IMF-移動(dòng)貨幣、對(duì)現(xiàn)金的感知和金融包容性：從烏干達(dá)微觀層面的數(shù)據(jù)中學(xué)習(xí)（英）

MobileMoney,PerceptionaboutCash,andFinancialInclusion

LearningfromUganda’sMicro-LevelData

FélixF.Simione,TaraMuehlschlegel

WP/23/238

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progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2023

NOV

NAr

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*TheauthorswouldliketothankparticipantsintheIMFAfricanDepartmentseminarheldonJune28,2023,theIMF’scountryteamforUganda,thetworeviewersfromtheResearchAdvisoryGroupintheIMFAfricanDepartment,andthereviewerfromtheIMFResearchDepartmentforthehelpfulcommentsprovidedonanearlierversionofthispaper.

?2023InternationalMonetaryFund

WP/23/238

IMFWorkingPaper

AfricanDepartment

MobileMoney,PerceptionaboutCash,andFinancialInclusion:

LearningfromUganda’sMicro-LevelData

PreparedbyFélixF.Simione,TaraMuehlschlegel*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyPabloLopezMurphy

November2023

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:WillmobilemoneyrendercashlessdominantovertimeinAfrica?Canitpromotefinancial

inclusion?Weshedlightonthesequestionsbyexploringindividual-levelandnationallyrepresentativesurveydataforUganda,acountryinaregionthatpioneeredmobilemoneyintheworld.WeusethePropensityScoreMatchingmethodtorobustlycomparemobilemoneyusersandnon-usersacrossarangeofindicatorsthat

captureindividuals’perceptionsaboutcash,andtheextenttowhichtheyremit,save,andborrowmoney.Wepresentthefirstevidencethatmobilemoneyusers,comparedtonon-users,aremorelikelytoperceivecashas

riskyandlesslikelytoprefercarryinglargeamountsofcash.Wealsoconfirmthatmobilemoneyusersaremorelikelytoreceiveandsendremittances,save,andborrow.Theyalsosaveandborrowlargeramounts.

JELClassificationNumbers:

O1;O3

Keywords:

DevelopingCountry;Innovation;DigitalDivide

Author’sE-MailAddress:

FSimione@,

Tmuehlschlegel@

WORKINGPAPERS

MobileMoney,PerceptionaboutCash,andFinancialInclusion:

LearningfromUganda’sMicro-LevelData

PreparedbyFélixF.Simione,TaraMuehlschlegel1

1TheauthorswouldliketothankparticipantsintheIMFAfricanDepartmentseminarheldonJune28,2023,theIMF’scountryteamforUganda,thetworeviewersfromtheResearchAdvisoryGroupintheIMFAfricanDepartment,andthereviewerfromtheIMFResearchDepartmentforthehelpfulcommentsprovidedonanearlierversionofthispaper.

