatwasmoreperformantthanMeta’s13billionmodel,meaninganadditional2ximprovement.Theseopen-sourcestridesarelikelybecauseMeta,Mistralandothersbelievethat

commoditisingAIistheonlywaytobreakdownthecompetitivebarriersthatOpenAI,Google,andAnthropicotherwisesetup.Tocounterthismovement,OpenAIhas

continuouslyloweredthepricesofitsmodels,withthelatestversionoftheGPT-3APIfordeveloperscosting97.5%lessthanitdidatlaunchin2020.However,itisunclearhowmuchofthatpricedecreasecomesfrommodeloptimisationversusoffsettingthecostsofstayingcompetitive.

Sources:Twitter,Anyscore,Mistral

GPBUIhound

2017-12

2018-06

2018-12

2019-06

2019-12

2020-06

2020-12

2021-06

2021-12

2022-06

2022-12

2023-06

2020-06

2020-09

2020-12

2021-03

2021-06

2021-09

2021-12

2022-03

2022-06

2022-09

2022-12

2023-03

2023-06

$1.5

10PREDICTION1LARGELANGUAGEMODELS

BECOMESMALLER,DISRUPTING

THEAIMARKET

THECOMMODITISATIONOFAI

Allthisconsidered,wepredictthatGPT-5,oncereleased,willturnthistrendandbesmallerthanitspredecessor.Therewilllikelystillbeapushfromtheresearchcommunitytoexperimentwithlargermodels,butfromapracticalandcommercialstandpoint,thenextstate-of-the-artmodelwillbesmaller,notbigger.

Inaddition,thisoverarchingtrendwillresultinAImodelsbecomingincreasingly

commoditised,wheremorecompaniescanrunbetterAImodelsforcheaper.Itis

expectedmorecompanieswilladoptAIfeaturesintotheirproducts,whichinturn

willmakeitincreasinglydifficulttomarketandsellAIfeaturesforapremium,seeing

thatitwillbecomeincreasinglyeasyforcompetitorstoprovidethesameofferingat

continuouslylowerpricesuntilallexcessearningsfromAIfeaturesarecompeted

away.Whenitcomestopure-playAImodelproviderslikeOpenAIandAnthropic,this

commoditisationmeansitwilllikelybecomeincreasinglydifficultforthemtocompeteifalltheydoisprovideaccesstoanAImodelthroughanAPIorchatinterface.Assuch,wearealreadyseeingthesecompaniesexpandingtheirofferingbeyondthemodelsbyintegratingcloserwiththeircustomers,productsanddata,andprovidingextensions

andsupplementalfeaturestotheirchatplatforms.

2E+122E+122E+121E+121E+121E+128E+116E+114E+112E+110E+00

GPTMODELPARAMETERCOUNT

GPT-4

GPT-3

GPT-1

GPT-2

Source:Twitter

OPENAIGPT-3PRICE,$PER1MTOKENSSINCELAUNCH

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

$60

$20

$2

Source:OpenAI

Note:Tokens=Piecesofwords,where1,000tokensisc.750words

GBUIhound

PREDICTION211

02

Bitstobillions:legacydataspurs

acquisitionboom

EversinceBritishMathematicianCliveHumbydeclaredthat“dataisthenewoil”in2006,wehavebecomeawarethatdataisapreciousasset.However,justlike

oil,itneedstoberefinedforustobeabletotapthatvalue.Almosttwodecadeslater,thebleakrealityisthatover2/3ofallenterprisedatagoesunusedand90%isunstructured,meaningithasbeeninalargelyunorganisedandunsearchable

format,renderingituseless.Untilnow.