IMFWORKINGPAPERSMobileMoney,PerceptionaboutCash,andFinancialInclusion

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Contents

1.Introduction

5

2.Data

7

2.1Descriptivestatistics

8

2.2Mobilemoneyfacts

12

3.EmpiricalStrategy

16

3.1Modelspecification

16

3.2Addressingendogeneity

16

Step1:PSMdesign

16

Step2:Matching

17

Step3:Balance

17

4.Results

17

4.1SampleBalance

17

4.2DeterminantsofMobileMoneyAdoption

19

4.3ImpactofMoneyUsageonPerceptionsaboutCash

20

4.4ImpactofMobileMoneyonRemittances,Savings,andBorrowing

21

5.Robustness

23

6.ConclusionandPolicyImplications

26

References

27

FIGURES

Figure1.Uganda:Valueofmobilemoneytransactions

5

Figure2.Sub-SaharanAfrica:Valueofmobilemoneytransactions

5

Figure3.Perceptionsaboutmobilemoney

12

Figure4.Proportionofindividualswithaccesstobankaccountsinruralandurbanregions

14

Figure5.Proportionofmobilemoneyusersinruralandurbanregions

14

Figure6.DistributionofPropensityScores

19

Figure7.CommonSupportAreaofPropensityScores

19

TABLES

Table1.MobileMoneyAdoption-SelectedIndicators,Uganda 9

Table2.MobileMoneyAdoptionandSelectedIndicators,Uganda 11

Table3.TestofBalanceonCovariates,Uganda 18

Table4.DeterminantsofMobileMoneyAdoption 20

Table5.ImpactofMobileMoneyonBehaviorTowardsCash 21

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Table6.ImpactofMobileMoneyontheLikelihoodtoSendandReceiveRemittances,Save,andBorrow

22

Table7.ImpactofMobileMoneyontheValueofSavings,Borrowing,andRemittances 23

Table8.ImpactofMobileMoneyonRemittances(ReverseCausalityControlled) 24

Table9.ImpactofMobileMoneyonBehaviorTowardsCash-FalsificationTest 25

Table10.ImpactofMobileMoneyontheLikelihoodtoReceiveandSendRemittances,Save,andBorrow

-FalsificationTest 25

Table11.ImpactofMobileMoneyontheValueofSavingsandBorrowing-FalsificationTest 25

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1.Introduction

Thedebateaboutthefutureofcashhasrecentlyintensifiedastechnologyinnovationsinthefinancialsector

acceleratedigitalpaymentsandcreationofnew,digitalformsofmoney.Severalcountrieshaveembraced

initiativestowardscashlessorcash-lightpayments.InSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA),mobilemoneytransactionshavedominatedthelistofdigitalpaymentinnovations.Theseinnovationsholdthepotentialtoalterindividuals’behaviortowardscash.Infact,someneuroscienceresearchshowsthatconsumers'purchaseintentionsand

pleasuredifferwithregardstowhethertheymakecashormobilepayments(Maetal.,2021;Runnemarketal.,2015).Ontheotherhand,thereiswidespreadexpectationthatdigitalpaymentinnovations,suchasmobile

money,willhelpfosterfinancialinclusion,particularlyindevelopingcountries.Willdigitalmoneyleadto

decliningpreferenceforcash?Willithelppromotefinancialinclusion?WeexplorethesequestionswithfocusonmobilemoneyadoptioninUganda.

TwocharacteristicsmakeUgandaarelevantcasestudy.First,UgandaisintheEastAfricaregion,which

pioneeredthemobilemoneyrevolutionintheworld.Second,thecountryhasregisteredasteadygrowthinthepenetrationofmobilemoneysinceitsinceptionin2009(Figure1).Asaresult,thevalueofmobilemoney

transactionsaccountedfor94percentofGDPin2021,oneofthehighestpenetrationratesinAfrica(Figure2).

Figure1.Uganda:Valueofmobilemoneytransactions

(PercentofGDP),2009-2021

Figure2.Sub-SaharanAfrica:Valueofmobilemoneytransactions

(PercentofGDP),2021

Source:IMFFinancialAccessSurvey

Somehypothesessuggestthatdigitalinnovationswillrendercashlessdominantinfinancialtransactionsovertimeongroundsthatcashis“dirty”(i.e.,pronetoillegalactivities),heavy,expensive,unsafe,andobsolete,

whiledigitalpaymentsareregardedas“clean”,traceable,safe,technologicallyadvanced,cheap,and

convenient(Drehmannetal.,2002).Itshouldbenotedthatdigitalpaymentsystemsalsoentailrisksrelatedtoprivacy,consumerprotection,fraud,networkfailure,andothers(Levitin,2018).Ontheotherhand,thereis

emergingbutinconclusiveevidencesuggestingthatdigitalpaymentsstrengthentheeffectivenessofmonetary

policybyincreasingitstransmissiontoretailinterestrates(Erelatal.,2023)ortomobilemoneydepositbalancesasonestudyfoundinUganda(MawejjeandLakuma,2019).