COMPANIESTOWATCH

Revenueg

DIDOMI

klarna:

Typeform

ecoadis

Naturacycles°

RRepRisk

Ravenpack

STRATIO

(watershed

Source:Seagate“RethinkData”Report

GPBUIhound

12PREDICTION2BITSTOBILLIONS:LEGACYDATA

SPURSACQUISITIONBOOM

THENEWOILTHATNEVERWAS

Whilemostorganisationshavestruggledtounlockamoresignificantportionofthe

valuewithintheirdata,techcompanieslikeAlphabet(Google),Meta(Facebook),

andAmazonhaverealisedmostofthatvalue.Throughtheirscaleandnativelydigital

products,thesecompanieshavecapturedtremendousamountsofstructureddata

oftheirusersandcustomers,whichtheyhaveusedtotargetadvertisementsand

optimiseoutcomes.Ontheotherhand,mostothercompanieshavehaddifficulties

realisingthevalueofdata,with70%ofcompanies’digitaltransformationsfallingshortoftheirobjectives.

AITOTHERESCUE

TheadventofanewgenerationofmachinelearningtechniquesandAImodelshas

changedthisdynamicalmostovernight.Allofthisunstructureddataisnolonger

useless,asnewAImodelscanuseitbytrainingthemselvesonlargevolumesof

dataandgeneralisingknowledgefromit.ThesenewAImodelsarealsovastlymoreperformantwhenappliedtospecialisedsectorslikemedicineandlaw,astheycan

leverageafoundationofgeneralknowledgeandthenbefine-tunedfortheirindustryusingdomain-specificdata.Thismethodcanreducethedatarequirementto1/10ofwhatitwasbefore,allowingsmallerdatasetsthatpreviouslyseemedworthlessto

becomeincrediblyvaluableinstantly.

Thefactthatwenowuselessstructureddataanddosofromsignificantlysmaller

volumesmakesorganisationslookinwardtoseeifitmightsitondatatheycanrealisevaluefrom.Surprisinglyoften,manyorganisationsdo,andwhenusedtotrainAI

models,theycanvastlyimprovetheiroperationalefficiency.Forexample:

.EcoVadis,whichcreatessustainabilityratingsforthelargestorganisationsintheworld,isnowrealisingthevalueofitsdatafromthe100,000+companiesithasratedtodateandhasstartedexploringtraininganAImodelonthedatatohelpautomatemanualpartsofthisratingprocess.

.HackerOneusesitsglobalnetworkofethicalhackerstoidentifyandclosesecurityvulnerabilitiesfortheworld’slargestenterprises.HackerOnespendssignificant

timetranslatingintricatevulnerabilityassessmentsfromitshackerstoactionablereportsitscustomerscanunderstandandaddress.Havingdonethisforover10

years,HackerOneisnowevaluatingtheprospectoftrainingaprivateAImodelonthedatafrompastreportstohelpautomatetheprocess.

Sources:Seagate“RethinkData”Report,BCG:“TheKeytoDigitalTransformation”,NatureJournal

GPBUIhound

PREDICTION2BITSTOBILLIONS:LEGACYDATA13

SPURSACQUISITIONBOOM

HARNESSINGTHEGOLDMINE

WepredictthatthisnewfoundvalueinorganisationaldatathroughAIwillleadtoa

waveofacquisitionsin2024ofcompaniesprimarilytogainaccesstotheirdata.Thesecompanieswillhavebeendoingthesamerepetitivetasksoverandoverforyears,and

likewithEcoVadisandHackerOne,theycannowusethatdatatotrainAImodelstohelpautomatetheprocesses.

Anearlyexampleofthisisfromemissionmeasurementandreportingcompany

Watershed’sacquisitionofVitalMetricsinearly2023togetaccesstoitsenvironmentaldatacollectedoveralmost20yearsofconsultingandgreenhousegasaccounting

management.AnotheroneisminingtechnologycompanyVeracio’sacquisitionofMinalyzeinSeptember2023togetaccesstoitsgeologicaldataandvisualisation

software.However,wepredicttheseareonlythefirstofmanysuchacquisitionstocome.