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Whilesomestudiesacknowledgeongoingsubstitutionawayfromcash,theyhaveshownskepticismtotheendofcashhypothesis.Forexample,Drehmannetal(2002),exploringasampleofdevelopedcountries,findthattheexpansionofcreditanddebitcardusagereducedcashusagebylittle,andthatthesubstitutioneffectwaslimitedpartlybecausetheavailabilityofATMsmadecashmoreattractive.Theyfurtherarguethat,duetobadbehaviorsuchasillegalactivitiesoftenpaidforincash,cashmaynotdisappearatall.

AnotherstudybyHumphrey(2004)concludesthat,whilecreditanddebitcardsreplacedsomecashinthe

UnitedStates,cashisnotprojectedtodisappearanytimesoon.Italsofindsthat,althoughtheexpansionof

ATMshasmadeiteasiertoobtaincash,theevengreaterexpansionofcardterminalsatthepointofsaleare

thedrivingforcebehindthereplacementofcashbycardsduringthe1990s.Alongthesameline,Bechand

Faruqui(2018),usingcross-countrydataforadvancedandemergingmarketeconomies,findthatdespite

increaseduseofelectronicpayments,thereislittleevidenceofsubstitutionawayfromcash.Otherresearchersfoundstrongerevidenceofsubstitution,howevermoreaccentuatedforlowdenominationnotesandcoinsthanforhighdenominationones,suggestingthathighdenominationnotesareusedfornon-transactionalpurposessuchasstoreofvalue(eg.AmrominandChakravorti2007).Similarly,Tarlin(2021)findsthat,whiletheuseof

cashasamediumofexchangehasdeclined,currencyincirculationhasremainedsteady,suggestingcontinueddemandforcashasastoreofvalue.

Otherrecentresearchislesshesitantaboutthedecliningroleofcash.Forexample,inhisTheFutureofMoneybookreleasedin2021,EswarPrasadforeseesthatitisjustamatteroftimebeforecashrecedesinimportanceanddigitalpaymenttechnologiestakeover.Alongthesameline,Brunnermeieretal.(2021)arguethatcash

coulddisappear,andpaymentscouldcenterarounddigitalplatformsratherthanbanks'creditprovision.

Mostofthestudiesreferredtoearlierfocusonadvancedeconomies.EvidencefromSSAremainsscant,althoughtheregionleadstheworldintermsofadoptionofmobilemoney.Itisthereforeimportantto

understandtowhatextenttheunprecedentedexpansionofmobilemoneyinSSAhasledto,orcouldpotentiallyleadto,adeclininguseofcash.

Withregardstotheimpactofmobilemoneyonfinancialinclusion,thereareconsiderablestudiesfocusingon

Africa.Mostassesstheimpactofmobilemoneyonconsumptionsmoothing,remittances,risksharing,savings,andfinancialinclusion.Forexample,JackandSuri(2014),exploringhouseholdsurveydatainKenya,findthatshocksreduceconsumptionby7percentfornon-usersofmobilemoney,whileconsumptionisunaffectedfor

users.Theyshowthatthepositiveconsumptioneffectsforusersaredrivenbyincreasesinremittances

receivedandthediversityofsenders.SimilarfindingsarereportedforUgandabyMunyegeraandMatsumoto(2014)usinghouseholdandcommunitysurveys.AbionaandKoppensteiner(2018)alsofindsimilarresultsforTanzania.Theyfindthat,duringshocks,householdsusingmobilemoneyareabletosmoothconsumptionandmaintaintheirinvestmentsinhumancapital.

Otherstudieshavefocusedontheimpactofmobilemoneyonaccesstofinance,productivity,andinvestment.Okelloetal.(2018),usinghouseholddatafromUganda,findthatmobilemoneypositivelyimpactsfinancial

inclusion,andthattheeffectisreinforcedbysocialnetworks.Kyetal.(2018),exploringindividual-levelsurveydatafromBurkinaFaso,findthatmobilemoneyusageseemstoincreasethepropensityofindividualstosaveforhealthemergencies.Gosavi(2018),exploringfirm-leveldataineasternAfrica,findsthatfirmsusingmobilemoneyaremorelikelytoobtainloansorlinesofcredit,andaremoreproductivethanotherfirms.Anearlier

studybyJackandSuri(2013)alsofindsthatmobilemoneyusersinKenyahaveintegratedmorefullyintothefinancialsystemthroughlargerandmorefrequentfinancialtransactionscomparedtonon-users.Apiorsand

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Suzuki(2018),usingsurveydatafromGhana,findthatthatmobilemoneyusersaremorelikelytosavehigheramounts,investmoreineducation,microbusinesses,land,andbuildings,inadditiontoconsumingmore.

Wearenotawareofanystudythatinvestigatedtheimpactofmobilemoneyonperceptionsaboutcashin

Africa.ThispaperundertakessuchinvestigationwithapplicationtoUganda.ByfocusingonUganda,thepaperaddressesimportantgapsintheempiricalliterature.First,asnotedearlier,thereisverylimitedresearchfromSSAontherelationshipbetweendigitalmoneyanddemandforcash(Ahmadetal.2020).Second,tomeasuredigitalmoneypenetration,existingstudiesinadvancedandemergingmarketeconomiesfocusmostlyonthe

usageofdebitandcreditcards.ThesearenotasrelevantinSSAwheremobilemoneydominates.Third,thefewstudiesinSSAthathaveassessedtheimpactoffinancialtechnologyonthedemandforcashhave

addressedtheissuefromamacro-levelperspective(eg.MlamboandMsosa2020;Kombeetal.2020;

MawejjeandLakuma2019).Nonehasconductedtheempiricalanalysisfromamicro-levelperspectiveusingsurveydata.Surveydata,inadditiontobebettersuitedforstudyingpreferencesandbehavior,allowforlargersamples(comprisingover3,000individualsinourcase)andhencemorereliableempiricalestimations.

Thefindingsshowthatmobilemoneyusers,comparedtonon-users,aremorelikelytoperceivecashasrisky,andlesslikelytoprefercarryinglargeamountsofcash.Mobilemoneyusersarealsomorelikelytoremitandreceivemoney,andtheysaveandborrowmore.Theestimationmethodologyusedinthepaper,robustness

analysis,andafalsificationtesthelpreducepotentialconcernsaboutselectionbiasandreversecausality.

Theremainderofthepaperisasfollows.Section2summarizesthedataandthekeyfeaturesofthesurveyexploredinthepaper.Section3discussestheempiricalstrategy.Section4presentstheresults.Section5discussestherobustnessoftheestimates,andSection6concludes.

2.Data

Weusedatafromthe2018UgandaFinScopeSurveywhichwascommissionedbyFinancialSectorDeepening

Uganda(FSDUganda).FinScopesurveysseektotracktrendsinfinancialinclusionandproviderelatedpolicyinsights,andtheyhavebeenconductedinseveralcountriesinAfricaandotherregionsoverthelasttwo

decades.Withsomeexceptions,thequestionsinthesurveytypicallyrequirea“yes/no”answerandhencetheresultsshouldbereadasapercentageornumberofadultpopulationwhohave,useorpossessafinancial

productorserviceorhaveaparticularvariableofinterest.

FinScopesurveysemployagloballyacceptedandcredibleprocessofcollectingandanalyzingdata.The

UgandaFinScopesurveyemployedathree-stagestratifiedsamplingapproachtoarriveatanationally

representativesampleofindividualsaged16yearsandolder(FinancialSectorDeepeningUganda,2018).Inthefirststageofsampling,geographicrepresentationwasensuredbyselecting320enumerationareas(EAs)usingaprobabilityproportionaltosize,ensuringnational,regional,andurban-ruralrepresentativeness.Inthesecondstage,10householdswereselectedrandomlyineachEA.Inthefinalstage,oneadult(i.e.,an

individual16yearsorolder)wasselectedrandomlyfromeachoftheselectedhouseholdstobeinterviewed.