68%

90%

1/101

Untiltoday,morethan?ofcompany

datahasgoneunused(68%)

90%ofcompanydataisunstructured

WiththenewgenerationofAImodel

architectures,wecanachievethe

sameperformanceaswithtraditional

architectures,butbyusingaslittleas

1/10ofthedata

Sources:Seagate“RethinkData”Report,BCG:“TheKeytoDigitalTransformation”,NatureJournal

GPBUIhound

14PREDICTION3

03

Privatesectortospearheadspace

revitalisation

AfterdecadesofreducedfocusfollowingtheMoonlandingandtheColdWar-eraspacerace,wehavefoundourselvesamidanewspacecompetition.Thistime,

however,itisnotdrivenbygovernments,theUSortheSovietUnion.Thistime,itisaracefromtheprivatesectortryingtoleveragespacetobuildcommercialopportunitiesbyusingitasanewpathtoextendandimprovetheinfrastructureforusonEarth.

COMPANIESTOWATCH

AAIRMO

/ILBEDO

HawkEyeo

KUVASPACE

Relati=ity

Rerbi

LEAFSPACE

OPENCSM●S

Eynet

tomorrow。

GPBUIhound

PREDICTION3PRIVATESECTORTOSPEARHEAD15

SPACEREVITALISATION

THESPACERACEFOREARTH

Toillustrate,wehaveseenonlyoverthelastfewyears:

.SpaceX,OneWeb,Amazon,andothersdeploythousandsofsatellitesintoorbittoprovidebroadbandinternetaccesstoremoteandconflict-strickenareas.

.PlanetLabs,Maxar,BlackSky,GHGSatandothersusesatellitestocollecthigh-resolutionimageryofEarthtoaidindisasterresponse,provideintelligence,andmonitorclimatechange.

.AxiomSpace,VoyagerSpace,BlueOrigin,andothersusethemicrogravity

environmentofspacetoconductlabresearchandexperimentsthatareimpossibleonEarth.

EvenApple’siPhonenowadaysconnectswithsatellitetechnologyforitsEmergency

SOSandRoadsideAssistancefeatureswhenacellularconnectionisunavailable.Evenifwedonotnoticeit,spaceisbecominganincreasinglylargepartofourdailylivesandsocietyonEarthatlarge.

THEEMERGINGECOSYSTEMFORSPACE

JustlikeEarthneedsrailways,containerships,andairtrafficcontrol,theexpansionofthespaceindustryiscreatinganemergingecosystemofsupportinginfrastructure,products,andservices.

LeoLabs,forexample,usesground-basedradarsallaroundtheglobetomapand

monitorallobjectsinspace.Withthisdata,LeoLabsprovidesasoftwaresolutionto

satelliteoperatorsforavoidingcollisionswithspacedebrisandothersatellites.This

helpssolveanincreasinglyvitalproblemfortheindustryasspaceisgettingcongested,withtheUnitedNationsexpectingthenumberofsatellitesorbitingEarthtoincrease

fromapproximately8,000todaytoover100,000inthecomingdecade,with90%ofsatellitesorbitingEarthatthesameapproximatealtitude-low-earthorbit(LEO).

Moreover,weareseeingvastimprovementsinthecostofsendingpayloadsinto

space,withSpaceXinchingcloserandclosertosuccessfullylaunchingitsStarshiprocketintoorbit.

Comparedtoitspredecessor,Starshipcanpotentiallyreducethecostperkilogramto

orbitbyamonumental50x,openingupspaceforevenmoreusecasesthatpreviouslywerenotcost-effective.WeseecompanieslikeOpenCosmoscreateplatformstosharesatellitedatabetweenorganisationstoreducecosts,improvequality,andincreasethefrequencyofcapture,andweseecompanieslikeLeafSpacebuildgroundstationsandmissioncontrolasaserviceforspacecraftlaunchesandoperationstooutsourceitfromtheoperators.

Sources:UnitedNationsOfficeforOuterSpaceAffairs,OrbitingNow

GPBUIhound

16PREDICTION3PRIVATESECTORTOSPEARHEAD

SPACEREVITALISATION

THEOUTSETOFANEWERA

Allthisconsidered,weareattheoutsetofaneweraforspace.Thenumberofsatelliteslaunchedintospacewillcontinuetoincreaseyearafteryear–especiallyonceSpaceX’sStarshipisoperational.Thenumberofcompaniesinthespaceindu