Asrecommendedbythesurveydevelopers,ourempiricalestimatesdiscussedlatertakeexplicitlyintoaccountthestructureofthesurveydesignbyusingtheappropriateindividualweightsprovidedwiththedataset.1This

1AsourempiricalanalysisisconductedinStata,thesvysetcommandisemployedtoaccountforthesurveydesign.

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ensuresthatourfindingscanbeinterpretedasnationallyrepresentativeoftheUgandanadultpopulation

estimatedat18.6millionatthetime.PreviousFinScopesurveysforUgandawereconductedin2006,2009and2013.Weusethe2018surveybecause,inadditiontobeingthemostrecent,itintroducedquestionsonkey

variables—mobilemoneyusage,perceptionsaboutcash—thatareamongthekeysubjectsofthispaper.

2.1Descriptivestatistics

Table1providesasummaryofthedatafocusingonrelevantvariablesforthispaper.

Mobilemoneyusage.Ourmeasureofmobilemoneyadoptionbuildsonthefollowingyes/nosurveyquestion:“haveyouusedmobilemoneyinthepast12months?”Weclassifyindividualsas“mobilemoneyusers”iftheiransweris“yes”,regardlessofwhethertheyownthemobilephoneornot.AsreportedinTable1,about53

percentoftheindividualsreportedtohaveusedmobilemoney.Ofthose,themajority(44percent)usedmobilemoneylessthanonceamonth,17percentuseditonceaweek,and3.2percentuseditdaily.

Perceptionaboutphysicalcash.Ourmeasureofperceptionaboutcashbuildsonrelatedyes/noopinions

abouttwostatementsinthesurvey:(1)“cashisrisky”;and(2)“Idislikecarryinglargeamountsofcash”.For

eachofthesestatementsweconstructadummyvariablesuchthatittakesthevalue1iftheansweris“yes”,

and0otherwise.AsshowninTable1,about69percentofrespondentsperceivecashasriskierthancardsandmachines,and73percentdislikescarryinglargeamountsofcash.

Backgroundcharacteristics.Wealsoextractfromthesurveybackgroundcharacteristicsofindividuals,

includingage,gender,maritalstatus,phoneownership,educationalattainment,urban/rurallocation,accesstoabank,amongothers.Whilenotexhaustive,thisinformationallowsustocontrolforimportantconfoundersintheeconometricestimatesdiscussedlater.About52percentoftherespondentsownamobilephone.Womenaccountforabout54percentoftherespondents.Mostrespondentshavecompletedprimaryeducation(42

percent),whilelessthan3percentoftherespondentshaveauniversitydegree.About76percentliveinruralareasandonlyabout10percentreportedtohaveaccesstoabankaccount.

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Table1.MobileMoneyAdoption-SelectedIndicators,Uganda

(Thedataisdescribedaspercentofthesample,unlessotherwiseindicated)

Percentofsample

Mobilemoneyadoptionandremittances

Obvservations

Ownsmobilephone51.6

3,002

Usedmobilemoneyinthepast12months

Daily*

Onceaweek*

53.23.2

17.4

2,830

Severaltimesamonthbutnotweekly*26.3

Lessthanonceamonth*43.5

Sentremittancesinthepast12months38.1

2,835

Receivedremittancesinthepast12months43.9

2,835

Behaviortowardscash

Prefertopayincashbecauseeveryoneusescash82.4

2,716

Cashisriskierthancardsandmachines68.8

2,392

Dislikescarryingcash73.2

2,766

Backgroundcharacteristics

Female53.8

2,999

Age(years,average)36.0

2,999

Completedsecondaryeducation7.9

2,994

Completeduniversity2.9

2,994

Completedprimaryeducation42.4

2,994

Married65.0

3,002

Rural76.1

3,002

Hasaccesstoabankaccount10.4

3,002

*PercentofrespondentswhousedMMinpast12months.

Source:FinScopeUganda2018;andauthors'calculations.

Table2providessimilarandfurtherstatistics,nowcontrastingmobilemoneyuserstonon-users.Ownershipofmobilephoneishigheramongmobilemoneyusers(81.8percent)thanamongnon-users(18.4percent).Whilethisisnotsurprisingbecauseaccesstoamobilephoneisnecessarytousemobilemoney,itisimportantto

notethatindividualsareabletousemobilemoneyevenwithoutowningamobilephone.2Onaverage,mobile

2Phoneownershipandmobilemoneyusagearedistinctvariables.Anindividualcanusemobilemoneywithoutowningamobilephone.InAfrica,itisnotuncommonforindividualstoborrowsomeoneelse’sphonetoreceiveortransferfunds.

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moneyusersareabout4yearsyoungerthannon-users.Theyalsopossesshighereducationalattainment.Forexample,thecompletionofprimaryanduppersecondaryschoolingishigheramongmobilemoneyusers(62.3and15.1percent)thanamongnon-users(22and1.1percent),respectively.Thereisalsoagenderandincomeimbalance.Thepercentageofwomenisloweramongmobilemoneyusers(62.4percent)thanamongnon-

users(69percent),whileaverageincomeismuchhigherformobilemoneyusersthannon-users.

Financialbehaviorandperceptionaboutcashalsoseemsensitivetomobilemoneyusage.Thepercentageofpeoplewhoborrow,save,send,andreceivemoneyismuchhigheramongmobilemoneyusersthanamong

non-users.Thepercentageofpeoplewhoprefertomakepaymentsincashisloweramongmobilemoney

usersthanamongnon-users.Consistently,thepercentageofindividualswhoperceivecashasriskyanddislikecarryingcashishigheramongmobilemoneyusersthanamongnon-users.Thesedifferencesarehighly

statisticallysignificantasshownbyverylowpvaluesinthelastcolumnofTable2.However,additional

analysisisneededtoattributethesedifferencestomobilemoneyusage.WediscussthisinSection3wherewelayoutourempiricalstrategy.

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Table2.MobileMoneyAdoptionandSelectedIndicators,Uganda

(Thedataisreportedinpercentofeachsubgroup,unlessotherwiseindicated)

Backgroundcharacteristics

Ownsmobilephone

MMUsers

(N=1516)

81.8

33.7

62.3

15.1

5.8

62.4

65.1

60.4

17.7

5.5

Non-Users

(N=1314)

p-valueofdiff

18.4

37.6

22.0

1.1

0.0

69.0

62.6

85.5

1.7

1.8

0.000***

0.000***

0.000***

0.000***

0.000***

0.001***

0.172

0.001***

0.001***

0.000***

Age(years,CompletedCompletedCompletedFemale

Married

Rural

average)

primaryeducation

secondaryeducation

university

Acesstoabankaccount

Annualincome(inmillionUgandanShilling)

Financialbehavior

Borrowsmoney

Savesmoney

Sendsmoney

Receivesmoney

Behaviortowardscash

Preferstopayincash1

Perceivescashasrisky2

Dislikescash3

Prefersface-to-facebanking4

48.8

60.2

67.8

78.6

81.8

73.7

77.9

75.7

35.8

39.5

5.1

6.9

86.1

63.2

68.5

82.3

0.000***

0.000***

0.000***

0.000***

0.001***

0.000***

0.000***

0.000***

***,**and*denotesthatthedifferenceisstatisticallysignificantat1,5and10percentlevel,respectively.

1/N=1474forMMusersand2/N=1363forMMusersand3/N=1499forMMusersand4/N=1450forMMusersand

N=1237fornon-users

N=1024fornon-users

N=1262fornon-users

N=1177fornon-users

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2.2Mobilemoney,financialinclusion,andretailpaymentfactsinUganda

ThissectiondocumentssomestatisticsaboutmobilemoneyinUgandaasitconstitutesanimportant

backgroundfortheresearchquestionsweexploreinthepaper.Wealsopr